Players Potential

Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 03:29 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

For 2016 I think we all want to see the Jays with guys at every position who could be the best in the game at that position. Especially with the pitching issues. So where do we see it and where could the Jays use a Tulo upgrade?

Using B-R WAR to get a range of potential, best and worst seasons 300+ PA for hitters. Remember, 2 WAR is seen as a regular, 5 as an All-Star, 8+ as an MVP. 50+ IP for starters, 25 for relievers

CA: Martin: 1.7 to 5.6, over 5 twice (2014/2007), 6 more times over 2.
1B: Smoak: -0.3 to 1.3, over 1 only twice (2013/2015) so upgrade could be very useful here
2B: Travis: 2.4 WAR in his only ML playing time (62 games) over 150 that would be 5.8 so he has the potential.
3B: Donaldson: 7.3 to 8.8 (last year). He had 2 partial seasons as well, 1.5 in just shy of 300 PA. 'Nuff said
SS: Tulowitzki: 0.8 to 6.8. Over 5 6 times, over 2 7 times (2.9 last year). Just one full season below 2.
LF: Revere: 0.7 to 2.6, over 2 twice (last year and 2012). Meh.
LF: Saunders: 0.7 to 2.4, over 2 twice, below it twice. Meh and recovering from injury
CF: Pillar: 5.2 in his only full season. Sweet.
RF: Bautista: -1.1 to 8.1, over 5 4 times, over 8 once, 7 times over 2 all his years here, except for his partial first (negative WAR that year).
DH: Encarnacion: 0.6 to 5.0, reached 5 just once, over 2 4 times- his best 4 years are the latest 4

Backup: Colabelo has his first positive WAR year at 0.7 last year (he is a pure DH), Carerra has never reached 1.0 (-0.9 last year), Goins was 2.7 last year and positive every year (great D helps). Pompey was 0.7 last year (see great D).

So ASG potential at CA/2B/3B/SS/CF/RF/DH only LF & 1B are weak but not disasters, 1B being the weakest.

Dickey: 0.1 to 5.8, over 5 once (Cy year), 6 times over 2 including all 3 years here.
Estrada: 0.4 to 3.6, over 2 once (last year)
Stroman: 2.0 and 1.3 (over 30 starts that 1.3 would've been 9.8 yeah he was hot).
Sanchez: 1.5, 1.7 his two seasons, mostly due to relief. Just 33 IP season 1.
Hutchison: -1.7 to 1.5, negative was last year.
Osuna: 1.7 last year all in relief
Hendriks: 0.9 last year was his first over 0.

Not much for hope there outside of Dickey & Estrada & Stroman. Sanchez and Hutch have looked decent at times as did Osuna but none have done enough to give any confidence.

Pen... (not repeating Sanchez/Osuna/Hundriks)
Cecil: -0.3 to 2.1, cracking 2 only in 2010 as a starter. 5 times over 1.
Loup: -0.2 to 1.5 his only negative was last year
Schultz, Tepera: just one year each under 0.5 WAR each.
Delabar: -0.4 to 0.6, worst year was last year.

Again, nothing to make one feel confident. Again, not a shock to anyone here. WAR isn't best for measuring relievers but one hopes for something positive to pop out for one of the 5 guys.

Clearly a batch of new pitchers will be here in spring with good shots at making the team. I didn't list Price or other free agents as I didn't see the point since we have no idea who they will play with next year.

In the end the Jays options are find some ASG potential starters/relievers or super-size the offense at LF/1B luckily there are options at both this winter if the Jays are willing to open up the wallet. More backups who play defense than Goins & Pompey would be nice, Colabello is nice as a pinch hitter/DH but nothing else. Saunders will not be offered a contract I'm sure, then they'll try to sign him to a AAA deal to recover with a good ML salary if he makes the team. Revere I could see being traded if the Jays feel they have a lock on a high end replacement.

As a person who enjoys video game baseball I'd love to see the Jays blow the wad on LF & 1B then score 10+ more often than anyone else ever has. They also might lose more when allowing 10+ than anyone else has but at least it'd be entertaining in a mid 90's Coors Field fashion. 1,220 is the record (Boston NL 1894) 1067 the AL record (NYY 1931). Jays scored 891 last year.