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For 2016 I think we all want to see the Jays with guys at every position who could be the best in the game at that position. Especially with the pitching issues. So where do we see it and where could the Jays use a Tulo upgrade?

Using B-R WAR to get a range of potential, best and worst seasons 300+ PA for hitters. Remember, 2 WAR is seen as a regular, 5 as an All-Star, 8+ as an MVP. 50+ IP for starters, 25 for relievers

CA: Martin: 1.7 to 5.6, over 5 twice (2014/2007), 6 more times over 2.
1B: Smoak: -0.3 to 1.3, over 1 only twice (2013/2015) so upgrade could be very useful here
2B: Travis: 2.4 WAR in his only ML playing time (62 games) over 150 that would be 5.8 so he has the potential.
3B: Donaldson: 7.3 to 8.8 (last year). He had 2 partial seasons as well, 1.5 in just shy of 300 PA. 'Nuff said
SS: Tulowitzki: 0.8 to 6.8. Over 5 6 times, over 2 7 times (2.9 last year). Just one full season below 2.
LF: Revere: 0.7 to 2.6, over 2 twice (last year and 2012). Meh.
LF: Saunders: 0.7 to 2.4, over 2 twice, below it twice. Meh and recovering from injury
CF: Pillar: 5.2 in his only full season. Sweet.
RF: Bautista: -1.1 to 8.1, over 5 4 times, over 8 once, 7 times over 2 all his years here, except for his partial first (negative WAR that year).
DH: Encarnacion: 0.6 to 5.0, reached 5 just once, over 2 4 times- his best 4 years are the latest 4

Backup: Colabelo has his first positive WAR year at 0.7 last year (he is a pure DH), Carerra has never reached 1.0 (-0.9 last year), Goins was 2.7 last year and positive every year (great D helps). Pompey was 0.7 last year (see great D).

So ASG potential at CA/2B/3B/SS/CF/RF/DH only LF & 1B are weak but not disasters, 1B being the weakest.

Dickey: 0.1 to 5.8, over 5 once (Cy year), 6 times over 2 including all 3 years here.
Estrada: 0.4 to 3.6, over 2 once (last year)
Stroman: 2.0 and 1.3 (over 30 starts that 1.3 would've been 9.8 yeah he was hot).
Sanchez: 1.5, 1.7 his two seasons, mostly due to relief. Just 33 IP season 1.
Hutchison: -1.7 to 1.5, negative was last year.
Osuna: 1.7 last year all in relief
Hendriks: 0.9 last year was his first over 0.

Not much for hope there outside of Dickey & Estrada & Stroman. Sanchez and Hutch have looked decent at times as did Osuna but none have done enough to give any confidence.

Pen... (not repeating Sanchez/Osuna/Hundriks)
Cecil: -0.3 to 2.1, cracking 2 only in 2010 as a starter. 5 times over 1.
Loup: -0.2 to 1.5 his only negative was last year
Schultz, Tepera: just one year each under 0.5 WAR each.
Delabar: -0.4 to 0.6, worst year was last year.

Again, nothing to make one feel confident. Again, not a shock to anyone here. WAR isn't best for measuring relievers but one hopes for something positive to pop out for one of the 5 guys.

Clearly a batch of new pitchers will be here in spring with good shots at making the team. I didn't list Price or other free agents as I didn't see the point since we have no idea who they will play with next year.

In the end the Jays options are find some ASG potential starters/relievers or super-size the offense at LF/1B luckily there are options at both this winter if the Jays are willing to open up the wallet. More backups who play defense than Goins & Pompey would be nice, Colabello is nice as a pinch hitter/DH but nothing else. Saunders will not be offered a contract I'm sure, then they'll try to sign him to a AAA deal to recover with a good ML salary if he makes the team. Revere I could see being traded if the Jays feel they have a lock on a high end replacement.

As a person who enjoys video game baseball I'd love to see the Jays blow the wad on LF & 1B then score 10+ more often than anyone else ever has. They also might lose more when allowing 10+ than anyone else has but at least it'd be entertaining in a mid 90's Coors Field fashion. 1,220 is the record (Boston NL 1894) 1067 the AL record (NYY 1931). Jays scored 891 last year.
Players Potential | 72 comments | Create New Account
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Mike Green - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 04:32 PM EST (#315269) #
Oops.  HDMH.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 05:30 PM EST (#315270) #
Did we trade Stroman? Because I thought you were talking about 2016!
John Northey - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 05:40 PM EST (#315271) #
Doh - major brain fart there. Fixed. I'll blame it on the baby :)
China fan - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 05:43 PM EST (#315273) #
One of my biggest concerns is at catcher.  I've argued that the Jays should sign Navarro to a new contract -- and not just because of his brilliance in catching Estrada.  Without him, the Jays are highly vulnerable to a Martin injury.  If Martin is injured, and there's no Navarro, the Jays are stuck with... what, Thole and Jimenez?  Or some other cast-off?  There's a huge drop-off from Navarro's OPS of .682 last season to Thole's OPS of .495.   (The contrast is equally extreme if you consider the last 4 seasons, not just 2015.)  To replace an injured Martin with Thole, instead of with Navarro, is a massive hit to that lineup position.  The ideal solution is to have 3 catchers available:  Martin, Navarro and Thole.   (The Jays should try to sneak Thole through waivers -- the odds are that nobody will claim him -- and then stash him in Buffalo to keep him available for those weeks when Martin needs a break from catching Dickey.)  There's still no indication that Jimenez is a solution:  his OPS at the AAA level over 3 seasons is just .632.   Even discounting for his injuries and his relatively young age in his first AAA seasons, it's hard to squint at those numbers and see Jimenez as being major-league-ready in any sense except perhaps defensively.  And he's the only other catcher on the 40-man roster.  So if the Jays don't sign Navarro, they should probably try to acquire another catcher who is as good as Navarro -- which might not be easy.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 06:06 PM EST (#315274) #
Considering that Martin gives you at best 65% each week because of the strain of catching Dickey regularly. Without that duty, he'll be closer to 95% consistently when healthy, and healthier because he's not catching Dickey. Josh Thole has hit fairly well when he assumes regular playing time (which he's never had here) in the past, so I assume he will do so here if necessary. Toronto's biggest weakness is who gets called up if Martin goes down, because what we have in the minors right now is not good enough.

If I have my choice, Thole catches Dickey and Martin does it as a last resort. Spending money on Navarro or improving the Bullpen is the choice. I think the present Bullpen is not good enough. Bye, bye Navarro.
jensan - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 08:49 PM EST (#315277) #
The community indicates that the Russell is worn out due to Dickey.
Solution sign two pitchers.
1. Happ- 2/20
2. Trade Pillar + Nay for Danny Salazar
That means the team is at$130 MM.
TRADE Dickey+Thole+ Smoak+ Delabar for Shields + Norris. No more discussion about Thole or Navarro. Total Payroll-$137.5MM
Sal - Tuesday, November 17 2015 @ 10:58 PM EST (#315279) #
Pillar + Nay for Salazar? No way!

Cleveland needs to throw in Lindor and Kluber.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 08:34 AM EST (#315281) #
Hard to imagine the Jays would trade Pillar after that 'wow' season. 5.2 bWAR, 4.3 fWAR so no question he is extremely valuable with that killer defense. Yeah, Pompey might be even better defensively but I can't see the Jays doing a trade of either at this point. Maybe in a year if some other outfield prospects keep improving but not right now.
jerjapan - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 09:55 AM EST (#315286) #
Pillar + Nay for Salazar? No way!

Cleveland needs to throw in Lindor and Kluber.

That made me laugh Sal, but then I took a look at their fWARs for 2015 Pillar was at 4.3, Salazar 3.0, and Pillar is arb eligible one year later (although they have the same number of years of team control?  Not quite sure how that works). 

Steamer likes Salazar more next year, but that trade is way less lopsided than it might appear.  Not sure that Nay has much prospect capital left though. 
stevieboy22 - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 11:10 AM EST (#315288) #
Rich Hill just for 6 million after 4 good starts (and those are the only MLB starts he has made in 5 years)....

I would bet JA Happ gets way north of a 2/20..
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 11:25 AM EST (#315289) #
Hill has always struck out batters, but his control has been an off-again, on-again proposition.  He has always been effective when he is able to throw strikes, which he has sometimes done. He's got an ERA+ of 100 for his 500 major league innings.  Would it shock me if he has found his control and puts up an ERA of under 2.5 in Oakland in 150-200 innings?  Nope.  I'd put the odds of him having a better season than David Price at 10-15%.  Conversely, there's an equal chance that his control is completely gone in 2016 and he puts up an ERA north of 6 in 60 innings and is back in the minors. 
Lylemcr - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 11:45 AM EST (#315290) #
Every time I see that batting lineup, I say to myself... that's crazy. Just a couple tweaks and

I would love to see Revere/Saunders go just to give Pompey a chance. If he got it together, he would be a great leadoff guy.

Is there a Morales out there this year? Maybe Colabello is... Maybe the 1b is in RF? If Saunders is healthy, an OF of Saunders, Pompey and Pillar would be filthy. Anything in the air would be caught.

If that was the OF and Goins was the starting 2B, defensively, the Jays would have to be one of the best teams in baseball.
Sal - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 12:09 PM EST (#315292) #
Yes, Pillar had a great year, but pretty much everyone is expecting a regression. Salazar is a legitimate #2 with great numbers.

Pillar also has the disadvantage of having almost all of his value tied to his defense and base running, which both regress faster and are valued less compared to hitting.

Pillar is worth something, but not a #2 pitcher who strikes out a batter an inning.

As for Nay, he is organization filler at this point.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 12:11 PM EST (#315293) #
Players Potential...

I'm gonna make the call now. Anthony Alford will be a defensive and offensive star CFer - starting in mid-2017.

He's 6'1" 205 pounds (Jose is 6' 205 pounds), he'll turn 22 in mid-July 2016. In 2015 his first season (other than 25 games spread over a couple of years) he was way more "advanced" than was anticipated at this stage of his development. He has "considerable" (as yet) untapped power. Before 2015 his tools were rated: Hit 50, Power 55, Run 70, Arm 55, Field 50 and Overall 55. I strongly suspect many of those are being revised upwards as I write this. His combined line in over 400 at bats, split almost 50/50 between Lansing and Dunedin, was .298. .398, .421, .820.

IF - the Jay's staff agree with this assessment - then it throws a whole new horseshoe into the ring. Clearly, he could be a enticing prospect to be used in a trade - BUT - with Shapiro's statements and the scarcity of very high end position prospects in the organization - I suspect it could put Pillar in play as trade bait rather than Anthony. With Pompey as a very capable defensive replacement now and Alford only a heat beat, and a stones throw, away from the Show - Pillar might be part of a trade for starting pitching. I believe Pillar and Travis could get us a very good starter.

However, that's not a trade I'd happily make. With this being Edwing and Jose's last year under contract (perhaps one might be resigned) - I think an outfield in 2017 of Pompey in left, Pillar in CF and Alford in right (did I mention Alford's arm - it's special and plays very well in right) gives us the best outfield defense in baseball. In addition, I think Travis will become a serious offensive force. Picture a short brick shithouse with at least adequate defense at 2nd and serious contact and power batting skills.

If Rogers could just go to 150 in payroll for at least the next two years I can see them being able to afford two more, at least semi-serious, pitchers and they'd still have Pillar, Alford and Pompey - not to mention Travis and Goins.

sweat - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 12:51 PM EST (#315297) #
If it were me, I would either move or let Revere and Smoak go. EE/Cola and guys needing a day off would play 1b/DH. Pompey, and Goins would fill in for guys getting a day off from the field.
I do think Thole is an easy/cheap choice at catcher, and while that does leave the Jays susceptible to a Martin injury, Martin has been pretty healthy overall. Seems like a reasonable risk to take.

My primary focus would be to add 2 more SP, and an RP. I would start Hutch in the minors with the hope he rediscovers himself.
The Bullpen would be Osuna, Sanchez, Cecil, Hendriks, Loup, Venditte and Jenkins as the long man. Loup or Venditte would both be optioned if another RP was added.
I would wait until 2017 to move Osuna and Sanchez back into the rotation.
There are quite a few decent SP targets out there, with Leake and Samardzija being the best of the second level. Price, Grienke and Zimmerman look to be a little too pricey.
Chen, Kazmir, Gallardo, Young, would all be worthwhile options as well.
jerjapan - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 01:58 PM EST (#315298) #
Congrats to Rich Hill  - from indy ball to a 6 million guaranteed contract at the age of 35.  Score another win for the longshot AAAA guys!

According to blue bird banters options chart, Thole, Jenkins, Delebar and Hague (likely why we picked up Dominguez) are all out of options.  Id say this next season is the best chance for Jenkins  and Delebar to stick with the team - or find a new home.

They also have AJ Jiminez as being out of options, and yet he's never played in the bigs ... can anyone explain this?

uglyone - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 02:10 PM EST (#315299) #
I need some rumours.

or at least some whispers and rumblings.

come on already.
China fan - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 04:03 PM EST (#315301) #
Well. here's some news for those who feel it's too quiet.  Devon Travis has just had shoulder surgery and has been told that he can't have any baseball activity for the next 4 to 5 months.  That includes spring training and the early part of the regular season.   So it looks like Ryan Goins is the starting 2B for April and May at least.  Presumably Travis will need a fair amount of minor-league rehab after he returns.  It's too bad, because he could have contributed to a boost in the team's offensive power at the beginning of the season.  Let's hope he returns stronger than ever after the surgery.

Now who's the back-up utility infielder?  Pennington is gone, and Kawasaki is not a very exciting option.  Is Darwin Barney still available??
uglyone - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 04:17 PM EST (#315305) #
"#BlueJays say Devon Travis had "a pre-existing acromion bone non-union in his shoulder...known as Os Acromiale."

Os acromiale is a failure of fusion of the acromial process. It is usually asymptomatic and discovered by chance. When it is painful a differential diagnosis must be made in relation to the subacromial impingement syndrome.

Unstable os acromiale is the cause of atypical scapulalgias. Stabilization by tension band wiring and an embedded slot shaped graft achieves union and relieves pain.

Patients et methods
This series includes 10 patients mean age 43 years old presenting with shoulder pain resistant to a mean 15 months of conservative treatment. Pain followed trauma in three cases. Three patients had a history of acromioplasty, which had not relieved pain. All had pain during palpation of the superior aspect of the acromion. The diagnosis was confirmed in eight patients by positive results to local injection of the os acromiale. The mean preoperative Constant score was 53.4. The procedure included open reduction and fixation of the acromion by tension band wiring and pinning associated with an embedded iliac crest graft without acromioplasty.

The mean follow-up was 48 months. Pain was relieved in seven cases and all patients had improved and were satisfied. Union of os acromiale was confirmed on CT scan in all patients. The mean Constant score was 82.2.

The role of os acromiale in the origination of pain is confirmed by the efficacy of preoperative injection of the os acromiale and pain relief after achieving union. Moreover, our technique is reliable and always resulted in union of the os acromiale. Internal fixation by tension banding favors minimal upward migration of the os acromiale and union. In case of subacromial impingement syndrome an os acromiale should be looked for, as this condition could deteriorate with simple acromioplasty.

Level of evidence
Level IV retrospective observational study.
mathesond - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 04:37 PM EST (#315308) #
Moving away from the sad Devon Travis news, apparently Twitter is abuzz that the Marlins have made Jose Fernandez available in trade. Twitter being what it is, I make nothing of it - but it is a rumour!
hypobole - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 04:43 PM EST (#315311) #
If the surgery successfully ends Devin's shoulder woes, it's probably good news.

Since we should need a backup MI for only a month of real action, signing a quality defensive minor leaguer makes most sense.
John Northey - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 05:01 PM EST (#315316) #
Now Jose Fernandez would look dang nice in Jays blue. The injury issues the past 2 years hurt but would make him more affordable. The Marlins are infamous for being cheap. Martin Prado makes $11 mil next year ($3 mil paid by Yankees) and plays 2B/3B and can play RF/LF so he'd be a good fill-in for Travis and solid backup at 3B and could move to LF if needed. Odds are the price would be too high in prospects though.
scottt - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 05:16 PM EST (#315320) #
Every player on the 40 roster who spend more than 20 days in the minor use an option, unless they are on the DL the entire time.
jerjapan - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 05:37 PM EST (#315323) #
Thanks Scottt! 

The lack of options for Jiminez makes our minor league catching depth even more problematic.  It would be nice to get a couple of George Kottaras type AAAA vets - the Yanks have been spending (relatively) high amounts for ML FAs for a few years now, and have reaped some marginal value from this approach - it seems like a good way to build depth for our vulnerabilities at catcher and middle IF. 

jensan - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 08:27 PM EST (#315330) #
Pillar was for Salazar
jensan - Wednesday, November 18 2015 @ 08:31 PM EST (#315331) #
Salazar is a #3 with the Indians.
jerjapan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 12:26 AM EST (#315333) #
Jensan, not so sure that number 2 vs number 3 matters, Cleveland has a strong rotation - i just thought that adding Nay into the equation made your trade proposal look odd.  Nay is not worth mentioning, and bringing him up made me think the trade was nutty.

But then I checked out the numbers, and Pillar for Salazar is actually not crazy, although a year ago I would've thought it was.  It's just easier and easier to understand defensive and baserunning value.  But like Sal pointed out, those skills decline sooner.  but pillar has one extra year of team control ...

anyway, i think Pillar + a legit prospect could get Salazar and it would be a fair trade for both teams.  rowdy tellez or better?

not that i want to make that deal ... I want rogers to pony up for free agents.

jensan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 04:46 AM EST (#315335) #
Pillar+ urena. Is a valid trade for Salazar, prefer to keep Rowdy and no more pitching prospects should be traded at this time.
China fan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 06:30 AM EST (#315336) #
I'm opposed to trading Pillar, because I'm not convinced that he has reached his peak.  His value has increased every year.  He has consistently surpassed our expectations and predictions.  He has an incredible work ethic and determination, which have already made him one of the top defensive outfielders in the majors (which none of us had predicted).  He's already a 4.3 WAR player (per Fangraphs) at a bargain-basement salary.  His focus now is on improving his hitting, and I don't see why we should bet against him on that.  In fact his hitting has consistently improved at the major-league level since his debut, and I think he can continue on that track.  He had flashes of hitting brilliance for significant stretches of the 2015 season.  We shouldn't assume that he can't continue to improve.  He's at a premium position, and those players are hard to find (no matter how much optimism we might have about Pompey).  Even if he doesn't improve his hitting, he is a valuable player at a bargain salary, and I don't think he should be traded until we are certain that he has reached his peak.  Sure, it's fine to say that we should "sell high" on players who have peaked, but in Pillar's case we would be gambling twice:  we would be gambling that his hitting can't improve, and we would be gambling that Pompey is an acceptable replacement at CF.  There are other ways to acquire starting pitchers, rather than trading Pillar.
Glevin - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 07:46 AM EST (#315337) #
WAR is a very useful but not perfect quick glance stats to see what a player's value was in a given year/lifetime. In determining trade value, it's less useful and the way many online posters use WAR to evaluate trades is completely unrealistic. (Player X was worth 2 WAR so we can trade him for player Y who was worth 2 WAR).

WAR is not equal. Teams don't value either in $ or in prospects defense especially from non C/SS the way they view offense. Part of this is fair. Defense is much harder to quantify and defensive statistics are simply not as accurate or reliable as offensive ones (and are much more volatile.) I also think teams believe they can get top defensive players more easily than they can get big bats which is probably true.

I wouldn't look to trade Pillar because I don't think anyone would give you close to 4.3 WAR of value for him and he's still young and cheap. I don't really see a lot of room for growth in his offense because he simply doesn't have a lot of power and he doesn't walk but he's a good enough player as is that he doesn't need to improve those numbers to significantly contribute.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 08:55 AM EST (#315341) #
"I wouldn't look to trade Pillar because I don't think anyone would give you close to 4.3 WAR of value for him and he's still young and cheap."

Exactly right. Trading Pillar makes very little sense for the reason mentioned above. Even if he puts up the 2.7 WAR that Steamer is projecting for him next season, that's still a significant surplus of value given that he's making peanuts. The chances of acquiring a similar valued talent for someone with his skill set is not very high. The Jays are better off keeping him until he gets expensive and/or his defense begins to slip. He's someone you might consider moving during his arbitration years in his late-20's, not now.
Beyonder - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 09:47 AM EST (#315343) #
Wouldn't it make more sense if the pitcher being shopped by Cleveland was Carrasco? He's the name we heard being tossed out there at the trade deadline this past season. I can't think of a reason why Cleveland would want to part with Salazar.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 09:54 AM EST (#315344) #
I think that Pillar does have room for growth offensively.  He hit .300+ at every stop in the minors.  He's had a significant adjustment process to the major leagues, but there were positive signs in the second half of last year.  His K rate dropped to 10% and his walk rate held.  He continued to hit line drives and the occasional home run, but his too-high pop-up rate led to a .278 batting average.  There were fewer wild swings and misses in the second half, but still too many pop-ups.  It is probably easier to learn to foul off a few more of the ones he is popping up than it is to avoid the wild swings and misses.

Pillar will be 27 years old next year, and if ever he was going to have a .300/40 double/15 homer/40 walk year, 2016 would be a prime candidate.  His BBRef age comps (who were all far inferior defensively) include Alex Ochoa, Leon Roberts, Pat Sheridan, Mike Vail and Marlon Byrd.  All of them went on to put up some good offensive seasons along the way, although a couple were used primarily in a platoon role. 

uglyone - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:12 AM EST (#315345) #
i'd much rather sign a pitcher than trade pillar or Pompey.
uglyone - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:18 AM EST (#315346) #
that preference includes overpaying one of the 2nd tier FAs over trading those guys.

on the trade market we really have to find a team that (over)values revere's AVG/SPD/CFD skillset. they're still out there.
SK in NJ - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:31 AM EST (#315347) #
"Wouldn't it make more sense if the pitcher being shopped by Cleveland was Carrasco? He's the name we heard being tossed out there at the trade deadline this past season. I can't think of a reason why Cleveland would want to part with Salazar."

Even Carrasco does not make any sense as a trade chip. He makes $19M combined from 2016-18 with two teams options in 2019 and 2010 worth $9M and $9.5M respectively. His buyouts in 2019-20 are practically nothing (662k).

Basically, Carrasco makes less money in 2016 ($4.5M) and 2017 ($6.5M) than Ben Revere is projected to get in arbitration in 2016 ($6.7M). When you have an ace making that little, it makes absolutely no sense to trade him.

If the Indians trade any SP for offensive help, it should be Bauer, Tomlin, or Anderson. Trading one of Kluber, Carrasco, or Salazar given their current contracts would be foolish. Even Cleveland can't be that cheap.

However, if Carrasco is truly available, then all bets are off. Get him any possible way you can.
Jevant - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:34 AM EST (#315348) #
Not to mention the rumours around Carrasco in the summer. It was 3 excellent prospects, as I recall (can't honestly remember the specifics). I would be surprised if the Indians gave up one of their top 3 starters (Kluber/Carrasco/Salazar) unless they are getting someone we would really, really hate giving up (or multiple guys that we would really hate giving up).
finch - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:49 AM EST (#315350) #
IMO, it will be difficult for the Blue Jays to acquire controllable players. I can see Pillar for Bauer; that would be a fair trade for both. Wasn't long ago that Bauer was a Top 5 prospect in MLB
uglyone - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 11:06 AM EST (#315352) #
the natural comparison to Bauer, of course, is Drew Hutchison.

85bluejay - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 11:42 AM EST (#315353) #
I would do Pillar for Salazar - both have similar service time - a good trade for both sides - After his initial poor play on demotion, I think Pompey really improved & impressed - I would be comfortable with Pompey in CF.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 11:49 AM EST (#315354) #
Bauer is a bit different.  He's got a significant control issue, but his career ERA and FIP are pretty comparable and his ERA+ isn't bad for a young pitcher with a K rate as high as his is.

I actually tried to find comps for Drew Hutchison and didn't really find a good one.  I ran a Play Index to find pitchers who threw at least 300 innings through age 24 and had a SO/BB rate of 2.5 or better and an ERA+ of 80 or worse.  The result- one pitcher: Drew Hutchison.  When I loosened it to 2.4 or better and 85 or worse, I got one other pitcher- Reggie Cleveland.  Reggie Cleveland put up much worse ERAs than FIPs at age 23 and 24, but at age 25 had an excellent year.  He sacrificed some Ks for fewer home runs and ended up with an ERA+ of 122 consistent with his FIP.  Cue Crash Davis...

China fan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 12:29 PM EST (#315355) #
"....he simply doesn't have a lot of power and he doesn't walk...."

It's true that Pillar's power is unlikely to improve, but his OBP and his BB% have improved since 2013.  It's not unreasonable to think that they might continue to improve. He might always be below-average in his BB/9 but if his batting average increases and his walks improve a little (combined with his defence and his base-stealing), he becomes even more valuable.  I wouldn't trade him until we see whether he can improve his OBP.   His OBP last season was .314 which wasn't great, but a lot better than it was in his early stints in the majors. 
hypobole - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 01:39 PM EST (#315360) #
One more point on Pillar. He'd struggled vs RHP's prior to last season, wRC+ of 42 and 75. And he was shielded vs some righties also - only 60% of his PA's vs RHP's.

Playing everyday last year, 75% of his PA's were vs RHP's and he improved dramatically with a 96 wRC+ - better than his 86 vs LHP's.
Mike Green - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 02:12 PM EST (#315362) #
Dragmire and McFarland were added to the 40 man in advance of the Rule 5 draft.  Shane Dawson is exposed to the draft.
85bluejay - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 02:47 PM EST (#315366) #
Would it be better for the Jays budget if Donaldson lost the MVP award or does the PR value outweigh the additional salary cost?
scottt - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 05:59 PM EST (#315373) #
IMO, it will be difficult for the Blue Jays to acquire controllable players.

What's the last time the Jays acquired a controllable pitcher that was any good?
Did that ever happen?
scottt - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 06:07 PM EST (#315374) #
I'm opposed to trading Pillar, because I'm not convinced that he has reached his peak.

You sell high, you buy low. If there's a good offer for either of Pillar or Pompey it would be very tempting to say yes.

Pillar is 26 and Pompey is 22. One is more likely to improve than the other.
China fan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 06:15 PM EST (#315376) #
"....Pillar is 26 and Pompey is 22. One is more likely to improve than the other...."

Of course Pompey will improve.  If he doesn't improve, he won't have much of a major-league career, except perhaps as a pinch-runner.  But he'll have to improve a great deal to become a 5-WAR centre-fielder.  Or even to become as good defensively as Pillar is now.
jerjapan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 06:32 PM EST (#315379) #
Mike Green, correct me if I'm wrong, but Dawson doesn't have to be protected from the rule v draft until next year since he was drafted at 18?

Dragmire is interesting, and his numbers look good this year in the AFL - the brass must like him despite his down season in Dunedin, they do tend to send potential big league relievers to Arizona.  He did significantly improve his K/9 rate this year, so perhaps that's what they are focusing on. 

Then again, after the trade deadline, we have plenty of space on the 40 man ...

China fan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 06:51 PM EST (#315380) #
Wow.  Congrats to Josh Donaldson.  The voting wasn't even that close, in the end.  He beat Mike Trout by 385 to 304 votes.  And he got 23 first-place votes, versus only 7 who picked Trout.
uglyone - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 07:12 PM EST (#315381) #
"Of course Pompey will improve. If he doesn't improve, he won't have much of a major-league career, except perhaps as a pinch-runner. But he'll have to improve a great deal to become a 5-WAR centre-fielder. Or even to become as good defensively as Pillar is now."


Pillar: 5.4bwar/650pa
Pompey: 4.4bwar/650pa

Richard S.S. - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 08:02 PM EST (#315382) #
As assets go, one of Dalton Pompey or Kevin Pillar will be the MLB/MLB-Ready component of any trade. Who gets added to each to expand the deal is unknown? It will depend on who's of interest to another GM.

Promoting prospects before their time to MLB will extremely boost their trade value. As long as they don't crash, they should and will be in demand. What the Jays will get is useful or better at the MLB level or a tradable asset or AAAA fodder. That may seem harsh, but it's all too true.
China fan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 09:05 PM EST (#315384) #
Oh come on, Uglyone. You're including Pompey's stats from AA and AAA? Lots of prospects look great at those levels and never even become regulars in the majors, let alone 5 WAR players in the majors. We don't even know yet if Pompey can stick at CF in the majors.
China fan - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 09:07 PM EST (#315385) #
Or you're projecting a tiny major-league sample across 650 PAs? You're leaving us to guess, but either method is misleading.
James W - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:04 PM EST (#315389) #
The rules that these drafts refer to are not Roman-numeralized. Feel free to call it Rule 5.
John Northey - Thursday, November 19 2015 @ 10:36 PM EST (#315391) #
Wow, didn't think about that... Pompey got 0.7 bWAR in just 34 games 103 PA (used for defense or running often), make that 159 games (as Pillar played) and you get 3.3 over 482 PA. Match Pillar's 628 PA and you get 4.3. Either way it suggests Pompey with little improvement could be a solid solution in LF - yeah another weak bat but his defense and speed mixed with Pillar's in CF could result in a team of very happy pitchers as it did early in 2015.

Although when they put Pompey in LF from April 25th to May 1st with Pillar in CF the Jays allowed 29 runs in 6 games going 1-5 in the process. Pompey went 2 for 21 which just might have been a big problem. Then he was sent down. After he came back on September 1st he hit 455/500/636 in 12 PA over 11 games, just 2 starts - most of that was in games the Jays either were winning by a mile or losing by a mile or had just given up trying during that post-clinch period.
SK in NJ - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 07:48 AM EST (#315400) #
With the uncertainty around Bautista post-2016, why not keep both Pompey and Pillar unless a team is willing to knock your socks off in a trade? You're looking at two plus defense/plus baserunning players with potential with the bat (moreso Pompey than Pillar) who will both be cheap for many, many years. Obviously if there's a team out there willing to give up a difference making talent for one of them, then you definitely do it, but there's no real need to trade either one. If the 2016 OF remains the same (Revere-Pillar-Bautista) then Pompey can start in AAA and serve as depth, which the Jays will need anyway.

I usually prefer the MLB talent over the minor league talent due to performance certainty and value, but the Jays have traded so many cost controlled players over the past three years that have provided so much surplus value that I am ready to go the opposite direction. Short-term vets + bring in the kids slowly is how I'd approach the next few seasons. Try to make this a sustainable organization.
jerjapan - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 11:02 AM EST (#315402) #
The rules that these drafts refer to are not Roman-numeralized. Feel free to call it Rule 5.

Baseball reference calls it the rule v draft so that's good enough for me.  I don't recall why I started using the numeral, and I do see both usages, but the rule 5 seems to be more common at the moment.

Still 5 spots on the 40 man with some guys who might get picked if not protected - Andy Burns seems vulnerable to me, although he wasn't picked last year either. 

Is there any reason to leave those spots empty? I believe today is the day the protected list needs to be submitted.  Can't  you just remove someone from the roster if you sign a player before the draft? 
uglyone - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 12:55 PM EST (#315404) #
"Either way it suggests Pompey with little improvement could be a solid solution in LF - yeah another weak bat but his defense and speed mixed with Pillar's in CF could result in a team of very happy pitchers as it did early in 2015. "

there's a pretty good chance he can be a plus bat, and soon.

and as for the discrepancy in defensive value between the 2 wars, we should note that the discrepancy only comes in LF.

Yes the samples are way too small but both defensive systems say he was super elite in his time in CF (167in, +5drs, +29.7), while they're split on his tiny LF sample (49in, +1drs, -51.6uzr/160) - +1drs in 50in is very good, but that UZR value is obviously horrific.

given our scouting eye, his defensive rep and skillset, and that both systems graded him awesome in CF, I think we can safely say that LF uzr is just outlier noise.

Now that's not to say he's necessarily super elite in CF, but he arguably has been so far, and may well be going forward.

either way my overriding point is that the only reason his fwar is so much lower than his bwar is only because it thinks he's worse than colabello in LF.
uglyone - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 12:57 PM EST (#315405) #
and i don't want to trade either of pillar or pompey (or alford), especially if we're just trading for a mid tier SP.

I'd rather overpay a mid tier FA.
Beyonder - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 02:34 PM EST (#315406) #
This is not the most recent version of the business rules, but it looks as though Arabic numerals (eg. 1,2,3) are correct if it matters.
Mike Green - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 03:15 PM EST (#315407) #
Walking to my office this morning after dropping off the car at the mechanic, I passed an intersection I have not noticed before- Thome Crescent and Mount Royal Avenue.  I, of course, thought of the effort to get baseball back in Montreal.

On a related idiosyncratic note, my local ice cream shop is in a low rise building.  There are approximately 10 large Blue Jay flags on top of the building.  Somehow I don't think that Rogers is paying for this advertising; it is one of the perks of a winning ball club.  I'd think that the subliminal messaging is just about optimal- baseball, ice cream, yum.

JB21 - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 05:15 PM EST (#315408) #
The Tigers have acquired Cameron Maybin, which probably doesn't bode well for Anthony Gose.
jensan - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 07:04 PM EST (#315410) #
Pillar+ Smoak for Salazar + Tomlin.

Cleveland requires a solid defense 1st Baseman and a Defensive outfielder.

Toronto requires SP and wants to have $20 million to be spent elsewhere and require low cost and controllable SP. Tomlin and Smoak are 3rd year arb
jensan - Friday, November 20 2015 @ 08:07 PM EST (#315418) #
Chavez for Hendricks
92-93 - Saturday, November 21 2015 @ 04:21 PM EST (#315470) #
Without commenting on specific trade proposals, allow me to say this - not trading Pillar because you are worried he hasn't hit his peak yet is a strange approach to building a team. It's basically impossible to ascertain when a player has peaked - do Nationals fans think 2015 was Harper's best? Even when a player exceeds expectations it's entirely reasonable to think he can fix/improve upon the hole/s that exist in his game. Worrying that you are not selling a player at his absolute apex would've stopped AA from trading away Lawrie before last season. If the Jays did trade Pillar I'm confident the return would justify the deal; he isn't going to get moved for a Chavez-type arm.

China fan - Sunday, November 22 2015 @ 08:04 AM EST (#315487) #
"...Worrying that you are not selling a player at his absolute apex would've stopped AA from trading away Lawrie before last season....."

Lawrie, however, did not seem to be improving at all from 2011 to 2014.   If anything, he seemed to be regressing.  So it was fairly reasonable to think that he had reached his peak (or plateau) and wasn't likely to improve very much. (His 2015 season seemed to confirm this.)   Pillar isn't at all in the same situation.

But yes, I do agree with the general point that you shouldn't refrain from trading a player just because he hasn't necessarily peaked.  Of course it depends on the trade return.  And I didn't mean to imply that Pillar shouldn't be traded if the return is high enough.  (Apologies if I was sounding too absolutist on that point.)  I was just trying to make the point that Pillar could be an elite player if his hitting (or walking) improves.  And if he is traded now, his value wouldn't reflect that potential value.  It's probably worth keeping him for another year or two, while his salary is cheap and his value is likely rising.  And it might be a mistake to assume that the unproven Pompey can just step in and replace Pillar with equal value.  Of course Pompey has lots of potential and could eventually become elite too, but I would rather trade Revere or Saunders, rather than Pillar or Pompey.
China fan - Sunday, November 22 2015 @ 08:10 AM EST (#315488) #
"....given our scouting eye, his defensive rep and skillset, and that both systems graded him awesome in CF, I think we can safely say that LF uzr is just outlier noise...."

I'm not trying to disrespect Pompey, who is still very young and has a chance to be a fantastic player, but I'm not completely convinced by the defensive metrics, especially with such a tiny sample.  My main question is:  why do the Jays keep putting him in LF so often if he is such a great defensive outfielder?  Even in Buffalo last season, he spent one-third of his games in LF.  Same thing in the majors.  Same thing in New Hampshire.  If he is a potential major-league CF, you'd think the Jays would be playing him in CF as much as possible, especially in the minors.
jerjapan - Sunday, November 22 2015 @ 12:45 PM EST (#315498) #
Nicely put 92-93 - you've gotta give value to get value in a trade, and our MLB youth are our most tradeable assets right now.

China, I always figured that Pompey was getting experience playing multiple positions for development purposes.  His path to CF in the bigs is certainly blocked, but nothing wrong with having elite defenders across the OF. 

He looks good to me out there, but I don't know if there are reliable sources for minor league fielding data? 

bpoz - Sunday, November 22 2015 @ 12:46 PM EST (#315500) #
T Snider, A Hill & A Lind were players that I thought would form a powerful core for the Jays. All 3 ended up being lacking. So who knows.

This is regarding the future performance of Pillar and others.
John Northey - Sunday, November 22 2015 @ 04:10 PM EST (#315507) #
The Jays historically have shifted guys around the outfield if at all possible in the minors just so they will be comfortable in any of the 3 positions should a need exist in the majors. Right now, Pillar is the CF. In April it was Pompey until his bat cost him the job and the Jays flipped him and Pillar once they decided Pillar was going to stay.

I checked BR to see if my memory was faulty but they don't have OF breakdowns by LF/CF/RF in the 80's and earlier. I remember the Jays shuffling Bell & Barfield between CF/LF/RF in the minors (wasn't paying attention when Moseby was down there). No one seriously thought of Bell as a CF but they would've done that just to stretch him out and see if he could handle it. Barfield could've handled it but there was no need in the majors. Shannon Stewart got LF/CF time in the minors as his arm was always a weak one so they might have just said 'screw it' to RF with him.
Richard S.S. - Sunday, November 22 2015 @ 04:31 PM EST (#315508) #
Shannon Stewart's weak throwing arm came from an earlier football injury in school. At that time, the surgeries were not available to fix his arm like it could 10-12 years later. By then it was too late to make the change.
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