What was the Jays best Draft
Saturday, April 22 2017 @ 07:22 AM EDT
Contributed by: John Northey
Looking at the kids on the farm I got to thinking about what draft is the best for the Jays and how one would rate it? I'll do a few methods just for fun.
For WAR I'm using BR WAR as they have a nice draft page.
Some random facts...
For the following section I'm only counting guys signed. No marks for being smart enough to draft him (Jim Abbott for example) but not smart enough to sign him.
- 1867 players drafted by the Jays so far (strangely appropriate).
- 821 from a 4 year college, 761 out of High School, 264 from Junior College, leaving 21 unknown.
- 1 60+ WAR player (Halladay), 4 in the 50's (David Wells, Jeff Kent, Stieb, Olerud), 1 in the 40's (Jimmy Key), 6 in the 30's (Orlando Hudson twice).
- Best drafted, not signed Orlando Hudson (he signed the next year). Then comes Ted Lilly (27 WAR), Scott Erickson, and Jim Abbott (nice rotation). Full team would be CA: Doug Mientkiewicz; 1B: Brett Wallace; 2B: Jeff DaVanon; SS: Orlando Hudson (Dante Powell next best); 3B: Kris Bryant; OF: Darren Lewis; Jeffrey Hammonds; Orlando Palmeiro, closer Mike Henneman with Ryan Franklin and Chad Qualls as setup.
- Highest pick not signed: Phil Bickford (#10 in 2013), Tyler Beede (#21, 2011) - neither has reached yet.
- Best High School: Halladay; Best Junior College: Orlando Hudson; Best 4 year college: John Olerud; Best Unknown: Mark Hendrickson
- Worst Player: Jeff Kaiser (unsigned, -2.3 WAR); Worst Signed: Mike Johnson -2.1 (RHP, 1993, 17th round) then Danny Ainge (-2 WAR, SS 1977, NBA all-star)
Digging through all of this I'd say one needs to go with either 1997 (3 all-star guys) or 1989 (2 near HOF'ers) with 1982 getting honourable mention (2 near HOF'ers plus a WS MVP).
- Method #1: raw WAR generated
- 1989: 114.6 Total Peak of 58 (John Olerud round 3) also Jeff Kent (round 20) 55
- 1982: 105.5 Total Peak of 53.6 (David Wells 2nd round) also Jimmy Key
- 1997: 88.3 Total Peak of 30.9 (Orlando Hudson round 43) also Vernon Wells and Michael Young
- Method #2: Total ML players created (subset, total with 2+ WAR so at least they weren't useless, subset 2 with 10+ WAR so very valuable)
- 2009: 5 with 2+ WAR (none over 8) with Jenkins, Hutchison both able to make that grow
- 1991/1997/1986: 4 each with 2+ WAR
- 17 times the Jays had 10+ WAR players drafted (total of 27 players all time)
- 1997: 3 with 10+ WAR - Hudson, Wells, Young (all over 20). Wow.
- 1991: 2 - Shawn Green & Alex Gonzalez with Chris Stynes just shy at 8.2
- also with 2: 1978, 1982, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1999, 2003
- Method #3: Stars signed (20+ WAR players) and Near HOF'ers (50+)
- 1997: 3 - Hudson, Wells, Young. Wow. No 50+'s, also Mark Hendrickson (4.5 WAR)
- 1978: 2 - Dave Stieb (50+), Lloyd Moseby (20's), and 2 others with 11 games between them
- 1982: 2 - David Wells (50+), Jimmy Key (40's), also Pat Borders and 2 negative WAR guys
- 1989: 2 - John Olerud (50+), Jeff Kent (50+), 3 others made it but did nothing
- 1995: 1 - Roy Halladay (the only 60+ ever for the Jays) but only 2 others made the majors from that draft (Ryan Freel & Craig Wilson)
Since I have the data I checked by position as well.
|Position||Total WAR||Best WAR||Players Drafted|
|1B||101.2||58 - John Olerud (3rd)||66|
|2B||10.5||8.8 - Ryan Freel (10th)||51|
|3B||41.8||24.9 - Casey Blake (7th)||49|
|SS||157.9||55.2 - Jeff Kent (20th)||114|
|CF||15.9||9.6 - Kevin Pillar (32nd)||15|
|OF||255.8||57.2 - Dave Stieb (yes, drafted in OF) (5th)||143|
|C||21.9||7.7 - Yan Gomes (10th)||109|
|LHP||136.7||53.6 - David Wells (2nd)||158|
|RHP||299.3||64.6 - Roy Halladay (1st)||406|
Notes: The best 'real' outfielder is Jesse Barfield at 39.3 WAR (9th round), then Shawn Green at 34.5; Alex Rios on BR is listed as drafted at 3B but at other sources is listed as drafted in the OF and I cannot recall ever hearing him listed at 3B nor did he play a single pro inning at 3B (or SS or 2B for that matter) so I'll assume BR has an error there.