Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - What was the Jays best Draft

Looking at the kids on the farm I got to thinking about what draft is the best for the Jays and how one would rate it? I'll do a few methods just for fun.

For WAR I'm using BR WAR as they have a nice draft page.
Some random facts...

1867 players drafted by the Jays so far (strangely appropriate).
821 from a 4 year college, 761 out of High School, 264 from Junior College, leaving 21 unknown.
1 60+ WAR player (Halladay), 4 in the 50's (David Wells, Jeff Kent, Stieb, Olerud), 1 in the 40's (Jimmy Key), 6 in the 30's (Orlando Hudson twice).
Best drafted, not signed Orlando Hudson (he signed the next year). Then comes Ted Lilly (27 WAR), Scott Erickson, and Jim Abbott (nice rotation). Full team would be CA: Doug Mientkiewicz; 1B: Brett Wallace; 2B: Jeff DaVanon; SS: Orlando Hudson (Dante Powell next best); 3B: Kris Bryant; OF: Darren Lewis; Jeffrey Hammonds; Orlando Palmeiro, closer Mike Henneman with Ryan Franklin and Chad Qualls as setup.
Highest pick not signed: Phil Bickford (#10 in 2013), Tyler Beede (#21, 2011) - neither has reached yet.
Best High School: Halladay; Best Junior College: Orlando Hudson; Best 4 year college: John Olerud; Best Unknown: Mark Hendrickson
Worst Player: Jeff Kaiser (unsigned, -2.3 WAR); Worst Signed: Mike Johnson -2.1 (RHP, 1993, 17th round) then Danny Ainge (-2 WAR, SS 1977, NBA all-star)

For the following section I'm only counting guys signed. No marks for being smart enough to draft him (Jim Abbott for example) but not smart enough to sign him.

Method #1: raw WAR generated
- 1989: 114.6 Total Peak of 58 (John Olerud round 3) also Jeff Kent (round 20) 55
- 1982: 105.5 Total Peak of 53.6 (David Wells 2nd round) also Jimmy Key
- 1997: 88.3 Total Peak of 30.9 (Orlando Hudson round 43) also Vernon Wells and Michael Young
Method #2: Total ML players created (subset, total with 2+ WAR so at least they weren't useless, subset 2 with 10+ WAR so very valuable)
- 2009: 5 with 2+ WAR (none over 8) with Jenkins, Hutchison both able to make that grow
- 1991/1997/1986: 4 each with 2+ WAR
- 17 times the Jays had 10+ WAR players drafted (total of 27 players all time)
- 1997: 3 with 10+ WAR - Hudson, Wells, Young (all over 20). Wow.
- 1991: 2 - Shawn Green & Alex Gonzalez with Chris Stynes just shy at 8.2
- also with 2: 1978, 1982, 1987, 1988, 1989, 1999, 2003
Method #3: Stars signed (20+ WAR players) and Near HOF'ers (50+)
- 1997: 3 - Hudson, Wells, Young. Wow. No 50+'s, also Mark Hendrickson (4.5 WAR)
- 1978: 2 - Dave Stieb (50+), Lloyd Moseby (20's), and 2 others with 11 games between them
- 1982: 2 - David Wells (50+), Jimmy Key (40's), also Pat Borders and 2 negative WAR guys
- 1989: 2 - John Olerud (50+), Jeff Kent (50+), 3 others made it but did nothing
- 1995: 1 - Roy Halladay (the only 60+ ever for the Jays) but only 2 others made the majors from that draft (Ryan Freel & Craig Wilson)

Digging through all of this I'd say one needs to go with either 1997 (3 all-star guys) or 1989 (2 near HOF'ers) with 1982 getting honourable mention (2 near HOF'ers plus a WS MVP).

Since I have the data I checked by position as well.

Position	Total WAR	Best WAR	Players Drafted
1B	101.2	58 - John Olerud (3rd)	66
2B	10.5	8.8 - Ryan Freel (10th)	51
3B	41.8	24.9 - Casey Blake (7th)	49
SS	157.9	55.2 - Jeff Kent (20th)	114
IF	0	--	4
LF	0	--	4
CF	15.9	9.6 - Kevin Pillar (32nd)	15
RF	0	--	7
OF	255.8	57.2 - Dave Stieb (yes, drafted in OF) (5th)	143
C	21.9	7.7 - Yan Gomes (10th)	109
LHP	136.7	53.6 - David Wells (2nd)	158
RHP	299.3	64.6 - Roy Halladay (1st)	406

Notes: The best 'real' outfielder is Jesse Barfield at 39.3 WAR (9th round), then Shawn Green at 34.5; Alex Rios on BR is listed as drafted at 3B but at other sources is listed as drafted in the OF and I cannot recall ever hearing him listed at 3B nor did he play a single pro inning at 3B (or SS or 2B for that matter) so I'll assume BR has an error there.

Posted by John Northey on Saturday, April 22 2017 @ 07:22 AM EDT.

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The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

scottt - Saturday, April 22 2017 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#341000) #

I hadn't noticed that the Giants picked up both Bickford and Beede.
It's almost as if they can't do their own scouting, which would explain Biagini not being protected.
Oh, well. At least they're not hacking anyone's databases.

It sounds like there was a rush to give Eric Thames a random drug this week.
He might be on track to hit 80 homeruns. People need to relax. It's only April.

hypobole - Saturday, April 22 2017 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#341003) #

For the "drafted but not signed", Kris Bryant definitely worth a mention. Already over 14 WAR.

John Northey - Saturday, April 22 2017 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#341011) #

Good catch. Thought I grabbed everyone who wasn't signed but missed 3B somehow.

3 in the 20+ area (Orlando Hudson, Ted Lilly, Scott Erickson)
6 in the 10's (Jim Abbott, Kris Bryant, Mike Henneman, Doug Mientkiewicz, Ryan Franklin, and Darren Lewis)
11 in the 2-9.9 range (Jeffrey Hammonds, Chad Qualls, James Paxton, Jeff DaVanon, Brad Hawpe, Ron Romanick, Rich DeLucia, Orlando Palmeiro, Cris Carpenter, Scott Livingstone, Ed Vosberg)
Another 12 in the 0.1 to 1.9 range
Another 3 at exactly 0
28 in the negative WAR area (ie: glad they aren't here)

dan gordon - Sunday, April 23 2017 @ 02:55 AM EDT (#341018) #

As a Giants' fan, I was quite happy to see them end up with Bickford and Beede. And losing Biagini didn't bother me, because the Jays got him. The Giants have actually done a great job in the draft, snagging guys like Posey, Bumgarner, Panik, Duffy, Crawford, Lincecum, Wheeler, Belt, Duvall, Biagini and several others who made the majors, in the drafts from 2006 to 2012.

John Northey - Sunday, April 23 2017 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#341022) #

Dan - good point about the Giants.

2006: Tim Lincecum 21.1 (4 negative years drag him down)
2007: Madison Bumgarner 30.0 and Dan Otero 4.6 (decent reliever)
2008: Buster Posey 34.0 & Brandon Crawford 18.8
2009: Brandon Belt 17.7
2010: Adam Duvall 3.8; Heath Hembree 1.7
2011: Joe Panik 6.4;Joe Biagini 1.7; Kelby Tomlinson 1.7; 3 others over 1
2012: Matt Duffy 6.4

So from 2006 to 2008 they drafted 3 20+ WAR guys, 2 over 30. The last 30+'er the Jays drafted was Orlando Hudson in 1997. To get a second you gotta go back to 1995 and Roy Halladay. The last 20+ was Aaron Hill in 2003.

Of course, that'll all change within a few years as 2010 has Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez (9.3 and 8 respectively so far). That draft also got the Jays relievers Sam Dyson & Danny Barnes plus Dalton Pompey and 3 guys useful in trades in Justin Nicolino, Asher Wojciechowski, and Sean Nolin.

2011 saw Kevin Pillar (9.6) and Anthony DeSclafani (3.9), Daniel Norris (useful in trade), and 3 others who've reached so far.

2012 was Marcus Stroman (5.1) and top prospect Anthony Alford.

2013's top is a surprise in Kendall Graveman as he was a super-bargain signing (5.3)

2014 on has Jeff Hoffman in the majors so far with none from 2015 or 2016 up yet.

bpoz - Sunday, April 23 2017 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#341025) #

Thanks for all the work you do John N. I enjoy reading your analysis and your methods of grouping players.

Way back in the early Gillick days he seemed to excite a lot of us with his Latin Players. Epy Gererro. Fond memories for me.

AA rekindled the excitement with his drafting style. A lot of power pitchers. Other than Vlad Jr Int'l signings so far are disappointing to me. Actually there were a lot of power pitchers signed. Many traded. I just remembered our closer.

This FO has drafted differently. A lot less pitching but much more position players. By the next draft the performance sample size will be big enough to evaluate the full season draftees.

It looks positive so far. One big factor IMO is that the college draftees will move faster than AA's HS draftees.

scottt - Sunday, April 23 2017 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#341026) #

The last thing the Jays need right now is guy named Panik on the team.

BlueJayWay - Sunday, April 23 2017 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#341027) #

This FO has drafted differently. A lot less pitching but much more position players.

I approve this strategy.

John Northey - Sunday, April 23 2017 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#341040) #

With drafting I tend to be of the 'get the best player available, screw position'. IE: don't ignore a Trout just because you have a ton of outfielders. Prospects are crapshoots, under 1 in 5 make it so make sure you get the best possible. Of the 1867 the Jays have drafted just 92 have had 2+ WAR or 4.9%.

lexomatic - Monday, April 24 2017 @ 06:04 AM EDT (#341054) #

The jays haven't drafted stars, but they have drafted over 50 players that have reached mlb since 2007.
That's significantly above average. I haven't looked at all the teams over that period - I'm about halfway, but therearelots of teams who have drafted players with no more impact than the jays, but also fewer in number.
Trout and his draft class is 90% of all the value accrued by angels draftees since 2007. The twins have possibly the highest percentage of draftees who made it but signed with someone else.

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