Finesse Pitchers

Tuesday, September 04 2018 @ 07:00 PM EDT

Contributed by: Magpie

The Blue Jays rotation in 2018 has been anchored, for the most part, by three right-handed finesse pitchers. Which explains a lot, as far as I'm concerned. I don't particularly believe in right-handed finesse pitchers. Oh, I believe they exist. I just don't believe you can count on them to be particularly good.

It's taken me far too long to understand this. What can I say? I'm old, possibly a little set in my ways, and - most importantly - a lot of my mental markers for baseball were formed back when the game was played just a little differently. So I see Stroman and Sanchez zipping the ball up there at 92 mph and harder.  I see them striking out more than 7 guys per 9 innings.  I assume that I'm looking at a power pitcher. Hey, Dave Stieb was a power pitcher and he never struck out that many guys in his life.

But the game done changed. As I certainly know, because I do bitch about it from time to time (old guy, as I said.) Today, your average AL starting pitcher strikes out 8.1 per 9 innings. Thirty years ago, in 1988, the average AL starter struck out 5.3 batters per 9 innings. That's an enormous change,  Relief pitchers, then and now, strike out more hitters than starting pitchers. In 1988, relievers averaged 5.95 K/9, and in 2018 your modern reliever averages 8.98 K/9. Now  the proportional increase for relievers over what the starters do is quite similar. Thirty years ago, relievers struck out 12% more batters than starters; today relievers strike out 10% more than starters. I attribute this small change to the fact that starters now account for a smaller share of the innings pitched these days and are able to go just a little harder in the ones they do pitch. (And relievers account for a larger share, and the game today is awash with mediocre pitchers throwing as hard as they can for one inning.) Anyway - starters consumed 71% of all innings in 1988 as opposed to just 60% in 2018. But it's still my belief that the larger, overall change can be attributed to a different approach by the hitters. They're all gripping the bat down at the end, looking for a pitch they can hit over the wall, and accepting the extra strikeouts as the cost of doing business.

But anyway - the bar has been moved to a completely different place. In 1988, there were 61 pitchers in the AL who started at least 20 games. Roger Clemens led the league with 9.92 K/9, and Dave Stieb, with 6.38 K/9 IP ranked 13th. Roughly half of those starters were above the league average in K/9  - Jim Clancy of the Jays was 27th at 5.41. Toronto's two LH finesse pitchers, Jimmy Key and Mike Flanagan were both a little below average. Key was 40th in the league (4.45 K/9) and Flanagan was 43rd (4.22 K/9.)

In 2018, there have been 60 pitchers who have started 17 games in the AL so far (this includes Ryne Stanek of the Rays, an obvious ringer, but Kevin Cash has always made my life difficult.) Once again roughly half of these guys are above the league average in K/9 - but as noted above, that average in 2018 is 8.13 K/9 for a starting pitcher. Aaron Sanchez is comfortably below the league average. He stands 42nd in this group with 7.25 K/9, and Marcus Stroman is further down the list. Stroman is in 50th place (6.77 K/9). And Marco Estrada is lower still, 54th out of 60 pitchers with 6.51 K/9 - a figure which would have been pretty impressive 30 years ago. But today? Not so much.

Estrada, who was comfortably above the league average in the previous two seasons, isn't really a problem. A 35 year old free agent, whose performance and peripherals are in decline (if not free fall) is not an issue for the club going forward. So long, and thanks for all the fish. But Stroman and Sanchez were supposed to be the future of the rotation. Despite the fact that neither of have ever really come close to the league average of more than 8 K/9. So I don't know that this is going to work.

Hey, how about a couple of Data Tables? It's been a while, no?

Here's the 1988 list.
1988  Name	        Age    Tm	K/9	 W	 L	ERA	G	GS	IPT	ERA+ 										0		  
 1    Roger Clemens	 25    BOS	9.92	18	12	2.93	35	35	264	141  
 2    Mark Langston	 27    SEA	8.09	15	11	3.34	35	35	261.1	125  
 3    Bobby Witt  	 24    TEX	7.64	 8	10	3.92	22	22	174.1	104  
 4    Teddy Higuera	 30    MIL	7.60	16	 9	2.45	31	31	227.1	162  
 5    Mike Moore         28    SEA	7.16	 9	15	3.78	37	32	228.2	111  
 6    John Candelaria    34    NYY	6.94	13	 7	3.38	25	24	157	117  
 7    Bruce Hurst        30    BOS	6.90	18	 6	3.66	33	32	216.2	113  
 8    Jose Guzman	 25    TEX	6.84	11	13	3.70	30	30	206.2	110  
 9    Frank Viola	 28    MIN	6.80	24	 7	2.64	35	35	255.1	154 
10    Scott Bankhead	 24    SEA	6.80	 7	 9	3.07	21	21	135	136 
11    Greg Swindell	 23    CLE	6.69	18	14	3.20	33	33	242	128 
12    Jack Morris	 33    DET	6.43	15	13	3.94	34	34	235	 97 
13    Dave Stieb	 30    TOR	6.38	16	 8	3.04	32	31	207.1	128 
14    Melido Perez	 22    CHW	6.30	12	10	3.79	32	32	197	105 
15    Bert Blyleven	 37    MIN	6.29	10	17	5.43	33	33	207.1	 75 
16    Dave Stewart	 31    OAK	6.27	21	12	3.23	37	37	275.2	118 
17    Charlie Hough	 40    TEX	6.21	15	16	3.32	34	34	252	122 
18    Mark Gubicza	 25    KCR	6.11	20	 8	2.70	35	35	269.2	149 
19    Kirk McCaskill	 27    CAL	6.03	 8	 6	4.31	23	23	146.1	 90 
20    Jeff Robinson	 26    DET	5.97	13	 6	2.98	24	23	172	128 
21    Mike Boddicker	 30    TOT	5.95	13	15	3.39	36	35	236	118 
22    Bret Saberhagen	 24    KCR	5.90	14	16	3.80	35	35	260.2	106 
23    Bob Welch	         31    OAK	5.81	17	 9	3.64	36	36	244.2	105 
24    Tom Candiotti	 30    CLE	5.69	14	 8	3.28	31	31	216.2	125 
25    Storm Davis	 26    OAK	5.67	16	 7	3.70	33	33	201.2	103 
26    Frank Tanana	 34    DET	5.63	14	11	4.21	32	32	203	 91 
27    Jim Clancy	 32    TOR	5.41	11	13	4.49	36	31	196.1	 87 
28    Floyd Bannister	 33    KCR	5.37	12	13	4.33	31	31	189.1	 93 
29    Chuck Finley	 25    CAL	5.14	 9	15	4.17	31	31	194.1	 93 
30    Charlie Lea	 31    MIN	4.98	 7	 7	4.85	24	23	130	 84 
31    Doyle Alexander	 37    DET	4.95	14	11	4.32	34	34	229	 88 
32    Mike Campbell	 24    SEA	4.94	 6	10	5.89	20	20	114.2	 71 
33    Oil Can Boyd	 28    BOS	4.93	 9	 7	5.34	23	23	129.2	 78 
34    Mike Witt	         27    CAL	4.79	13	16	4.15	34	34	249.2	 93 
35    Jack McDowell	 22    CHW	4.76	 5	10	3.97	26	26	158.2	100 
36    Rich Yett	         25    CLE	4.76	 9	 6	4.62	23	22	134.1	 89 
37    Jay Tibbs	         26    BAL	4.65	 4	15	5.39	30	24	158.2	 72 
38    Mike Birkbeck	 27    MIL	4.65	10	 8	4.72	23	23	124	 85 
39    Charlie Leibrandt	 31    KCR	4.63	13	12	3.19	35	35	243	126 
40    Jimmy Key	         27    TOR	4.45	12	 5	3.29	21	21	131.1	119 
41    Dave LaPoint	 28    CHW	4.41	10	11	3.40	25	25	161.1	117 
42    Rick Rhoden	 35    NYY	4.29	12	12	4.29	30	30	197	 92 
43    Mike Flanagan	 36    TOR	4.22	13	13	4.18	34	34	211	 93 
44    Jeff Russell	 26    TEX	4.20	10	 9	3.82	34	24	188.2	106 
45    Chris Bosio	 25    MIL	4.15	 7	15	3.36	38	22	182	118 
46    Tommy John	 45    NYY	4.13	 9	 8	4.49	35	32	176.1	 88 
47    Dan Petry	         29    CAL	4.12	 3	 9	4.38	22	22	139.2	 88 
48    Richard Dotson     29    NYY	4.05	12	 9	5.00	32	29	171	 79 
49    Don August	 24    MIL	4.00	13	 7	3.09	24	22	148.1	129 
50    Jose Bautista	 23    BAL	3.98	 6	15	4.30	33	25	171.2	 91 
51    Willie Fraser	 24    CAL	3.98	12	13	5.41	34	32	194.2	 71 
52    Curt Young	 28    OAK	3.97	11	 8	4.14	26	26	156.1	 92 
53    John Farrell	 25    CLE	3.94	14	10	4.24	31	30	210.1	 97 
54    Paul Kilgus	 26    TEX	3.90	12	15	4.16	32	32	203.1	 98 
55    Bill Wegman	 25    MIL	3.80	13	13	4.12	32	31	199	 97 
56    Allan Anderson	 24    MIN	3.69	16	 9	2.45	30	30	202.1	166 
57    Walt Terrell	 30    DET	3.66	 7	16	3.97	29	29	206.1	 96 
58    Jerry Reuss	 39    CHW	3.59	13	 9	3.44	32	29	183	116 
59    Scott Bailes	 26    CLE	3.29	 9	14	4.90	37	21	145	 84 
60    Bill Swift 	 26    SEA	2.42	 8	12	4.59	38	24	174.2	 91 
61    Jeff Ballard	 24    BAL	2.41	 8	12	4.40	25	25	153.1	 89 

And here's the 2018 list.

2018 Name    Age    Tm    SO/9    W    L    ERA    G    GS    IP       ERA+
                                               
1    Chris Sale    29 BOS    13.50   12    4    1.97    23    23    146      221
2    Gerrit Cole    27    HOU    12.40   13    5    2.86     28     28     176.1    139
3    Justin Verlander 35    HOU    11.93   13    9    2.78     29     29    181      143
4    Trevor Bauer    27    CLE     11.60   12     6    2.22     25     25     166      198
5    James Paxton    29    SEA    11.60   11     5    3.74     25     25     144.1    109
6    Charlie Morton   34    HOU    10.95   13    3    3.14     26     26     152      127
7    Ryne Stanek    26    TBR    10.86    2    3    2.72     47     23     56.1    150
8    Blake Snell    25    TBR     10.50   17    5    2.02     26     26     151.2    201
9    Luis Severino    24    NYY     10.47   17    6    3.32     28     28     171      133
10    Carlos Carrasco  31    CLE    10.45   16    8    3.52     27    26     161      125
11    J.A. Happ    35    TOT     9.99   15    6    4.00    26     26     148.2    106
12    Eduardo Rodriguez  25    BOS    9.95   12     3    3.34    20     20     110.1    131
13    Lance McCullers    24    HOU    9.86   10    6    3.93     22     22     126      101
14    Chris Archer    29    TBR    9.56    3    5    4.31    17     17     96       94
15    Dylan Bundy    25    BAL    9.55    7   13    5.36    26     26     146       79
16    Tyler Skaggs    26    LAA     9.49    8    8    3.78     21     21     116.2    112
17    Lance Lynn    31    TOT    9.41    8     10    5.10     27     26     137.2    86
18    Jose Berrios    24    MIN     9.18   11     10    3.92     28     28     167.2    111
19    Rick Porcello    29    BOS     9.12   15     7    4.27     28     28     168.2    102
20    Mike Clevinger    27    CLE     9.09   10     7    3.17     27     27     170.1    139
21    Jake Odorizzi     28    MIN    9.06    5    9    4.41     28     28     143       99
22    Masahiro Tanaka   29    NYY     9.00   10     5    3.83     23     23     134      115
23    David Price    32    BOS     8.98   14     6    3.60     26     26     152.1    121
24    Cole Hamels     34    TEX     8.97    5     9    4.72     20     20     114.1    102
25    Corey Kluber     32    CLE     8.68   17     7    2.80     28     28     186.2    157
26    Andrew Heaney     27    LAA     8.53    8    8    4.09     25     25     152      104
27    Jakob Junis     25    KCR     8.47    8     12    4.32     26     26     154       99
28    Sonny Gray     28    NYY     8.46   10    8    4.96     27     22     123.1    89
29    Kyle Gibson     30    MIN     8.32    7     12    3.74     28     28    171      117
30    CC Sabathia     37    NYY     8.29    7     6    3.54     25     25     134.2    124
31    Trevor Cahill     30    OAK     8.28    6     3    3.60     18     18     100      114
32    Ian Kennedy     33    KCR    8.27    1     8    5.13    18     18     94.2    83
33    Sam Gaviglio     28    TOR    8.25    3     7    5.02     21     19     100.1    84
34    Danny Duffy     29    KCR    8.22    8     11    4.72     27     27     154.1    91
35    Matthew Boyd     27    DET    8.06    9     12    4.24     27     27     153      104
36    Jordan Zimmermann  32    DET     7.93    6    6    4.22     20     20     106.2    105
37    Marco Gonzales     26    SEA     7.91   12     9    4.32     25     25     145.2    94
38    Kevin Gausman     27    BAL    7.55    5     8    4.43     21     21     124       96
39    Michael Fulmer     25    DET    7.50    3     10    4.57     22     22     126       96
40    Nathan Eovaldi     28    TOT     7.44    5     7    4.20     18     18     94.1    100
41    Mike Minor     30    TEX     7.40   10     7    4.33     24     24     135      112
42    Aaron Sanchez     25    TOR     7.26    3     5    5.22     17     17     88       81
43    Felix Hernandez    32    SEA     7.25    8     13    5.55     27     26     147.2    73
44    Mike Fiers     33    TOT     7.18   10    6    3.38     26     26     146.2    129
45    Wade LeBlanc     33    SEA     7.16    8    3    3.71     27     22     135.2    109
46    James Shields     36    CHW     6.96    6     15    4.39     30     29     182.1    95
47    Francisco Liriano  34    DET     6.90    3     9    4.96     22     21     107       89
48    Jaime Barria     21    LAA     6.83    9     8    3.46     21     21     106.2    123
49    Dallas Keuchel     30    HOU     6.81   11     10    3.46     29     29     179.2    115
50    Marcus Stroman     27    TOR     6.77    4     9    5.54     19     19     102.1    76
51    Reynaldo Lopez     24    CHW     6.75    5     9    4.37     28     28     162.2    96
52    Lucas Giolito     23    CHW     6.62   10     9    5.66     27     27     151       74
53    Dylan Covey     26    CHW    6.54    5     12    5.61     21     17     96.1    75
54    Marco Estrada     34    TOR     6.51    7     11    5.43     24     24     124.1    77
55    Jason Hammel    35    KCR     6.40    2    12    6.02     33     18     121       71
56    Alex Cobb    30    BAL     6.11    4    15    5.11     25     25     144.1    83
57    Sean Manaea    26    OAK     6.05   12     9    3.59     27     27     160.2    115
58    Andrew Cashner    31    BAL     6.03    4     13    4.86     26     26     146.1    87
59    Mike Leake    30    SEA     5.73    8     9    4.25  27     27     165       95
60    Bartolo Colon    45    TEX     5.00    7     11    5.45     25     23     140.1    89

Geez, I'd forgotten how tedious it was to line up all those columns. Anyway, I know what you're all thinking.

Jose Bautista used to pitch for the Orioles?

52 comments



https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20180904174557299