The Blue Jays rotation in 2018 has been anchored, for the most part, by three right-handed finesse pitchers. Which explains a lot, as far as I'm concerned. I don't particularly believe in right-handed finesse pitchers. Oh, I believe they exist. I just don't believe you can count on them to be particularly good.
It's taken me far too long to understand this. What can I say? I'm old, possibly a little set in my ways, and - most importantly - a lot of my mental markers for baseball were formed back when the game was played just a little differently. So I see Stroman and Sanchez zipping the ball up there at 92 mph and harder. I see them striking out more than 7 guys per 9 innings. I assume that I'm looking at a power pitcher. Hey, Dave Stieb was a power pitcher and he never struck out that many guys in his life.
But the game done changed. As I certainly know, because I do bitch about it from time to time (old guy, as I said.) Today, your average AL starting pitcher strikes out 8.1 per 9 innings. Thirty years ago, in 1988, the average AL starter struck out 5.3 batters per 9 innings. That's an enormous change, Relief pitchers, then and now, strike out more hitters than starting pitchers. In 1988, relievers averaged 5.95 K/9, and in 2018 your modern reliever averages 8.98 K/9. Now the proportional increase for relievers over what the starters do is quite similar. Thirty years ago, relievers struck out 12% more batters than starters; today relievers strike out 10% more than starters. I attribute this small change to the fact that starters now account for a smaller share of the innings pitched these days and are able to go just a little harder in the ones they do pitch. (And relievers account for a larger share, and the game today is awash with mediocre pitchers throwing as hard as they can for one inning.) Anyway - starters consumed 71% of all innings in 1988 as opposed to just 60% in 2018. But it's still my belief that the larger, overall change can be attributed to a different approach by the hitters. They're all gripping the bat down at the end, looking for a pitch they can hit over the wall, and accepting the extra strikeouts as the cost of doing business.
But anyway - the bar has been moved to a completely different place. In 1988, there were 61 pitchers in the AL who started at least 20 games. Roger Clemens led the league with 9.92 K/9, and Dave Stieb, with 6.38 K/9 IP ranked 13th. Roughly half of those starters were above the league average in K/9 - Jim Clancy of the Jays was 27th at 5.41. Toronto's two LH finesse pitchers, Jimmy Key and Mike Flanagan were both a little below average. Key was 40th in the league (4.45 K/9) and Flanagan was 43rd (4.22 K/9.)
In 2018, there have been 60 pitchers who have started 17 games in the AL so far (this includes Ryne Stanek of the Rays, an obvious ringer, but Kevin Cash has always made my life difficult.) Once again roughly half of these guys are above the league average in K/9 - but as noted above, that average in 2018 is 8.13 K/9 for a starting pitcher. Aaron Sanchez is comfortably below the league average. He stands 42nd in this group with 7.25 K/9, and Marcus Stroman is further down the list. Stroman is in 50th place (6.77 K/9). And Marco Estrada is lower still, 54th out of 60 pitchers with 6.51 K/9 - a figure which would have been pretty impressive 30 years ago. But today? Not so much.
Estrada, who was comfortably above the league average in the previous two seasons, isn't really a problem. A 35 year old free agent, whose performance and peripherals are in decline (if not free fall) is not an issue for the club going forward. So long, and thanks for all the fish. But Stroman and Sanchez were supposed to be the future of the rotation. Despite the fact that neither of have ever really come close to the league average of more than 8 K/9. So I don't know that this is going to work.
Hey, how about a couple of Data Tables? It's been a while, no?
It's taken me far too long to understand this. What can I say? I'm old, possibly a little set in my ways, and - most importantly - a lot of my mental markers for baseball were formed back when the game was played just a little differently. So I see Stroman and Sanchez zipping the ball up there at 92 mph and harder. I see them striking out more than 7 guys per 9 innings. I assume that I'm looking at a power pitcher. Hey, Dave Stieb was a power pitcher and he never struck out that many guys in his life.
But the game done changed. As I certainly know, because I do bitch about it from time to time (old guy, as I said.) Today, your average AL starting pitcher strikes out 8.1 per 9 innings. Thirty years ago, in 1988, the average AL starter struck out 5.3 batters per 9 innings. That's an enormous change, Relief pitchers, then and now, strike out more hitters than starting pitchers. In 1988, relievers averaged 5.95 K/9, and in 2018 your modern reliever averages 8.98 K/9. Now the proportional increase for relievers over what the starters do is quite similar. Thirty years ago, relievers struck out 12% more batters than starters; today relievers strike out 10% more than starters. I attribute this small change to the fact that starters now account for a smaller share of the innings pitched these days and are able to go just a little harder in the ones they do pitch. (And relievers account for a larger share, and the game today is awash with mediocre pitchers throwing as hard as they can for one inning.) Anyway - starters consumed 71% of all innings in 1988 as opposed to just 60% in 2018. But it's still my belief that the larger, overall change can be attributed to a different approach by the hitters. They're all gripping the bat down at the end, looking for a pitch they can hit over the wall, and accepting the extra strikeouts as the cost of doing business.
But anyway - the bar has been moved to a completely different place. In 1988, there were 61 pitchers in the AL who started at least 20 games. Roger Clemens led the league with 9.92 K/9, and Dave Stieb, with 6.38 K/9 IP ranked 13th. Roughly half of those starters were above the league average in K/9 - Jim Clancy of the Jays was 27th at 5.41. Toronto's two LH finesse pitchers, Jimmy Key and Mike Flanagan were both a little below average. Key was 40th in the league (4.45 K/9) and Flanagan was 43rd (4.22 K/9.)
In 2018, there have been 60 pitchers who have started 17 games in the AL so far (this includes Ryne Stanek of the Rays, an obvious ringer, but Kevin Cash has always made my life difficult.) Once again roughly half of these guys are above the league average in K/9 - but as noted above, that average in 2018 is 8.13 K/9 for a starting pitcher. Aaron Sanchez is comfortably below the league average. He stands 42nd in this group with 7.25 K/9, and Marcus Stroman is further down the list. Stroman is in 50th place (6.77 K/9). And Marco Estrada is lower still, 54th out of 60 pitchers with 6.51 K/9 - a figure which would have been pretty impressive 30 years ago. But today? Not so much.
Estrada, who was comfortably above the league average in the previous two seasons, isn't really a problem. A 35 year old free agent, whose performance and peripherals are in decline (if not free fall) is not an issue for the club going forward. So long, and thanks for all the fish. But Stroman and Sanchez were supposed to be the future of the rotation. Despite the fact that neither of have ever really come close to the league average of more than 8 K/9. So I don't know that this is going to work.
Hey, how about a couple of Data Tables? It's been a while, no?
Here's the 1988 list.
And here's the 2018 list.
1988 Name Age Tm K/9 W L ERA G GS IPT ERA+ 0 1 Roger Clemens 25 BOS 9.92 18 12 2.93 35 35 264 141 2 Mark Langston 27 SEA 8.09 15 11 3.34 35 35 261.1 125 3 Bobby Witt 24 TEX 7.64 8 10 3.92 22 22 174.1 104 4 Teddy Higuera 30 MIL 7.60 16 9 2.45 31 31 227.1 162 5 Mike Moore 28 SEA 7.16 9 15 3.78 37 32 228.2 111 6 John Candelaria 34 NYY 6.94 13 7 3.38 25 24 157 117 7 Bruce Hurst 30 BOS 6.90 18 6 3.66 33 32 216.2 113 8 Jose Guzman 25 TEX 6.84 11 13 3.70 30 30 206.2 110 9 Frank Viola 28 MIN 6.80 24 7 2.64 35 35 255.1 154 10 Scott Bankhead 24 SEA 6.80 7 9 3.07 21 21 135 136 11 Greg Swindell 23 CLE 6.69 18 14 3.20 33 33 242 128 12 Jack Morris 33 DET 6.43 15 13 3.94 34 34 235 97 13 Dave Stieb 30 TOR 6.38 16 8 3.04 32 31 207.1 128 14 Melido Perez 22 CHW 6.30 12 10 3.79 32 32 197 105 15 Bert Blyleven 37 MIN 6.29 10 17 5.43 33 33 207.1 75 16 Dave Stewart 31 OAK 6.27 21 12 3.23 37 37 275.2 118 17 Charlie Hough 40 TEX 6.21 15 16 3.32 34 34 252 122 18 Mark Gubicza 25 KCR 6.11 20 8 2.70 35 35 269.2 149 19 Kirk McCaskill 27 CAL 6.03 8 6 4.31 23 23 146.1 90 20 Jeff Robinson 26 DET 5.97 13 6 2.98 24 23 172 128 21 Mike Boddicker 30 TOT 5.95 13 15 3.39 36 35 236 118 22 Bret Saberhagen 24 KCR 5.90 14 16 3.80 35 35 260.2 106 23 Bob Welch 31 OAK 5.81 17 9 3.64 36 36 244.2 105 24 Tom Candiotti 30 CLE 5.69 14 8 3.28 31 31 216.2 125 25 Storm Davis 26 OAK 5.67 16 7 3.70 33 33 201.2 103 26 Frank Tanana 34 DET 5.63 14 11 4.21 32 32 203 91 27 Jim Clancy 32 TOR 5.41 11 13 4.49 36 31 196.1 87 28 Floyd Bannister 33 KCR 5.37 12 13 4.33 31 31 189.1 93 29 Chuck Finley 25 CAL 5.14 9 15 4.17 31 31 194.1 93 30 Charlie Lea 31 MIN 4.98 7 7 4.85 24 23 130 84 31 Doyle Alexander 37 DET 4.95 14 11 4.32 34 34 229 88 32 Mike Campbell 24 SEA 4.94 6 10 5.89 20 20 114.2 71 33 Oil Can Boyd 28 BOS 4.93 9 7 5.34 23 23 129.2 78 34 Mike Witt 27 CAL 4.79 13 16 4.15 34 34 249.2 93 35 Jack McDowell 22 CHW 4.76 5 10 3.97 26 26 158.2 100 36 Rich Yett 25 CLE 4.76 9 6 4.62 23 22 134.1 89 37 Jay Tibbs 26 BAL 4.65 4 15 5.39 30 24 158.2 72 38 Mike Birkbeck 27 MIL 4.65 10 8 4.72 23 23 124 85 39 Charlie Leibrandt 31 KCR 4.63 13 12 3.19 35 35 243 126 40 Jimmy Key 27 TOR 4.45 12 5 3.29 21 21 131.1 119 41 Dave LaPoint 28 CHW 4.41 10 11 3.40 25 25 161.1 117 42 Rick Rhoden 35 NYY 4.29 12 12 4.29 30 30 197 92 43 Mike Flanagan 36 TOR 4.22 13 13 4.18 34 34 211 93 44 Jeff Russell 26 TEX 4.20 10 9 3.82 34 24 188.2 106 45 Chris Bosio 25 MIL 4.15 7 15 3.36 38 22 182 118 46 Tommy John 45 NYY 4.13 9 8 4.49 35 32 176.1 88 47 Dan Petry 29 CAL 4.12 3 9 4.38 22 22 139.2 88 48 Richard Dotson 29 NYY 4.05 12 9 5.00 32 29 171 79 49 Don August 24 MIL 4.00 13 7 3.09 24 22 148.1 129 50 Jose Bautista 23 BAL 3.98 6 15 4.30 33 25 171.2 91 51 Willie Fraser 24 CAL 3.98 12 13 5.41 34 32 194.2 71 52 Curt Young 28 OAK 3.97 11 8 4.14 26 26 156.1 92 53 John Farrell 25 CLE 3.94 14 10 4.24 31 30 210.1 97 54 Paul Kilgus 26 TEX 3.90 12 15 4.16 32 32 203.1 98 55 Bill Wegman 25 MIL 3.80 13 13 4.12 32 31 199 97 56 Allan Anderson 24 MIN 3.69 16 9 2.45 30 30 202.1 166 57 Walt Terrell 30 DET 3.66 7 16 3.97 29 29 206.1 96 58 Jerry Reuss 39 CHW 3.59 13 9 3.44 32 29 183 116 59 Scott Bailes 26 CLE 3.29 9 14 4.90 37 21 145 84 60 Bill Swift 26 SEA 2.42 8 12 4.59 38 24 174.2 91 61 Jeff Ballard 24 BAL 2.41 8 12 4.40 25 25 153.1 89
And here's the 2018 list.
Geez, I'd forgotten how tedious it was to line up all those columns. Anyway, I know what you're all thinking.
2018 Name Age Tm SO/9 W L ERA G GS IP ERA+
1 Chris Sale 29 BOS 13.50 12 4 1.97 23 23 146 221
2 Gerrit Cole 27 HOU 12.40 13 5 2.86 28 28 176.1 139
3 Justin Verlander 35 HOU 11.93 13 9 2.78 29 29 181 143
4 Trevor Bauer 27 CLE 11.60 12 6 2.22 25 25 166 198
5 James Paxton 29 SEA 11.60 11 5 3.74 25 25 144.1 109
6 Charlie Morton 34 HOU 10.95 13 3 3.14 26 26 152 127
7 Ryne Stanek 26 TBR 10.86 2 3 2.72 47 23 56.1 150
8 Blake Snell 25 TBR 10.50 17 5 2.02 26 26 151.2 201
9 Luis Severino 24 NYY 10.47 17 6 3.32 28 28 171 133
10 Carlos Carrasco 31 CLE 10.45 16 8 3.52 27 26 161 125
11 J.A. Happ 35 TOT 9.99 15 6 4.00 26 26 148.2 106
12 Eduardo Rodriguez 25 BOS 9.95 12 3 3.34 20 20 110.1 131
13 Lance McCullers 24 HOU 9.86 10 6 3.93 22 22 126 101
14 Chris Archer 29 TBR 9.56 3 5 4.31 17 17 96 94
15 Dylan Bundy 25 BAL 9.55 7 13 5.36 26 26 146 79
16 Tyler Skaggs 26 LAA 9.49 8 8 3.78 21 21 116.2 112
17 Lance Lynn 31 TOT 9.41 8 10 5.10 27 26 137.2 86
18 Jose Berrios 24 MIN 9.18 11 10 3.92 28 28 167.2 111
19 Rick Porcello 29 BOS 9.12 15 7 4.27 28 28 168.2 102
20 Mike Clevinger 27 CLE 9.09 10 7 3.17 27 27 170.1 139
21 Jake Odorizzi 28 MIN 9.06 5 9 4.41 28 28 143 99
22 Masahiro Tanaka 29 NYY 9.00 10 5 3.83 23 23 134 115
23 David Price 32 BOS 8.98 14 6 3.60 26 26 152.1 121
24 Cole Hamels 34 TEX 8.97 5 9 4.72 20 20 114.1 102
25 Corey Kluber 32 CLE 8.68 17 7 2.80 28 28 186.2 157
26 Andrew Heaney 27 LAA 8.53 8 8 4.09 25 25 152 104
27 Jakob Junis 25 KCR 8.47 8 12 4.32 26 26 154 99
28 Sonny Gray 28 NYY 8.46 10 8 4.96 27 22 123.1 89
29 Kyle Gibson 30 MIN 8.32 7 12 3.74 28 28 171 117
30 CC Sabathia 37 NYY 8.29 7 6 3.54 25 25 134.2 124
31 Trevor Cahill 30 OAK 8.28 6 3 3.60 18 18 100 114
32 Ian Kennedy 33 KCR 8.27 1 8 5.13 18 18 94.2 83
33 Sam Gaviglio 28 TOR 8.25 3 7 5.02 21 19 100.1 84
34 Danny Duffy 29 KCR 8.22 8 11 4.72 27 27 154.1 91
35 Matthew Boyd 27 DET 8.06 9 12 4.24 27 27 153 104
36 Jordan Zimmermann 32 DET 7.93 6 6 4.22 20 20 106.2 105
37 Marco Gonzales 26 SEA 7.91 12 9 4.32 25 25 145.2 94
38 Kevin Gausman 27 BAL 7.55 5 8 4.43 21 21 124 96
39 Michael Fulmer 25 DET 7.50 3 10 4.57 22 22 126 96
40 Nathan Eovaldi 28 TOT 7.44 5 7 4.20 18 18 94.1 100
41 Mike Minor 30 TEX 7.40 10 7 4.33 24 24 135 112
42 Aaron Sanchez 25 TOR 7.26 3 5 5.22 17 17 88 81
43 Felix Hernandez 32 SEA 7.25 8 13 5.55 27 26 147.2 73
44 Mike Fiers 33 TOT 7.18 10 6 3.38 26 26 146.2 129
45 Wade LeBlanc 33 SEA 7.16 8 3 3.71 27 22 135.2 109
46 James Shields 36 CHW 6.96 6 15 4.39 30 29 182.1 95
47 Francisco Liriano 34 DET 6.90 3 9 4.96 22 21 107 89
48 Jaime Barria 21 LAA 6.83 9 8 3.46 21 21 106.2 123
49 Dallas Keuchel 30 HOU 6.81 11 10 3.46 29 29 179.2 115
50 Marcus Stroman 27 TOR 6.77 4 9 5.54 19 19 102.1 76
51 Reynaldo Lopez 24 CHW 6.75 5 9 4.37 28 28 162.2 96
52 Lucas Giolito 23 CHW 6.62 10 9 5.66 27 27 151 74
53 Dylan Covey 26 CHW 6.54 5 12 5.61 21 17 96.1 75
54 Marco Estrada 34 TOR 6.51 7 11 5.43 24 24 124.1 77
55 Jason Hammel 35 KCR 6.40 2 12 6.02 33 18 121 71
56 Alex Cobb 30 BAL 6.11 4 15 5.11 25 25 144.1 83
57 Sean Manaea 26 OAK 6.05 12 9 3.59 27 27 160.2 115
58 Andrew Cashner 31 BAL 6.03 4 13 4.86 26 26 146.1 87
59 Mike Leake 30 SEA 5.73 8 9 4.25 27 27 165 95
60 Bartolo Colon 45 TEX 5.00 7 11 5.45 25 23 140.1 89
Jose Bautista used to pitch for the Orioles?
