Chasing the Big Numbers
Wednesday, August 26 2020 @ 05:15 PM EDT
Contributed by: Magpie
Back in the misty Days of Yore (it was mid-summer 2006), I published a series of articles on this very website that looked at the all time top 25 in each of five major counting categories. The idea was to assess the chances of some active players of cracking those lists. The categories were: a) Runs, b) RBIs, c) Hits, d) HRs.
I was also going to do pitcher wins and strikeouts, but I ran out of gas after wins and never made it to strikeouts. It would be interesting to carry out the same exercise today, but there's a fair bit of work involved and we'll just have to see how willing I am to do it. (I do have time on my hands, at least!) For now, I just thought I'd check in and see how the Top 25 has evolved over these 14 seasons. For the four hitting categories, anyway. It's been said before, and it's been wrong every time, but this time it may finally be true - we may very well have seen the last 300 game winner. Verlander and (maybe) Greinke could make it to 250, Scherzer and Kershaw should clear 200. Gerrit Cole has a chance to join them. Hard to see anyone else at the moment.
Runs Scored
I spent a fair bit of time moaning that no one takes Runs Scored as seriously as they ought to. It is, after all, how they decide who won and who lost the freaking game. We don't really have to add up how many hits and home runs your team had that day. We do want to know who scored the most runs. But the reason for this comparative neglect suddenly struck me the other day, while watching the TMBL in action down at Smythe Park (they're back, baby!) Perhaps I was remembering those long ago days when I myself stumbled around on the diamond. But it's this - when you scored a run, it didn't feel like you had done anything that crucial yourself. You'd managed to get yourself on base, but it was one of your teammates who had done the heavy lifting and made it possible for you to cross home plate. It always felt more satisfying to get a hit yourself than to score a run when someone else got a hit. It was just more fun to drive in a run rather than to be driven in. This is obviously just plain wrong on so many levels, but I think there might be something to it.
This was the leaderboard in 2006:
Best Number of Age during First Age during Last
Name Total Season 100 run seasons 100 runs season 100 run season
1. Rickey Henderson 2295 146 13 21 39
2. Ty Cobb 2246 147 11 22 40
3. Babe Ruth 2175 177 12 24 37
4. Henry Aaron 2174 127 15 21 36
5. Pete Rose 2165 130 10 22 37
6. Barry Bonds 2078 129 12 25 39
7. Willie Mays 2062 130 12 23 34
8. Cap Anson 1996 117 6 32 37
9. Stan Musial 1949 135 11 22 32
10. Lou Gehrig 1888 167 13 23 35
11. Tris Speaker 1882 137 7 24 35
12. Mel Ott 1859 138 9 20 33
13 Frank Robinson 1829 134 8 20 33
14. Eddie Collins 1821 137 6 22 37
15. Carl Yastrzemski 1816 125 2 27 30
16. Ted Williams 1798 150 9 20 32
17. Paul Molitor 1782 136 5 25 36
18. Charlie Gehringer 1774 144 12 24 37
19. Jimmie Foxx 1751 151 11 21 32
20. Honus Wagner 1736 114 6 26 34
21. Jim O'Rourke 1729 119 5 32 39
22. Jesse Burkett 1720 160 9 23 32
23. Willie Keeler 1719 165 8 22 29
24. Craig Biggio 1697 146 8 29 37
25. Billy Hamilton 1690 192 11 23 34
When I checked all these categories a few years later all the categories save this one, Runs Scored, had seen new names fight their way onto the leaderboard. And even this one was on the verge of change as Alex Rodriguez was about to pass Sliding Billy Hamilton. It was easy to see as far back as 2006 that Rodrigiuez and Derek Jeter were "mortal locks" to crack this leaderboard. Which they did. They now stand 8th and 11th all time, respectively. Albert Pujols also seemed a pretty safe bet, and Pujols now stands in 16th place all-time. He should overtake Craig Biggio before this abbreviated season is over. Alas, I also described Andruw Jones as the other mortal lock to crack the Top 25, having failed to notice the cliff he was walking briskly towards. Andruw didn't even crack the top 100 (he's 178th all-time.) At various times, I thought Johnny Damon (32nd), Manny Ramirez (60th), Jimmy Rollins (88th), Hanley Ramirez (298th), and Carl Crawford (339th) might have a shot of making this list but only Damon came close. The Top 25 now goes as far as O'Rourke, with his 1,729 runs - Rodriguez, Jeter, and Pujols have bumped Sliding Billy down to 28th place.
As you can probably guess, almost all the active players have already taken themselves out of contention (this is generally true for every counting category - we can almost always eliminate you by the time you're 28). For now, I see just three exceptions. The first is Mike Trout, naturally. Trout has scored about the same number of runs as Stan Musial at the same age, and he's quite close to Lou Gehrig, Henry Aaron, and Rickey Henderson himself. Here's a basic rule of baseball - if you're matching Lou Gehrig, you're doing it right. If Gehrig hadn't gotten sick, he would be the career leader in Runs Scored and Runs Batted In by a comfortable mile.
This abbreviated season will deal a serious blow to Trout's (and everybody else's) career numbers, but he's still got an excellent chance to crack the Top 10. Bryce Harper seems more of a longshot to me, but he started very young and he's making excellent progress. He's ahead of the pace established by fully half the guys on the leaderboard. Jose Altuve is a even more of a longshot, but he has scored more runs than Craig Biggio at the same age, and isn't very far behind Paul Molitor. It's extremely unlikely, but not impossible.
Runs Batted In
The pendulum has very much swung the other way when it comes to driving in runs. As I'm certain everyone understands, RBIs have been very much over-valued for much of the game's history. Today we look at the MVP Awards bestowed on George Bell and Juan Gonzalez and shake our heads sadly. Lord, what fools these mortals be. As we should. But still - it's not like anyone can drive in a lot of runs. Joe Carter was not chopped liver - in his best seasons he was a very good player. Juan Gonzalez may not have deserved two MVP Awards, but I would gladly put Peak Juan in the middle of my batting order, and you would too. And George Bell remains my personal hero.
Just wanted to get that off my chest. Driving in runs is a very good thing. The guys who do it are helping the team.
Back in 2006, the Top 25 ended with Nap Lajoie and his 1599 RBIs.
Best Number of Age during First Age during Last
Name Total Season 100 RBI seasons 100 RBI season 100 RBI season
1. Hank Aaron 2297 132 11 21 37
2. Babe Ruth 2217 171 13 24 38
3. Cap Anson 2076 147 7 32 39
4. Lou Gehrig 1995 184 13 23 35
5. Stan Musial 1951 131 10 25 36
6. Ty Cobb 1937 119 7 20 38
7. Jimmie Foxx 1922 175 13 21 33
8. Eddie Murray 1917 124 6 24 37
9. Willie Mays 1903 141 10 23 35
10. Mel Ott 1860 151 9 20 29
11. Barry Bonds 1853 137 12 25 39
12. Carl Yastrzemski 1844 121 5 27 37
13. Ted Williams 1839 159 9 20 32
14. Rafael Palmeiro 1835 148 10 28 38
15. Dave Winfield 1833 118 8 27 40
16. Al Simmons 1827 165 12 22 34
17. Frank Robinson 1812 136 6 23 33
18. Honus Wagner 1732 126 9 24 38
19. Reggie Jackson 1702 118 6 23 36
20. Cal Ripken 1695 114 4 22 35
21. Tony Perez 1652 129 7 25 38
22. Ernie Banks 1636 143 8 24 38
23. Harold Baines 1628 113 3 23 40
24. Goose Goslin 1609 138 11 23 35
25. Nap Lajoie 1599 127 4 22 29
Old Nap has fallen all the way to 37th on the leaderboard, which now goes down to Adrian Beltre and his 1707 RBIs. There are seven new names on the list. Some of them one could see coming way back in 2006: Alex Rodriguez (4th) , Ken Griffey (16th), and Manny Ramirez (19th). I was pretty sure about Albert Pujols (3rd) as well.
You could see even then that Miguel Cabrera (22 years old at the time) and Adrian Beltre (26 at the time) both had a chance, thanks to getting off to such a fine early start. Nevertheless, this old fool was skeptical about both of them. They were both third basemen at the time, and third basemen do not seem to age particularly well. And Beltre had only had one really impressive season to that point. (He wouldn't become a consistently great player until he hit his 30s. Go figure.) Cabrera (24th) and Pujols are still active, still adding to their total. The guy no one could have seen coming back in 2006 was David Ortiz (22nd). I duly considered him but blithely dismissed his chances because his career got off to a late start and he "sure doesn't look like someone who'll be playing when he's 40." (When he was 40, Big Papi hit .315/.401/.620, with 38 HRs and a league leading 127 RBIs. Go ahead. Mock me.)
Frank Thomas (26th), I said, would not last long enough to crack the leaderboard. I was wrong - the Big Hurt did indeed make the Top 25. It's just Miguel Cabrera overtook him about two weeks ago. I was pretty confident that Andruw Jones (119th) would make it, along with the original Vladimir Guerrero (57th). As already noted, Andruw plunged off a cliff, and Vlad broke down. I thought Miguel Tejada (114th) and Carlos Delgado (55th) would make a run at it, but Miguel turned out to be older than we knew and Carlos broke down. And I thought Jim Thome (28th) and Carlos Beltran (41st) would make a good run at it but fall short.Well, I got that about right.
As Chipper Jones (35th) was actually losing ground to Delgado every year (they're the same age), I didn't think he had any chance whatsoever. But Larry fooled me - he hung in there and passed Lajoie and Goose Goslin. So did Gary Sheffield (30th), who at the time had just lost almost an entire season to injury and about to turn 37. He had another 200 RBIs left in his bat anyway.
I think the oldest active player with a chance - and it's an extremely slim chance - to crack the bottom of this list is Freddie Freeman of the Braves, who has 822 RBIs at age 30. He's not even halfway there. But it's still more than Dave Winfield and David Ortiz had at the same age. It's not impossible. And Mike Trout's doing okay. He's nowhere near the top guys in this category, and a lot of the people he's ahead of were either late getting started or lost entire seasons early on. But he's still ahead of them. He's doing a little better than Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, to whom the same considerations apply.
Hits
Back in 2006, there were 25 men who had more than 3,000 hits. (The 26th man on the list, Roberto Clemente, had exactly 3,000.)
Best Number of Age During First Age During Last
Name Total Season 200 Hit Seasons 200 Hit Season 200 Hit Season
1. Pete Rose 4256 230 10 24 38
2. Ty Cobb 4189 248 9 20 37
3. Hank Aaron 3771 223 3 22 29
4. Stan Musial 3630 230 6 22 32
5. Tris Speaker 3514 222 4 24 35
6. Carl Yastrzemski 3419 191 0 -- --
7. Cap Anson 3418 187 0 -- --
8. Honus Wagner 3415 201 2 26 34
9. Paul Molitor 3319 225 4 25 39
10. Eddie Collins 3315 224 1 33 33
11. Willie Mays 3283 208 1 27 27
12. Eddie Murray 3255 186 0 -- --
13. Nap Lajoie 3242 232 4 26 35
14. Cal Ripken 3184 211 2 22 30
15. George Brett 3154 215 2 23 26
16. Paul Waner 3152 237 8 24 34
17. Robin Yount 3142 210 1 26 26
18. Tony Gwynn 3141 220 5 24 37
19. Dave Winfield 3110 193 0 -- --
20. Rickey Henderson 3055 179 0 -- --
21. Rod Carew 3053 239 4 27 31
22. Lou Brock 3023 206 4 25 32
23. Rafael Palmeiro 3020 203 1 26 26
24. Wade Boggs 3010 240 7 25 31
25. Al Kaline 3007 200 1 20 20
Craig Biggio was still playing regularly at that time and he was already so close to this milestone that it seemed a given that he'd come back in 2007 and finish the job. Which he did. He's now the 25th man on the leaderboard with 3,060 hits. It also seemed obvious that Rodriguez and Jeter would both clear 3,000 with room to spare and that both were indeed likely to make it into the Top 10 all-time. As you may recall, A-Rod's last few years were not filled with glory. He still stands 22nd all-time. Jeter, I thought, even had a chance, however remote, of catching everyone except Rose and Cobb by the time he was finished. He couldn't quite pull that off, but he led the AL in hits at age 38 and cruised past people like Willie Mays and Honus Wagner to finish 6th all-time.
There were three sluggers whose chances I liked: Pujols (15th) , Guerrero (87th), and Manny (91st). Albert made it, but the other two - not so much. I, alone of all my tribe, thought Johnny Damon (55th) could make it, but the tribe was right and I was not. And once again, I dismissed Adrian Beltre (17th) and once again Adrian Beltre made a fool off me. Ah, but my dark horse came through. Despite not getting his first MLB hit until he was 27 years old, Ichiro Suzuki (24th) rapped out 3,089 hits in the major leagues. He had another 1,278 hits in Japan and if he'd been playing in North America during those years he would have had at least - at least - another 1,500 major league hits and Rose and Cobb would be looking at his dust. As you know, they play a shorter season in Japan, and Suzuki cleared 200 hits in a season just once over there. He did that in each of his first ten years in the majors.
A couple of greybeards are trying to hang on long enough to clear 3,000. Miguel Cabrera only needs 165 hits. That's not a whole lot, and he's under contract for another three years at more than $30 million per season. He looks pretty washed up right now, but that's one helluva lot of money to just toss out the window. He should get an opportunity, at any rate. And Robinson Cano is three healthy seasons away. He hasn't actually had a healthy season since 2017, but he's under contract for another three seasons after this one. And at $24 million a year, he should also get an opportunity. They're more or less stuck with him, no? I mean, who are they going to trade him to? The Mets?
Jose Altuve is probably just coming out of his prime - he's 30 now - but he's already halfway to 3,000. He's quite capable of knocking out 200 hits in a season, as is indicated by the fact that he's done it four times. He is a second baseman, however. They get hurt, and Altuve has missed about a month out of each of the last two seasons. You still have to like his chances. Mike Trout, as always, in in good shape. He's about even with folks like Eddie Murray (13th), George Brett (18th), and Carl Yastrzemski (9th) at the same age. If anyone else is coming, it's too soon to see them on the horizon.
Home Runs
Back in 2006, there were just 20 men who had hit 500 HRs and the Top 25 went down to Dave Winfield at 465.
Best Number of Age During First Age During Last
Player HRs Season 30 HR Seasons 30 HR Season 30 HR Season
1. Hank Aaron 755 47 15 23 39
2. Babe Ruth 714 60 13 25 38
3. Barry Bonds 708 73 14 25 39
4. Willie Mays 660 52 11 23 35
5. Sammy Sosa 588 66 11 24 35
6. Frank Robinson 586 49 11 20 37
7. Mark McGwire 583 70 11 23 36
8. Harmon Killebrew 573 49 10 23 34
9. Rafael Palmeiro 569 47 10 28 38
10. Reggie Jackson 563 47 7 23 36
11. Mike Schmidt 548 48 13 24 37
12. Ken Griffey 536 56 8 23 35
12. Mickey Mantle 536 54 9 23 32
14. Jimmie Foxx 534 58 12 21 32
15. Ted Williams 521 43 8 20 38
15. Willie McCovey 521 45 7 25 32
17. Eddie Mathews 512 47 10 21 33
17. Ernie Banks 512 47 7 24 37
19. Mel Ott 511 42 8 20 33
20. Eddie Murray 504 33 5 24 31
21. Lou Gehrig 493 49 10 24 34
21. Fred McGriff 493 37 10 24 38
23. Willie Stargell 475 48 6 26 39
23. Stan Musial 475 39 6 27 34
25. Dave Winfield 465 37 3 27 31
However, there were a great many sluggers chasing after them. It was very, very easy to see that the bar was going to be raised. I named 10 players I thought would clear 500 homers. Six of them did so - Rodriguez (4th), Pujols (6th), Thome (8th), Manny (15th), Thomas (20th), and Sheffield (26th), - along with one I didn't see coming - David Ortiz (17th), once more. So there are now 27 men with more than 500 homers, and Winfield has tumbled all the way down to 36th place. The 25th man is Mel Ott with his 511, and I'm so old I remember when Ott was the all-time NL leader and one of just five men with 500 HRs.
Miguel Cabrera needs 30 HRs to catch Ott and his contract may keep him around long enough to do that. Giancarlo Stanton's health record is not good, but he's matching the pace set by Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth, among others, which is a pretty good position to be in.
As always, Mike Trout is in excellent shape. He's basically even with Henry Aaron and Frank Robinson at this point. He's behind the boy wonders (Griffey and Rodriguez) but he's well ahead of Bonds and Ruth. And Bryce Harper's doing fine - he's about even with Harmon Killebrew. Nolan Arenado is almost in a dead heat with Mike Schmidt, so he would have to be another contender.
And chances are some random veteran - say, someone like Paul Goldschmidt or Anthony Rizzo - ages unexpectedly well and makes a surprising run at 500.
6 comments
https://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20200826155308125