Window Shopping The 2024 MLB Free Agents

Monday, November 18 2024 @ 08:36 AM EST

Contributed by: Eephus

Haven't been writing much in these parts lately, and seeing as this is one of my favourite annual traditions...


It's that time of year again! The leaves are falling, the champions have polished off their considerable amounts of champagne... it is indeed now the silly season where even the most foolish of predictions can run amok. And as an extremely silly and foolish person myself, I feel as qualified for this task as ever. 

We're working off of Fangraphs Top 50 list this time around, and while most of this is going to be opinion-based rather than scientific (I have my biases) I'll attempt to make most of my observations and predictions as thoughtful as possible. Or at the very least, somewhat amusing.  

Lets roll! Also, I'm using the BBref version of WAR.


#1. Juan Soto - OF, New York Yankees (OPS .989, 7.9 WAR)

The fact that Soto isn't even technically in his prime yet, has been astoundingly healthy throughout his career, and has guys like Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr, Mickey Mantle and Mike Trout as his most similar hitters at age 25... there's little doubt Soto is the prize of this free agent market and is about to be rewarded appropriately. 

There is no team in baseball history that couldn't find a spot for this kind of bat. He does seem like such a perfect fit as a Yankee (ugh!) and could probably hit 200 home runs between now and before he turns 30 with that stupid short right field porch (hell, give me 100 BP pitches, as a LH I bet I could hit at least one out in New Yankee Stadium, Costanza style).
 
Problem is... do the Yankees have the money to keep him? Probably: they are the freaking Yankees after all... but it isn't so automatic. One could see the crosstown Mets making a serious bid, the Dodgers are always lingering and seemingly have more money to spend than several Micronesian countries... or maybe some other dark horse emerges and swoops on in, which is where we come in. 

The Blue Jays make sense as that dark horse, and maybe it's the gloom of the current world finally wrecking my objectivity for good (this is Kamp Krusty and I'm Bart in the corner mumbling "Krusty is coming! Krusty is coming!)... but I genuinely think we have a chance. 

Not a great chance, hell no... I wouldn't wager on it, but I also wouldn't be totally shocked if Toronto landed Soto. He's basically exactly what the team needs, and money be damned getting him would seriously rejuvenate a currently very (and mostly rightfully) cynical fanbase. I've heard the argument they should just throw the money they had set for Ohtani at Soto, but that was indeed a once in a generation situation and international investment opportunity. Getting Soto would boost the on-field team and maybe get some more butts in seats, however considering Ohtani's worldwide appeal and superstardom Soto isn't really comparable in that way. Still... Rogers oozes money, they just bought MLSE fer-cryin'out-loud... they've been willing to spend before and so lets see it again.

Anyhow, best odds are Soto stays in New York... just depends if it's in the Bronx or a move to Queens. Then we can spend all winter talking ourselves into Michael Conforto instead. Hmmm... so much for my jokes I guess.


#2. Willy Adames - SS, Milwaukee Brewers (.794 OPS, 3.1 WAR)

It's quite a drop from first to second on this year's list, going from one of the greatest hitters of this generation to a zero time all-star. No offense to Adames, who is a very very good player that generally gives you a bit of everything: quality defender, some power from the shortstop position and will draw some walks for you. He's more of a really solid #2 hitter on a contending team than a perfect middle of the order compliment for Guerrero Jr, and one figures he'd be sliding over to third base on this current construction of the Blue Jays (that can of course change, but I doubt the incumbent is getting dealt at his current nadir of value). 

Adames just screams like the kind of guy who gets overpaid by a middling team desperate for a big move... which does describe the Jays, true... but signing him really feels like a Giants move. He is good! Adames even at his floor makes your team better. Just not quite "superstar" good, and coming off a career year that's what you'll be paying for.   


#3. Alex Bregman - 3B, Houston Astros (.768, 4.1 WAR)        

The age (Bregman turns 31 at the start of the season) reminds a lot of the last longtime Astro to cash in north of the border. While I've always liked Bregman a lot as a player and he's been quite consistent for the most part (though his age 24-25 power surge looks quite out of place) one thinks a long contract might not look so hot those final few years (also sounds familiar eh). 

In fact, the decline appeared to already be in motion until he turned things around in the second half of 2024 (an .833 OPS compared to a .730). There are some warning signs! Positives though: Bregman, assuming he has a couple typical years left in him, would fill the hole at third base and remains a very good fielder. Never really a Gold Glove guy and *looks up stats* oh geez he won the Gold Glove just this past season? Well... now that Matt Chapman is in the National League I guess that clicks. 

Again, I really like the player but the career numbers are clearly juiced by those two MVP-level seasons and it's unlikely he's that guy ever again. More of an excellent complimentary player than a main ticket. He'd be a nice addition but not the starry splash the name recognition makes it appear to be. If the Blue Jays sign him... thumbs up for sure but they still need so much more.   


#4. Corbin Burnes - SP, Baltimore Orioles (15-9, 2.92, 3.4 WAR)

Burnes didn't miss a beat moving from the gentler NL Central into the gauntlet of the AL East... although his strikeout rate has continued to plummet (12.6, 10.8, 9.3 to 8.4 this past season). He's still a workhorse who is stingy on both baserunners and allowing runs... and while pitchers are inherently unpredictable, Burnes seems like a good bet to remain dominant at least for a couple more years, having just turned 30 a few weeks ago. While splashy, seems like adding Burnes wouldn't be the big play for the Blue Jays: I'll predict they shop around in the next tier of pitching rather than the absolute top guy here, if they shop for starting pitching at all. 


#5. Gerrit Cole - SP, New York Yankees (8-5, 3.41, 2.0 WAR)

He's not leaving the Yankees, full stop. They're already renegotiating his contract.

If Soto resigns in the Bronx and they add some other quality bat (Christian Walker perhaps)... just go re-watch the 5th inning against the Dodgers wherein the Yankees invent entirely new ways of blowing a big lead. I don't much care for Gerrit Cole one bit and his exasperation (much of it his own fault for not covering first base) simply warms my battered cold spirit.


#6. Blake Snell - SP, San Francisco Giants (5-3, 3.12, 2.1 WAR)

I've never trusted the health. While he's clearly often exceptional when he can take the mound, he's typically been a 100-120 inning per season guy... also not helped by that he can walk the entire ballpark. Hitters don't know where his pitches are going and neither does he. 

The stuff is electric, of course, and if you get 30 starts out of him he's an instant Cy Young contender. Even 20-25 you're probably smiling. Coming off a season he only pitched 104 innings... if you can get him at a reasonable amount this is the kind of high-reward gamble I could get behind. But he's a big risk to miss half the season at the same time. Someone is going to jump into the deep end, me thinks. Best of luck to ya.


#7. Max Fried - SP, Atlanta Barves (11-10, 3.25, 3.5 WAR)

While the tantalizing qualities aren't nearly as wild as Snell's (nor the stuff) Fried's results have been nearly as good. He's at 73-36, 3.07 for his career, has been generally healthy with 2023 as an exception, and is still in his general pitching prime about to turn 31. You could see a Gausman-like deal here, probably a fair bit more annually... but he'd immediately at worst become the second best pitcher on the team.  Again, maybe not the biggest area of team need considering how much they might have to spend... but he would be a great addition. Dude is a terrific arm.


#8. Jack Flaherty - SP, Detroit Tigers/Los Angeles Dodgers (13-7, 3.17, 3.1 WAR)

Maybe getting out of St. Louis was all he needed? Or is it a fluke career/comeback year at a perfect time after years in the wilderness? 

Personally I'm not a believer, although he is young enough (29 next season) to have figured something out. He was extremely good until 2022 when injuries started eating him up. Not worthy of Fried/Burnes like money of course, and despite the ERA he pitched merely okay as a Dodger (his up and down postseason performance evidence of that). Someone is gonna believe in the youth and the talent and so will open up the bank. Not convinced I want it to be us, but I've been wrong many times before. 


#9. Ha-Seong Kim - SS, San Diego Padres (.700 OPS, 2.6 WAR)

Like the player, not the fit. Don't we already have a bunch of these types? Terrific middle infield defender without much pop? He's certainly more willing to take a walk than Ernie Clement (one suspects the entire planet of Earth is) and his ability to swipe some bags could make him an intriguing leadoff option seeing as I think we can all agree Springer's days there are not long if the team wants to genuinely contend. 

Kim will be 29 and you could talk me into him being a temporary solution at second base and occasional shortstop (although he is a far better fielder than Bichette so... probably a tough sell). Also considering what a tough place San Diego is on hitters (Kim's slugging percentage is 35 points better on the road)... yeah lets rock and roll, I think Arden Zwelling agrees as well. However... Kim cannot be the big position player add. Great player, but like I said bringing him in is doubling down on a strength not a need, and this front office has done that before to very infuriating results. 


#10. Gleyber Torres - 2B, New York Yankees (.709 OPS, 1.8 WAR)

A definite change of scenery guy, and I'm intrigued. 

New York seems completely fed up with him (tough crowd but he does have his weird lapses) and honestly his career could go in any number of directions. Wouldn't surprise me if it all clicks somewhere and he hits 30 homers as a middle infielder, or he becomes a barely passable DH and washes out of the league in a few years. He turns 28 in December and I like the idea of buying low on the potential, even if he is kind of a butcher as a defender. Hey, pure defensive guys! We got plenty of those! 

Does Torres have the arm for third base? He played there a little in the minors. An interesting case no doubt, I like the power potential, and he really gets on base. All depends on if that pop comes back, and there may be an injury explanation for it. On a short "prove it" contract... yeah lets do it. As an upside play it's a great roll of the dice, and even the floor and youth is better than you think.  


#11. Teoscar Hernandez - OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (.840 OPS, 4.3 WAR)

That worked out pretty darn well for our old friend Teo, didn't it? A career high in homers (including winning the derby) and several memorable post-season moments (don't forget he hit two dingers in the infamous 8-1 game... which barring an unlikely reunion likely stands as his forever final game in Blue Jay blue). An incredibly fun player with still tremendous power (the Seattle year seems like the fluke) and this is his best chance to get legit paid. Hope he stays in LA or, depending on what happens with Soto... please not New York. 


#12. Anthony Santander - OF, Baltimore Orioles (.814 OPS, 2.9 WAR)

Reliable but merely very good power hitting corner outfielder hits a bunch of homers in contract year, will cash in. 

He's a couple years younger than Hernandez but not quite the same caliber of power bat (and with a career OBP of .307 and negative defense... his value is tied entirely in his ability to sock dingers). There's a good chance Santander is still this guy for a few more years, clubbing lots of home runs while slowly shifting into a pure DH role (and the switch hitting is useful)... alas the one dimensional aspect of Santander makes me hesitant. Even Kendrys Morales could get on base a little bit. Maybe Santander becomes the next Nelson Cruz and hits home runs seemingly forever, but there's also a reason Cruz is such a memorable player. Not a lot of dudes end up doing that one thing so long with that specific profile.


#13. Pete Alonso - 1B, New York Mets (.788 OPS, 2.6 WAR)

In theory, if we're talking versatility... Santander is the more valuable player than Alonso (who is limited to first base only) and can also switch hit. In theory.

I quite like Alonso's offensive profile more: more on-base ability, typically more power, and the awesome nickname. If he's really looking for and expecting 200 million I don't think I like him that much more... especially when considering he only plays one position currently occupied by the Blue Jays best player (although I still like the idea of Vlad Jr. getting 40-50ish starts at third in such a scenario... not ideal but I think he's up to it). 

The 40 homer version of the Polar Bear would be quite an addition to this team and indeed that second dangerous middle of the order bat. If he's more the 2024 version going forward... that's still a solid hitter but ecch there's a dicey contract should he continue to slide. Regardless, I'd approve of the move if it is reasonable. But Christian Walker and a Goldschmidt bounceback also are floating around as potentially shorter and immediately as useful contributions.  


#14. Shane Bieber - SP, Cleveland Guardians (2-0, two starts before getting injured)

A very very good pitcher when healthy, arguably on the same level of Corbin Burnes just without the innings. Like Burnes, the drop in strikeouts has been noticeable... and Bieber is coming off Tommy John surgery, so you're not completely sure how long it's going to take him to regain that previous form, if he even does. 

Bieber was more of a pinpoint command guy than somebody heating up the radar gun, so even if the fastball comes back around 90 instead of 93 he can probably get by. Much like the Blue Jays did with Chad Green, I could envision a creatively structured contract while rolling the dice on him, although in Alek Manoah they already have a Tommy John wildcard returning in the back half of 2025. Could make a worse gamble I suppose, and it would be a compelling move regardless.


#15. Sean Manaea - SP, New York Mets (12-6, 3.47, 3.0 WAR)

I have no clue what to expect from this dude anymore. Seems clear he figured out something in the second half of 2024 by dropping his arm angle ala Chris Sale (the broadcast wouldn't shut-up about it, but it was noticeable) and he still racks up the strikeouts... but he'll be turning 33 and looking to capitalize. Not sure I like the risk, but I was wrong about Kikuchi once upon a time as well. Feel like Manaea is best served staying in New York anyhow.


#16. Yusei Kikuchi - SP, Toronto Blue Jays/Houston Astros (9-10, 4.05, 1.4 WAR)

Speaking of Yusei... we've talked about him a ton in these parts and we pretty much know who he is. Was damn great in Houston, somewhat unlucky in Toronto, and depending on how Jake Bloss shakes out (or if Will Wagner continues looking the part a major league hitter, or Joey Loperfido figures out how to be one) this might be a "good for both sides" kind of deal... for now I like him a lot but probably not at what he'll be looking for. 


#17. Nathan Eovaldi - SP, Texas Rangers (12-8, 3.80, 2.3 WAR)

I feel like every time I write one of these pieces, there's Eovaldi and his quality mid-rotation-ness out there as a free agent. His 30s career has been remarkably consistent, he still misses bats, has playoff pedigree (and remains a playoff quality starter) while still rarely walking anybody. He'll be 35 next season and the obvious question is how much longer can he keep up this reliable floor of quality and innings... but if he can keep it up a while longer he still slots into any rotation and won't be wildly expensive because of his age. Sure!


#18. Christian Walker - 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.803 OPS, 2.6 WAR)

He'll be 34, which is concerning. He's also won three straight gold gloves, which does suggest his athleticism hasn't slipped too much. Much of what he brings with the stick is similar to the Alonso package just without the splashy name recognition or perceived upside... but I'm extremely suspicious of power hitters coming from Arizona (Varsho *cough*) rather than the rather spacious Citi Field. 

Walker's age will make him much cheaper than the Polar Bear, but leaving Chase Field might make him look more like an average bat than a quality middle of the order one. Extremely lukewarm on this one, even if I do like him overall as a player. It's just that so much of his value is tied in actually playing first base... and Guerrrero Jr. I figure is still going to be playing at least half his games there in 2025. Kind of an awkward fit unless Vlad is going to third full time, which is it's own separately bad idea. 


#19. Tanner Scott - RP, Miami Marlins/San Diego Padres (9-6, 1.75, 4.0 WAR)

The Blue Jays need to fix their painfully awful bullpen to even have a prayer in 2025, and Tanner Scott is the best reliever that money can buy. 

Scott has been extremely good the past couple years, is only 30... but this all comes after a stretch of not goodness before (lots of strikeouts, plenty of walks). He still loses the zone more than you'd like, with most of his recent success coming off just being impossible to hit (which admittedly is a nice skill to have). I don't quite see this particular Blue Jays front office investing so much in this level of reliever anyhow: they tend to like shopping in the middle, safer tier, and while Scott could indeed end up being truly elite for quite some time he won't be a bargain.


#20. Blake Treinen - RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (7-3, 1.93, 1.4 WAR)

As the postseason showed... Treinen has just a filthy slider, and even with the sinker lacking it's previous sizzle, when relief shopping you definitely want to bet on a truly elite pitch even if the man throwing it is 37. 

Alas, he's also a bit of a jerk and coming off a couple seasons before this one wherein he barely pitched, and his playoff heroics will probably get somebody to overpay for him. No thanks. 


#21. Tyler O'Neill - OF, Boston Red Sox (.847 OPS, 2.6 WAR)

He's Canadian! He's still young! (turns 30 next June) He hits home runs! He doesn't do much else (his career has basically been a roller coaster ride) and those final two years as a Cardinal do concern me. He also gets hurt a lot. Could finally have realized his talent as a useful 30+ homer guy? Could just be an expensive platoon bat (his .209/.290/.403 versus RHP this past season for the Red Sox also concerns me). Nevertheless, he's a legitimate lefty-masher. Worth a looksy, me thinks... even if I don't believe in the random Gold Glove.


#22. Jurickson Profar - OF, San Diego Padres (.839 OPS, 3.7 WAR)

The Nathan Eovaldi of free agent position players... Profar is just always here. He's a weird player: a career OPS+ of 113 as a Padre, considerably below average everywhere else. Not a good outfielder, not even in left-field... but he has decent power, draws walks and strikes out less than the average dude. Myself... I don't trust him outside of San Diego (this is a guy who recently posted an OPS of .680 in freaking Colorado) but surely somebody will try and unlock the Padre version of Profar somewhere. Not here, please. This screams "bad contract" unless he's in those 80s McDonald's colours, for whatever reason.  


#23. Nick Martinez - SP, Cincinnati Reds (10-7, 3.10, 4.0 WAR) -- accepted Reds qualifying offer

Yowza... what a season! A forgettable swingman on the Rangers teams of the mid 2010s, Martinez went to pitch in Japan for four seasons, returned to MLB with the Padres in 2022 and was much more effective in that same swingman role. He signed up with the Reds for 2024 and was even better: pitching in 42 games (16 starts), 142.1 innings and walking only 18(!) to 116 strikeouts. He has a player option for 12 million but one imagines he'll forgo that in search of a longer deal somewhere, and as a potentially cheap-ish rotation option he is intriguing. Possibly this season's version of Seth Lugo: an older starter (34) with considerable relief experience who doesn't overpower but has a bunch of weapons he can throw strikes with. FanGraphs wrote the exact same thing and I swear I thought of the Lugo comparison before reading their blurb. Honest! 


#24. Walker Buehler - SP, Los Angeles (1-6, 5.38, -1.3 WAR)

Buehler... Buehler... Buehler... 

Despite his World Series heroics (he'd never recorded an MLB save previously) Walker had a difficult return to the majors after missing most of 2022 and 2023 to injury. There's enough of a track record (he'd been an all-star in 2019 and 2021) for the 30 year old to get a look somewhere, and considering the constant pitching injury issues of the Dodgers it might not even be a shock to see Buehler back in LA on a pillow contract. Still, if he did shake loose... the upside is mighty tantalizing on a short deal. 


#25. Nick Pivetta - SP, Boston Red Sox (6-12, 4.14, 1.8 WAR)

A weird season for the native of Victoria. He's generally been a quality back rotation starter since joining the American League, finally cut down on the walks without losing the strong strikeout rate... and lost 12 games for his trouble on a .500ish Boston team. 

Pivetta has always been fairly prone to homers and this year it jumped up to 4.7 percent... which is not what you want. It's like your dollar store version of Nathan Eovaldi, though maybe still some upside and still a few years younger... this is likely pretty much all you can realistically hope for. Maybe a larger park helps the homers come down but even so this is the definition of an okay number four starter.  


#26. Luis Severino - SP, New York Mets (11-7, 3.91, 1.6 WAR)

He looked like the next young ace of the Yankees back in the mid-2010s, had two seasons (2017-18) where it seemed to be happening and he scared the living Timothy Dalton daylights out of me... then the injuries got him. 

Severino pitched just seven MLB games in three years, and after a 2022 bounceback his 2023 was bad enough (4-8, 6.65) for the Yankees to say farewell. He crosses over to Queens, puts up his first 182 inning season in over half a decade... and while he wasn't quite as purely dominant as that two year run in the Bronx, Severino gave the Mets more than they could've asked for on their 13 million bucks. He'll be seeking multiple years guaranteed this go-around, as a 31 year old, and if the injury issues (always a big if with pitchers) are behind him he's got a strong chance to be a solid mid-rotation arm for the immediate future. The injury woes robbed him of his once-flamethrower velocity but he's mixed in more movement on his fastball to compensate. If the Blue Jays are serious about adding another starter, honestly this isn't a bad bet. 


#27. Jeff Hoffman - RP, Philadelphia Phillies (3-3, 2.17, 2.0 WAR)

How is this dude almost 32 already? Shipping him off in the Tulowitzki trade wasn't that long ago... although I suppose Hoffman is the only player in that trade still active (*edit: not true, both Miguel Castro and Jesus Tinoco pitched for MLB teams in 2024).

Hoffman has taken a common path to becoming a dominant reliever, his sorry recent playoff showing that withstanding (nobody in that Phillies pen was pitching sharply in October anyhow, I doubt the ghost of Tug McGraw could've saved them). He was generally awful as a Rockie (these things happen), then Cincinnati got a hold of him and after 11 starts ditched the whole starting pitcher thing. He was pretty meh at the relief thing as a Red but the Phillies picked him up and suddenly the walks and hits disappeared, while the strikeouts jumped. That always helps, especially in contract years. 

Not sure I buy it at any significant amount of money, but guys like this always get paid in the hopes they've finally unlocked all that tasty potential (see another former Red in Robert Stephenson). Sometimes you get Wade Davis (Royals version) and sometimes you get Wade Davis (Rockies version). I tend to lean the latter on big relief contracts.  


#28. Clay Holmes - RP, New York Yankees (3-5, 3.14, 0.7 WAR)

For a guy so constantly talked about having lost his closer's role during New York's playoff run, aside from a few more hits Holmes was pretty much the same guy he'd always been. Personally, I like the idea of adding him. That super-sinker can be downright nasty, he's nearly impossible to hit one over the fence on, and he keeps the free passes reasonably under control. I think he's a safer bet as a relief option than anyone we've discussed on this list so far, although maybe not with the super high upside. Jordan Romano is such a question mark, you can bring in Holmes with a strong implication he is going to be finishing games. 


#29. Joc Pederson - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (.908 OPS, 2.9 WAR)

The mirror universe version of Tyler O'Neill: all Pederson does is destroy right-handed pitching. Get both! Would be a fine (though expensive) platoon. One of them has to grow a goatee though, just so we know which is the evil one.


#30. Max Scherzer - SP, Texas Rangers (2-4, 3.95, 0.4 WAR)

I've always loved watching Mad Max pitch. Problem is, he's about to turn 41 in July and the durability is starting to become a problem. Power pitchers rarely bounce back in their age 41 season, usually the opposite (Verlander's rough 2024 is proof of that) and while I would absolutely adore it if the Blue Jays made such a gamble... there is as much a chance that his long impressive career is cooked. But I hope not. He is so much fun.


#31. Charlie Morton - SP, Atlanta Barves (8-10, 4.19, 1.1 WAR)

Morton is even older than Scherzer, and while his ability to still make 30 starts every darn year is impressive... the quality of those innings have been slipping. Throw him at the wall as your veteran number five starter? He's wily and probably has another decent year or two if the termites stay away. But he's also going to be 41 several months before the 2025 season starts. Time waits for no one. 


#32. Justin Verlander - SP, Houston Astros (5-6, 5.48, -0.3 WAR)

As I've said every year Verlander has been out here... it would be cool to see Verlander finally throw a no-hitter for the Blue Jays instead of against them. 

Like Mad Max, he might be near the end though. He'll be 42(!) when the season starts and is coming off his worst non-rookie season. Love to see him stick around as long as possible, and the underlying stats suggest was only bleh instead of truly as bad as ERA suggests... but at a point a guy like this has done and achieved everything the game can offer. You don't want the game to lose him, but you understand when and how it passes him by. Hope he can do what few are gifted to do: bounce back and go out on your own terms, Verlander. 


#33. Andrew Heaney - SP, Texas Rangers (5-14, 4.28, 0.8 WAR)

Another guy who always seem to be bouncing around at this particular stage of their career. Heaney has settled into your generic average left-handed starter, ideally not somebody starting playoff games for you but is decent-ish enough to maybe help get you there via soaking up innings at a strong clip. Heaney has had the career Steven Matz should've had. Heaney's stuff was likewise always intriguing but he's 34 now, the juice is slipping and this is more or less what he is anyhow. Meh. 


#34. Frankie Montas - SP, Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers (7-11, 4.84, 0.6 WAR)

Step right up and behold yet another extremely average/to-below average MLB starter! He pitches innings! Serves up dingers! Loses the strikezone more than you'd prefer! Montas has been something notable in the past and this was his first full season staying on a mound in a while... so maaaaybe if you squint hard enough there's something else there? But 6-10 wins, about 150 mediocre innings feels about right. If he's even healthy. We are indeed in the zone of very unexciting starting pitchers. 


#35. Trevor Williams - SP, Washington Nationals (6-1, 2.03, 2.6 WAR)

Unlike the Montas or Heaneys of the world, Williams at least holds some intrigue being a soft tosser who gets by on guile and movement. He'll surrender plenty of moonshots (he's led the league twice) and allowing only three in 66.2 innings last year just screams "bizarre fluke" considering his career. I genuinely enjoy guys succeed with this type of stuff (my pitching career can relate) but it's such a high-wire act that can fall apart very quickly in this particular era of super-charged velocity and hitters swinging for the fences. 

Still, you can still succeed when you know what the hell you're doing. 


#36. Alex Cobb - SP, Cleveland Guardians (2-1, 2.76, 0.2 WAR)

Another guy I've always enjoyed watching... biting two-seamers and nasty changeup/splitter things. Surprisingly, aside from this past year he's been able to pitch probably more than you think the past few seasons, both for the Angels and Giants... whereas his considerable shakiness in the 2024 postseason for Cleveland surely couldn't have been helped by his year-long injury/blister issues. A flyer I wouldn't mind bringing in to fill out the back of the rotation, even if he's just a five-and-dive guy at this point. Multiple years of commitment? I don't like Cobb quite that much. 


#37. Aroldis Chapman - RP, Pittsburgh Pirates (5-5, 3.79, 0.4 WAR)

Nope. 


#38. Kenley Jansen - RP, Boston Red Sox (4-2, 3.29, 27 SV, 1.3 WAR)

Not gonna lie, I've got a soft spot for the big fella from Curacao (he and I were born the same month!) and I think there's still enough there in Jansen to be a useful 7th/8th inning dude in a playoff bullpen. He isn't the unhittable monster he was in his early Dodger days, but he's settled in as a reliable late inning option that can get whiffs and limit damage. The Jays bullpen would need more than this, but Jansen could be a fine stabilizing veteran add (with lots of closing experience) on a short deal. Sign me up.


#39. Kirby Yates - RP, Texas Rangers (7-2, 1.17, 33 SV, 3.3 WAR)

Do we try this again? Yates has been his old self since leaving Blue Jay land... giving Atlanta a fine middle relief season and then being ridiculously untouchable for the Rangers this past season. He'll be 38 in the spring and the health track record is, as we remember, not ideal... and expecting another season of a 1.17 ERA is not reasonable. But he clearly is legit when toeing the rubber and his splitter still gets tons of whiffs. Tough one.


#40. Carlos Estevez - RP, Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Angels (4-5, 2.45, 26 SV, 2.1 WAR)

The stuff looks damn great and he finally figured out where it was going at the perfect time for the Angels and Phils (at least until the postseason for the latter). You could talk me into it but also at age 31, he's probably getting multiple years and that's where I get nervous... not to mention he seems to be a "trendy" bullpen pick. He seems to be a guy still with a bunch of pitches instead of two that are totally lethal, which can be problematic in short outings. As a pitcher I can relate: you've got four things that feel good that day but you're only throwing one inning... too many options in a tiny window, not all of them can fit through that space.
 


#41. Paul Goldschmidt - 1B, St.Louis Cardinals (.716 OPS, 1.3 WAR)

We were born the exact same day, and at 37 we're both looking well past our athletic primes. Come on Paul! I like Goldy a lot and much of this outlier 2024 season can be traced to a dreadful first half (a .664 OPS compared to .799 in the second). If he can just be that second half guy, which was essentially his 2023 season... he's a useful supporting bat. If he has one more 2022 season in him... well that would work just fine too but lets not get too greedy quite yet. 

It's tough with hitters of this certain age (tell me about it): Goldschmidt could be another smart Brandon Belt-like signing of a veteran guy (Belt was slightly younger at 35) or he could be about to totally fall off the cliff. Hey, it's why he's all the way down here on the list despite his fabulous career! Honestly... you could talk me into this one over Alonso, assuming they sign somebody much much better (Soto/Bregman) to fill out things. Banking on a Goldy bounceback as your key primary "fix the offense" move... kinda reeks of the Votto signing and if so please stop ruining September 10 birthdays for this franchise. Enough already. 

Random fact! Paul Goldschmidt has stolen 11 bases each of the last two seasons so at least he isn't a total base clogger... one presumes.                           


#42. Carlos Santana - 1B, Minnesota Twins (.749, 2.5 WAR)

Speaking of defying time... while I'm not convinced a 38 year old was the best defensive first baseman in the American League... at this point we should just sign him so he can stop torturing us with his constant clutch hits. Truly the Blue Jay Killer of our time. Naturally, we'll sign him and he'll stink... after being released he signs on with the Royals and gets a decisive hit in a Wild Card game. Evil ways, man.  


#43. Danny Jansen - C, Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox (.658, 0.7 WAR)

We know him well. After a three year stretch as one of the best hitting catchers in the game (also always getting hurt during those hot streaks... pull your hands in Danny!) Jano finally remained mostly healthy for an entire season and... well he hit like a catcher. Very very hard to see what the market is going to look like for him... somebody will some calling since he's still the best option on the market... but there's a lot of uncertainty here in that stick and that body. Best of luck to him. 


#44. Michael Conforto - OF, San Francisco Giants (.759, 1.3 WAR)

The shoulder injury seems to have zapped his power, as it was, leaving Conforto as a still useful but defensively weak outfield bat, at the wrong side of 30 no less. Would've been a compelling gamble a few winters ago, now in retrospect it would've worked out merely okay. I guess if the Blue Jays are content with another off-season of half-measures and selling bounce-back hope... well I've already said it haven't I. 


#45. Paul Sewald - RP, Arizona Diamondbacks (0.2 WAR, 16 SV, 39.2 IP, 4.31 ERA)

You could do worse I suppose, he's coming off of a weird neck injury season, and despite his age (34) some relievers just have different aging curves. Speaking of that...


#46. David Robertson - RP, Texas Rangers (1.7 WAR, 72 IP, 3.00 ERA)

Robertson is about to turn 40 and yet is still missing bats and pitching as effectively as ever. As reliable as they come despite never being blessed with radar gun juice, Robertson keeps getting whiffs with his cutter/curveball combo (especially the cutter... seems sharing a bullpen bench with the Great Mariano might've taught him a few things). He's spent the past several years wandering the league and pitching well everywhere... it's one of those things you can count on until you see it finally not happen. Could be a cheap-ish and smart signing.


#47. Justin Turner - DH, Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners (.737 OPS, 1.5 WAR)

Was notably better in Seattle than Toronto, where a pair of considerable death spiral-like slumps really wrecked his numbers. Still, I think we've seen enough of this experience not to seek repeating it. 


#48. Kyle Hart - SP

A lefty who went off to the KBO with considerable success and is now looking to break back into the major leagues. Wouldn't be the first time, and Rich Hill is certainly a case of a late-career lefty starter finding a run of great effectiveness... but honestly I'd never even heard of this Hart dude until writing this sentence. Lets move on.


#49. Jose Quintana - SP, New York Mets (2.5 WAR. 10-10, 3.75 ERA)

A little respect? I'm 99.9 percent certain that no fan is going to be excited when their team signs this guy to the multi-year contract he has clearly earned, seeing as Quintana is neither young (36 in January) nor does he miss bats (7.1 K/9). Yet throughout his career he's been very good more often than not, doesn't allow home runs and is normally a lock for about 170 innings. Yeah, I wouldn't be excited either... 


#50. Kyle Gibson - SP, St. Louis Cardinals (0.9 WAR, 8-8, 4.24 ERA)

Another career that doesn't get enough respect, but yeah I wouldn't be excited either...

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There are a bunch of other names floating out there, (*cough* future Dodger *cough*) Roki Sasaki being the most notably tantalizing one. Brief old friend Matthew Boyd is another, lefty reliever A.J. Minter who'd been as excellent in that left lane as they come until injury issues derailed his 2024 season (his injuries are not arm related for the record). Catcher Kyle Higashioka, who famously hit three homers against the Blue Jays in a game (remember Tanner Roark?)... Calgary pitcher Michael Soroka could be a nice reclamation story (and getting him away from the White Sox where he went 0-10 would surely be mutually beneficial) and he's only 27... groundball specialist Andrew Kittredge is a solid bullpen piece when healthy... perpetual 7th inning Yankee Tommy Kahnle? Hope and a prayer Spencer Turnbull can finally last a summer? Max Kepler lottery ticket?

Yeah... most of these are not particularly inspiring. I do hope they do something big, perhaps reckless even... if only to give hope for a happier spring while my beloved spunky but youthful Raptors continue to lose games. Sigh. I do not like November. I do not like it, Sam I Am. I would not, could not... on a train. Lets hope the Blue Jays do something. Have at it, all. 

 
                                               

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