Haven't been writing much in these parts lately, and seeing as this is one of my favourite annual traditions...
It's that time of year again! The leaves are
falling, the champions have polished off their considerable amounts of champagne... it is indeed
now the silly season where even the most foolish of predictions can run
amok. And as an extremely silly and foolish person myself, I feel as
qualified for this task as ever.
We're working
off of Fangraphs Top 50 list this time around, and while most of this
is going to be opinion-based rather than scientific (I have my biases)
I'll attempt to make most of my observations and predictions as
thoughtful as possible. Or at the very least, somewhat amusing.
Lets roll! Also, I'm using the BBref version of WAR.
#1. Juan Soto - OF, New York Yankees (OPS .989, 7.9 WAR)
The
fact that Soto isn't even technically in his prime yet, has been
astoundingly healthy throughout his career, and has guys like Bryce
Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr, Mickey Mantle and Mike Trout as
his most similar hitters at age 25... there's little doubt Soto is the prize of
this free agent market and is about to be rewarded appropriately.
There
is no team in baseball history that couldn't find a spot for this kind of bat.
He does seem like such a perfect fit as a Yankee (ugh!) and could
probably hit 200 home runs between now and before he turns 30 with that
stupid short right field porch (hell, give me 100 BP pitches, as a LH I bet I could hit at least one out in New Yankee Stadium, Costanza style).
Problem is... do the Yankees have the money to
keep him? Probably: they are the freaking Yankees after all... but it isn't so automatic. One
could see the crosstown Mets making a serious bid, the Dodgers are always
lingering and seemingly have more money to spend than several
Micronesian countries... or maybe some other dark horse emerges and swoops on in, which is where we come in.
The
Blue Jays make sense as that dark horse, and maybe it's the gloom of
the current world finally wrecking my objectivity for good (this is Kamp
Krusty and I'm Bart in the corner mumbling "Krusty is coming! Krusty is
coming!)... but I genuinely think we have a chance.
Not
a great chance, hell no... I wouldn't wager on it, but I also wouldn't
be totally shocked if Toronto landed Soto. He's basically exactly what
the team needs, and money be damned getting him would
seriously rejuvenate a currently very (and mostly rightfully) cynical
fanbase.
I've heard the argument they should just throw the money they had set
for Ohtani at Soto, but that was indeed a once in a generation situation
and international investment opportunity. Getting Soto would boost the
on-field team and maybe get some more butts in seats, however
considering Ohtani's worldwide appeal and superstardom Soto isn't really
comparable in that way. Still... Rogers oozes money, they just bought
MLSE fer-cryin'out-loud... they've been willing to spend before and so
lets see it again.
Anyhow, best odds are
Soto stays in New York... just depends if it's in the Bronx or a move to
Queens. Then we can spend all winter talking ourselves into Michael
Conforto instead. Hmmm... so much for my jokes I guess.
#2. Willy Adames - SS, Milwaukee Brewers (.794 OPS, 3.1 WAR)
It's
quite a drop from first to second on this year's list, going from one
of the greatest hitters of this generation to a zero time all-star. No
offense to Adames, who is a very very good player that generally gives you a
bit of everything: quality defender, some power from the shortstop
position and will draw some walks for you. He's more of a really solid
#2 hitter on a contending team than a perfect middle of the order
compliment for Guerrero Jr, and one figures he'd be sliding over to
third base on this current construction of the Blue Jays (that can of
course change, but I doubt the incumbent is getting dealt at his current nadir of value).
Adames
just screams like the kind
of guy who gets overpaid by a middling team desperate for a big move...
which does describe the Jays, true... but signing him really feels like
a Giants move. He is good! Adames even at his floor makes your team
better. Just not quite "superstar" good, and coming off a career year
that's what you'll be paying for.
#3. Alex Bregman - 3B, Houston Astros (.768, 4.1 WAR)
The
age (Bregman turns 31 at the start of the season) reminds a lot of the
last longtime Astro to cash in north of the border. While I've always
liked Bregman a lot as a player and he's been quite consistent for the
most
part (though his age 24-25 power surge looks quite out of place) one
thinks a long contract might not look so hot those final few years (also
sounds familiar eh).
In fact, the decline
appeared to already be in motion
until he turned things around in the second half of 2024 (an .833 OPS
compared to a .730). There are some warning signs! Positives though:
Bregman, assuming he
has a couple typical years left in him, would fill the hole at third
base and remains a very good fielder. Never really a Gold Glove guy and
*looks up stats* oh geez he won the Gold Glove just this past season?
Well... now that Matt Chapman is in the National League I guess that
clicks.
Again, I really like the player but
the career numbers are clearly
juiced by those two MVP-level seasons and it's unlikely he's that guy
ever again.
More of an excellent complimentary player than a main ticket. He'd be a
nice addition but not the starry splash the name recognition
makes it appear to be. If the Blue Jays sign him... thumbs up for sure
but they still need so much more.
#4. Corbin Burnes - SP, Baltimore Orioles (15-9, 2.92, 3.4 WAR)
Burnes
didn't miss a beat moving from the gentler NL Central into the gauntlet
of the AL East... although his strikeout rate has continued to plummet
(12.6, 10.8, 9.3 to 8.4 this past season). He's still a workhorse who is
stingy on both baserunners and allowing runs... and while pitchers are
inherently unpredictable, Burnes seems like a good bet to remain
dominant at least
for a couple more years, having just turned 30 a few weeks ago. While
splashy, seems
like adding Burnes wouldn't be the big play for the Blue Jays: I'll
predict they shop around in the next tier of pitching rather than the
absolute top guy
here, if they shop for starting pitching at all.
#5. Gerrit Cole - SP, New York Yankees (8-5, 3.41, 2.0 WAR)
He's not leaving the Yankees, full stop. They're already renegotiating his contract.
If
Soto resigns in the Bronx and they add some other quality bat
(Christian Walker perhaps)... just go re-watch the 5th inning against
the Dodgers wherein the Yankees invent entirely new ways of blowing a
big lead. I don't much care for Gerrit Cole one bit and his exasperation
(much of it his own fault for not covering first base) simply warms my
battered cold spirit.
#6. Blake Snell - SP, San Francisco Giants (5-3, 3.12, 2.1 WAR)
I've
never trusted the health. While he's clearly often exceptional when
he can take the mound, he's typically been a 100-120 inning per season
guy... also not helped by that he can walk the entire ballpark. Hitters
don't know where his pitches are going and neither does he.
The
stuff is electric, of course, and if you get 30 starts out of him he's
an instant Cy Young contender. Even 20-25 you're probably smiling. Coming off a season he only pitched 104
innings... if you can get him at a reasonable amount this is the kind of
high-reward gamble I could get behind. But he's a big risk to miss half
the season at the same time. Someone is going to jump into the deep end, me thinks. Best of luck to ya.
#7. Max Fried - SP, Atlanta Barves (11-10, 3.25, 3.5 WAR)
While
the tantalizing qualities aren't nearly as wild as Snell's (nor the stuff) Fried's
results have been nearly as good. He's at 73-36, 3.07 for his career,
has been generally healthy with 2023 as an exception, and is still in his general
pitching prime about to turn 31. You could see a Gausman-like deal here,
probably a fair bit more annually... but he'd immediately at worst
become the second best pitcher on the team. Again, maybe not the
biggest area of team need considering how much they might have to
spend... but he would be a great addition. Dude is a terrific arm.
#8. Jack Flaherty - SP, Detroit Tigers/Los Angeles Dodgers (13-7, 3.17, 3.1 WAR)
Maybe
getting out of St. Louis was all he needed? Or is it a fluke career/comeback
year at a perfect time after years in the wilderness?
Personally I'm not
a believer, although he is young enough (29 next season) to have
figured something out. He was extremely good until 2022 when injuries
started eating him up. Not worthy of Fried/Burnes like money of course,
and despite the ERA he pitched merely okay as a Dodger (his up and down
postseason performance evidence of that). Someone is gonna believe in
the youth and the talent and so will open up the bank. Not convinced I want
it to be us, but I've been wrong many times before.
#9. Ha-Seong Kim - SS, San Diego Padres (.700 OPS, 2.6 WAR)
Like
the player, not the fit. Don't we already have a bunch of these types?
Terrific middle infield defender without much pop? He's certainly more
willing to take a walk than Ernie Clement (one suspects the entire
planet of Earth is) and his ability to swipe some bags could make him an
intriguing leadoff option seeing as I think we can all agree Springer's
days there are not long if the team wants to genuinely contend.
Kim
will be 29 and you could talk me into him
being a temporary solution at second base and occasional shortstop
(although he is a
far better fielder than Bichette so... probably a tough sell). Also
considering what a tough place San Diego is on hitters (Kim's slugging
percentage is 35 points better on the road)... yeah lets rock and roll, I
think Arden Zwelling agrees as well. However... Kim cannot be the
big position player add. Great player, but like I said bringing him in
is doubling down on a strength not a need, and this front office has
done that before to very infuriating results.
#10. Gleyber Torres - 2B, New York Yankees (.709 OPS, 1.8 WAR)
A
definite change of scenery guy, and I'm intrigued.
New York seems completely fed up with
him (tough crowd but he does have his weird lapses) and honestly his
career could go in any number of directions. Wouldn't surprise me if it
all clicks somewhere and he hits 30 homers as a middle infielder, or he
becomes a barely passable DH and washes out of the league in a few
years. He turns 28 in December and I like the idea of buying low on the
potential, even if he is kind of a butcher as a defender. Hey, pure defensive guys! We got plenty of those!
Does
Torres have
the arm for third base? He played there a little in the minors. An
interesting case no doubt, I like the power potential, and he really
gets on base. All depends on if that pop
comes back, and there may be an injury explanation for it. On a short
"prove it" contract... yeah lets do it. As an upside play it's a great
roll of the dice, and even the floor and youth is better than you think.
#11. Teoscar Hernandez - OF, Los Angeles Dodgers (.840 OPS, 4.3 WAR)
That
worked out pretty darn well for our old friend Teo, didn't it? A career
high in homers (including winning the derby) and several memorable
post-season moments (don't forget he hit two dingers in the infamous 8-1
game... which barring an unlikely reunion likely stands as his forever
final game in Blue Jay blue). An incredibly fun player with still
tremendous power (the Seattle year seems like the fluke) and this is his best chance to get legit paid. Hope he stays in LA or,
depending on what happens with Soto... please not New York.
#12. Anthony Santander - OF, Baltimore Orioles (.814 OPS, 2.9 WAR)
Reliable
but merely very good power hitting corner outfielder hits a bunch of homers
in contract year, will cash in.
He's a couple
years younger than
Hernandez but not quite the same caliber of power bat (and with a career
OBP of .307 and negative defense... his value is tied entirely in his
ability to sock dingers). There's a good chance Santander is still this
guy for
a few more years, clubbing lots of home runs while slowly shifting into
a pure DH role (and the switch hitting is useful)... alas the one
dimensional aspect of Santander makes me hesitant. Even Kendrys Morales
could get on base a little bit. Maybe Santander becomes the
next Nelson Cruz and hits home runs seemingly forever, but there's also a
reason Cruz is such a memorable player. Not a lot of dudes end up doing
that one thing so long with that specific profile.
#13. Pete Alonso - 1B, New York Mets (.788 OPS, 2.6 WAR)
In
theory, if we're talking versatility... Santander is the more valuable
player than Alonso (who is limited to first base only) and can also
switch hit. In theory.
I quite like Alonso's offensive profile more: more on-base ability, typically more power, and the awesome
nickname. If he's really looking for and expecting 200 million I don't
think I like him that much more... especially when considering he only
plays one position currently occupied by the Blue Jays best player (although I still
like the idea of Vlad Jr. getting 40-50ish starts at third in such a
scenario... not ideal but I think he's up to it).
The
40 homer version
of the Polar Bear would be quite an addition to this team and indeed
that second dangerous middle of the order bat. If he's more the 2024
version going forward... that's still a solid hitter but ecch there's a
dicey contract should he continue to slide. Regardless, I'd approve of
the move if it is reasonable. But Christian Walker and a Goldschmidt
bounceback also are floating around as potentially shorter and
immediately as useful contributions.
#14. Shane Bieber - SP, Cleveland Guardians (2-0, two starts before getting injured)
A
very very good pitcher when healthy, arguably on the same level of
Corbin Burnes just without the innings. Like Burnes, the drop in
strikeouts has been noticeable... and Bieber is coming off Tommy John
surgery, so you're not completely sure how long it's going to take
him to regain that previous form, if he even does.
Bieber
was more of a
pinpoint command guy than somebody heating up the radar gun, so even if
the fastball comes back around 90 instead of 93 he can probably get by.
Much like the Blue Jays did with Chad Green, I could envision a
creatively structured contract while rolling the dice on him, although
in Alek Manoah they already have a Tommy John wildcard returning in the
back half of 2025. Could make a worse gamble I suppose, and it would be a
compelling move regardless.
#15. Sean Manaea - SP, New York Mets (12-6, 3.47, 3.0 WAR)
I
have no clue what to expect from this dude anymore. Seems clear he
figured out something in the second half of 2024 by dropping his arm
angle ala Chris Sale (the broadcast wouldn't shut-up about it, but it
was noticeable) and he still racks up the strikeouts... but he'll be
turning 33 and
looking to capitalize. Not sure I like the risk, but I was wrong about
Kikuchi once upon a time as well. Feel like Manaea is best served
staying in New York anyhow.
#16. Yusei Kikuchi - SP, Toronto Blue Jays/Houston Astros (9-10, 4.05, 1.4 WAR)
Speaking
of Yusei... we've talked about him a ton in these parts and we pretty
much know who he is. Was damn great in Houston, somewhat unlucky in
Toronto, and depending on how Jake Bloss shakes out (or if Will Wagner
continues looking the part a major league hitter, or Joey Loperfido
figures out how to be one) this might be a "good for both sides" kind of
deal... for now I like him a lot but probably not at what he'll be
looking for.
#17. Nathan Eovaldi - SP, Texas Rangers (12-8, 3.80, 2.3 WAR)
I
feel like every time I write one of these pieces, there's Eovaldi and
his quality mid-rotation-ness out there as a free agent. His 30s career
has been remarkably consistent, he still misses bats, has playoff pedigree
(and remains a playoff quality starter) while still rarely walking anybody. He'll be 35 next season and the obvious
question is how much longer can he keep up this reliable floor of
quality and innings... but if he can keep it up a while longer he still
slots into any rotation and won't be wildly expensive because of his
age. Sure!
#18. Christian Walker - 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks (.803 OPS, 2.6 WAR)
He'll
be 34, which is concerning. He's also won three straight gold gloves,
which does suggest his athleticism hasn't slipped too much. Much of what
he brings with the stick is similar to the Alonso package just without
the splashy name recognition or perceived upside... but I'm extremely
suspicious of power hitters coming from Arizona (Varsho *cough*) rather than the rather spacious
Citi Field.
Walker's age will make him much
cheaper than the Polar Bear, but
leaving Chase Field might make him look more like an average bat than a
quality middle of the order one. Extremely lukewarm on this one, even if
I do like him overall as a player. It's just that so much of his value
is tied in actually
playing first base... and Guerrrero Jr. I figure is still going to be
playing at least half his games there in 2025. Kind of an awkward fit
unless Vlad is going to third full time, which is it's own separately
bad idea.
#19. Tanner Scott - RP, Miami Marlins/San Diego Padres (9-6, 1.75, 4.0 WAR)
The
Blue Jays need to fix their painfully awful bullpen to even have a prayer in 2025, and
Tanner Scott is the best reliever that money can buy.
Scott has been
extremely good the past couple years, is only 30... but this all comes
after a stretch of not goodness before (lots of strikeouts, plenty of
walks). He still loses the zone more than you'd like, with most of his
recent success coming off just being impossible to hit (which admittedly
is a nice skill to have). I don't quite see this particular Blue Jays
front office investing so much in this level of reliever anyhow: they
tend to like shopping in the middle, safer tier, and while Scott could indeed end up
being truly elite for quite some time he won't be a bargain.
#20. Blake Treinen - RP, Los Angeles Dodgers (7-3, 1.93, 1.4 WAR)
As
the postseason showed... Treinen has just a filthy slider, and even
with the sinker lacking it's previous sizzle, when relief shopping you
definitely want to bet on a truly elite pitch even if the man throwing it is 37.
Alas,
he's also a bit of a jerk and coming off a couple seasons before this
one wherein he barely pitched, and his playoff heroics will probably get
somebody to overpay for him. No thanks.
#21. Tyler O'Neill - OF, Boston Red Sox (.847 OPS, 2.6 WAR)
He's
Canadian! He's still young! (turns 30 next June) He hits home runs! He
doesn't do much else (his career has basically been a roller coaster
ride) and those final two years as a Cardinal do concern me. He also
gets hurt a lot. Could finally have realized his talent as a useful 30+
homer guy? Could just be an expensive platoon bat (his .209/.290/.403
versus RHP this past season for the Red Sox also concerns me).
Nevertheless, he's a legitimate lefty-masher. Worth a looksy, me thinks... even if I don't believe in the random Gold Glove.
#22. Jurickson Profar - OF, San Diego Padres (.839 OPS, 3.7 WAR)
The
Nathan Eovaldi of free agent position players... Profar is just always
here. He's a weird player: a career OPS+ of 113 as a Padre, considerably
below average everywhere else. Not a good outfielder, not even in
left-field... but he has decent power, draws walks and strikes out less
than the average dude. Myself... I don't trust him outside of San Diego
(this is a guy who recently posted an OPS of .680 in freaking Colorado)
but surely somebody will try and unlock the Padre version of Profar
somewhere. Not here, please. This screams "bad contract" unless he's in those 80s McDonald's colours, for whatever reason.
#23. Nick Martinez - SP, Cincinnati Reds (10-7, 3.10, 4.0 WAR) -- accepted Reds qualifying offer
Yowza...
what a season! A forgettable swingman on the Rangers teams of the mid
2010s, Martinez went to pitch in Japan for four seasons, returned to MLB
with the Padres in 2022 and was much more effective in that same
swingman role. He signed up with the Reds for 2024 and was even better:
pitching in 42 games (16 starts), 142.1 innings and walking only 18(!)
to 116 strikeouts. He has a player option for 12 million but one
imagines he'll forgo that in search of a longer deal somewhere, and as a
potentially cheap-ish rotation option he is intriguing. Possibly this
season's version of Seth Lugo: an older starter (34) with considerable
relief experience who doesn't overpower but has a bunch of weapons he
can throw strikes with. FanGraphs wrote the exact same thing and I swear
I thought of the Lugo comparison before reading their blurb. Honest!
#24. Walker Buehler - SP, Los Angeles (1-6, 5.38, -1.3 WAR)
Buehler... Buehler... Buehler...
Despite
his World Series heroics (he'd never recorded an MLB save previously)
Walker had a difficult return to the majors after missing most of 2022
and 2023 to injury. There's enough of a track record (he'd been an
all-star in 2019 and 2021) for the 30 year old to get a look somewhere,
and considering the constant pitching injury issues of the Dodgers it
might not even be a shock to see Buehler back in LA on a pillow
contract. Still, if he did shake loose... the upside is mighty
tantalizing on a short deal.
#25. Nick Pivetta - SP, Boston Red Sox (6-12, 4.14, 1.8 WAR)
A
weird season for the native of Victoria. He's generally been a quality
back rotation starter since joining the American League, finally cut
down on the walks without losing the strong strikeout rate... and lost
12 games for his trouble on a .500ish Boston team.
Pivetta has always been
fairly prone to homers and this year it jumped up to 4.7 percent...
which is not what you want. It's like your dollar store version of
Nathan Eovaldi, though maybe still some upside and still a few years
younger... this is likely pretty much all you can realistically hope
for. Maybe a larger park helps the homers come down but even so this is
the definition of an okay number four starter.
#26. Luis Severino - SP, New York Mets (11-7, 3.91, 1.6 WAR)
He
looked like the next young ace of the Yankees back in the mid-2010s,
had two seasons (2017-18) where it seemed to be happening and he scared
the living Timothy Dalton daylights out of me... then the
injuries got him.
Severino pitched just seven
MLB games in three years, and
after a 2022 bounceback his 2023 was bad enough (4-8, 6.65) for the
Yankees to say farewell. He crosses over to Queens, puts up his first
182 inning season in over half a decade... and while he wasn't quite as
purely dominant as that two year run in the Bronx, Severino gave the
Mets
more than they could've asked for on their 13 million bucks. He'll be
seeking multiple years guaranteed this go-around, as a 31 year old, and
if the injury issues (always a big if with pitchers) are behind him he's
got a strong chance to be a solid mid-rotation arm for the immediate
future.
The injury woes robbed him of his once-flamethrower velocity but he's
mixed in more movement on his fastball to compensate. If the Blue Jays
are serious about
adding another starter, honestly this isn't a bad bet.
#27. Jeff Hoffman - RP, Philadelphia Phillies (3-3, 2.17, 2.0 WAR)
How
is this dude almost 32 already? Shipping him off in the Tulowitzki trade
wasn't that long ago... although I suppose Hoffman is the only player in
that trade still active (*edit: not true, both Miguel Castro and Jesus
Tinoco pitched for MLB teams in 2024).
Hoffman
has taken a common path to becoming a dominant reliever, his sorry recent
playoff showing that withstanding (nobody in that Phillies pen was
pitching sharply in October anyhow, I doubt the ghost of Tug McGraw
could've saved them). He was generally awful as a Rockie (these things
happen), then Cincinnati got a hold of him and after 11 starts ditched the
whole starting pitcher thing. He was pretty meh at the relief thing as a Red but the
Phillies picked him up and suddenly the walks and hits disappeared,
while the strikeouts jumped. That always helps, especially in contract
years.
Not sure I buy it at any significant
amount of money, but guys like this always get paid in the hopes they've
finally unlocked all that tasty potential (see another former Red in
Robert Stephenson). Sometimes you get Wade Davis (Royals version) and
sometimes you get Wade Davis (Rockies version). I tend to lean the
latter on big relief contracts.
#28. Clay Holmes - RP, New York Yankees (3-5, 3.14, 0.7 WAR)
For
a guy so constantly talked about having lost his closer's role during
New York's playoff run, aside from a few more hits Holmes was pretty
much the same guy he'd always been. Personally, I like the idea of
adding him. That super-sinker can be downright nasty, he's nearly
impossible to hit one over the fence on, and he keeps the free passes
reasonably under control. I think he's a safer bet as a relief option
than anyone we've discussed on this list so far, although maybe not with
the super high
upside. Jordan Romano is such a question mark, you can bring in Holmes
with a strong implication he is going to be finishing games.
#29. Joc Pederson - OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (.908 OPS, 2.9 WAR)
The
mirror universe version of Tyler O'Neill: all Pederson does is destroy
right-handed pitching. Get both! Would be a fine (though expensive)
platoon. One of them has to grow a goatee though, just so we know which
is the evil one.
#30. Max Scherzer - SP, Texas Rangers (2-4, 3.95, 0.4 WAR)
I've
always loved watching Mad Max pitch. Problem is, he's about to turn 41
in July and the durability is starting to become a problem. Power
pitchers rarely bounce back in their age 41 season, usually the opposite
(Verlander's rough 2024 is proof of that) and while I would absolutely
adore it if the Blue Jays made such a gamble... there is as much a chance
that his long impressive career is cooked. But I hope not. He is so much fun.
#31. Charlie Morton - SP, Atlanta Barves (8-10, 4.19, 1.1 WAR)
Morton
is even older than Scherzer, and while his ability to still make 30
starts every darn year is impressive... the quality of those innings
have been slipping. Throw him at the wall as your veteran number five
starter? He's wily and probably has another decent year or two if the
termites stay away. But he's also going to be 41 several months before
the 2025 season starts. Time waits for no one.
#32. Justin Verlander - SP, Houston Astros (5-6, 5.48, -0.3 WAR)
As
I've said every year Verlander has been out here... it would be cool to see
Verlander finally throw a no-hitter for the Blue Jays instead of against
them.
Like Mad Max, he might be near the end
though. He'll be 42(!)
when the season starts and is coming off his worst non-rookie season.
Love to see
him stick around as long as possible, and the underlying stats suggest
was only bleh instead of truly
as bad as ERA suggests... but at a point a guy like this has done and
achieved everything the game can offer. You don't want the game to lose
him, but you understand when and how it passes him by. Hope he can do
what few are gifted to do: bounce back and go out on your own terms,
Verlander.
#33. Andrew Heaney - SP, Texas Rangers (5-14, 4.28, 0.8 WAR)
Another
guy who always seem to be bouncing around at this particular stage of
their career.
Heaney has settled into your generic average left-handed
starter, ideally not somebody starting playoff games for you but is
decent-ish enough to maybe help get you there via soaking up innings at a
strong clip.
Heaney has had the career Steven Matz should've had. Heaney's stuff was
likewise always intriguing but he's 34 now, the juice is slipping and
this is
more or less what he is anyhow. Meh.
#34. Frankie Montas - SP, Cincinnati Reds/Milwaukee Brewers (7-11, 4.84, 0.6 WAR)
Step
right up and behold yet another extremely average/to-below average MLB
starter! He pitches innings! Serves up dingers! Loses the strikezone
more than you'd prefer! Montas has been something notable in the past and this was
his first full season staying on a mound in a while... so maaaaybe if you squint hard
enough there's something else there? But 6-10 wins, about 150 mediocre
innings feels about right. If he's even healthy. We are indeed in the zone of
very unexciting starting pitchers.
#35. Trevor Williams - SP, Washington Nationals (6-1, 2.03, 2.6 WAR)
Unlike
the Montas or Heaneys of the world, Williams at least holds some
intrigue being a soft tosser who gets by on guile and movement. He'll
surrender plenty of moonshots (he's led the league twice) and allowing
only three in 66.2 innings last year just screams "bizarre fluke"
considering his career. I genuinely enjoy guys succeed with this type of
stuff (my pitching career can relate) but it's such a high-wire act that can fall apart very quickly in this
particular era of super-charged velocity and hitters swinging for the fences.
Still, you can still succeed when you know what the hell you're doing.
#36. Alex Cobb - SP, Cleveland Guardians (2-1, 2.76, 0.2 WAR)
Another
guy I've always enjoyed watching... biting two-seamers and nasty
changeup/splitter things. Surprisingly, aside from this past year he's been able to
pitch probably more than you think the past few seasons, both for the
Angels and Giants... whereas his considerable shakiness in the
2024 postseason for Cleveland surely couldn't have been helped by his
year-long injury/blister issues. A flyer I wouldn't mind bringing in to fill out the
back of the rotation, even if he's just a five-and-dive guy at this
point. Multiple years of commitment? I don't like Cobb quite that much.
#37. Aroldis Chapman - RP, Pittsburgh Pirates (5-5, 3.79, 0.4 WAR)
Nope.
#38. Kenley Jansen - RP, Boston Red Sox (4-2, 3.29, 27 SV, 1.3 WAR)
Not
gonna lie, I've got a soft spot for the big fella from Curacao (he and I
were
born the same month!) and I think there's still enough there in Jansen
to be a
useful 7th/8th inning dude in a playoff bullpen. He isn't the unhittable
monster he was in his early Dodger days, but he's settled in as a
reliable late inning option that can get whiffs and limit damage. The
Jays bullpen would need more than this, but Jansen could be a fine
stabilizing veteran add (with lots of closing experience) on a
short deal. Sign me up.
#39. Kirby Yates - RP, Texas Rangers (7-2, 1.17, 33 SV, 3.3 WAR)
Do
we try this again? Yates has been his old self since leaving Blue Jay
land... giving Atlanta a fine middle relief season and then being
ridiculously untouchable for the Rangers this past season. He'll be 38 in
the spring and the health track record is, as we remember, not ideal...
and expecting another season of a 1.17 ERA is not reasonable. But he
clearly is legit when toeing the rubber and his splitter still gets tons of whiffs. Tough one.
#40. Carlos Estevez - RP, Philadelphia Phillies/Los Angeles Angels (4-5, 2.45, 26 SV, 2.1 WAR)
The
stuff looks damn great and he finally figured out where it was going at
the perfect time for the Angels and Phils (at least until the
postseason for the latter). You could talk me into it but also at age
31, he's probably getting multiple years and that's where I get
nervous... not to mention he seems to be a "trendy" bullpen pick. He
seems to be a guy still with a bunch of pitches instead of two that are
totally lethal, which can be problematic in short outings. As a pitcher I
can relate: you've got four things that feel good that day but you're
only throwing one inning... too many options in a tiny window, not all
of them can fit through that space.
#41. Paul Goldschmidt - 1B, St.Louis Cardinals (.716 OPS, 1.3 WAR)
We
were born the exact same day, and at 37 we're both looking well past
our athletic primes. Come on Paul! I like Goldy a lot and much of this outlier 2024 season
can be traced to a dreadful first half (a .664 OPS compared to .799 in
the second). If he can just be that second half guy, which was
essentially his 2023 season... he's a useful supporting bat. If he has
one more 2022 season in him... well that would work just fine too but
lets not get too greedy quite yet.
It's tough
with hitters of this certain
age (tell me about it): Goldschmidt could be another smart Brandon
Belt-like signing of a veteran
guy (Belt was slightly younger at 35) or he could be about to totally
fall off the cliff. Hey, it's why he's all the way down here on the list
despite his
fabulous career! Honestly... you could talk me into this one over
Alonso, assuming they sign somebody much much better (Soto/Bregman) to
fill out things. Banking on a Goldy bounceback as your key primary "fix
the offense" move... kinda reeks of the Votto signing and if so please
stop ruining September 10 birthdays for this franchise. Enough already.
Random fact! Paul Goldschmidt has stolen 11 bases each of
the last two seasons so at least he isn't a total base clogger...
one presumes.
#42. Carlos Santana - 1B, Minnesota Twins (.749, 2.5 WAR)
Speaking
of defying time... while I'm not convinced a 38 year old was the best
defensive first baseman in the American League... at this point we
should just sign him so he can stop torturing us with his constant
clutch
hits. Truly the Blue Jay Killer of our time. Naturally, we'll sign him
and he'll stink... after being released he signs on with the Royals and
gets a decisive hit in a Wild Card game. Evil ways, man.
#43. Danny Jansen - C, Toronto Blue Jays/Boston Red Sox (.658, 0.7 WAR)
We
know him well. After a three year stretch as one of the best hitting
catchers in the game (also always getting hurt during those hot streaks... pull your hands in Danny!)
Jano finally remained mostly healthy for an entire season and... well
he hit like a catcher. Very very hard to see what the market is going to look
like for him... somebody will some calling since he's still the best option on
the market... but there's a lot of uncertainty here in that stick and
that body. Best of luck to him.
#44. Michael Conforto - OF, San Francisco Giants (.759, 1.3 WAR)
The
shoulder injury seems to have zapped his power, as it was, leaving
Conforto as a still useful but defensively weak outfield bat, at the
wrong side of 30 no less. Would've been a compelling gamble a few
winters ago, now in retrospect it would've worked out merely okay. I
guess if the Blue Jays are content with another off-season of
half-measures and selling bounce-back hope... well I've already said it
haven't I.
#45. Paul Sewald - RP, Arizona Diamondbacks (0.2 WAR, 16 SV, 39.2 IP, 4.31 ERA)
You
could do worse I suppose, he's coming off of a weird neck injury
season, and despite his age (34) some relievers just have different
aging curves. Speaking of that...
#46. David Robertson - RP, Texas Rangers (1.7 WAR, 72 IP, 3.00 ERA)
Robertson
is about to turn 40 and yet is still missing bats and pitching as
effectively as ever. As reliable as they come despite never being
blessed with radar gun juice, Robertson keeps getting whiffs with his
cutter/curveball combo (especially the cutter... seems sharing a bullpen
bench with the Great Mariano might've taught him a few things). He's
spent the past several years wandering the league and pitching well
everywhere... it's one of those things you can count on until you see it
finally not happen. Could be a cheap-ish and smart signing.
#47. Justin Turner - DH, Toronto Blue Jays/Seattle Mariners (.737 OPS, 1.5 WAR)
Was
notably better in Seattle than Toronto, where a pair of considerable
death spiral-like slumps really wrecked his numbers. Still, I think
we've seen enough of this experience not to seek repeating it.
#48. Kyle Hart - SP
A
lefty who went off to the KBO with considerable success and is now
looking to break back into the major leagues. Wouldn't be the first
time, and Rich Hill is certainly a case of a late-career lefty starter
finding a run of great effectiveness... but honestly I'd never even
heard of this Hart dude until writing this sentence. Lets move on.
#49. Jose Quintana - SP, New York Mets (2.5 WAR. 10-10, 3.75 ERA)
A
little respect? I'm 99.9 percent certain that no fan is going to be
excited when their team signs this guy to the multi-year contract he has
clearly earned, seeing as Quintana is neither young (36 in January) nor
does he miss bats (7.1 K/9). Yet throughout his career he's been very
good more often than not, doesn't allow home runs and is normally a lock
for about 170 innings. Yeah, I wouldn't be excited either...
#50. Kyle Gibson - SP, St. Louis Cardinals (0.9 WAR, 8-8, 4.24 ERA)
Another career that doesn't get enough respect, but yeah I wouldn't be excited either...
---
There
are a bunch of other names floating out there, (*cough* future Dodger
*cough*) Roki Sasaki being the most notably tantalizing one. Brief old
friend Matthew Boyd is another, lefty reliever A.J. Minter who'd been as
excellent in that left lane as they come until injury issues derailed
his 2024 season (his injuries are not arm related for the record).
Catcher Kyle Higashioka, who famously hit three homers against the Blue
Jays in a game (remember Tanner Roark?)... Calgary pitcher Michael
Soroka could be a nice reclamation story (and getting him away from the
White Sox where he went 0-10 would surely be mutually beneficial) and
he's only 27... groundball specialist Andrew Kittredge is a solid
bullpen piece when healthy... perpetual 7th inning Yankee Tommy Kahnle?
Hope and a prayer Spencer Turnbull can finally last a summer? Max Kepler
lottery ticket?
Yeah... most of these are not
particularly inspiring. I do hope they do something big, perhaps
reckless even... if only to give hope for a happier spring while my
beloved spunky but youthful Raptors continue to lose games. Sigh. I do
not like November. I do not like it, Sam I Am. I would not, could not...
on a train. Lets hope the Blue Jays do something. Have at it, all.
