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So it is Christmas, a time to be thankful for everything in life. What is everyone here thankful for this year?

As Jays fans, we obviously are thankful the team finally won a playoff game for the first time since 2016, and made it to the World Series for the first time since 1993. First ever World Series Game 7. May not have ended as we would've liked, but you can't get closer without actually winning. So lots of fun there.

No baseball related gifts to me this year, a bit of a surprise, but there are more things to me than baseball (honestly!). Anyone here get baseball themed gifts? Any fun surprises today?

Today is Rickey Henderson's birthday, 2 other HOF's as well - Pud Glavin and Nellie Fox. Ex-Expo Charlie Lea (who had a no-hitter that was removed due to being sub 9 innings). Rickey the only ex-Jay born on Christmas.
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The following comments are owned by whoever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
dalimon5 - Thursday, December 25 2025 @ 01:52 PM EST (#474080) #
Thankful for a wonderful 2025 season with World Series battle. Extra thankful for the feeling that the Blue Jays weren't a "one and done," or "lucky" World Series contender and I have another optimistic season to look forward to.

Thankful for this board which is so elevated compared to the drivel out there.
earlweaverfan - Thursday, December 25 2025 @ 06:08 PM EST (#474081) #
I was going to send this to another thread, John, but I especially want to express my gratitude to you for carrying such a heavy load for BattersBox.ca, by defining so many of the topics for the rest of us, providing a statistical foundation for our debates, educating us on the issues at stake and being gentle and respectful when you may disagree with us.

Bb.ca would never be the same without you and you are a big reason why so many of us keep coming back.

My other big reason for being grateful on this site is for all the Blue Jays fans who are such a big factor in why our players are so keen to play for this team. To all of you, thanks for your part in this!!!
John Northey - Friday, December 26 2025 @ 12:12 AM EST (#474082) #
Awww, thanks earlweaverfan. Sigh. Miss when he was around - Earl Weaver was a fun manager to watch on TV. One of the smartest of his era too (made great use of his whole bench, if you were on his team you had a role, no wasted players).

I love the posters here - so much fun to discuss stuff. Sometimes my thought process gets shifted on stuff thanks to the smart discussions. I barely follow the minors now, and other clubs are mostly via checking stats so seeing peoples comments helps me understand more. Fun thing with baseball is there is always something new going on.

Scary thought of the day - it is possible in 2026 for the Jays to sign someone born in 2010 as kids born then will be turning 16 this year.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, December 27 2025 @ 03:26 AM EST (#474083) #
Thankful for all the people on here who (mostly) keep it civil, fun discussions, etc. And I don't get kicked off for being a little pessimistic or off-the-beaten-path once in a while.
krose - Saturday, December 27 2025 @ 12:03 PM EST (#474084) #
Top of the season to all readers and contributors. This continues to be one of my favourite sites for daily reading. Loved this past season as much as any, although it ended with an abrupt fizzle (oxymoron?).
Petey Baseball - Saturday, December 27 2025 @ 03:10 PM EST (#474085) #
Have been here since 2002 (almost at the start) and always come back. Was very busy during the playoff run and missed a lot of the best moments and didn't post much here, but I'm glad the team finally got back to the promised land.

I am still going to toot my own horn here; I was beating the drum for a long time (pretty much since the pandemic) that the Blue Jays and Rogers should be in the top three in payroll, and they finally got there, too. I predicted in the '23 off-season that Ed getting full control over the team would lead to this; and so it did.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, December 28 2025 @ 09:35 AM EST (#474086) #
I'm thankful for the country we live in, for obvious reasons. Baseball-wise, I'm thankful for the past Jay's season which provided more highlights and exciting moments than the previous 5 years combined. The way the team gelled through the season, and then beating those arrogant Yankees, the comeback against Seattle, and excruciating loss in Game 7 to the Dodgers. What a year!

I'm thankful for this site which provides so much information on the Jays, from the big club to the lowest minors, and for the posters who provide thoughtful insights and can disagree on points without the toxic, profanity-laced insults that sometimes happens on the internet. And lastly, thank you to John Northey who is the backbone of this site, along with the help of Gerry and #2JBrumfield. I'm looking forward to 2026 and another great year for the Jays and Batters Box!
bpoz - Sunday, December 28 2025 @ 08:36 PM EST (#474087) #
Zack Eflin to the Orioles.
John Northey - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 02:33 PM EST (#474088) #
Dang is it quiet right now in baseball. Normally there are a few big signings or deals finished off during this period. Hopefully stuff gets going - the rumor mill keeps repeating the same stuff over and over again. Kazuma Okamoto has to make a choice soon - his posting window ends January 4th. He was rumored as a possible Jay target earlier (he'd be in a mix/match role playing at 3B/1B/DH as needed - sort of a super-utility guy). Tatsuya Imai, being a starting pitcher, is no longer in the Jays plans I'd assume (it'd be very odd if they signed another starter) but he is running out of time - has to sign by January 2nd - hopefully with a NL team.

Rumors are silly this time of year - latest silly one is the Jays signing Bellinger and Bichette instead of Tucker as the total dollars would match. It'd be interesting but would be overloading the OF/IF situation imo - Santander/Varsho/Bellinger OF with Vlad-Bo-Gimenez-Barger/Clement (platoon sorta - although I could see Clement at SS a lot) as the IF. That'd hurt the competition by taking 2 guys off the board. Plus Bellinger is a no-QO guy so he'd only cost money (not my money). Y'know, it isn't as insane as it first appeared. MLBTR has Bellinger at 5/$140 and Bo at 8/$208 so that works out to $28 + $26 mil respectively or $54 mil per year - a bit more than Tucker (11/$400 = $36.4 per) but gets you 2 guys instead of 1 and locks in prime years for both rather than just a few prime for 1 (Bellinger 30-35, Bo 28-35, Tucker 29-39 so 8 pre-33 years for Bo/Bellinger vs 4 for Tucker). Yeah, that actually might work.

C'mon Jays get something done already! My head is going too weird on these combos that I just know shouldn't work. FYI: Okamoto is expected to get 4/$64 = $16 mil per so the cheap option would be Bellinger/Okamoto = $44 mil per, or barely more than Tucker on his own ($8 mil more).
greenfrog - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 04:34 PM EST (#474089) #
I like the idea of adding Okamoto, although I’m not sure exactly how he would fit the roster (at least in 2026). Signing Okamoto as a 3B/1B/DH/PH and Tucker as a LF would be more than fine with me. Maybe Santander would get traded in that scenario?

Signing one of Bo, Bregman, Bellinger or Tucker — or trading for a good infielder or outfielder — seems a more likely scenario, though.
Michael - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 06:32 PM EST (#474090) #
I too find this time with no action a little annoying, especially because a lot of sites seem to do clickbait headlines. I've seen lots of "Bo Buchette sings with foo" headlines where the article is just random speculation of how this person would fit or "Bad news for foo team about signing X" where again the article is just random speculation. But at the end of the day it is what 6 or 7 weeks until pitchers and catchers report? Still a lot of off-season to go.
John Northey - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 08:18 PM EST (#474091) #
So true Michael - I try to avoid clicking on those clickbait articles but sometimes they sound real enough to catch me. Instead I try to go to MLBTR first as if they don't have it, odds are it isn't real.

So what are the projections for the guys again? Yeah, yeah, I post these often, but I like to think about it. Using Fangraphs Depth Charts this time for a change of pace from Steamer. WAR Avg/OBP/Slg - wRC+
  • Tucker: 4.4 268/371/483 - 136
  • Bo: 4.0 293/341/455 - 121
  • Bregman: 4.0 262/346/441 - 120
  • Bellinger: 3.0 267/331/451 - 116
  • Eugenio Suárez: 2.6 230/306/450 - 108 - no I don't see him as a real possibility, but still worth checking
  • Okamoto: 1.8 251/324/441 - 110 - listed as a negative on both defense and baserunning
  • Moncada: 1.1 241/315/396 - 98 - a high risk/high reward type, once was a great prospect but had issues for a few years, 117 wRC+ last year, peaked in 2019 at 139, entering age 31 season. Saw a rumor on him to the Jays (everyone is coming here it seems) so I thought 'lets check'.
So a few top end options, a few low end, a few risks. Suarez/Okamoto/Moncada/Bregman all are primarily 3B. Tucker RF, Bo 2B, Bellinger covers all 3 OF and 1B (useful).

Not hard to imagine the Jays getting Bellinger with that multi-position aspect being something they LOVE. A Bellinger/Bo combo would be nice. Tucker still my #1 goal as his high OBP makes him ideal in the 2 hole before Vlad. Perfect world they sign Bo and Tucker, screw Rogers profit margin. Realistically One of the top 4 and maybe, maybe one of the bottom 2. Do that and the bench becomes killer as this team would then be set for 2026 easily. For 2027 the headache would be CF (Varsho FA) and SP (Gausman-Bieber FA's). But that is a problem for another day.
greenfrog - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 09:31 PM EST (#474092) #
I've been saying this for most of the off-season, but I could see a FA signing (ideally Tucker or Bo), coupled with a trade acquisition (someone like Donovan, Marte or Kwan).

Acquiring one player via free agency would be helpful because it's only money and this would lessen the need to empty the farm system to make complete the off-season.

Acquiring the other player via trade would reduce the need to spend big dollars on two players (the Tucker-plus-Bo hypothetical) -- something Rogers realistically probably doesn't want to do.
greenfrog - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 09:35 PM EST (#474093) #
I do think at least one more major move is coming for the Blue Jays. I expect the front office (and ownership) knows that 2026 is another prime opportunity to compete for a WS title, and to maintain and build upon the incredible fan interest -- and associated revenue -- that the team attracted last year.
John Northey - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 11:09 PM EST (#474094) #
greenfrog - excellent point there. If they do sign Bo (for example) then trade for an OF we'd have a spare OF or two available and maybe an IF depending on what is needed by the other club.

So who is available that we know of? Same stats as before
  • Steven Kwan (Cleveland LF LH): 2 years of control, 3.2 278/350/399 - 113 also 57-19 SB-CS projected been rumored to be available for awhile now
  • Ketel Marte (Arizona 2B Sw): under contract through 2030, 4.8 280/365/495 - 136 - on trade block but obviously the price is sky high
  • Brendan Donovan (StL 2B/LF LH): FA post '27, 3.0 280/353/412 - 118 - an odd one to be on the trading block imo but St Louis wants an established ML starting pitcher plus for him. Wonder if a package could be made using Berrios plus cash plus prospects.
There are bound to be many others but those 3 were mentioned by greenfrog and I'd heard of them being available as well. Kwan the only obvious fit if Bo is resigned. Marte easily the best of the batch.
SK in NJ - Monday, December 29 2025 @ 11:15 PM EST (#474095) #
I don’t think you can believe any rumor you read during the MLB off season, but if it’s true that Tucker wants $400M, then I think I’ll shift my support to bringing Bo back. I like Tucker’s profile better, especially for the Jays needs/lineup, but at a certain price point you have to consider term/value and whether it’s worth the investment rather than just saying “this player helps”. Xander helped the Padres too but they’d get rid of that contract for free if they could 2-3 years later. The Jays don’t need to get into that type of contract (length more so than AAV).

Hopefully this is resolved soon. The Jays have been one of the more active teams this winter and it still feels like nothing has happened. Very slow and boring.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 30 2025 @ 01:04 PM EST (#474096) #
So what are the options?

  • OF: Tucker: 4.4 268/371/483 - 136 11 yrs $36.4; Bellinger: 3.0 267/331/451 - 116 5 yrs $28; Kwan (Cleveland LF LH): 2 years of control, 3.2 278/350/399 - 113 1 yr $9.2
  • IF: Bo: 4.0 293/341/455 - 121 8 yrs $26; Bregman: 4.0 262/346/441 - 120 6 yrs $26.7; Eugenio Suárez: 2.6 230/306/450 - 108 3 yrs $21; Okamoto: 1.8 251/324/441 - 110 4 yrs $16; Moncada: 1.1 241/315/396 - 98 1 yr $?; Ketel Marte (Arizona 2B Sw): 4.8 280/365/495 - 136 5 yrs $15.6; Brendan Donovan (StL 2B/LF LH): 3.0 280/353/412 - 118 1 yr $5.8.
So lots of interesting options. I added years guaranteed and dollars per year for each guy (using MLBTR for estimates for free agents, Cot's for arbitration guys). Kwan really is cheap in dollars vs Tucker or Bellinger - less than 1/3rd the raw dollar cost. Similar for Marte & Donovan. Basically if the Jays are tight any combo of those 3 would be a far, far cheaper ($$$) way to build. Makes Kwan really tempting (an ideal #1/2 hitter). Marte might be the best of all players in the 'could be' list and at under $16 mil per year I see why Arizona would demand the world for him. Still can't see why the Cardinals are pushing Donovan onto the trade market - very underpriced for what he does, has a few years of control left, basically they are saying 'we can't afford anything now'.
uglyone - Tuesday, December 30 2025 @ 01:47 PM EST (#474097) #
part of the quiet is that things seem pretty clear - signing one of Tucker or Bo is kind of everything at this point. Either of those moves completes the lineup. Any of the other options would be a dissappointing step down from those, but Bellinger/Bregman wouldn't be disaster consolation prizes either.

Anything after that move would be gravy. If they could possibly double up on two of those names there that would be awesome, but probably not gonna happen. Other moves would just be tweaks and gravy at that point.
greenfrog - Tuesday, December 30 2025 @ 02:01 PM EST (#474098) #
Notable stat re Brendan Donovan:

Career against RHP (1503 PA): .293/.373/.439, 130 wRC+, 9.2 BB%, 13.5 K%

That would pair nicely with Clement, who is better against LHP than he is against RHP. The Blue Jays could stack Tucker, Barger and Donovan against RHP, with either Clement or Gimenez starting at SS in those games.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 30 2025 @ 04:57 PM EST (#474099) #
Funny looking at signings lately - $6 mil for Hunter Harvey, a reliever who threw just 10 2/3 IP last year, 93 ERA+ the year before, had 2 great years for Washington (22/23) but outside of that has been 'meh', just 11 saves lifetime too. Yet $6 mil plus $1.5 in incentives. Generally relievers are being signed for more than expected. Seems clubs are trying to stock up on quality arms in the pen. I wonder if we are getting closer to tandem starts (ie: pitcher A goes first 3-5, B goes another 3-5, C finishes it off)? I could see it working well with the right mix - a control artist followed by a flamethrower could mess hitters timing up something fierce, followed by a sidearmer and then the game is done. So, say, 5 IP by Bassitt, 3 by Varland, 1 by Rogers to finish it off. Hitters would never know what was coming next. I could see a team like Pittsburgh saying 'screw it' and going for it, but would a contender be willing to tell starters they get 3-5 IP max? I doubt it. But if done you could go to a 4 man rotation/8 man tandem with the last slot being shared by the remaining 5 guys depending who is rested/ready each game, or even a 3 man rotation/6 man tandem potentially 9 man team (3 with a max of 3 IP each game, then 2 days off before next usage) with 4 in the 'pen' who bridge any gaps/extra innings.
JB21 - Tuesday, December 30 2025 @ 07:47 PM EST (#474100) #
Have been here since 2002

2003 for me! From '94-'03 my fandom was wishy/washy to say the least, but dove back head first in 2003 and have been reading/participating ever since.
John Northey - Tuesday, December 30 2025 @ 08:08 PM EST (#474101) #
It was early in '05 I came here from the old ALT.SPORTS.BASEBALL.TOR-BLUEJAYS group.

My old quote on the bottom of every comment was
"Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down or the interest of the public must be increased in some way. If one or the other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every team in the face."

-- Chicago White Stockings owner Albert Spalding, 1881

A reminder that things never really change when it comes to how owners see the game. Also, very depressing looking back at 2004 and the comments from that year. Some hope early but by the end of April lots of 'this team is coming in last' which sadly was correct. Tons of spam back then too. Really don't miss that one iota.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 01:09 AM EST (#474102) #
John invited me here back around 2003 maybe or 2005 at the latest from usenet, when it was really starting to fade.

MAN, the vibrant discussions on usenet back in the day (Jays and Leafs), along with the resident trolls, etc.. How online life has changed..
JohnL - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 08:30 AM EST (#474103) #
Though I rarely post these days, I’ve been a very regular reader since 2003, maybe 2002. Thanks everyone who has contributed!

I quickly browsed a few 2002 pages this morning, including Coach’s baseball Top Ten of the year. JP Ricciardi had set up the Jays for “immediate and long-term success.”
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 11:23 AM EST (#474104) #
Looks like the Rendon saga is coming to an end with the recent restructuring of the remaining portion of his contract.

His 7/$245m contract — signed following the 2019 season — is a good reminder that FA mega-contracts occasionally go very wrong. As MLBTR notes, the contract “proved to be a catastrophic misstep for the Halos — one of the least-productive major signings in the sport’s history. Rendon played in only 257 games for Anaheim, slashing just .242/.348/.369 with 22 home runs in 1095 plate appearances.”

It’s not inconceivable that Cease or Tucker or Bo could end up being the next Strasburg or Rendon. Unlikely, but definitely not impossible.
Gerry - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 12:51 PM EST (#474105) #
Jays have signed Nic Enright to a two year minor league deal. Why two years you ask? Enright will miss all of 2026 after having Tommy John surgery. So really its a 2027 signing.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 01:49 PM EST (#474106) #
"It’s not inconceivable that Cease or Tucker or Bo could end up being the next Strasburg or Rendon. Unlikely, but definitely not impossible."

It's not inconceivable that I could win the lottery tomorrow. Unlikely but definitely not impossible.

I choose to look at the big contract players that work out for their teams rather than the worst ones. For every Strasburg there is a Wheeler or Sale.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 02:13 PM EST (#474107) #
The current FO has a good track record when it comes to signing free agents. I’m cautiously optimistic they’ll make good decisions this off-season. Just pointing out that there are no guarantees when it comes to free agent future performance. I think one Bauxite thought that Rendon was underpaid at $245m, and he turned out to be one of the worst-ever FA signings. Last year we all wanted Burnes, and he needed TJ surgery in year 1 of the contract. And Santander was a complete bust in year 1.

There is a significant element of unpredictability when it comes to free agent signings. That doesn’t mean the Blue Jays should back off their pursuit of Tucker and/or Bo.

scottt - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 03:18 PM EST (#474108) #
Enright has been quite good when healthy and would be under team controlled for up to 6 years.
A minor league contract doesn't affect the 40 roster.

Enright might have been motivated by the Jays facility or some ex-Cleveland players.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 03:32 PM EST (#474109) #
Rendon was a beast and pretty much single handedly won the World Series for the Nationals along with Strasburg on the pitching side. It's bizarre how he became a completely demotivated player in Los Angeles. I thought he could be a nice but low candidate and bounce back to his good years since he really wasn't that old.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 04:04 PM EST (#474110) #
Rendon was a mix of injuries and not caring anymore. That’s a very rare outcome. Some players lose their ability over the course of a contract but very few of them check out like Rendon did. He was a fantastic player prior to signing with the Angels. He was a better FA after 2019 than Tucker is now. Just horrible luck for the Angels. I trust Shapiro and Atkins when it comes to determining character more than I would the Angels, so that helps. Forecasting injury, especially for a pitcher, is impossible. They can break at any moment. It just comes with the risk. For hitters, both Tucker and Bo have suffered injuries over the past few years so that’s something to definitely bake into the equation.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 04:06 PM EST (#474111) #
The 2019 Nationals were weird - after winning it all their top 2 players (arguably, but 1-2 in bWAR in '19) fell apart after signing mega deals - Strasburg just 8 games left in his career -0.5 bWAR, Rendon 257 games 3.9 bWAR - most in year one (2020) 2.2 bWAR over 52 games (max of 60 that year). #3/4 were solid after - Max Scherzer and Juan Soto.

For the equivalent to happen here we'd need Springer and Vlad to collapse (they were 1/2 in bWAR), Gausman the top pitcher but Clement also was ahead of him.

Huh. Didn't notice how the Jays were so low for peak player. No one reached 5 bWAR, no pitcher reached 4 bWAR. 2023 was the same (Bo #1 at 4.8, Gausman top pitcher at 3.5). Every other playoff season (outside of 2020) the Jays had at least one guy reach 6 WAR. 1985 was seen as a year without stars but Barfield and Stieb were both 6 WAR guys that year (not noticed at the time due to Stieb only getting 14 wins, and Barfield's value being largely defense and OBP).
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 04:32 PM EST (#474112) #
There are always significant risks associated with players entering their 30s, as Rendon was at the time he signed with LAA (2020 was his age-30 season). It's true that pitchers can blow up at any time. But position players can suddenly decline in their 30s, as we've seen with Trout in recent years. Injuries often seem to be a factor in those situations.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 04:38 PM EST (#474113) #
Ben Clemens of Fangraphs predicted 10/$370m for Tucker. Here's his take on the player (we'll see how it holds up over time):

As I mentioned in the introduction, Tucker is the top free agent in the class, but he’s not in the same category as the market-topping stars who have signed record-setting deals in recent years. The teams most interested in him will be those that consider his results from 2024 and the first half of this year to be close to his true talent level. That would mean that the second half of this year, and of course the 110 missed games in the past two years, are just noise. I believe that a few teams will come to that conclusion, and that Tucker will sign an enormous deal, but one that falls meaningfully short of the huge deals of recent years.

If you take our projections for Tucker as gospel, the numbers being bandied about don’t add up. Add a premium for stars, round up because he’s the best player on the market, and I can convince my model that Tucker should break $300 million, but I can’t get anywhere near the $400 million to $500 million range that was a popular hand-wave estimate for Tucker before the start of this season. In the end, I told my model to pound sand and estimated him meaningfully higher, but I’m not at all confident in this number. I’ll be watching his market develop with great interest. It’s a fascinating one; he’s clearly the best free agent available, and yet if I were running a team, even as much as I’m in favor of paying up for stars and figuring things out later, I don’t think my offer would be competitive with the top of the league.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 06:20 PM EST (#474114) #
The only outfielders to break $325M or more in MLB history are: Juan Soto, Mike Trout, Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, and Giancarlo Stanton.

Tucker, at age 29, isn't going to reach that level, IMO. If he was 3-4 years younger, then maybe, but he's not a Cooperstown lock like the names above. I'd be shocked if any teams are offering him that, especially given what we have seen this winter with most teams not spending or prioritizing cutting salary from last year (ex. Mets, Yankees).

I really believe Tucker is going to the Dodgers on a short-term deal.
greenfrog - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 06:29 PM EST (#474115) #
I think $375-400m is probably too much but I would be fine with the Blue Jays going to that level to land him because (1) he’s relatively young, (2) there is a fair chance he has at least one 5+ WAR season in him, (3) contracts are getting bigger due to baseball inflation, and (4) the Blue Jays really need another impact bat near the top of their lineup.

But signing Bo for just over half that amount would also be a good choice.
scottt - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 07:20 PM EST (#474116) #
It's not about gospel, it's about Tucker possibly being the last piece on a World Championship team and how much teams are willing to overpay to sign him.
Many teams are pretty stretched out of their budgets and would prefer the alternatives.
The Dodgers might consider signing him so the Jays don't.
The Mets are a question mark. I don't understand what they are doing.
The Jays are probably just trying to not compete with themselves.

Is there a reason the Dodgers could offer more on a short deal than the Jays?
Or are people assuming Tucker would prefer to be with the Dodgers?
Tucker is from Tampa and the Jays have guys he could be comfortable with like Springer, whereas the Dodgers fans hate the Astros.
scottt - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 07:23 PM EST (#474117) #
Jays are signing Josh Winckowski back on a 2-year minor league deal.
Eh.
John Northey - Wednesday, December 31 2025 @ 10:57 PM EST (#474118) #
New market inefficiency - signing guys to 2 year minor league deals coming off injuries. Nic Enright and Josh Winckowski. Not a bad idea imo. Don't use up 40 man slots, since they are pure minor league deals from day one they shouldn't count against the luxury tax either until they are called up.
SK in NJ - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 12:33 PM EST (#474119) #
Imai to the Astros on a 3 year deal with opt outs.

Maybe the market will get moving now.
John Northey - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 12:51 PM EST (#474120) #
Read on Bluesky someone talking about Jose Offerman who used to make an insane number of errors at SS and it got me thinking 'what is the worst the Jays ever saw for that'?
  • 5 of the top 7 (all of top 3): Alfredo Griffin 1980 37 being the record, but over 30 in 79 and 81 as well.
  • Tony Fernandez: 30 in '85
  • #6: Russ Adams, worst for the 21st century at 26 in '05
  • 8/9: Bo Bichette 21/22 with 23 and 24 errors.
  • #10: Roy Howell 3B - 1978 with 22
  • 11/12 are Gruber & Hinke 89/03 respectively.
  • #13 is Willie Upshaw at 1B (surprising) in '83 with 21 - surprising as he had a good rep at 1B
  • Others over 20 are Alex Gonzalez '96, Roy Howell '79, Sprague '98, and Hinske '02
Funny thing is Griffin and Fernandez both won Gold Gloves later on, as did Gruber. So 20+ errors generally is limited to SS's but a few 3B were kept there despite throwing a lot into the stands. Upshaw is the oddity. The most for an OF is George Bell in '88 with 15. Just 7 times did an OF for the Jays make 10+ errors, with 5 of those being George Bell seasons. Others were Bob Bailor (78), and Rick Bosetti 79.

Basically, you don't see guys get shots at 30+ errors anymore and rarely 20+ as teams are far more willing to more guys to lower defensive positions if they boot the ball too much. Surprising as an error really isn't much worse than a missed ball. Better training now perhaps? Bo was the only guy over 10 for the Jays with 12 last year. Only 2 guys in the majors had 20+ (Elly De La Cruz and CJ Abrams both SS with Cruz' 26 the most). No one has had 30+ in the 20's (Cruz the closest with 29 in '24). Marcus Semien in Oakland in '15 had 35 at SS (became a great 2B in '21 and beyond), Ian Desmond in '10 was the only other one in the 2010-now time frame to crack 30 errors.

For comparison, for 2000-2009 there were 9 30+ error seasons (mixture of SS & 3B), 90s 12 cases including Offerman's 42 in '92 (yikes) - Offerman has 3 of the top 4, Mark Grudzielanek (ex-Expo) had 2 30+ error seasons then. The 80's saw 26 of those seasons (top 2 Rafael Ramirez a SS in Atlanta just shy of 40). The 70's saw 46 of those seasons with 5 in the 40's (Robin Yount with 44 in '75 led the way, in '82 he'd win a Gold Glove at SS, in '85 he was moved to the OF).

So what does this all mean? That as gloves and stat tracking increased, errors have gone down. At one time 30+ errors was acceptable for a SS and sometime for a 3B as well, but not any more, now 20+ makes teams shift guys quite often despite errors now being well known to be less of an issue than just not reaching balls (see Derek Jeter, left at SS despite poor range).
John Northey - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 01:01 PM EST (#474121) #
Damn, was hoping Imai would go to the NL - for a split second I thought he did there (still think of the Astros as an NL team even all these years later). 3/$54 mil - not bad. Plus $3 mil per if he throws 100+ IP each year so potentially a 3/$63 deal if he is healthy and reasonably productive. Also has annual opt-outs so he could be back on the market next winter when the Jays could need another starter (Gausman/Bieber both free agents then).
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 01:04 PM EST (#474122) #
I think we're overthinking Tucker's market. Here's what I think:

Vlad (before a STRONG 2025 season) signed 14 years and 36 million per. So I think it's safe to assume a team will offer Tucker the same AAV for less years, say 360 million for 10 years. I think he gets 350/10 offered.

Last year Bregman sat on the market and declined 6 years at 182 million (28.5 million per) so he could instead get $40/year from Boston and opt out. So we know he wants to exceed at least 142 million over 5 years. It's possible he signs again for short term with opt outs but more likely than not he wants and would sign a longer deal for somewhere in between what the Tigers and Red Sox offered him (28.5/per vs 40 per). Vlad is at 36 million per so Bregman will likely top out at around 30 million per over 5 or 7 years max imho. So let's say 150 million to 210 million if he can get deferments involved.

Bo is likely in a similar boat for AAV. Willy Adames got 7 years and 26 million per but he's likely going to play longer than Bo who is 2 years younger. I think Bo will get 30 million per but not more than 8 years tops which means 260 million.

Back to Tucker, he's better than both Bregman and Bo and not as good as Vlad (factoring in future value). He's going to get 30 to 35 million per and for 8 to 12 years. I'll predict 35 million for 11 years (3 less than VG Jr since he's 3 years older)... so 385 million but it will have deferments so actual value I'll be closer to 30 million per.
dalimon5 - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 01:12 PM EST (#474123) #
Might as well update predictions:

Bellinger to NYY
Bichette to Boston
Valdez to Mets
Bregman to Detroit
Tucker to Blue Jays in bidding war w/Mets and NYY
The other Rogers twin pitcher to Blue Jays
greenfrog - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 01:44 PM EST (#474124) #
Vladdy got $500m with no deferred money.

I guessing Tucker will garner $400m, or a bit more than that. There is a lot of money in baseball, and (as Ben Clemens wrote) at least one team will believe in Tucker’s high-water mark in his 2024 and early 2025 seasons and potential to put it all together in the next few seasons to pay that amount. I don’t know if the Blue Jays will be that team/one of those teams.
John Northey - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 02:07 PM EST (#474125) #
How is the market? It is strong and weak at the same time - Japanese players getting less than expected, but 'proven' ML players getting more. Not a ton more, but more. Schwarber and Alonzo both got 1 more year and more per year than expected. Naylor got more raw dollars but less per year (5 yrs vs 4, but $18.5 vs $20). Naylor is more what I expected - lately guys have been signing longer deals for less per year to help high spending clubs minimize their tax obligations today in exchange for less flexibility for the club in 5-10 years.

What does this mean for the Jays? Tucker has made it clear he wants a 'lifetime deal' so more years, less per year. He might be open to deferrals, in order to make that happen but also might want a big bonus up front which the Jays have shown a willingness to do (helps the player for taxes as does the deferrals). Bo is a more confusing case - what does he want? Who knows? Short term high AAV or a longer term 'set down roots' deal? He has said the right things lately, but does that mean anything? How are trade talks going with Cleveland for Kwan, with Arizona for Marte, with St Louis for Donavan? All solid options. Marte appears to have clubhouse issues from what I've read lately - thus explaining why Arizona is wanting to trade him and might stop the Jays from touching him despite his high level of play. Kwan would be sweet in LF (high end defense, potential lead off hitter post 2026, solid #2 guy in '26) and add a new element to the Jays (40-mid 50 SB every year). Donavan is in his prime (age 29 season) and is in arbitration years (thus cheaper than his production) with solid OBP 342 and up, like Schneider a 2B/LF who can play 3B in a pinch (or even SS), and RF as well.

My gut still is resigning Bo or signing Tucker. The Jays want a big bang to push season ticket sales through the roof, they want sell outs nearly every game in '26, and TV ratings through the roof (1+ mil viewers per game, or about 4 times what any other club gets). Lose Bo and you need to do something to draw eyeballs and I doubt a trade does it, but signing the #1 hitter and #1 pitcher this offseason might (should).
scottt - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 02:52 PM EST (#474126) #
Remuneration is not linear.
Teams might be willing to pay a premium to get the best players, but if the payroll is limited, it might make more sense to spend that money on several good players.

Right now, it seems that teams are avoiding longer contracts.
So, basically avoiding risk and not paying for non productive years.
That reminds me when the Mets gave James McCann 16M for 2 years of replacement level value instead of paying Realmuto who got over 23M a year with the Phillies but averaged about 4 WAR a year.
Teams are very weary of Japanese and Korean players with questionable tools.

Vladdy has been the best first baseman in the league.
Tucker is not the best corner outfielder.
The WAR value is often misleading.
A 4 WAR player at a position where the next best player is only worth 2 WAR is worth more than a 4 WAR players at a position with several 3 WAR players.
Then, there's the age and the player popularity.


Michael - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 04:32 PM EST (#474127) #
It is also possible that the next collective contract is impacting teams. You don't necessarily want to pay big for a short contract if there is going to be a lockout/strike impacting one of the few years you go. In addition, a pillow contract for a player has more risk than usual as if you finish either into a lock out or strike OR into a new harder salary cap system or more penalty for over a soft cap that may impact future contracts. Hard to know for sure, but owners may have some thoughts on what they expect and/or how likely they are to cause the lockout/non-compromise.

Hopefully not, it would suck if a strike/lockout ends the Jays top competitiveness like after the last two worldseries in the 90s.
John Northey - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 05:23 PM EST (#474128) #
Agreed Michael - I really, really hope we don't see a nightmare like '94/'95. Especially with the Jays on the edge of a WOW era, or so it feels. Much like when they stepped forward in '91 with the big trades to shift from phase 1 (83-90, Bell-Moseby-Barfield, Stieb-Key Henke) to phase 2 (91-93 Alomar-White-Carter, Ward Winfield-Molitor). Sadly phase 2 ended in '94 and when Ash took over it fell apart in-spite of having so many high end players still there and top prospects. Sadly, Ash's first mistake was thinking the system was going to change in the owners favor post strike thus didn't sign Alomar when he had the chance. Then the ownership went super-cheap (Interbrew, a European beer company bought out Labatt's and had zero interest in baseball).

This time we have cash, and odds are low that Rogers will suddenly be sold to someone who thinks baseball is irrelevant. Our GM isn't about to be dumped for a guy who did the old 'Peter principle' of climbing until he was no longer able to handle the work, then left there waaaay too long. Of course, some feel Atkins was that before this year and some still do feel that way about him. However, this club has made the playoffs which Ash's never did (never even came close, maxing out at 88 wins and 3rd place vs Atkin's 2 seconds and a 1st with a peak of 94 wins).

As to deals - many GM's are probably planning on having contracts end post 2027 so any new rules can be applied to guys after that. New rules will be in place for '28 most likely with a shot at no luxury tax in '27 (depending how the current agreement is set up - I suspect players will want that to happen as would the big clubs like the Jays, Dodgers, NYY). Any major shifts would be worked in slowly most likely over a series of years, so a 5 year deal right now might not be a nightmare but 10+ year deals could be.

There won't be a solid cap unless we lose MLB for '27/'28 and maybe '29 as well. I really hope owners aren't dumb enough to think they can get it any other way, and aren't greedy enough to force the issue to that point. Increase the luxury tax, add new levels to it, fine - I suspect players will accept that in exchange for a higher minimum salary and perhaps better benefits (get to full medical for life with less ML service time for example - super valuable if living in the USA).
greenfrog - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 07:08 PM EST (#474129) #
In 2024, Tucker posted 4.2 fWAR...in 78 games. That's roughly an 8 WAR player over a full season.

That's probably not going to happen in the years ahead, but could he post 5-6 WAR on a championship-calibre Blue Jays team in 2026? I could see that happening.
John Northey - Thursday, January 01 2026 @ 09:16 PM EST (#474130) #
A big challenge now is the Jays are solid at all 9 hitting positions so upgrades are EXPENSIVE. Safe to say they have 2-3 WAR at every slot, lowest might be LF (Lukes 1.6, Schneider 1.4 = 3.0 total but combine for more than 162 games 107+92 so shift to 162 and you get 2.4). Santander in RF is at 1.3 over 141 games, but if he plays that badly he might be an expensive bench piece. Varsho listed at 1.9 (with negative defense?). At 2.3+ is Vlad-Clement-Gimenez-Barger-Kirk-Springer. Given they won't release Santander that makes LF the easiest upgrade, and if they sign Tucker (4.4) that would upgrade a corner by 2 wins, and might help Santander if he was limited to LF instead of RF (shorter throws, maybe less stress so he can focus more on hitting). Plus then Lukes/Schneider could give Santander more days off. If Santander struggles easy to see him platooning with Schneider (the LH side is Santander's stronger side iirc).

When a team hits this point it is much harder to upgrade than when you have an obvious hole. ZIPS has the Yankees sub 2 WAR in LF and DH and at 2.2 at 1B - all pure hitting positions thus should be easy to fix, emphasis on 'should be'. If the Yankees sign Bellinger or Tucker they solve one of those immediately. At least until someone gets hurt - if Judge goes down the Yankees season is over (7.6 WAR projected by ZIPS - you can't replace that). Boston is like the Jays - 2.0 to 4.0 everywhere. 3B/C the 2 weakest at 2.0 each, but even then you are at an acceptable level, thus hard to improve upon. 2B is 2.3 - so Bo could be useful there. Seattle's hole is DH (sub 2 WAR) and RF (2.0) with 5's at C and CF - thus again hard to upgrade, but with DH being the weakness they should be able to - I suspect they'll try to DH Raleigh more often to ensure his legs survive the season. ZIPS has a LOT of teams to do still including the Jays.

FYI: Bellinger is listed by ZIPS at 3.3 WAR, Bregman 3.1. Tucker and Bo aren't listed yet (no Cubs or Jays yet). For ugly look at the White Sox - over 2 at 2 positions, CF and SS, with 4 positions sub 1 WAR. Yikes. Marte is at 4.2. No real surprises - there rarely are in projections.
SK in NJ - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 11:34 AM EST (#474131) #
"That's probably not going to happen in the years ahead, but could he post 5-6 WAR on a championship-calibre Blue Jays team in 2026? I could see that happening."


Tucker definitely has the highest ceiling of the players in free agency. He's basically a 4-5 WAR player every year, and 2024-25 were hampered by injuries. It's not unreasonable to think he has a couple of 5+ WAR seasons in him if healthy. The issue as mentioned before is how long of a contract he's going to command, and how much risk the Jays are willing to take on with contract length. All things being equal, he's definitely the player the Jays should target, but all things won't be equal (contract dollars/length). Springer will be 36 in the final year of his contract. Tucker would have his age 36 season in year 8 of a contract. So that might be the sweet spot. See if an 8 year deal is possible. Limits the amount of 35+ years and still enough for Tucker's overall money to reach a high enough number (guessing he wants at least $300M).
John Northey - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 03:07 PM EST (#474132) #
Hmm... gets me thinking (dangerous I know), what is the range for the Jays likely regulars right now? Using fWAR and 100+ game or 20+ start seasons only.
  • C: Kirk: 2.3-4.7
  • 1B: Vlad: 0.3-6.3 (his first 2 100 game seasons)
  • 2B: Clement: 2.1-3.2 (his only 100 game seasons)
  • 3B: Barger: 2.2 (only has 1 full season)
  • SS: Gimenez: 1.0-6.1 (the 1.0 was last year in 101 games)
  • LF: Lukes: 1.8 (same as Barger)
  • CF: Varsho: 1.9-4.3
  • RF: Santander: -0.2-3.2, yes his first full year was negative WAR, last year was just 54 games
  • DH: Springer: 1.1-6.1 (1.1 was '24, last year was his 2nd best at 5.2 so he could be at either end of the range)
  • SP: Gausman: 2.0-5.5
  • SP: Cease: 3.4-4.7
  • SP: Bieber: 2.1-5.5
  • SP: Yesavage & Ponce: lord knows with 8 ML starts between them (regular season)
  • SP: Berrios: 0.9-4.4
So the rotation has 3 guys who, if healthy, should be 2-5 WAR guys plus 2 who are total wild cards (but likely to be damn good) plus an emergency guy in Berrios who should be 'meh' but unlikely to be a total disaster if called upon. Lauer is 1.1-2.3 in his years as a full-time starter (Milwaukee/SD) and was in that range last year too (sub 20 starts). The pen is such a crap shoot that WAR really doesn't work. So lineup worst case-best case is 12.5-37.9 if you assume the bench works out to a 0 net. 32.6 is what the batters did last year. This is without adding a Bo/Tucker/whoever which is likely to happen as well. 12.5 would be better than 5 teams last year so somewhere between Cincinnati (13.2) and Washington (8.5) and that would be if EVERYONE played at the worst level they ever have in their careers (very unlikely, as is them all playing at their peak levels).

Rotation is a range of 8.4-20.1 if you use Berrios instead of Yesavage & Ponce and put the 5 hole as a 0 across the board. Last year the starters were 8.5, barely better than worst case for 2026. I like the odds of the Jays rotation being visibly better. 20.1 would be behind only the Phillies last year (21.5!). In Jays history the rotation peaked at 18.7 in 2008, and bottomed out in 2012 at 4.6 (ignoring 2020's freakshow 60 game 2.4). Boy did the rotation crash fast from 2008 to 2012. '08 was Halladay/Burnett both over 5 with 2's from McGowan and Litsch while Marcum/Richmond/Purcey/Parrish combined for a 3.1 - wow. 2012 only had Morrow over 1.0, and Happ at 1.0 on the dot. Ugly year, who knew 3 years later the Jays would be in the playoffs?
scottt - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 03:27 PM EST (#474133) #
Did Imai sign with the Westernest team with an offer?
Michael - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 04:03 PM EST (#474134) #
I took John's number and put together a little simulation.

For each player I took John's low number as a 10% number, the high number as an 90% number. I then put their 50% as half way between the high and low. I put their 0% as the same distance from mid to low below low and their 100% as the same distance between high and mid above high.

So for Vlad that means 2.3-4.7 from John turns into a 0% of 1.1, a 10% of 2.3, a 50% of 3.5, a 90% of 4.7 and a 100% of 5.9. And so on for each player. For the two with only 1 number I made the low 1 less than the number and the high 1 higher so Barger is 0.2/1.2/2.2/3.2/4.2 for the same 0/10/50/90/100 range. For Yesavage I used the low the 0.3 WAR he had last year in 3 starts and the high as 10 times that at 3.0. For Ponce I used the low as the -0.9 he'd had in his worse of the two ML seasons and the high as 4.2 WAR (as his KBO season was 8.4 WAR in KBO so I figured half that to translate from Korea to MLB) so he has a wide range.

For each player I then simulated a number from 0 to 1 randomly and then picked where that would put them in the generated range of 0 to 100% with the triangle shape. I summed up the hitters, pitchers, and total and did a quick 20 such simulations in excel.

The hitters give the following simulated numbers for team WAR:
min: 15.08
25%: 22.90
Avg: 24.85
50%: 24.99
75%: 28.03
max: 34.25

The 6 listed pitchers give the following simulated for team WAR:
min: 10.09
25%: 14.33
Avg: 16.81
50%: 15.57
75%: 19.98
max: 22.50

The total (because a given min/max hitting outcome was unlikely to be with the min/max pitching) for the simulated team was:
min: 29.44
25%: 37.30
avg: 41.66
50%: 43.24
75%: 46.56
max: 49.45

So those are the rough range of outcomes we are looking at from those teams. There is no WAR for bench or bullpen, but these numbers also don't assume much of an injury eliminates a season as only about half of the players had even a 0% at or below 0 WAR. Adding Bo would likely add ~2 to this total and Tucker ~3 or so I think.

By the way from Fan Graphs last year the Jays total team positive only WAR was 47.4 and the total including negative was 42.9. So it makes sense that we are simulating and trending for around that or just below that on average/50% before adding one more Bo/Tucker like piece, and would likely be around to a little over that if adding them.
greenfrog - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 07:30 PM EST (#474135) #
The Blue Jays are reportedly "in the mix" for the top four position player FAs, per Feinsand (who is quoted in this Sportsnet article):

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/report-blue-jays-in-mix-for-tucker-bichette-bellinger-and-bregman/

But it also sounds as though Bregman could well end up in Boston (per Olney).

Feinsand (who is quoted in the article) says the Jays "remain the favourite to land Tucker," but those kinds of comments make me nervous -- reminiscent of the brief and inaccurate surge in speculation that Ohtani and Sasaki were going to land in Toronto.

Is there actually any substance to these suggestions, or are these writers essentially making stuff up to get clicks? Feinsand seems like one of the more responsible MLB reporters when it comes to trade rumours.
uglyone - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 07:36 PM EST (#474136) #
I think it was buster maybe that actually described it as the Jays having the highest bid out there, which may or may not make them the favorite I guess.
greenfrog - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 08:00 PM EST (#474137) #
Per mlb.com:

“Jan. 2: Red Sox make 'aggressive offer' to Bregman (report)

Is Alex Bregman likely to return to the Red Sox? ESPN's Buster Olney thinks so. He said during Friday's edition of "First Up with Korolnek and Colaiacovo" in Toronto that he thinks a Red Sox-Bregman reunion will happen and then reported that Boston has made ‘an aggressive offer’ to the star third baseman.”
scottt - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 08:49 PM EST (#474138) #
Boston has nobody at 3B right now.
John Northey - Friday, January 02 2026 @ 11:53 PM EST (#474139) #
Marcelo Mayer is who FanGraphs projects to be at 3B for the Red Sox - entering age 23 season had a 80 wRC+ over 136 PA last year, 113 in AAA, 140 in AA in '24. A fast climber in their system, mostly SS/2B in the minors but was mostly at 3B last year when Bregman was hurt. Depending on their budget they might be smart to cut ties with Bregman, depending on his demands.
greenfrog - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 08:38 AM EST (#474140) #
I'm still hoping the Blue Jays land Tucker and another position player (Bichette or Marte or Donovan or someone else of that calibre). I'm guessing the front office wants to "go big" by making an aggressive couple of moves like this. I think they're trying hard to make this happen. They know the AL East will be very competitive this year and they want to be the best team in the division starting in April.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 09:25 AM EST (#474141) #
If they can get the two best players in free agency (Tucker and Cease) that would be huge. It allows them to keep most of their promising arms and top prospects in their farm system which will help the rest of the decade. If they land the top 3 then we're looking at a new unprecedented era of ownership coinciding with new ownership structure (no Bell/Tanenbaumn to share profits with).
greenfrog - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 09:35 AM EST (#474142) #
Also if a salary cap or new constraints/penalties on spending is coming after 2026, this would be a good time to spend big in an all-out effort to win the World Series this year.
SK in NJ - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 01:32 PM EST (#474143) #
Jays have signed Okamoto.

Very interesting.
uglyone - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:04 PM EST (#474144) #
Oh no. That's not good.

He's not great and likely means no Bo or Tucker.

Glevin - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:14 PM EST (#474145) #
I like the signing but it it really depends on how rest off offseason goes. If this is it, a little disappointing. If there are more moves, then could be great.
johnny was - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:14 PM EST (#474146) #
It's a pyrrhic victory if this pushes Bo to Boston, where he's a .329/.382./.524 hitter. If the Jays do follow up by signing Tucker, someone productive is losing PT, too. At least Not Ohtani reportedly plays good defense.
uglyone - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:18 PM EST (#474147) #
Good defense at....1B.


Maybe we get lucky and they find a trade partner for Santander somehow.
SK in NJ - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:27 PM EST (#474148) #
My guess is the Jays will trade Santander if they end up signing another bat. Springer is a better much hitter at DH, and a team that values defense as much as the Jays do probably want to start Clement somewhere.
scottt - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:37 PM EST (#474149) #
Santander is a switch hitting outfielder.
This is another right bat in the infield.
Who's losing playing time here?
Davis Schneider?
scottt - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:44 PM EST (#474150) #
He can play 1B when Vlad is the DH, but that only happens twice a month.
Maybe play 3B against lefties?
Clement hammers lefties. 
I guess it's OK, if they sign Tucker.
Less OK, if they sign Bichette.
Not good if they get neither.
johnny was - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:49 PM EST (#474151) #
If they get another hitter without making a trade, you have to figure there's no place for Schneider, Barger loses at bats, and Clement is a pure bench guy. There's a lot of injury depth, for sure, which matters given how much time Santander and Okamoto lost last year.

The projection models see Okamoto putting up about the same line as Barger last year. Wonder what they paid for that...
Nigel - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:51 PM EST (#474152) #
Hard to see the logic in this. Maybe as a precursor to a trade? It must mean they have determined that they are out in the other big name free agents. Weird fit on the roster regardless.
Cracka - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:51 PM EST (#474153) #
I would guess that Clement and Barger stand to lose the most playing time with Okamoto on the team - combined they started 133 games at 3B last season (and every playoff game). Vlady could see more starts more at DH, maybe as many as 40 games (was just 24 times last season). If there's another big signing - Bichette or Tucker - that's really going to cause a ripple effect and almost certainly cost someone (Schneider, Lukes, Clement, Barger?) their spot on the team in 2026.
uglyone - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:53 PM EST (#474154) #
4 x $15m for his age 30-33 seasons.

hopefully this means a trade or two is coming.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 02:54 PM EST (#474155) #
I love this signing and love that the Jays are aggressive and not taking chances of losing on some players while waiting for others. If it lessens their chances to sign Bo or Tucker who are not coming down in price or biding time then so be it.

I wouldn't pass on a player that wants to come here (Okamoto) and let the off season go by just because Bo might sign with a rival and might project well there based on small sample size. I want this FO to keep being aggressive and chasing players that want to come here like Cease and Okamoto.

I see them trading Varsho if they can't extend him and keeping Santander who has a good contract.
uglyone - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:02 PM EST (#474156) #
the projections have him as a solid 110-115wrc+ type hitter, which is what i felt he would be at based on the scouting reports. he may or may not be an upgrade on Schneider. we'll see.

hopefully he can play some position other than 1B capably.
scottt - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:05 PM EST (#474157) #
The backup for Varsho is Straw. Huge drop off. That's not happening.

SK in NJ - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:08 PM EST (#474158) #
It's 4yrs/$60m with no opt outs. They must really like him. The bat looks like it will play against MLB pitching. It's just about where he fits defensively. He doesn't have much experience in the OF apparently. Being an actual 1B backup to Vlad likely had some value, but you don't give him that contract unless you believe he's starting somewhere. Curious to see where the Jays value him defensively. If they view him as a 3B regularly, then I think that does spell the end for Bichette. If it's more of a LF/3B hybrid role, then opens up a bit more possibilities.

Either way, it may not be the best baseball move to dump Santander with his value this low, but add Tucker/Bo into this lineup, and I don't see another realistic alternative unless they trade Barger or Clement.
Kelekin - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:19 PM EST (#474159) #
Okamoto is an above-average 3B in NPB, and will translate to an average 3B here. He's miles ahead of the concerns around Murakami, so I'm not worried.

Excited by the signing. I think it was unrealistic to expect both Tucker and Bichette given how many big teams haven't even signed a big FA yet this off-season. But hoping we still get one.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:20 PM EST (#474160) #
If you believe in selling high and buying low then you sell on guys like Barger and Clement and buy on guys like Okamoto and keep Santander.
uglyone - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:32 PM EST (#474161) #
yeah Kelekin the deal only really makes sense if they think he can legit handle 3B defensively. and they deserve the benefit of the doubt in evaluating defense so hopefully they're right again.

that would definitely mean they're out on Bo tho.
SK in NJ - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 03:35 PM EST (#474162) #
Agreed, if the Jays view him as a 3B, then Bo is gone. Whether that means Tucker is still realistic remains to be seen.
Kelekin - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 04:06 PM EST (#474166) #
I'm not feeling 100% sure they're out on Bo. You can always have Clement be the super utility infielder.
dalimon5 - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 04:11 PM EST (#474168) #
I fully expect Tucker or Bo to sign here. Ernie I also think they view as a super utility Zobrist type. If you have 1 injury to your starting 9 then Ernie becomes a full time player. If everyone is healthy and no injuries (never happened before) then Ernie can play 80 games.
mendocino - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 06:07 PM EST (#474186) #
maybe Gimenez becomes the "Myles Straw" of the infield
greenfrog - Saturday, January 03 2026 @ 06:28 PM EST (#474190) #
Fangraphs ranked Okamoto as their #21 FA this off-season. Here is part of their (ungated) writeup on him:

Okamoto isn’t the same kind of shooting star talent as Munetaka Murakami, but he’s been the better hitter of the two corner infielders over the last three years. He hits for power and average, rarely strikes out, and consistently posts double-digit walk rates to boot. If you enjoyed the Blue Jays this October, he’s their kind of hitter; he puts the ball in the air plenty and with authority, but his true standout skill is doing that without piling up strikeouts. As Eric noted in his scouting report, Okamoto has also improved against high velocity fastballs in the past few years, which is a key point of failure for NPB hitters.

Still, let’s not get too crazy here. We’re not necessarily talking about Alejandro Kirk as a third baseman; I expect that Okamoto will strike out far more in the majors than he did in Japan, and he’s up there looking to do damage, not slap one the other way. His game is doubles over dingers, but it’s a ton of both. It might also be more first base than third, which I baked into my estimation. I have him down as a solid hitter (though not an overwhelmingly good one) who’s without an obvious defensive home. I think that will land him a four-year deal with some fancy bells and whistles for both him and the club that signs him. I have legitimately no clue which bells and whistles – but luckily, that’s outside of the scope of this exercise.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 05 2026 @ 06:37 AM EST (#474247) #
I won't hijack the main thread so I'm posting this here. These are most of the questions from The Athletics year end baseball Quiz. Test your baseball knowledge, they're not easy!

1) Don Baylor started his MLB career by playing 16 seasons without reaching the World series. Then he finished his career by playing in3 World Series in a row, for three different teams. What were these 3 teams?
a) Twins, A's, Giants b) Yankees, Red Sox, Angels c) Red Sox, Twins, A's d) Yankees, Angels, Orioles

2) Which slugger, who hit more than 300 career home runs, wore No. 25 while winning the World Series MVP for the 2002 Angels?
a) Jim Edmonds b) Troy Glaus c) Tim Salmon d) Garret Anderson

3) Mike Moore has the most victories(161) of any pitcher taken 1st overall in the draft. Who ranks second on the list?
a) Gerrit Cole b) David Price c) Stephen Strasburg d) Ben McDonald

4) Which pitcher, who wore No.25, is the only one to have a 20 win season for both the Yankees and Dodgers?
a)Hiroki Kuroda b)Kevin Brown c)Tommy John d)Al Downing

5) Which is the only franchise to repeat as World Series champions in two different cities?
a)Brooklyn and LA Dodgers b)Boston and Milwaukee Braves c)Philadelphia and Oakland A's d)New York and San Francisco Giants

6) The St. Louis Cardinals have the second most championships (11) but have never repeated. Which hall of fame pitcher lost Game 7 for the Cardinals that would have made them repeat champions?
a)Bob Gibson,1968 b) Steve Carlton,1957 c)John Tudor,1985 d)Dizzy Dean,1943

7) Which Cy Young winner pitched for the Yankees in the 1997 World Series but did not get into a game when they repeated the next year?
a)Catfish hunter b)Sparky Lyle c)Ron Guidry d)Goose Goosage

8) Who is the only pitcher to start in both the 1992 and 1993 World Series when the Blue Jays won back-to-back titles?
a)Todd Stottlemeyer b)Jimmy Key c)Jack Morris d) Juan Guzman

9) Which pitcher, who ranks second on the MLB list for most career appearances, won the first and last games of the 2000 World Series when the Yankees clinched their third title in a row?
a)Randy Chaote b)Mariano Rivera c)Mike Stanton d)Jeff Nelson

10) Who is the only World Series MVP who also won consecutive regular season MVP awards?
a)Stan Musial b)Joe Morgan c)Frank Robinson d)Mike Schmidt





ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 05 2026 @ 07:12 AM EST (#474248) #
11)Miguel Cabrera, the AL MVP in 2012 and 2013, is one of three players in MLB history with 3000 hits, 500 home runs and a .300 avg. Who are the other two?
a) Willie Mays and Albert Pujols b)Hank Aaron and Ted Williams c) Jimmie Foxx and Ted Williams d)Hank Aaron and Willie Mays

12)Mickey Mantle, the AL MVP in 1956 and 1957, Is one of 3 switch hitters in MLB history with at least 350 career home runs and a .290 career average. Chipper Jones is another. Who is the third?
a)Carlos Beltran b)Lance Berkman c)Mark Teixeira d)Eddie Murray

13)Denny McLain won the Cy Young award in 1968 and 1969, sharing the latter honor with the only Cuban-born pitcher to win it. Who is he?
a)Luis Tiant b)Mike Cuellar c)Pedro Ramos d)Camilo Pascual

14)Who led the AL League in stolen bases in both 2024 and 2025?
a)Bobby Witt Jr. b)Jose Caballero c)Jose Ramirez d)Anthony Volpe

15)Ichiro Suzuki is one of three players with 3000 hits who played entirely in the World series era ( 1903-present) but never got to the Fall Classic. who are the other two?
a)Craig Biggio and Rod Carew b)Rod Carew and Rafael Palmeiro c)Ernie Banks and Rafael Palmeiro d)Ernie Banks and Andre Dawson

16)Three pitchers have 100 wins and 50 saves in the 2000's. Which one does not?
a)Derek Lowe b)Ian Kennedy c)Ryan Dempster d)John Smoltz

17)Three players in baseball history have 70 extra base hits and 70 stolen bases in the same season. Two are Ty Cobb and Ronald Acuna Jr. Who is the third?
a)Cesar Cedeno b)Jacob Ellersby c)Juan Samuel d)Curtis Granderson

18)Which pitcher led his league in innings and strikeouts this season while also winning a Gold Glove?
a)Garret Crochet b)Logan Webb c)Seth Lugo d)Max Fried

19)Which team has used an MLB-high 13 managers ( Min. 10 games) since 2000?
a)Chicago White Sox b) New York Mets c)Florida/Miami Marlins d)Texas Rangers

20) Octavio Dotel(1973-2025) worked three innings to win the Mets famous 15 inning victory over the Braves in Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS. Two of the Mets relievers that day finished their careers with over 200 victories. Who are they?
a)Mike Hampton and Hideo Nomo b)Orel Hershier and Kenny Rogers c)David Cone and Rick Reed d)Al Leiter and Oliver Perez
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 05 2026 @ 07:16 AM EST (#474249) #
The answers are 1)c 2)b 3)b 4)c 5)c 6)a 7)b 8)d 9)c 10)d 11)d 12)b 13)b 14)b 15)b 16)d 17)c 18)b 19)c 20)b

I'll have 20 more tomorrow.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 05 2026 @ 09:21 PM EST (#474278) #
21) Mike Greenwell is one of only 3 players with 1250 hits, 125 home runs and a career .300 batting average for the Red Sox. ted Williams is another. Who is the third?
a)Dustin Pedroia b)Mookie Betts c)Wade Boggs d)Nomar Garciaparra

22) Bobby Jenks had only 6 career regular season saves when he closed out the World Series for the Chicago White Sox in 2025 .Who led the White Sox in saves that season with 34?
a)Shingo Takatsu b)Roberto Hernandez c)Keith Foulke d) Dustin Hermanson

23) Davey Johnson had 1372 victories and a .562 winning percentage as a manager. Who is the only other manager active in the last 50 years with more wins and a better winning percentage?
a)Earl Weaver b)Mike Scioscia c)Billy Martin d)Dusty Baker

24) Randy Jones won the 1976 Cy Young award and had 92 wins in his San Diego career. Who is the only pitcher with more wins for the Padres?
a)Bob Tewksbury b)Eric Show c)Jake Peavy d)Gaylord Perry

25) Chet Lemon, the center fielder for the 1984 World Series champions, Detroit Tigers, had 55.6 bWAR for his career. Three other players on that team had more bWAR - Alan Trammel, Lou Whitaker and who else?
a)Darrell Evans b)Kirk Gibson c)Jack Morris d)Lance Parrish

26) Dave Parker is one of two players to appear in the final game of both the 1970's and 1980's. Who is the other?
a)Dennis Eckersley b)Bob Welch c)Rick Dempsey d)Don Robinson

27) Ryne Sandberg had one career hit for the Philadelphia Phillies and 2385 for the Chicago Cubs. The Phillies hit was the first of his career in 1981 against the Cubs at Wrigley field. Which future 20 game winner gave it up?
a)Fergie Jenkins b)Mike Krukow c)Rick Reuschel d)Rick Sutcliffe

28) Diego Segui threw the first pitch in the history of what franchise?
a)Seattle Mariners b)Seattle Pilots c)Milwaukee Brewers d)Kansas City Royals

29) Jeff Torborg was the catcher for Sandy Koufax's perfect game in 1965 and later managed for parts of 11 seasons. Three of these managers also caught a perfect game. Which one did not?
a)Joe Girardi b)Yogi Berra c)Joe Torre d)Bob Boone

30)Shohei Ohtani pitched in the final game of the World Series in the same season as he won the MVP. Who was the last pitcher to do this?
a)Justin Verlander,2011 b)Carl Hubbell,1936 c)Willie Hernandez,1984 d)Roger Clemens,1986
ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 05 2026 @ 09:59 PM EST (#474279) #
31) Ohtani has 280 career home runs in 4,329 plate appearances. How do Babe Ruth, Aaron Judge and Ohtani rank in home runs at that stage of their career?
a)Ruth, Judge, Ohtani b)Judge, Ohtani, Ruth c)Ohtani, Ruth, Judge d)Ohtani, Judge, Ruth

32) Since arriving in the majors in 2018, Ohtani has made 100 starts with a 3.00 ERA, a .661 winning percentage, and 11.4 strikeouts per 9 innings. Only one other pitcher with this many starts has better numbers in all 3 of these categories. Who is he?
a)Brandon Woodruff b)Zack Wheeler c)Chris Sale d)Gerrit Cole

33) Cal Raleigh(60), Kyle Schwarber(56) and Ohtani(55) became the first trio of players to hit55 or more runs in the same season since2001. Which 3 sluggers hit at least 55 home runs that year?
a)Barry Bonds, Luis Gonzalez, Sammy Sosa b)Barry Bonds, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa c)Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez d)Luis Gonzalez, Ken Griffey Jr., Mark McGwire

34) Ohtani has played at least 10 games in 25 different MLB parks. In which venue does he have his lowest batting average (.136) and OPS (.612)
a)Kaufman Stadium (Kansas City) b)Petco Park ( San Diego) c)Yankee Stadium d)T-mobile Park (Seattle)

35) In the last 5 years, Judge and Ohtani have combined to win 7 of 10 MVP awards. The others went to which three players?
a)Ronald Acuna Jr>, Cody Bellinger, and Juan Sota b)Ronald Acuna Jr., Paul Goldschmidt, and Bryce Harper
c)Ronald Acuna Jr., Mookie Betts, and Paul Goldschmidt d) Jose Altuve, Bryce Harper and Mike Trout

36) In 2025, Judge became the third player to win a batting title and hit 50 home runs in a season. Who are the other two?
a)George Foster & Albert Pujols b)Jimmie Foxx & Mickey Mantle c)Willie Mays and Ted Williams d)Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth

37)Which pitcher -who also gave up Alex Rodriguez's final home run - has surrendered the most home runs to Judge?
a)Kevin Gausman b)Chris Sale c)Jose Berrios d)Marcus Stroman

38) Besides Judge, who has the most career wins above replacement for the Yankees but is not in the Hall of Fame?
a)Thurman Munson b)Roy White c)Willie Randolph d)Ron Guidry

39) The Blue Jays have now won two World Series and lost one. Which other franchise has a 2-1 record in the World Series?
a)none b)Houston c)Pittsburgh d)Kansas City

40) The LA Dodgers have now faced 10 different AL franchises in the World Series. Which one of these have they not faced?
a)Minnesota b)Cleveland c)Texas d)Chicago White Sox

41) Clayton Kershaw became only the 4th lefthander with 3000 strikeouts joining Randy Johnson, Steve Carlton and CC Sabathia. Which lefty and former World Series MVP came closest to 3000 without reaching the mark?
a)Jerry Koosman b)Mickey Lolich c)Cole Hamels d)Tom Glavine

ISLAND BOY - Monday, January 05 2026 @ 10:04 PM EST (#474280) #
Answers: 21)d 22)d 23)a 24)b 25)a 26)d 27)b 28)a 29)c 30)c
31)b 32)d 33)a 34)c 35)b 36)b 37)a 38)c 39)a 40)c 41)b
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