Top 30 Prospects Summary

Saturday, March 02 2019 @ 08:19 PM EST

Contributed by: John Northey

Seems I've found as many top 30 lists as I'm going to at this point without subscribing to a dozen services. Time to summarize them before the season gets going.

Here at Batter's Box we have a top 30 list made every year, but so do many others. What is the consensus out there? Are there outliers who we should consider, are some lists more bizarre than others? Here are 10 lists, some longer than others. A full 30 from 6, Top 10 from Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus, but just a top 4 from Sickles and Keith Law as neither has a full top 10 available outside of pay walls. Ah well, nothing I can do about that.

Every single list has Vlad #1, Bo #2, Danny Jansen #3 on all but 2, Nate Pearson #3 on those 2 plus 4th on 5 and once ranked #6 and once #7 (Sickles abbreviated list doesn't have him, instead having Jordan Groshans).

In all 46 different players are listed. 3 at 1B, 3 at 2B, 1 at 3B, 9 at SS, 7 at CA, 7 OF, 2 LHP, 14 RHP. Obviously a lot of focus has been at SS/CA which is good as you can move from SS to anywhere but catcher easily while catchers are notoriously hard to develop (especially here).

The lists by source...
RankBatters BoxMLB.comJays JournalFanGraphsBlueBird BanterTSNBaseball AmericaSicklesBaseball ProspectusKeith Law
1Vladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir GuerreroVladimir Guerrero
2Bo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo BichetteBo Bichette
3Danny JansenDanny JansenDanny JansenDanny JansenDanny JansenDanny JansenDanny JansenDanny JansenNate PearsonNate Pearson
4Nate PearsonNate PearsonEric PardinhoNate PearsonNate PearsonNate PearsonEric PardinhoJordan GroshansDanny JansenDanny Jansen
5Kevin SmithEric PardinhoNate PearsonJordan GroshansEric PardinhoKevin SmithJordan Groshans--Kevin Smith--
6Jordan GroshansJordan GroshansKevin SmithSean Reid-FoleyJordan GroshansEric PardinhoNate Pearson--Eric Pardinho--
7Sean Reid-Foleykevin SmithJordan GroshansKevin SmithSean Reid-FoleyJordan GroshansKevin Smith--Sean Reid-Foley--
8Eric PardinhoAdam KloffensteinCavan BiggioAdam KloffensteinTJ ZeuchSean Reid-FoleySean Reid-Foley--Anthony Alford--
9Cavan BiggioSean Reid-FoleySean Reid-FoleyEric PardinhoKevin SmithAnthony AlfordCavan Biggio--Jordan Groshans--
10Adam KloffensteinCavan BiggioAnthony AlfordTrent ThorntonCavan BiggioCavan BiggioMiguel Hiraldo--TJ Zeuch--
11Hector PerezAnthony AlfordAdam KloffensteinBilly McKinneyAnthony AlfordHector Perez--------
12Anthony AlfordOrelvis MartinezOrelvis MartinezCavan BiggioAdam KloffensteinTJ Zeuch--------
13Rowdy TellezMiguel HiraldoMiguel HiraldoTJ ZeuchPatrick MurphyAdam Kloffenstein--------
14Thomas PannoneBilly McKinneyHector PerezHector PerezHector PerezOrelvis Martinez--------
15Orelvis MartinezTrent ThorntonTJ ZeuchLeonardo JimenezChavez YoungMiguel Hiraldo--------
16Billy McKinneyTJ ZeuchBilly McKinneyOrelvis MartinezThomas PannoneSantiago Espinal--------
17TJ ZeuchHector PerezDavid PaulinoRowdy TellezRowdy TellezBilly McKinney--------
18Chavez YoungLeonardo JimenezGriffin ConineGabriel MorenoYennsy DiazGriffin Conine--------
19Jordan RomanoGriffin ConineTrent ThorntonGriffin ConineGriffin ConineReese McGuire--------
20Patrick MurphyPatrick MurphyRowdy TellezMiguel HiraldoMiguel HiraldoTrent Thornton--------
21Travis Bergen Rowdy TellezRyan NodaChavez YoungHagen DannerThomas Pannone--------
22Reese McGuireGabriel MorenoForrest WallReese McGuireOrelvis MartinezElvis Luciano--------
23Riley AdamsChavez YoungElvis LucianoAnthony AlfordBilly McKinneyRyan Noda--------
24Samad TaylorReese McGuireReese McGuireYennsy DiazRyan NodaPatrick Murphy--------
25Griffin ConineSamad TaylorThomas PannoneSamad TaylorReese McGuireYennsy Diaz--------
26Hagen DannerRyan NodaSantiago EspinalPatrick MurphyElvis LucianoDavid Paulino--------
27Ryan NodaYennsy DiazChavez YoungAlejandro KirkTrent ThorntonLogan Warmoth--------
28Max PentecostElvis LucianoJonathan DavisKevin VicunaLogan WarmothLeonardo Jimenez--------
29Miguel HiraldoAlejandro KirkCal StevensonElvis LucianoForrest WallRonny Brito--------
30Logan WarmothCal StevensonChad SpanbergerEmanuel VizcainoLeonardo JimenezAndrew Sopko--------

To help merge the data I did a simple score system - 30 for 1st place vote, 29 for 2nd, all the way to 1 point for a 30th place rank. Here is that ranking along with position ...
Vladimir Guerrero3B10----------------------------------------------------------300
Bo BichetteSS--10--------------------------------------------------------290
Danny JansenCA----82----------------------------------------------------278
Nate PearsonRHP----2511------------------------------------------------242
Jordan GroshansSS------1232--1------------------------------------------224
Eric PardinhoRHP------222--11------------------------------------------201
Kevin SmithSS--------313--1------------------------------------------197
Sean Reid-FoleyRHP----------1322------------------------------------------187
Cavan Biggio2B--------------123--1------------------------------------149
Anthony AlfordOF--------------11121--------------------1--------------133
TJ ZeuchRHP--------------1--1--11--111--------------------------126
Adam KloffensteinRHP--------------2--1111----------------------------------124
Hector PerezRHP--------------------2----3----1--------------------------105
Miguel HiraldoSS------------------1----2--1--------2----------------1--97
Orelvis MartinezSS----------------------2--111----------1----------------95
Billy McKinneyOF--------------------1----1--21----------1--------------89
Griffin ConineOF----------------------------------23----------1----------68
Rowdy Tellez1B------------------------1------2----11------------------67
Trent ThorntonRHP------------------1--------1------11------------1------64
Patrick MurphyRHP------------------------1------------2------1--1--------52
Chavez YoungOF----------------------------1----1----1--1------1------51
Reese McGuireCA------------------------------------1----2--21----------50
Thomas PannoneLHP--------------------------1--1--------1------1----------48
Ryan Noda1B/OF----------------------------------------1--11--11------34
Leonardo Jimenez2B/SS----------------------------1----1------------------1--133
Yennsy DiazRHP----------------------------------1----------11--1------30
Elvis LucianoRHP------------------------------------------11----1--11--27
Gabriel MorenoCA----------------------------------1------1----------------22
Santiago EspinalSS/2B/3B------------------------------1------------------1--------20
David PaulinoRHP--------------------------------1----------------1--------19
Samad Taylor2B----------------------------------------------12----------19
Hagen DannerCA----------------------------------------1--------1--------15
Jordan RomanoRHP------------------------------------1----------------------12
Forrest WallOF------------------------------------------1------------1--11
Travis Bergen LHP----------------------------------------1------------------10
Logan WarmothSS----------------------------------------------------11--18
Riley AdamsCA--------------------------------------------1--------------8
Alejandro KirkCA----------------------------------------------------1--1--6
Cal StevensonOF--------------------------------------------------------113
Jonathan DavisOF------------------------------------------------------1----3
Kevin VicunaSS------------------------------------------------------1----3
Max PentecostCA------------------------------------------------------1----3
Ronny BritoSS--------------------------------------------------------1--2
Andrew SopkoRHP----------------------------------------------------------11
Chad Spanberger1B----------------------------------------------------------11
Emanuel VizcainoRHP----------------------------------------------------------11

Now with all that data I'm sure a few will be wondering - who was the most bizarre choice? Jordan Romano ranked 19th was the highest rank for a player not named on more than 1 list (Batter's Box). Trent Thornton was the only guy with a top 10 rank who failed to make the top 14 of anyone else's list (10th by FanGraphs). Rowdy Tellez was the highest ranked to be missed entirely by a top 30 list (skipped by TSN). Wide ranges, not factoring in being ignored, were led by Anthony Alford (as high as 8th, low as 23rd) and Miguel Hiraldo (from 10th to 29th).

In the end we see a strong consensus on the top part, and a mish mash towards the bottom as always would be expected. Last years list had the same top 3 on all lists - Vlad, Bo, and Anthony Alford. All 3 were on top 100 lists for everyone I had. Alford clearly dropped drastically while Vlad and Bo held on. Vlad was no higher than 3rd on any ML prospect list worst was a 15th rank, Bo was 7-9 on most, but 19th on one.

Here is a summary of the top 100 lists for this year.
WhoMLB.comBaseball AmericaSicklesBaseball ProspectusKeith Law
Vladimir Guerrero11112
Bo Bichette118131213
Danny Jansen65424689107
Nate Pearson7670--5477
Kevin Smith9891------
Eric Pardinho--84------
Jordan Groshans----74----

Nice to see 7 guys make someone's top 100 list this year, vs 5 last year (Vlad, Bo, Alford, Pearson, Jansen) and having Vlad move from roughly the 3rd best to the best prospect in the minors. Bo dropped a little, but not much. Jansen from an afterthought to most to being top 100 to all but Law. Should be interesting next year to see what happens with Bo who should still be a prospect while Vlad and Jansen both should be off these lists next year - hopefully after one of them wins rookie of the year in 2019.