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Now that the last of the major lists has come out here are 10 of them summarized (not necessarily the best 10, just 10 I found and felt were reasonable). From big ones like MLB, FanGraphs, Baseball America, etc. down to blogs like Jays Journal and some weird place called Batters Box. I figured merging the results would provide a good summary of who is solid and who is weak in the system and find some oddball prospects.

First the lists by group...
RankBatters BoxBaseball AmericaMLB Early ListMLB Pipeline John SickelsKeith LawBaseball ProspectusProspects 1500Jays JournalBluebird Banter
#1Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3BVladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B
#2Bo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SSBo Bichette | SS
#3Anthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OFAnthony Alford | OF
#4Danny Jansen | CNate Pearson | RHPLogan Warmoth | SSNate Pearson | RHPRyan Borucki | LHPNate Pearson | RHPNate Pearson | RHPSean Reid-Foley | RHPNate Pearson | RHPNate Pearson | RHP
#5Nate Pearson | RHPLourdes Gurriel Jr. | SSTJ Zeuch | RHPLogan Warmoth | SSNate Pearson | RHPLogan Warmoth | SSConner Greene | RHPNate Pearson | RHPLourdes Gurriel Jr. | SSDanny Jansen | C
#6Richard Urena | SSErick Pardihno | RHPSean Reid-Foley | RHPDanny Jansen | CDanny Jansen | CDanny Jansen | CLogan Warmoth | SSLogan Warmoth | SSLogan Warmoth | SSRyan Borucki | LHP
#7Ryan Borucki | LHPDanny Jansen | CNate Pearson | RHPErick Pardihno | RHPSean Reid-Foley | RHPRyan Borucki | LHPDanny Jansen | CLourdes Gurriel Jr. | SSDanny Jansen | CLogan Warmoth | SS
#8Sean Reid-Foley | RHPLogan Warmoth | SSMax Pentecost | CRyan Borucki | LHPLogan Warmoth | SSErick Pardihno | RHPSean Reid-Foley | RHPDanny Jansen | CTJ Zeuch | RHPTJ Zeuch | RHP
#9Logan Warmoth | SSRichard Urena | SSHagen Danner | CTJ Zeuch | RHPRiley Adams | CSean Reid-Foley | RHPRyan Borucki | LHPRichard Urena | SSSean Reid-Foley | RHPSean Reid-Foley | RHP
#10Riley Adams | CRyan Borucki | LHPRichard Urena | SSSean Reid-Foley | RHPTJ Zeuch | RHPTJ Zeuch | RHPTJ Zeuch | RHPTJ Zeuch | RHPRyan Borucki | LHPThomas Pannone | LHP
#11Edward Olivares | OFSean Reid-Foley | RHPRowdy Tellez | 1BRichard Urena | SSReese McGuire | CSamad Taylor | 2B--Rowdy Tellez | 1BRichard Urena | SSErick Pardihno | RHP
#12TJ Zeuch | RHPTJ Zeuch | RHPRyan Borucki | LHPMiguel Hiraldo | 3BSamad Taylor | 2BRichard Urena | SS--Ryan Borucki | LHPErick Pardihno | RHPRichard Urena | SS
#13Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | SSRyan Noda | 1BJustin Maese | RHPSamad Taylor | 2BCarlos Ramirez | RHPElieser Medrano | RHP--Max Pentecost | CRowdy Tellez | 1BJustin Maese | RHP
#14Conner Greene | RHPEdward Olivares | OFErick Pardihno | RHPReese McGuire | CRichard Urena | SSThomas Pannone | LHP--Conner Greene | RHPMax Pentecost | CRiley Adams | C
#15Max Pentecost | CReese McGuire | CRiley Adams | CRowdy Tellez | 1BThomas Pannone | LHPJustin Maese | RHP--Edward Olivares | OFHagen Danner | CReese McGuire | C
#16Rowdy Tellez | 1BConner Greene | RHPDanny Jansen | CRiley Adams | CRowdy Tellez | 1BMaximo Castillo | RHP--Justin Maese | RHPJustin Maese | RHPTaylor Guerrieri | RHP
#17Reese McGuire | CMiguel Hiraldo | 3BJonathan Davis | OFCarlos Ramirez | RHPMax Pentecost | CLuis de los Santos | SS--Taylor Guerrieri | RHPThomas Pannone | LHPRowdy Tellez | 1B
#18Justin Maese | RHPLeonardo Jimenez | 3BJordan Romano | RHPRyan Noda | 1BJosh Palacios | OFHagen Danner | C--Hagen Danner | CRiley Adams | CLourdes Gurriel Jr. | SS
#19Thomas Pannone | LHPCarlos Ramirez | RHPJon Harris | RHPKevin Smith | SSErick Pardihno | RHPJol Concepcion | RHP--Jon Harris | RHPTim Mayza | LHPZach Jackson | LHP
#20Hagen Danner | CRiley Adams | CThomas Pannone | LHPHagen Danner | CRyan Noda | 1BRiley Adams | C--Erick Pardihno | RHPJon Harris | RHPPatrick Murphy | RHP
#21Kevin Smith | SSRowdy Tellez | 1BReese McGuire | CMc Gregory Contreras | OF------Reese McGuire | CJordan Romano | RHPJordan Romano | RHP
#22Yeltsin Gudino | SSHarold Ramirez | OFZach Jackson | LHPLeonardo Jimenez | 3B------Riley Adams | CDwight Smith Jr | OFKevin Smith | SS
#23Erick Pardihno | RHPMax Pentecost | CFrancisco Rios | RHPKevin Vicuna | SS------Harold Ramirez | OFReese McGuire | CYennsy Diaz | RHP
#24Kevin Vicuna | SSMcGregory Contreras | CPatrick Murphy | RHPMaximo Castillo | RHP------Thomas Pannone | LHPAngel Perdomo | LHPRyan Gold | C
#25Zach Jackson | LHPKevin Vicuna | SSKevin Smith | SSJustin Maese | RHP------Kevin Smith | SSRoemon Fields | CFSamad Taylor | 2B
#26Jordan Romano | RHPKevin Smith | SSJosh Palacios | OFThomas Pannone | LHP------Ryan Noda | 1BKevin Smith | SSHagen Danner | C
#27Jon Harris | RHPJordan Romano | RHPYennsy Diaz | RHPJordan Romano | RHP------Angel Perdomo | LHPRyan Noda | 1BMax Pentecost | C
#28Angel Perdomo | LHPHagen Danner | CHarold Ramirez | OFJonathan Davis | OF------Kevin Vicuna | SSJosh Palacios | OFChavez Young | OF
#29Josh Palacios | OFJon Harris | RHPAngel Perdomo | LHPMax Pentecost | C------Josh Palacios | OFHarold Ramirez | OFDwight Smith Jr | OF
#30Patrick Murphy | RHPYennsy Diaz | RHPJuan Kelly | 1BJon Harris | RHP------Dwight Smith Jr | OFJonathan Davis | OFJackson McClelland | RHP

Now the summary by player, from how many lists they made, top 100 overall prospect lists rank, to an overall score based on 30 points for coming in #1 to 1 point for coming in 30th, to 0 points for not making the list. Note how in every last list Vlad was #1, Bo #2, and Alford #3 - I'd bet we've never seen such a strong consensus among so many different lists on the top 3 for the Jays.
Top 100 List
Name | PositionNetRankListsBABPFGKATOH
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 3B30011034315
Bo Bichette | SS29021081997
Anthony Alford | OF28031060583647
Nate Pearson | RHP2644109176
Logan Warmoth | SS246510
Danny Jansen | C2386107151
Sean Reid-Foley | RHP229710
Ryan Borucki | LHP225810
TJ Zeuch | RHP216910
Richard Urena | SS185109
Erick Pardihno | RHP159119
Riley Adams | C135129
Rowdy Tellez | 1B128138
Reese McGuire | C111148
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | SS107155
Thomas Pannone | LHP103168
Max Pentecost | C102178
Justin Maese | RHP101187
Hagen Danner | C94198
Conner Greene | RHP75204
Samad Taylor | 2B63214
Kevin Smith | SS53227
Edward Olivares | OF53223
Ryan Noda | 1B51245
Jordan Romano | RHP46256
Carlos Ramirez | RHP44263
Jon Harris | RHP42276
Miguel Hiraldo | 3B33282
Taylor Guerrieri | RHP29292
Zach Jackson | LHP27303
Josh Palacios | OF25315
Kevin Vicuna | SS24324
Harold Ramirez | OF22334
Maximo Castillo | RHP22332
Leonardo Jimenez | 3B22332
Patrick Murphy | RHP19363
Jonathan Davis | OF18373
Elieser Medrano | RHP18371
Angel Perdomo | LHP16394
Luis de los Santos | SS14401
Yennsy Diaz | RHP13413
Dwight Smith Jr | OF12423
Jol Concepcion | RHP12421
Tim Mayza | LHP12421
Mc Gregory Contreras | OF10451
Yeltsin Gudino | SS9461
Francisco Rios | RHP8471
Ryan Gold | C7481
McGregory Contreras | C7481
Roemon Fields | CF6501
Chavez Young | OF3511
Jackson McClelland | RHP1521
Juan Kelly | 1B1521


In the end there are 13 players named only once. Listed by who listed them and in brackets at what ranking. I think poorly of a list that has too many at high rankings that no one else saw fit to list, and if a batch of players are ranked only once then that would be a poor reflection on the Jays as it would mean they don't have clear top prospects but instead a mish mash. Luckily non had unique players in the top 12.
  • Keith Law has Elieser Medrano (13), Luis de los Santos (17), Jol Concepcion (19)
  • Jays Journal has Tim Mayza (19), Roemon Fields (25),
  • MLB newest has Mc Gregory Contreras (21)
  • Batters Box has Yeltsin Gudino (22)
  • MLB early has Francisco Rios (23), Juan Kelly (30)
  • Bluebird Banter has Ryan Gold (24), Chavez Young (28), Jackson McClelland (30)
  • Baseball America has McGregory Contreras (24)
Another measure of list quality is who is missed the least often. If you don't have Vlad & Bo then you clearly don't have a clue.
  • On all 10 lists (9 players) - IE: we know these guys: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Anthony Alford, Nate Pearson, Logan Warmoth, Danny Jansen, Sean Reid-Foley, TJ Zeuch, Ryan Borucki
  • On 9 lists (3 players) - IE: One site had a brain fart: Richard Urena (Baseball Prospectus), Riley Adams (Baseball Prospectus), Erick Pardihno (Baseball Prospectus) - note: BP only had a top 10 so they had to miss at least two of these 3.
  • On 8 lists (6 players) - should be missed by lists with just 10 or 20: Erick Pardihno, Rowdy Tellez, Reese McGuire, Thomas Pannone, Max Pentecost, Hagen Danner; 3 by Keith Law (top 20), all by BP (top 10), Sickles skipped Danner (listed as one of his unranked 'notables'), Baseball America missed Pannone.

So a few prospects have been traded this winter - Conner Greene (4 lists - 5th by BP, out of top 10 in other 3), Jared Carkuff (no lists), Edward Olivares (3 lists, peak of #11), J.B. Woodman (no lists). Only Conner Greene was ranked high by any lists and then only by one so I don't see this as a major factor in any respect. FYI: Greene was part of the deal to get Randal Grichuk who is probably going to be the nearly everyday LF this year.
Top 10 and 30 Lists Summary | 196 comments | Create New Account
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Glevin - Saturday, March 10 2018 @ 04:46 PM EST (#354560) #
Good stuff but Fangraphs hasn't done their list yet.
John Northey - Saturday, March 10 2018 @ 04:48 PM EST (#354561) #
Dang, didn't notice I was missing FanGraphs.
uglyone - Saturday, March 10 2018 @ 04:58 PM EST (#354563) #
Awesome work John.

The consensus rank seems to me to be.....pretty much perfect.

I'd only quibble that:

Overrated: Warmoth, SRF
Underrated: McGuire, Maese

But man, other than that, the consensus rank looks pretty much perfect to me.
John Northey - Saturday, March 10 2018 @ 08:15 PM EST (#354566) #
When FanGraphs comes out with their list I'll add them in.
lexomatic - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#354572) #
I'll be more likely to agree to your over/under list, ugly, sur another season. I'm already a fan of McGuire, but it makes sense he'd be low with his first display of offense and an injury. SRF, for the reverse reasons still gets credit for doing well. Nor adjusting and having another bad season would be a disappointment, McGuire just has to stay healthy maintain defense and show better offense than all but 2017.
Warmoth is too early.

bpoz - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#354573) #
Jays have signed 18 year ols C Jesus Hernandez from Venezula. 6' 175 lb.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#354574) #
Interestingly, Batter's Box is the lowest of all the sites on Pardinho (#23). By way of comparison, BA has him at #6, MLB Pipeline at #7, Law at #8, and Sickels at #19. Pardinho is very promising but he does have a long road to the majors.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#354575) #
The one player that sticks out to me as a red-thumb over rank is Richard Urena. He had an up and down period in his second run through at Dunedin, in 2016 where he finished wth a .350 OBP. Other than that partial season, he has been unable to get on base at anytime since leaving the Appalachian League in 2014. To me, he is the textbook example of how the upper minors serve to filter out non-MLB players. Do others believe he deserves this high a ranking as a prospect at this point?

Here is his OBP after leaving the Appy League in 2014.

2014 VAN .297
2015 LAN .289
2015 DUN . 268
2016 DUN ..351
2016 NH . 286
2017 NH .286
2017 TOR .270

Except for the partial season second time through Dunedin, that looks like a pretty straight slightly downward line from Vancouver to the majors. Is that blip the basis for his ranking?
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#354577) #
Zeke Carrera released.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#354579) #
Lexo - re: mcguire
Dean - re: urena


2 prospects I think of similarly, with Urena being ranked appropriately on the consensus rankings and McGuire imo a little low.

Both guys who have been young for their levels at every step of the way (except last year for McGuire), both who play legit defense at premium defensive positions, and both who have put up solid offensive numbers despite being young and being D-first prospects.


Career MILB

Urena (17-21): 2234pa, 5.7b%/17.8k%, .327bip/.277avg, .126iso, 106wrc+
McGuire (18-22): 1593pa, 7.7b%/9.9k%, .294bip/.270avg, .075iso, 95wrc+


Overall Urena still looks like a legit good prospect to me, especially since he's always been young for his levels, but he's way riskier - the bb/k numbers are not promising and his defense at SS gets mixed reviews. His ranking here seems pretty appropriate to me.

McGuire for me is being ranked too low basically just due to prospect fatigue. This is a guy who was ranked in the top-100 based on his glove even when he wasn't hitting - now that he showed some legit pop the first time he played at an age appropriate level last year, and it was a high level in AA, I don't really understand why he is being ranked this low. His glove still gets universal plus reviews, his bb/k rates are and always have been phenomenal, and his one weakness coming up while he was too young for his levels was a complete lack of power - and that power finally showed up last year. And it showed up in mlb-adjacent AA, in his first year he was age appropriate for his level. I have no real idea how guys like Warmoth or SRF are ranked ahead of him, either by pedigree or performance.

I mean, McGuire is 6 months older than Warmoth, was a higher draft pick, profiles as more valuable defensively, and smashed AA better than Warmoth hit in short season ball.

scottt - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#354581) #
All the articles have read point out that Pardinho is already a refined pitcher with a perfect Japanese delivery, you know that kinetic chain stuff. 
The velocity is already there. His stuff is already good. The biggest obstacle seems to be his small frame and the injury risk.
He's going to play short ball this year, but if the results are there, is he held down just to slowly increase his stamina?

Glevin - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#354582) #
Don't get why people don't like Warmoth. He was a top rated prospect and looked fine in his brief stint in the minors. Sure, he was a bit old for his level, but all he could do was hit and he did. He'll be tested more this year obviously and I think he's someone the Jays could push pretty quickly. I get why people don't like Maese though. Prospects with pretty good stuff and who struggle at A ball are not that exciting. If he rebounds, stays healthy, and gets results, he'll go back on/move up prospect lists in no time. I like Borucki a lot more than SRF and would have him higher for sure.

Urena has to have a good year to stay on the prospect list at all IMO. Another year like the last 2 and it's hard to see him ever being a major leaguer. He's still young but at some point, you have to be able to hit a little bit especially when your defense isn't great. With both McGuire and Jansen, I think scouts want to see more because the numbers are so much better than they were before. A deeper system means a lot of prospects to follow this year which is another fun part of fandom.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#354583) #
The last 2? Urena hit A+ very well as a 20yr old in 2016. He has definitely struggled with the bat as a 20-21yr old in AA, though.

As for Warmoth, for me, he's an older, questionable D, low ceiling prospect who just didn't hit very well in his debut, with babip the only thing making his line look decent.
greenfrog - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#354584) #
BB% was a bit low for Warmoth in 2017. Hopefully his walk rate will improve in 2018.

Really happy to hear that the organization (and Bo himself) expects Bichette to stick at SS. If Guerrero and Bichette can play a competent 3B and SS, the team should be in good shape in terms of position players, especially with the other up-the-middle prospects in the system showing promise.
Glevin - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#354589) #
"The last 2? Urena hit A+ very well as a 20yr old in 2016."

Should have said last 2 in AA. He was great in A ball 2 years ago.

"As for Warmoth, for me, he's an older, questionable D, low ceiling prospect who just didn't hit very well in his debut, with babip the only thing making his line look decent."

Haven't seen people question Warmoth's D. General consensus is he will stick at SS and has good tools. He had a 121 WRC+ in his debut. How is that not hitting well? Also, very often in lower minors very good numbers are driven by high BABIPs because they are just smashing the ball all the time because they are better than the competition. It's normal for good prospects in the lower minors not a sign that a regression is coming. Plenty of top prospects have BABIPs
finch - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#354590) #
Glevin,

I watched about 4 games last year in Vancouver. I'm not that high on Warmoth either. Just doesn't pass the "eye" test. He was age appropriate for that level and I would have liked to see more gap power. I witnessed 3 of his doubles and they were down the line. If he doesn't walk much and doesn't have gap power, what's his MLB comparable? Unsure but it's not a bat that helps you compete in the AL East. Hopefully he shows improvements in those areas.

Defensively, he was just okay. There were some plays that stood out in my mind; all the same sort of plays. I think he had trouble reading the play and didn't know whether to sit back on the ball or charge the ball. He sat back on all of them and the runners beat them out for a hit. The arm, I would say, is quite average at best. I see him more of a 2B option if he reaches the majors.

Samad Taylor though...he's my sleeper. The bat to ball sound he generates off the bat is rare. And he plays the game hard. Ceiling comp, IMO, is Jose Reyes with a little less pop. And he has wheels to burn!
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#354591) #
Urena (17-21): 2234pa, 5.7b%/17.8k%, .327bip/.277avg, .126iso, 106wrc+

Overall Urena still looks like a legit good prospect to me, especially since he's always been young for his levels, but he's way riskier - the bb/k numbers are not promising and his defense at SS gets mixed reviews. His ranking here seems pretty appropriate to me.


This has been pointed out before, either by SK or Glevin, or both. Equating numbers from 5 years ago or 4 years ago in complex ball and the Appy with recent minor league numbers in the higher majors is not useful at all. I didn't write that Urena did poorly 5 years ago in the Gulf league or in the Appy league. He did fine, but that isn't particularly relevant when he doesn't get on base for the next 4 or 5 years above that level. As has been pointed out, minor league performance in the last 4 years as the player tries to process through the minors is much more telling than what a player did playing in the Gulf complexes or Bluefield years ago, and in that regard I set out Urena's poor numbers throughout. The reason his k/bb numbers from Lansing on are so poor is that he is overmatched, and while age might be an explanation for a short time, it's not an explanation for a minor league career. I'd be happy to be wrong about him but I see no reason to rank him highly at all. If Urena can perform at even an adequate level at AA or above this year, I'd be happy to reassess but I see no reason to expect that from what he's shown.

In respect of Logan Warmoth, I don't expect Warmoth to be the draft pick that Tulowitzki could have been in 2005, or Trea Turner in 2014, but I don't get the knock on him. He was ranked 7th by Law on his draft board, and highly by everyone else, and acquitted himself well in VAN. He's from a highly ranked program, certainly better than Kenesaw. He's not going to have the career that Tulowitzki had or that Trea Turner will probably have, but those ships sailed. I trust the team that's in charge of the draft. They seem to know what they're doing and before dissing Warmoth I'd at least be sure to wait until he does something worthy of being dissed.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#354592) #
This has been pointed out before, either by SK or Glevin, or both. Equating numbers from 5 years ago or 4 years ago in complex ball and the Appy with recent minor league numbers in the higher majors is not useful at all.

I started writing this before Glevin's post above was up, obviously he is one now who has posted this out. I agree with what he wrote, and about Warmoth as well.

As for the claim that Urena had a great 20 year old season in Dunedin, he had a .292 OBP on June 5, which is consistent with everything he has done above short season ball. He then had a good stretch from June 6 to July 31 to pull his OBP up. That's his one brief stint since Bluefield where he has been at all able to get on base and I asked above whether that's why he is highly ranked, implying that it's not a lot of support for a ranking.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#354594) #
Can we save the boring and meaningless stats argument? you guys know that you no matter which stats I use, you will say they are meaningless and biased. Because of course I am too dumb and biased to understand the limits of these stats.

if you want recent, we can look at the last 2yrs. (of course you will object to these to instead of just making an argument).


McGuire (22, AA): 136pa, 11.8b%/14.0k%, .283bip/.278avg, .217iso, 134wrc+
McGuire (21, AA): 365pa, 9.9b%/9.3k%, .279bip/.253avg, .078iso, 90wrc+
Urena (21, AA): 551pa, 5.4b%/18.1k%, .294bip/.247avg, .112iso, 73wrc+
Urena (20, AA): 132pa, 3.0b%/14.4k%, .306bip/.266avg, .129iso, 81wrc+
Urena (20, A+): 431pa, 5.8b%/14.8k%, .346bip/.305avg, .142iso, 132wrc+
Warmoth (21, A-): 174pa, 4.0b%/19.0k%, .378bip/.306avg, .113iso, 121wrc+


That's their last 2 seasons of useful samples.

I'd say that Warmoth quite easily has the shown the least promising line of the 3 in these RECENT years. In fact, given that they were 3 levels apart last year at age 21, I would say that even Urena's "bad" year in AA was every bit as impressive as Warmoth's "good" year in A-, looking at their bb/K, babip, and iso.

Add in that Warmoth arguably shows the least promise defensively as well, and that he's the only one of the 3 that hasn't made a top-100 list, and isn't even the highest drafted of the bunch, then yeah I see a whole lotta benefit of the doubt boosting that warmoth ranking.

prospect rankings can change on a dime, of course, and hopefully Warmoth shows a lot more than he did in his debut, and quick, but right now I don't think Warmoth's underwhelming draft profile - or even his actual 22nd draft position - on it's own justifies his current rank in the system. I mean Zeuch was drafted higher than warmoth and has put up a much more promising line already.

Urena seems a fair rank to me.

McGuire's low rank doesn't make much sense to me at all, though.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#354597) #
And a couple of loose ends:

- it's true that high babip isn't a disqualifier in itself, but it's not dependable, either. for example, urena showed a similar babip/avg combo in short season ball as warmoth did, and it didn't travel up into full season with him. in addition, the gap between his babip and avg is a concern - he needed near .400 babi0 just to get his average over .300. and the rest of his numbers were plain bad - no walks, no power, and too many whiffs.

- mcguire, otoh, seems to be a clearcut over both those SS. everything in his line even before last year was good to excellent, except for one single thing - power. and power showed up in a big way last year. if that power is just a blip, then imo he still profiles well as a solid glove first catcher....but if any of that power is real, then his line really starts to look like quality starter upside.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#354598) #
hey finch, you think Taylor has reyes upside defensively and on the basepaths? that would be amazing. because his bat shows real promise on paper.

and Dean, re-reading your last post you seem to be framing this Warmoth thing as you having faith in the FO and me not. please stop. I have been higher than most from the very start on picks like Zeuch and Pearson. The FO has nothing to do with my opinion on Warmoth.
finch - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#354599) #
uglyone,

Hard to say defensively...different positions. He's got good range and an average arm. On the bases...yes...dude can gallop. I think he's fast than Reggie Pruitt, who is VERY fast.
Parker - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#354606) #
Can we save the boring and meaningless stats argument? you guys know that you no matter which stats I use, you will say they are meaningless and biased. Because of course I am too dumb and biased to understand the limits of these stats.

Aw c'mon ugly, we love your meaningless and biased stats. ;)

Seriously, though, don't sell yourself short. You obviously put a tremendous amount of work into your posts, and I admire the effort even when I disagree with the point you're making. There is definitely no need to nail yourself to the cross. Keep doing what you're doing, man.
Mike D - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#354608) #
John Sickels has not yet posted his top 100, but he suggests in his Jays article that he will have Vlad Jr. at #2 and Bo at #5.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#354610) #
I think what people forget about Urena is that he has never hit lefties well, and at best profiles as a platoon utility piece.

I find it a little fascinating that some outlets are putting Gurriel higher than Warmoth. There is no way Gurriel is 1st round MLB talent and they seems to be giving him more of a pass on his first rip through the circuit.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#354612) #
I suffer for your sins, parkie.
Parker - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#354613) #
I suffer for your sins, parkie.

You're better than that, ugly.

You know you are. :)
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#354614) #
I find it a little fascinating that some outlets are putting Gurriel higher than Warmoth. There is no way Gurriel is 1st round MLB talent and they seems to be giving him more of a pass on his first rip through the circuit.

I mentioned elsewhere that I think he deserves such a pass. He had a long layoff, along with switching countries.

At 21, Lourdes slashed .344/.407/.560 for Industriales. That's about the equivalent of high A, at least apparently according to Dave Cameron. The year prior, he slashed .308/.388/.466. Indusrtriales is a frequent CNS championship club, and I think assignment to that club itself is a note of regard.
Shoeless Joe - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 08:11 PM EDT (#354615) #
That all seems very approximate with Gurriel, and I think the Cuban league is hard to gauge year in year out with the talent exodus.

I wasn't very impressed with his defence thus far in spring training either. I think he projects more of a Freddy Galvis super utility back-up, second division starter in the infield.
Nigel - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#354616) #
On Warmoth, I'll echo a bit of what Finch said. I saw about 10 C's games this year. Warmoth did not play in all of them as he joined part way through the season.

The thing about Warmoth is that contact skill seems to be his only above average skill (maybe base running too). He has Catalanotto's disease - he can get his bat to just about anything. His offense looks to be BA heavy with little patience or power. I'm not sure the power will develop as he's pretty tiny. His listed height and weight are pretty inflated. On defence, I think he will struggle to be an average defender at SS. He has good hands and an accurate arm but little arm strength and "meh" range. After watching Vicuna (a plus defender) at SS, the difference was very obvious. He's really Russ Adams with better hands but without the above average strike zone control. That makes him a good prospect but I think 5 is pretty high. He looks like at 2B to me. If he can develop some ISO or ISP in his offense then he becomes much more interesting.

The C's had three interesting position prospects this year - Warmoth, Adams and Taylor. Warmoth has the highest floor by quite a bit but I like the other two's upside much more. It depends on how you value upside versus floor. I think they are all roughly equal prospects. Warmth is the most likely to make the majors (as a utility player in my view) but I think Taylor actually has the best shot of being a major league regular. Adams is a surprisingly athletic C for his size and had a pretty big toolbox but the K's are obviously a huge issue.
uglyone - Sunday, March 11 2018 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#354617) #
iirc Gurriel's cuban league equivalencies weren't so great.
85bluejay - Monday, March 12 2018 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#354619) #
I hope the Jays give spring starts to Guerrieri & McGuire as competition for Biagini as the 5th starter alternate in case Stroman has to miss some time.Seems like Seung Hwan Oh is still in visa limbo - would like to see him pitching soon. Hope the jays are working on some trades to open up 40 man roster spots.
Mike Green - Monday, March 12 2018 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#354620) #
CBDC, I think that the Cuban league is not what it once was.  I looked at the statistics for Yulieski and Lourdes when they both played for Industriales, and it seemed to me that Yulieski was pretty obviously a much better hitter at that point. Yulieski's statistics were a lot better than any comparable 4A player here.

There was a lot of projection involved with Lourdes, and with him missing a year of development, it seemed to me all along that he was going to have an uphill battle as a hitter.  I knew nothing about him from a scouting perspective, but it did seem that many major league clubs were high on him from that lens. And if you want to see what he can do defensively, there's this.  I can see a super-utility role for him if his bat develops.  Personally, I'd rather have Samad Taylor, but that's just me. 

uglyone - Monday, March 12 2018 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#354621) #
I think I found Davenport's 2018 projections for Lourdes, but they are a mess in my browser. http://claydavenport.com/projections/hitter_projections.txt

I think it says this:

.211avg .254obp .332slg
GabrielSyme - Monday, March 12 2018 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#354622) #
I think the case for Lourdes is that he makes a decent amount of contact and should have about average power. The uncertainties lie primarily with his BABIP and whether he'll draw any walks (pretty much the same uncertainties as Warmoth has). It depends how strong defensively you think he can be, but his contact ability and (moderate) power are a pretty strong foundation.
Gerry - Monday, March 12 2018 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#354623) #
The case for Lourdes is that his 2017 numbers should not be used as a basis to measure his expected 2018 performance. Did his missing a year, getting used to a new country, and his April injury impact his 2017? Some of those probably did but by how much?

I don't know the answer but I would expect him to do better than 2017 stats based projections for the above reasons.
Glevin - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 03:43 AM EDT (#354631) #
The opening day roster looks pretty close to set IMO:
C-Martin, Maille
1B-Smoak
2B-Travis
SS-Diaz, Ngoepe
3B-Donaldson
IF-Solarte
DH-Morales
OF-Grichuk, Pillar, Granderson, Pearce
SP-Stroman, Sanchez, Happ, Estrada, Garcia
RP-Osuna, Barnes, Loup, Tepera, Oh, Axford, Clippard

Only changes I can see is maybe they go with another OFer instead of Ngoepe but I don't think it's likely with wanting to give Travis some off days. Also, Stroman might start on DL which would mean Biagini would make a start if he had to. If one of the relievers falls apart, another one could make the team but I think this is the most likely group. It's a pretty good team and one of the things we have this year that we haven't in a while is talent lurking close to the majors. Hernandez, Alford, Jansen, McGuire, and a bunch of interesting pitchers should all contribute to the major league team this year. Is it opening day yet?
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#354632) #
Yep.  It'll probably be something like that- perhaps a different 7th reliever but that is not important.

It is a lineup that is not designed to win.  It is all about preserving options and hoping for "big" bounce-backs.  The club would have been better to trade Donaldson in the off-season rather than take the half-hearted approach.  Every time I see Donaldson and Morales as the poster boys for the club in the subway, I feel slightly queasy. 
ayjackson - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#354633) #
A lineup designed to play meaningful baseball in September, but not October.
Gerry - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#354634) #
The Jays have to find 3 40 man roster spots in that scenario. Other than 60 day injury places, Dwight Smith, Dalton Pompey and Matt Dermody will be on the bubble.
85bluejay - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#354635) #
While I agree with your assessment MG, as someone who strongly advocated trading Donaldson, I've changed my view - Teams were not giving up a lot of talent for 1 year of an expensive Donaldson (a younger,cheaper Machado didn't attract a huge haul) & keeping Donaldson allows the Jays to sell tickets while maybe competing for a WC if the breaks go their way & trading Donaldson in July may net them about the same talent if not more because a team acquiring Donaldson in July will know they are in a pennant race (as opposed to hoping in the off season),will be paying about $10m as opposed to $23m and will have a better idea of which young talent they can part with. I suspect if the Jays sell in July that pitching talent - Estrada,Happ,BP guys will bring more in return than Donaldson versus fan expectations.

The Jays may put both Tulo & Ramirez on the 60 day DL - opening up 2 spots.
Would not be surprised if Diaz takes the SS job and make it his - with 3 expensive years & a full NC left on his contract, I see Tulo's time with the Jays coming to an ugly end - whether it's Diaz this year, Bo next year or someone else - Colorado FO must be really happy.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#354636) #
personally I'd hope that if we're adding RP to the 40 man who we picked up for nothing just before training camp, that the guys we cut off the 40 man will be the RP that they beat out for those jobs.
85bluejay - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#354637) #
I may be wrong but only Axford & Clippard are not on the 40 man roster, so only 2 spots needed. Am I missing someone?
- Oh is listed on the 40 man roster.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#354638) #
The Jays could also consider 40-man roster reductions such as removing Gurriel... Given he's still owed $18+ million it would significantly reduce the number of teams willing to bite on him (maybe the Dodgers would, or the Astros). And I might be in the minority but I think Dwight Smith Jr. has more value to the Jays than Rowdy Tellez does, but I think they'd both get snapped up on waivers, which is why the decision to add Rowdy in the winter didn't make much sense given the number crunch on the 40-man roster at that time (and now). But then I also think Jonathan Davis has more value than Smith Jr. and the outfield depth is pretty deep.

My vote would be to dump: Dermody, Pompey and Ngoepe (dude can't hit and I doubt anyone claims him). I would also consider Guerrieri over Dermody or Pompey, as I think people are overrating how good he is based on previous prospect rankings. Those were based on his early days when he had much better stuff/velo. The Jays have lots of non-roster arms that could be as valuable as him, such as Justin Shafer, Deck McGuire, Zach Jackson, Jackson McClelland, Andrew Case, Jordan Romano, etc....
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#354639) #
Errata:

Pitch framing measures now added to BBRef.
The comment about Donaldson's trade value had me wondering about the Stanton trade- I did not know that the Marlins agreed to pay the Yankees $30 million if Stanton does not opt out following 2020.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#354640) #
"Colorado FO must be really happy"

they're too busy still paying Jose Reyes.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#354641) #
they're too busy still paying Jose Reyes.

$4 million this year and that's it.  The Blue Jay FO was pointing to the contracts of Tulo (and Martin!) in explaining why long-term contracts with mid-career stars are so risky. Cue the Money Playlist with Pink Floyd, the Beatles (X2), Patti Smith, Talking Heads, The O'Jays, Rick James, Hall and Oates and Notorious BIG. 
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#354642) #
yep, at this point we could have still been paying Reyes too, but without the back to back ALCS fun.
85bluejay - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#354643) #
Jose Reyes future money owed by Rockies - $4m
Troy Tulowitzki future money owed by Jays - $58m

uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#354644) #
LCS

TOR: 2
COL: 0

LDS

TOR: 2
COL: 0
Nigel - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#354645) #
It's a line-up that is likely to do exactly what is was designed to do - win 78-84 games - although I think it more likely to be on the lower end of that scale. In baseball, over the long run, you generally get a payoff equal to the resources you put into it. It is a team that will have a few individual players that are extremely fun to watch but its one of the less interesting opening day squads that I can think of and I've seen every one of them:)
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#354646) #
Jon Morosi @jonmorosi
21s
#BlueJays OF Anthony Alford, a standout this spring, has an injured hamstring and will be examined today, manager John Gibbons said. He was scratched from today's playing roster vs. #Braves. @MLB @MLBNetwork
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#354647) #
For what it's worth, the club would be a lot more interesting with Morales gone and a youngish OFer (Alford or Hernandez) in the lineup.  The projection would about 1 game better in my view, but the key is that it would be a sign that the club was attaching some significant weight to winning now. 
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#354648) #
Just slot EE in for Morales and that lineup would look pretty sweet imo.
Nigel - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#354649) #
I just don't see that uglyone. I see two players who are likely to be better than average hitters for their position (Martin and Donaldson). Travis would fit in that group too if he can stay healthy. If you believe in Smoak's first half versus 2nd then Smoak could be in that group as well. I see a line-up that is going to struggle to score runs.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#354650) #
Well, as of now, I see it essentially as a lineup of one elite hitter, surrounded by 7 slots of league average hitting, and one below average slot (Pillar), and that includes injury replacements. I have some hope that Smoak can be more than just an averagish hitter again, but I'm not sold on that. So as is, I see an above average lineup. Add another legit bopper like EE, though, and it turns them into a well above average lineup, imo.

2yr stats see our lineup like this right now:

wRC+

153
118
110
104
103
100
98
95
83

116
111
105
29


Projections see it like this:

141
116
107
105
102
102
100
97
89

108
104
91
71


So it looks pretty solid and better than a lot of teams have as is.

swap out one of those league average bats there, though, and replace it with EE's 134 (2yr) or 127 (proj), and suddenly it looks like a batting order than slug it out with all but a select handful of other lineups around baseball.
Chuck - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#354651) #
In baseball, over the long run, you generally get a payoff equal to the resources you put into it.

"And in the end, you love you take is equal to the love you make."
-- Paul McCartney, Abbey Road

85bluejay - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#354652) #
I see Alex Anthopoulos did a podcast with MLB.com's Mark Feinsand and talked about his time in Toronto - As a big supporter of early AA, I was happy that he acknowledged what I've said all along, that he moved too soon doing the big Miami & New York trades - that 2012 team showed no signs of contending and he tried to force the issue.I have no problems trading prospects and/or spending money at the appropriate time & for better players - those 2012 acquisitions were older,expensive players on the wrong side of the age curve - that money and prospect capital could have been much better spent, maybe a year later but I think the whole John Farrell fiasco just spooked him.
85bluejay - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 01:05 PM EDT (#354653) #
I like this team better than the past couple of years actually and if you had Granderson/Hernandez in LF and a rotating DH (with Pearce), I'd like it even more - I really like the Depth both at the ML level & AAA - 5 competent starters who can probably give 150 plus innings each - that Tulo may miss extended time I don't see as a negative - and if things go south, then seeing the likes of Alford/Hernandez/Pompey/Borucki/Pannone in the 2nd half of the season isn't a bad consolation prize - I think this team has a good chance of keeping me interested the entire season.
whiterasta80 - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#354654) #
Don't forget the non-zero possibility that Guerrero and/or Bichette force the issue.

I'm as excited for this team as I have been in quite some time. Wait, let me check my March post history for the past few years...
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#354655) #
https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-notebook-dalton-pompey-rest-injured-wrist/

At first, Dalton Pompey expected his right wrist soreness to clear up without any delay.

After injuring his wrist on a slide in Lakeland on March 7, he played in two more games and was slated to start another, but when he still wasnít at full strength four days later he informed Blue Jays decision-makers and took Sunday off to rest.

"My grip strength was decreasing and my hand was coming off the bat when I swung, so I thought I should get it checked out," Pompey said.

After meeting with doctors for a CT scan Monday morning, Pompey resolved to rest his wrist for now. If it doesnít respond within a couple of days, the next step would be a cortisone shot.

The switch-hitting 25-year-old projects to open the season as a starting outfielder for triple-A Buffalo after a difficult 2017 season in which he was limited to just 13 total games due to concussion and knee issues.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#354656) #
One thing to add re: the offense - we could choose to upgrade the offense internally by replacing Pillar with Pearce, and moving Grichuk to CF. It would be a hit to our defense, but also a clear upgrade to the offense, removing any weak link whatsoever.

But tbh I'm pretty dang excited to see a team that can legitimately play some D at every position this year, for the first time in a while. I expect the corner OF defense in particular will be a huge improvement for the team overall.
bpoz - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#354657) #
Nigel I have no issue with your 78-84 forecast. Was your forecast more optimistic last year? I also went with your view of a poorer offense. I like your posts as they are food for thought.

The 2017 Bautista was not as good as 2016. Morales less than EE. For 2018 I Grichuck will not walk as much as Bautista. The major injuries to Martin, Travis and Tulo in hurt. But this year we have better replacements. Smoak may not be as good. So the offense could struggle.

I think if the ownership is ok with a slightly better than .500 record all the time as a policy or goal then then IMO they should be able to achieve that with a much lower payroll. Aprox $130 mil.

But then those pennant races are lucrative.


bpoz - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 02:18 PM EDT (#354658) #
Good D will be very nice to have. Good catcher D helps the pitching staff a lot. Y Molina and B Posey provide that plus O.

Biagini and Liriano both made 18 starts last year and both were about equally bad IMO. Hopefully we get better results this year. Estrada in 2017? Hopefully better in 2018.
Nigel - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#354659) #
I like this team better than last year's team in that there is a good probability that the team will field at least two, and sometimes three, actual ML outfielders on any given day this year which will be an improvement.

Bpoz - I think of this year's team as being very much like last year's team. This management team has elected to essentially stand pat (in that they have neither invested in, nor divested, key assets) the last two offseasons. I would have projected last year's team as a 78-84 win team as well, although I think I would have pegged the most likely outcome at the upper end of that range. The team, last year and this, will accomplish management's goals, sell tickets and keep viewership up throughout much of the year without having to really invest in the team. They've actually cut the payroll by quite a bit after inflation and exchange rate adjustments. It's an entirely supportable approach from a revenue generating approach. I don't think its been the best approach from a baseball perspective but Rogers gets to run the team exactly how it wants and I have no issue with that.
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#354660) #
Thing is, even if you are skeptical on the team's ability to be healthier this year, last year was still mostly a disaster year.

I really don't think this year we'll be throwing away ~2000pa on below replacement players like we did last year, or anything remotely close to that, really.

And just one key healthy improvement from young Sanchez should make a drastic improvement to our rotation, even if Estrada is just as bad as he was last year, and even if Garcia is no better than Liriano/Biagini were.

uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#354661) #
AA signs Zeke.
China fan - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#354662) #
"....even if Estrada is just as bad as he was last year..."

Estrada was good last year.

His fWAR was 2.6, which was only slightly lower than it was in 2016.

He had one bad stretch in the middle of the season for several games. Otherwise he was a good as usual. (Unless you are trying to measure him by ERA or xFIP, which aren't the proper metrics for a pitcher like Estrada.)
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#354663) #
You may have that in reverse.

In previous years it was always said that we should ignore Estrada's Fip/xFip and look only at his ERA. Last year his ERA stopped beating his FIPs for the first time as a Jay.


notes on today's game:

1.Hernandez keeps making Morales' spot on the team even more annoying than it already is.

2.Breslow probably won't be a help this year

China fan - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#354664) #
Craig Breslow, with another bad outing today, is rapidly playing himself out of the bullpen competition.

There is speculation that the Jays might be able to persuade Albuerquerque and Santos to accept assignments to Buffalo, perhaps with the assurance that they will be the first to be called up as soon as there's a need.

That would give the final two bullpen positions to Axford and Clippard.

Gibbons apparently said today that the Jays are almost certain to begin the season with a 7-man pen, because they want infield depth on the roster. That means Ngoepe on the opening-day roster.

I'm a little concerned about Oh, who still hasn't received his US work visa. If he doesn't get game action soon, I'm not sure how he can be ready for the season. Side sessions and sim games aren't really a proper substitute for game situations. But unfortunately there's no DL for players who are the unfair victims of bureaucracy....
China fan - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#354665) #
Nice to see Luke Maile with a couple of hits today, including a home run. His spring average, for what it's worth, is up to .333. There may be something to the theory that he's not nearly as bad of a hitter as his numbers last year suggested. That would be a nice turn of events for the Jays, since Maile is likely to get into 40 or 50 games for the Jays this year.

If his apparent spring improvement is just a mirage, Jansen could be ready for the majors by mid-season.
85bluejay - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#354666) #
The appeal of Gift Ngoepe for the Jays is that he can handle himself defensively & has options, so when they need a backup infielder for a short while, the jays don't have to call up Urena who needs to play everyday in AA - but, if Tulo is going to miss significant time, I hope the Jays find a better backup (I don't like Solarte at SS with so many GB pitchers) - Jurickson Profar is having a meh spring camp (No options left) and I really thing he and Texas need to part company - I think the Jays should make an offer if Tulo is going to miss significant time - maybe Smith & Dermody for Profar .
SK in NJ - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#354667) #
I hope Hernandez continues to have a great spring. Unlike the other prospects (Alford, etc), he's likely as ready as he is going to be. Young talent forcing the team's hand is always a good scenario.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#354668) #
I'm expecting the Jays to pick up a SS option near the end of spring with Ngoepe going on waivers and heading to triple-A. He just doesn't have a big league bat (even for a bench player -- maybe Goins will become available).

Don't get too excited about Maile -- both of his hits came against double-A pitchers. That matters. (Same for Teoscar's homer).
uglyone - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#354669) #
because I know you've all been waiting with bated breath, just figured I'd post the 2yr stats of everyone who I think is in contention for a roster spot that has had at least minimal mlb time (i.e. 10pa/ip+).

as always, multiple war are averaged out here.


3B Josh (32): 1196pa, 153wrc+, 12.5war, 6.8war650
1B Smoak (31): 977pa, 118wrc+, 3.1war, 2.0war650
LF Grandy (37): 1160pa, 110wrc+, 4.4war, 2.5war650
DH Morales (35): 1226pa, 104wrc+, 0.4war, 0.2war650
2B Travis (27): 629pa, 103wrc+, 3.4war, 3.5war650
C Martin (35): 900pa, 100wrc+, 3.5war, 2.5war650
RF Grichuk (26): 920pa, 98wrc+, 3.7war, 2.6war650
SS Tulo (33): 804pa, 95wrc+, 3.2war, 2.6war650
CF Pillar (29): 1216pa, 83wrc+, 5.7war, 3.0war650

UT Pearce (35): 650pa, 116wrc+, 2.2war, 2.2war650
UT Diaz (27): 761pa, 111wrc+, 2.9war, 2.5war65
UT Solarte (30): 955pa, 105wrc+, 3.7war, 2.5war650
C Maile (27): 262pa, 29wrc+, -0.1war, -0.3war650

OF Smith (25): 29pa, 135wrc+, 0.1war, 2.2war650
OF Teoscar (25): 207pa, 112wrc+, 0.6war, 1.9war650
IF Ngoepe (28): 63pa, 71wrc+, 0.0war, 0.0war650
IF Urena (22): 75pa, 53wrc+, -0.3war, -2.2war650



SP Happ (35): 57gs, 6.0ip/gs, 77era-, 7.3war, 4.1war32
SP Sanchez (25): 38gs, 6.0ip/gs, 75era-, 4.7war, 3.9war32
SP Stroman (27): 65gs, 6.2ip/gs, 86era-, 7.3war, 3.6war32
SP Estrada (34): 62gs, 5.8ip/gs, 98era-, 5.7war, 2.9war32
SP Garcia (31): 57gs, 5.7ip/gs, 109era-, 2.7war, 1.5war32

SP Biagini (28): 18gs, 4.9ip/gs, 129era-, 0.4war, 0.6war32
SP McGuire (29): 2gs, 6.8ip/gs, 60era-, 0.2war, 3.2war32


RP Osuna (23): 138.0ip, 69era-, 4.3war, 2.2war70
RP Oh (35): 139.0ip, 68era-, 2.8war, 1.4war70
RP Biagini (28): 99.1ip, 80era-, 1.3war, 0.9war70
RP Tepera (30): 96.0ip, 79era-, 1.1war, 0.8war70
RP Barnes (28): 79.2ip, 82era-, 1.0war, 0.8war70
RP Loup (30): 72.0ip, 91era-, 0.6war, 0.5war70
RP Clippard (33): 123.1ip, 96era-, 0.9war, 0.5war70

RP Axford (35): 86.2ip, 109era-, 0.1war, 0.0war70
RP Ramirez (27): 16.2ip, 61era-, 0.3war, 1.3war70
RP Alburquerque (32): 20.0ip, 62era-, 0.3war, 0.9war70
RP Santos (27): 16.2ip, 61era-, 0.2war, 0.8war70
RP Breslow (37): 49.1ip, 113era-, -0.2war, -0.2war70
RP Mayza (26): 17.0ip, 156era-, -0.1war, -0.3war70
RP Dermody (28): 25.1ip, 122era-, -0.3war, -0.7war70

China fan - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#354670) #
"....Don't get too excited about Maile...."

Perhaps not, but he has just been handed a major-league job again, since Danny Jansen was optioned to Buffalo after today's game.

In other news, the Jays admit that Donaldson has a "calf" issue and will miss a few games. It suggests that they weren't entirely candid when they said that JD was merely "dehydrated" on Sunday.
Richard S.S. - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#354671) #
Danny Barnes still has an option left as does Ryan Tepera. Ryan should be a lock for the Team, but Danny needs to be very good to stay. I think heís being challenged by Luis Santos whoís pushing him hard. That might not matter as most if not all decisions have already been made.
grjas - Tuesday, March 13 2018 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#354672) #
he moved too soon doing the big Miami & New York trades

What the trades did do is reignite fan interest in the city resulting in a 20 percent jump in attendance and a commensurate jump in payroll. Iím not sure the 2015 and 2016 playoff teams would have happened if Rogers hadnít seen the huge increase in bums in seats starting in the 2013 season.
Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#354674) #
Danny Barnes is an absolute lock for the bullpen....if we are even debating axing Axford or Clipard North than Barnes is beyond debate for making the team.
China fan - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 02:50 AM EDT (#354675) #
Aside from Osuna, there shouldn't be any permanent locks in this bullpen. The Jays have gotten in trouble in the past when they assumed that a reliever would be as good as his pedigree, or as good as his previous season. In the case of Barnes, his performance slipped in the second half of last season -- his ERA was 4.84 from July 22 onward. That was probably due to over-work, but it's something that shouldn't be completely overlooked in projecting his performance this year.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#354677) #
The interviews with AA are great. The 2013 trades with Miami and NYM raised the payroll to a level that reflects the size of the Jay's market.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#354678) #
Minor league baseball has introduced pace of play rules including the international rule of putting a runner on second in extra innings. Front offices and managers will appreciate it as it can take a team, particularly the bullpen, a while to recover from a 15 or 16 inning game. But fans will not get to see those lengthy games.

Some fans will be happy as many minor league games end with fireworks and most fans don't want to sit through 15 innings waiting for the fireworks.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#354679) #
Age will always be an issue with the Jays. The Fans love their favourites, their heroes, their family and want them with them for a long time. Getting younger, better, faster, smarter is rarely possible in Free Agency but is possible through trades and via the Draft. Each has itís own issues.

The Jays have to survive the next two years, 2018 and 2019, before they are able to do what they want. But they should be able to get younger, better, faster, smarter at least one position at a time. Did they do that with Randal Grichuk? Or should they have done more?
Parker - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#354680) #
...the international rule of putting a runner on second in extra innings.

If that runner scores, does he only get credit for half a run? He didn't really "earn" the other half of it. Only half an RBI for the batter that drives him in, as well. And the pitcher only gets dinged with half an earned run. Heh.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#354681) #
The runner on second is considered to have reached on an error so his scoring would not be considered an earned run.
Parker - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#354682) #
The runner on second is considered to have reached on an error so his scoring would not be considered an earned run.

That makes sense. Thanks Gerry.
Mike Green - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#354683) #
This scoring mechanism does lead to distortions.  If a pitcher is brought on in the bottom of the tenth in a tie game, the runner is placed on second with a notional error and the pitcher basically has no risk to ERA (in other words, all upside to the batters faced and no downside).  It's another reason to be very skeptical of reliever ERAs anywhere but especially now in the minor leagues.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#354684) #
How many games does Seung-Hwan Oh need to pitch in to be ready for the Season? If it is more than are left, the Jays can technically put him on the 10-Day D.L. That might not get him ready soon enough. Do the Jays keep him on the Roster to slowly develop or might something more drastic occur? Can they void the contract?
SK in NJ - Wednesday, March 14 2018 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#354685) #
I like the 2018 team better than the 2017 team (pre-season) due to increased depth + increased young talent in AAA (Alford, Hernandez, Jansen, Borucki, Pannone, etc). Depth charts has the Jays at 87 wins (2nd WC), a similar spot they had them last winter if I recall correctly. That's a higher win total than I'd project, but the team is more capable of dealing with injuries than they were a year ago, especially with the more injury prone talent on the roster (Tulo, Travis, Pearce). Obviously they cannot afford a Donaldson or Stroman injury, and need Sanchez to be something resembling his 2016 self. A lot of things have to break right, but the 2nd wild card is certainly there for the taking.

I'd probably have them somewhere between 80-88 wins. The floor is certainly higher than last year, so I don't think they will completely fall off a cliff like last year if they run into bad luck, injuries, etc.
uglyone - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#354689) #
tough spring for Borucki, though today it seems like the defense let him down (including his own failed pickoff).
greenfrog - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#354690) #
Sickelsí top 175 is up. By my count, there are ten Jays on the list, including Guerrero (2), Bichette (5), and Alford (36). Pretty impressive showing.
uglyone - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#354691) #
thanks for the heads up greenfrog.



Sickels Top-175: https://www.minorleagueball.com/2018/3/15/17121536/top-175-mlb-prospects-for-2018


2) Vladdy A
5) Bo A

36) Alford B+ - "will hit enough for his tools to matter"

96) Borucki B/B+
101) Pearson B/B+

126) Jansen B - "may be too low in the long run"
142) SRF B - "who is the real SRF? 2016 version or 2017?"
147) Warmoth B
153) Adams B - "like him a lot. don't sleep on him"
167) Zeuch B


nice shout out to Adams.

China fan - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#354692) #
"....it seems like the defense let him down..."

Borucki was definitely let down by Pillar, who dropped a fly ball that he should have had. That cost the Jays two runs, since Borucki should have been out of the inning.

Teoscar Hernandez, meanwhile, has a double and a single today. He is making a strong case to be in a Jays uniform soon, if not on opening day.

Gerry - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#354693) #
I just noticed that Ben Wagner has been doing play by play for around three weeks now. Rob Fai had a chance but he has announced that he has not been chosen. It looks to me that Ben Wagner might get the job.
China fan - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#354694) #
Rhiner Cruz is the forgotten man in the Jays bullpen race, but he's actually been pitching quite well. Another good outing today against the Red Sox: 1.1 innings with no hits or walks. That doesn't alter the reality that there's no room for him, but maybe he accepts a Buffalo assignment and becomes a depth option for the Jays later in the season.
uglyone - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#354695) #
He was legit good in AAA last year too.
China fan - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#354696) #
Also a nice outing from Deck McGuire, while Luis Santos got hit around.

The bullpen situation is becoming a lot clearer. Axford has been virtually guaranteed a job. That leaves only one spot, and I think Clippard has to get it, since he has reverse splits and can help Loup against LHB.

There's a slight chance of an 8-man pen. There's a slight chance that Danny Barnes gets demoted to make room for someone whom the Jays really want to keep. There's a slight chance that Oh begins the season on the "restricted" list if his work visa doesn't come through. But otherwise it's almost certain that the bullpen goes like this: Osuna, Oh, Tepera, Barnes, Loup, Clippard, Axford.

The Jays will hope to keep most of the NRIs by persuading them to accept Buffalo assignments. They might lose Breslow and Albuerquerque. I assume Santos accepts a Buffalo assignment, since he came back to the Jays after being dropped from the 40-man roster. Deck McGuire presumably wants to stay too. There will be lots of bullpen depth in Buffalo, with the likes of Santos, Guerrieri, Mayza, Dermody, McGuire and at least a couple of the NRIs.
mendocino - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#354697) #
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/02/tracking-non-roster-invitees-with-big-league-experience.html

Only Breslow has an opt out

TORONTO BLUE JAYS | Depth Chart
Deck McGuire, SP/RP
Chris Rowley, SP/RP
Luis Santos, SP/RP
Al Alburquerque, RP
John Axford, RP
Craig Breslow, RP $1.25MM salary in Majors; opt-out 3/22
Tyler Clippard, RP
Rhiner Cruz, RP
Chad Girodo, RP
Jake Petricka, RP $1.3MM salary in Majors
vw_fan17 - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#354698) #
So can someone explain the whole sleep/dream on prospects thing to me? "You can dream on him" is good? Or bad? "Don't sleep on him" is good? Or is it bad?

So is sleeping bad, but dreaming good? "Don't dream" is a caution? Or are they both bad, or both good or neither? I gotta say, it's REALLY confusing.

From non-baseball/prospect usage "sleeping/dreaming" to me would be bad along the lines of daydreaming/sleeping on the job. And "don't sleep/dream" would mean, "get up, you lazy bones and get to work". I understand that it has something to do with the future, and waiting for them to arrive, but it's really not clear whether it's in the near future/imminent sense, the distant (3-4 year+) future, it already happened 2 years ago and you missed it, or what..

Thanks for any clarifications.
China fan - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#354699) #
"....Only Breslow has an opt out...."

Thanks, that's interesting. But I thought there are sometimes informal agreements that a player would be released if he didn't make the major-league roster. I don't know if any of the other NRIs might have this kind of unofficial agreement. Albuerquerque might be a logical candidate to have this kind of understanding, since he would probably want to try his luck elsewhere if he doesn't make the 25-man roster.
ComebyDeanChance - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#354700) #
I just noticed that Ben Wagner has been doing play by play for around three weeks now. Rob Fai had a chance but he has announced that he has not been chosen. It looks to me that Ben Wagner might get the job.

Rob Fai on Twitter "i know the young man they have in mind is going to do a great job for years to come". I doubt that's a reference to Mike Wilner, who may get the broadcast 'partner' role though, at least for a while. I'm somewhat disappointed as I thought Fai had the best broadcast voice at least of those I heard.
rotorose - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#354701) #
Watched the first few innings of two minor league spring games today in Dunedin (Phillies at the Jays Solon Rd. complex - very common). Nate Pearson had electric stuff and had the benefit of Danny Jansen catching him, even though it was a mixed A/AA type of game. Guerrero went 2  for 2 in his first at bats. Bo Bichette,  playing in the AAA game presumably because the AAA infield is all playing at major league camp right now,  had a hit in the only at-bat I saw.  Rosie DiManno of the Toronto Star also came to watch and left just before we did. With Alford and Hernandez looking so good in major league camp, the next few years are definitely looking up.
bpoz - Thursday, March 15 2018 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#354702) #
Thanks rotorose. I love the positives.
AWeb - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#354703) #
So is sleeping bad, but dreaming good?

A prospect you don't want to sleep on is a prospect that the writer thinks is better than others might. I usually think of a guy described this way as a prospect that lacks a flashy toolset, but continues to perform well, but the usage almost definitely varies. It's good for the prospect to "not be slept on", as far as the writer in question is concerned. It's a similar vocabulary to fantasy baseball, where a sleeper is a likely good player who is undervalued by the general consensus.

A prospect you can dream on is also good, but I think it would describe a player with flashy tools but lacking results. The big power if they can make contact type, or 100mph fastball if they can hit the zone type, those sorts of guys.

Those are my interpretations. I'd rather have a guy "you don't want to sleep on" than a guy "you can dream on". Examples in my head - Pillar or Stroman were guys you didn't want to sleep on (performed well everywhere, still not considered tippy-top prospects).

Mike Green - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#354704) #
Alford out 3-6 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring sprain.  He had significant lost time in 2016 (knee and neck) and in 2017 (wrist).
dalimon5 - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#354705) #
Dude can't stay healthy.Let him dominate when he returns then trade him for a comparable prospect with less intensity. You're dreaming on Alford to think he can steal, hit , play defense and be durable. He just can't stay healthy at all. A side from his hamster bone injury, every other injury has been caused by slides or running.


I'd like to see the Jays sign Holland (Demote Barnes or Loup) with Axford/Clippard coming North. Or trade some bullpen strength like Loup along with Pompey and a fill in for Jurickson Profar.

Can't wait to see Tuloeitzki playing healthy for first time in Blue Jays uniform later this year. We shall see if one of the freaks of nature has fallen of a cliff at 31 or if he's been playing injured this whole time, as it appears Josh Donaldson was trying to do last year and this year.
dalimon5 - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#354706) #
Excuse the autocorrect.
Thomas - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#354707) #
There's an excellent article on Biagini over at The Athletic (subscription required).
bpoz - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#354708) #
What ever word you want to use good health is definitely a skill/talent .... major factor in valuing a player.

So how should teams strategize for that factor? As much depth as possible and throw money at the problem.

Latos, Borucki and C Greene can be added in the off season. So Greene gives St Louis pitching depth but the loss of Grichuck depletes the OF depth. But I suppose Grichuk could not be stashed in AAA but T Hernandez could be sent down by Houston since he has 1 option remaining.

So the Jay's OF depth is much thinner with Zeke gone and Alford temporarily unavailable.

How about money. Detroit would be happy to trade some pieces if they believe that 2018 is a rebuilding year. V Martinez for example.

Mike Green - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#354709) #
Yes, that is a fascinating article on Biagini with interesting points about usage variability and (particularly) tunnels for the curveball.

Happy birthday, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.  On his 19th birthday, I will raise a glass to his health at dinner tonight...

bpoz - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#354710) #
Jonathan Davis could make a decent 4th OF. Good defense. But I don't know how strong his arm is.
bpoz - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#354711) #
Good game today for J Garcia. 5 IP. He will be ready.
Gerry - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#354712) #
Thomas Pannone has received an 80 game suspension for steroids.
Thomas - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#354713) #
Thomas Pannone has received an 80 game suspension for the same steroid that Colabello tested positive for.
Gerry - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#354714) #
For the record Pannone denies taking anything and claims to have taken a ploygraph and passed.
Shoeless Joe - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#354715) #
That's too bad for Pannone, and I legitimately believe him.

Altuve gets a 5 years, 150 million dollar extension to cover his age 29-34 seasons... this seems less than I expected. Does this set an absolute ceiling for Donaldson?

Does 15% less or 127 over 5 make sense? 25.5 per season?
Mike Green - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#354716) #
"Ploygraph" is an unfortunate typo.

I really want to believe Pannone, of course. It may very well go to arbitration as Ryan Braun's case did. If so, we'll see what the arbitrator thinks about the polygraph evidence.

dan gordon - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#354717) #
Very surprising and unfortunate news about Pannone. I read the statement he issued, and it is extremely strongly worded in terms of declaring his innocence. Ross Atkins also issued a statement detailing how long he has known Pannone, and stating he believes him. Very interesting that this is the same thing that Colabello tested positive for, and he was also adamant that he did not use the drug. If these guys are telling the truth, it may indicate a problem with the lab doing the testing, whether due to contamination of samples or other problems. I hope that all measures will been taken to ensure that testing errors are not being made. These players' careers are at stake, and absolute accuracy must be the only acceptable standard.
Richard S.S. - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#354718) #
Does anyone really know the lengths the Suppliers of our consumables will go to increase their profitability of the products? I donít think they have limits until they are caught doing something wrong. Itís possible to test positive from just those consumables. But there is still one thing to be remembered. While MLB is not always right, MLB is never wrong.
uglyone - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#354719) #
I don't believe Pannone for a second but i don't blame him either.
Thomas - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#354720) #
Maese appears to be out for the year.
Mike Green - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#354721) #
Rough day.
85bluejay - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#354722) #
Didn't believe Colabello, Don't believe Pannone - regarding the polygraph test, guilty people have been known to pass those test - if it had been independently done say by someone approved by MLB, then I may have given it some credence - it's also true that he may honestly believe he hasn't taken DHCMT but he probably wasn't as careful as he should have been with supplements he's taken - that's on him.
85bluejay - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#354723) #
Justin Maese - surgery on pitching shoulder - terrible news, very tough to come back from surgery on throwing shoulder - sadly, don't ever expect to see Maese in a MLB uniform though I'm rooting for him.
SK in NJ - Friday, March 16 2018 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#354724) #
Pitching prospects are so volatile. Iím actually glad the Jays system is heavier on the position player side because it will be easier to work with that set up. A young group of upside position players and a vet rotation is the ideal roster construction.

Tough break for Maese, especially since itís the shoulder. There seems to be a new injury and now suspension every day for this team. Not the best start to the spring.
uglyone - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#354725) #
yeah i love maese but his odds now approach nil.

shitty shitty news.
TangledUpInBlue - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#354726) #
To quote the Beautiful (ugly) One:

... with babip the only thing making his line look decent...

... it's true that high babip isn't a disqualifier in itself...


As Glevin was saying, though, it's far from a disqualifier. In fact, if I recall correctly, it's one of the most relevant predictors of future success for a player in the low minors. (I think it's only around AAA that it stops being so.) So all the criticism of Warmoth in this regard should be taken as encouragement. High BABIP in the minors generally means they're hitting a lot of line drives, which of course is a good thing.
Gerry - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#354727) #
Blue Jays have signed Danny Espinosa. He will likely be the 25th guy until Tulo returns. Gift Ngoepe will go to the minors.
Marc Hulet - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#354728) #
Looking for a silver lining, ff I'm not mistaken, the Pannone suspension will buy the Jays a 40-man roster spot while he's off.
Thomas - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#354729) #
Which version of Danny Espinosa will the Jays get?

Full beard, Fu Manchu or five o'clock shadow?
bpoz - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#354730) #
Tough for Maese and the Jays. He was close to our top 10.

With about 3 weeks until the Minor League opening day, assignments should be taking form. I am very interested in the NH pen. It looks stacked to me.

But baseball is unpredictable.
uglyone - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#354731) #
smart pickup in espinosa.
uglyone - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#354732) #
"if I recall correctly, it's one of the most relevant predictors of future success "

that goes a bit too far imo.

high babip for a hitter is always something that has to be factored in more as a negative than a positive translating his current hitting line forward.

in warmoth's case it's not just the high babip but also the large gap between babip and average - i.e. just a small drop in his high babip makes his batting average look like a weakness, not a strength.

and fangraphs gives us line drive rates for prospects, and at 16.8% this is more of a weakness than a strength of warmoth's line last year. and if he was making the kind of hard contact that earns a high babip you'd expect to see better power numbers, too.
John Northey - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#354734) #
I'm hoping the big 2 (Vlad & Bo) are in NH to start the season and mid-season move to Buffalo. That way both could be available in 2019 to replace Donaldson. It'll be fun to watch how it all goes this year.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#354736) #
I was lazily reading 'Pannone's' statement (a packet of nonsense drafted by his lawyer) and didn't burst out laughing until I read how Pannone "agreed" to a polygraph test - an interesting choice of words for a polygraph test that his lawyer sought out, obviously from an 'expert' who can be relied upon to give the result that's being paid for. This 'expert' is described as an 'experienced former FBI agent' rather than a tester being paid for by Pannone, arranged for by his lawyer. As though the FBi, or any reliable agency for that matter, was involved in any way with this attempt by a guy caught cheating to avoid the consequences.

But what made me laugh out loud was the claim that Pannone passed "with one of the highest scores' possible". Polygraphs are quasi-scientific tests from which someone makes a rough estimate, or eyeball guess, about whether the person is telling the truth or not. Pannone's lawyer's claim in 'Pannone's' statement reminded me of Trump's claim about scoring so highly on a mental incompetence test recently.

And of course, Pannone's lawyer tosses in the usual shots at the PA. This is one of my favs, and I'm sure with endear Pannone to the PA "It is my hope that future athletes who unknowingly test positive for DHCMT. will have a better chance to clear their names than I have had". It's pretty hard to 'clear your name' when a rock-solid WADA lab finds you've been cheating. If Pannone was worried about his name, that ship sailed when he went down the PED path. I can't imagine the arbitrator will be interested in his Trumpian "highest possible score" on some polygraph test that his lawyer arranged.
China fan - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#354737) #
Marcus Stroman looked very comfortable in his 2 innings today, and he still has a chance to be ready for a game in the opening series against the Yankees. The rotation, in fact, is shaping up very well at this point, with all the pitchers looking good.

Other highlights so far today: Bo Bichette with a HR, single and SB in his first two plate appearances; and Vlad Guerrero with a terrific defensive play at 3B, racing in to scoop up a short-hop grounder and firing to 1B for the out.

In the other game against Baltimore this afternoon, Biagini is pitching well, allowing no runs in 3 innings, and Danny Espinosa is 2-2 in his first Jays game.
Paul D - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#354738) #
CDC, do you accept that false positives happen?
China fan - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#354739) #
The injuries to Alford and Pompey are opening up an opportunity for Roemon Fields, who might otherwise be squeezed out of the Buffalo outfield. People have been skeptical of him as a prospect, and with good reason: his hitting in the minors has been poor and he's already 27 years old. But he's having a good spring (.919 OPS), and he looked useful in Buffalo last season. He still has no slugging power, but he posted a .355 OBP and 43 stolen bases in Buffalo last season. Anything close to that could give him a job as a 4th OF in the majors. He looks useful on defence too. He's been playing at CF this spring, showing his speed. I watched a few of his plays on the television broadcast, and he has given me flashbacks to Devon White by gliding under fly balls from a very long distance away, making it look easy.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#354740) #
CDC, do you accept that false positives happen?

Undermining the reliability of WADA testing has been a focus of everyone caught cheating, from the state-sponsored cheaters in Russia to the PED frauds in baseball. I have no doubt that if WADA tests were turning out false positives, WADA would make sure everyone knew that. The truth however, is exactly the other way. Beating the test is apparently relatively easy. The cheat industry is well ahead of the test industry. To the extent that there can be any concern about false results, it's about false negatives.
China fan - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#354741) #
Just noticed that Fields has two more hits today against Baltimore, including a triple. So you can revise upward the spring OPS that I mentioned earlier.
jerjapan - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#354742) #
Jays have just claimed lefty Sam Moll on waivers, further complicating the 40 man.  He's battled injuries and showed average stuff in a brief big-league audition, seemingly a bit slower than his draft profile and prospect reports which had him as high as 96mph, but as a former 3rd rounder who just turned 26, I like him better than the soon-to-be 28 Dermody.   I believe he has 2 options left.  He's given up two baserunners with no Ks in 4 IP this Spring. 

I missed that Zeke had signed with the Braves - good luck to him, easy guy to like.  That Buffalo OF is still plenty crowded even with AA injured again, although perhaps the injury changes the math on the most likely name to drop from the 40 man -  Smith Jr. might be more valuable now esp. with Espinosa a nice improvement on Ngoepe and Moll likely better than Dermody. 

I'm with China though, Fields looks like a better 4th / 5th OF (and ace pinch runner) to me.   I like a bench player with one strong skill like Field's speed over a 'generally decent at everything' guy like Smith, who seems not to be able to play CF either.  

uglyone - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#354743) #
I don't get the Mill pickup tbh
dan gordon - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#354744) #
The Jays have picked up yet another LOOGY possibility, claiming Sam Moll on waivers to fill the 40-man spot vacated by the suspension of Pannone. Moll, of course will likely be cut again when they need spots for 1-2 relievers to start the season, and the addition of Espinosa.

Speaking of whom, Espinosa is coming off a terrible season, and may not have much left, but he was pretty good in 2016, and is probably a better bet than Ngoepe as the 25th man on the roster. If Diaz hits like he did last year, Espinosa could even take over as the SS until Tulo is back. He's a strikeout machine, but has decent power, switch hits, and can play multiple positions.
China fan - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#354745) #
The Jays don't really need another LOOGY option. I wonder if they are considering the idea of converting Moll back into a starter, although he hasn't been in that role for several years. Seattle was planning to convert him into a starter when they acquired him last year, but then they ran out of roster space for him. According to reports, Moll has three pitches: a fastball of 90 to 94 mph, a good changeup, and a breaking pitch of some kind. He might profile better as a starter. Of course it's very unclear whether the Jays will have room for him on the 40-man roster when they need to make room for Axford and probably Clippard.
Paul D - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#354746) #
I guess that's a no?

I mean, it's almost certainly the case that everyone busted for PEDs is guilty. However, it's also almost a virtual certainty that there have been some false positives. I suppose I'm a sucker, but that fact always gives me pause before coming down too hard on anyone.
Mike Green - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#354748) #
Pannone doesn't seem to be suggesting that the test was a false positive, rather that he doesn't know how the PED got into his body.  And yes, "one of the highest scores possible" on a polygraph isn't exactly an impressive statement. 

Espinosa was a good acquisition- I had thought that he would likely end up in Buffalo, but it's true that he could end up as the starting shortstop with Diaz and Ngoepe having their issues too. Over his career, Espinosa has been a lot better hitting right-handed than left-handed.  I wonder if he might do better giving up switch-hitting.  He knows that he is going to have cut the Ks somehow to survive.

Richard S.S. - Saturday, March 17 2018 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#354749) #
Dalton Pompeyís injury has an added bonus - separated bone. That sounds ugly. Is it possible he goes on the 60-Day D.L. at the first opportunity? Itís been a while since there was any word on Carlos Ramirez. Is it possible he joins the 60-Day D.L. at the first opportunity? It is unlikely Troy Tulovwitzki will take that long to be ready. I think within two to four weeks is more likely.

Adding Axford and Clifford to the 25- and 40-Man Rosters is easy now. Adding anyone else needs another move and decisions like that take more time. Strange, adding a waiver claim needs a 40-Man Roster spot.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#354751) #
high babip for a hitter is always something that has to be factored in more as a negative than a positive translating his current hitting line forward.

But again, it's considered one of the best predictors of future success in the low minors. It really is a positive. Now I take it you're saying that if we have enough context (enough other stats), we can perhaps know that a high BABIP was the result of luck and not skill. You make a good point regarding Warmoth's line drive rate, for example. But I don't think that alone is enough to turn his BABIP from a positive to a negative.

As for this, I agree:

in warmoth's case it's not just the high babip but also the large gap between babip and average - i.e. just a small drop in his high babip makes his batting average look like a weakness, not a strength.

In other words, he has a high K rate, and that's a big negative.
85bluejay - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#354752) #
Interesting that the Jays claimed and will probably try to sneak through waivers Sam Moll and not former Jays prospect Jairo Labourt who is younger & I think throws harder and arguably had a better 2017 - maybe Moll was on Cleveland/Boston draft radar in 2013 & that person still likes him.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#354753) #
I should also mention that the line drive theory of BABIP -- i.e., that that's the explanation for why high BABIP is a good thing in the low minors -- is just a theory, or just part of any theory. Speed, of course, is also a factor in BABIP, and there's also the possibility that good hitters at that level know how to hit 'em where they ain't.

I imagine in several years we'll have more insight into this, as by then we'll be able to correlate the line drive data from the minors with the success or failure of prospects. But that, as far as I know, isn't known yet. As things stand, though, there is a correlation between BABIP and future success.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#354754) #
The folks behind KATOH suggest that in the low minors, contact rate and power (relative to age and league of course) are the best predictors of major league success for hitters. Which is, of course, why Guerrero Jr. and Bichette are such great prospects.
John Northey - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#354756) #
What is funny is KATOH rates Vlad lower than the subjective systems (15th vs 3rd or 4th on the others) while putting Bo higher (7th vs 8th or lower). Still no complains on those 2 especially given both were teens last year and should be in AA this year. Should be fun to watch them over the next 7 years - lets hope the Jays can do a 12 year deal with each :)
uglyone - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#354757) #
remember, though, KATOH thought Vlad was one of the best prospects in baseball last year (#3 iirc), when all the scouting rankings were nowhere near that high on him.
GabrielSyme - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#354759) #
Warmoth's K rate wasn't that bad (19%), but he was also aggressive, and his swinging strike rate was fairly high but not a terrible rate (11.1%). Interestingly, another college bat playing at a valuable position was also in Vancouver - Riley Adams. Adams had a slightly higher strikeout rate (22%), but an almost identical swinging strike rate (11.2%); but Adams also hit for slightly more power, walked twice as often, and had a better batted-ball distribution (fewer pop-ups, not as pull-heavy).

Ordinarily, I'd say that Warmoth's draft position would mean we should still prefer him, but Adams is 10 months younger, and reports of his defence in Vancouver were quite good. I'll take Adams.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#354760) #
Seems poor Jorge Polanco also has received a 80 game suspension, when just like poor Thomas Pannone, steroids just somehow snuck their way into his body despite him never deliberately using them.

It would be good if at some point the PED cheats could be required to think up something more original, and more entertaining, than this idiotic drivel. Melky Cabrera for example, was a giant among his cheater peers, when his legal team showed the initiative and creativity to 'invent' a non-existent supplement, and even create a webpage for it, in an attempt to disguise his cheating. This dull-witted "I have no idea how this steroid got in my body" flatulence ought to warrant an extra 20 games for predictability.
uglyone - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#354761) #
yeah Gabe if Adams is actually a C he looks like a better prospect to me too.
85bluejay - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#354762) #
All the players testing positive for PEDs are guilty - except, of course, the guys playing for my team.
dan gordon - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 07:32 PM EDT (#354763) #
At least Polanco stated how he got the steroids into his body, although he blamed others. Said he was taking a supplement that was supposed to be vitamin B12 and iron, but must have had the steroid in it. Sounds pretty unlikely, although I saw a good report on TV a few weeks ago which said that supplements often don't contain much (or any) of what they're supposed to have, and can have contaminants from other drugs manufactured at the same facility.
Mike Green - Sunday, March 18 2018 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#354764) #
There have been many reputable articles on steroid contamination in supplements going back to 2006 (from a member of the training staff of the Canadian Olympic team).  Here is one from the New York Times in 2017. 

Ballplayers, if they take supplements, should keep a complete record of them.  The union (ideally with MLB) should arrange for random testing of supplements and publish (at least internally for the use of all players in major and minor league baseball) the results for each supplement.
Richard S.S. - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 02:11 AM EDT (#354765) #
Too many people have a smug attitude when people say I did not do that. No one wants to give anyone the benefit of the doubt. No one could belief plain chocolate could trigger ďnutĒ allergies in people - same initial attitude. No one believes someone would contaminate another persons food or drink to trigger a bad result. Itís a big bad ugly sick world out there and we, at best, only see 7% - 10% of it. Some of us see too much more. Iíll give Pannone the benifit of the doubt until I know better.
John Northey - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#354778) #
I agree with you Richard. Too easy for, say, an ex to slip something into your drink, or a person at the gym to do so, or for what you are using as a supplement to be contaminated. With such high consequences it must be a nightmare for non-stars who cannot afford to have someone check everything before they use it. If you are pulling in $20 mil a year ala Donaldson you can hire some company to double check everything you use. If you are a rookie, minor leaguer, or not up to 3 years service yet then it is a lot harder.

Given the number of issues we've seen in the Jays system it'd be smart for them to provide minor leaguers and early major leaguers with their supplements instead of leaving them on their own. Especially those in 3rd world countries like the Dominican.
Mike Green - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#354783) #
Chris Archer has some interesting thoughts on Tampa's pitching plans in this article by Travis Sawchik in fangraphs. 
Chuck - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#354784) #
as a supplement to be contaminated

The (dubious) supplement industry is not regulated. Lot of risk for a benefit that is likely no more than placebo effect. Of course these are wasted words in a world where cupping is now a thing.

I've had my chakras cleared and I'm now breathing through my eyelids. Bring on the season!

Mike Green - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#354786) #
I'm now breathing through my eyelids

Fernando Valenzuela was a compelling role model. 

I found this interesting article from the 2005 Hardball Times on the need for an approved supplements list.  Incidentally, I don't have any problem with penalties for people who take unregulated supplements which conceivably might lead to positive drug tests.  It doesn't mean though that their actions (or more accurately, negligence/recklessness) merit the same tone in response as someone who wilfully takes the drug and attempts to hide it.  It may indeed be that the people who take the drug intentionally are more likely to avoid detection. 
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#354796) #
There have been many reputable articles on steroid contamination in supplements going back to 2006 (from a member of the training staff of the Canadian Olympic team). Here is one from the New York Times in 2017. Ballplayers, if they take supplements, should keep a complete record of them. The union (ideally with MLB) should arrange for random testing of supplements and publish (at least internally for the use of all players in major and minor league baseball) the results for each supplement.

The MLBPA and the clubs are way ahead of you Mike. Your 2006 article is from an entirely different testing universe. Each of the clubs now provides all fo the supplements that a player could reasonably take. The jointly approved MLB/MLBPA testing program provides for that. The David Ortiz 2003 story about how he never knowingly took steroids but was careless with supplements is now no longer a possible defence. It's an easy lie of course, which is why the MLB/MLBPA program provides for cub-supplied supplements. And there is not a shred of evidence to support the claim that a player tested positive due to taking supplements provided by clubs and approved under the program.

Neither the clubs nor the PA have patience anymore for the easy lie that a player is innocent because he took unapproved supplements. No player would sensibly take that risk and it's no longer a defence, which is why Pannone's lawyer complained in 'Pannone's' statement about not being allowed to launch his David Ortiz 2003 defence.
uglyone - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#354797) #
David Ortiz. Man oh man. The most beloved cheater ever.
Chuck - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#354798) #
AA, forced to tell an obvious lie about Acuna's demotion (probably best to cover yourself in plastic so you don't get sprayed by the BS):

"the more we talked about it organizationally, from a philosophical standpoint, having more development time, no one's ever been hurt by that. We do feel like it's probably best overall from a philosophical standpoint to get him more development time"

Mike Green - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#354799) #
CBDC, I read the agreement and saw a reference to educational programs about the dangers of supplements but nothing about teams providing approved supplements to players. Do you have a cite?
bpoz - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#354800) #
Thank you Chuck. I believed so much BS in the past. I have always valued your contributions. Da Box is a friendly and trustworthy place for me.

I have a beer. Cheers to all.
hypobole - Monday, March 19 2018 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#354802) #
You may want to read this, Mike. Teams provide only the basics. NSF is the company that ensures product safety/compliance.

https://www.menshealth.com/guy-wisdom/nsf-certified-for-sport-app-pro-athletes-supplements
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 20 2018 @ 09:25 AM EDT (#354810) #
Thanks, hypobole.  For what it's worth, NSF does not (of course) guarantee that certified supplements are free of banned substances.  Rather it indicates that athletes who take these supplements minimize their risk of a positive test.  I'd like to know if any of the many positive tests from the New York Times article in November were from NSF-certified supplements. 

I have a very technical question.  Is there any way of telling from urine or blood testing whether an athlete has had long-term vs. one-time recent use of steroids? 
scottt - Tuesday, March 20 2018 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#354812) #
There's a lot of variability  in PED characteristics.
Some are identified by by-products. There are masking agents and most of those are banned.
Still, we see guys getting caught with old stuff that nobody should be manufacturing.
Nobody makes Turinabol these days. It has no legit medical application.
That rules out accidental ingestion and cross contamination of a legit supplement.
It has a half life of 16 hours, so it seems like somebody would have to be taking it regularly to trigger a positive test or be an unlucky dude.

There is no benefit of the doubt here. Baseball uses a 3 strike rule. Strike 1.

hypobole - Tuesday, March 20 2018 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#354813) #
How many people have had allergic reactions to supposedly peanut-free Canadian manufactured Mars bars? Just a guess, but I'd say zero.

Supplements are made in batches. If one person has a positive test, but no one else who used that batch of product did, again just a guess, that one person also used a different, tainted product.
Mike Green - Tuesday, March 20 2018 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#354814) #
Hypobole, I gather that steroid detection periods vary considerably by the steroid, and can be as little as a couple of days, so the fact that there are no other positive tests arising from one batch may not say much (the great majority of supplement users are not subject to a testing regime).  In the case of DHCMT, the steroid that Pannone tested positive for, it appears that there are long-term metabolites which are tested for.  It may (or may not) be that the quantity of metabolites found are inconsistent with a single use of contaminated supplements.  In any event, I have no issue with the sanction but merely the tone of the rhetoric in the face of some uncertainty and a less than full account of the facts.

As an aside, isn't it somewhat strange for the MLBPA to be negotiating a drug testing protocol for minor league players who it does not represent?

scottt - Tuesday, March 20 2018 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#354823) #
There are products being made with peanuts in them. Even an ingredients that is peanut-free could be contaminated by an other ingredients that has traces of peanuts in it.
There are zero products, ingredients or sub-products being made anywhere on the planet with Turinabol in it.
That stuff has to come from somebody's crystal meth lab. That's kind of a big deal to me.

Anyway. Strike 1. Don't let it happen again. Hopefully, his performance is not impacted.

vw_fan17 - Tuesday, March 20 2018 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#354825) #
Orioles to sign Alex Cobb.. $60m/4, reportedly. How does that affect our projections/wild card chances?
dan gordon - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#354827) #
The difference is minimal. Cobb will be going to the minors for the 1st couple of weeks of the season, so he likely misses the 1st Jays' series. That leaves 16 games between Balt and Tor. Minn and LAA have 6 or 7 games with Balt, so a difference of 9 or 10 games. In a 5-man rotation, that means 2 games extra for the Jays to face Cobb instead of somebody like Castro, Wright, Cortez, whoever would have won the job if Cobb wasn't there. Of course, it could be more or less depending on how the schedule and rotations work out, but that would be the average. If Cobb is 1.5 runs per 9 IP better than those guys, then in a 6 inning appearance, you're talking about a difference of 1 run in a game, twice. The loss of Minnesota's SS, Polanco, for half a season due to suspension is a bigger deal in terms of the wild card race. Now, if you think Baltimore has a shot at the wild card with the addition of Cobb, then that's a different story.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 06:49 AM EDT (#354829) #
I agree it does not change much in the playoff race.

Baltimore loses the draft pick and Int'l budget. TB gains a pick. Cobb @ $15mil/yr is ok, seems reasonable. IMO it could have been worse. If he took the QO he gets more this year and is compensation free next year. But a bad/injured 2018 is also a factor for him to consider.
John Northey - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 07:24 AM EDT (#354830) #
I think this might help the Jays in the short and long run. Missing a pick and international money weakens the O's long term while Cobb won't push them over the top anytime soon. The Rays get an extra pick, which they need to have any hope of contending in the future - they need lots of extra picks unless something drastic changes.

The biggest plus is Cobb didn't go to a strong wild card contender who needing more starting pitching. Of course, if the O's have great health and luck this year then this sucks.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#354835) #
What is the opinion on Cobb's $15/yr? Too high too low? I think he got lucky TB could have got him for 1 yr @ 10-12 mil IMO. Except that is probably too expensive for them.

This leads into QO offers to Happ/Estrada if they are eligible and have a good enough 2018.
grjas - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#354836) #
It also weakens TB a team the Jays need to pound to be in the WC hunt.
Chuck - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#354837) #
What is the opinion on Cobb's $15/yr?

At the start of the FA season, it would have seemed in line with what similar pitchers in the past have received. Given the salary squeeze we saw during this FA season, the Cobb contract seems unusually high.

scottt - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 11:53 AM EDT (#354838) #
Estrada already got a QO, but he can probably be resigned to a one year deal every year.
Happ could be a QO target. Stroman, Sanchez and Garcia are here in 2019. It would be OK to leave room for prospects to compete for the last rotation spot.

Cracka - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#354839) #
Cobb's contract is shockingly high, given recent events. Now reported at $57 million guaranteed, making it one of the only contracts to exceed MLBTR's projections (4/48). His closest comparable (Lance Lynn) just signed a $12 million deal. No one else seems interested in giving him 4 years -- it's like the O's were negotiating against themselves. And if you're going to give him this type of offer - why wait until 9 days before opening day? He's now a month behind everyone else, but will likely push himself to be ready quickly (which likely has some associated risk).
bpoz - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 12:26 PM EDT (#354840) #
Different strategies are available to different teams, depending on which team you are.

I enjoy analysing this. So Minnesota added pitching but no FAs that have a QO attached. Budget and penalty probably prevented this.

Philadelphia added to FAs with QOs attached. They must have a plan. Maybe. So 2 draft picks lost and Int'l budget. If they had signed Cobb the 3rd pick then both draft budgets regular and Int'l would be reduced. The Regular draft budget reduction should not be much. They still get their 1st pick which is very high. I don't know if the Int'l budget takes bigger hits the more FAs signed with a QO attached.

The NYY & Boston lets assume are close in winning records to get the ALE 1st place because nobody else is challenging for 1st. Lets assume NYY and Boston do have competition for 1st and both WCs. They always do things to add at the deadline. But this year NYY wants to go under the luxury tax threshold. Will they prioritize the Luxury Tax or making the playoffs.

bpoz - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#354843) #
No word on Tellez? I know that he has been back for 2 weeks or so.

The ST bad news about Pannone and Maese makes me feel that this will be a down year overall for the farm pitching. That was actually my initial reaction. But it has been 1 week since the news.

Harris has 143 IP and SRF 133 IP in AA. They should improve with another 60 IP or so in AA. We have about 10 interesting relievers in AAA and AA that could look good.

There are always good surprises to go along with the bad.
Gerry - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#354844) #
Shi Davidi interviews Mark Shapiro on the Sportsnet site. I found it interesting that 50% of season tickets last year were bought by brokers or touts. Those sales have disappeared for 2018 so ticket sales and attendances will be down unless the Jays make a big push for the playoffs.
John Northey - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#354845) #
I was surprised by the 4 years and the $57 mil for Cobb. Given how bad the market appears for him to get 4 years still and that much guaranteed money is quite the feat and I'm sure players will take note. I'm sure Beverly Hills Sports Council (listed as his agents on B-R) will find a few more clients knocking on their door now.
uglyone - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#354846) #
I still think Cobb would make us better than Garcia, and that it's a very affordable price.....but at the same time there's enough risk in his profile (and not enough upside) that i can't say i'm upset that we signed garcia' s contract instead.
John Northey - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#354850) #
It isn't a straight Cobb vs Garcia but Cobb vs Garcia plus $47 million (roughly a $4 mil difference this year) plus a second round pick this year plus international draft money (critical given the Jays are rumoured to have the #1 player in their pocket).

That is a lot to give up for what could easily be a marginal upgrade. (1.4 bWAR vs 2.3 bWAR ... 2.1 fWAR vs 2.4 fWAR last year, just a 1 year difference in ages).

I see the Jays as getting the better deal here. The O's overspending late when they are desperate for something to sell the fans on.

As to why, check the teams situations. The O's have 3 prospects in the top 100 (Baseball America), the Jays have 2 in the top 10. Easy to see who has a strong future to sell to fans. Jays made the ALCS 2 of the past 3 years. The O's have played 1 playoff game in the past 3 years (lost the WC). Both teams were sub 500 last year. The Jays still have a MVP candidate for one more year in Donaldson with super-prospect Vlad hopefully ready for 2019. The O's are moving their MVP candidate to SS so he can make more as a free agent after this season.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 21 2018 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#354852) #
I like the Shapiro interviews. I have heard a few. I cannot understand a lot.

Legal stuff in Dunedin. ML baseball makes money for everyone. Was he talking about scalpers buying all those tickets? If we win enough to be in pennant races and have playoff success attendance will be healthy. Ticket sales will be boosted by the previous years success and vice versa.

About 3 weeks ago Shapiro was on J Blair. He said SPs are the most valuable position, most expensive FAs and I think he said hardest to trade for.

LAD he said for example have the money to attract SP free agents or resign their own. He also said that they may have the prospects, but I did not understand how exactly.
He said the Jays are not as rich as LAD so we develop our SPs. This meant that we would give a player a longer leash to become a successful SP. He was asked a direct question about Osuna becoming a reliever in 2015 if under his watch. Blair and his co worker expected a definite yes or maybe their question was worded as a yes. Shapiro said that an elite closer is as good or completely acceptable.
John Northey - Thursday, March 22 2018 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#354863) #
Love when old threads show up on the side. Just saw an old top 10 list from post 2012.

Noteworthy....
  • Travis D'Arnaud #1 on all lists
  • #2/3 split evenly between Noah Syndergaard and Aaron Sanchez
  • Roberto Osuna #4 on most, #5 on one, #6 on BP's list
  • Marcus Stroman twice #5, twice #7, plus once each at #8 and #9
  • Daniel Norris often high on lists, as was Sean Nolin and Daniel Norris. D.J. Davis got lots of love too.
  • Everyone was projected to be here by 2017.
  • Gerry predicted about half would flame out. Good call as 5 are regulars or semi in majors.
  • Flame out: Nolin in 2015, Daniel Norris still kicking in Detroit, DJ Davis still in Jays system, hasn't got out of A+ ball, #1 d'Arnaud has cracked 100 games in a season twice and is up to 2.2 WAR lifetime.
uglyone - Thursday, March 22 2018 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#354865) #
"I like the Shapiro interviews. I have heard a few. I cannot understand a lot.


what's so hard to understand about this kind of down to earth straight talk?

""What I can tell you is thereís an understanding from Rogers ownership, top to bottom, that thereís an appreciation of the need as well as an understanding thatís probably one of the biggest levers if not the biggest lever on the Blue Jays business model.""
scottt - Thursday, March 22 2018 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#354869) #
Well, they can't say anything negative about ownership and there isn't much positive to say.
That's not a subject that's going to wield a lot of clear statements.
Obviously, Rogers is the biggest lever on the Blue Jays business model.

John Northey - Thursday, March 22 2018 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#354872) #
One good thing about Rogers is you know they have no real cash flow problems right now so anything that needs doing should be possible if a good business case can be made. Interesting that any changes to the dome are in the hundreds of millions. A smart move might be for the Jays to push for a MLB pooled money for stadium repair/replace that is shared by all. Sadly he kept harping on how every other team gets government subsidies to do anything stadium related. I'm thankful the province and feds won't do that as it is a waste of taxpayer dollars - I'd rather it went to schools and hospitals and if it must go for sport to fields all over instead of just one big playpen for pro athletes.
bpoz - Thursday, March 22 2018 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#354876) #
I am ok with Shapiro. He did have to answer some hard questions. Discussion about the stadium will be on going for about 6 years. I am hearing that the renovation should be done within 6 years or so.

Shapiro said the stadium renovation is not his area/responsibility but ownerships. I thought that was a fair statement. If the renovation results in higher ticket prices, the fans will know. I would not blame Shapiro for that.

He clearly said that pitching is our current strength. My view too. Our strength could change to hitting in the future.
So 2 possible strengths. Houston seems to have both Maybe nobody else. IMO defense is also a strength but clearly much less important. But defense can be a crucial weakness. EE could not play 3B IMO. Some of our recent LFs were very weak defensively but could hit quite well.
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