Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

TDIB 27 August 2008

Well, we actually took one from those pesky Rays...

...but then again, one generally expects a W with Halladay on the mound. The division leaders really made him work for this one, though - Roy threw a very un-Roy 111 pitches in 6 innings. And Cliff Lee kept rolling along with 7 2/3 of 2 run ball, improving to 19-2. Does Halladay have any chance at the Cy? Maybe a more interesting question: who deserves the Cy? Probably Lee, still. But I think you could make a good case for Roy. What's your take, Bauxites?

In NL news, the Phillies overtook the Mets tonight, and it looks to be another exciting race in the NL East. Who's going to take it? Both teams obviously have great offenses and big pitching questions, but I like the Phillies a bit more. Hamels is better than anyone on the Mets, and Grampa Moyer has been a pleasant surprise. Joe Blanton should be a consistent 3 or 4. Brett Myers is a bit of a wild card, and Kyle Kendrick looks like a ticking time bomb, but I still like the Phillies pitching more, especially since their bullpen has been very good.

Posted by Dave Rutt on Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 02:07 AM EDT.

TDIB 27 August 2008 | 32 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

The_Game - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:49 AM EDT (#191341) #

As much as I don't like saying it considering this has probably been Roy Halladay's best season ever, to this point in the season Cliff Lee deserves to win the Cy Young. And he'll get it, barring some kind of major collapse.

There has been a lot of talk on ESPN about K-Rod having a chance to win it, too, however. For that reason, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Halladay come 3rd in the voting, especially if he doesn't reach the 20 win plateau.

Thomas - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 06:34 AM EDT (#191342) #

The guys on the Tampa broadcast made a fun little point last night. If you take out their starts against the Devil Rays, Halladay has a lower ERA than Lee and only one less win (well, two after yesterday). Doc's had a fantastic year, but it's looking less and less likely Lee will collapse over the final month and allow Doc back into the race. Maybe he should send the Rays a thank-you basket full of goodies.

AWeb - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 07:32 AM EDT (#191343) #

Lee still deserves the award at this point, though Halladay's extra innings do close the gap. Lee has a better ERA, and has also allowed fewer unearned runs (only 3 for Lee, 9 for Halladay), which makes the gap a litttle larger than the ERA listings show. They have remarkably similar peripheral numbers. Lee is way ahead in WPA (fangraphs.com), which I imagine reflects his great performance in close games leading to wins for himself and his team. As useless as the Win-Loss stat can be, I have no problem using it as a sort of "tie-breaker" when two pitchers are are close as Halladay and Lee.

Rodriguez hasn't even been the best closer in the league. 50 saves and 5 blown saves, 2.60 ERA, 10K/9IP, these aren't Cy Young reliever numbers, they reflect an unusually high number of chances (Rivera is 31/32 this year). If Rodriguez breaks the Saves record, well, so what? The immortal Bobby Thigpen only finished fourth the year he set the record. I'm hoping that Thigpen holds onto his record, just to emphasize how little Saves can mean.

zeppelinkm - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#191344) #

Its been incredible to watch Halladay take his game up a level this year from the previous two years. That being said, Lee does deserve this Cy Young, if it were awarded today. Which is saying something. The difference between Doc and Lee is that this is, more then likely, Lee's "without question, best season ever" whereas this season is not that much of an abberation for Doc. The also flashed a stat last night showing that in his Cy Young season, Doc received over 6 runs of support a game.

Would he even have 1 loss this year if he had received 6 runs of support a start?

Frank Markotich - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#191351) #

By the way, can somebody please explain to Jamie Campbell that if you swing at and miss a pitch that hits you, it's a strike.

parrot11 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#191353) #

Maybe he should send the Rays a thank-you basket full of goodies.

Torii Hunter tried that once before and it did not go too well for him. I get it that you're joking, but the funny thing is that it's been tried before. I guess you have to do it anonymously or something.

Glevin - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#191354) #

" If Rodriguez breaks the Saves record, well, so what? "

Yes, I mean any stat that was lead last year by Joe Borowski can hardly be indicitive of anything. Lee has a fairly sizable lead IMO, not just because of his numbers but because he is 19-2 on a team that is 64-67. That in itself is absurd. Halladay is easily second though and really the only one with any hope of catching Lee.

Jevant - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#191360) #

I'm not sure if it's been said here or not, but K-Rod hasn't been the most important pitcher on his own team, and hasn't even been the best reliever on his own team. To award him the Cy for racking up easy saves would be ridiculous. Not to suggest that it hasn't been done before, but it would be absurd if K-Rod beat out either Lee or Halladay.

greenfrog - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#191369) #

You can't say enough about Doc's season. He's been unbelievably consistent and seems in total command of his game (and has regained his status as a true power pitcher). Watching him pitch is one of the true pleasures of being a Jays fan. I agree that Lee deserves the Cy Young, at this point anyway, but Roy is close behind. He's also come in for his share of high praise from opposing players and managers this season, mostly along the lines of "he's the best starter in baseball" or "he's one of the premier pitchers in baseball."

Impossibles - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#191370) #

I wouldn't worry too much about K-Rod getting too many Cy Young votes. Gagne didn't win the Cy Young just because of the save streak, he won it because it was one of the best seasons for a MLB pitcher ever. 1.20 ERA, 15 k/9, 4.04 hits/9 (!!!), 0.69 WHIP, 2 HR in 82.1 innings. (strange how he pitched exactly 82.1 for 3 years in a row starting in 03). None of K-Rod's peripherals are eye raising aside from the saves category.

As much as I'd love Doc to win another Cy Young, if I was voting, I would have to give Lee the nod. Here's hoping he implodes in September!

Impossibles - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#191371) #

bluejays.com has an article talking about how Rolen has retooled his swing due to the shoulder injury. He's going to hold the bat lower and have a shorter swing. Oh joy, a slap hitting 32 year old corner infielder...just what this team needed.

Time to start the 'I hope Rolen retires in the offseason' discussions?

Ozzieball - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#191373) #

<blockquote> As much as I'd love Doc to win another Cy Young, if I was voting, I would have to give Lee the nod. Here's hoping he implodes in September! </blockquote>

If you were voting you wouldn't be posting here because the internets hide all sorts of terrible ghosts and ghouls which destroy the spirit of baseball.

You can make a reasonable case for Halladay based around xFIP, K/9, and dipping into DIPS, but by the voters he'll probably finish around 4th/5th behind some cominationg of K-Rod (SAVES), Lee (WINS), and Matsuzaka (WINS/SAWX). They probably won't even consider ERA or strikeouts.

Check out the 2005 AL Cy Young voting, or the 2004 NL Cy Young voting. Sometimes people fail to appreciate just how dumb the BBWAA are.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#191374) #

Is anyone else following this Pedro Alvarez situation?

http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080827&content_id=3375888&vkey=news_pit&fext=.jsp&c_id=pit

Good on the Bucks for standing up to Boras (who's hiding behind the MLBPA), I personally like the part where they attempt to strain his relationship with Eric Hosmer by stating that his contract could be affected by the Alvarez situation.

Anyway the holding out for better bonuses thing is getting ridiculous and slows players development. Apparently Boras wouldn't even sit down before Aug 14 (presumably he wanted to know what everyone else got). Thank God the Jays scout signability so well (look how far Cooper has come while Alvarez has sat on his couch).

Down the line- MLB said they would stand by the bucs but how far will they go? Personally I think that they should award the Pirates the comp pick they'd be entitled to if he hadn't signed, but still uphold the positioning on the restricted list. I'm sure that violates any number of CBA provisions, but that kind of treatment would castrate Boras and ultimately be good for the game.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#191375) #

Random note: any idea if anyone in Tampa knows the Rays are going to the playoffs (most likely)?

A 3 1/2 game lead on Boston for the AL East, but just 13,478 bought tickets for last nights game. After a 10 game road trip they played the Angels and had just 15-19k show up per game. At the start of August (3 games up) they played 6 straight and had just 2 over 30k and 1 under 20k - peak was 36,048 vs Detroit on a Saturday. From the looks of it 36,048 is the most they can hold now though (weird as it was 45k) which they've hit 5 times.

For contrast, the Jays cracked 40k 9 times (over 50 opening day), 14 times had more than the Rays can hold, just 6 times below 20k. Tampa's average is 21,335 vs Toronto's 29,257. The Jays have been above Tampa's average 56 times and below it 10 times. Tampa has been above Toronto's average 18 times, below it 48 times.

Somehow it doesn't seem fair eh? No fans but a great team. FYI: The Jays are now 6th in per game attendance, the Rays 3rd from the bottom (Oakland and KC lower, but by less than 1k per game). The Jays are actually in eyeshot of contender Chicago and well ahead of Minnesota and Tampa (playoff possible teams).

Now, before the Jays get too excited about fan support - all but 3 NL teams have more per game than the Jays (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Florida). Washington is in eyeshot at 29,929 despite a new park (stinking does drive fans away). It would take nearly 38k per game to move into 6th in the NL (Milwaukee).

Attendance markers
50k plus: Yankees & Mets (1993 last time for the Jays)
40k plus: Dodgers, Phillies, Cardinals, Angels, and Cubs (1994 last time for the Jays)
30k plus: Tigers, Brewers, Red Sox, Astros, Giants, Rockies, Atlanta, White Sox, Padres, Diamondbacks (Jays last time was 1998)
20k plus: everyone else but Florida (includes Jays)
under 20k: Florida who are at 16,279 despite being an unexpected contender most of this year (Jays last were here in '82 although just avoided it in 2002)

So, for good seats to a winner go to Florida, land of good baseball and horrible fan support (Miami due to team dumping everyone but the owner last winter, Tampa due to never winning 70 in a season before now).

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#191376) #

Alternatively I guess, Boras could just be worried that Alvarez won't be able to pass a physical and is trying to give him time to heal.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#191377) #

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#191378) #

John... I agree that its strange for Alvarez. For one thing he'd make the 200K back if he just took the 6 mil bonus and invested it for a year rather than sitting out.

As for him forcing a trade, Pittsburgh would really have to take a stand on that or it would completely defeat the purpose of the draft and set competitive balance back even further.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#191380) #

Seems we have a battle between what is good for the individual vs what is good for the group in two ways with Alvarez vs the Pirates.

Good for individual...
Sign deal and start playing no matter what - helps both Pittsburgh and Alvarez in both the short and long run if you look at just this transaction

Good for group...
Don't sign deal. For future kids coming up it shows that MLB must negotiate in good faith (giving an offer day one and not changing it no matter what is not good faith negotiating) and should lead to higher bonuses. For MLB it shows that if you try to back out of a deal you will be prevented from having a career.

What would be best...
For MLB: set up fixed level for bonus/etc for kids signing out of the draft
For Players: kill draft off entirely and let the free market take over, teams sign kids based on bonus level and on opportunity (would you sign with St Louis if you were a first baseman no matter what they offered in cash?). Fears of the Yankees signing all prospects is a non-issue as top kids won't always sign there since a SS/3B would be an idiot to sign there as they'll never get to play (for example).
For Fans: keep the current mess as it provides lots of articles and debate for us die hards and the average fan really couldn't care less one way or the other - FYI: the amount players make has no influence on ticket prices, unless NCAA Div I teams have started giving away tickets for free recently.

parrot11 - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#191381) #

Alvarez looks really bad here. If the contract isn't good then he is not signed and goes back into the draft for 2009 thus loses $6 million and a year plus in development time. To fight over $200k (or 3% of the contract value) seems silly as the risk ($6 million) vs reward ($200k) seems way out of whack.

As for him forcing a trade, Pittsburgh would really have to take a stand on that or it would completely defeat the purpose of the draft and set competitive balance back even further.

A few issues to clarify/address. Alvarez can't be traded until a min of 6 months after he's signed (that's as a PTBNL). The Pirates have placed him on the restricted list, which if I've read Baseball America's information correctly allows the Pirates to retain his right ad infinitum as long as he continues to holdout. This is more of an NFL-style holdout more than anything. IMO, Alvarez needs to put his foot down and honor his agreement. Boras might be the most powerful agent in the sport, but he still works for Alvarez and not the other way around.

Thomas - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#191384) #

The Pirates have placed him on the restricted list, which if I've read Baseball America's information correctly allows the Pirates to retain his right ad infinitum as long as he continues to holdout.

That is correct, AFAIK. Theoretically, the Pirates could leave Alvarez on their restricted list for five years if he refused to sign his contract. It will be quite interesting to watch how this situation develops, as if it isn't resolved quickly (presumably by Alvarez firing Boras or going around him to sign the contract) it could result in significant legal action.

TamRa - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#191385) #

Time to start the 'I hope Rolen retires in the offseason' discussions?

Call me crazy but I think I'll wait and see how it works for him.

Flex - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#191386) #

You know, a look at those attendance numbers (thanks John) makes me think that there's something magical about the 30K mark that might spell the difference between Ricciardi going or staying. If they can get above it, they can argue he's been good for attendance at least. If not, he might be toast.

That would explain the organization-wide (including broadcasters) refusal to admit that they're out of it. If they could just eek above 30k with a few great September games, they might just save Mr. Ricciardi's job.

scottt - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#191388) #

Time to start the 'I hope Rolen retires in the offseason' discussions?

Call me crazy but I think I'll wait and see how it works for him.

Not very well, I guess, since Scutaro is still playing at third base while Rolen is on the bench.

lexomatic - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#191391) #

WOW Purcey has 11 Ks in the 6th on 70 pitches???
i hope this isn't a career game but more of a sign of things to come

scottt - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#191392) #

8.0 IP 5 H 1 ER 0 BB 11 K and he gets tagged with another loss.

Nolan - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#191393) #

The last two games that I've been able to watch in full have been Purcey's gem and the extra inning loss to Boston.

While I can appreciate the beauty of a well played game, give me a Jays blow out any day; watching Rios' and Barajas' blasts caught at the top of the wall have been a little too painful to watch.

On the plus side, Purcey was a joy to watch tonight, his curveball is amazingly effective when he consistently gets ahead with the fastball.

Wildrose - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#191394) #

You know, a look at those attendance numbers (thanks John) makes me think that there's something magical about the 30K mark that might spell the difference between Ricciardi going or staying

I'm not so sure, here's what Godfrey said about the attendance yesterday.

While he hopes his team can make a serious run for the playoffs deep into September, Godfrey is happy that attendance at the Rogers Centre has been strong.

Bolstered by large turnouts for the recent three-game Boston series, which totalled just less than 130,000, Godfrey said the Jays are on pace to draw about 2.45 million fans this season, up from 2.3 million last season.

A few weeks ago, William Houston stated the television numbers were up 15 % from last season.

As a fan most of us look at this season as being somewhat of a let down. I think Rogers looks at it differently. They would view this season as being a success as both attendance and television viewership are on the rise, thus generating more revenue. Given these developments I think Ricciardi is safe.

In the story Godfrey goes to great lengths to describe how the Jays are still in it. Given the focus on the bottom line this is not surprising. This team does a good job of spending just enough money to remain on the periphery of contention while generating just enough interest in the team to turn a tidy profit .

King Ryan - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#191397) #

I never thought I'd see the day where David Purcey threw 8 innings against a quality MLB club and did not issue a walk. Impressive.

Timbuck2 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#191406) #

I never thought I would see the day we would be describing the Rays as a quality club....

TamRa - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 06:54 AM EDT (#191411) #

Time to start the 'I hope Rolen retires in the offseason' discussions?

Call me crazy but I think I'll wait and see how it works for him.

Not very well, I guess, since Scutaro is still playing at third base while Rolen is on the bench.

On the second day after activation!

Shocking!!!

Cito said he intended to start him every day until he proved he couldn't handle it, but for whatever reason (probably for him to get some major league batting practice) would hold him back the first two games.

Gotta love the snap judgments among fans sometimes.

BTW, the league average 3B has a .770 OPS - as much as I'd like to have "Rolen-in-his-prime", if he does turn out to be a .790 hitter or so with that glove, he's still a keeper IMO.

John Northey - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 08:18 AM EDT (#191414) #

So TV viewership is up 15% and fannies in the seat by 6.5%. Payroll is up 19.6% based on Cot's Contracts. This suggests to me that JP is safe for now, but that payroll will not climb another 15% but more like 5-10% next year. That puts it in the $102-$107 range. Of course, that isn't factoring in ad rate climbs for TV or ticket price climbing or the low $ bonus' to draft picks or how the higher dollar is affecting things for Rogers bottom line. Mixed together though I'd have to think the Jays made more in 2008 than in 2007. To Rogers (and pretty much any company) that is what matters most thus they will have no interest in eating the rest of JP's contract.

whiterasta80 - Thursday, August 28 2008 @ 09:18 AM EDT (#191419) #

Someone on the Pittsburgh forum yesterday said the restricted list is for 2 years not 5- but its still long enough to stall Alvarez's career if he actually goes through with this.

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