Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
The 2005 Met team performed about as expected, scoring 722 runs and allowing 648, but posting only 83 wins, despite the solid run differential. Like the Jays, the Mets responded this off-season by upgrading the bullpen, with the acquisition of Billy Wagner the highlight. Wagner’s arrival, along with the fire sale acquisition of Carlos Delgado from the Marlins, have fans of the lesser New Yorkers feeling as optimistic as they can be. Will it be enough to end the Braves’ dynasty?

It was a busy off-season for the Mets. The big news was the signing of free agent Wagner to a long-term contract, and the trade of Mike Jacobs and Yusmeiro Petit to Florida for Carlos Delgado. Less noticed was the trade of Mike Cameron to San Diego for Xavier Nady, and the acquisition of bullpen support for Wagner in the form of Duaner Sanchez, Steve Schmoll and Chad Bradford. Then, 47 year old Julio Franco was signed to a 2 year contract. Finally Anna Benson and her husband were shipped to Baltimore for Jorge Julio and pitching prospect John Maine. What does it all mean?

The Offence

The Mets enter spring training with their starting lineup set, save for a battle between Xavier Nady and Victor Diaz for the right-fielder's job, replacing Mike Cameron. Carlos Beltran and Cliff Floyd will complete the outfield, with David Wright, Jose Reyes, Kaz Matsui and Carlos Delgado making up the infield. Paul Lo Duca catches. It's a lineup with an impressive power core, but no natural leadoff and #2 hitters, although Beltran could be productively used in the #2 slot and Reyes might end up as a useful leadoff man of the Lou Brock type, although probably not in 2006. Some have suggested a different lineup, perhaps Beltran, Wright, Nady/Diaz, Delgado, Floyd, Reyes, Lo Duca, Matsui. It's interesting, but not likely to happen, I think.

Chris Woodward, the Franco whose condition is not yet grave, Jose Valentin, Endy Chavez, the loser of the Nady/Diaz battle and backup catcher Ramon Castro figure to make up an adequate bench. Here's how the offence stacks up according to Marcel the Monkey:

Hitter       PA    H     2b   3b  Hr   W    K     SB   CS   HBP  GIDP   OBP   SLUG
Delgado      563   134   31   2   28   67   110   1    1    1    12    .359  .532
Wright       557   151   34   2   23   52   88    13   4    2    13    .366  .522
Beltran      596   143   27   5   22   62   86    26   4    5    8     .352  .472
Floyd        559   131   26   2   24   55   98    10   2    9    9     .349  .471
Diaz         362   88    19   3   13   32   78    6    2    3    12    .340  .420
Castro       202   48    10   1   5    17   32    3    1    2    5     .332  .414
Franco       369   88    17   2   9    33   73    3    1    3    7     .336  .412
Nady         386   93    17   2   12   26   68    4    2    6    9     .324  .427
LoDuca       507   125   25   2   8    34   45    3    3    6    17    .325  .389
Reyes        589   157   26   10  8    27   69    40   8    2    6     .316  .410
Valentin     342   66    14   2   14   33   76    5    3    3    5     .298  .419
Matsui       398   95    19   3   6    27   67    9    2    4    4     .317  .375
Woodward     319   75    17   2   5    22   62    2    2    3    5     .313  .384
Chavez       320   76    13   3   4    19   34    1    4    1    10    .300  .336
The totals here are 6069 plate appearances, which would be typical for a team over a season, however the team’s pitchers will normally account for about 300 plate appearances; 150 plate appearances can safely be taken from each of Endy Chavez and Julio Franco. The Mets might reasonably hope to get more than 557 plate appearances from David Wright, but would probably be quite happy to get 559 from Cliff Floyd. In the result, the team OBP figures to be about .330. The team’s slugging percentage figures to be about .435, and they figure to score about 780 runs, or roughly 60 more than last year.

The Pitching Staff

The top 4 of the Mets’ rotation promises to be Pedro Martinez, Tom Glavine, Steve Trachsel and Victor Zambrano. John Maine and Aaron Heilman figure to battle for the 5th slot (replacing Kris Benson and Jae-Weung Seo), with the loser of that battle joining a re-cast bullpen featuring Steve Schmoll and Chad Bradford behind Wagner. Others who may contribute at some point in 2006 include Duaner Sanchez, Royce Ring, Heath Bell, Dae-Sung Koo and Jose Lima. Maine was acquired from the Orioles in the Benson deal. His overall minor league record suggests that he is indeed quite a good pitcher, who struggled in a difficult situation in Ottawa, much like Heilman endured in 2004 in triple A. I would expect Heilman to start the season in the #5 slot, with Maine in the bullpen, but I would be surprised if both are not in the rotation by season's end.

Here are the 2006 MARCEL figures for the pitching staff:

Pitcher     IP    H     R     ER   ERA   HR   K    W
Wagner      69    53    24    21   2.87  7    67   20
Martinez    190   159   72    69   3.22  18   182  51
Heilman     90    84    43    41   4.00  9    77   35
Sanchez     74    74    35    32   4.07  8    55   28
Glavine     187   201   87    81   4.08  16   96   62
Bradford    43    43    21    19   4.08  4    27   14
Ring        30    30    15    14   4.20  3    23   13
Trachsel    99    101   50    45   4.27  12   59   37
Zambrano    153   146   77    70   4.29  14   113  80
Schmoll     48    48    26    24   4.41  5    34   19
Bell        5     54    27    26   4.41  5    42   16
Maine       74    74    43    40   4.74  11   49   30


The Marcel figures do not take into account changes in team defence behind the pitchers, nor change of location or league for the pitchers. The Mets have made a couple of changes, which figure to result in somewhat less efficient defence in 2006. Xavier Nady for Mike Cameron in right field will likely the cost the team 5-10 runs. Carlos Delgado is at this point in his career a below average defender, but he is replacing Mike Piazza who wasn’t exactly Keith Hernandez with the glove. On the positive side, Billy Wagner’s move from a tougher environment for a pitcher and John Maine’s move from a tougher league likely mean that they will do a little better than Marcel projects. Overall, though, the Marcel figures to be accurate for the pitching staff as a whole, save for playing time, which I will discuss below.

So, what are the totals? 520 runs allowed, 1108 IP. There’s a missing 340 innings there. The leading candidates to supply those missing innings are Heilman (who Marcel knows as primarily a reliever and will likely start), Trachsel and Maine. I am projecting between 4.5 and 5 runs per game allowed for those missing innings, which will result in team runs allowed of between 695 and 715 runs allowed, 50-70 runs more than in 2005. Ouch. It looks like the loss of Benson, Seo and Petit in the off-season will sting more than I thought. Worse yet, Marcel's projection of 190 innings pitched for Pedro Martinez, looks, as of this point, to be a tad optimistic in light of his foot injury.

The Outlook

The Mets Pythagorean W-L last year was 89-73, and their projected run differential would suggest a similar record for 2006. The addition of Wagner, and the overall strength of the bullpen suggests to me that they might beat the projection by a game or two. I’ve marked the Mets down for 90 wins. The Braves will feel the loss of Furcal and Mazzone, and the Phillies should be good. I make this a 3 team race, with the Mets very much in it. The players to watch: the 23 year old Reyes, Beltran, Heilman and Maine.

The team's medium term position will depend on finances. There is a good core of young position players in Reyes, Wright and Lastings Milledge, who turns 21 in April and should be ready by 2007, along with Beltran, who should be productive for at least the next 3-4 years. On the pitching side, the news is not as good. Aaron Heilman, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey and Pedro Martinez could form the basis of a good rotation in 2008, but the Mets would be lucky if this happened. After Pelfrey and Milledge, the Mets' farm system is pretty much bare after the off-season moves.
2006 New York Mets of Flushing preview | 7 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Gerry - Sunday, March 05 2006 @ 11:48 AM EST (#141870) #
How bad is Pedro's toe? I know he pulled out of the World Cup and it bothered him last year too. It sounds to me like it won't get better unless he can change his delivery, which must be difficult to do at his age. The rest of the pitching staff doesn't inspire confidence. Glavine, Trachsel and Zambrano are average at best, while Heilman does have promise. The Mets need good seasons from these guys or they will have to slug their way to wins.
Glevin - Sunday, March 05 2006 @ 12:21 PM EST (#141872) #
How much better would this team look with Kazmir instead of Zambrano. I'm still scratching my head over that one. Anyone else notice how Loduca just keeps following Piazza. LA, Fla, and now NY. I forsee a move to S.D. with two years. I'm tempted to say that the Mets are the best team in the NL right now on paper, but their pitching is pretty iffy. They have a very strong lineup though.

"Carlos Delgado is at this point in his career a below average defender, but he is replacing Mike Piazza who wasn’t exactly Keith Hernandez with the glove."

Piazza didn't play 1B at all last year. Many people thought he was probably the worst defensive 1Bman they had ever seen. Mientkiewicz, Jacobs, and Woodward got most of the playing time in 2005. Piazza to Lo Duca is a massive upgrade defensively at C though.
Gitz - Sunday, March 05 2006 @ 12:51 PM EST (#141874) #
Apparently the Mets were convinved that Kazmir's left elbow was fragile, that it would snap at a certain point -- a "not if but when" scenario. There were also reports of drug and/or alcohol use.

That still doesn't quite explain Victor Zambrano.

The Mets should -- should -- be better in 2006. But I'm picking the Braves. Who are we to keep picking against them?
Mike Green - Sunday, March 05 2006 @ 05:17 PM EST (#141878) #
Thanks for the correction, Glevin. Piazza, of course, played first in 2004.

There were a number of similarities between the Met off-season and the Jay one. The Mets won 83 in 2005 and fell short of their Pythagorean by 6 games; the Jays won 80 in 2005 and fell short of their Pythagorean by 7 games. Both acquired a top-flight closer (Wagner/Ryan) and a big bat (Delgado/Glaus), and gave up some defence (Cameron/Hudson), and some pitching depth (Benson, Seo, Petit/Bush, Jackson). There are a few differences, as well, but the results, more runs scored and allowed, should be fairly similar. The question is how many of each for both teams.
dp - Sunday, March 05 2006 @ 05:55 PM EST (#141879) #
Mike-

I'd say that the Mets aren't really giving up much D this year- according to what I've read, Cameron wasn't very good in RF plus he was injured a lot last year. I don't think having him in RF had that much of an impact on their pitching, esp. compared to Hudson's impacted on the Jay's staff.

Also, WRT Piazza- he's not a bad defender. He's hoorible at throwing out baserunners, but this is only part of a catcher's job. He's good at calling games, which I think is a more important skill. LoDuca from all reports seems like someone pitchers like working with as well.

Their core is scary. Delgado, Wright and Floyd are great, and a return to form by Beltran (he played hurt much of last season) would be gravy. I could see them winning 95 games, but a lot would have to break right. They're saying all the right things to Reyes this spring- telling him to learn the strike zone and walk more. His bat is quick enough for him to do it, and he's so young that there's oom for him to develop a lot. When you have two players around 23 with superstar potential, it's hard to predict- if Wright takes another step forward and Reyes tacks 30 or 40 points on his OB%, it won't matter how mediocre the pitching is.

As a Mets and Jays fan, I'm happy to get to cheer for Delgado again.
zeppelinkm - Monday, March 06 2006 @ 10:13 AM EST (#141897) #
Mike,

Do you really think the Jays will give up more runs this year? I know Hill for Hudson is going to weaken the defence, but Glaus when fully healthy is a fine defensive player, albeit not as good as Koskie, but Koskie only played 60% of the year last year. Additionally, Halladay missed 15 or so starts last year.

I feel that with Halladay healthy for a full year, Burnett, Ryan, and (at least I'm expecting) improvements from Lilly and Towers, it seems to me like they should allow fewer runs to be scored against them this year. As well, they have Overbay at first, and he's gotta be an upgrade over the platoon used last year.

That's my $0.02, but I'd love to hear yours, or anyone else who thinks the Jays will allow more runs this year, just because I had been thinkin the opposite lately!
Mike Green - Monday, March 06 2006 @ 10:44 AM EST (#141901) #
It is a Batter's Box tradition to end the previews with a Jays roundtable (Here is what we said last year). We will continue the tradition this year, although hopefully not on April Fools Day. Whenever it happens, you can be sure that the Jay pitching and defence will get a close look.
2006 New York Mets of Flushing preview | 7 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.