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Time for a new thread.

In Today's Sun:
* The Jays have made an offer to Giles, expect a decision by Friday, and the GM says, "I think our chances are 50-50".

* There's interest from several teams in Miguel Batista.

In the Star:

* A Ricciardi extension is likely, but not imminent. Said the President, "Look, J.P.'s not going anywhere. I like him and he likes working with me and if we do decide to do it, it won't take long."

* The Jays have not made an official offer on Burnett yet.

* All arbitration eligible players are still planned to be given contracts.

The ever reliable Jeff Blair has an update. He writes that a major league source believes that Burnett currently has no 5 year contracts on the table and makes a guess that the Jays would offer four years with a vesting option.

Other items of interest:

* Billy Wagner got a no-trade guarantee in his contract.

* Konerko is visiting the Angels and it looks like a two horse race between the Angels and White Sox.

* The Yankees are getting close to a deal with Kyle Farnsworth.

* The Phillies locked up Abraham Nunez to a 2 year, $3.35 million contract.

* Furcal is likely to sign prior to the winter meetings. The Cubs are the frontrunners.

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Nick - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:38 AM EST (#133727) #
Per SportsCenter, Konerko turned down 5/$65 million from Baltimore.
PeterG - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:16 AM EST (#133733) #
I can't see him going to Baltimore. I think he will sign with the Angels. If so, it opens up a couple of things to the Jays. Probably narrows down the bidding for Giles to Jays and Dodgers. I thought last Sunday that we would pass on Burnett and persue Giles. I believe that this has happened and that there is a better than 50/50 chance JP will sign Giles.

Secondly, if Konerko signs with the Angels, it frees up Kotchman for a trade, very possibly to the Jays who will probably offer Gus in return, perhaps with an of.
huckamaniac - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:23 AM EST (#133738) #
Does anyone have anythoughts on what the Jays are going to with Bush? I know he was a closer in college maybe he's better suited for the pen. Does he have any trade value? Also, have the Jays given up on League? I'd personally like to see them send him to Syracuse and develop him as a set up man to take over Fraser's role whenever Speier leaves.
Kieran - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:32 AM EST (#133740) #
I know it's a pipe dream...but is there anyway the Jays could sign both Burnett AND Giles? If their combined salaries are approximately $22M, the team would have to clear about $10M in salary to make room for them. This could be accomplished by dealing Batista, Lilly, Hinske/Hillenbrand - although there's the issue then of paying the guy whom is acquired via trade...

I just start salivating when I think of the Jays being involved in 3 of the top FAs this offseason.
Sherrystar - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:56 AM EST (#133744) #
I think the Jays are trying hard for all 3 FA's... it's exciting times in Jayland!

Did anyone else hear Wilner on the FAN last night? Although I didn't catch it and don't like to start rumours, my brother told me he was saying that a tp Jays official had told him to "have his phone on" all week as things are going to happen. Wilner mentioned that if J.P. got all 3 FA's he wanted, he would then consider moving Lilly, Batista etc. He also mentioend something about Hudson for Dunn? And if they got Dunn they'd need to shed some salary and thus certain outfielders would need to go?

Wilner seems well connected. Did anyone else listen last night? ny thoughts?
Mark - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:12 AM EST (#133750) #
I would have to believe Bush has value. It depends on whether you would rather have a pitcher who throws 5-6 innings giving up 2-3 runs pretty much every game (Chacin) or someone who can give you 8-9 shutout/one run innings one game and then not make it to the fifth the next. (Bush) Bush is extremely inconsistent. I guess the answer would probably be you would want the consistent pitcher. However, Bush is young and if he can work on his consistency I think he can top out as a number 2 starter. I also think as of right now he is a member of the rotation on 70% of teams in the league. Probably Bush's future is not in Toronto, as it appears there is something going on between him and Gibbons.
Kieran - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:14 AM EST (#133751) #
My understanding is that Bush and Gibbons put their issues behind them...Bush actually admitted that he was immature in handling the situation. My worries is that Bush's K/IP ratios are not all that impressive. I still like him, I just project him as a #4.
timpinder - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:18 AM EST (#133753) #
huckamaniac,
I've wondered what they're going to do with Bush too. He's much better than is record and second year ERA implies. He's had a 1.23 and 1.25 WHIP in his 1.5 seasons here which is above league average, especially for a rookie pitcher. My thinking is that, assuming Chacin and Lilly stay put, he'll be their man in the long relief role with McGowan going to AAA where he can start regularly and regain his command. I'd love to see J.P. deal Chacin, insert Bush, and wait until McGowan is ready to come up and dominate. Chacin's stock is the highest it will ever be in my opinion, Bush's stock is at it's lowest. Bush is going to get better, Chacin is going to get a lot worse. Chacin has bullpen written all over him and now is the Jays chance to trade Chacin and pull a "Luke Prokupec" deal on another team and get value in return.

As for the possibility of obtaining Dunn, I would think that would only be feasible if Giles signed elsewhere since Dunn's going to cost $8-9 million with arbitration. Here's hoping though.
Jordan - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:27 AM EST (#133755) #
Bush has value only to the Blue Jays at this point, and I think he's a good candidate to surprise in 2006. Whether he starts off in the pen or the rotation will depend on how the rest of the pitching staff comes together over the off-season, but I do think he'll be a Jay next season -- his trade value would likely be only at the throw-in level right now, and he's a more valuable arm than that.
Jorge Bell - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:30 AM EST (#133756) #
I heard Wilner on the FAN last night with Bill Hayes (sp?) I think it was.

He was saying that it would be possible for the Jays to get both Giles and Burnett as they have a lot of pieces (he mentioned Batista, Lilly and Hinske specifically) to move should they want to.

He also mentioned that there's no way he does the McGowan for Overbay deal, from the Jays perspective and how Roy and McGowan were seen as potentially starters 1 and 1A before McGowan had his TJ surgery last year.

He also talked about Dunn, and how it wouldn't be possible to get him if Giles and Burnett were signed. Talked about the possibility of Hudson for Dunn but it sounded more like speculation on his part rather than an actual rumour.

He then talked about the winter meetings and how the Jays are in an enviable position as they have extra pitching to trade and that's what all GM's want at the moment. He expects the Jays to be very active in the meetings.

That's about all I can remember at the moment.
Sherrystar - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:40 AM EST (#133758) #
I agree with Wilner. I wouldn't trade McGowan unless I got something spectacular in return.

The next week should be very interesting... and exciting for Blue Jays fans! I'll keep checking back here to see if there any breaking news! (That's how I found out about the BJ Ryan signing!)
subculture - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:58 AM EST (#133762) #
I don't know why Chacin is getting so many grim reviews... he's not only performed above expectations, shown he's better in clutch situations, but is still young and a LEFTY. He puts his team in a position to win almost every time, and would have won at least 3 more games with a better hitting team. Plus, he's got such cool sunglasses :)

I like Bush too, and think of him as a Dave Stieb with not-as-good stuff. I think of Chacin as a Jimmy Key with BETTER stuff. In my mind, both are #3 pitchers on most good teams. However I give the edge to Chacin b/c he seems to be able to make that quality pitch at the right time to get that double play and end the inning. And he'll get even better as umps around the league expect that control from him. With Bush's attitude (which I like, but think most umps don't), I don't have that confidence in him yet.
sweat - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:06 PM EST (#133765) #
I think everyones problem with Chacin is they all think he has peaked in his first season, and that not only can he not get better, he will get worse. I think it's an understandable opinion, but I dont think a lot of other GM's are gonna trade for Chacin as if he is gonna repeat that year for the next 10 years. Unless we can trade Chacin for something very good, it would likely be a waste to move him at this point. Chacin has 3 important things that suggest he will continue to put up an era around 4.00. 1) Control, Chacin hits his spot, that bottom outside corner consistantly which makes righties ground out weakly to the left side, and lefties roll over and hit the ball foul. He doesn't seem to miss this spot that often. 2) He is left handed. 3) He has confidence in himself. This makes it hard for him to be thrown off his game. I'd like to see him stick around, and I think if the Jays do get AJ, it will be Lilly and Batista that go out the door.
Twilight - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:08 PM EST (#133766) #
I think Chacin still has upside, but he has to work on his control. He walked a lot of batters, which isn't due to stuff but location. I think if he can improve his fastball command, and can make the pitch where he needs to, you'll see better numbers yet.
rtcaino - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:15 PM EST (#133768) #
I think it is more his peripherals that don't bode well for future success. Being lefty, being clutch, and getting key double plays are not what I would want to base future success on. Apart form being lefty, the other two things can be attributed to dumb luck which could run out at any time.

I mean a 1.39 whip isn’t ideal. Neither is a 1.73 bb/k.
jsut - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:17 PM EST (#133769) #
Sometimes Chacin reminds me of Escobar (or Batista for that matter) in that he can't throw a strike until he's already gone 2-0 on a guy.
Pistol - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:20 PM EST (#133771) #
I think Bush would have a lot of value to some team. He has a 111 ERA+ in 234 innings over 40 starts and his service time can't be much more than 1 year right now. Estaban Loiaza has one year in his career with an ERA+ over 111 and he just signed for $7 million/year (and the loss of a 1st rounder).

And there's apparently many teams interested in Batista for 1 year at nearly $5 million. Bush will be cheaper than that over the next 3 years combined. I would think most people would prefer Bush, not even considering the salary.

There's a little more uncertainty with Bush given that he only has 234 innings pitched at the major league level, but he's dirt cheap for the next two years and will still be a bargain for the three years after that. That's worth a lot in my eyes.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:21 PM EST (#133772) #
Another advantage to having Chacin is that he's extremely cheap, thereby offsetting any big contracts, such as Giles/Burnett/Dunn, that JP adds.
Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#133773) #
I heard Wilner - he was just on the FAN about 20 minutes ago (11:30am'ish). Said the following:

1. Wouldn't be surprised to see both Burnett and Giles end up here.

2. Thinks a Dunn for ODog deal is in the making - we have extra middle IF's and no corner OF's - Cincy is in the opposite situation.

3. Thinks Lilly, Batista & Hinske will be gone to clear salary for the incoming players (mentioned specifically that they combine for over $14 mil per season)

4. Said Washburn is a distinct possibility for 3/$17 if the Jays can get rid of Lilly. Show-en-weis (his best friend) is still putting on the full court press, apparently.

5. Speculated that they may be able to sign Larry Walker to a one-year deal to DH exclusively, with the odd RF start, as a grand finale to his career.
Kingsley Zissou - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:28 PM EST (#133774) #
Oh, he also mentioned that he thought JP would probably just aquire all the pieces he wants (speciafically FA's) right now, then worry about making trades to pare salary and get back to the $75 million target as spring training approaches.
MatO - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:29 PM EST (#133775) #
David Bush as sort of a latter day Dave Stieb I would agree with. The early Stieb was much more talented.

Until Chacin learns a decent breaking pitch and has better control then he's not in the same class as Jimmy Key. Key walked nobody and had a curveball which destroyed left-handed hitters.
Named For Hank - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:38 PM EST (#133776) #
Dear God, if the Giles signing happens and Dunn for O-Dog goes through, MOFFATT WILL HAVE TO SHAVE HIS HEAD BALD!

Hrm, we never finalized that, did we?
The Bone - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:40 PM EST (#133778) #
A lot of speculation that the Loaiza deal makes Zito available. Neyer speculates the A's would want a young starter and a young bat (in the Haren/Barton mould) - We have the young starter (Bush or Chacin take your pick) and we have prospects to sweeten the deal - We don't have a young bat they'd be interested in, but we have tons of pieces to trade and hopefully get one back. I'd much rather have Zito than Burnett.

Does Boston have any top-notch almost-ready hitting prospects...I know they have a lot of pitching guys, but I haven't heard much about their hitting prospects...ideally I'd like to trade Hudson + Hinske for Youkilis (who we'd keep) and an elite hitting prospect (if one exists)
timpinder - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:49 PM EST (#133781) #
This is why, in my opinion, Chacin is going to leap backwards. He's just not that good. His two greatest assets are the fact that he hides the ball well and that he's a lefty. I know a lot of you are stats wizzards so maybe somebody can get the exact numbers, but I believe the first time through the order he was good, around .200 opp. batting average, second time through he was average or slightly below average, maybe .280 opp. batting average, and the third time through he got hammered, I think they were hitting close to .400 against him. That's why he hit a wall in the 5th or 6th so many times and he's destined to be in the pen. His WHIP of 1.39 is not that good. However, Bush's 1.25 WHIP is very solid. Chacin was often lucky, Bush was often unlucky and had no run support. Chacin will get worse next year, Bush will get better. Luke Prokupec had good numbers his first year too, and the Jays were duped into trading for him, and now he's back in Australia having BBQ's in the outback somewhere. I'd like to see Chacin traded while he has value. If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. And I honestly hope I am wrong.

I'd like to see Hinske traded to unload his contract, but I don't think you could give Hinske away for a water bottle and a box of baseballs, unless you packaged him with a starting pitcher like the Marlins did with Lowell.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 12:56 PM EST (#133783) #
Dave Stieb is not really a comp for Dave Bush. Stieb had the sharp slider, and was really the best pitcher in the league for a few years in the early 80s. But, Bush is a helluva smart guy and intense and fearless to boot. These qualities combined with his fine control make him a good bet to be a fine, fine pitcher for at least the next 5 years. What did Yogi say about 90% of baseball.:)

Chacin may not be death to lefties, but he's more effective than Key was against righties since he learned the cutter. Key's control record at age 23-25 was very similar to Chacin's record last year.

I like them both.



MatO - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:12 PM EST (#133784) #
Timpinder, I don't know why you're comparing Chacin to Prokopec. The Jays weren't duped into trading for Prokopec, he blew out his shoulder in his first year with the Jays.

Mike, I like Chacin but I took offense to the idea that he has more talent than Key. He'll be very lucky if he has a career as good as Key's.
Mark - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:22 PM EST (#133785) #
I really don't think Hinske is that hard to trade. He did win Rookie of the Year and that does mean a lot. His numbers are not that bad. I could see a lot of teams saying "maybe he just needs a change of scenery". Like Jays fans would say to players like Zach Greinke, Edwin Jackson and Dallas McPherson. I don't think you are going to get a lot for him but there is no way you need to throw in a prospect for someone to take him off our hands. Raul Mondesi was traded while making 10 million a year for nothing. The same goes with Koskie. I am sure the Dodgers would take him right now for nothing. I get the feeling here (on this site) that Jays players and prospects are severely under valued. Which is weird because normally it is opposite (eg.trade Batista for Dunn). Maybe it is because you do not want to sound like idiots (Leaf fans) and come of as knowledgeable, which most of you are, but Hudson + Hinske for Youkilis and prospect is ridiculous, so is McGowan for Overby. So are the Chacin/Bush/Batista for Gomes or Batista and Rios for Mench suggestions. Batista could land you Mench. Bush/Chulk or League/Chulk could land you Gomes. However, it is not a big deal because I do have faith in JP that he understands the value of his players and so far has not been close to being ripped off in a trade.(Maybe once with Arnold and JFG for Lopez, but I guess JFG bounced back this year and maybe we can expect something still) Before you bring up Prokopec, remember it was an injury that ruined his career and I don't think that was a bad trade.
TimberLee - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:36 PM EST (#133787) #
There may be a tendency for many of us to be modest when evaluating "our" own abilities, but then a lot of us are Canadian, eh?
Maldoff - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:39 PM EST (#133789) #
Wow, if Wilner is right (and that's a BIG IF), the Jays would round out like this:

C - Gregg Zaun
1B - Shea Hillenbrand
2B - Aaron Hill
SS - Russ Adams
3B - Corey Koskie
LF - Adam Dunn
CF - Vernon Wells
RF - Brian Giles
DH - Frank Catalannatto

SP1 - Roy Halladay
SP2 - AJ Burnett
SP3 - Jarrod Washburn
SP4 - Josh Towers
SP5 - Gustavo Chacin
CL - BJ Ryan

That's one hell of a team!!!
Mike D - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:40 PM EST (#133790) #
Being lefty, being clutch, and getting key double plays are not what I would want to base future success on. Apart form being lefty, the other two things can be attributed to dumb luck which could run out at any time.

He's just not that good.

All right, I've got to pipe up in support of my learned brother Green. I understand the sabermetric red flags regarding his walk and strikeout rates, but only a rigid, context-free approach would lead you to include that he's "just not that good."

It is not simply dumb luck that Chacin can coax double plays. He has a good defensive club behind him, including a superior pivot at second base. He pitches aggressively with men on base -- check out his walk rates per nine innings:

Bases Empty: 3.5
Runners On: 2.7
RISP: 2.3

It's also important to remember that he is truly among the game's elite in shutting down the running game. Folks, strikes and station-to-station baserunning is your recipe for generating DP grounders.

I'm optimistic for Gus. He works quickly, has a deceptive delivery and has a really good idea of what he wants to do on the mound. And while teams often figured him out over the course of games, teams generally did not figure him out over the course of the season. Boston is the only team that hit him harder each time they saw him. Even the Yankees, who enjoyed considerable success against Gus, were stymied by him during his duel with Chacon in September. He was very good in four of his last six starts.

Rigid adherence to the "high-K's-are-needed" school of thought -- which is generally a useful theory -- is the only reason to assume an imminent collapse, because there is no anecdotal or subjective evidence of it. He gave the Jays 203 above-average innings...gosh, some people must have some awfully high expectations of players earning the league minimum salary! Gus is precisely the guy you keep around.

I mean, at least until he's arbitration-eligible.
subculture - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:43 PM EST (#133791) #
I wasn't implying that Chacin was more talented than Key, and as someone who always though Key was under-rated, I'd be ecstatic if Chacin can match Key's career. I do believe though that Chacin actually has better stuff (mostly velocity). And regarding Chacin's walks, I don't think it reflects lack of control. I think he's seeing if a hitter will swing at something out of the zone, or it the ump will give him the close one. For a rookie pitcher, he always seemed to have a gameplan (which is more than you can say for a lot of veteran pitchers).

He may have weaker peripherals than Bush, but he pitches with more poise and maturity and that goes a long way in determining future success. And he has the stuff and mental strength IMO to improve those numbers (particularly the WINS column)
MatO - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:45 PM EST (#133792) #
I heard Wilner on the FAN also and I would characterize what he said as responding to questions by the 2 hosts and wishful thinking on his part. I don't actually think that Wilner believed that all of that stuff would happen.
Ron - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:49 PM EST (#133793) #
I'm sure this will break your heart but Matt Whiteside has signed with the Pirates. He signed a minor league deal with an invite to ST.

Oh yeah what happened to Kevin Cash's career?


Ryan C - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:51 PM EST (#133794) #
Larry Walker for a victory lap with the Jays? As long as he didnt cost much and wasnt expected to be an everyday starter (DH excepted) I think that would be awesome.
Mike D - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 01:59 PM EST (#133795) #
TSN is reporting that the White Sox have re-signed Konerko. Glad he's not off to Boston.
joemayo - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:04 PM EST (#133796) #
from rotoworld

Paul Konerko has agreed to stay with the White Sox on a five-year deal, according to ESPN Radio and ESPNews.
The deal is likely to be worth about $13 million per year. He's more of a $9 million-per-year player, but at least he's a very good bet to be an above average regular for the duration of the contract.

that could be bad news for the jays re Giles. if Konerko signed in LA they surely would have let up on Giles. now i wouldn't be surprised if he landed in Anahiem.
Newton - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:05 PM EST (#133797) #
Wanted Konerko to go to the Angels as they are competitors in the Giles sweepstakes.
Jordan - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:25 PM EST (#133799) #
That's a premium price to re-sign one of your own players coming off a World Series win, especially after acquiring a hitter much like him in trade. It officially signals the end of Frank Thomas's Chicago career, too. Not sure this was the wisest move the White Sox could have made.
Ron - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:36 PM EST (#133801) #
I'm a little bit surprised at how little Kornerko got. Obviously 12 mil a year isn't chump change but when you look at his past history, playoff performance, his age (29), being a team leader, and being the only true power threat available, I thought some team would offer him 5yrs/70 mil.

But he can honestly say money wasn't the main issue because the O's offered him 5yrs/65 mil and he settled for 5yrs/60 mil.

I don't think Kornerko would have signed with the Jays, but if I was the GM I would have no problem offering what he signed for.

One FA I haven't heard much of is Nomar. He would probably settle for a one year incentive based deal. His second-half numbers(.318/.347/.531) was nearly in tune with his career numbers (.320/.367/.544).

I would love to see the Jays take a run at him and see if he's willing mainly to DH and fill in at 3B and SS from time to time.
Mylegacy - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:42 PM EST (#133802) #
Frank Thomas with something to prove...???

Looks like we lose Giles.

VBF - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:43 PM EST (#133803) #
Well aren't the Angels still trying to pry Ramirez from the Red Sox? Would they take the chance on passing Giles in the hopes they could land Ramirez?
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:43 PM EST (#133804) #
Baseball Prospectus weighs in on the Ryan signing and other Toronto matters.
Gwyn - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:45 PM EST (#133805) #
One FA I haven't heard much of is Nomar
The Baltimore Press seem pretty confident he'll be an Oriole next year, playing a little third, a lot of first and some DH.
dmac - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:45 PM EST (#133806) #
Why is everyone so interested in Giles? He's a 20 hr, 90 rbi, 290 avg outfielder at the tail end of his career.
joemayo - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 02:56 PM EST (#133808) #
Well aren't the Angels still trying to pry Ramirez from the Red Sox? Would they take the chance on passing Giles in the hopes they could land Ramirez?

not if Red Sox fans have anything to say about it. www.keepmanny.com

rtcaino - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:01 PM EST (#133809) #
""Being lefty, being clutch, and getting key double plays are not what I would want to base future success on. Apart form being lefty, the other two things can be attributed to dumb luck which could run out at any time.

He's just not that good.""

Whoa Whoa Whoa. Your making it seem that I said he wasn't that good. I was simply saying that the fact that he's a lefty and has been clutch isn't a good argument to sustained future success.
Newton - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:05 PM EST (#133810) #
Given the absence of big name free agents to throw our money at this off season, what does everybody think of the following option:

Sign Low Priced Veterans to One Year Deals to fill whatever needs remain after prime FA/trade options are exhauted; ie Walker to help at DH/Corner Outfield, Thomas 1b/U, Nomar utility INF/1b/DH, Piazza backup C/DH

and then throw big money around next year.

Why can't we be the team that goes out and signs a Reggie Sanders type player to a one year deal?




Mike Green - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:08 PM EST (#133811) #
Dmac, we have learned that the avg./hr/rbi method of evaluating offensive contributions, which was the one I grew up with, is woefully inadequate. Essentially, there are two basic abilities in offence, the ability to get on base and the ability to move runners up (including oneself). The standard measures for these are on-base percentage and slugging percentage. However, in evaluating players, it is important to take into account their home park and adjust the percentages to reflect the difficulty of hitting in a particular park. There are a number of ways of adding it all up.

You can use the Hardball Times Runs Created, Runs Created per Game, or Gross Production Average or Baseball Prospectus Batting Runs Above Average (BRAA) to measure it. By these measures, we can see that Giles was one of the top 5 hitters in the National League last year (Derrek Lee, Pujols, Bay and Delgado were the others). The reason that Giles fares so well despite his modest showing in the triple crown statistics is that he draws many walks, and his home environment in San Diego is a very difficult one for a hitter.
Mike D - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:16 PM EST (#133812) #
Caino, I combined quotes from two comments -- only one of which was yours -- that I felt underestimated Chacin. I apologize if it wasn't fair to do so. Either way, it seems like we agree to disagree.
Pistol - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:17 PM EST (#133813) #
"That's a premium price to re-sign one of your own players coming off a World Series win"

I understand he's inflated somewhat from his park, but I thought that's a pretty good deal for the Sox (I guessed a lot higher on the salary). Konerko and Thome back to back is one of the better one-two power combos in baseball.

And now that Frank Thomas is gone I'll say it again - the Jays should sign Thomas for $15,000 a plate appearance, guaranteeing the first $3 million (so the $15,000/PA would be on those above 200 PAs).
Jacko - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:18 PM EST (#133814) #
Giles hasn't lost all that much since his 30 HR days in Pittsburgh.

Moving back to a decent hitters park (i.e. Skydome) would bring his numbers back to their pre-PETCO levels. Translating into traditional stats, he should be good for .300/30/100 for at least the next few years. And his beefy .400+ OBP in the #3 spot would help the Jays score a ton of runs as well.
Mike Green - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:21 PM EST (#133815) #
Skydome? What is this Skydome you speak of?:)
rtcaino - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:21 PM EST (#133816) #
Agree to disagree. When in Rome.

All I'm saying is, that there is a case to be made that he will be a good pitcher. But being left handed and clutch ain't it.
timpinder - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 03:50 PM EST (#133817) #
Mike D,
I'm going to stand by my comment about Chacin. Feel free to rub it in in September if he's still in the rotation with an ERA under even 4.25 while contributing quality starts. I'm a Jays fan, so I hope I'm wrong and Chacin goes on to win 15+ games with a 3.75 ERA. I just can't see it happening. As a fan I'd be more comfortable with Bush in the rotation, but I guess only time will tell.

Moving on, if the Jays can't get Burnett, and reports are that Washburn isn't interested in coming to T.O., any idea who J.P. will try to trade for???? Has Zito's name been mentioned in trade rumors?
John Northey - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 04:13 PM EST (#133818) #
And now that Frank Thomas is gone I'll say it again - the Jays should sign Thomas for $15,000 a plate appearance, guaranteeing the first $3 million (so the $15,000/PA would be on those above 200 PAs).

I think if the Jays lose out on the Giles sweepstakes that Thomas is a good backup choice at those figures (although I'd try to guarantee just $2 million).

Newton - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 04:21 PM EST (#133819) #
We could probably get Thomas, Nomar, Walker and Piazza (I do prefer the guaranteed money route) for less than the cost of 1 year of Giles.

Not that we'd want to pursue all these players but I think they represent a rare collection of former all-stars who all put up pretty good numbers last year in limited duty.

We had a rookie SS/3b Dh on many occasions last season and any of these guys or any 2 in combination would be a great upgrade on our current situation (Hinske/Hill).

At least 2 of these 4 will yield huge dividends next year.



VBF - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 04:30 PM EST (#133820) #
One of those perhaps, but I wouldn't want any of them playing anywhere else other than DH and the occasional catching of Piazza.
subculture - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 04:48 PM EST (#133821) #
That's an interesting idea re: the 4 former all-stars, and I think I would do it but you don't need Thomas AND Piazza... I wonder if Piazza could act as the 3rd catcher as an in-game injury backup. Thomas would have the bigger upside though...

And re: Chacin, if 'clutch', lefty, good approach, results plus the points Mike (and others made re: controlling runners etc) aren't enough to compensate for a higher-than-desirable WHIP, then what is? If that whip number was two-tenths lower, I get the feeling everyone would have Chacin on the untouchable list.

I like Bush as well, but if I had to choose one for next year, I'd keep Gus. But hopefully, they'll have room for both on the team.
Jdog - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 04:51 PM EST (#133822) #
If we are not able to land Burnett(which would be good) I would like to see the Jays start with a Halladay, Lilly, Chacin, Towers, Bush as the starting 5. Have Mcgowan in AAA and ready to come up if he dominates there......If we are in contention another arm could be added at the deadline(David Cone style) if one of the rotation members is dissapointing.
Ryan B. - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 04:52 PM EST (#133823) #
I was just reading over at foxsports.com that The Angels have minimal interest in Giles and are now turning their attention to Manny Ramirez. So it looks like only The Dodgers stand in the way of Giles coming to T.O

Another interesting read on the site was about how Zito, who I've been saying should be a target for J.P for about a month now, is very much available. Unfortunately the A's need a young bat and not young arms, making Toronto a less then ideal trading partner. Perhaps J.P can acquire a bat and then flip him to Oakland with a young pitcher. Zito only (yea "only") makes $8.5M next season, making him very attractive.
rIbIt - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 05:52 PM EST (#133825) #
For those who know...what's up w/the Walker speculation?

Sounds a little farfetched. Even if it is BS, this is the beginning of possibility. Like Ricciardi alluded to at the PC, a team can have all the potential in the world, but good veteran players will only want to run w/a squad when it's taken seriously (feared).

How long can we keep T.Rogers on a ventilator?
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 05:55 PM EST (#133826) #
So does that mean the Dodgers are giving up on Werth?

They need a 1B, but another OF?

They already have Bradley, JD Drew and Werth.
Ryan B. - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 05:58 PM EST (#133827) #
Rosenthal thinks Bradley will be non-tendored.
VBF - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 06:02 PM EST (#133828) #
One day after Ricciardi denied offering Giles 5 years, RJ Broadhead on Sportsnet just now reports that it is true. Is Sportsnet just behind?
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 06:02 PM EST (#133829) #
I'd be very interested in Bradley.

Is it because of Injuries? Or do they just want to get rid of him because of his behavior?

He was starting to turn around until porn stash joined the team.
VBF - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 06:03 PM EST (#133830) #
The Sportsnet ticker now says that an offer has been made, but not for five years.
Dave Till - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 07:54 PM EST (#133834) #
B.J. Ryan's contract is expensive, but it's a much better deal than $21 million over 3 years for E------ L-----. Whuh?

Could the Jays get Giles too? Whoa.
Rich - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:16 PM EST (#133836) #
The main difference between Key and Gus is the one that made Key so damned good - his control. Key was one of the best control pitchers I have ever seen, along with Wells, Maddux, Tewksbury, and Moyer. I think Gus will be a solid middle-of-the-rotation guy, but at best he'll be a pale imitation of the boy from Clemson.
Named For Hank - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:20 PM EST (#133837) #
One day after Ricciardi denied offering Giles 5 years, RJ Broadhead on Sportsnet just now reports that it is true. Is Sportsnet just behind?

Maybe J.P. is trying to fake out the competition so they don't feel the need to offer five years -- Giles' agent says "The Jays offered five -- will you?" and the Dodgers come back with "They didn't offer five! I saw it on TV! You're trying to trick us! We'll throw in these magic beans, but that's our final offer!"

Yes, it's true, I need some sleep.
King Ryan - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:28 PM EST (#133838) #
I hope you're wrong, Aaron. We can't beat an offer of magic beans.
Pepper Moffatt - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:30 PM EST (#133839) #
Wow.. hearing all these big names has got me pumped. I'll believe it when I see it, but the fact we're even having this conversation is a very encouraging sign.

If the Jays have both Dunn and Giles, I'll gladly shave my head. Even if it means losing the O-Dog.

Mike Forbes - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:36 PM EST (#133840) #
Someone mentioned Milton Bradley up further in the thread.. I gotta say, I'm a huge fan of Milton's.. He is extremely productive when healthy and I believe a change of scenery to a less stressful city like Toronto would help calm his temper.

Before you go on about Bradley being a clubhouse cancer, let me tell you that he was one of the most liked guys in the Dodgers clubhouse. The real cancer in LA is Jeff Kent.

Also, it seems Jeff Weaver has gotten lost in the shuffle this winter.. What does everyone think of a 3 year/25 million dollar contract for him? His K/BB ratio is very nice, although his ERA is abit higher than it should be.
TamRa - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:53 PM EST (#133842) #
I disagree that we can't afford Giles, Burnett, AND dunn...assuming a few key salary movements happen.

Here's a roster based on a reasonable set of transactions which comes in under the $80 million mark:

Halladay - 12.7
Burnett - 8
Towers - 2.3
Chacin - 0.4
Bush - 0.4

Ryan - 8
Speier - 2.25
Schoeenweis - 2.75
Frasor - 0.35
Downs - 0.5
Chulk - 0.35


Zaun - 1
Estrada - 0.82

Gonzalez - 0.35
Hillenbrand - 4.7

Hill - 0.35
McDonald - 0.4

Adams - 0.38


Koskie - 5.3


Dunn - 8
Wells - 4.3
Giles - 9.66
Johnson - 1.1
Cat - 2.7

Total: $78.5 (includes payment on Hinske's contract)

I traded Lily, Hudson and League (and a prospect if necessary) for Dunn and signed Dunn to a three year deal like this 8-9-10

I traded Batista, and Rios (and a prospect if necessary) for Gonzalez.

I signed Giles to a three year deal (9.66 - 10.33 - 10) with a vesting option of 9 mill for the following year.

I signed Burnett thusly: 8-9-10-11-12

I trade Hinske to SF with 1.33 this year and 2.66 next year for prospects which I flipped to Atlanta for Johnny Estrada.

Now, you can feel free to insert Shea instead of Hinske (or even non-tender him) but the budgetary impact is about the same.

Also, there are only 24 names here.


Certainly, it's just one example, and you can quibble with individual adjustments. But there's nothing outrageous here to get to this figure. Adding all three of them and staying on budget can most assuradly be done.
JB21 - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:54 PM EST (#133843) #
I believe a change of scenery to a less stressful city like Toronto

Toronto isn't very stress free, the Media here is New Yorkish.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 08:59 PM EST (#133845) #
If the Jays offered five years, a Brian Giles press conference with Paul Godfrey spouting off cliche's would have been done yesterday. Safe to say it's not five years, but I wouldn't be surprised if it took four years to get Giles to Toronto. All things being equal, I doubt he'd pass up a west coast team for Toronto. JP needs to add something, and more years is probably what Giles would want.

If the Jays are one of the final teams in the running for Giles, that's all we can really ask for. He's a west coast guy, and if you told me a month ago that the Jays would be one of the favorites (with the two LA teams) to acquire Giles, I would have called you an optimist. Great job by JP and Ted's money. With that said, I still expect Giles to sign elsewhere. Can't wait until the winter meetings to find out what happens.

Milton Bradley, attitude and all, would be a nice back-up plan. If a team with Carl Everett can win a world series, then no attitude is bad enough to hinder victories.
Named For Hank - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:01 PM EST (#133846) #
Toronto isn't very stress free, the Media here is New Yorkish.

Except that they rarely go after the players. Can you think of an article in recent memory that really went after a player? Closest thing I can come up with is Blair giving Towers one of his Three Jeers over a comment Towers made.
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:16 PM EST (#133847) #
Bradley really turned himself into a leader on the Dodgers before Jeff Kent really started messing things up.

I think he would be a very solid pickup.
Sherrystar - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:17 PM EST (#133848) #
Just a note, but people are posting on another "Jays fan" site (that I shall not name) that Boras has said he thinks Burnett is headed to St. Louis?

I guess it's possible the Jays won't get Giles or Burnett.
Nick - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:21 PM EST (#133849) #
People who think the Toronto media is bad have never read the LA Times.
HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:22 PM EST (#133850) #
Well Boras isn't AJ's agent so I don't really care what he thinks....
Jim - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:27 PM EST (#133851) #
This is not normally the type of thing I concern myself with but Milton Bradley is mentally ill and I want no part of him.

His signing would also be the complete opposite of everything that JP has done as GM.
nicton - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:28 PM EST (#133852) #
The Cardinal site I frequent also believes the Cards have a deal Burnett is set to accept. Rumored 4 + option. Waiting for Winter Meetings to finalize and announce. Gives other interested teams a last chance to up the ante. Of course, all speculation...
HollywoodHartman - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:45 PM EST (#133855) #
Supposedly Giles resigned with the Padres, 3 yrs + Option.

Damn...

Source: mlbtraderumors.com
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:47 PM EST (#133856) #
All this after we hear that SD is out of the hunt?

Hopefully it is just a worthless rumor.
actionjackson - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:51 PM EST (#133858) #
Wait a minute, Sherrystar, you're going to accept something posted on a Jays' site, whose name you don't even want to mention. The rumour's initiator is Scott Boras, who's so in touch with reality that he believes Johnny Damon is worth 7/$84 mil, and that Damon is MLB's greatest ironman since Cal Ripken Jr. No offense, but I'll wait for a more credible source, before I give up on Burnett. If it's true, let's make 'em pay through the nose!
Nick - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 09:53 PM EST (#133859) #
I checked the site out. The original source is actually KGTV-10 in San Diego. A couple of radio stations in SD are also reporting it. They are reporting that Towers sent an apology to Giles' agent. Announcement expected tomorrow afternoon. I think people were getting their hopes up too high. The Jays were an option only if he got no good offers from SD, LA, or LAA. One of those teams were bound to pony up a reasonable offer.
Elijah - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:01 PM EST (#133860) #
Having seen and read a lot about Bradley (and actually jogging past his house), I don't think Bradley is a cancer although trouble does appear to follow him around.

That being said, I wouldn't want Bradley unless it was an incentive-laden deal because he's also demonstrated himself to be rather injury-prone. I think that's my biggest concern. Since there's no chance there wouldn't be some team offering him a larger base salary, it's a moot point for me.


As for Giles returning to SD, I think the Padres are right to do this. They'd have to be in damage control mode if they lose Giles, Hoffman and Hernandez. It looks like Giles is back and my bet is that Hoffman will also find a way to return as well.

As for the Jays, I can't see the Reds dealing Dunn for Hudson. Like I said at the end of the season, there weren't many big bats available in FA and both of the biggies ended up returning to their original teams. We'll see now if Ricciardi steps up his focus on Burnett given Giles electing to re-sign. I have a feeling he's still going to make a big push for him.
VBF - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:02 PM EST (#133861) #
The BJ Ryan signing was good, but suddenly in the span of 30 minutes, this offseason isn't going as hopefully as we thought it would two hours ago. This definitely puts the pressure on JP.

Everything was coming up so rosey...
RhyZa - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:05 PM EST (#133862) #
OT: Bruins trade Thornton to SJ for Stuart, Sturm & Primeau.

wow, a real stunner, I like Stuart but seems like a terrible, panic move to give up a talent like Joe.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:09 PM EST (#133863) #
If true (about Giles), that stings. I could live without AJ Burnett, despite how good his ratios are I don't think he'll substantially out-pitch Batista or Bush next season, but Giles would have dramatically changed the lineup. I don't know where the Jays can turn to now, but it likely won't be as impactful as Giles would have been.

Hopefully that's false (about Giles going back to SD). If not, JP has to get creative at the meetings.
Maldoff - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:23 PM EST (#133867) #
Unfortunately, it looks like the Giles rumours are true.

Just showed up on ESPN.com
RhyZa - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:32 PM EST (#133870) #
Maybe it's for the best, it looks like he really wanted to stay out West even if it meant sacrificing what would have seemingly been a lot of money. JP is going to have to get creative via the trade route now, and to those who questioned JP jumping too early on Ryan in that it didn't fulfill our biggest need first, I think it's apparent to see why that wasn't a bad move.
Jordan - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:41 PM EST (#133871) #
if you told me a month ago that the Jays would be one of the favorites (with the two LA teams) to acquire Giles, I would have called you an optimist.

Amen. The Jays started off as extreme longshots to land Giles and ended up in the Final Four. I daresay that if Giles didn't want to really return to San Diego, as he evidently did, he might very well be a Blue Jay right now. Quite disappointing to lose out on him, but very encouraging that the team came so close. The Jays have established themselves as serious players this off-season, and that will really help going into the winter meetings.

Burnett seems to have fallen off the Jays' radar the past several days, but I agree they'll probably make a big push for him between now and Monday. It's in JP's interests to go into Dallas with as many tradeable assets as possible; having Burnett in the fold would bump up those assets considerably.

It's gonna be a very fun winter meetings -- and when was the last time Blue Jays fans could say that? It's been a long time coming.

timpinder - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:41 PM EST (#133872) #
Well, so much for Giles. Atleast J.P. can focus his efforts on Burnett now, and he knows where he stands going into the winter meetings. The Reds need pitching and a 2B, but they have 4 starting outfielders. Who knows, maybe losing out in the Giles bidding is the best thing that could have happened to the Jays. Maybe now they'll have money available and come out of the winter meetings with a 40 HR guy in Adam Dunn cleaning up between Wells and Mench, and at a much cheaper price than Giles would have been.

I'm a little disappointed, but J.P. will do something(s) via trade.
Newton - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:44 PM EST (#133873) #
Ok, now that we're out of la la land, back to Overbay and players like him to help our offence.

I'd be tickled if we acquired 2-3 guys who have posted and who are projected to post OPS's of .850 this season.

Even though they aren't names that make you feel like you're climbing the rope in gym class Overbay, Durazo and Mench are all significant upgrades over what we've got in the corner OF slots, at 1b and DH.

Of the 3 only Durazo is a FA, he also has the most upside posting a .900 plus OPS in 2004.

Let's hope we still have a shot at Burnett otherwise we'll need to start looking at other number 2 calibre starters.

To me acquring a starter in free agency is a key domino as it frees us up to deal young MLB ready pitching for offence.



Ron - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:48 PM EST (#133874) #
"It's gonna be a very fun winter meetings -- and when was the last time Blue Jays fans could say that? It's been a long time coming."

Last year.

All along JP had said Delgado took up too much of the payroll room and with him off the books he finally had money to play with. A lot of Jay fans were excitied going into the winter meetings. They landed Mr. Canuck Corey Koskie (biggest FA signing during JP's regime at that time) and were hot on the trails of Matt Clement.

The only negative was putting up with Marty York on a daily basis on SNNews.

I can't wait until next week. As a baseball fan in general, I expect a lot of deals and signings to take place, and that gets me excitied.

Cristian - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 10:55 PM EST (#133875) #
I think Burnett was a possibility at 5 years and $55M. Now that writers are reporting that Burnett's deal may climb into the 5 year and $60-70M range, I'll be happy to see Burnett go elsewhere...and I don't care how chummy he is with Arnsberg. Hopefully JP's head turns to bats which is the team's real need. A Halladay, Lilly, Chacin, Batista, Bush, Towers rotation is solid and contains enough depth to deal from. Let's go to the winter meetings in search of bats. An overpaid number 2 starter is not what this team needs.
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:01 PM EST (#133877) #
Why can't we just go after Kevin Millwood over Burnett?

I'm serious.
Nick - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:02 PM EST (#133878) #
I believe Durazo is projected to miss the first half of the season after undergoing TJ surgery. Someone correct me if that's wrong.
Ron - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:04 PM EST (#133879) #
"Why can't we just go after Kevin Millwood over Burnett?"

If I had to take an educated guess, it would be a name that fans for some reason hate to hear....

Scott Boras


zaptom - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:09 PM EST (#133880) #
Thats a real shame about Giles. 3 years for 30mil is below what I thought he would get. At least he isn't playing in the AL. JP goes into the meetings with a great deal of pressure to get deals done, and he surely will get something done. I'm hesitant to trade any of our position players of value (anybody not Hinskie or Coskie), so if we can sign Burnett ASAP that gives us the ability to trade some arms. Overbay or Mench are not the type of players that are worth trading anything significant for. Might as well wait for Rios to develop some more. We need a big bat that we might need to overpay for.
greenfrog - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:12 PM EST (#133881) #
I'm not surprised about Giles, and I would be surprised if we sign AJ. I guess the question is, where does AJ most want to play? I'm sure he's already decided. In any event, I am really glad that JP landed Ryan. After the Konerko and Loaiza signings, Ryan doesn't look overly pricey to me.

Even if we lose out on Burnett (which might not be the worst thing), we're still in much better shape than we were a week ago.
RhyZa - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:15 PM EST (#133882) #
Millwood would worry me beyond that, a lot of IF's with him, a solid chance of regression and I don't think one can expect him to perform even relatively close to how he did last season (and the subsequent $$ figures he will see due to that). I recall reading somewhere a while back quite a few troubling indicators that for lack of a better term, would point to his 2005 campaign as rather 'fortunate'.
Jabes - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:19 PM EST (#133883) #
What about trading for JD DREW? The Dodgers must now think of him as Paul's crazy signing, and his injury last year was a fluke.
CaramonLS - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:22 PM EST (#133884) #
JD Drew always gets injured and their are questions about his work ethic.

Lefty - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:24 PM EST (#133885) #
Agreed. Probably take a couple million less resources as well.
Ryan B. - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:25 PM EST (#133886) #
I'm not sure where the Jays go from here. There isn't a lot on the market right now for hitters and that's what they need the most.

Screw Burnett. There, I said it. He's overpriced and inconcistent. I'd rather pay $7M a year for Millwood or Weaver.

I want to keep Hudson but if you have to trade him for a clean up hitter then I guess the Jays can make due with Hill. He'll offer more offence for less defence, so it's not that bad.

Jacko - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:30 PM EST (#133887) #
Only problem is that in this market, Millwood is going to cost at least 10 MM per season.

I think what we've got already (i.e. Chacin, Towers, Bush, Batista) is superior to Jeff Weaver, so he's not worth signing. Remember, Chavez Ravine is a _great_ place to pitch. Weaver's ERA might break 5.00 pitching a hitters park in the AL. Not a Chan Ho Park like disaster, but pretty close.




timpinder - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:32 PM EST (#133888) #
Cristian,

This team definately needs a couple bats. Thomas or Walker at DH sounds good, but even if it's just Overbay and Mench that J.P. gets, that's still a nice improvement.

"An overpaid #2 starter is not what this team needs".

I definately agree with you that aquiring bats is more important, but bats can be aquired via trade. Other than Zito, it doesn't appear any frontline pitchers are available via the trade route. (And Zito may be off limits too)

Even if Towers and Chacin repeat last years performances, Lilly and Bush improve, and the Jays sneak into the wild card slot, there is absolutely no way that rotation gets past the second round. In the short series first round, MAYBE. If Halladay wins game 1, then what? Lilly, Towers, Chacin or Bush face off against Schilling or Beckett, Zito or Harden, or Mussina or Johnson or Pavano?

Burnett will be getting overpaid if he comes here, but sometimes it's worth it IMO. He has the stuff to dominate a game.
Jacko - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:37 PM EST (#133889) #
As for the Jays, I can't see the Reds dealing Dunn for Hudson. Like I said at the end of the season, there weren't many big bats available in FA and both of the biggies ended up returning to their original teams. We'll see now if Ricciardi steps up his focus on Burnett given Giles electing to re-sign. I have a feeling he's still going to make a big push for him.

I think they Jays would be happy with any of the Reds outfielders, including Griffey or Wily Mo.

The trick would be convincing Griffey to (a) not run through any walls and (b) stay in Toronto for more than 1 season (Toronto is fairly close, and there's tons of scheduled flights).

Wily Mo looks like a young Sammy Sosa, and could turn into a beast if he tightens up his control of the strike zone.

Dunn's getting expensive, and the Reds are cheap, cheap, cheap, so he might be had for prospects.

nicton - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:50 PM EST (#133890) #
Usatoday rumoring ( not really reporting ) Red Sox are talking to the Reds about Dunn.

Didn't Larry Walker retire after the WS???
okbluejays - Wednesday, November 30 2005 @ 11:57 PM EST (#133891) #
If there was any truth to Hudson for Dunn I think JP would have pulled the trigger long ago.

If Colorado agreed to eat a fair amount of salary and take back Hinske I'd consider Helton in a deal - road splits, wonky back and decline phase be damned. I don't see a lot of obvious trade partners out there.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 12:26 AM EST (#133893) #
I think, if there is any grounds to the rumour that is, that it's safe to say that it would not be Hudson straight up for Dunn.. it's probably which young arm accompanies him that is the sticking point, but I remain skeptical on this one.
nicton - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 12:42 AM EST (#133894) #
After trading Dunn, the Reds have 3 OFs ( Pena, Griffey, Kearns ) Lopez at SS and Freel at 2B. Would they give up their best trading chip for a 2B??? I'd guess 3 pitchers would be the price ( SP RP Pros. )
jgadfly - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 12:44 AM EST (#133895) #
trading baseball cards...too bad about Giles as the price for Dunn just went up a whole lot...BoSox probably looking to replace Ramirez who could go to Angels for mega prospects who would then flip to Cinci with Sox keeping the best of the litter for themselves...not even a rumour...just an educated (?) guess...guessing is half the fun
RhyZa - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 12:52 AM EST (#133897) #
btw, over there on redszone.com you should check out their Dunn to Sox thread... they are pretty much asking the world for him (in a 3 way between the Mets and Sox, Manny going to NY). Examples:

"Milledge, Papelbon, Arroyo & Heilmann sounds about like what I'd have to have (doesn't thrill me though and I'd hope we'd do better)"

"I could see a deal with Dunn to the Sox and Larue to the Mets but I would want Lester, Shoppach, Pedroia, Heilman and Milledge"

"It could work if the Reds get two prospects from each team. It would pretty much have to be: Milledge and Humber from the Mets Lester and Papelbon from the Sox"

"I'd accept Mathis, Kotchman, Wood, Santana, Chone Figgins, and Jared Weaver... etc"


And after all that, most are still not thrilled, and somewhat understandably so since Dunn is a proven stud like commodity but geez, they'd probably laugh at a Hudson and Mcgowan (or one of our top pitching, yet obviously unproven prospects) offer by the looks of things. I guess Dunn is jus that good that I'm not quite sure whether this is just homer talk or realistic fan expectations in a return, and I don't know how realistic it is as to what their GM can be seeking for either. I guess this sums it up best:

"Adam Dunn, no matter what he costs, is a "take-your-breath-away ballplayer." Anyway you look at it, I insist on a "talk-your-breath-away-pitcher" in return. If I trade a 24 year old who has already hit 40 plus hr's in back-to-back years, I want a Roy Oswalt type in return. If I don't get it, and many of you will say I am nuts, I keep Dunn.....end of discussion."
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:09 AM EST (#133898) #
I can understand his desire for a Roy Oswalt type player, but this just seems like he is trying to suck every quality prospect out of a minor system.

You can't expect to make a deal asking for 4 top quality prospects, even if it is for Adam Dunn.
golouis - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:24 AM EST (#133899) #
For Rumors on the site about the Jays they don't even mention Dunn but one person would trade Willy Mo Pena for Hudson, Frasor and a prospect.
RhyZa - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:26 AM EST (#133900) #
I agree, but with that said, I think the smart play might be Kearns (his stock might never be lower) or Willy Mo here.
Callum - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:35 AM EST (#133901) #
Have there been any rumblings on moving Gabe Gross? I seem to remember teams being hot on the trail of the Gabe after his big spring, the Braves being one of them.
Cristian - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:40 AM EST (#133902) #
I'm still pushing for Piazza as a DH/backup catcher. Piazza is 2 1/2 years older than Giles. If we were willing to go 3 years for Giles, why isn't Piazza worth a year? I know Piazza's numbers have slipped whereas Giles' haven't. However, Piazza will come at a cheaper price and fills another need as he'll be able to catch 1 or 2 games a week.
Alexander - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:48 AM EST (#133904) #
Not likely. Gabe hasnt even proven that he can be a capable reserve to this point.

Cheers.
Twilight - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:35 AM EST (#133905) #
I think if they can get a bunch of solid hitters in there, that would help considerably. I mean, even if you do go for a team of Hillenbrands, I seem to remember several guys hitting less than .291 with 15ish HR.

Getting comparable performance out of a RF, 1B, 3B and DH would considerably help the Jays' cause. We seem to remember a lot of games that we "almost came back to win", well, let's make the whole lineup "slightly above average" and see what happens.

If we're gonna go with onbase guys, let's at least string em together.
timpinder - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:17 AM EST (#133909) #
nicton,

Walker retired, yes, but in the second half of the year he uttered the possibility that he might return if it was to be a fulltime DH for an AL team.

Ok, this is a great site because it seems a lot of you have access to information, or rumors, or just seem to be in the know. I have a question, now that Giles is out of the picture.

What bats are available via trade at the winter meetings????????

(I've heard Overbay, Mench, Ramirez, Reds OF rumors so far)

Mike Green - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:37 AM EST (#133914) #
If this report is accurate, Giles signed at 3 years for $9 million per year with a $9 club option on the 4th year ($3 million buyout). That is grossly below market rate for Giles' performance. Undoubtedly, he has a desire to remain in San Diego and doesn't really care that he got $9 million per year instead of the $11 or $12 that he undoubtedly could have gotten elsewhere. Acquiring talent is not simply a matter of having the money, but it does help.
Brian B. - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:41 AM EST (#133915) #
Here's a link to a St, Louis article from yesterday the 30th about the Cardinal's approach to be in the running for A.J. Burnett:

Link

Jordan - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:49 AM EST (#133916) #
He has received multiple offers for his client - each of them for the five-year terms Burnett is pursuing.

If that's the case, then the Jays, if Ricciardi's "no five-year offers" line is to be believed, are not in the running.

I sure would not like to see Burnett end up in Baltimore.

SK in NJ - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:51 AM EST (#133917) #
Giles took a "hometown discount". No other way to decribe it. He wanted to stay in San Diego, and the Padres finally smartened up and realized they probably got the biggest bargain in the off-season. The only way the Jays could have trumped that offer is by offering the mis-report by Elliot (5-years, $55 million). Considering Giles would have been 39 by the end of that contract, I'd say "risk" would be an understatement.

It sucks and it ruined by week....but that's baseball. Like I said before, we should be thrilled that it came down to the Padres and Jays. I wasn't even expecting the Jays to be in it at all, but to be the team Giles would have gone to had the Padres stayed out is a wonderful thought. Maybe the Ryan signing did something afterall, in addition to adding a force in the pen.

Hopefully JP has some nice back-up plans that don't include Kevin Mench. Going from potentially having Brian Giles to settling on Kevin Mench would be a let down. Lyle Overbay would at least bring a high OBP, so he'd be a good pick-up.
Maldoff - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:59 AM EST (#133919) #
Question of the day:

Is AJ Burnett really THAT much better than Ted Lilly? Seem like similar teases to me.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 10:12 AM EST (#133921) #
Actually, I don't think 5/55 is as much of a risk for Giles as people suppose. 3 years at 14 million is what Sheffield got at the same stage. It's like adding on $8 million and $5 million for the last 2 years to that figure. I'd call that a modest additional risk to the Sheffield contract for a player who I think is probably a better gamble in his late 30s than Sheffield.

I have no idea what was in fact offered.
VBF - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:40 AM EST (#133923) #
HoJu - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:47 AM EST (#133924) #
I noticed one of the comps for Giles thru age 34 was Moises Alou. Alou turns 39 next year and in the last 4 years he's averaged 25 HR and 80 RBI. Probably be happy with Giles if he does that for the next 4 years.
Donkit R.K. - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 12:22 PM EST (#133927) #
A Diary at minorleagueball.com reports that Burnett is signing with the Cards - this site is the first place I saw Ryan, Thome, Delgado, and Konerko reported on... Not a particularily reliable source for the post, but it is interesting... this rumor is about as solid as jello, I guess ;-)
rtcaino - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 12:59 PM EST (#133930) #
Hopefully he does go to STL. I really don't think he will put it together and be a CY candidate. However, just in case he does, I'll be glad if he isn’t in the AL East.
VBF - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:55 PM EST (#133933) #
Not sure what the BBRRS is for Inside the Dome, but they are reporting that JP will make his first offer for AJ Burnett today. I think the fact that we haven't made an offer yet suggests that AJ Burnett is holding out on other offers to see what Toronto does.

ITD also says that the Cardinals offer has an expiration date, when, I don't know.
Ryan B. - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 01:59 PM EST (#133934) #
I hope St.Louis gets him too. I'd much rather have Millwood for a few Million less, even if Cyborg-agent Boras represents him.
einsof - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 02:15 PM EST (#133936) #
We need a reliable bat BADLY!!But the choices left are not that impressive--Mench--L.Walker-Piazza-Durazo-F.Thomas-Sosa-Burnitz--Overbay--I don't envy JP job--Even though I'm no big Mench fan, he's starting to look better, though I'd much prefer Overbay---But in my dreams I'm going after Manny--I can dream can't I?? Is there no such thing anymore like "an offer you can't refuse"--Wouldn't Manny love batting against the Red Sox & Yankees?
BrockLanders - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 02:44 PM EST (#133937) #
I'm starting to think that all these free agent spurnings may turn to out be a good thing. Also, why is Nomar Garciaparra so alienated this time of year?? If JP could clear up some room at the winter meetings, maybe he could throw him an incentive laden deal?? Apparently, every team is avoiding him like the plague.
rtcaino - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 03:25 PM EST (#133938) #
Just for kicks I asked Aaron Gleeman this:

AG- What about Koskie? How much would you give up? What kind of salary would the Jays need to eat?

I wouldn't give up much of anything for Koskie at this point. Maybe a mid-level prospect if they ate about 80% of his salary.
Ken MacDonald - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 03:27 PM EST (#133939) #
I would also love to Manny in a Jays uniform but unfortunatly that's just a really nice fantasy! I'm really glad we lost out on Giles I think he's way overrated and has Little up side. Rios stats most likely be pretty close to Giles next year any way and he's a whole lot cheaper. Hey we should take a que from the bruins and deal wells for 3 stiffs. (PISSED OF BRUINS FAN!)
rtcaino - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 03:44 PM EST (#133940) #
I don't know if Rios and Giles is the best of comparisons. Giles is an on-base freak. And Rios... Well Rios really isn't.
Eric Purdy - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 03:55 PM EST (#133941) #
"I'm really glad we lost out on Giles I think he's way overrated and has Little up side. Rios stats most likely be pretty close to Giles next year any way"

I, um, highly doubt that.
Mike Green - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:06 PM EST (#133942) #
It's true, Eric. I've pegged Rios for a sweet .300/.380/.480 line in 2006, and I've invested my life savings in it. :)

Actually, it wouldn't be a total shock if Alex did that- it's really just the MLE of his 2003 season in New Haven with a modest age improvement. It would acquire more credibility as a projection if he'd done anything like that before or after.
Newton - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:13 PM EST (#133943) #
Rios might slug .480 in 2006 but there is no way he posts a .380 OBP.

He'd have to bat .340 to do that given his usual 30 plus walks.

Skills - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:18 PM EST (#133944) #
Or maybe he could get into the habit of drinking before games, somehow manage to get on base, and subsequently pass out. Perhaps they'd adjust the tallying of OBP and change it to time spent on base. If Rios passes out, he could be there for hours.
Maldoff - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:22 PM EST (#133945) #
Here's an off-the-wall thought, why not go after the White Sox theory from last year and rather than getting a slugging outfielder, get a proven lead-off guy such as Juan Pierre?
Lefty - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:40 PM EST (#133946) #
Or a surplus Joey Gathright?
zaptom - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:42 PM EST (#133947) #
If Rios uses alcohol as a performance enhancing drug then Selig will probably ban beer, hotdogs and fun for the 2007 season.
DepecheJay - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:46 PM EST (#133948) #
What Maldoff?! That's sheer madness!!

An outfielder that ISN'T a masher?! That can't work, it won't work!! Look at the White Sox, they'll NEVER win a championship with that style of ball! Oh wait...

Folks... if the Jays want to win, they are going to have to get very creative, and not just with contracts. Just because everyone and their grandmother says that you have to have mashers in the outfield, doesn't mean it's true. Same for third base, etc. As long as you have the mashers in there, it doesn't matter where they play, so long as they are there. How bout the Jays be innovative and try and find some possible deals that way? Instead of just doing what everyone else is doing and getting no one?
Mike D - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 04:52 PM EST (#133949) #
Without considering the context, acquiring a Pierre or Gathright isn't crazy. Both are disruptive baserunners with on-base skills (although Pierre was pretty lousy last year.)

But it's not what the Jays need. The White Sox added Podsednik to a lineup that hit home runs. Russ Adams and Frank Catalanotto have on-base skills and are smart baserunners, too. The Jays' lineup simply needs two hitters to move runners over and around. It's a luxury that the White Sox had before they tinkered with their roster last offseason.
John Northey - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 05:32 PM EST (#133952) #
Something interesting via Rotoworld...

In the winter leagues Chad Gaudin has a 1.68 ERA over 48 IP while Justin Miller has a 1.45 ERA over 37 IP. We now have two guys starting to lobby for a spot that isn't there. They still don't have much trade value but could end up as extras to seal a deal, or could become the useful pitchers many thought they'd be in the past, coming up whenever someone gets hurt and forcing the Jays hand, in a good way of course.
Chuck - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 05:40 PM EST (#133953) #
Rios stats most likely be pretty close to Giles next year any way

Step one for Rios would be to get his SLG to even match Giles' OBP.

Chuck - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 05:44 PM EST (#133954) #
Have there been any rumblings on moving Gabe Gross? I seem to remember teams being hot on the trail of the Gabe after his big spring, the Braves being one of them.

I think hot on the trail was really just curious after a 10 HR spring given that they were starting the season with Mondesi and Jordan in the corners. I would imagine that Gross's stock, whatever it may have been for the briefest of periods, is virtually nil at this point. He'd be little more than a throw-in as a warm body in the outfield.

JayFan0912 - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 06:33 PM EST (#133956) #
I would have loved to see giles in a blue jays uniform ... but I think there's a risk with players his age. Barry Bonds missed an entire season with that surgery, and so could giles. Theoretically, if giles gets injured, even dwayne wise could outperform him.

I think it would be a good idea to bring in a player like mench -- average hitter with some upside. He hits lefties with a vengeance, and strugled against righties. Look at his OBP and BB/SO against lefties, and then against the righties. If he could just learn to manage the strike zone as well against righties as he does against lefties he would see better pitches, and his slugging % would improve as well.

Anyway, with mench, rios wouldn't be guaranteed a spot on the team, which could act as a motivating factor. Should he strugle, he gets sent to syracuse, and works on his swing, until he forces the team's hand. Or, he forces the team's hand out of spring training. Either way, players like that (mench) motivate prospects to raise their standard of play, something which was missing in the past (at least in the OF since Gross/Johnson/etc. aren't even average)
Magpie - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 06:53 PM EST (#133958) #
Should [Rios] struggle, he gets sent to Syracuse...

Rios is out of options (turned pro in mid-1999, added to the 40 man roster at the end of 2002), so whatever the Jays do with him will not involve sending him to Syracuse.

Jacko - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 07:31 PM EST (#133960) #
You sure about that Magpie?

Rios spend all of 2005 in the majors, so they've only burned two option years (2003 and 2004).
King Ryan - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 08:09 PM EST (#133963) #
Maybe Ken is talking about Brian Giles?

Seriously, if Rios has an OBP over .400 next year, I will buy lunch for everyone in this thread.

danjulien - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 08:22 PM EST (#133964) #
I like lunch...*crosses fingers*
CeeBee - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 08:29 PM EST (#133965) #
go Rios go!!!!! {grin}
Named For Hank - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 08:57 PM EST (#133967) #
Seriously, if Rios has an OBP over .400 next year, I will buy lunch for everyone in this thread.

I'm just posting to get in on the free lunch.
R Billie - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:02 PM EST (#133968) #
Ditto
HollywoodHartman - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:04 PM EST (#133969) #
Giles' 3rd most comparable hitter is.... John McDonald... Can't say I saw that one coming
Mike D - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:21 PM EST (#133971) #
That would be quite the scene in the Petco Park offices.

"You idiot! You gave $30 million to the wrong Brian Giles!!!"
Magpie - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:25 PM EST (#133972) #
Rios spent all of 2005 in the majors, so they've only burned two option years (2003 and 2004).

Yup - 2005 was his third option year. Once a player is added to the 40 man (after his third pro season, otherwise he's exposed to the Rule 5 draft), he can be optioned at will during the next three years. But just those next three seasons. It doesn't matter whether or not you use the option - it expires anyway.

VBF - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:28 PM EST (#133973) #
Well at least they would have given it to some form a baseball player, unlike a certain North Chicago baseball team did one fateful, autumn morn.
Magpie - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 09:35 PM EST (#133974) #
Seriously, if Rios has an OBP over .400 next year, I will buy lunch for everyone in this thread.

Further proof that there is no such thing as a free lunch...

Other option news... Chad Gaudin is out of options. He either makes the team this spring, or he has to pass through waivers to go to AAA.

And this will be Dustin McGowan's third option year. (He lost his first to surgery.) I went over the case of McGowan with Will Hill of the Jays last summer as I was trying to make sense of the option rules. McGowan was drafted in June 2000, and pitched at Medicine Hat in 2000. So I wondered, was that his first pro season? In which case, he would have had to be added to the 40 man roster after the 2002 season. Will confirmed for me that McGowan was added to the 40 man in November 2003, which meant that his 2000 short-season did not count as his first pro season. (We get the exact same thing with Rios, one year earlier.)

And in that case, I believe that David Purcey doesn't have to be added to the 40 man roster until November 2007, Ricky Romero until November 2008. There's a good chance that either of them may force the issue before then, of course.

Ken MacDonald - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 10:01 PM EST (#133975) #
OK,Enough I give up! Rios is never going to walk as much as Giles and there for his OBP will always be lower but based on last years numbers I would be scared that Giles power is starting to slip and if we signed him for 4 or 5 years we might end up a slap hitting,aging outfielder who walks alot.Not really a bad thing for some teams but what's needed here is a power bat.Don't get me wrong Giles would be alright at a much lower price and a couple less years.
CaramonLS - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 10:11 PM EST (#133976) #
Giles is one of the best overall hitters in baseball. I really think you are selling him short.

He still had over 1.000 OPS on the road, one of the very few players to do that. Lets not forget he plays in SD so his numbers might not look amazing on the surface.
westcoast dude - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 10:20 PM EST (#133977) #
It's looking increasingly like NFH will be cutting his locks and becoming a redneckologist. I just don't see any more FAs coming our way.
OK, so maybe Koskie, Rios and Hinske all have career years against all odds. Two out of three? Youneverknow. Hope springs eternal...
Ken MacDonald - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 10:24 PM EST (#133978) #
That's a really good point about Giles playing in SD.I never really took that into account but now that he's off the market lets hope we can pick up some power some where else maybe a move will come out of nowhere and the names involved will be guys we're not even thinking of.
Jacko - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:19 PM EST (#133980) #
Gaudin has one option left.

He was called up in mid-2003 and added to the 40-man roster. But since he was never optioned back to the minors afterwards (i.e. put on optional assignment) none of his options were burned that year.

As silly as it sounds, Hinske has at least one option year left as well.
rtcaino - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:34 PM EST (#133981) #
I dunno Jacko. I dunno.
Jacko - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:35 PM EST (#133982) #
And this will be Dustin McGowan's third option year. (He lost his first to surgery.) I went over the case of McGowan with Will Hill of the Jays last summer as I was trying to make sense of the option rules. McGowan was drafted in June 2000, and pitched at Medicine Hat in 2000. So I wondered, was that his first pro season? In which case, he would have had to be added to the 40 man roster after the 2002 season. Will confirmed for me that McGowan was added to the 40 man in November 2003, which meant that his 2000 short-season did not count as his first pro season. (We get the exact same thing with Rios, one year earlier.)

Oh I think short season years "count". It's just that the rules are different for players who are 18 or younger. They get an extra year in the pros before they need to be added to the 40-man roster. This explains why McGowan (who was drafted as an 18 y.o. high schooler) got four pro seasons under his belt (2000-2003) before he was added to the 40-man.

Purcey and Jackson, who were drafted out of college in 2004 (and were most certainly both older than 18), only get 3 years before they need to be added to the 40-man roster (after the end of the 2006 season).

Rios, who was 18 when he was drafted in 1999, also had four years as a pro before being added to the 40-man at the end of the 2002 season.

Keep in mind that options don't get burned unless you are in the minors while on the 40-man. If McGowan makes the team out of ST in 2006 and stays up the entire year, he'll still have an option left.

Jacko - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:42 PM EST (#133984) #
I dunno Jacko. I dunno.

Well, I guess we'll find out if I'm right or wrong next spring if Gaudin get optioned to AAA. Which, given the current pitching depth on the Jays, is looking pretty likely.

Anders - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:46 PM EST (#133985) #
Somewhat OT I guess. Just read an old article about the Johnny Damon monster contract, specifically the part about him being better than Rickey Henderson. It assumes that Damon plays until age 41, producing the same numbers he did for the last 4 years.

Which seems reasonable to me.

Also, I want a free lunch, if that comes to fruition
King Ryan - Thursday, December 01 2005 @ 11:54 PM EST (#133986) #
I'm quite certain that you're wrong, jacko.

I believe each player has three option years where the team can send the player up and down as many times as they want, but after he's been on the 40 man roster for three years, he's out of options. I don't think it matters how many times a team sent the player down.

Does John Olerud still have options by your definition??
Original Ryan - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:00 AM EST (#133987) #
Jacko is correct. If a player is on the 40-man roster and is not sent to the minors during the year, he does not use an option for that year.

John Olerud does still have options left, although he has enough service time to refuse an optional assignment to the minors.
Thomas - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:01 AM EST (#133988) #
I'm pretty sure Gaudin is out of options. I'm also inclined to trust Will Hill.

And yes....free lunch.
greenfrog - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:08 AM EST (#133989) #
A link to an article (with photos) about AJ's mechanics:

http://www.lookoutlanding.com/story/2005/11/16/162029/67
Jacko - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:20 AM EST (#133990) #
re: Gaudin status

I smell an NFH challenge coming...
CaramonLS - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:31 AM EST (#133991) #
Can't someone just call JP and ask? :)
Named For Hank - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:40 AM EST (#133992) #
I smell an NFH challenge coming...

No, that's Ryan's lunch.

I ain't gonna challenge anybody on the finer details of player movement between AAA and MLB, but feel free to place your own bets. I suggest the loser wear a t-shirt that reads "I DON'T FULLY UNDERSTAND THE RULES OF BASEBALL" or something like that.
Jobu - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:25 AM EST (#133994) #
That's not a bad idea. And any extra shirts can be sent to Phil Cuzzi.


PS. I want lunch.
Paul D - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 07:58 AM EST (#133995) #
That's not how options work Jacko.

Here's a link to the Rob Neyer Primer on options:

http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/1999/0908/46397.html
HoJu - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 08:08 AM EST (#133996) #
Here's an article from the NY Times on the Jays changing their ways this offseason.
Craig B - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 08:59 AM EST (#133998) #
Also horning in on lunch. If we go to Mendy's, and I just get soup, does that count as my lunch?
Jacko - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:15 AM EST (#134000) #
Paul, Neyer is wrong.

Time to open the betting lines. I'll risk a round of beers (pre or post game).

If I'm wrong, I'll buy the first round.

If I'm right, all takers owe me a pint.



braden - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:15 AM EST (#134001) #
In that NY Times article, JP sounds much more willing to deal the ODog than at any other time. Hasn't he previously shot down any chance of trading Orlando?
Craig B - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:17 AM EST (#134002) #
Yesterday I got my copies of The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2006. Don't forget to buy two copies for yourself and one for each member of your family.

I'm biased, but the book is gorgeous this year and the content is awesome. In addition to the THT regulars, and Thomas Ayers from Da Box, we have pieces by Rob Neyer, John Dewan, Alex Belth, David Cameron, Maury Brown, John Weisman, and Matt Welch, and others.

And *two* pieces from Bill James, one on young pitchers and another on Bert Blyleven. This is my second book in which I am a co-author with Bill Freakin' JAMES! Yes, I am excited.

You can order direct from our publisher, Acta Sports.

Or (and Canadians may find this a better option) you can order from Amazon.ca. Chapters doesn't have it yet, I am hoping they will soon.

Forgive this commercial message, but I figured that a lot of you would want to know!

HoJu - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:26 AM EST (#134004) #
In that NY Times article, JP sounds much more willing to deal the ODog than at any other time. Hasn't he previously shot down any chance of trading Orlando?

Yeah, I was thinking the same thing. It seems like trading Hudson is more likely than ever.

Mike Green - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:35 AM EST (#134005) #
I don't think Jacko should be in on the bet. King Ryan says Jacko is wrong about the option rule. Original Ryan says Jacko is right. Here's the bet: if Jacko turns out to be right, Original Ryan changes his handle to Right Ryan (no political insinuations intended) and King Ryan changes him handle to Wrong Ryan for the 2006 season. If Jacko is incorrect, the handles are switched. T-shirts could be part of the deal.

Now as for the free lunch in the event of a breakout Rios year including an OBP of .400 plus, I know this sushi place on King Street...
Paul D - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:42 AM EST (#134006) #
Jakco, there really isn't such a thing as options per say, it's more like option years. You can bounce a player up and down from the minors as much as you want in one year, without using up any 'options' (well, as long as you leave him in the minors for 10 days and follow all the other transaction rules).

John Olerud hasn't had options for over a decade. You use them up by spending time in the big leagues, not by being sent up and down to the minors.
Anders - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:44 AM EST (#134007) #
In my experience, Bloor St.'s the way to go for sushi.

Or we could just find a trendy eatery on Queen St. West. Goodness knows there's enough of them.
Paul D - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 09:49 AM EST (#134008) #
Jacko, here's another link that explains how options work:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_transactions

I couldn't find the link on the MLB website, so this'll have to do.
Original Ryan - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:34 AM EST (#134010) #
Wikipedia is incorrect (I may edit that entry later). The best source I can quote is BTF's Transaction Oracle Dan Szymborski. After doing a quick Google Groups search, I came up with the following explanation from an old usenet post of his:

"If you don't place a player on optional assignment for the entire year, you don't use one of your years. It'll *usually* end up being consecutive years, but you'll always get the occasional Boone or Tomko that are sent down long after 3 years from their first option. It just becomes harder because as service time piles up, you have to get permission from the players."

Marc Hulet - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:35 AM EST (#134011) #
I spoke with Jays director of player development Dick Scott a couple weeks ago and he said Gaudin did in fact still have one option left. Quiroz is out of options, but Scott thinks Quiroz is ready to be a major league backup and they have petitioned the MLB office to get a rare fourth option for Francisco Rosario because he missed a full season due to Tommy John surgery, otherwise he too would be out of options.

Any college player picked in 2004 will have to be added to the 40-man roster at the end of the 2006 season (Purcey, Jackson, etc).

Interestingly enough, Scott also said the Jays have been looking at prospect Joey Metropoulos, normally a first baseman, as a catcher because they want to find a position for him where his bat/power will be most valuable.
Joe - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:45 AM EST (#134013) #
It's been a long time, baby.

Upgrade to Firefox 1.5!

The new version of Firefox is out. It's faster, safer, and more customizable. I highly encourage every Bauxite to give it a try!

Jacko - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:47 AM EST (#134014) #
So Paul, when are you buying me that beer?
smcs - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 10:53 AM EST (#134016) #
It appears Tom Gordon has signed a 3-year, $18 million contract with Philly. They beat out NY and Texas because they offered him to be the closer and guarenteed the third year.
This is all thanks to espn.com

I also want a free lunch.
Paul D - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 11:03 AM EST (#134018) #
So Paul, when are you buying me that beer? ? Hey, I never made any claims about whether or not Gaudin had options, just about how options works. And they don't work like you said, John Olerud has no options left. So, I'll say that you owe me a beer for options, and I'll concede that I owe you a beer for Gaudin, and then we're even. :)
VBF - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 11:22 AM EST (#134023) #
Sorry Anders, but

Lunch at the Marche > Lunch anywhere else.

Fwiw, Josh Towers was on the FAN590 yesterday with Wilner and when asked if he would trade Hudson for a 40 homer, 100 rbi bat, Josh Towers quickly shot back "No Way".

I'm starting to think that Orlando Hudson isn't just a fun, easy going leader in the clubhouse, but that he's impacting the other players lives in a major way. Trading Orlando could have a huge negative impact on the team, no matter who's coming the other way.
DepecheJay - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:03 PM EST (#134026) #
I'm telling you, I don't care about what they get in return, DON'T TRADE HUDSON. There might be a clubhouse revolt if you do so, and you already know that if you trade O-Dog, Vernon will be playing the upcoming season VERY pissed off.

I know some people don't really care too much about intangibles and issues such as this (clubhouse affairs) but trading O-Dog might do only negative things to the Jays.

SAVE O-DOG!!

Either way, I'd bet the guy feels a little disrespected. JP hasn't done anything to get him a new deal and all O-Dog hears about is rumors that have JP talking about how "they've got to deal from a position of strength."

I am an enemy of ANY O-Dog trade. Imagine the Jays of the past few years without him... the single most boring team in the history of Jays baseball.
Jacko - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:10 PM EST (#134029) #
Hey, I never made any claims about whether or not Gaudin had options, just about how options works. And they don't work like you said, John Olerud has no options left.

I should have defined my terms :)

And just for the record, Olerud _does_ have options left. Three of them. He's never spent time in the minors, so he's never been on optional assignment.

Excalabur - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:27 PM EST (#134031) #
Unfortunately wrong. He played for the PawSox briefly this year, his first minor league experience (it was remarked upon several times the first time he played the jays afterwards). I think it didn't use up an option as it was a rehab assignment or something.

Speaking of which, he was on the wavier wire. Why weren't the jays saying 'yes'?h
Jacko - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:56 PM EST (#134039) #
Yep, I thought about that after I posted.

It was a minor league contract so he wasn't on the 40-man roster until they promoted him.
MatO - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 12:56 PM EST (#134040) #
Milb.com has a review of the Jays minor leaguers. Nothing particularly interesting except for some rare videos of key players. The best of the bunch is of Purcey striking out a batter in the FSL ASG with a gorgeous tight curve.
Leigh - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:23 PM EST (#134041) #
I know some people don't really care too much about intangibles and issues such as this (clubhouse affairs) but trading O-Dog might do only negative things to the Jays.

If past actions are any indication, you need not worry that this Jays' Front Office will not give due consideration to 'clubhouse intangibles'. They have clearly demonstrated a willingness to sacrifice certain amounts of talent and production in favour of 'chemistry'. Whether their calculus is right or not is a matter for debate, but you can sleep safely knowing that when they err, it is on the side of 'chemistry'.

John Northey - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:29 PM EST (#134043) #
As to options, as I recall they run out after a certain number of years in the majors, regardless of if a guy is demoted or not. I want to say 5 years but I could be wrong.

Luis Leal was a former Jay who was screwed by this because, as I recall, the Jays felt they had to demote him in '85 due to his time running out, then couldn't bring him back because if they did he'd be in the majors forever or be lost. Turned out to be irrelevant as he never made it back. One of those 'what if' pitchers. 4 years of 100+ ERA+'s along with a 96 in his rookie year. Then in '85 he was 74 (5.75 ERA) and that was it at 28. He was traded in early '87 with Garica to Atlanta and that is the last note on him I have. No sign of minor league stats online for him at the moment beyond the early years.
Leigh - Friday, December 02 2005 @ 01:43 PM EST (#134044) #
Luis Castillo to the Twins for two pitching prospects, per ESPN.
King Ryan - Sunday, June 04 2006 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#148254) #
I must say, fellas.  I'm starting to get a little worried.
Geoff - Sunday, June 04 2006 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#148260) #
hmm.... Don't see a time limit on your offer for people in this thread. I'm in before any exception clauses are made!

Another reason to cheer for Rios!

Rob - Sunday, June 04 2006 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#148268) #
Another OBP watch? Sure, I'm in.
Jdog - Sunday, June 04 2006 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#148272) #
Just posting for free lunch
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