Poor Leo. Perhaps he is a pitching guru, but without Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz, Avery etc., it seems a lot tougher. Inept management investing heavily in duds like Danys Baez doesn't help either. My guess is he's gone after this year.

Leo actually is doing OK.  Baltimore is #5 in the AL for ERA, just behind Toronto.  #3 for their starters.  3 guys with 14/15 starts each suggests Leo knows how to keep them healthy (could use that here).

Baltimore starters with this years ERA+ and lifetime ERA+'s
Bedard - 121 vs 111
Cabrera - 85 vs 92
Trachsel - 112 vs 101
Guthrie - 172 vs 118 (this is his first year over 100)
Burres - 150 vs 155 (has never pitched for anyone else)
Loewen - 124 vs 90 (has never pitched for anyone else)
Wright - 63 (3 starts) vs 90

So two new guys developed under him quite nicely and 3 others are doing darn well.  Just two starters are sucking, one got just 3 starts before they dumped him and the other could catch up with a couple of good starts.

I'd take Leo as a pitching coach anyday.  Although I'd look at the possibility of making him the 'starting pitcher coach' and keeping our current guy as the 'relief pitcher coach' given how the pen is going this year.

I thought I read that Mazzone is a free agent after this season. Shouldn't be any shortage of suitors.

As for the Orioles, blech, what a moribund organization. Their penchant for past prime players is reaping the predictable lack of rewards. Mora was signed to a long-term contract when it was clear his late-age surge was over and he was entering his decline phase (albeit later than most). Huff, Millar, Gibbons, Payton... man that's a lot o' dreck. They may as well move Tejada but they might want to wait for a hot streak to bump up his trade value. I imagine there's a little skepticism over the amount of sheen left on Miggy's star.

That only Perlozzo is out of work this morning says too much about the organization. While he quite often seemed like a deer in the headlights when it came to in-game management (and the state of the team's locker room is well known), he wasn't exactly armed with an arsenal of weapons. There's some shinier brass that needs to be excised.

There's some shinier brass that needs to be excised.

like the owner?

Rebuilding Chapter 11

Clever, Magpie.

I tried to figure out how the O's ended up where they are.  Poor drafts under Syd Thrift in 2000 and 2001 definitely contributed; the club has done a better job since then, but 2000/01 drafts would be in their prime now.  The only player the O's have in his prime is Brian Roberts.  Markakis, Rowell and Wieters could form the basis of a good offensive core in 3 years or so if they can sign Wieters and he and Rowell develop as it appears they will.  Radhames Liz may join Bedard, Loewen and Cabrera in the rotation of the future.   Unfortunately, the latter three may be off somewhere else by that point.  I suppose the best strategy would be a modified Beane- develop the three pitchers this year and next and trade a couple why their value is high. 

The club has underperformed its Pythagorean by 4 games so far, and they are 12-22 in close games.  Perlozzo's decisions haven't helped. 

Losing Loewen and Benson hurt this team, sure Traschel has done well and the offense wasn't going to blow anyone away, but their rotation looked solid going into the season with some serious upside.

More than once in the pre-season I wondered whether we'd see this finish ahead of one (or more) of TOR, BOS, NYY.

Baltimore seems to be prone to extended losing streaks. Since 2002, they've had 8 separate losing streaks of at least 8 games, which is more than even Tampa Bay (until this year, Toronto last had one in 2002). It's very odd. As Jays fans found out already this year, just one losing streak like that during the year is enough to kill off most realistic hopes for the year.

According to TSN.ca, the Blue Jays have placed AJ Burnett on the 15-day DL, and called up Ty Taubenheim to replace him in Saturday's start.

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story/?ID=211276&hubname=

Got to say that of all the minor league options, Taubenheim confuses me the most, as he has arguably had the worst season out the potential callups (Litsch, Banks, Purcey, etc.). Maybe they Jays are counting on his experience last season versus Colorado to help him out this weekend (May 20th, 2006: 5IP, 5H, 3ER, 1BB, 3K).

I mentioned this the other day, but if you look at Taubenheim's splits, he had a horrible May, but was pretty decent in April and is off to a good start in May. The fact he has ML experience is a minor plus, too.

He's as good as any other option, I suppose: Purcey has a sore elbow, Litsch obviously isn't ready, and Banks is perhaps too homer-prone.

Really the Jays are just looking for someone to keep the game close for four innings until they can get to Tallet et al.  This seems as good as any other possibility.  My preference would have been bullpen start, but this will save the pen a few innings.

Any word on who's doing colour commentary on the weekend?

Ty is up due to his last two starts being solid according to the Jays site...

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070619&content_id=2036537&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp&c_id=tor

1-1 with a 2.70 ERA since returning to the rotation. I suspect he was doing something wrong then figured it out (or so the Jays hope). Plus his experience clock was already started awhile ago plus he wasn't that bad last year (1-5 but a 4.89 ERA over 7 starts and 5 relief appearances, ERA+ of 96). He also is getting close to becoming a minor league free agent (after 2008 if I understand correctly) so it really is getting to sink or swim time with him.

I'm not sure where to post this, but John Thomson has been released by the Jays.  Like some people noted, this should save the Jays the $1M they would have had to pay him if he made the Jays roster.  Given his 4.58 ERA in Syracuse, this is probably money well saved.

Just thinking about the All-Star game and how Halladay just might make it.

Surprised?

He has 8 wins now, tied for 4th (depending how others did tonight).  The two leaders are at 10 and locks at the moment for the AS Game.  His ERA is just a touch over 4 at 4.08 and is 22nd in the AL.  Given 7 of the 21 ahead of him have under 5 wins I can't see any of them getting onto the team.  That leaves 14 guys in ERA and just 3 in wins (players and managers favorite stat).  Halladay has just 2 losses, always a plus to AS voters.  He is low on the K list which hurts a little, but not a lot.  He has a great rep which always helps.

Glaus is likely as well, 2nd in OPS for third basemen behind A-Rod.  Rios is the other obvious candidate but while he leads OF's in HR (surprised me) he is just 7th in OPS.  Hmm... I think Rios just might make it.  Casey Janssen is the other candidate but there are a lot of qualified relievers and a few doing just as good if not better than him (20+ IP relievers has 9 guys below 2 for ERA, 5 guys with 30+ IP and ERA below 1.20, although Janssen is the only one below 1.00).

So there are 4 real shots at the All-Star team on the Jays right now.  I doubt Janssen gets there though if anyone else goes as middle guys rarely get put on and I'd say that Okajima is a lock.

   On the Globe website today, Jeff Blair tears a strip off AJ Burnett and says he is failing to do the "heavy lifting" that he is expected to do with a $55-million contract.  He defends Gibbons for his handling of Burnett, he says Burnett is only 26th in the league in pitches thrown, and says Burnett is showing that he "can't be counted on."   He predicts that the marriage between Burnett and the Jays is heading for a bad ending, and it might be best if Burnett opts out of his contract at the end of next year.  

     Some of this, I suspect, is based on Burnett's behavior last year.  I think there are still a lot of lingering questions about whether Burnett really needed to spend so long on the injury list last year.  I assume there are a lot of whispers about Burnett within the Jays organization -- especially with his trip to the DL this year with an injury that seems a little unclear -- and Blair is hearing those whispers.

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20070620.wsptblair20/BNStory/GlobeSportsBaseball

That's an incredibly bitter piece by Blair (maybe he has Burnett on his fantasy team?). Burnett is 26th in the majors in pitches (not the league), despite missing a start already. That's pretty high for a guy who only covered 14IP in his first 3 starts, and left his last start due to pain.

What was he to do, especially coming off a spring where Burnett had no aches of significance and at a time when he looked almost ridiculously fluid throwing the ball and maintaining his velocity.

This is a statement defending leaving him in to throw all those pitches. Apparently he has forgotten that Burnett was rested an extra day during this stretch to protect his arm. There were apparently warning signs. There's nothing wrong with taking out Burnett after 7 in each start, saving him another few warm ups, and a couple dozen pitches. He looks big and strong, and must therefore be pitched until he breaks, at which point he's a wimp? Yeesh.

Ouch.  Looks like Blair has been taking nasty pills from Griffen.

So, is Halladay a wuss for being DL'ed despite never cracking 114 pitches thrown this year?  Last year that wimp Halladay never threw more than 119 pitches.  In 05 he reached 120 once (exactly 120).  In '04 he was above 113 once (124 pitches).  In '03 he was past 114 once (120).  02? The wimp cracked 120 three times (peak of 130 in a came he left after just 6 IP, others were 127 and 120).  In '01 his first big year he reached 120 (125) just once again.

So in 6 1/2 years Halladay has reached 130 once, 7 times over 120 or about once  a year.  AJ does it 2 out of 3 starts (not done by Halladay yet) yet AJ is the wimp. 

Sigh.  The macho attitude of writers is annoying to me.  AJ will rarely give you 9 innings due to the fact he just thows too many pitches.  Complain about him getting a bit more control if you want, but don't say he is a wimp for getting hurt when he throws more than Halladay ever does.  FYI - AJ cracked 100 for 9 straight starts to end the year last year, something I don't think Halladay ever has done (largely because the game ends before he gets there).  To me this is like complaining that Frank Thomas AB's are too long vs Vladmir Guerrero and why won't Frank just swing more like Vlad does.  A sign of not paying attention to the details that make up the player.

     To say that Jeff Blair has a "macho" attitude is, I think, a misreading of what he wrote.   He simply pointed out that Burnett is 26th in the majors in pitches thrown.  Logically, if he was injured by over-pitching, then another 25 pitchers should also be on the DL because they too were abused by their managers.  But those 25 pitchers aren't on the DL, so maybe -- just maybe -- it is unfair to accuse Gibbons of having "broken" Burnett.

     The comparison with Halladay seems a bit silly.   I'll hazard a guess that Halladay has thrown a lot more pitches than Burnett over the past few years, but nobody is accusing the Jays of abusing Halladay.

     I don't think Blair is accusing Burnett of being a wimp.   He does seem to be suggesting that Burnett has been prone to "injury" in the past two years, and these injuries seem to be self-diagnosed, or at least they are matters of subjective perception by Burnett himself, and perhaps the Jays are not convinced that there is objective medical grounds for Burnett's last three trips to the injury list over the past two years.    I'm not sure if Blair is right or wrong about this, but he seems to be reporting what some Jays executives or managers are whispering about Burnett, and I think it's worthwhile for us as fans to be aware that that perception does exist.  We can disagree with it if we want, but it's interesting to learn that some people in the Toronto organization do have this suspicion of Burnett.

I was a little dissappointed in the piece.  I guess Blair isn't perfect - I've seen him be obtuse in the face of reason before, but I can't agree with his assessment here at all.  I'd be willing to bet that even JP/Godfrey have quietly dissapproved of the Gibbons/Arnsberg handling of their $55m man.

That said, I'd be happy with the Burnett signing if he averaged 28 starts per year over his contract.  I think he's pitched quited well and if he has an arm that has to be babied on the DL for a few starts a year, so be it.

Burnett averaged over 114 pitches per start in the nine leading up to his injury start.  He averaged 122 in the three leading up to the injury start.  I'd have a hard time imagining that both numbers aren't amonst the league leaders over the same period.  If the Jays believe that he has the arm to handle being a league leader in pitches per start, I'd sure like to know what they're basing it on.

He simply pointed out that Burnett is 26th in the majors in pitches thrown.  Logically, if he was injured by over-pitching, then another 25 pitchers should also be on the DL because they too were abused by their managers.

Which is a pretty simplistic way for Blair to present it (although he did mention the pitch counts in the three games prior to the injury).  If you pitch 50 in one start where you get bombed and then pitch 150 the next start you're at 200 pitches.  Is that the same as a pitcher going 100 pitches in 2 straight starts?

Burnett's #2 on the pitcher abuse points formula that BP has.  While I don't think that means everything (Livan Hernandez was at the top for years and never got hurt) it does show that he's been used more than other pitchers.  Given that he's had problems in the past with arm injuries I don't know that the Jays should be pushing their luck.

For whatever reason Blair has certain whipping boys on the Jays.  Burnett's one of them and Towers is another.

Wasn't that long ago -- a few weeks, at most -- that Blair was waxing eloquent about Burnett, saying "the guy's growing on me." I guess the growth has been excised.

I've said before: what you see with Burnett is what you get, a guy whose body shuts down every so often no matter if it's pampered or abused. Criticizing AJ Burnett for not being durable is like criticizing Shaun Marcum for not throwing 97 mph. He is what he is.

As for the looming end of the Jays-Burnett relationship, I've taken that as a given ever since JD Drew used his out clause to leverage a hefty raise and leave Los Angeles for Boston. Burnett is going to do exactly the same thing, unless his arm really does fall off altogether and he can't get a better deal elsewhere. If I were JP, I wouldn't count on having Burnett in the rotation beyond September 2008. Mind you, a Halladay-McGowan-Marcum-Janssen-Purcey rotation on Opening Day 2009 wouldn't be the worst thing in the world.

That Burnett's shoulder is sore says more about him than anybody else.

This quote from Blair's piece is partly true, I guess.  Burnett wants to keep pitching even when he shouldn't be, and it is the job of everyone else- the catcher, the pitching coach and the manager- to keep him from falling into this trap.  The overuse of this season took place when Gregg Zaun was out, and we can always hope that with Zaun back, it will not be repeated.

Blaming Burnett for his injuries is tiresome.  It is an attitude I encounter all too often in my work- employers trying to shift responsibility for injuries, at least partly  within their control, onto their workers.  The attitude is no prettier when the worker is making $10 million a year than when the worker is making $20,000 per year.

On another topic altogether, Congratulations to Halladay for reaching 1000 Strikeouts for his career, the 5th Blue Jay to do so. He may pass Hentgen and Guzman by the all-star break to move into 3rd place in franchise history. Likewise Wells is just 2 hits shy of 1000.

Blaming Burnett for his injuries is tiresome. Could not agree more - this is seen over and over again, and not just in Toronto. Look no further than the Cubs, who rode Wood and Prior until they broke and now fans and media constantly complain about how "soft" they both are. As in the Cubs example, Jay's management (Gibbons? Arnsberg?) have to bear the responsibility for this one. And I for one am not convinced that we won't see this mushrooming into something larger - none of us has seen the MRI, but I think we can all recollect similar "sore shoulder, 15-day DL" situations that ended in season-ending surgery (Jason Schmidt, most recently).

The reason for the comparison with Halladay is that _no one_ would ever call Halladay a wimp or begging off when he goes on the DL or comes out of a game.

Halladay and Maddux are pitchers who use low pitch counts to let them go deep when needed.

AJ is more like a young Randy Johnson who you knew would throw 130+ if left in for a full game. Most guys who are like that have their arms fall off at a young age and are never heard from again (see Wood/Prior). Some are freaks of nature and keep going (Johnson/Nolan Ryan). A few are like AJ and notice when it is about to go and take a break until the arm comes back.

I'd much rather get 20-30 starts from AJ each year of his contract than get 20 straight starts and see his arm blow out after a stack of high pitch games.

In the end the comments from Blair remind me of the comments we used to hear about Kelly Gruber. Namely how the player is a wimp and doesn't play through pain and DL's themselves too often. Then, after the players career is ended we learn there really was a problem (Gruber had a neck issue iirc). I wonder if the Jays gave Gruber time off during the season (ie: play 3 weeks, take one off) would he have had a longer career? The same with AJ, if the Jays have him start, say, 10 games then take two weeks off via the DL to rest up then he might be stronger in the long run and the Jays lose just a few starts here and there from him.

I know if I ran the Jays that I'd be getting physical therapists (not just sports related ones) to check AJ out and see what the ideal way to handle him is to minimize the risk of that arm going kablooie. Then I'd follow the plan and not complain about him being a 7 inning pitcher who gets 28 starts a year.

Weren't there stories about Gruber waterskiing or playing tennis while he was on the DL with a bad back?

Weren't there stories about Gruber waterskiing or playing tennis

Waterskiing, I think. Nevertheless, he really did have a neck injury. It really did end his career.

Everybody's different. Pitching hurts, period. Everybody's arm hurts. And everybody's body reacts differently to pain and discomfort.  And Burnett has missed enough time to have possibly become a little skittish about it, although apparently he wants to pitch this Saturday and it's the team that won't let him.

Congratulations to Halladay for reaching 1000 Strikeouts for his career

Just 3619 back of Clemens now.

how the player is a wimp and doesn't play through pain and DL's themselves too often.

Buck Martinez wasn't much of a manager, but he was a pretty good broadcaster. I remember him talking about this situation one time -- it may even have been recalling Gruber's case -- and he said, "There's a difference between playing with pain and playing hurt. No one expects you to play hurt. But at this level, playing with a certain degree of pain is expected of you." His suggestion was that Gruber was one of those guys who simply couldn't perform if he wasn't feeling 100% and pain-free.

It's always different with pitchers, of course, but I think Burnett does react more viscerally to pain than some other players do. Again, I'm not casting aspersions on his manhood or toughness or anything like that -- I'm sure AJ could kick my ass if he was so inclined -- I'm just saying that for some players, pain (and the spectre of injury that lurks beneath it) is a sufficient distraction that it causes them to lose the focus you need to perform in the majors.

We had a discussion about this last year. Burnett chose Active Release Therapy , which is basically the most painful (but effective) way of dealing with the elbow problem he had.  That is a very unusual choice for a person with a low pain tolerance.

Well, don't I look stupid, then. :-)

Maybe he's professionally a wimp, but a masochist in his spare time?