The good folks at Rotohelp are running a series of post-2003 prospect reports on the major- and minor-league fortunes of each ballclub. Yesterday's edition concerned the Blue Jays, but it was rather disappointingly brief and, if I may say so, shallow: not much insight into the players closest to the majors and nothing at all on the prospects in the lower minors. Rotohelp spends more time on some franchises than on others, and it looks like the Blue Jays lost out this year. But I pass it on for your reading interest anyway. This is the first of what should be a number of such organizational overviews that will issue forth this off-season: the ones from Baseball America and ESPN will be the best of them until BP 2004 arrives and the Baseball Primates produce their excellent pre-season analyses.
Yet again, people advocating Delgado be traded. Nobody seems to realise that he's essentially untradeable; at best he's one of the best players in the game, and at worst his salary makes it impossible for anyone to take him on unless the Jays pay his salary (which they just aren't able to do).
Those two factors combined with Delgado's no-trade clause, which he has no reason to waive, make it a certainty that he'll be with the Jays next season. (Personally, I hope he remains with the club after that, but that's up to Rogers and Delgado, not me.)
Those two factors combined with Delgado's no-trade clause, which he has no reason to waive, make it a certainty that he'll be with the Jays next season. (Personally, I hope he remains with the club after that, but that's up to Rogers and Delgado, not me.)
The Rotohelp piece is a fine illustration of how little attention many "knowledgeable" baseball fans and analysts pay to the Jays. Last year's ESPN Hot Stove Heater was almost as disappointing. [self-serving plug] These features make it obvious that Batter's Box is the best source of Blue Jays information and opinion on the Internet.[/ssp]
Jordan, thanks for the link to the fantastic 2003 preview by Craig Burley and Robert Dudek on Primer. It was worth re-reading, and even though it was published there instead of here, supports my claim that our authors know what we're talking about.
When it was published, back in March, Craig had seen Carlos Tosca manage a little more than half a season, but did a remarkable job putting him "into a box". Robert's analysis of the GM was spot on:
J.P. decided to non-tender Jose Cruz, a controversial decision. He took the cash he would have paid Cruz this year and brought in a starting pitcher (Sturtze), an infielder/outfielder who can get on base (Catalanotto), a veteran shortstop (Bordick) and a catcher with some pop in his bat (Myers).
As to the player ratings, it's an inexact science, but my fellow BB authors, who are also on Primer's staff, did a better job of forecasting than the ZiPS Projections. In my comment six months ago, I praised everything else about this great piece, but pointed out, "The Vernon Wells prediction (20 HR, 86 RBI, 268/314/452) is way off, and ZiPS is about half right on Myers (138 AB, 7 HR, 24 RBI) -- double those numbers, based on my patented hunch system."
Lucky guesses, like my ridiculously optimistic 22-7 and Cy Young award preseason prognostication for Roy Halladay. I apologize for not being able to express my evaluations in a formula; they are based on Yogi's Law -- "you can observe a lot by watching."
Jordan, thanks for the link to the fantastic 2003 preview by Craig Burley and Robert Dudek on Primer. It was worth re-reading, and even though it was published there instead of here, supports my claim that our authors know what we're talking about.
When it was published, back in March, Craig had seen Carlos Tosca manage a little more than half a season, but did a remarkable job putting him "into a box". Robert's analysis of the GM was spot on:
J.P. decided to non-tender Jose Cruz, a controversial decision. He took the cash he would have paid Cruz this year and brought in a starting pitcher (Sturtze), an infielder/outfielder who can get on base (Catalanotto), a veteran shortstop (Bordick) and a catcher with some pop in his bat (Myers).
As to the player ratings, it's an inexact science, but my fellow BB authors, who are also on Primer's staff, did a better job of forecasting than the ZiPS Projections. In my comment six months ago, I praised everything else about this great piece, but pointed out, "The Vernon Wells prediction (20 HR, 86 RBI, 268/314/452) is way off, and ZiPS is about half right on Myers (138 AB, 7 HR, 24 RBI) -- double those numbers, based on my patented hunch system."
Lucky guesses, like my ridiculously optimistic 22-7 and Cy Young award preseason prognostication for Roy Halladay. I apologize for not being able to express my evaluations in a formula; they are based on Yogi's Law -- "you can observe a lot by watching."
Looks like I tricked Burley and Dudek too. I still think I can be a good #2 starter for the Blue Jays. Please re-sign me. Please. I'm begging you.
Looks like I tricked Burley and Dudek too
Well, to be fair, you had been a pretty good pitcher before.
Well, to be fair, you had been a pretty good pitcher before.
http://nextbaseball.blogspot.com/2003_09_01_nextbaseball_archive.html
Probably stuff you have already read. But Bryan Smith over at "Wait 'Til Next Year" blog has a pretty good read on Blue Jay prospects. (Homepage link through my name above...)
You'll have to scroll down about 5/6 of the page to his September 8th writing though.
Probably stuff you have already read. But Bryan Smith over at "Wait 'Til Next Year" blog has a pretty good read on Blue Jay prospects. (Homepage link through my name above...)
You'll have to scroll down about 5/6 of the page to his September 8th writing though.
Young, thanks for the link! It's brief, but good. I wouldn't immediately say Rios is Ichiroesque -- he has less speed and more power than Suzuki, not to mention about 8 more inches in height -- but they both appear to be slasher-type hitters with some extra-base power, good speed, and fine defence, and for whom walks are an afterthought. It's an interesting comp.
Jordan, I'm not sold on Ichiro as a comp for Rios. Here's a puzzle for BB readers. What major leaguer came up as a .300 hitting centerfielder, with good speed and defence, medium range power (10 triples, 12 homers) and below average plate discipline, became a corner outfielder in his 30s, by which time he was hitting 30-35 homers annually, and walking a bit more than in his 20s? There's somebody out there who probably matches him.
My best guess is a combination of Curt Flood and Dave Winfield.
My best guess is a combination of Curt Flood and Dave Winfield.