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Bodog has published their February listing of odds for each club to win the 2007 World Series?  The Yankees, Tigers and Mets are most favoured, in that order. I like the A's at 20-1, and the Indians at 28-1.  Among the longshot choices,  the Snakes at 50-1 and the Rays at 200-1 would have some interest.  I am mystified that the Royals are only at 70-1.  Do Kansas City fans bet more than Phoenix fans?

Who would be the choice of Bauxites?  None of us bet, right?

Beating the Odds | 16 comments | Create New Account
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Andrew - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 04:51 PM EST (#163236) #

I have no idea who I would bet on, although Tampa at 200-1 does seem pretty decent. But San Francisco at 10-1? It seems pretty likely that their lineup will be even worse than last year's. No way they're better than Boston, who's 15-1.

Dave Rutt - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 05:00 PM EST (#163239) #
I like the Indians, as well as the Padres at 30:1.
CaramonLS - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 05:53 PM EST (#163249) #
Rangers at 50:1, its a lock.

We all know what happens to Buck's teams after he gets fired.

Pistol - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 06:09 PM EST (#163253) #
I guess I don't see why Tampa Bay would be worthwhile.  They have to be 30 games better this year before they're even a consideration for the wild card.  They're better than other teams with lower odds, but you don't get anything for that.

Of the teams greater than 25:1 I consider these to be value bets (in order):
Padres: 30-1
Indians: 28-1
Rangers: 50-1
Milwaukee: 50-1
Diamondbacks: 50-1

I figure each of those teams have a reasonable shot at the playoffs and if you get that far you have a chance.

Dadey - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 06:21 PM EST (#163258) #

A sawbuck on the Twins please.

timpinder - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 06:28 PM EST (#163262) #
I'll take the Indians at 28/1.  Solid lineup, solid rotation, and they'll have better luck in 2007.  They'll trade for bullpen help at the deadline.  They're my pick out of the AL Central regardless of the odds.
Lefty - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 06:44 PM EST (#163264) #

There goes Billy Beane buying low again.  Shannon Stewart for $2.5, if he reaches incentives. Might be a nice pick-up.

I wonder if Ricciardi had any thoughts of signing Stewart. Probably would have been viewed as a popular move by the average fan and met with derision by the others. 

Mike Green - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 08:18 PM EST (#163273) #
I like the Rays at 200-1, because I can see how they can win.  Kazmir and Niemann could, if everything breaks right for the D-Rays, be an excellent top-of-rotation.  And they've got a whack of young players who could develop.  Do they have a possible MVP candidate like a Yaz from 1967?  Crawford has the right first name, at least.

Tampa's inner defence last year was atrocious, making their pitching look much worse than it was.  They're talking about moving Cantu off second base, and that will really help the pitching staff.  Iwamura is going to be a huge upgrade in this department.

CeeBee - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 08:25 PM EST (#163274) #
I'll take the Blue Jays at 15-1 because I'd rather the Jays win than make money. Well, almost anyway ;) :)
Mylegacy - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 09:28 PM EST (#163277) #

Yanks at 7/2 BUNK!

I'm predicting it here and now, both the Sox FOR SURE and the Jays HOPEFULLY FOR SURE are gonna finish ahead of the dreaded Spankies. There, there, now I feel better.

Michael - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 09:37 PM EST (#163279) #
Note as always these are tough things to bet as they hold you money for a full year and there is a 2/3 markup on your money (I.e., if you were equally betting on every team then you'd win $100 for each $165 you spent.  I.e., the bookie makes $65 for every $165 sold.

Even looking at cleveland at 28/1 (now down to 20/1, possibly because of this thread although no Canadian's allowed on Bodog) if they make the playoffs there is close to a 1/8 chance they win on average.  That means you think that Cleveland makes the playoffs 1 in every 2.5 (for 20/1) or 3.5 (for 28/1) times.  But what of Detroit, Minnesota, or CWS?  In fact if you look at Cleveland's chance to win the division you see it at 4/1 (fourth best) but surprisingly its chance to win the AL pennant is 15/1 (while the WS is 20/1, does the AL dominate the NL that much in a best of 7?).

Looking at it per division is interesting as you can see the probability that the AL East has an implied 40.0% chance of winning the WS, AL Central an implied 37.0% chance, NL Central 27.8%, NL East 22.9%, NL West 20.1%, and AL West 17.3%.  My guess in that list is the NL Central's chances are inflated because of six teams in the division while the AL West is deflated because of only four teams because each team is probably getting a buffer added to the probabilities.  But you can see that with 6 divisions, even if each division "only" had the AL West implied chance that would still be ~1.038 world series winners next year.

The only real way to do even OK at these type of bets is to compare multiple sites and be able to pick and choose the best line from multiple sites to try and overcome the massive vig.  Er, not that my advice should be considered professional gambling advice or anything.

Mike Forbes - Thursday, February 08 2007 @ 09:56 PM EST (#163282) #

Off topic here but I thought this was hilarious.

Wrestling promotion NWA-TNA has a pay-per-view this weekend coming and one of the featured matches is between the team of A.J Pierzynski (yes, that AJP) with current Sox coach and former pro wrestler Dale Torberg against the team of Johnny Damon and TNA wrestler Lance Hoyt.  Pierzynski and Torberg have appeared on many TNA shows (seen on SpikeTV) with Pierzynski nailing Hoyt numerous times with steel chairs.

Am I the only one hoping Damon gets actually knocked out with a steel chair?

Craig B - Friday, February 09 2007 @ 08:54 AM EST (#163308) #
Mike, that is hilarious.  Most contracts these days do not allow players to participate in dangerous off-season sporting activity; it would be extremely funny if AJ and Damon were allowed to participate on the basis that wrestling may be dangerous, but it is in no way a sport.
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