It appears to be confirmed: The Montreal Expos have agreed to trade Javier Vazquez to the New York Yankees in exchange for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera and potentially a third player. The deal will, as is usual these days, be conditional on the Yankees and Vazquez agreeing on what will surely be a rich contract extension. Let the gnashing of teeth begin.
The 3rd player is rumoured to be Choate
I hope it isn't conditional on an extension as I would love to see Vasquez just walk away from the Yanks after this year. On the bright side though, the Yanks now have even less of a farm system and are going to lose a ton of draft picks for signing Sheffield, Gordon and Quantrill
I hope it isn't conditional on an extension as I would love to see Vasquez just walk away from the Yanks after this year. On the bright side though, the Yanks now have even less of a farm system and are going to lose a ton of draft picks for signing Sheffield, Gordon and Quantrill
Here's my comment from the HJ4 thread:
Y'know, distressing as this is from a Jays standpoint -- Vazquez is a guy I don't want to see pitching for a division rival -- it's really not a bad trade for Montreal. They're dealing a very good but expensive pitcher for a very good cheap-as-dirt hitter. I know it'll be framed as the rich Yankees hosing the poor MLB-controlled Expos, but this would be a reasonable trade between pretty much any two teams. I don't know why the Yanks would hold on to Rivera, though -- he's about 17th on the outfield depth chart right now.
I like this deal a little better if it includes Juan (Golf Cart) Rivera, but his minor-league numbers look a lot more like Gerald Williams than Bernie Williams, and he's already 25. He's a useful fourth outfielder with some pop but no plate discipline. Depending on who the third guy is, it could be even better.
But all that said, there's no denying that Vazquez is a young (27), powerful ace who will at least co-anchor the new Yankee staff. There have been some concerns about his arm, but the guy has thrown more than 600 IP the last three years, so he's either a proven workhorse or a candidate for breakdown, depending on your viewpoint.
Overall, it's not an even deal in terms of talent transfer, but it's been a long time since we've seen one of those. Considering Vazquez could have walked away next fall with nothing in return, the Expos did alright.
Y'know, distressing as this is from a Jays standpoint -- Vazquez is a guy I don't want to see pitching for a division rival -- it's really not a bad trade for Montreal. They're dealing a very good but expensive pitcher for a very good cheap-as-dirt hitter. I know it'll be framed as the rich Yankees hosing the poor MLB-controlled Expos, but this would be a reasonable trade between pretty much any two teams. I don't know why the Yanks would hold on to Rivera, though -- he's about 17th on the outfield depth chart right now.
I like this deal a little better if it includes Juan (Golf Cart) Rivera, but his minor-league numbers look a lot more like Gerald Williams than Bernie Williams, and he's already 25. He's a useful fourth outfielder with some pop but no plate discipline. Depending on who the third guy is, it could be even better.
But all that said, there's no denying that Vazquez is a young (27), powerful ace who will at least co-anchor the new Yankee staff. There have been some concerns about his arm, but the guy has thrown more than 600 IP the last three years, so he's either a proven workhorse or a candidate for breakdown, depending on your viewpoint.
Overall, it's not an even deal in terms of talent transfer, but it's been a long time since we've seen one of those. Considering Vazquez could have walked away next fall with nothing in return, the Expos did alright.
I don't think you can really complain about the Expos' end of the deal.
I think the problem arises in what it sympolizes: The Yankees will get what they want 95% of the time. They can outbid anybody when it comes to free agents, and can afford to take on any contract that's grown too rich for another team. They can overpay, and they can eat salary when an overpaid player becomes unproductive.
I know people say that they're old, and the core only has a couple more years... but is there any reason to believe Steinbrenner won't just revamp the team whenever he needs to? If Giambi has another season of bad knees and declining offence, what will the Yankees offer Delgado? Vazquez may be a free agent soon, but the Yankees can give him as much money as he wants.
Stripping the farm system probably won't have too much effect, either; all they need are a prospect or two per year to send off in a trade. (Will Dioner Navarro be in the system after the AS-break?) They can buy any player from a foreign market without worrying about draft picks or trades.
I used to be of the opinion that teams should spend what they want, and the rich men who don't want to spend money should quit complaining about the rich men who do. But the Yankees, and perhaps the Red Sox, are just going so far that I wonder if there's even a chance of a level playing field any more. Yes, the A's are great, but even they don't have to compete with a team spending three times as much or more.
I think the problem arises in what it sympolizes: The Yankees will get what they want 95% of the time. They can outbid anybody when it comes to free agents, and can afford to take on any contract that's grown too rich for another team. They can overpay, and they can eat salary when an overpaid player becomes unproductive.
I know people say that they're old, and the core only has a couple more years... but is there any reason to believe Steinbrenner won't just revamp the team whenever he needs to? If Giambi has another season of bad knees and declining offence, what will the Yankees offer Delgado? Vazquez may be a free agent soon, but the Yankees can give him as much money as he wants.
Stripping the farm system probably won't have too much effect, either; all they need are a prospect or two per year to send off in a trade. (Will Dioner Navarro be in the system after the AS-break?) They can buy any player from a foreign market without worrying about draft picks or trades.
I used to be of the opinion that teams should spend what they want, and the rich men who don't want to spend money should quit complaining about the rich men who do. But the Yankees, and perhaps the Red Sox, are just going so far that I wonder if there's even a chance of a level playing field any more. Yes, the A's are great, but even they don't have to compete with a team spending three times as much or more.
It has to hurt their bargaining position though... every agent in the league knows they can hold the Yanks up for whatever money they want, because eventually Steinbrenner will pony up to get the players he wants.
It's interesting that Choate was thrown in, seemingly at the last minute. See, the Yanks had maxed out the 40-man and still had Quantrill to add, so they needed to make the room. I'm sure that had more to do with it then the Expos actually needing Choate, what with Eischen and Stewart as lefties on the roster already.
Now the Yanks have one roster spot left, presumably for Sheffield. Colter Bean won't be added then. At this point in time, I'd like to remind Mssrs. Ricciardi and Law that Mr. Bean will therefore be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Thank you for your time.
Now the Yanks have one roster spot left, presumably for Sheffield. Colter Bean won't be added then. At this point in time, I'd like to remind Mssrs. Ricciardi and Law that Mr. Bean will therefore be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Thank you for your time.
I thought you had to have your roster finalized a couple of weeks ago when everyone added players from the minors and then after that, the only additions or subtractions could be done through trades and signings, not internal
I really just needed a reason to bring up Colter Bean.
Yep, Colter Bean has a cool name and would make a cool Rule V pick.
My head tells me that this was something that the Expos had to do, given the ridiculous situation that they are in.
My heart isn't co-operating, however; my third-favourite player on my second-favourite team just got traded to the hated Yankees! Grr.
My heart isn't co-operating, however; my third-favourite player on my second-favourite team just got traded to the hated Yankees! Grr.
Oh, that Herman Franks was still managing somewhere so he could Rule 5 Colter and lead to the inevitable headline "Franks & Bean on Menu for [Fill in Team Name Here]"
Colter is apparently 6'6", 255, so how 'bout the nickname "String"?
What does the Expos lineup look like now?
1B Nick Johnson
2B Jose Vidro
3B ?
SS Orlando Cabrera
C Brian Schneider
OF Brad Wilkerson
OF Terrmel Sledge
OF Juan Rivera
You know? This has the makings of a very good lineup. The only hole I see is 3B. Hmmm...maybe they can bring back Tatis. KIDDING. My only hope is that picking up Juan Rivera doesn't mean that Terrmel gets buried in the minors.
1B Nick Johnson
2B Jose Vidro
3B ?
SS Orlando Cabrera
C Brian Schneider
OF Brad Wilkerson
OF Terrmel Sledge
OF Juan Rivera
You know? This has the makings of a very good lineup. The only hole I see is 3B. Hmmm...maybe they can bring back Tatis. KIDDING. My only hope is that picking up Juan Rivera doesn't mean that Terrmel gets buried in the minors.
Good call on Colter Bean, Spicol, he'll be a good flyer for a smart team that doesn't over-value ML service time or over-discount older prospects.
Colter Bean
Aquilino Lopez
Colter Bean
Year Lg. Age ERA G GS IP K/BB K/9 BB/9 HR/9(Had a quick tour in the Eastern League each of the last 3 years - 1, 10, and 4 innings)
2001 FSL 24 1.46 32 0 49 4.28 14.11 3.30 0.00
2002 FSL 25 1.98 46 0 54 3.71 12.95 3.49 0.33
2003 IL 26 2.87 50 0 69 2.59 9.13 3.52 0.65
Aquilino Lopez
Year Lg. Age ERA G GS IP K/BB K/9 BB/9 HR/9
2000 Midw. 25 1.85 39 5 68 3.35 8.87 2.65 0.13
2001 Tex. 26 3.02 42 0 62 3.16 11.43 3.62 0.58
2002 PCL 27 2.39 34 11 109 3.81 8.50 2.23 0.49
Those declining K rate numbers on Bean aren't super-encouraging. Not saying that the Tiger or someone wouldn't be well-served, I'm just saying there's a big difference between his #s and Lopez's.
On Vasquez: Whatever. We knew the Yankees would keep buing the best players. We kne wthe Red Sox would be tough as hell. This is part of the deal. We can still catch them, especially the Yankees, who haven't actually solved any of their relevant problems. They've just further amplified their strengths.
On Vasquez: Whatever. We knew the Yankees would keep buing the best players. We kne wthe Red Sox would be tough as hell. This is part of the deal. We can still catch them, especially the Yankees, who haven't actually solved any of their relevant problems. They've just further amplified their strengths.
I agree, Andrew. Bean hasn't displayed the control that Lopez had, and the PCL is a tougher environment for a pitcher than the IL. Still, I'd like to have Bean in middle relief and see how he fares.
Andrew, much as I hate to say this, I think the Sheffield signing does solve one of the Yankees significant problems. They got poor production out of their corner outfielders. Sheffield represents a significant upgrade over the Mondesi/Rivera/Dellucci/Garcia multi-headed right field mess they had last year. I agree that Vasquez is only filling the spot of the departed Clemens, but they are addressing one of their weaknesses from last year.
Losing Johnson means losing defense at 1st base. Who backs up Giambi when his knees/back gives him trouble? It will also take awhile to see if Vazquez can handle NY pressure. I like Vaz, but now I have to hope he falls apart like Weaver.
Mike:
Yeah. Plus it would be funny to steal one of the Yanks' only remaining prospects. If I was Detroit, I'd definitely do it.
Nigel:
Fair point. I was speaking in more general terms - i.e. "problems" meant defence and youth. You're right that their corner outfield is now stronger. I guess what I was thinking is that it's an offensive upgrade, and it's not like scoring runs was their big problem. That's bad logic on my part, of course. A run is a run.
All the same, we knew this was going to happen. I've not lost confidence in the possibility of a 95-win Jays team in 2005. Or a 90-win team this year.
Yeah. Plus it would be funny to steal one of the Yanks' only remaining prospects. If I was Detroit, I'd definitely do it.
Nigel:
Fair point. I was speaking in more general terms - i.e. "problems" meant defence and youth. You're right that their corner outfield is now stronger. I guess what I was thinking is that it's an offensive upgrade, and it's not like scoring runs was their big problem. That's bad logic on my part, of course. A run is a run.
All the same, we knew this was going to happen. I've not lost confidence in the possibility of a 95-win Jays team in 2005. Or a 90-win team this year.
http://economics.about.com
One thing to keep in mind this year is that the Yankees have to pay an additional 30% in luxury tax for any amount over 120.5 million that they spend. Next year it will be 40% for anything over 128 million.
So the Yankees will be spending more on payroll than just adding up all the salaries would indicate. Here are a few examples:
120.5M becomes 120.5M
130.5M becomes 133.5M
140.5M becomes 146.5M
150.5M becomes 159.5M
160.5M becomes 172.5M
170.5M becomes 185.5M
180.5M becomes 198.5M
190.5M becomes 211.5M
200.5M becomes 224.5M
So if the Yankees spend $200 million on salaries like some speculate, they'll have to pay MLB an extra $24 million in luxury tax.
The luxury tax isn't divvied between all the teams; instead it is split between "player benefits" (50%), "the industry growth fund" (25%), and "developing players in countries lacking organized high school baseball" (25%).
If I were Godfrey, I'd argue like hell that the Luxury Tax revenues from the Yankees and the Red Sox that goes into the Industry Growth Fund should be divided equally between the Jays, Orioles, and Devil Rays, as they are the teams that are directly impacted by Boston and New York going over the luxury tax threshold.
Mike
One thing to keep in mind this year is that the Yankees have to pay an additional 30% in luxury tax for any amount over 120.5 million that they spend. Next year it will be 40% for anything over 128 million.
So the Yankees will be spending more on payroll than just adding up all the salaries would indicate. Here are a few examples:
Yankees Net Salary Expense
120.5M becomes 120.5M
130.5M becomes 133.5M
140.5M becomes 146.5M
150.5M becomes 159.5M
160.5M becomes 172.5M
170.5M becomes 185.5M
180.5M becomes 198.5M
190.5M becomes 211.5M
200.5M becomes 224.5M
So if the Yankees spend $200 million on salaries like some speculate, they'll have to pay MLB an extra $24 million in luxury tax.
The luxury tax isn't divvied between all the teams; instead it is split between "player benefits" (50%), "the industry growth fund" (25%), and "developing players in countries lacking organized high school baseball" (25%).
If I were Godfrey, I'd argue like hell that the Luxury Tax revenues from the Yankees and the Red Sox that goes into the Industry Growth Fund should be divided equally between the Jays, Orioles, and Devil Rays, as they are the teams that are directly impacted by Boston and New York going over the luxury tax threshold.
Mike
I find it interesting that all the media pundits are already saying how the Yankees are just buying more stars, but there are a few things to consider:
1. They have eliminated a number of large contracts from 2003 [Mondesi, Clemens; maybe Pettite, Wells, ...], so they have some money to spend. Other teams do this too.
2. They've gotten equal or better replacements.
3. They have a roster of 25 players (or 40-man, if you prefer), just like every other team. That is, they can't simply acquire all the talent.
So, you have this:
-Clemens, +Vazquez
-Pettite, +Colon (let's assume)
-Mondesi/Rivera/..., +Sheffield (again, let's assume)
etc.
-Johnson, +??? (this one may hurt)
The bullpen acquisitions are a tad expensive, but they're not exorbitant. Gordon and Quantrill do have skill. Let's not discuss Heredia :-)
It may well be that the Yankees will have a cheaper lineup to start 2004 than they did to finish 2003. Possibly a better one, too. Yes, they still have some contracts which no other team would offer (eg - Boone), but this is the luxury they have in the "margin of error" category. (Of course, this also affords them a chance to buy replacements for their injured players too.)
Anyway, I don't really know what my point is, so I'll end it here.
1. They have eliminated a number of large contracts from 2003 [Mondesi, Clemens; maybe Pettite, Wells, ...], so they have some money to spend. Other teams do this too.
2. They've gotten equal or better replacements.
3. They have a roster of 25 players (or 40-man, if you prefer), just like every other team. That is, they can't simply acquire all the talent.
So, you have this:
-Clemens, +Vazquez
-Pettite, +Colon (let's assume)
-Mondesi/Rivera/..., +Sheffield (again, let's assume)
etc.
-Johnson, +??? (this one may hurt)
The bullpen acquisitions are a tad expensive, but they're not exorbitant. Gordon and Quantrill do have skill. Let's not discuss Heredia :-)
It may well be that the Yankees will have a cheaper lineup to start 2004 than they did to finish 2003. Possibly a better one, too. Yes, they still have some contracts which no other team would offer (eg - Boone), but this is the luxury they have in the "margin of error" category. (Of course, this also affords them a chance to buy replacements for their injured players too.)
Anyway, I don't really know what my point is, so I'll end it here.
I find it interesting that all the media pundits are already saying how the Yankees are just buying more stars
Maybe the national/international media is of this opinion but in Montreal this trade has a fairly high approval rating. Though I think they are slightly misled because their theory is that by letting go of Vasquez payroll will open up for new talent. As nice as this would be, MLB will clamp down on their budget and in the end, Expos fans will realize they've been duped. Again.
Maybe the national/international media is of this opinion but in Montreal this trade has a fairly high approval rating. Though I think they are slightly misled because their theory is that by letting go of Vasquez payroll will open up for new talent. As nice as this would be, MLB will clamp down on their budget and in the end, Expos fans will realize they've been duped. Again.
http://economics.about.com
Here's what I've got the Yankees 2004 payroll pegged at so far:
Player Position
Giambi 1B 10.000
Soriano 2B 4.000
Boone 3B 5.750
Flaherty C 0.775
Posada C 6.000
Matsui OF 7.000
Sheffield OF 12.000
Williams OF 12.000
Gordon RP 3.500
Heredia RP 1.800
Karsay RP 5.000
Quantrill RP 3.200
Rivera RP 8.890
Contreras SP 7.000
Lieber SP 2.450
Mussina SP 14.000
Vazquez SP 8.000
Weaver SP 6.250
Jeter SS 17.000
Wilson UT 0.700
TOTAL OWED 135.315
A couple of those are estimates (Vazquez and Soriano). I think I've been pretty conservative with both.
That's 20 players, so the Yankees need to add 5 more players, and you figure some of them aren't going to be cheap. (Colon?)
Their payroll for Luxury Tax purposes is going to be much, much higher. ESPN explains:
"Payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts, $7.6 million per team in benefits, money paid or received in trades and salary owed to released players."
A few of the Yankees contracts are severly back-weighted (Giambi, Jeter), so that's going to hurt them this year as far as taxes go.
Last year their payroll for salary cap purposes was $180.3 million and the Yankees paid $10.8 million in luxury tax.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees had a payroll of $220 million, so they'll end up paying an extra $30 mil in Luxury Tax. That fact doesn't seem to be slowing them down any.
Cheers,
Mike
Here's what I've got the Yankees 2004 payroll pegged at so far:
Player Position
Giambi 1B 10.000
Soriano 2B 4.000
Boone 3B 5.750
Flaherty C 0.775
Posada C 6.000
Matsui OF 7.000
Sheffield OF 12.000
Williams OF 12.000
Gordon RP 3.500
Heredia RP 1.800
Karsay RP 5.000
Quantrill RP 3.200
Rivera RP 8.890
Contreras SP 7.000
Lieber SP 2.450
Mussina SP 14.000
Vazquez SP 8.000
Weaver SP 6.250
Jeter SS 17.000
Wilson UT 0.700
TOTAL OWED 135.315
A couple of those are estimates (Vazquez and Soriano). I think I've been pretty conservative with both.
That's 20 players, so the Yankees need to add 5 more players, and you figure some of them aren't going to be cheap. (Colon?)
Their payroll for Luxury Tax purposes is going to be much, much higher. ESPN explains:
"Payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts, $7.6 million per team in benefits, money paid or received in trades and salary owed to released players."
A few of the Yankees contracts are severly back-weighted (Giambi, Jeter), so that's going to hurt them this year as far as taxes go.
Last year their payroll for salary cap purposes was $180.3 million and the Yankees paid $10.8 million in luxury tax.
I wouldn't be shocked if the Yankees had a payroll of $220 million, so they'll end up paying an extra $30 mil in Luxury Tax. That fact doesn't seem to be slowing them down any.
Cheers,
Mike
Vazquez. VaZquez. VaZquez. VaZquez. VaZquez.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Mike
In your summary you did not include Drew Henson's bloated carcass. Was this intentional? I think he signed a Major League Contract which pays him 2.2, 3.8, and 6.0 million over the next 3 years. These are puny numbers for the Yankees but do they count for the luxury tax?
In your summary you did not include Drew Henson's bloated carcass. Was this intentional? I think he signed a Major League Contract which pays him 2.2, 3.8, and 6.0 million over the next 3 years. These are puny numbers for the Yankees but do they count for the luxury tax?
http://economics.about.com
In your summary you did not include Drew Henson's bloated carcass. Was this intentional?
Nope.. I just completely forgot about him.
Since he's on a major league contract, I assume he'd be included. If he is included, his salary should be around 4 mil / year or so for luxury tax purposes.
Thanks for the tip!
Cheers,
Mike
In your summary you did not include Drew Henson's bloated carcass. Was this intentional?
Nope.. I just completely forgot about him.
Since he's on a major league contract, I assume he'd be included. If he is included, his salary should be around 4 mil / year or so for luxury tax purposes.
Thanks for the tip!
Cheers,
Mike
I'm amazed the Expos didn't hold out for Soriano, too. They could have traded Vidro and Vazquez, and saved even more money.
As great as Vazquez is (and make no mistake that I think he's ultimately a better acquisition than Schilling), the Yankees traded away a future MVP.
As great as Vazquez is (and make no mistake that I think he's ultimately a better acquisition than Schilling), the Yankees traded away a future MVP.
Vazquez is a better long term aquisition than Schilling but I think Nick Johnson is a lot more to give up than Casey Fossum and friends. If Giambi's health becomes an issue the Yankees had better have a backup plan for first base.
Hi there this is my first time ever posting here. Kinda strange that my first post for a Jays-centric site would be a reaction to an Expos trade.
First of all I should say i'm NOT a stathead so most of my stuff will be off the cuff but after looking thru stats on baseball-reference.com.
Anyways when I first saw this I basically cried. (well no I actually moaned) I hate how the Yanks can get anything they want and now they've gotten one of the best starters in all of baseball. The good thing is that they gave up Nick Johnson who I don't think will amount to much anyways. The guy just gets injured far too often. I just don't project him to be any great shakes.
I'm sure that the Yanks will finagle their way into the Delgado sweepstakes after the '04 season. Some way some how. That is if the Jays don't trade him at the deadline.
First of all I should say i'm NOT a stathead so most of my stuff will be off the cuff but after looking thru stats on baseball-reference.com.
Anyways when I first saw this I basically cried. (well no I actually moaned) I hate how the Yanks can get anything they want and now they've gotten one of the best starters in all of baseball. The good thing is that they gave up Nick Johnson who I don't think will amount to much anyways. The guy just gets injured far too often. I just don't project him to be any great shakes.
I'm sure that the Yanks will finagle their way into the Delgado sweepstakes after the '04 season. Some way some how. That is if the Jays don't trade him at the deadline.
I think Johnson will be something special. The injuries are a worry, but .300 .440 .540 for 500 plate appearances a year is still better than .280 .340 .470 for 700. (which is just a random sample, of course.)
Unless the Yanks win the Series this year, I think they will regret this trade.
Unless the Yanks win the Series this year, I think they will regret this trade.
First, as anyone who's read my reactions to Every Yankee Trade Rumor Since 2000 (because they've all involved Nick the Stick) already knows, I didn't want to trade him for anybody.
Now that it's done, though, I guess Javier VazZZquez (thanks, Jonny -- laughed out loud) is just about as good a return as any Yankee fan could hope for.
As for the first base backup plan? The Dallas Morning News reported last week that the Yankees were talking to Rafael Palmeiro. (Nice to back up one potential future Hall of Famer with another). I assume he would not be signed if Lofton is signed, since signing Lofton is a prerequisite to moving Bernie to more DH at-bats, especially with Juan "I'm Not Ruben" Rivera now in Quebec.
On two related notes, Rivera is from Venezuela, not Puerto Rico (as has been reported), so I don't think that played any role in the Expos wanting him. But with Rivera in the fold, couldn't Wilkerson play 3B? I see on baseballreference.com that he hasn't previously, but I'm positive I've seen him play third in a spring training game. Maybe it's a possible Tony Perez moment for the 'Spos.
On the Puerto Rico angle, the Dallas Morning News is also reporting that Montreal is surrenduring Vlad to focus on Juan Gonzalez. If they keep Vidro, they really do have potentially one hell of a lineup.
Now that it's done, though, I guess Javier VazZZquez (thanks, Jonny -- laughed out loud) is just about as good a return as any Yankee fan could hope for.
As for the first base backup plan? The Dallas Morning News reported last week that the Yankees were talking to Rafael Palmeiro. (Nice to back up one potential future Hall of Famer with another). I assume he would not be signed if Lofton is signed, since signing Lofton is a prerequisite to moving Bernie to more DH at-bats, especially with Juan "I'm Not Ruben" Rivera now in Quebec.
On two related notes, Rivera is from Venezuela, not Puerto Rico (as has been reported), so I don't think that played any role in the Expos wanting him. But with Rivera in the fold, couldn't Wilkerson play 3B? I see on baseballreference.com that he hasn't previously, but I'm positive I've seen him play third in a spring training game. Maybe it's a possible Tony Perez moment for the 'Spos.
On the Puerto Rico angle, the Dallas Morning News is also reporting that Montreal is surrenduring Vlad to focus on Juan Gonzalez. If they keep Vidro, they really do have potentially one hell of a lineup.
Unless the Yanks win the Series this year, I think they will regret this trade.
I don't, although I think Nick Johnson is something special.
Aside from what Vazquez adds to the Yankees rotation (Mussina and Vazquez can go toe to toe with any one-two combo in baseball), trading Johnson actually frees Cashman to improve the team further.
Since the Yanks are "stuck" with Giambi for the forseeable future, Johnson's departure means the DH spot is now free for Gimpy Williams.
If they finally sign Sheffield to play RF, with Matsui in LF, Cashman can now go out and trade Soriano to the Royals for Beltran to play CF. With Soriano gone, Aaron Boone's glove can move to 2B.
Not even taking into account the improvement in the rotation and the bullpen, that's a much better team than the 2002 Yankees.
Now, if Cashman and Co. get really ambitious and moved Jeter to 3B, and signed Rey Sanchez to play SS, well, they'd have the best, most balanced team in baseball by a considerable margin.... even if the Red Sox trade for A-Rod (mainly because it'll cost them Ramirez to do it).
I don't, although I think Nick Johnson is something special.
Aside from what Vazquez adds to the Yankees rotation (Mussina and Vazquez can go toe to toe with any one-two combo in baseball), trading Johnson actually frees Cashman to improve the team further.
Since the Yanks are "stuck" with Giambi for the forseeable future, Johnson's departure means the DH spot is now free for Gimpy Williams.
If they finally sign Sheffield to play RF, with Matsui in LF, Cashman can now go out and trade Soriano to the Royals for Beltran to play CF. With Soriano gone, Aaron Boone's glove can move to 2B.
Not even taking into account the improvement in the rotation and the bullpen, that's a much better team than the 2002 Yankees.
Now, if Cashman and Co. get really ambitious and moved Jeter to 3B, and signed Rey Sanchez to play SS, well, they'd have the best, most balanced team in baseball by a considerable margin.... even if the Red Sox trade for A-Rod (mainly because it'll cost them Ramirez to do it).
Not even taking into account the improvement in the rotation and the bullpen, that's a much better team than the 2002 Yankees.
Duh. I meant "2003" team.
Let's assume the Yankees don't resign Pettitte, and don't pull off that Weaver for Brown deal, but they do get Beltran in addition to Sheffield, and decide to move Mr. Clutch to 3B.
Here's how that 2004 team would look:
(R) Jeter 3B
(B) Beltran CF
(R) Sheffield RF/DH
(L) Giambi 1B/DH
(B) Posada C
(L) Williams DH/LF
(L) Matusi LF
(R) Boone 2B
(R) Sanchez SS
RHP Mussina SP
RHP Vazquez SP
RHP Leiber SP
RHP Contreras SP
LHP Weaver SP
LHP Hammond RP
LHP Heredia RP
LHP Quantrill RP
RHP Gordon RP
RHP Karsay RP
RHP Rivera RP
I don't see how the Red Sox could beat them. The lineup 1-6 could score nearly 800 runs on its own.
Duh. I meant "2003" team.
Let's assume the Yankees don't resign Pettitte, and don't pull off that Weaver for Brown deal, but they do get Beltran in addition to Sheffield, and decide to move Mr. Clutch to 3B.
Here's how that 2004 team would look:
(R) Jeter 3B
(B) Beltran CF
(R) Sheffield RF/DH
(L) Giambi 1B/DH
(B) Posada C
(L) Williams DH/LF
(L) Matusi LF
(R) Boone 2B
(R) Sanchez SS
RHP Mussina SP
RHP Vazquez SP
RHP Leiber SP
RHP Contreras SP
LHP Weaver SP
LHP Hammond RP
LHP Heredia RP
LHP Quantrill RP
RHP Gordon RP
RHP Karsay RP
RHP Rivera RP
I don't see how the Red Sox could beat them. The lineup 1-6 could score nearly 800 runs on its own.
There's a problem with using Bernie Williams as a DH. Here are the top DH OPS totals from the AL last season, with Bernie's numbers included.
961 - David Ortiz
952 - Frank Thomas
909 - Dmitri Young
895 - Edgar Martinez
887 - Brad Fullmer
867 - Rafael Palmeiro
858 - Mike Sweeney
827 - Josh Phelps
804 - Erubiel Durazo
778 - Bernie Williams
Granted, Williams was hurt last year, and he's put up much better numbers in the past. But check out his OPS totals over the past several seasons:
997
971
957
917
908
778
That train is heading in the wrong direction. Even if Bernie rebounds halfway, at 36, to stay healthy and post a mid-800s OPS, that still places him in the lower tier of designated hitters. Simply put, Bernie's bat made him one of the most valuable centrefielders around, regardless of his defence. But that same bat, weakened by age and injury, becomes a liability at DH, especially at $13M a year. The Yankees have to hope that stashing the glove will reduce the wear and tear on his body, but IIRC Bernie was rarely injured in the field. Starting in 2004, Williams will become something of a drag on the Yankees, and that will only continue until they foist him off on someone else.
961 - David Ortiz
952 - Frank Thomas
909 - Dmitri Young
895 - Edgar Martinez
887 - Brad Fullmer
867 - Rafael Palmeiro
858 - Mike Sweeney
827 - Josh Phelps
804 - Erubiel Durazo
778 - Bernie Williams
Granted, Williams was hurt last year, and he's put up much better numbers in the past. But check out his OPS totals over the past several seasons:
997
971
957
917
908
778
That train is heading in the wrong direction. Even if Bernie rebounds halfway, at 36, to stay healthy and post a mid-800s OPS, that still places him in the lower tier of designated hitters. Simply put, Bernie's bat made him one of the most valuable centrefielders around, regardless of his defence. But that same bat, weakened by age and injury, becomes a liability at DH, especially at $13M a year. The Yankees have to hope that stashing the glove will reduce the wear and tear on his body, but IIRC Bernie was rarely injured in the field. Starting in 2004, Williams will become something of a drag on the Yankees, and that will only continue until they foist him off on someone else.
I don't see how the Red Sox could beat them. The lineup 1-6 could score nearly 800 runs on its own.
That's a funny bit of logic... Numbers 7, 8, and 9 will still be going up there, and they'll be consuming outs faster than your average LF, 2B, and SS. The lineup 1 thru 9 will score less, not more, than the lineup 1 thru 6.
As for how the Red Sox could beat them, let's play Richard Griffin's favourite lazy assesment game.
I generally prefer the upside of the Sox hitters, I think there's a lot more potential collapses/injuries in the Yankee lineup. And the Yankees better get cracking on the rotation, because they're far behind Boston at this point:
It's unlikely that all 5 Sox starters will indeed outperform their Yankee conterparts, as injuries and breakouts and slumps will come into play... But if I'm building a team for 2004, I pick the Sox starter in all 5 slots. Colon, Millwood, or Pettite would sit 3rd in the Yankee rotation and would give them just one slot advantage over the Sox.
The Yankee bullpen is vastly superior at this point, but Foulke would go a long ways towards a respectable pen in Boston. And Wakefield and Kim should be able to smoothly transition to the pen come playoff time.
That's a funny bit of logic... Numbers 7, 8, and 9 will still be going up there, and they'll be consuming outs faster than your average LF, 2B, and SS. The lineup 1 thru 9 will score less, not more, than the lineup 1 thru 6.
As for how the Red Sox could beat them, let's play Richard Griffin's favourite lazy assesment game.
C Posada Varitek Yanks
1B Giambi Millar Yanks
2B Boone ? Even
SS Sanchez G'parra Sox
3B Jeter Mueller Sox
LF Matusi Ramirez Sox
CF Beltran Damon Yanks
RF Sheffield Nixon Yanks
DH Williams Ortiz Sox
I generally prefer the upside of the Sox hitters, I think there's a lot more potential collapses/injuries in the Yankee lineup. And the Yankees better get cracking on the rotation, because they're far behind Boston at this point:
SP Mussina Martinez Sox
SP Vazquez Schilling Sox
SP Contreras Lowe Sox
SP Lieber Wakefield Sox
SP Weaver Kim Sox
It's unlikely that all 5 Sox starters will indeed outperform their Yankee conterparts, as injuries and breakouts and slumps will come into play... But if I'm building a team for 2004, I pick the Sox starter in all 5 slots. Colon, Millwood, or Pettite would sit 3rd in the Yankee rotation and would give them just one slot advantage over the Sox.
The Yankee bullpen is vastly superior at this point, but Foulke would go a long ways towards a respectable pen in Boston. And Wakefield and Kim should be able to smoothly transition to the pen come playoff time.
Mike, in calculating the NY payroll I think you need to add Bubba Trammel to that list. I think the Yankees owe him something like $5 million for next season. Now, due to his "injuries" maybe insurance applies and he falls off the map for luxury tax purposes, I'm not sure.
On two related notes, Rivera is from Venezuela, not Puerto Rico (as has been reported), so I don't think that played any role in the Expos wanting him. But with Rivera in the fold, couldn't Wilkerson play 3B? I see on baseballreference.com that he hasn't previously, but I'm positive I've seen him play third in a spring training game. Maybe it's a possible Tony Perez moment for the 'Spos.
Only if Guerrero is re-signed. The Expos have stuck with Wilkerson in the outfield through thick and thin, I see no reason they would switch him now. Wilkerson ain't great, but he's one of the few offensive chips the Expos have... there really are only four big-league caliber outfielders ready to start 2004 anyway (excepting Guerrero), and two will be pure rookies, so it's not really a concern. If Pascucci and Sledge both come out hitting, the solution will be to trade someone for a third baseman, but the likelihood of all four outfielders being both ready and healthy aren't large.
The Expos' best option is probably to concentrate on the pitching, and wait to see who is left unsigned as March draws close, and try to pick up a third baseman on an NRI or something. With seven positions spoken for now, they are in a far superior position to last year from a balance point of view (provided they can actually have the courage to play Pascucci and Sledge instead of sitting on them).
I'm not sure that Todd Zeile is retiring; it may be worth bringing him back if there's no interest. Otherwise, I would just plug the hole with Mike Coolbaugh or somebody. Greg Norton might be available, he's a free agent.
Only if Guerrero is re-signed. The Expos have stuck with Wilkerson in the outfield through thick and thin, I see no reason they would switch him now. Wilkerson ain't great, but he's one of the few offensive chips the Expos have... there really are only four big-league caliber outfielders ready to start 2004 anyway (excepting Guerrero), and two will be pure rookies, so it's not really a concern. If Pascucci and Sledge both come out hitting, the solution will be to trade someone for a third baseman, but the likelihood of all four outfielders being both ready and healthy aren't large.
The Expos' best option is probably to concentrate on the pitching, and wait to see who is left unsigned as March draws close, and try to pick up a third baseman on an NRI or something. With seven positions spoken for now, they are in a far superior position to last year from a balance point of view (provided they can actually have the courage to play Pascucci and Sledge instead of sitting on them).
I'm not sure that Todd Zeile is retiring; it may be worth bringing him back if there's no interest. Otherwise, I would just plug the hole with Mike Coolbaugh or somebody. Greg Norton might be available, he's a free agent.
2004 projected Expos lineup with 2004 ZiPS projection (BA/OBP/SLG):
LF Val Pascucci .257/.377/.432
1B Nick Johnson .273/.404/.458
RF Brad Wilkerson .272/.393/.481
2B Jose Vidro .317/.393/.480
CF FREE TERRMEL SLEDGE .299/.380/.482
SS Orlando Cabrera .286/.343/.430
C Brian Schneider .255/.332/.415 (assuming Barrett is traded)
3B Jamey Carroll (the default) .265/.330/.338
This isn't an awful lineup. Sledge can actually run a bit, while Pascucci can't, so it may end up being Sledge at the top of that lineup.
3B options I mentioned were:
Zeile .229/.307/.359
Coolbaugh .231/.312/.444
Norton .251/.325/.455
And some other ones I didn't:
Lamb .268/.344/.360
Stynes .263/.335/.417
Canizaro .246/.322/.393
Chamblee .261/.331/.419
Lopez .247/.314/.377
Palmer .377/.441/only kidding
Easley .235/.305/.380
Gripp .241/.321/.383
Houston .272/.317/.420
Johnson .270/.360/.353
Return of the Son of Shane Andrews : .240/.319/.404
Smith .255/.320/.407
The best options there are a bit ahead of Carroll.
Jeff Deardorff came out with an insanely high ZiPS projection, which I assume is some sort of data error. Presumably a guy who has a career year in his third year of AA is not going to the majors the next year and repeating his performance level.
LF Val Pascucci .257/.377/.432
1B Nick Johnson .273/.404/.458
RF Brad Wilkerson .272/.393/.481
2B Jose Vidro .317/.393/.480
CF FREE TERRMEL SLEDGE .299/.380/.482
SS Orlando Cabrera .286/.343/.430
C Brian Schneider .255/.332/.415 (assuming Barrett is traded)
3B Jamey Carroll (the default) .265/.330/.338
This isn't an awful lineup. Sledge can actually run a bit, while Pascucci can't, so it may end up being Sledge at the top of that lineup.
3B options I mentioned were:
Zeile .229/.307/.359
Coolbaugh .231/.312/.444
Norton .251/.325/.455
And some other ones I didn't:
Lamb .268/.344/.360
Stynes .263/.335/.417
Canizaro .246/.322/.393
Chamblee .261/.331/.419
Lopez .247/.314/.377
Palmer .377/.441/only kidding
Easley .235/.305/.380
Gripp .241/.321/.383
Houston .272/.317/.420
Johnson .270/.360/.353
Return of the Son of Shane Andrews : .240/.319/.404
Smith .255/.320/.407
The best options there are a bit ahead of Carroll.
Jeff Deardorff came out with an insanely high ZiPS projection, which I assume is some sort of data error. Presumably a guy who has a career year in his third year of AA is not going to the majors the next year and repeating his performance level.
Jonny:
Nice game, but it doesn't really take into account how much better/worse either team is at any given position. (When the Yankees are better, they tend to be MUCH better, while only Ramirez and Garciaparra have a substantial advantage over their Yankee counterparts.)
And I'd even question one of your verdicts: Bill Mueller had a great year in 2003, but Jeter (the 3B) is more likely to have a better 2004.
Let's rank those DHs by EqA, not OPS:
Martinez .319
Thomas .318
Ortiz .316
Young .311
Fulmer .304
Palmeiro .291
Sweeney .291
Durazo .285
Williams .281
Phelps .280
Williams still ain't a superstar, but he looks much better by EqA. And yes, he was injured, and while a return to .330 EqA is unlikely, I think he can safely top .290 as a full-time DH.
Besides, when you've got Giambi, Sheffield, Posada, Jeter, (and Beltran in this case), you don't need your DH to do all your heavy lifting.
Williams, unlike Ortiz, is still valuable against lefties.
I also think you're underestimating the back of even a Pettitte-less Yankees rotation. Leiber could easily be as good as Lowe (especially if the Yanks do improve their defense as suggested), and Contreras was very very good during the second half: 2.56 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 6.1 H/9, .6 HR/9 in 45.2 IP. OK, Weaver sucks. But if Karsay is healthy, the Yankees' bullpen is incredible, and Boston can't match that (not without Foulke, at least). Kim isn't worth as much to the Bosox as a starter, but they're too afraid to make him the closer.
Nice game, but it doesn't really take into account how much better/worse either team is at any given position. (When the Yankees are better, they tend to be MUCH better, while only Ramirez and Garciaparra have a substantial advantage over their Yankee counterparts.)
And I'd even question one of your verdicts: Bill Mueller had a great year in 2003, but Jeter (the 3B) is more likely to have a better 2004.
Let's rank those DHs by EqA, not OPS:
Martinez .319
Thomas .318
Ortiz .316
Young .311
Fulmer .304
Palmeiro .291
Sweeney .291
Durazo .285
Williams .281
Phelps .280
Williams still ain't a superstar, but he looks much better by EqA. And yes, he was injured, and while a return to .330 EqA is unlikely, I think he can safely top .290 as a full-time DH.
Besides, when you've got Giambi, Sheffield, Posada, Jeter, (and Beltran in this case), you don't need your DH to do all your heavy lifting.
Williams, unlike Ortiz, is still valuable against lefties.
I also think you're underestimating the back of even a Pettitte-less Yankees rotation. Leiber could easily be as good as Lowe (especially if the Yanks do improve their defense as suggested), and Contreras was very very good during the second half: 2.56 ERA, 9.1 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 6.1 H/9, .6 HR/9 in 45.2 IP. OK, Weaver sucks. But if Karsay is healthy, the Yankees' bullpen is incredible, and Boston can't match that (not without Foulke, at least). Kim isn't worth as much to the Bosox as a starter, but they're too afraid to make him the closer.
Jurgen: Nice use of EqA.
In honour of it being Griffin's game, I did my Yankee-Red Sox comparisons off the top of my head, with no stats in front of me. I probably was a little too generous to the Sox hitters, but as I said I see more potential collapses for the Yankees - decliners and injury concerns and old age. I don't see the Yankee hitting and bullpen advantages overcoming the Boston starting pitching advantage. This can and will change substantially before opening day: The Yankee rotation and the Boston pen will both be substantially upgraded. Let's revisit things have settled a little more.
In honour of it being Griffin's game, I did my Yankee-Red Sox comparisons off the top of my head, with no stats in front of me. I probably was a little too generous to the Sox hitters, but as I said I see more potential collapses for the Yankees - decliners and injury concerns and old age. I don't see the Yankee hitting and bullpen advantages overcoming the Boston starting pitching advantage. This can and will change substantially before opening day: The Yankee rotation and the Boston pen will both be substantially upgraded. Let's revisit things have settled a little more.
Jonny:
I feel more comfortable using EqA now that I can scale it to a stat I can easily calculate/understand, ie. GPA.
Of course, my "nobody can beat the Yankees" ranting assumes they trade away Soriano to get Beltran and then shift Boone to 2B (thus improving their defense considerably, and with Sheffield in the mix, nary a hit on offense). Despite their willingness to deal Johnson for the right price (and make no mistake about it, the Yankees got fair value), I've read rumours that the Yanks are very leery of trading Soriano.
As the two teams stand today, they still seem fairly even.
Cashman may want to add another starting pitcher (Pettitte, Colon, Millwood), but I'd now concentrate on improving the defense to make it easier on the pitchers they already have. And to me that would mean trading Soriano to the Royals for Beltran, and moving Boone to 2B and Jeter to 3B.
I feel more comfortable using EqA now that I can scale it to a stat I can easily calculate/understand, ie. GPA.
Of course, my "nobody can beat the Yankees" ranting assumes they trade away Soriano to get Beltran and then shift Boone to 2B (thus improving their defense considerably, and with Sheffield in the mix, nary a hit on offense). Despite their willingness to deal Johnson for the right price (and make no mistake about it, the Yankees got fair value), I've read rumours that the Yanks are very leery of trading Soriano.
As the two teams stand today, they still seem fairly even.
Cashman may want to add another starting pitcher (Pettitte, Colon, Millwood), but I'd now concentrate on improving the defense to make it easier on the pitchers they already have. And to me that would mean trading Soriano to the Royals for Beltran, and moving Boone to 2B and Jeter to 3B.
People, Derek Jeter is not going to move to 3B. Just ask him.
Anyway, best line of the week so far on this Vazquez deal is from the inimitable Jamey Newberg of the Texas Rangers Newberg Minor League Report (NMLR). Jamey claims that the 35-year-old Brian Cashman traded Nick Johnson in an effort to keep the Yankees' average age higher than his.
Of course, if that were true, they would've demanded El Duque back in the trade and revealed his true age of 53.
Anyway, best line of the week so far on this Vazquez deal is from the inimitable Jamey Newberg of the Texas Rangers Newberg Minor League Report (NMLR). Jamey claims that the 35-year-old Brian Cashman traded Nick Johnson in an effort to keep the Yankees' average age higher than his.
Of course, if that were true, they would've demanded El Duque back in the trade and revealed his true age of 53.
with the adittion of kevin brown the yanks' just raised about 25% for beatin the sox.and if the yankees add spezio as the back up first baseman, it will give them more power on the line up kenny lofton is fast and is a better leadoff man than soriano.as far this is how the
yankee line up looks.
c-posada
1b-giambi/spezio
2b-soriano
3b-boone
ss-jeter
cf-lofton
Rf-sheffield
lf-matsui
sp-brown/vasquez/mussina/lieber/contreras
i dont know how can the red sox beat that.
the only thing they have done is add shilling.big deal the guy is old
hes not even being himself lately.i thin the yanks are going to win the 27'th tittle.
yankee line up looks.
c-posada
1b-giambi/spezio
2b-soriano
3b-boone
ss-jeter
cf-lofton
Rf-sheffield
lf-matsui
sp-brown/vasquez/mussina/lieber/contreras
i dont know how can the red sox beat that.
the only thing they have done is add shilling.big deal the guy is old
hes not even being himself lately.i thin the yanks are going to win the 27'th tittle.
As of right now, I am leaning back towards the Yankees too. But , as mentioned before on this site, the Yankees have more question marks that the wicked Red Sox. Like Bernie, Defense, Brown's back, Giambi's knees, etc...
What happens now with the Yankee? Now with Aaron Boone hurt and maybe out for the season(I hope and pray this doesn't happen)2004 season