Two years ago, we looked at Robin Ventura, Chipper Jones, and Scott Rolen. We're moving Alex Rodriguez from the shortstops to the third basemen this time around. This time, I thought that I'd take a closer look at the offensive contributions of the very good and great third basemen in major league baseball since 1900 at age 30, 32 and 34, and see where Ventura, Jones, Rolen and Rodriguez slide in at each age offensively, before we get to defence.


From top to bottom among the retired players, we have Mike Schmidt, George Brett, Eddie Mathews, Frank Baker, Ron Santo, Ken Boyer, Harlond Clift, Stan Hack, Sal Bando, George Kell, Graig Nettles, Darrell Evans and Brooks Robinson. Let's see how everyone fares at age 30 first:

Player	AB	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG.	OBP	SLUG.	OPS+
Schmidt	4261	283	778	1077	129	59	.259	.375	.525	144
Brett	5307	150	474	358	131	69	.316	.370	.503	141
Mathews	6062	399	1031	976	59	28	.282	.386	.543	152
Baker	3796	58	302	98	187	unknown	.316	.372	.467	150
Santo	6213	279	860	1004	29	33	.280	.366	.478	130
Boyer	3943	170	359	507	79	50	.299	.356	.491	121
Clift	5311	170	991	652	67	42	.277	.394	.452	117
Hack	4063	36	541	257	120	unknown	.302	.387	.406	114
Bando	4595	165	716	728	40	32	.257	.361	.417	127
Kell	5212	47	479	183	46	32	.311	.372	.417	113
Nettles	3707	148	447	489	15	13	.247	.329	.409	108
Evans	3338	147	633	544	46	20	.248	.368	.428	117
Robinson	5846	157	434	574	19	19	.280	.330	.424	110

Here's where A-Rod, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen and Ventura were at age 30:

Player	AB	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG.	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Rodriguez	6767	464	820	1404	241	60	.305	.386	.573	145
Jones	4589	253	759	698	114	38	.309	.404	.544	144
Rolen	4585	231	625	972	92	35	.284	.375	.515	130
Ventura	4542	171	668	659	15	29	.274	.365	.440	117

Alex Rodriguez just finished his age 30 season. Among the third basemen, he is closest to Eddie Mathews. Mathews was a somewhat better hitter in his 20s, but A-Rod came up a year earlier and of course, had more defensive value during his years as a shortstop. As a hitter, Chipper Jones was in the Brett/Schmidt zone at age 30, but was substantially inferior as a fielder. Scott Rolen was in the Boyer/Bando/Santo zone at age 30, and Ventura was somewhere between Darrell Evans and Harlond Clift.

Taking things forward 2 years, here's how the third base greats were doing at age 32:

Player	AB	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG.	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Schmidt	5129	349	958	1279	155	70	.262	.385	.532	150
Brett	6234	193	615	444	140	72	.316	.375	.507	143
Mathews	7051	445	1240	1195	64	34	.277	.384	.526	149
Baker	4853	70	388	138	213	unknown	.311	.367	.449	144
Santo	7232	317	1008	1174	34	37	.280	.367	.474	128
Boyer	5171	218	504	701	92	57	.296	.358	.484	120
Clift	5730	178	1070	713	69	43	.272	.390	.441	116
Hack	5202	49	734	337	140	unknown	.304	.390	.408	120
Bando	5145	192	792	702	60	38	.255	.359	.418	127
Kell	5967	60	563	234	49	35	.310	.371	.415	112
Nettles	4879	217	577	662	28	24	.249	.330	.427	113
Evans	4447	184	829	688	56	32	.248	.365	.420	116
Robinson	7052	196	534	684	22	21	.274	.325	.421	109

Now, let's see how Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen and Robin Ventura fare at 32:

Player	AB	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Jones	5616	310	937	877	118	40	.304	.401	.537	141
Rolen	5106	253	681	1041	99	39	.285	.375	.515	129
Ventura	5599	227	817	859	19	32	.273	.364	.450	117

Chipper Jones remained roughly comparable to George Brett as a hitter at age 32, but couldn't keep up with Schmidt's blistering pace of his early 30s. Scott Rolen who finished his age 32 season in 2006 remains at the top end of the Bando/Boyer/Santo zone. Robin Ventura continued to track Harlond Clift's career very well. Clift's career ended at 32, while Ventura kept on for 3 more seasons.

Now, age 34 for the greats:

Player	AB	HR	W	K	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLUG	OPS+
Schmidt	6191	425	1178	1543	167	85	.265	.384	.535	151
Brett	7102	231	767	536	147	77	.312	.377	.505	142
Mathews	8049	493	1376	1387	66	35	.273	.379	.517	145
Baker	5420	80	432	156	220	unknown	.309	.365	.443	140
Santo	8143	342	1108	1343	35	41	.277	.362	.464	125
Boyer	6334	255	631	859	97	69	.293	.356	.475	119
Hack	6118	55	869	385	150	unknown	.301	.390	.401	119
Bando	6265	226	939	843	67	42	.257	.358	.417	124
Kell	6702	78	621	287	51	36	.306	.367	.414	111
Nettles	5987	264	695	784	30	27	.252	.331	.428	113
Evans	5360	216	966	786	75	40	.251	.364	.419	117
Robinson	8249	234	650	787	23	22	.274	.327	.421	110

Santo's career ended at age 34. Right now, Rolen at age 32 is roughly 6 seasons behind him in playing time. Chipper Jones has now hit 357 homers at age 34, with an OPS+ of 142 in 6,385 at-bats. Robin Ventura continued to plug away with an OPS+ of 117 at age 34 in 6,520 at-bats.

Deeee-fence

Measuring the scale of a third-baseman's defensive contributions is not easy. It is generally considered that third-base lies between the premium defensive positions (C, SS, 2B and CF) and the less-important defensive positions (RF, 1B, LF). How many runs does a good or outstanding third baseman save above an average or replacement one in a season, compared with a similar centerfielder or rightfielder? Shall we look at some metrics for current great defenders and historic ones?

We will start with the current players. For these, we have a choice of a number of metrics. We will start with Chris Dial's rating of the best defensive AL infielders over the last 20 years, the best AL outfielders over the same period and the NL best. Dial uses a modified zone rating over players' career to set the standard. According to Dial, Scott Rolen has been the best defensive third baseman of the last 20 years, saving 15 runs per 150 games with his glove (with admittedly the decline phase of his career to come). Robin Ventura and Matt Williams (Robin Williams and Ace Ventura, shall we call them?) are next at 11 runs per 150 games. Ozzie Smith saved 17 runs per 150 games during the decline phase of his career after 1986. Jose Oquendo and Pokey Reese led the second basemen with 19-22 runs save per 150 games of their careers, while Devon White led the centerfielders with 11 runs saved per 150 games over his career. Centerfielders do appear to suffer a more steep defensive decline than infielders, which may explain this phenomenon to some degree.

Let's tackle this another way. How about we look at the peak performance of the very best at the position. As the players predate our ability to perform zone rating calculations, the metrics are less reliable. The middle infield is Ozzie Smith and Bill Mazeroski. Brooks Robinson is at third base. We will use Baseball Prospectus' Fielding Runs as our metric over the players 3 year peak. Smith and Mazeroski are at 25-27 runs saved above average and 60-65 runs saved above replacement. Brooks Robinson is at 26 runs saved above average and 46 runs saved above replacement. For the centerfielder, it does not matter whether one chooses Willie Mays, Garry Maddox, Devon White or Richie Ashburn. I have not been able to find a player with more than 18 runs saved above average and 45 runs saved above replacement (Ashburn). Among third basemen, Mike Schmidt and Ron Santo are in a similar zone to Robinson at his peak but just a little behind.

The metrics might suggest that third base is as important, or perhaps even more important, defensively as centerfield. And when you think about it, how many routine plays does a third baseman actually have? Depending on the batter's speed, it can range from quite a few to hardly any. The centerfielder, on the other hand, will consistently have routine plays. It is true that a great play by a centerfielder is more spectacular and potentially may save an extra-base hit, but on balance these plays seem to me to arise less frequently than the more mundane difficult play for a third baseman. Regardless whether one buys full into the nature of the spectrum hinted at by the metrics, it does seem to me that it is indeed likely that the defence of a third baseman is at minimum close in importance to the defence of a centerfielder. On a particular team, this will depend on the ground ball/fly ball tendencies of the staff.

To end the defence discussion for now, let's summarize the career runs above average per 150 games using the Dial and FRAA methods for Rolen, Ventura and Jones:

Player	Dial	FRAA
Rolen	15	15
Ventura	11	12
Jones		-15

Chris Dial had Chipper Jones at -6 for 2006. David Pinto had him at 3 outs fewer than expected (or roughly 2 runs).

Time to sum up.

Scott Rolen

Two years ago, I said:

"It is really too early to say too much about Rolen. If he ages normally (better than Santo, but not as well as Schmidt), he should end up with career statistics very similar to Santo. Santo is not in the Hall of Fame, but clearly should be, and the Veterans Committee might very well remedy this omission in the next balloting."

Santo remains the best comparison. Rolen is now 32, and he's 3 seasons worth of at-bats behind Santo. Santo had one so-so season and one poor one and finished his career with the statistics you see above at age 34. There is a good chance that Rolen ends up with a somewhat longer and roughly comparable quality career to Santo. At this point, he is clearly on a Hall of Fame path at least on merit.

Chipper Jones

He was on a Hall of Fame path 2 years ago, and is now, by reason of his bat. Then, Craig Burley took me to task for suggesting that the metrics suggested that Chipper Jones was an average defender. Craig was right. Jones is, and was, below average with the glove.

Alex Rodriguez

Two years ago, I said:

"Rodriguez is on pace to become the second best shortstop of all time behind Wagner (or if he continues as a third baseman for many years, to be competitive with Mike Schmidt for the title of greatest third baseman). Curiously, Wagner converted from third base to short in mid-career, while Schmidt converted from short to third very early in his career. Rodriguez was the first shortstop since Wagner to be one of the top 3 hitters in the league for an extended period. While he was not one of the best hitters in the league last year, there is good reason to believe that he may be one again for another run of years.

Let's try for Alex Rodriguez final career statistics. For the Green projection method, we'll try an orange-tomato soup to steel us for the cold. Saute onions, add cumin and garlic, then canned diced tomatoes, stock and juice and grated rind of one orange. Cook 30 minutes, inhale and pronounce:

2200 runs, 750 homers, 2350 RBIs, .295/.378/.569."

Since then Rodriguez has put in one excellent year with the bat, and garnered another MVP award, and one ordinary (for him) one. Last year, his troubles with the glove caused some to wonder whether he would be moved off third base, but I doubt that he will be. At this point in his career, he is 2500 at-bats ahead of Schmidt, with modestly less impressive rate numbers. Schmidt has a hell of a finishing kick, and A-Rod has his work cut out for him if he wants to win the title of greatest third baseman ever.

We will review the outfielders in December, and then start in on the closers in the New Year.