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Title: Blue Jays Jazz
Published: 1988, independently
Availability: I can't imagine how a book could be any less available
# Pages: 128

Written By: David Driscoll
Who Is: Same guy he was last time

What's It About: It's a look at the Blue Jays going into the 1988 season, using what were state-of-the-art sabremetrics for 1988. There's a recap of the '87 season, a page for Jimy Williams and sections for each individual player, and a bunch of splits.

How's the Writing: As before, Driscoll sometimes tries to get extravagant or cute with the prose, and it comes off as amateurish. The book would be much smoother if someone had told him "less is more". Still, that's not the value of the book; the value of it is the sheer amount of homework Driscoll did in putting the thing together.

Let me open to a random page and I'll illustrate that. Okay, page 60, Ernie Whitt. Driscoll argues here that Whitt should never have been hitting fifth in '87 (eighth would have been better) because the extra at bats and offensive responsibilities take their toll on him, and as a 36-year-old catcher, he needs to take it easy. I don't know about that, but at least it's a fully formed argument and surrounded by data.

Oh: Driscoll must have been proud of this prediction. After Dave Stieb's disastrous 1986 season (7-12, 4.74) and quite mediocre 1987 season (13-9, 4.09), Driscoll's guess for Stieb in '88 was, "Back to the All-Star Game. What keeps jumping in my head is a 17-6 record with a 2.62 ERA and a chance to prove to many how wrong they were in thinking Stieb's career was over." Stieb's actual numbers in '88 were 16-8, 3.04, which is kinda close, but the character of the prediction was entirely right.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, July 07 2010 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#218001) #
a page for Jimy Williams

I haven't seen the book, so can you help me out about the contents of this page. Is it a standard-issue "manager-in-a-box" or a post-modernist blank page? Somehow I am guessing the former, but the latter would work for me.


Matthew E - Wednesday, July 07 2010 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#218004) #
I'll go look at it again tonight.
Chuck - Wednesday, July 07 2010 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#218008) #

I found a dusty old book on my shelves called Jays Jazz by David Driscoll, but it is an analysis of the 1986 season. Perhaps he wrote a few of these suckers? On the cover is an endorsement by no less than Bill James: "Driscoll is one of the most talented and excited young analysts of the game of baseball." For this I paid $15 when a nickel would get you a good stogey (or am I misremembering?).

If it can be trusted at all, my recollections from nearly a quarter century ago were: (a) he seems to have done an awful lot of (tedious) work to compile his statistics, (b) he's trying very hard, (c) he ain't BIll James.

In scanning the book now, it seems especially amateurish on many levels. There were several books like this in the 80's, with many upstarts attempting to emulate Bill James' Abstracts, and they all failed in the same way: the conclusions they drew from their often dubious analyses were stated with an unwarranted level of boldness and confidence, often betraying a lack of true mathematical acumen.

Matthew E - Wednesday, July 07 2010 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#218010) #
He wrote three of them altogether. I already did the one you have; click on the "Library" link and scroll down. The first one was called, I don't know, the Blue Book or something; it's from the year before yours, I think. I don't have it and don't really expect to ever see a copy.

As for the quality of these things, well, sabremetrics had to start somewhere. Driscoll's efforts were quite respectable, all things considered, and I think we're the better for having them.

MatO - Wednesday, July 07 2010 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#218011) #
Googled David Driscoll and found that the 1986 book is available at Amazon.  A couple of copies available for $9.43 (US I assume).  A good copy for $15.  Maybe you can get that $15 back (not adjusted for the time value of money - I don't think a nickel will get you a stogie anymore).
Chuck - Wednesday, July 07 2010 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#218018) #

Driscoll's efforts were quite respectable, all things considered, and I think we're the better for having them.

Granted. It's probably unfair of me to look at work done in 1986 with my 2010 glasses on.

When I occasionally look at the self-published Bill James Abstracts (from before he was in the book stores), I am reminded that who he became is not who he was at the start. The kernel of greateness was there, to be sure, but the staggering growth he would ultimately show was not a foregone conclusion.

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