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Today we look at the prospects rated 20 though 11. For prospects 30-21 click here.

20. David Cooper | 1B

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
21
A-
85
10
1
2
10
16
0
1
.341
.411
.553
2008
21
A
96
10
0
2
10
14
0
0
.354
.415
.521
2008
21
A+
92
9
0
1
10
16
0
0
.304
.373
.435
2009
22
AA
473
32
0
10
59
92
0
0
.258
.340
.389
2010
23
AA
498
30
1
20
52
74
0
0
.257
.327
.442
2011
24
AAA
467
51
1
9
67
43
1
3
.364
.439
.535
2011
24
MLB
71
7
0
2
7
14
0
0
.211
.284
.394



David Cooper is probably the most divisive prospect on our list. With ranks ranging from #3 to #28, the roster doesn't really know what to do with him. Do you believe his fantastic 2011 at Las Vegas, or do you chalk it up to a paradisiacal hitting environment and instead look at his uninspiring AA numbers?

The answer, as always, is somewhere in between. While it's true that Las Vegas makes good hitters look Ruthian, every ballpark has its adjustment factor, and once applied, Cooper still had a very good year. I would point especially to his BB/K ratio (67/43, and significantly better than in past years) and doubles tally (51, second most in the minors, and #1 when you include his seven major league two-baggers).

That said, when it comes down to it, Cooper is just never going to be a star. He's a first baseman who doesn't defend particularly well and doesn't have much home run power, so he pretty much has to do everything else well to even be an average major league first baseman. Realistically he's probably a part-time player who might be able to carve out a major league career if he can hit righties. A lefty bench bat is useful, even one without much positional flexibility, and Cooper could be in the mix for at bats in 2012, especially given Adam Lind's awful second half.

19. Michael Crouse | CF

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
17
Rk
15
0
1
0
3
7
1
1
.133
.316
.267
2009
18
Rk
214
9
4
2
23
53
25
5
.218
.308
.340
2010
19
Rk
107
7
3
4
9
32
9
6
.333
.402
.594
2010
19
A
105
5
2
2
14
35
5
2
.216
.327
.386
2011
20
A
364
26
5
14
44
113
38
8
.261
.352
.475


Michael Crouse is a big athletic outfielder from British Columbia whose†father played in both the NFL and CFL.† Listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, he could pass for either a baseball player or an NFL tight-end.† Crouse also puts that size to good use, as he can hit for average and power, combined with good speed and the ability to play right or centre field.† Crouse also has a strong arm, with the total package he†could be a five tool player.† The Midwest League is a low offense league but Crouse put up an OPS of .827 and stole 38 bases while being caught only 8 times.† The average age in the MWL is 22 plus, and Crouse at age 20 was young for the league and to show the power and speed that he did is a very good achievement.

All of that sounds great, and it could be, but the most important tool is the hit for average tool.† There, Crouse managed to hit just .261 this season and struck out in more than 30% of his at-bats.† Crouse has a max-effort swing, he looks like he is trying to muscle the ball.† A shorter, smoother swing would work well for him and help him cut down on the strikeouts.

Crouse is likely headed to Dunedin next season to continue his outfield partnership with Jake Marisnick and Marcus Knecht.† He was under-age for the Midwest League and, at 21 in 2012, would be under-age for the Florida State League.† If he can generate more contact he could be headed for a nice major league career.


18. Moises Sierra | RF

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
20
A
489
16
5
9
26
114
12
11
.246
.297
.364
2009
21
A+
459
24
2
5
34
66
10
2
.286
.360
.393
2009
21
AA
36
1
0
1
1
8
0
31
.353
.361
..471
2010
22
R
38
2
0
1
4
8
0
0
.265
.342
.412
2010
22
A+
40
1
0
1
1
11
0
1
.162
.175
.270
2011
23
AA
551
19
3
18
39
93
16
14
.277
.342
.436


Moises has been battling injuries in the recent years in the Blue Jays organization, but in 2011 he broke away from his past maladies and put in a good year at double A ball with a .277 average and a .778 OPS, a decent performance in a relatively pitcher-friendly league.† He led New Hampshire with 18 home runs and had a 93 K to 39 BB ratio in 551 PA, posting the best isolated power and second best strike out marks of his career. Sierra is an okay defender in right, though of course we cannot forget his plus, plus, arm, which profiles as the best in the system.

Sierra could head for Las Vegas in 2012 and, if he can refine his approach, look for Moises get a crack at a crowded Blue Jays outfield in the future.


17. Adonys Cardona | RHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2011
17
Rk
10
7
31.2
8.8
0.6
3.4
9.9
4.55


The 17 year-old Venezuelan righty came into 2011 as the #19 prospect in the Jays farm system according to Baseball America.Cardona was given a $2.8 million signing bonus, the highest ever given to a Venezuelan amateur.Instead of making his pro debut in the Dominican Summer League, he made it in the Gulf Coast League this summer and out duelled Luis Heredia, the Pirates top international signing, with three shutout innings of one-hit ball while striking out four June 21.That no-decision was followed by two straight losses, as he allowed six runs over five innings.His first and lone professional win came in relief against the Braves July 9 by scattering two hits and a walk over three innings while racking up three strikeouts.

His ERA was 6.75 in June and 5.28 in July but he turned a corner in August with a 2.45 mark.He enjoyed pitching in Dunedin with a 2.55 ERA but his road mark was 7.07.More positives about Cardonaís season were a 3.14 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) and an ISO (Isolated Power) against mark of .083.

Initial scouting reports had Cardonaís fastball in the 88-91 mph range, touching 93.There was word he was pumping gas as high as 94-95 over the summer.With a long, lean frame of 6-4, 175 pounds, Cardona could add another tick or two to his heater which has the potential to be a plus pitch.His changeup is said to be advanced with some sink but he needs to work on his curveball.Concerns have also been expressed about his delivery.Cardona, who turns 18 January 16, was recently rated as the #8 prospect in the Gulf Coast League by Baseball America.


16. Joel Carreno | RHP

YearAgeLevelGGSIPH/9HR/9BB/9K/9ERA
2008
21
A-
15
13
76.1
8.75
0.71
2.24
10.02
3.42
2009
22
A-

2

2

11.0
4.91
0.00
2.45
9.82
0.82
2009
22
A
14
14
79.2
8.64
0.56
3.28
7.00
3.62
2010
23
A+
27
25
137.2
9.64
0.52
1.96
11.31
3.73
2011
24
AA
24
23
134.2
6.68
0.80
4.54
10.16
3.41
2011
24
MLB
11
0
15.2
6.31
0.58
2.30
8.04
1.15


Somewhat randomly (or not) Joel Carreno ends up in the exact same spot he was on this list in 2010. Normally that might be seen as a bad thing, but given the remarkably talent the Jays are accumulating in their system, holding steady shouldn't be considered a step back. Carreno actually had a good 2011, moving up a level to New Hampshire and putting in a solid season's worth of work.† He didn't quite match his ridiculous K-rates of 2010, and what had been to that point excellent control deserted him as he walked a batter every two innings. Offsetting this though was a remarkable drop in his rate of hits allowed, helped out by a 100 point drop in BABIP against, to a more reasonable .276. As a result Carreno was pretty unhittable, and also succeeded in keeping the ball on the ground, a big plus. A brief relief stint with the Jays to end the year was also a success, as he allowed only 2 runs in 15.2 innings with good peripherals.

Carreno throws in the low 90s and relies heavily on a wicked 80 MPH slider (that Fangraphs misclassifies as a curve), mixing in the occasional change up, which he will have to improve on. If he can continue to keep the ball on the ground and limit his walks, his strong fastball/slider combination should allow Carreno to stick in the majors for a while. However his 2 pitches and lack of status in the Jays organization probable portends to a future in the bullpen, limiting Carreno's future value, for prospect list purposes anyway. There is a chance that he could compete for a rotation spot coming out of spring training, but odds are he'll begin 2012 as part of a refurbished Jays bullpen.

15. Marcus Knecht | LF

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
20
A-
231
18
3
5
26
48
7
1
.268
.345
.437
2011
21
A+
439
34
3
16
67
124
4
3
.273
.377
.474

A 3rd round pick in the 2010 draft, North Yorkís Marcus Knecht was perhaps the centerpiece of Lansingís strong outfield in 2011. Originally drafted by the Brewers in the 23rd round in 2008, Knecht chose to attend Oklahoma State instead. He didnít play regularly for the Sooners, receiving only 12 plate appearances, and transferred to Connors State for the 2010 season, hitting .353. Knecht, who had won the Hit-Run-Throw program as an 11-year-old, also had connections to Andrew Tinnish through the Ontario Blue Jays and the Jays didnít hesitate to select him when he was still on the board in the 3rd round.

Knecht had an even better offensive season this year than he did in 2010. In 2011, Knecht jumped to Lansing and hit .273/.377/.474 for an .851 OPS against a .782 OPS in 2010. At 21, Knecht was at an appropriate level for his age. Knechtís OPS ranked second among Lansing regulars, behind only Jake Marisnick, and he led the team in many offensive categories, such as doubles, homers, RBI and walks. Knecht also demonstrated some offensive capabilities that donít show up in the obvious stats, as he was second on the team with 12 hit-by-pitches and led the team in sacrifice flies with ten (Carlos Perez was the only other batter with at least five). Additionally, Knecht only grounded into four double plays in 528 plate appearances.

One of Knechtís major weaknesses is that he has a below-average arm and it was suggested in college scouting reports that he would be limited to left field if he were to make the majors. Although he played more right field than left for the Doubledays, he made the transition to left field this year, appearing in over 100 of his 111 games in left field for the Lugnuts.

Prior to the draft, scouting reports suggested that Knecht had good bat speed, although his swing was unorthodox and could look awkward. It was also suggested Knecht could get over-aggressive at the plate, but his stats this year donít suggest he had that problem regularly this year. Knecht will probably begin 2012 in Dunedin and will progress as far as his bat takes him.


14. Chris Hawkins | LF

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2010
18
RK
157
9
3
0
15
38
8
3
.255
.324
.350
2011
19
A+
4
0
0
0
0
2
0
0
.000
.000
.000
2011
19
RK+
242
15
6
5
22
46
14
4
.318
.375
.492


The Toronto Blue Jays organization will likely continue to reap the rewards of the 2010 draft for years to come. This well-above-average draft class is mostly known for the pitching prospects that it bestowed upon the organization but a number of exciting offensive players were also acquired, led by Hawkins. A Georgia native, other teams' scouts are already starting to take notice and he was ranked as the 11th best prospect in the advanced-rookie Appalachian League in 2011. Hawkins, who recently turned 20, hit .318/.375/.492 in 269 plate appearances. Although he was a little over-aggressive at times, which is not usual for a young hitter, the left-handed hitter still walked at a decent rate (8.2 BB%). For a blossoming power hitter (.174 Isolated Power rate), Hawkins also controlled his strikeout rate (17.1 K%) reasonably well. He destroyed left-handed pitchers with an OPS of .996 (compared to .823 vs RHPs). The biggest knock on Hawkins would be the questions surrounding his glove. Originally a shortstop in high school, he's also played third base and left field in pro ball. At '6'2'' and 195 lbs, he runs well for his size (14 steals in 18 tries) but his average arm strength will probably limit him to left field as he rises through the minor league system. After two years in short-season ball, Hawkins is ready for the Midwest League and should spend the entire year with Lansing - similar to the approach that the organization took with the likes of Jake Marisnick, Michael Crouse, and Marcus Knecht in 2011.

13. Aaron Sanchez | RHP

Year Age Level G GS IP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 K/9 ERA
2010
18
RK
10
10
25.0
8.3
0.4
6.1
13.3
2.16
2011
19
RK
14
9
54.1
8.8
0.7
4.3
9.3
5.30

Sanchez entered the 2011 season as perhaps the most heralded of the Jays 2010 high school pitching draftees. Since then he has been eclipsed by Noah Syndergaard and Justin Nicolino. That said, Sanchez remains an exciting prospect, though one with a few warts. Sanchez was susceptible to the big inning in 2011, running up pitch counts and his ERA as his control abandoned him. On the flip side, he showed the ability to strike out more than a batter an inning and improved as his year progressed prior to a late season promotion to Vancouver.

Sanchez's upside is higher than most. He reaches the mid-to-upper 90s with his fastball and features a potential plus curve. If he can harness his control, he has the ability to skyrocket up the prospect charts in 2012. Sanchez will likely remain in Vancouver for short season ball.



12. Carlos Perez | C

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
17
DSL
196
10
2
0
52
28
7
5
.306
.459
.378
2009
18
RK
141
11
3
1
16
23
2
5
.291
.364
.433
2010
19
A-
235
11
8
2
34
41
7
3
.298
.396
.438
2011
20
A
383
17
6
3
37
74
6
2
.256
.320
.355


Carlos Perezís steak of three consecutive R. Howard Webster Awards came to an end and heíll spend 2012 trying to set the club record by winning his fourth trophy. More importantly, Perez was unfortunately one of the few highly regarded prospects in Torontoís system to have a disappointing year. Named the best prospect in the NY-Penn League by Baseball America last year, Perez saw both his OBP and slugging percentage drop by over 75 points in 2011 upon his promotion to the Midwest League.

Of the 10 Lugnuts with at least 250 at-bats, Perez ranked 8th in OBP, ahead of only Bryson Namba and Garis Pena, and 5th in slugging percentage. At 20, he was slightly young for the level, but teammates Jake Marisnick and Michael Crouse both had good offensive seasons at the plate at the same age. This was Perezís busiest year, playing 95 games at catcher, 29 more than he did the previous season. Itís very possible that Perez tired with the heavy workload as the year progressed, but you have to really squint at the stats to find evidence of that. His OPS in the first half was .689 and it fell 40 points in the second half. He hit well in April, but got progressively worse in May and June, before rebounding in July and then slumping in August again. I donít know if this is the continuation of an ongoing problem or a potential new trend, but Perez struggled against southpaws to the tune of a .561 OPS and had only four extra-base hits, all doubles, in 119 at-bats against lefties.

Perezís defence has received accolades from nearly everyone who sees him behind the plate. He is a good defensive catcher, possessing soft hands, quick reflexes and the ability to block pitches in the dirt. Reportedly, Perez calls a very good game and is nearly always in sync with his pitchers. His arm was also described as average but accurate and he possesses a quick release. However, there are some warning signs in his defensive statistics, as he threw out 49% of base runners in 2009, 36% at Auburn in 2010 and then 29% in 2011. Furthermore, the opposition attempted more stolen bases against Lansing than any other team in the Midwest League. Twenty-five more steals were attempted against Lansing than any other team, which is more than the difference that separates the second ranked team from the ninth. Also, runners attempted to steal with about the same degree of frequency against Perez as against backup Jack Murphy (1.68 attempts per game and 1.69 attempts, respectively).

This probably sounds too negative. Remember, in his previous three years Perez won the R. Howard Webster Award at each level he was at. In 2010, as a 19-year-old, he had the second-highest OPS for the Doubledays, ahead of a group of older players including Marcus Knecht. At 18, he led all regulars for the GCL Blue Jays in OPS. Heís an athletic, well-regarded defensive catcher who has demonstrated a good approach at the plate, including the ability to use hit to all fields, a strong batting eye and gap power. Thereís still a lot to be excited about here.


11. A.J. Jimenez | C

Year Age Level AB 2B 3B HR BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG
2008
18
RK
47
2
0
0
3
16
5
2
.191
.255
.234
2009
19
A
278
15
1
3
7
72
5
2
.263
.280
.356
2010
20
A
262
22
0
4
18
56
17
4
.305
.347
.435
2010
20
A+
9
0
0
1
0
5
0
0
.111
.111
.444
2011
21
A+
379
29
1
4
28
60
11
2
.303
.353
.417


A.J. Jimenez's numbers won't blow you away upon first glance, but his ranking here is based on two other factors he has going for him: the fact that he's a catcher, and a good defensive one at that, and his age-relative-to-league. Take a look at the following two FSL lines:

Age 20.9, 379 AB: .303/.353/.417
Age 21.2, 263 AB: .259/.315/.411

I'm sure most of you figured out that the first line is Jimenez this season while the second is Travis d'Arnaud last season. Obviously nobody's arguing that Jimenez is nearly as good a prospect as d'Arnaud, but d'Arnaud's breakout is a testament to the importance of considering age-relative-to-league. A prospect who succeeds at a young age compared to his peers is more likely to break out and become a top prospect, as was the case with d'Arnaud, and while it's not the most likely scenario for Jimenez, it shouldn't come as a huge surprise if he continues to improve as he moves up the ladder.

Of course, no prospect is perfect. As a hitter, A.J. hits for average and doesn't strike out a ton but we'd like to see him draw a few more walks and hit for more power. Jimenez is one to keep a close eye on in 2012.

Blue Jays 2011 Top Prospects: 20-11 | 80 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#245289) #
Well done, gentlemen. 

Personally, I like Cooper more than Carreno; I would have thought that Carreno's stock would have dropped some because of his control issues this year. 

MatO - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#245290) #

Michael Crouse is a big athletic outfielder from British Columbia whose father played in both the NFL and CFL. Listed at 6'4" and 215 pounds, he could pass for either a baseball player or an NFL tight-end.

He's a good 30-40 lbs short of being an NFL TE.  Maybe a CFL TE if a team actually employed one.  Next year is a big one for Crouse and the Jays since they have to decide if Crouse warrants a spot on the 40 man roster after 2012.  It's unusual to make a decision like that on a guy likely to be in high A but Crouse was drafted so young and so raw.

Gerry - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#245291) #
Mike, I think Carreno's time in the major leagues improved his standing more than Cooper.   Carreno looked very comfortable in the majors and didn't show many control problems.  I kept waiting for hitters to sit on his slower breaking slider that looks like it's on a tee before dropping, but they didn't.  It looks like the Jays will discuss whether they think Carreno should battle for a starters job or a relief job next season.  It depends on what moves the Jays make over the winter.
Krylian19 - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#245293) #
Cardona has been up to 96 this past summer...and from what I've read his changeup is one of the best in the organization.  I expect a huge year from him in 2012. 
dan gordon - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#245294) #

I have Cooper at 21 and Carreno at 17 on my list.  I figure Cooper's average at about .310 in Syracuse if the Jays' AAA team was still there.  He could develop into a .300 hitter in the majors.  How much power he develops, how he hits lefties, how much his defense improves, will all determine how much of a role he can play at the big league level.  Carreno looked quite good to me in the few times I saw him near the end of the year.  I figure he's in the Jays' bullpen next year.  He could become a quality big league reliever, or, if his secondary stuff improves, he still has a shot as a starter.

That's a good point about Crouse.  Let's hope he has a really good year in 2012 so the team will have no doubts about putting him on the 40-man. 

uglyone - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#245296) #
it's funny.

I read the first guy and my first reaction is "he should be higher". And then I look at the next guy and my reaction is "he should be higher", and then I look at the next guy and the next guy and think the same thing.

I really like every single one of these 11th-20th prospects. I think they're all legit prospects with very real above-average MLB potential.

uglyone - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#245297) #
Count me as another one who sees Cardona as having a chance to have some serious helium next season. He was the youngest pitcher in the org this year and outperformed a whole bunch of older guys considered to be excellent prospects.
bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#245299) #
92-93, I think you may have nailed the top 20.
ayjackson - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#245300) #

Four F-Cats in the EL Top 20.  D'Arnaud (2), Gose (3), Alvarez (10) and Hechavarria (19) represent for the Jays.

An AL scout on D'Arnaud...

"he falls out of bed hitting"

Helpmates - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:23 AM EDT (#245301) #
Eastern League top twenty is up at Baseball America...d'Arnaud, Gose, Alvarez & Hechavarria rank second, third, tenth & ninteenth, respectively.
Forkball - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#245304) #
It's too bad Cooper is limited to 1B and DH.  If he could play a little corner OF or 3B he'd be pretty valuable.  If you're not going to start him, it's hard to have him on a roster with his lack of flexibility and lack of big upside with the bat.

Sierra seems like a candidate to be included in a trade - at a high enough level, has some skills, has an outstanding skill, isn't a top prospect and doesn't seem like he'll fill an immediate spot on the Jays.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#245305) #
The EL Baseball America list is jam-packed with great prospects.  The #1 prospect was Bryce Harper.  Peacock, Turner, Banuelos and Betances were in the #4-#10 slots with Henderson Alvarez.   You would think that there is a good chance that at least 4 of the 10 players have significant major league careers, and 6 would not be a surprise at all.  That number surely is very high for a double A league. 
Helpmates - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:48 AM EDT (#245308) #
Mike McDade didn't make the list, but I'm excited about the prospect of him playing the entire season in his hometown next year.  Perhaps it will inspire him to put together an all-world season.
Jonny German - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#245309) #
I think the most impressive thing about this list being so good is that it's survived a lot of graduation to the majors from last years list:

1. Kyle Drabek
2. J.P. Arencibia
3. Zach Stewart
7. Henderson Alvarez
10. Eric Thames

And of course Brett Lawrie, who came along after the 2010 list.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#245311) #
In the picture, Cardona looks nothing like  6'4", 175 lb.  More like 200 lbs, at least.  Maybe it is the camera angle, or maybe those numbers are from last year. 
John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#245313) #
As a good ol' FYI...
Last years #11-20

Darin Mastroianni got a very brief (1 game) ML glance, Brad Mills had a few games, Joel Carreno did nicely (1.15 ERA in majors), and Brad Emaus got to taste the majors with the Mets but didn't do so well (22 OPS+).
Lylemcr - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#245314) #

"I think the most impressive thing about this list being so good is that it's survived a lot of graduation to the majors from last years list:"

That is a very excellent point.  The Jays graduated a lot of good young players. 

Cardona, at 17 years old, is really interesting.  That is some serious heat and he has some growing left to do.  They might have something special there...

uglyone - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#245315) #
I'm glad that they're at least being consistent with the lists - the EL list is properly rewarding our toolsy prospect there.
jgadfly - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#245318) #
Kevin Ahrens and Chad Beck have been added to the Arizona Fall League's Phoenix roster.
Hodgie - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#245319) #
Baseball America has also posted the minor league averages for each level as well as the overall organization results. The Blue Jays farm system finished the year with the fourth highest winning percentage and led the minors with 4 teams advancing to league finals and the resulting 2 championships. The success is especially impressive given that they are 1 of only 8 organizations with 7 minor league teams to distribute talent across.
hypobole - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#245320) #
It's a real testament to the Jays minor league system when a 24 yr old in his 1st yr in AAA leads the PCL in hitting, yet only ranks as the 20th best prospect in the organization.
ayjackson - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#245321) #

Barring anything unforeseen, I should have the same top 10 as the Box, albeit likely in a different order.

The toughest decision I had was chosing #10 between Norris, Sanchez and Jimenez.

92-93 - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#245322) #
It appears I did, bpoz. Personally I wouldn't have Deck McGuire & Nestor Molina in the Top 10, which points to the organization's strength.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#245324) #
Wow, Gose was ranked really high on BA's EL list.

I think the term "top prospect", like "MVP", depends on the evaluator's definition. Different people will (consciously or unconsciously) weight variables like upside, proven performance, tools versus track record, OBP versus SLG, etc differently.

My bias is more towards younger talent with upside/high-ceiling potential, which probably aligns me with BA more than some other camps (I often agree with John Sickels as well). I tend to rank sentimental favourites like Cooper and McDade lower (ie, guys who have done well statistically in some respects but are unlikely to be above-average MLB players - especially in the AL East, where you need elite talent to win).
China fan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#245325) #
My own bias is towards prospects who move up a level and succeed in improving their numbers despite the tougher competition -- especially at the AA level or higher.  So this means not just the obvious guys (Gose, d'Arnaud, Hechavarria, Hutchison, Molina) but also guys like McDade and Cooper.  If they're improving from year to year, despite stronger competition, I don't think we can assume that they're going to be just an average player or bench player in the majors.  By continuing to improve, they're showing that their ceiling could be higher than we assume.
TamRa - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#245326) #
So far my (tentative) Top 30 overlaps yours in 14 of the 20 names having been mentioned. And it's easy to assume that the 10 not yet named are all on my list as well.

Where we have differed, relative positioning aside, is that i speculated heavily on high-ceiling recent acquisitions (none of the six have actually played in an official game in the organization yet) over lower-ceiling but more likely to make it guys higher in the organization.

for one example, I love Joel Carreno, but I have a lot of difficulty seeing him as anything more than a quality set up guy (with a non-zero chance at becoming a good closer). That's a quality contributor.

But Roberto Osuna is 16 and already  6'3" and 200+ and has mid to maybe top of the rotation ceiling =- so even though he hasn't played yet, i went with the higher ceiling.

Still, I'm loving this info!


greenfrog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#245328) #
McDade moved up a level, but his numbers from 2011 (281/328/457) aren't that much better than in 2010 (267/315/448), and are worse than in 2009 (when he hit 277/336/466). What especially concerns me is the low walk rate: in his four years in the minors, he has walked (in a declining trend overall) 33, 32, 27, and 28 times. That is a big sample size, and it's far below what you need from your first baseman in any division, let alone the AL East.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#245329) #
McDade really doesn't look like a legit prospect to me, unless he realizes his power potential in a BIG way.
China fan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#245330) #

....What especially concerns me is the low walk rate....

On the other hand, Cooper has a very high walk rate, but you've also put him in the McDade category and dismissed his chances at being above-average. Maybe you should differentiate between those two?

As for McDade, his improvement from 2010 to 2011 was admittedly not huge, but he did battle injuries, and the jump in competition was a very big one. I'm not ready to write him off.

Anders - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#245331) #
for one example, I love Joel Carreno, but I have a lot of difficulty seeing him as anything more than a quality set up guy (with a non-zero chance at becoming a good closer). That's a quality contributor.

But Roberto Osuna is 16 and already 6'3" and 200+ and has mid to maybe top of the rotation ceiling =- so even though he hasn't played yet, i went with the higher ceiling.

While I don't disagree with you in principle TamRa, Carreno has already pitched in the majors and it's easy to see how he could be a quality piece going forward, even if it is as a reliever. Osuna is probably 6-7 years from pitching in the Majors, if he makes it (a big if for a pitcher.) Striking a balance between preferring upside or certainty is hard, but for teenagers who haven't pitched I think you are essentially playing a scratch off lottery ticket. There's maybe a 50% chance Osuna will ever make it past AA ball. I'll take the guy that looks like at least a quality major reliever over that every day. The comparison with Cardona and Carreno is more interesting, as Cardona has now got at least part of a season under his belt in a real (albeit Rookie) league. It's happenstance that they ended up beside each other, but also an interesting comparison. I had Cardona slightly ahead of Carreno, and I think for most people they were pretty close.

For what it's worth (and I don't think I'm spoiling too much) Osuna was 31st on out list, though all 8 of us had Carreno higher than Osuna.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#245333) #
While Cooper's walk rate was much better than McDade's in 2011, Cooper is older (he'll be 25 in February), his stats were PCL-inflated, there are questions around his power (he hit only 9 HR despite the .364 BA), he hit only 211/284/394 in the majors (albeit in 81 PA), and his defense looks average at best. Personally, I wasn't wowed by him in the majors, and the scouts don't seem particularly high on him either.

I'm not writing off either player, and I always root for every Jays prospect to perform well and exceed expectations. But when it comes to prospect rankings, I like players who I feel have the best shot at becoming really, really good major-leaguers. For me, McDade and Cooper aren't high on that list. But I respect opinion to the contrary and I hope both players prove me wrong (and I've been wrong plenty of times).
Anders - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#245334) #
On the other hand, Cooper has a very high walk rate, but you've also put him in the McDade category and dismissed his chances at being above-average. Maybe you should differentiate between those two?

Well how good a prospect you are isn't really contingent on your walk rate, or Brian Jeroloman would be an all-star...

I don't think that highly of either McDade or Cooper personally. If you look at the league lines posted by Gerry in yesterday's thread, Cooper basically has average power for the PCL and walked 25% more than the average player. The only difference between him and the average PCL player was the slightly elevated walk level and him having 50 more points of average on balls in play. A basically league average first baseman in AAA at 24 doesn't especially impress me, especially given his poor D. McDade on the other hand has more power, but doesn't walk much and makes a ton of outs. He was slightly better than a league average hitter, but again for a first baseman that doesn't impress me much.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#245335) #
It gets back to the upside vs. likelihood of reaching it issue.  McDade was born in May, 1989.  He has shown significant power (but not this year) and improving (but still not very good) plate discipline.  He apparently is a good defensive first baseman.  He did battle knee injuries this year.  It is easy to imagine him taking a step forward in Las Vegas and hitting quite a bit better at age 23 than JP Arencibia did at age 24 when he broke out.  He could be a very good player, but he will have to take a good size step forward.  He is a first baseman, so this would not be a shock.

Cooper's chance of being a very good player is not as high (primarily due to his age, but also due to his defensive limitation), but it is more likely that he will make some form of major league contribution.

When one rates Justin Nicolino or Aaron Sanchez ahead of A.J. Jimenez (say), one is making the opposite call on this issue.  There may be good reasons to prefer the "high-upside" player in one case and the "more likely" player in another. 

Gerry - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#245336) #
To echo what Mike said, McDade was young for the league and there was the reported knee injury. Up to the all-star game McDade had an 880 OPS, afterwards it was .561.

If you think the 880 is a true reflection of his talent, he deserves the ranking.
China fan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#245337) #

....Well how good a prospect you are isn't really contingent on your walk rate....

Of course I wasn't suggesting anything of the kind. I was just responding to the earlier commenter who had lumped McDade and Cooper together as "unlikely to be above average" and had cited McDade's poor walk rate as evidence for that prediction. My point was that the commenter would have to support his prediction with more than the walk data, since Cooper had a much higher walk rate and yet was being similarly dismissed as a non-prospect.

In suggesting that Cooper shouldn't be written off as a prospect, I'm certainly not citing solely his walk rate. I'm also citing his big improvement from 2010 to 2011 despite tougher competition, the fact that he was the best hitter in the PCL despite being only 24, the fact that he was promoted twice to the major leagues, etc, etc.

I'm not saying that Cooper is a top-10 prospect in the Jays system. I'm just defending him from those who would write off his chances.

greenfrog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#245338) #
I think Brett Lawrie might have something to say about whether Cooper was the best hitter in the PCL this year.
dan gordon - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#245339) #

Cooper was 22 in AA in 2009.  McDade was 21 at the start of the 2011 season, and turned 22 in May, so the ages are similar, but McDade was slightly younger.  McDade hit more than 20 points higher in BA and had 16 HR's to Cooper's 10.  Cooper had about 30 more walks.  Then you have to consider the injury troubles McDade was battling in the 2nd half.  I think a guy who was hitting like he was for the first half when he was 21/22 years old in AA has a lot of upside as a hitter.  I expect he goes to AAA next year and I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a very good season despite being very young for that league.  At the same age (23), Cooper hit under .260 in AA in 2010. 

McDade is a switch hitter and his performance batting right handed needs some work.  Not uncommon for a switch hitter who is so young.  

Gerry - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#245340) #
From today's BA chat re: Gose.

When we discussed Gose and his run-in at Lakewood with a rehabbing Brett Myers, I asked the official if Gose had "unnecessary mustard" and he agreed, so I've had that in my head for a couple of years.


Does anybody remember anything about Gose and Brett Myers?
Forkball - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#245341) #
There may be good reasons to prefer the "high-upside" player in one case and the "more likely" player in another.

Ideally you blend the two in some manner.  I'm probably 2 parts potential to 1 part probability.

The way I would rank players is to simply ask, "given your choice between player A and player B, who would you rather have?" (ignoring ML needs, positional depth, etc..).  Or "who would you rather not give up in a trade between two players?"
Gerry - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#245342) #
I found the answer from a Philly fan site:

I wanted to find out what happened with the critique you got from Brett Myers during warm ups. He took issue with your cap.

Oh, he told me, fix my hat. I kind of yelled back, "What did you say?" He said, "Don't loud talk me!" I mean, he was just trying to help me out. Teach me a lesson. He's much older, been in the game a lot longer, so he knows more than I do. I'm just a young kid, who's out there doing my own thing.


But the cap stayed crooked...

Yeah, the cap stayed crooked. That's just what I do. I'm hard headed.


So, he's trying to teach you something, and you accept it, but don't-

I mean, I understand what he's saying, but I mean I've worn my hat crooked 100-and some games thus far. So that's what I'm'a keep doing, the rest of the year.


Do you think that's something you might want to work on, as far as, accepting criticism from veterans as you move up?

I'm always willing to accept the criticism. I mean, I understand what he was doing and what he did was right. I probably should've fixed my hat, but at this point of the year, I'm'a keep wearing it how I wear it. It works for ME.
Anders - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#245343) #
I think Brett Lawrie might have something to say about whether Cooper was the best hitter in the PCL this year.

Several other players also had better hitting lines in full seasons.

As for McDade vs. Cooper, I have Cooper slightly ahead because at this point I think he has a chance to stick as a bench guy or do the shuttle as a AAAA type player for a couple of years, or posibly succeed in a Petco type environment where his putting the ball in play a lot (but not over the fence) will be more advantageous. I do like McDade's ceiling a bit more than Cooper's, I'm just not sure he gets there.

Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#245344) #
Having a run-in with Brett Myers isn't exactly a red flag.
China fan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#245346) #

....I think Brett Lawrie might have something to say about whether Cooper was the best hitter in the PCL this year....

Lawrie was the best hitting prospect in the PCL, because of his age (very young for the league) and his upside.  But the term "best hitter" is not exactly the same as "best hitting prospect."  Best hitter is usually measured by data, not by projection.  Cooper had the best OBP and the best average in the PCL (ahead of Lawrie in both categories).  Lawrie had the higher SLG and OPS, but he didn't have enough PAs to qualify for the league leaders.  I think the statement that Cooper was "best hitter" is perfectly defensible if we use the official league statistics on batting champions, rather than partial seasons by players who passed through the PCL and are now major-leaguers.

 

China fan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#245347) #

....Several other players also had better hitting lines in full seasons....

I should have said "best hitter by OBP" or something similar, to preclude the quibbling.  I can see the plausibility of the argument that OPS is a better indicator than OBP.  But even by this measure, only 7 players had a higher OPS than Cooper in the PCL this season, and virtually all of them were older than Cooper.  Even by OPS, he deserves a lot of respect, in my view.  And I still think he will develop a little more power in the next season or two, which could convert a lot of his doubles into home runs, which would make him a much more valuable player in the future.

Anders - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#245348) #
I think the statement that Cooper was "best hitter" is perfectly defensible if we use the official league statistics on batting champions, rather than partial seasons by players who passed through the PCL and are now major-leaguers.

Whether he was the best hitter or the fourth best hitter is pretty meaningless, ultimately, but I do think that it's rather clear from looking at the PCL stats that he wasn't the best hitter. He falls short in OPS by a mile, and is behind by a decent chunk in wOBA.

Thomas - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#245349) #
The way I would rank players is to simply ask, "given your choice between player A and player B, who would you rather have?" (ignoring ML needs, positional depth, etc..). Or "who would you rather not give up in a trade between two players?"

I think some rough form of that is how most of us compose our lists. Of course, it's not a perfect approach, as because depending on when the MLB team is in the success cycle and everything, there may be reason to prefer Cooper in one scenario and McDade in another. It's very hard to eliminate those considerations entirely and pretend you are the GM of a blank slate team.

As Mike said, I think we all debate probability vs. projectability, reaching different conclusions and not always the same conclusion about the probable vs. the projectable prospect. It's justifiable to rank, for example, Thon ahead of Ryan Goins and Goins ahead of Kellen Sweeney, weighing the factors different in each case.

China fan - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#245350) #

...He falls short in OPS by a mile....

Really?  A mile?  Cooper had an OPS of .974 (which is pretty exceptional in any league).  The league leader was Bryan LaHair with an OPS of 1.070, which is only about 10 per cent better than Cooper.  And it's worth remembering that LaHair is 29 years old, while Cooper is 24.

Jonny German - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#245351) #
It is easy to imagine [McDade] taking a step forward in Las Vegas and hitting quite a bit better at age 23 than JP Arencibia did at age 24 when he broke out.

Baseball America name JP the #43 prospect in baseball following his season in New Hampshire. Can you easily imagine Mike McDade ranking that high? I can't. I'd be shocked if he made their top 200.
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#245352) #
No, I cannot.  Arencibia was healthy during his half-year in New Hampshire.  The following year in Las Vegas when he was 23, he was not as healthy and hit poorly.  His stock dropped considerably.  He was healthy at age 24, and won a MVP award.

McDade has some of the same strengths and weaknesses as Arencibia, but he is farther along in dealing with his strike zone issues than J.P. was.  Since my bet with Aaron Gleeman, and watching Quiroz, Mathis and Navarro struggle with the bat after having great seasons in double A at a young age, I have enhanced appreciation for the difficulties that catchers have in developing their offensive games.  That is relevant for the appraisal not only of Arencibia, but also d'Arnaud, Jimenez and Perez. 

Anders - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#245354) #
Really? A mile? Cooper had an OPS of .974 (which is pretty exceptional in any league). The league leader was Bryan LaHair with an OPS of 1.070, which is only about 10 per cent better than Cooper. And it's worth remembering that LaHair is 29 years old, while Cooper is 24.

This is becoming increasingly pedantic, so this will be my last post on the subject matter. How old David Cooper and Bryan LaHair are has no bearing on whether they were the better hitter in the PCL in 2012. It makes Cooper a better prospect, but that's not what you said in two separate posts. The average OPS in the PCL was .807 (higher than any league by some 30 points, and higher than in MLB by 90 points), so .974 isn't "pretty exceptional, it's 20% better than the league average. We can quibble on the definition of exceptional, but I find it hard to believe that's it.

I suppose using a colloquialism such as mile to describe the difference between two players is open for debate, but the overall point was that there was a clear difference between Cooper and the league leaders, and 100 points of OPS is a pretty clear distinction.

Anders - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#245355) #
Also that should have been 2011 in the PCL, not 2012. So I guess that wasn't my last thought on the subject matter.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#245356) #
He was slightly better than a league average hitter

He was the PCL batting champion, and walked more than he struck out. With 100 being league average, Cooper posted a 142wRC+. And he was a rookie.

That is elite performance, not average performance.
uglyone - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#245357) #
Cooper was 22 in AA in 2009. McDade was 21 at the start of the 2011 season, and turned 22 in May, so the ages are similar, but McDade was slightly younger. McDade hit more than 20 points higher in BA and had 16 HR's to Cooper's 10. Cooper had about 30 more walks.

.....and Cooper was a dud at that point. That was an awful year that killed most hopes of this first rounder being a prospect, until his huge rebound year this year. That year at AA is not exactly a great thing for McDade to be comparable to, because that was a year which kind of killed Cooper's prospect status. At that point at least we had his first round talent to provide some faint hope for Cooper, but what do we have to provide that for McDade?

Well how good a prospect you are isn't really contingent on your walk rate

Sure it is.
greenfrog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#245358) #
On a lighter note, John Sickels has posted his review of the top 50 hitting prospects for 2011 (it's not a new list; he's checking back on his pre-season top 50). Here's his entry for Brett Lawrie:

"12) Brett Lawrie, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Mashed with the bat, .347/.414/.647 in Triple-A, then .293/.373/.580 with seven steals in 43 major league games. Also adapted rapidly to new position at third base and performed quite well. Superstar in the making. Regarded as an incarnation of Krishna by Hindus world-wide. Chuck Norris fears him. The Most Interesting Man in the World buys him drinks."
stevieboy22 - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#245359) #
"12) Brett Lawrie, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays, Grade B+: Mashed with the bat, .347/.414/.647 in Triple-A, then .293/.373/.580 with seven steals in 43 major league games. Also adapted rapidly to new position at third base and performed quite well. Superstar in the making. Regarded as an incarnation of Krishna by Hindus world-wide. Chuck Norris fears him. The Most Interesting Man in the World buys him drinks."

I think the B+ is hard to understand. He led all American League rookies in WAR and wOBA.
He hit a couple of game winning home runs and had other big game hits.
He has taken well to a new position.
And looks like he might be one of the best players in the game as early next year. I'd bet he's listed in the top 100 on ever fantasy board next year.
Not to mention he was probably one of the top 3 players in the PCL during his time there.

What more could you possibly have asked from him? I think Lawrie is easily an A and probably an A+.


greenfrog - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#245360) #
The B+ was a preseason grade. The comments Sickels added are up-to-date and reflect his current view of Lawrie, ie, he thinks the world of him. He would doubtless be an A or A+ prospect if he were still eligible.
ogator - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#245361) #

  Speaking of Blue Jay prospects, Anthony Gose had himself a day in the Arizona Fall League today going 2/5 with a double, a home run and 3 RBIs. 

 

bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2011 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#245362) #
As I understand it position players have 5 potential tools. A good 1st baseman can probably get by with high grades in 3 tools and not too bad in the others. Prince Fielder is an elite 1st baseman but still Cooper & McDade with improvement here and there can get by on a contender.
Richard S.S. - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 12:50 AM EDT (#245366) #
I can see Joel Carreno (RHP, 6-0-190, 7 Mar. 1987) probably joining Casey Janssen, Jesse Litsch and Carlos Villanueva (3, who might be traded) in the Bullpen next season.   With the one, or two Relievers A.A. will be bringing in from outside, there might not be room for anyone else in a 6-man Bullpen (possibly 1).   In the more predictable 7-man Bullpen, there will be one opening (possibly 2).   I favor Chad Beck (RHP, 6-4-235, 17 Jan. 1985), above all others,  for this position.
92-93 - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:26 AM EDT (#245367) #
I'd add lefty Luis Perez to the list of (RHP) Janssen, Litsch, Villanueva, and Carreno likely to be in the bullpen at some point next year. The thing is the bullpen is actually the only place outside of 2B where the team could add to the 55m payroll, so it may be the area AA chooses to spend some bucks on. That being said there's always the possibility Francisco, Rauch, and Camp go the Frasor route and accept their arbitration offers, limiting AA's ability to mix up the bullpen.
ayjackson - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#245404) #
I can't see Rauch, coming off injury, a) being offered or b) declining arbitration.  He'll be lucky to get signed before Feb 1 next year.
Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2011 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#245436) #
I probably like Cooper more than anyone, but I'd agree he's certainly a hard player to get a handle on.

Is he too old to get much better? Well, he's one year older than Travis Snider, four months older than Eric Thames and I think most of us are still holding out some hope for those guys.

It sure looks like something happened for Cooper midway through 2010 - after struggling through a year and a half at AA, he hit very well in July-August 2010, and carried on this season.

On the other hand, it's always wise to treat a player's second year at a minor league level with some skepticism.

On yet the other hand, while Cooper's BABiP was exceptionally good this season, it had been exceptionally ungood in the past.

On the other, other hand, Cooper hit just 11 HRs this season (AAA and MLB).

On the other, other, other hand, Cooper hit 20 HRs the year before. It's also not unusual for a player to turn 2Bs into HRs as he matures, and Cooper hit 58 doubles this year.

I dunno. I like him, but I like his swing...
hypobole - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#245442) #
Cooper could use another year of AAA to work on his defense, but with McDade ready for promotion, you can only play one 1st baseman at a time. I haven't a clue what the Jays have planned for Coop next year.
Mike Green - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#245450) #
On the other, other, other hand, the Las Vegas hitting environment is especially conducive to hitting doubles and not particularly conducive to hitting homers.  So, for instance, Eric Thames hit 25 doubles and 7 homers in 233 PAs in Las Vegas this year and 24 doubles and 12 homers in 385 PAs in Toronto.  In other words, you can expect the doubles rate to decrease significantly and the homer rate to stay about the same.  Thames had an IsoP of roughly .240 in New Hampshire, roughly .260 in Las Vegas and about .200 in Toronto.  Cooper's IsoP in New Hampshire was about .180 in New Hampshire and about .170 in Las Vegas.  You'd figure that it would be about .150 in Toronto.  If things go well for him, he might hit like an early Mark Grace or John Olerud (something like .280/.360/.430).  Alas, his fielding is nowhere near what these gentlemen did and his age makes it unlikely that he will progress as they did. 

Ryan Day - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#245457) #
Everyone else in the 1b/DH mix is somewhat iffy, so I imagine Cooper will be able to pick up some at-bats, and maybe even steal a full-time job if someone else struggles. At this point, who knows what Lind or Encarnacion will do?
Jonny German - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#245459) #
Encarnacion is very predictable. Given regular playing he'll run so cold people want to release him and so hot people want to sign him to a multi-year deal. At the end the year his OPS+ will settle between 105 and 110.

Lind I agree is unpredictable.

If I'm AA I'd be looking for a first baseman just as soon as I get second base settled. EE would be my RH DH and primary pinch-hitter. Lind would be shipped out. Cooper would be very available if other teams are interested.
bpoz - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#245492) #
greenfrog & stevieboy22, you wrote Bret Laurie has received a Grade B+ by John Sickles.

At the time of the B+ Grade:-
1) I assume he was still considered a prospect. Right or wrong.
2) Does that grade make him a B+ prospect. Can this be cleared up by anyone.

I am asking because this is an opportunity to place players in categories. This could be handy as some sort of reference.
This helps me in the PTBNL issue which always comes up.

We have a long list of prospects handy with details and other prospects to easily compare to.

Here is a short list of players that are no longer considered prospects. Lawrei & Alvarez, Thames, Snider, Louis Perez & Carlos V.

Here is a list of prospects D Cooper, B Mills & Z Stewart ( some ML experience), d'Arnaud, Gose, Sierra, Hutch, McGuire & Jenkins (AA with Good to decent results & ceiling).
Here is a list of HiA and lower league prospects. Marishnick, Noah S, Knecht, Nicolino, C Perez, & M Crouse. then we have Thon & Gus Pierre with V High ceilings. There may be an age difference that has a bearing. Now then... Are all lower league prospects B, C or D but never an A, and if so Bryce Harper is what?

A "D" prospect...my guess is Reider Gonzalez. He has not proved much and is still young enough to be a prospect. IMO Mastro is also a D.

Then this example of a minor trade M Scuturro for K Bell & G Godfrey. R Davis for T Magnuson & D Farquar. No A or D prospects changed hands and the Oakland A's were trading for depth, it is said.

I would not mind a before & after 2011 ranking especially for Gose, N Molina & D Hutchison. Molina C- to B+? or C-,C,C+,B-,B to B+. You know gradual or instantaneous.
Chris DH - Thursday, October 06 2011 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#245506) #

Good stuff as always.  Curious, where did the minor league crew find ISO for minor league pitchers (or double/triple data)? I see a reference to statscorner in the other post but dont see ISO at that site.  Any assistance would be appreciated - thanks!

 

 

MatO - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#245522) #
I read an interview in a LV newspaper with Cooper back in the summer where he said that he had gone back to swing from his college days half-way through his AA season.  I think the implication was that he was trying to hit HR's and he had changed his normal swing to try and do that.
Wedding Singer - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#245525) #

Can we please stop being so down on Adam Lind? The guy had a BABIP of .265 last year. His expected BABIP was .326. That's a .061 difference, putting him in the top 10 of unluckiest players last year. A "normalized" batting line for Lind last year would have been .290/.335/.490, giving him an .825 OPS. That would have ranked him 10th among first basemen in the majors last year, just behind Ryan Howard and Mark Teixeira. I think the Jays would be just fine with a 1B providing top 10 production given their above-average expected production coming from other parts of the diamond. I think AA knows this, and Lind isn't going anywhere.

James W - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#245528) #
Well there's a level of woulda-coulda-shoulda, and then there's a level of a .287 OBP in 2010, and an improvement all the way to .295 for 2011. That's a darn good reason to be down on Adam Lind.
Mike Green - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#245529) #
Lind has a career RC+ of 104 with a career BABIP of .295.  The career BABIP is not really surprising considering his lack of speed. Without making any discount for his poor 2010-11, his performance is significantly below average for an everyday first baseman.  Basically he hits about as well as Overbay did when he was here, but lacks Overbay's defensive abilities.  The package should be easy to improve on. 

Wedding Singer - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#245533) #

Lind's career xBABIP is .319, a number that is supported by a career line drive percentage of almost 20%. His BABIP in 2008 and 2009, his two best years, was .317 and .323. Its not unheard of for a player to experience two straight years of terrible luck, which has to at least partly explain Lind's more recent performance.

I'm not Lind's biggest fan. His low walk rate in particular is a source of frustration. That being said, if his BABIP normalizes to expected levels, he's a border-line top 10 first basemen measured by OPS.  His defence was close to leauge average for a 1B this year, and with a bit more experience will likely become at least league average. Its an area that could be upgraded, but IMHO its not the glaring need that it appears to be.

92-93 - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#245536) #
It's the only glaring need on offense other than 2B. The LF (.244/.295/.382) and CF production (.213/.255/.341) were pathetic this year but the replacements to improve on that (Rasmus, Thames, Snider, etc.) are already in place. 1B & 2B are the only positions where the team can make significant improvements just by hitting the FA market - other than the pitching.
MatO - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#245539) #
I don't think Lind's BABIP is any surprise considering his 2B rate fell off a cliff.  It looks like whenever he hit the ball hard it went over the fence.
Mike Green - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 12:42 PM EDT (#245540) #
Wedding Singer, at the career level after 2500 PAs, xBABIP is of no use whatsoever.  xBABIP is a predictive tool which is useful with a sample size of 500, but not so much after 2000.  At Lind's age, BABIP will fall, on average, anyway, and if he posts a BABIP over .300 in 2012, that would be an indicator of "good luck", as much as this year's .275 was an indicator of bad luck. 

Where xBABIP is very helpful is for a real outlier like Bautista's 2010.  He hit all those homers, but his BABIP was .233.  xBABIP correctly identified that extreme bad luck played a role in that, and that he could be expected to be significantly better in that department in 2011. 

Incidentally, if you use BBRef's career splits for LInd, it shows that he has a .753 batting average on line drives (average), a .277 average on fly balls (average) and a .197 average on ground balls (very poor).  He hits the ball on the ground quite a bit (43% of balls in play according to his career), and because he runs so poorly, infielders can play deeper for him than they might for someone else. I don't know how they calculate xBABIP, but if you don't adjust xBA on ground balls very significantly for speed, you will get the wrong answer.  Rajai Davis has a .307 career average on ground balls while JP Arencibia so far is at .172.  That is not an accident. 

China fan - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#245550) #

Mike, that's a fascinating analysis, and very helpful in understanding Lind's problems in the past two years.  Thank you.

Wedding Singer - Friday, October 07 2011 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#245562) #

Mike, I appreciate your analysis. One question: where do you find the "league average" values for BABIP for ground balls, line drives, fly balls?

 

Mike Green - Saturday, October 08 2011 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#245597) #
You're welcome.  The 2011 AL figures (.239 for ground balls; .220 for fly balls and .728 for line drives) are here.  You have to scroll down quite a bit.  Bear in mind that these are batting averages rather than BABIPs, and so Lind would be expected to have higher than average figures for fly balls particularly and line drives because he hits more homers than average.  You could check the BABIP figures if you wanted to be precise.

The figures for line drives have fallen about five points from 5-7 years ago. 
Chris DH - Monday, October 17 2011 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#245871) #

Hi - I didnt see a response to my question.

ISO against in referenced for RHP Adonis Cardona.  I was wondering where the writer was able to retrieve this stat? I looked at various sites including milb.com, baseballamerica.ca, baseball-reference.com, fangraphs.com, statscorner.com and cant find this detail.

Or was it a matter of the writer reviewing the boxscores? Thanks!

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