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Got to this sooner than I thought I would.

The other contest we had was the one to predict the starting pitching breakdown for the 2011 Jays.

First, here's how the starts were actually allocated:

Romero    32
Morrow    30
Cecil    20
Reyes    20
Drabek    14
Villanueva    13
Alvarez    10
Litsch    8
Perez    4
McGowan    4
Mills    4
Stewart    3

For the results... Most people made the same kinds of mistakes. We all tended to overestimate Cecil, and most of us did the same with Drabek and Litsch. Marc Rzepczynski didn't get a single start but most of us thought he'd be a mainstay in the rotation. We didn't see Alvarez coming, and we blew off Villanueva and Reyes. Really it's surprising we did as well as we did.

One problem was that a couple of entries said, "...and X number of starts for other people I'm not going to bother to list!" I decided to treat them as "someone currently outside the organization", which in practice meant "nobody", because everyone who made a start for the '11 Jays was in the organization in spring training.

Here's how we did.

GabrielSyme 113
onecent 113
TamRa 112
CeeBee 111
Brian 110
Matthew E 109 (I think this is the best I've ever done in one of these things)
Kieran 109
Dan Gordon 108
Magpie 107
John Northey 107
Ron 107
Jonny German 106
Nolan 106
Mick Doherty 104
ayjackson 104
Subversive 101
Mike Green 96
bpoz 94 (but one of the only two who predicted any starts at all for Henderson Alvarez!)
AWeb 93
Timbuck2 92 (the other Alvarez guesser)

Gabriel's ballot was:

Romero 32
Morrow 30
Cecil 32
Reyes 4
Drabek 27
Litsch 18
Mills 2
Stewart 3
Rzepczynski 14

onecent's guesses were:

Romero 33
Morrow 32
Cecil 31
Reyes 6
Drabek 20
Litsch 24
Stewart 5
Rzepczynski 11

Congratulations to the both of them.

I said in the comments to the third-base results article that I didn't think third base to be fruitful ground for such a contest this year. Really it'd be just a prediction of whether Lawrie was going to get hurt and how much. I prefer the idea of a prediction thread for starts in left field.

But the starting pitching one is perennially good; there's always some dispute about how that's going to break down. Do you want a new thread for that or just put it in here?
Starting Rotation Predicted: 2011 Results | 21 comments | Create New Account
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John Northey - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 01:27 PM EST (#252532) #
Eh, putting it here works as well as anywhere...

Romero: 32
Morrow: 32
Alvarez: 30 (shut down or skipped)
---- end of easy guys ----
Cecil: 30 (yeah, too hopeful)
McGowan: 15 (injured here and there)
That's 139 for the 5 who start the season.

Drabek: 10 (covering for McGowan)
Villanueva: 3 (spot starts)
Drew Hutchison: 10 (gets full shot after Drabek)

Tempted to use McGuire or someone else for Hutschison as I figure those 10 are really 'whatever minor leaguer gets hot' and the 10 Drabek slots could be that too.

Also I'd guess Cecil or Alvarez will miss time (ineffective, injury, whatever) but can't guess who so I figured 'screw it' and dream of a Tampa Bay situation for the front 4. Either I'll look amazing next year or extremely dumb.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 01:38 PM EST (#252533) #
What is the deadline for this.
ST injuries can play a part in guessing. My #6 guy Litsch is now unavailable.
Matthew E - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 01:43 PM EST (#252534) #
Deadline is Opening Day.

In fact it makes a bit of sense to wait until the end of the spring to guess. No point in guessing McGowan and then McGowan's arm falls off on March 25th, or guessing Alvarez, and then Laffey gets his spot in the rotation.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 03:56 PM EST (#252537) #

Laffey gets his spot in the rotation

See, now you're just trying to scare everyone.

Matthew E - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 04:27 PM EST (#252538) #
If their willingness to give Jo-Jo Reyes 20 starts didn't scare you, I don't know what more I can do.
Kelekin - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 04:40 PM EST (#252539) #
I think you should wait maybe two weeks and then create a new thread for it.
bpoz - Wednesday, March 07 2012 @ 07:23 PM EST (#252541) #
New thread sounds good. Less clutter in case, this thread takes on a life of its own.

JoJo Reyes; I realize that I will never know the details there. On the Jeff Blair show last ST, Jerry Hawarth had praise for Reyes as a hard throwing LHP. That up side was too much to give up on, I guess. On the negative side one can say it was a mistake...hindsight. On the positive side it was a high risk high reward decision.
I remember Dwight Gooden as a very young pitcher back in the 80s. He may have been rushed to the majors except he was so good, I mean very good. So that cannot be called a mistake or a risk.
rpriske - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 08:42 AM EST (#252548) #

New (minor league) addition, according to MLBTR


  • The Blue Jays signed right-hander Fernando Hernandez, who appeared briefly with the 2008 Athletics. The reliever has a 3.55 ERA with 8.8 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9 in nine minor league seasons.
  • John Northey - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 01:40 PM EST (#252551) #
    One wonders how many guys the Jays will be having to release towards the end of spring. The number of live arms that are at a high level (AA/AAA) seems very high. Fernando Hernandez appears to be another live arm with control issues.

    12 pitchers are non-roster invitees, 19 healthy roster pitchers (plus Litsch & Farina) for a total of 31 + 2 pitchers. For the ML/AAA/AA (where almost all of those guys will go) you need about 36 pitchers. Mix in pitchers at the minor league complex who weren't invited and I gotta figure you are over 50 pitchers for 36 slots. You always need a few extras for injuries but geez.

    Now, Tampa has 23 on their 40 man plus 7 invities = 30. NYY have 14 non-roster plus 18 roster + 2 DL'ed = 32+2. Boston 19+2 on roster and 14 non-roster = 33+2.

    Hmm... guess the Jays are right in-line with the others in the AL East. Funny as it seemed crazy to have that many in spring but that is a common sight nowadays I guess.
    greenfrog - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 03:38 PM EST (#252553) #
    A side note: I'm more at peace with the Jays not signing Darvish in the off-season, but I did have a pang of longing when reading the reports on his first ST appearance. He sounds like the real deal.
    92-93 - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 06:04 PM EST (#252558) #
    What brought you to this said peace, greenfrog?

    The optimism is through the roof this spring with the Jays. Now imagine what it would be had they landed Darvish.
    Richard S.S. - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 07:09 PM EST (#252560) #
    John, it's possible that some of these pitchers will be pitching in Extended Spring Training with Draft Picks of 2012 and others in short-season Teams.
    electric carrot - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 07:24 PM EST (#252561) #
    I fully expect to never be over the Darvish non-signing.  I think this team had a really decent chance at the post-season with Darvish.  Without him -- still possible but basically a long shot.

    greenfrog - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 09:39 PM EST (#252563) #
    Darvish was basically the perfect fit for the Jays (age, talent, team need, strategic advantage (in light of the new CBA spending constraints), etc), but the team opted to go cheap. It is what it is. I guess I prefer to look forward rather than backward, although if Darvish wins 18 games with a 3.00 ERA, and Cecil goes 10-12, 4.60, and the Jays finish a few games out of a playoff spot, it's gonna take a lot of Beeston-spin to placate the fan base.
    John Northey - Thursday, March 08 2012 @ 10:39 PM EST (#252568) #
    Well, to be nice to the Jays there could've been other issues with Darvish as well. His super-star status and the hundreds of Japanese media making spring training (and the season) into a circus could've been a factor pushing the Jays to bid low. AA seems to value keeping the team full of guys who work well together - attitude and spirit seems to be a common theme in interviews despite trading for 'problem children' from other franchises.

    I still would've been much happier with Darvish though.
    greenfrog - Friday, March 09 2012 @ 09:51 AM EST (#252574) #
    Fair point John, the constant media circus would definitely have changed the club dynamic. Tough to argue with the results on the field, though (assuming they're there). My guess is the projected pricetag was the bigger factor.
    Hodgie - Friday, March 09 2012 @ 03:26 PM EST (#252581) #
    In honour of his start today against Houston, a little Henderson Alvarez love found here.
    greenfrog - Saturday, March 10 2012 @ 06:58 PM EST (#252598) #
    Nice piece on Morrow in the NYT:
    Mick Doherty - Sunday, March 11 2012 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#252610) #

    You know, I would have agreed with that until this morning when a respectted DFW baseball beat writer, I think it was Evan Grant, write about how anyone calling the Darvish following a circus is exactly wrong. Apparently the Japanese "horde" of media and photogs is immeasurably polite, professional and unobtrusive. Maybe we 'mericans could learna t hing or two ...

    PS So far, all the Ranger brass have called what they've seen of Darvish "the real deal" based mostly on throwing to live hitters in BP. We'll see -- I lived througha horde (no quotation marks) or New York media projecting multiple Cy Young Awards for Hideki Irabu not all that long ago ...

    Lylemcr - Tuesday, March 13 2012 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#252661) #

    I hear rumblings of  Blanton and Floyd.  I just cannot get excited.  I would rather take a look at one of these minor leaguers and see what they can do. (Like Beck or one of the young guns coming)  They cannot be that much worse, but can potentially be better.


    Jonny German - Tuesday, March 13 2012 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#252667) #
    a respectted DFW baseball beat writer, I think it was Evan Grant

    I'll assume "respectted" means something very different from "respected". Evan Grant is the buffoon who voted Michael Young as 2011 AL MVP.
    Starting Rotation Predicted: 2011 Results | 21 comments | Create New Account
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