The Blue Jays were a huge disappointment in 2013 but they didn't produce the biggest variance between expected and actual results. The Jays did come in at number two with a differential of 16.8. The Jays won 74 games while bauxites predicted 91. The biggest variance was the White Sox who only won 63 games, the forecasts were around 80 for an average variance of 17.4.
Other large variances included the Red Sox at 16.5, the Pirates at 14.7, the Angels at 13.4, the Indians and Athletics at 12.4. The Giants and Cardinals also had double digit variances. The team that the Bauxites did the best job at forecasting was the Detroit Tigers.
The AL East was the hardest division to forecast with a total verage variance of over 9 wins per team. The NL West was the easiest with a variance of 5.
There are many record predictions systems available from Vegas to Baseball Prospectus to ESPN and Fangraphs. But as these results show, there are likely to be at least half a dozen teams with double digit variances between the forecasts and the final results. Hopefully the Jays will end on the positive side.
Speaking of the Jays, ss I mentioned above the Jays were expected to win 90 games by most voters. A few had them in the high eighties. Only one bauxite had them anywhere around .500, Ron had the Jays at 80 wins. Good job Ron, unfortunately the rest of your votes didn't put you in a winning position.
I have listed below the total variance for all voters. The average variance would be the total divided by 30. That was the format Dave Rutt used but I hadn't set up my spreadsheet like that so you get the totals. In last years thread Mike Green mentioned that a lot of the votes were similar. The results reflect that with a lot of totals in the 210's and 200's. But joeblow had a clear and dominant victory. joeblow and hypobole tied for best AL scores. joeblow was sixth in the NL with Magpie winning the NL easily.
And now to the winners:
1. joeblow 195 2. gabrielthursday 203 3. hypobole 205 4. scottt 207 5. Magpie 209 5. sweat 209 5. eungar 209 8. Brian 211 9. A Web 213 10. Gerry 215 11. CeeBee 216 12. subversive 217 12. greenfrog 217 12. 92-93 217 15. mathesond 221 16. Alex Obal 222 16. Nick Holmes 222 18. rpriske 224 19. Dave Till 225 20. Jonny German 227 21. bpoz 228 22. Anders 229 23. Mudie 231 23. Eephus 231 25. electric carrot 232 26. Richard SS 233 27. Mike Green 234 28. perlhack 241 29. whiterasta80 242 29. Dave Rutt 242 29. ISLAND BOY 242 32. Lugnut Fan 247 33. finch 250 33. earlweaverfan 250 35. Intricated 253 36. Ron 255 37. Super Bluto 259 38. youngid 265 39. Pat 273 40. jjdynomite 276
Last year joeblow was 18th. gabrielthursday moved from fourth to second and hypobole repeated in third.
Congratulations to those who did well and everyone should apply some disciplined process' to do better in 2014, or you might be looking for a new GM.