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Better late than never, here are the results of the 2013 record prediction contest. 2012's winner rpriske failed to repeat. Last years third place finisher came in third again. The second place finisher was fourth last year while the winner was 18th showing its better to peak than to be consistent.

The Blue Jays were a huge disappointment in 2013 but they didn't produce the biggest variance between expected and actual results. The Jays did come in at number two with a differential of 16.8. The Jays won 74 games while bauxites predicted 91. The biggest variance was the White Sox who only won 63 games, the forecasts were around 80 for an average variance of 17.4.

Other large variances included the Red Sox at 16.5, the Pirates at 14.7, the Angels at 13.4, the Indians and Athletics at 12.4. The Giants and Cardinals also had double digit variances. The team that the Bauxites did the best job at forecasting was the Detroit Tigers.

The AL East was the hardest division to forecast with a total verage variance of over 9 wins per team. The NL West was the easiest with a variance of 5.

There are many record predictions systems available from Vegas to Baseball Prospectus to ESPN and Fangraphs. But as these results show, there are likely to be at least half a dozen teams with double digit variances between the forecasts and the final results. Hopefully the Jays will end on the positive side.

Speaking of the Jays, ss I mentioned above the Jays were expected to win 90 games by most voters. A few had them in the high eighties. Only one bauxite had them anywhere around .500, Ron had the Jays at 80 wins. Good job Ron, unfortunately the rest of your votes didn't put you in a winning position.

I have listed below the total variance for all voters. The average variance would be the total divided by 30. That was the format Dave Rutt used but I hadn't set up my spreadsheet like that so you get the totals. In last years thread Mike Green mentioned that a lot of the votes were similar. The results reflect that with a lot of totals in the 210's and 200's. But joeblow had a clear and dominant victory. joeblow and hypobole tied for best AL scores. joeblow was sixth in the NL with Magpie winning the NL easily.


And now to the winners:


1. joeblow 195

2. gabrielthursday 203

3. hypobole 205

4. scottt 207

5. Magpie 209
5. sweat 209
5. eungar 209

8. Brian 211

9. A Web 213

10. Gerry 215

11. CeeBee 216

12. subversive 217
12. greenfrog 217
12. 92-93 217

15. mathesond 221

16. Alex Obal 222
16. Nick Holmes 222

18. rpriske 224

19. Dave Till 225

20. Jonny German 227

21. bpoz 228

22. Anders 229

23. Mudie 231
23. Eephus 231

25. electric carrot 232

26. Richard SS 233

27. Mike Green 234

28. perlhack 241

29. whiterasta80  242
29. Dave Rutt 242
29. ISLAND BOY 242

32. Lugnut Fan 247

33. finch 250
33. earlweaverfan 250

35. Intricated 253

36. Ron 255

37. Super Bluto 259

38. youngid 265

39. Pat 273

40. jjdynomite 276


Last year joeblow was 18th. gabrielthursday moved from fourth to second and hypobole repeated in third.


Congratulations to those who did well and everyone should apply some disciplined process' to do better in 2014, or you might be looking for a new GM.

2013 Record Prediction Contest Results | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
rpriske - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 08:22 AM EDT (#283839) #
Uh oh, I had better bounce back or people will think my win last year was a fluke!

(SPOILER: It was.)
Mike Green - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#283842) #
Congratulations, joeblow.  I noticed that the key to success was probably getting the NL East essentially right.  Picking the Braves for 96 wins was bold, and (as it turned out) bang on.
joeblow - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#283868) #
Whoa I totally wrote this off knowing how badly I mangled the AL East. I'd say there's no chance of a repeat.
Dewey - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#283870) #
Thereís a found-poetry, of sorts, among the tied groups Gerry lists:

You want to beware of a Mudie/Eephus, Iím sure. And Magpie/sweat/eungar tells us something about Mags perspiring through his mis-spent youth.  subversive/greenfrog/92-93 seems pretty appropriate somehow.  And thereís a nicely conflicted earthiness to whiterasta/Dave Rutt/ Island Boy.

 Isnít there?
greenfrog - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#283871) #
Yes, and some nifty bookends:

joeblow
jjdynomite
CeeBee - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#283873) #
My favorite is a subversive greenfrog. Something you would find in a Central American jungle setting no doubt.
christaylor - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#283875) #
http://psychimages.droppages.com/BOSvTOR.jpg

Why one doesn't visit a fan site for baseball prediction (a box and whisker plot of 2013 bauxite predictions for Boston and Toronto).

Why does one visit? Because fun.
whiterasta80 - Friday, March 28 2014 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#283876) #
Happy to be in the middle all things considered.
gabrielthursday - Saturday, March 29 2014 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#283913) #
I really ought not to participate this year, let my ego coast on two good years...

electric carrot - Sunday, March 30 2014 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#283934) #
Congratulations Joeblow and other top finishers!  And thanks Gerry for tabulating the results.

I guess I can't complain that much about how crappy the Jays were last year.  I was at least as bad with my predictions.  Hoping for much better from both sides in 2014.



2013 Record Prediction Contest Results | 10 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.