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The Blue Jays continue their West Coast swing with a stop in Seattle where they will face an old friend.



Mariners lefty J.A. Happ, pitching against Cleveland May 31, will face the Jays for the first time since being sent to Seattle for outfielder Michael Saunders last off-season. Happ compiled a record of 19-20 with a 4.39 earned run average in three seasons with Toronto.

The Mariners did the Jays no favours by losing two out of three in the Bronx right after the All-Star break but they emerged with a split of a four-game set in Detroit. The M's find themselves just a half-game ahead of Oakland for last place in the American League West with a 44-52 record that leaves them 10-1/2 games behind the first-place Los Angeles Angels. The Jays are 49-48 to put them in second place after a series victory in Oakland but are 5-1/2 games behind the New York Yankees for first in the AL East.

Series Schedule & Probable Starters

Friday at 10:10 pm ET - Marco Estrada (7-5, 3.22) vs. Felix Hernandez (11-5, 2.77)
Saturday at 4:10 pm ET - Drew Hutchison (9-2, 5.19) vs. J.A. Happ (4-5, 4.12)
Sunday at 4:10 pm ET - Mark Buehrle (11-5, 3.23) vs. Taijuan Walker (7-7, 5.06)

The original pitching duel between Hutchison and King Felix in the series opener would have been a rematch of last year's curtain raiser in Seattle which was incredibly godawful and ended Strasburg Canada's career as a Blue Jay. This was the only good thing that happened in the game last year.
Blue Jays @ Mariners - July 24-26 | 269 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
BlueJayWay - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#305789) #
Hutchison has been scratched for today's start. Estrada pitches.
scottt - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#305790) #
Too bad. I was looking forward to the Estrada Happ match up.
Lylemcr - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#305791) #
I will be at the games this weekend! I am pumped!
Mike Green - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#305793) #
Smoak at first base and Valencia in left-field tonight.
JB21 - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#305800) #
I was also at the godawful game last August. The first 3 and a half innings were some of the more fun baseball I've seen with Joey hitting the bomb off of El Rey to go up 1-0 in the 4th. And then it went less fun from there.
finch - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 10:21 PM EDT (#305801) #
That was Reyes in his prime. Doesn't happen to often but when it does it's awesome to watch!
JB21 - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#305802) #
Agreed! He scored that run with his legs. I feel as if too many Jays' fans love to hate on Reyes, I'm pulling for him.
JB21 - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#305803) #
RE: Saunders in the other thread...

Saunders (knee) has started to increase his activity but is still "nowhere near a return," Shi Davidi of Sportsnet reports. Manager John Gibbons said Friday, "I wouldn't expect to see him before September."
Mike Green - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#305804) #
According to Gameday, there are two different strike zones depending on who is throwing the ball.  I wonder what Brooks Baseball will say at the end of the evening.
Eephus - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#305806) #
Nice smothering of the third base bag there by Donaldson, and a solid throw by Navarro. Miller had no chance.

#20 is some kinda ballplayer, folks.

Chuck - Friday, July 24 2015 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#305807) #
That's weird that it's legal to just block a base. Why not block second base when someone tries to steal? Or block first base on a routine ground ball? Maybe have a sumo wrestler play the position and just sit on the base.
Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#305812) #
Interesting article on Devon Travis stealing signs.
ComebyDeanChance - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#305813) #
I read that Delabar has been sent down for Sanchez. Gutsy call. The politically easy one would have been Tepera.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#305814) #
right choice between Delabar and tepera imo.

but it remains to be seen if its the right choice between Delabar and Sanchez.
Chuck - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#305815) #
Great bases loaded walk by Travis, not biting on the close pitches and not trying to be an RBI hero.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#305816) #
you know who i don't miss? even a little bit?
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#305817) #
Game started an hour ago and we're just entering the bottom of the 2nd.
Alex Obal - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#305818) #
It's a home game, Drew.
scottt - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#305819) #
I'm glad that's not a night game.
CeeBee - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#305820) #
I'm not sure I'd miss Hutch or Gibby either.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#305821) #
So the announcers mentioned something interesting... that Hutchison has been pitching up in the zone more often in road games. I don't have access to the tools to verify that (maybe someone here does and cares to investigate?).
If that is happening, it seems very curious, and eminently fixable.

Spifficus - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#305822) #
That sounds like a great theory, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Baseballsavant.com has a great search tool for this sort of thing. If anything, the heatmaps seem to be slightly higher for the fastballs at home, and more in the zone (and more in the middle) for sliders at home (down and away on the road).
lexomatic - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#305823) #
Too bad.
I looked at the rest of his career, and so far, last year was the anomaly in terms of home-road splits, when he was pretty even. Otherwise he's been brutally worse on the road. Maybe the difference is his stuff was better last year and he was pitching better overall, and we should expect significantly worse performance on the road .
He IS giving up a ton of hits (.350 babip), so it could balance out by the time the season ends.
It would've been great to have such an easy answer (though it would look really bad on the coaching staff).
A reminder that announcers don't always know what they're talking about.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#305824) #
just as jays nation collectively screams WHY NOT SMOAK??.......
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#305825) #
please be good, sanchez.
Spifficus - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#305826) #
Huh. Well, that was nifty and unexpected.

And, yeah, if it's Buck and Tabler, they're a broken baseball cliche soundboard.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#305827) #
3 full counts in a row to start.
Spifficus - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#305828) #
And quite a few pitches called balls that could have gone either way. His command seemed fine.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#305829) #
really? i disagree. good thing that screamer found a glove.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#305830) #
i get it, but i always hate playing the infield in.

great comeback though.
CeeBee - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#305831) #
Sanchez really was getting squeezed on the strike zone. For his first game in the majors in almost 2 months i thought he was fine.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#305832) #
i would being an outfielder in whenever the infield came in i think.
Spifficus - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#305833) #
That was a whole lot of 98s and 99s over those last 2 innings.
Mike Green - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#305834) #
The call to let Colabello hit in the 9th was, I thought, the right one.  He is a decent hitter even against RHP and Smoak would have had the pinch-hitter's penalty.  Plus with nobody out and the bases loaded, you really want to avoid the K.  That's probably closer to Colabello's profile. 
Terrific comeback again.  That the Jackson screamer found in a glove in a high leverage situation is the start of cosmic payback.  Hendriks is entitled to about 3 of those.

greenfrog - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#305835) #
Colabello has had some huge hits this year.

The Jays really need a win tomorrow. That would make for a pretty good road trip, all things considered.

The team has some big games coming up. After playing two against Philly, the Jays' schedule is as follows:

KC (4 games)
Minnesota (4 games)
@ NYY (3 games)
Oak (3 games)
NYY (3 games)

The next couple of days would be a good time to go get a starting pitcher (without overpaying). Kazmir was one pitcher I was interested in, but there are still lots of good arms out there (Carrasco, Hamels, Price, Samardzija, Cueto, Cashner, Leake, Fiers, among others). Should be an interesting week ahead.
Hodgie - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 09:14 PM EDT (#305836) #
Sure looked like Sanchez (amongst others) was getting squeezed. Gibson and Joyce have not had an exceptional weekend behind the plate.

In prospect news, the Dalton Pompey watch continues, with Pompey sporting a 5-6 line for the day with a double and a triple to his credit. Carrera's heroics today notwithstanding, Pompey can not get back to Toronto soon enough for my liking.

In the least surprising news department, Adam Lind was removed from today's game after striking out in the first inning. Apparently cameras showed him grimacing after the at-bat. No word if Jays trainers were in attendance.

uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#305838) #
a win tommorrow and we end up with a 9-10 record in this hellacious panam 16 of 19gns on the road stretch which is.....not awful.

and now we have a 16 of 19gms at home stretch to make some hay. if AA feels like adding pompey and an ace or two to the mix to start the homestand, that'd be nice.
China fan - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#305839) #
More of that alleged "empty .900 OPS" from Colabello today again.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#305843) #
Question: would you trade Hoffman or Norris for Price, straight up?

I think one of the challenges for the Jays is that their potential trading partners probably all want one or more of Norris, Hoffman, Pompey or Alford. But that seems like a steep price to pay for a rental. I imagine that if Anthopoulos were to give up one or more of those players, he would want a controllable arm (like Carrasco) in return.

Price might be an exception, though, given his talent level.

Maybe the Jays could expand the deal to include Cespedes and install him in left field.
92-93 - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#305844) #
I'd say yes before Dombrowski had a chance to finish his question.


greenfrog - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 11:30 PM EDT (#305845) #
The thing is, I want the Jays to have a real rotation next year. Remember that an arm or two is likely to go down with injury or underperform, just like this year. And that the Jays are unlikely to be players in free agency. Stroman/Osuna/Sanchez/Norris/Hoffman/Hutchison/Boyd are the future (some more than others). Stroman, Osuna and Norris are probably the best candidates to be strong #1-3 starters in 2015. Remove one of them, and the rotation could get thin in a hurry.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#305846) #
I'd trade Norris for Price straight up if Price was under control for next year. Since he's just a rental, and certainly not extending here, I'd say no way. Is two months of Price, where the Jays might very well not make the playoffs (or be a wildcard with the possibility of one and done) worth all those years of Norris?
greenfrog - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#305847) #
2016, I mean.

Rosenthal and Morosi reporting that the Royals almost acquired Cueto tonight. The deal reportedly fell through.
uglyone - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#305848) #
Hoffman and Norris do happen to have the lowest performance-to-hype ratio in our system this year.
christaylor - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#305849) #
"More of that alleged "empty .900 OPS" from Colabello today again."

Come again? I suppose you're quoting me in some sort of derisive way? I'm happy to snark with you... and for the record, I'll stand by that empty OPS comment.

begin snark:

Despite what the movie Moneyball may have taught you, an OPS of .900 can be mostly empty, especially when one takes into account that OPS measures less than half of a player's game. Colabello ought to not be taking playing time away from relevant players, i.e., Smoak. A cuttlefish says, "Colabello will not be on the Jays next year."

He won't be on the team because he fetched some amazing return, but because he is who he is and despite who he is, the manager of this team, who is the manager of this team partly because he was unlikely to hurt the GM's feelings and leave for a better baseball city, decides to play him.

end snark.
JB21 - Saturday, July 25 2015 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#305850) #
OPS, or hitting, doesn't make up half of a player's game, or worth. It makes much more than half.
christaylor - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 12:58 AM EDT (#305851) #
OPS does not equal hitting... OPS as a measure of production itself is wrong according to James who advocated OBP * SLG.

It is measure more flawed than most.
christaylor - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:20 AM EDT (#305852) #
Just to be clearer - yes, hitting is a majority of a position player's value (depends on the position) but if you're using a broken scale (one called broken by its inventor) why bother?

I don't feel uncomfortable with the idea that giving Colabello playing time is bad long term for the Blue Jays -- what is the argument that it is good long term? If Pompey plays left, Smoak 1B, and Colabello hits for an independent league team the Jays are better off now and in the future.
hypobole - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#305853) #
wRC+ = hitting

Donaldson 144, Bautista 143, Colabello 141.
JB21 - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:46 AM EDT (#305856) #
OPS is certainly not perfect, or ideal, but it does have more of a direct collation to runs/game than a lot of hitting stats. Any ways, I was just commenting on the half comment, in regards to hitting. I agree, he should not be out there in LF, but he wasn't today.

He has had some big hits, and regardless of what happens in the future he has already put up great offensive numbers this season. He is obviously not in the long term plans, but the Jays are trying to make the playoffs THIS season, and he has been 41% better than the average MLB hitter this year.

There's room for him, Smoak, & Pompey on this team.
JB21 - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#305857) #
Just for fun...

Martin 126, Pillar 92, Reyes 94, Travis 128, Edwin 116, Smoak 119
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:35 AM EDT (#305858) #
There's no such thing as an empty OPS anyway. People refer to "empty batting averages" to mean a guy with little extra in the way of OBP or SLG, but I have no idea what an empty OPS is supposed to mean. (a) It's true it doesn't measure defence, so if that's the point, then okay. No one's saying he's good in the field. And anyway, it's a strange formulation to reference his defence by dismissing his OPS -- when people talk of empty batting averages, they're not commenting on defence. (b) If the point is it's not the best measurement, then okay -- Hypobole dealt with that by showing his wRC+, which is excellent.

On the issue of whether he'll be here next year, or (same thing) his sustainability, one fascinating thing I read sometime last year -- I think it was from Dan Szymborski -- is that, while high BABIPs regress to the mean, they usually don't do so until the next season. Szymborski couldn't explain why. He, too, was fascinated by it, and could only speculate that it could be a "hotness" issue. In Colabello's case, because his BABIP was so extreme, it was bound to come down even this year, but if Szymborski's right, we might (should?) expect it to stay high for the remainder of this year. Next year? Who knows, and right now, who really cares?
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#305859) #
Same with low BABIPs, by the way. It's a poor omen for the rest of the current year.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#305860) #
Gerrit Cole had a mediocre year in AAA before breaking out in the majors. Minor-league performance is desirable, but it's not the be-all, end-all. I'm sure teams would be happy to take a flyer on Norris or Hoffman in exchange for the 10-12 starts remaining on a SP's contract. Beats a sandwich round pick.

Nestor Molina had a terrific year in the minors before the Jays flipped him for Sergio Santos.
TangledUpInBlue - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:38 AM EDT (#305861) #
Here's what Szymborzki said, in a piece on "10 Lessons I Have Learned From Creating a Projection System":

Lesson #8: Results are “Stickier” In-Season than Season-to-Season

When developing in-season projections, it quickly was evident that the model that worked for season-to-season projections needed quite a bit of adjustment to work for in-season projections. Simply put, there was significantly less regression toward the mean for in-season stats than you would expect from the sample size, relative to season-to-season stats.

One notable example was BABIP, in that the BABIP overperformance, in the context of in-season projections, tended to stick more than one would expect from the heavier regression from season-to-season. That .400 first-half BABIP may be doomed next year, but players retain a surprisingly large amount of that bounce within the same season.

http://www.hardballtimes.com/10-lessons-i-have-learned-about-creating-a-projection-system/
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#305862) #
Very interesting about the BABIPs in season.
christaylor - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#305863) #
Thanks for the BABIP link - good read.

The context of the "empty OPS" rhetoric was a response to a comparison of a sample of Smoak v. Colabello from July 2nd to when the comment it was made. The difference in OPS was two hundred points, with a difference of one extra base hit. That difference is empty.

I think it is short sighted to focus on just this season and run Colabello out as often asas he has been. Smoak out at 1B won't hurt the team and may help this team (with its arms at SS and 3B) more than defensive metrics suggest.
rafael - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#305864) #
If Norris Hoffman Pompey or Castro get traded I think it will really come back to bite us. These are just normal growing pains of guys that are really close to contributing.
I don't understand the glass half empty view of these guys.
Instead of trading them, just bring them up over next few weeks and give each another chance.
If it even half works then we'll make playoffs if not then we'll be in better shape next year.
Its the way to do things for teams like the Jays who didn't have money in offseason for decent free agents relievers which were obviously needed. Tip your hat to the Yankees budget and play the patience and hope game.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#305865) #
which decent relievers did you want us to sign again?
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#305866) #
reminder...

bullpens:

NYY: 303.0ip, 3.39era, 3.43fip, 3.38xfip, 2.99siera
TOR: 292.1ip, 3.42era, 3.49fip, 3.43xfip, 3.03siera
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#305867) #
One notable example was BABIP, in that the BABIP overperformance, in the context of in-season projections, tended to stick more than one would expect from the heavier regression from season-to-season. That .400 first-half BABIP may be doomed next year, but players retain a surprisingly large amount of that bounce within the same season.

Surprise is relative.  ZIPS projects a .253/.307/.429 line for Colabello for the rest of the season with a .320 BABIP.  There still is obviously considerable regression projected.  The system projects "positive" defensive regression for him as well,  with the result that he is projected to be a 0.1 WAR player the rest of the way.  Personally, I would take the over on the offensive line and the under on the defensive line (I think that he has made some offensive improvements and that the .320 BABIP is somewhat low, and that he is really as bad as his defensive numbers).  The overall projection reflected in the WAR is probably pretty close.

For what it's worth, ZIPS projects a .239/.317/.421 line for Smoak the rest of the season with better defence than Colabello.  A platoon makes plenty of sense.
dalimon5 - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#305868) #
Keep in mind Andrew Miller was out of the NYY bullpen for a awhile. He makes it much better.
jerjapan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#305869) #
Interesting comments from Pillar (via Dave Laurila at Fangraphs) on his unexpectedly awesome defense this year.  He gives a lot of credit to Tim Leiper.  we haven't had much discussion of the coaches impact on defense lately,  since Butterfield left for Boston really, but nice to hear about the behind the scenes stuff.


"I play the outfield similar to how I played football. It’s about taking good routes and going to get the ball, whether that means diving, running into a wall, or whatever it might take"..... A receiver, running back and safety as a California prep, Pillar is quick to credit Tim Leiper, who positions the Toronto outfield.

“We have more defensive schemes than any person outside of our clubhouse would ever imagine,” said Pillar. “Nothing is ever going to be an exact science, but Tim does a helluva job of putting us in the right place. One step in the right direction can make all the difference.”

Pillar’s first step is exemplary, as are his reads. According to Leiper, those attributes are every bit as important as colored dots on a spray chart.

“We come up with general starting points based on statistics, but at the same time, hitters change from pitch to pitch,” explained Leiper. “We trust him to move based on how he reads swings. He’s got great instincts and his jumps are second to none. He’s also fearless”

jerjapan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#305870) #
On another note, I really don't want to see another Felix Doubront start.  Assuming AA doesn't make a move by Tuesday, who should start?  Stick with Felix? 

Norris' last three starts have been mixed at best, but we just brought Sanchez up before he started to dominate.  Wolf pitched (very well) - but yesterday.  Boyd has shown the ability to bounce back quickly after a demotion - give him another go on three days rest?  he was a monster in his last start.   Jeff Hoffman?  I'm getting desperate here.  Scott Copeland looks like a great AAAA guy, but all I recall of his times in the bigs is hard hit balls and no Ks.

we can't keep burning starts like this - an upgrade to the fifth spot in the rotation could make or break the season.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#305871) #
they could just skip him.
Chuck - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#305872) #
bullpens:

NYY: 303.0ip, 3.39era, 3.43fip, 3.38xfip, 2.99siera
TOR: 292.1ip, 3.42era, 3.49fip, 3.43xfip, 3.03siera

There might be an argument that the "shape" of the Yankee bullpen is preferable. The Jays bullpen seems "flat", with little separation between the long man (Hendriks) and the closer (Osuna). The Yankees bullpen contains the ridiculous Miller/Betances combo which serves them exceedingly well in high leverage situations.

scottt - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#305873) #
Yeah, Monday's an off day.

uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#305874) #
so you think the yankees woulda let us outbid them for miller?

and remember, yanks contracts to "proven relievers" like rogers, capuano, and carpenter have killed the bottom of their pen, with them forced to keep giving them chances before waiving them.
Hodgie - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#305875) #
"Hoffman and Norris do happen to have the lowest performance-to-hype ratio in our system this year."

Is that a Fangraphs or Baseball-reference metric?

Chuck - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#305876) #
so you think the yankees woulda let us outbid them for miller?

Is this question aimed at me?

If so, I think the answer to your question is no. But that's not what I was arguing. You presented two bullpens performing almost exactly the same, in the aggregate. I am suggesting that it might be preferable that such a bullpen be composed of really good and really bad relievers rather than relievers who are all the same. The really good ones can be exceptionally well leveraged. And the really bad ones are likely relegated to pitching in losses anyway. Further, really bad ones can be replaced, though with no guarantee that their replacements are much better.

I was just arguing about a preferred bullpen "shape" rather than discussing the costs of the personnel specifically making up the two bullpens in question.

Hodgie - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#305877) #
It would appear Cueto is now off the market as a deal between KC and Cin is being confirmed. Will be interesting to see the package heading to Cin.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#305878) #
I agree with Chuck.  The only proviso is that I don't think that the Blue Jay bullpen is completely flat.  I think that Osuna and Hendriks are the best relievers in the pen, although obviously not as good as Betances/Miller.  If Osuna and Hendriks were leveraged well, the pen would perform decently.  I realize that my opinion is just that- you could infer from Hendriks' performance in high-leverage situations that he just doesn't have the stones for it.  I don't see it that way,  but rather that it is just bad luck.  Fortunately, I think that Sanchez will be every bit as good as Hendriks (or better)  the rest of the way and that it won't matter from now on. 

It makes it easier to make these judgments when you have pitchers with a history, like Betances and Miller, who are performing well. 

greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#305879) #
It sounds as if the Royals are getting Cueto. The dominoes are falling (perhaps a better metaphor would be musical chairs). Both Kazmir and Cueto would have been good additions for the Jays - quality with some (probably manageable) injury risk.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#305880) #
As more pitchers go by the wayside, the Jays run the risk not only of not getting one of the arms they want, but also of losing leverage in trade negotiations.
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#305881) #
Yay glad Cueto is off the table. He would be the most expensive rental (unless Price is seriously being offered) and less chances of paying for a rental is good. I think we're going to end up for a lesser trade where we give up one top guy to a team like Chicago or San Diego. But please AA choose more wisely than you did with Syndegard.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#305882) #
chuck, i agree with you on the ideal shape of the bullpen.

but let's take it a step further and see how we build that bullpen.

for example, i was definitely in favor of dreaming on signing a robertson or miller in the offseason - even with the knowledge that big money rp can blow up real bad.

but most of the jays fan clamor in the offseason was not necessarily for the elite closer types, but just to get proven relievers at reasonable prices....and this was something that i am extremely happy the jays didn't do.

and a big reason why is something you said about the bad relievers - that you can just dump them when they're bad. the problem is that it's not that easy - when they have guaranteed contracts and no options you have to give them all sorts of chances no matter what - we saw this with the corderos and rauches and the yanks saw it this year with rogers capuano and carpenter. th3 ability to easily move out bad relievers is a huge reason why you shouldn't spend monyley on middle relievers imo.

and we have to remind ourselves that the problems our pen has had this year wouldn't have been addressed by signing a couple proven middle relievers. in fact, it may have made iur bullpen worse as guys like osuna, hendriks, schultz may never have received the opportunity they have bad this year if there were more expensive guys giving us not awful relief innings.

I agree 100% on your SHAPE argument - including the importance of flexibility and movement at the bottom of the pen - and that's why imo the only rp worth spending money on are the real top end late inning guys.....though even they are a big gamble.

But we also have to note that in retrospect, the only real issue with the pen this year is that the two most reliable guys cecil and loup blew up....and when you comb through their numbers that blow up looks very much like a fluke, as their underlying numbers are as good or better than they've ever been.

And for the record fWAR does a decent job capturing your Shape argument statistically - despite the similarity in stats the Yanks' bullpen is tied for first with 4.0war, while the jays are just at an above average 2.2war (12th mlb 6th al).

but lastly i have to note that the jays' pen being "flat" probably glosses over their very impressive depth - i don't think there's another bullpen in baseball that could have deservedly just sent Delabar to the minors, e.g.
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#305883) #
Green frog I understand you on the first. Having pitchers traded does leave you with less options. But not sure I agree with the second point. Wouldn't any disadvantage in leveraging your prospects between multiple selling teams be balanced by that more trades means less buyers, thus deflating the cost of the pitchers and increasing the chance of a reasonable deal? I think Cameron is right in that's its shifted to more of a buyers market.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#305884) #
"As more pitchers go by the wayside, the Jays run the risk not only of not getting one of the arms they want, but also of losing leverage in trade negotiations."

supply and demand are both effected pretty evenly i think.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#305885) #
Dave Cameron's trade deadline predictions:

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/predicting-the-deadline-acquisitions/

He sees the Jays acquiring Samardzija, Bruce and Chapman. Those acquisitions make good sense on paper, but I doubt the Jays will want to pay Bruce's and Chapman's salaries in 2016. And acquiring those players will cost a lot in prospects without giving the Jays a controllable starting pitcher for 2016 and beyond.

I see the Jays going with Pompey in the OF before too long and looking for a less expensive bullpen upgrade than Chapman. I imagine Samardzija is high on the Jays' list of trade targets, though.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#305886) #
I bet you we end up with Shark.

and i wouldn't mind, depending on price.

actually getting 2 horses - like say shark and leake - might be better than getting one high upside top guy.

with our offense having 4 good but not great dependable innings eaters (if dickey is the more recent dickey) might be the best approach.

and hutch would make for a helluva RP i think.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#305887) #
and with osuna's awesomeness and moving sanchez to the pen, i don't think they're adding any rp.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#305888) #
I don't think the Jays will lose leverage if they want any of a number of arms, as there is a potentially large number of SPs available, but if they want one of the top arms, they may lose leverage as the pool of those arms shrinks. It's true that this depends on how supply and demand evolves for the various tiers of available pitchers.

Probably it's more accurate to say that sometimes it pays to strike early, and sometimes it pays to wait out the market.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#305889) #
Yay glad Cueto is off the table. He would be the most expensive rental (unless Price is seriously being offered) and less chances of paying for a rental is good.

I can't see Toronto being willing to part with much of anything for a rental for 2 months. This isn't a team like the Royals or the '92 Blue Jays looking for a player to put them over the top in the playoffs. This is a team that is for all intents and purposes out of the Division race and a long shot to make the single game Wild Card slot.

I'm at the sell point now. I'd like to see Mark Buehrle, who in my view has been a great citizen here, moved to a contender for at least one good prospect. And I'd like to see Dickey moved if he won't be renewed. As I stated earlier, I think it may be hard for the Jays to tie a QO albatross around Mark Buehrle in the offseason.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#305890) #
so you think the yankees woulda let us outbid them for miller?

They wouldn't have had to.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#305891) #
Disagree, for these reasons:

- you're not going to get much for Buehrle (less than the A's got for Kazmir)
- trading Buehrle would send a terrible message to Bautista, Donaldson, Martin and the rest of the team, who have been busting their asses to keep the team in contention (and whom Alex should want to keep happy for at least another year)
- the team still has a decent (maybe 30% or more) shot at making the playoffs
- the team has offense, which is currently scarce, and lacks pitching, which is available in semi-abundance. So go get an arm or two and give it your best shot

uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#305892) #
"This is a team that is for all intents and purposes out of the Division race and a long shot to make the single game Wild Card slot. "

so you're saying the playoff positions are set now in mid july?
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:17 PM EDT (#305893) #
Davidi says the asking price for Cueto is believed to be Stroman-plus.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#305894) #
so you're saying the playoff positions are set now in mid july?

ugly that doesn't necessarily follow what I wrote, as you are probably aware. For the Division race, yes, I think it is very unlikely that the Yankees do not win the Division. They are 7 games ahead of Toronto in the all important loss column. As mentioned in another thread, they have a very light second half schedule having had a tougher first half one. Something like playing 56 of 74 games against teams with a sub .500 record. To this point they have played .563 overall, and even assuming that they don't improve on that winning % in the second half, they would then win 91 games. I'd bet on them winning more than that given their schedule. For the Jays to win even 91 games now, they'd need to play .651 baseball against a harder schedule than the Yankees have. To this point, they've played .505 baseball. Highly unlikely.

As for the Wild Card, they are currently 4 games out of the second spot (the Astros and Twins hold those spots) in the loss, which isn't bad but - so are the Tigers (who some assume are selling). So are the Orioles (about who there has been talk of selling). So are the Rangers. The Rays have only lost one more. In fact, so have the not-very-good White Sox. So the Jays are one of a lot of teams behind the two leading teams, fighting for a one-game playoff. I'm not saying the Wild Card is set, and the Twins or Astros, or both, could fall back, but I don't like Toronto's chances. And I'd rather make sure we get something forMark Buehrle and for Dickey than roll the dice hoping for snake eyes, and in desperation weaken the farm system to do so.

85bluejay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#305895) #
I'm in the stand pat/minor upgrade camp, and I'm not against moving pieces from the active roster - The jays FO has had a good year, so there's presently a strong confidence factor for me - this week will be crazy will speculation and I'm guessing lots a disappointment on the trade front, so I just want to remind that last year, Oakland and Detroit were seen as the big winners at the deadline, yet things didn't work out - even with 4 "Aces", Detroit couldn't get to the WS - and this last winter, the Padres, Red Sox and White Sox were declared the winners - how's that working out - often, it's the smaller moves that bring more rewards.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#305896) #
I would argue that the Jays have a better chance of making the playoffs than any other current non-playoff team. Not only are there no teams between them and 2 different playoff spots, but their elite run and baserun differential means they are likelier to rise in the standings than most of their immediate competition.

and i'd add that i don't think there's another team with as singular an area for improvement as the jays and their SP. Jays could quite easily add a clear handful of wins at the deadline by adding a couple good SP to replace replacement level guys there now. imo jays have a clearer path to upgrading their team this week than any other team.

and in fact, fangraphs standings projections have the jays making the playoffs over the twins, and that's without even adding a few wins with deadline trades.

So i do think saying the jays don't have a good chance here is tantamount to saying the current playoff standings are set....in mid july.
rafael - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#305897) #
"NYY: 303.0ip, 3.39era, 3.43fip, 3.38xfip, 2.99siera
TOR: 292.1ip, 3.42era, 3.49fip, 3.43xfip, 3.03siera"

I know I'm not alone in thinking the Jays pen has run up these stats during blowouts and generally sucked when chips have been on line. Blown saves and one run ball games begin to tell a different tale

Budget has obviously been a big issue lately. Without naming specific players in hindsight, I am sure it played a large part in our weak bull pen this year that we spent nothing on it in off season after it being identified by GM as biggest weakness last year...
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#305898) #
Yeah no way you give up Stroman for a rental. For Hamels sure but not any rental, not even Price. I think there is an issue that since AA has so many top pitching prospects that some teams don't want to trade with the. Unless they get at least one of Stroman/Norris/Hoffman. Basically they want a top young pitcher for him, and we're punished because we have better top young pitching prospects than most teams.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#305899) #
i wouldn't even think of trading stroman for hamels.

a young controllable ace a la gray or sale maybe.
jerjapan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#305900) #
Davidi says the asking price for Cueto is believed to be Stroman-plus.

So what?  chances of any team anywhere paying that price are zero. 
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 02:56 PM EDT (#305901) #
Reds are known to be a bad organization from the managerial standpoint. Seen several writers talk about how they incorrectly value players. Basically wouldn't be surprised if they honestly thought Cueto was worth that much. If teams are going to play hardball like that with the Jays he just has to walk away.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#305902) #
I think the Reds did well in the Cueto deal - Lamb/Finnegan/Reed - I also understand the Royals side, almost sure to be the playoffs, strong farm system and their window is now - Boras is taking Moustakas & Hosmer to FA in 2 yrs.
jerjapan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#305903) #
but lastly i have to note that the jays' pen being "flat" probably glosses over their very impressive depth - i don't think there's another bullpen in baseball that could have deservedly just sent Delabar to the minors, e.g.

I agree with most of what you say about the pen and it's surprising quality Uglyone, and agree that an elite arm is the only potential need - but I don't see Delebar as worth that much more than, say, Chad Jenkins.  He has options and some specific talents and is entirely the perfect sort of 7th/8th/9th arm out of a deep pen like the one AA has assembled.

I think the Royals DFA of Jason Frasor is more impressive.  If they do get Cueto, and in the spirit of July predictions for October, I'd say it's looking like a midwest WS.  Now if only they'd go and get Zobrist to replace Omar Infate's ghost at 2b.   
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#305904) #
I think trading Dickey and/or Buehrle would send the message that management is giving up on this season when we're still in contention. If AA can acquire a number 1 or 2 pitcher under control for a few years, that would be great, but I don't think he's going to gut the farm system to do it. A mid-range starter that can pitch 6 or 7 innings a game with even an era of 4 would help.
On a side note, how many of us had the Yankees buried in the basement before the season started ? Mediocre starters, lost their leader to retirement, old players at several positions -- yeah, we don't have to worry about them this year ! Damn Yankees-- they're like vampires, you can't bury them in the basement, you got drive a stake through their miserable hearts !
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#305905) #
Lamb is a 25 year old, so I have a hard time finding a pitcher in the Jays system who is in a similar situation. Maybe Boyd? Finiggan seems like Sanchez, and not sure on the third. So would people have been okay with let's say Sanchez or Hoffman + Boyd + one other for Cueto?
Spifficus - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#305906) #
There's upside in that Cueto package, but also a lot of question marks and volatility. Finnegan hasn't shown that he could be a starter yet, Reed is more an upside play, and it took Lamb quite a while to regain form after TJS, if his stuff is even all the way back.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#305907) #
Sanchez + Boyd + a labourt or borucki seems like a fair comp.

i'd have swung that deal.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#305908) #
I guess Cueto is going to make his Royals Debut against the Jays.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#305909) #
jer - not only was 37yr old frasor's velo down to marginal, but his underlying numbers were simply awful.

J.Frasor (37): 92.0mph, 26.1ip, 17.2k%, 14.7bb%, 35era-, 104fip-, 123xfip-, 4.82siera
S.Delabar (31): 93.5mph, 27.0ip, 26.1k%, 10.1bb%, 84era-, 97fip-, 97xfip-, 3.30siera

greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#305910) #
The Kazmir and Cueto deals give us a fairly good idea of the going rate for a rental SP. Presumably Samardzija will cost about the same, with Price costing a bit more and some others (Iwakuma, Haren, Latos) costing less.
electric carrot - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#305911) #
I wonder if it's time to start cheering for the Yanks against Minnesota.  We seem less and less likely to be the American East Champs as the Yanks seem to be hitting their stride.  Minn is a likely challenger for the wildcard.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#305912) #
tbh i just don't think the twinkies are very good. i think they'll keep on falling no matter who they play.
Hodgie - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#305913) #
One thing to consider when contemplating the Jays post-season odds, the team has 14 games left against the two teams it is currently chasing in the standings (10 v Yankees, 4 vs Minnesota).
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#305914) #
The Twins are indeed terrible. They're the anti-Jays in that they're much worse than their record.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#305915) #
They have 13 games left against NY Hodgie.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#305916) #
I guess the good news is that no clearcut top 50 prospect has been traded for either of this top end rentals.
Paul D - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#305917) #
Is that the dumbest triple play in history?
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#305918) #
yikes.

we better not lose by 1 after that.
Alex Obal - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#305919) #
Once it was clear Pillar would be able to reach third, Carrera should've charged home and hoped for a Rule 7.13 violation. Live and learn.
James W - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#305920) #
Another very good option would have been for Carrera to not vacate his base once Pillar was tagged out. (Yeah, I know: Thanks Caption Obvious!)
Magpie - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#305921) #
Is that the dumbest triple play in history?

Brooklyn famously once placed three men on third base, but the lead runner (a pitcher, yet!) held the bag so it was only a double play.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#305922) #
man we are sloppy today.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#305923) #
Great focus by Carrera on that catch.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#305924) #
Pompey is on fire, so Carrera competes in the best way he can.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#305925) #
...and then again. Whew. 

Pompey has been hitting everything.  Over the last 10 games, he's got a 9/2 W/K to go with all those hits.

uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#305926) #
helluva last stand for zeke. may have saved his job.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#305927) #
heh. it just doesn't matter.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#305928) #
and as soon as he gives up the dinger on an awful hanger he gets right back to being filthy.

what the hell is wrong with these guys?
rafael - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#305929) #
Must be that the third base coach is making everyone nervous. even the pitchers.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:25 PM EDT (#305930) #
Is Travis available?  If he is, I don't know why you wouldn't pinch-run him.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#305931) #
now that was some nasty awesome from Sanchez. Might be the best inning i've ever seen him throw. Most swinging strikes at least.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#305932) #
I guess that is why you don't pinch-run Travis...
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#305933) #
Why do the Jays have to make life so hard for themselves?
China fan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#305934) #
"....Why do the Jays have to make life so hard for themselves?....."

You're referring to the decision to use Tepera in the 9th inning?  Well, considering that the bullpen threw 5 innings yesterday, and the starting pitcher lasted only 5.2 innings today, and we're now in extra innings, Gibbons has to conserve his relievers to some extent.  He clearly likes Tepera and preferred him over Delabar.  And as mentioned, the Jays bullpen is somewhat "flat" in terms of leverage roles.  So it perhaps wasn't surprising that Tepera got the call in the 9th.  Still, it was a gutsy decision by Gibbons, and so far it seems to have worked.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#305935) #
Actually, no, that's not what I was referring to.
uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#305936) #
lol
China fan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#305937) #
Enlighten us as to the source of your puzzlement then.

(I assumed it was the same as the chatter on Twitter, where many people were debating the Tepera decision.)

uglyone - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#305938) #
that's a devestating loss.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#305939) #
I dunno. It's been only Wednesday since the last devestating loss, and I'm sure the next one is right around the corner.
John Northey - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#305940) #
Loup was such a reliable guy before 2015...sigh.  That's why bullpens are such a crapshoot.  Filling it with guys who throw 98 mph does help but Loup drives me nuts this year.
Four Seamer - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#305941) #
Loup is the worst pitcher in that bullpen. Why he wasn't being saved for the 21st inning is beyond me.
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#305942) #
At 50-50 it makes no sense to buy anything than a 3/4 rental unless they can get someone with more than one year of control.
King Ryan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#305943) #
This team is ... frustrating? Amusing?

I basically only have time to watch on Sundays now...the last game I watched they scored 8 runs in an inning but made a series of stupid plays to lose and this Schultz guy gave up a bomb to the 9th hitter. Today they manage to run into the ugliest triple play in history while Schultz again gives up a crippling homer. He gave up 2 homers the previous game I watched before that. This guy somehow has a sub-2 ERA but gives up gets lit up every Sunday! Ha.

And man ... Loup was the best pitcher available in the 10th?
Magpie - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#305944) #
After 100 games:

2015 50-50
2014 51-49
2013 45-55
2012 51-49
2011 50-50
2010 51-49
2009 49-51
2008 49-51
2007 50-50

Gotta admire the consistency.
King Ryan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#305945) #
That is incredible.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#305946) #
Big homestand coming up, including a 4 game set against a team they're chasing for a wild card.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#305947) #
Yep, not good enough to contend, not bad enough to get premium draft picks - the mediocrity treadmill.

Does Loup not deserve some time in Buffalo?

50-50 - I don't know how fans can justify lobbying for an all-in trade. We will need those young, talented and cheap pitching in the coming years.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#305948) #
Just posted that stat on twitter. That's nuts.
Magpie - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#305949) #
We will need those young, talented and cheap pitching in the coming years.

To do what?

The assumption is that they'll do something exciting with them. I dunno. Are there three young pitchers who will be able to match what Halladay, Carpenter, and Escobar did with their careers? Because even if there are...
Kasi - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#305950) #
We've got a core of a good young team with Donaldson and Martin leading a vet portion of the lineup that includes Travis, Pillar and hopefully soon Pompey. We're stuck with Reyes for now as well. Obviously if we lose both EE and Bautista that sets is back, but both would net us comp picks. Between Stroman, Hutchison, Sanchez, Osuna and some mix of the guys coming up from the minors the pitching is pretty decent too. Obviously need a SS eventually to replace Reyes and hopefully some outfield or first base power bat. Anyway I think that is a pretty solid young team. It might lose a lot or it might just do as good as this team currently does.

Regardless I think Gibbons needs to be fired. He is clearly not a winner and his record shows this. I'd like to keep AA since I think he has learned from his mistakes but I'm not opposed to getting some other bright mind in that role. But a partial selling of prospects so you can be a 85 win team instead of an 83 win team makes no sense. Either go all in and expect that you're going to be a 100 lost team in 2017 or keep building from within and stop selling off prospects for this run of the team.
ComebyDeanChance - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#305951) #
Are there three young pitchers who will be able to match what Halladay, Carpenter, and Escobar did with their careers?

Their careers perhaps not, but in Carpenter's case easily their Blue Jay career, certainly. And to a lesser extent that's the case with Excobar as well.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#305952) #
The only thing I would have done differently today is to leave Buehrle in to face Zunino (at least) in the 6th inning.  He did not look tired to me, and would have had a 3 up 3 down inning but for the Donaldson error. 

The homer to Cruz in the 7th didn't bug me- it was the walk to Seager that preceded it.  I have absolutely no patience with relievers who walk batters to bring up the tying run.  On another note, is it just me or was Donaldson uppercutting on this road trip more than he was earlier in the season?  I wonder if it's a lingering effect from the home run derby. 



hypobole - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#305953) #
Actually Gibbons fits the never-be-great/never-be-terrible profile of the Jays perfectly.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#305954) #
it was the walk to Seager that preceded it

This is what I was referring to when I rhetorically asked why the Jays so often make it hard on themselves. This was a winnable game. The Jays unnecessarily put themselves in a position to lose, and ultimately did just that.

If the bullpen is going to walk the tying run to the plate (or if Reyes is going to let a routine grounder go through his legs, etc.), the team doesn't really have cause to whinge if the GM declines to make significant upgrades at the deadline; they actually don't deserve to have the organization burn its prospects for a Cueto or a Samardzija for an extra win or two.
grjas - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#305956) #
After 100 games:..

God that's funny. I was going to post the same thing. This year it's one run games , last year and the year before it was injuries, before that was Romero,, before that it was the Canadian dollar etc. etc.


Different singers. Same tune.
christaylor - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#305957) #
In that stretch the Jays have had elite run prevention and production. One can quibble but it has happen twice three times? 2015 is one of those years. Go all in damn the future - trade Stroman in Papelbon/Hamels deal.

At least like the other years there are no beasts to walk through in either the division or playoffs.
China fan - Sunday, July 26 2015 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#305958) #
".....I have absolutely no patience with relievers who walk batters to bring up the tying run...."

I agree.   Even worse, Schultz began the Seager AB by throwing 3 consecutive pitches outside the strike zone.  He had a 2-run lead, one out in the 7th inning and the bases empty; he had no excuse for nibbling the corners.  In that situation, you throw strikes and let the defence take care of it.  Instead he fell behind 3-0 to Seager, tried to battle back, could not do it, and walked the guy.  As a result it was a two-run home run by Cruz.
StephenT - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#305959) #
I don't believe the commentary that Ezequiel Carrera was stupid and intentionally stepped off third-base, just before madly trying to get back on the base before the tag.

I think Carrera fell off the base, in part because the catcher was holding his glove in his chest, and then the trigger seemed to be something the third-base coach Luis Rivera did, who leaned in with arms waving (for no apparent good reason) and either made contact with Carrera, or Carrera was trying to avoid contact with the coach.  That was when Carrera fell off the base.  He looked very upset that this had happened.  He at no point looked like he intentionally left the base.

So far I haven't seen a post-game article with Carrera's or Rivera's side of the story.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:56 AM EDT (#305960) #
I know it's just another frustrating loss, but nobody had mentioned how Ryan Goins stunk it up at the plate in this game, failing to get a bunt down twice in one at bat and hitting into a triple play in another with two on, nobody out. I wondered before the game why Travis was being sat with a day off today, and with the time he missed due to injury, it's not like he was getting worn out.Watching his pinch hit at bat in the ninth before the game was even lost made me think how he would probably made a difference earlier in the game.
ComebyDeanChance - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:14 AM EDT (#305961) #
the trigger seemed to be something the third-base coach Luis Rivera did, who leaned in with arms waving (for no apparent good reason) and either made contact with Carrera, or Carrera was trying to avoid contact with the coach. That was when Carrera fell off the base.

That's how it looked to me as well. And why was Pillar just standing there waiting to be tagged out? Pillar took the team out of another inning this weekend when he paid no attention to the number of outs and got doubled off. I thought at the time that BJ Upton could tell us what Joe Maddon would do with Pillar.
ayjackson - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:38 AM EDT (#305962) #
Jeff Blair made a good point yesterday: this team is more than one player away.

If they're going to make a move at the deadline, it better not be for a rental.
Oceanbound - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#305963) #
Pillar needed to stay on the base to make sure at least one of the runners was safe.
ayjackson - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:51 AM EDT (#305964) #
I say this as a guy who likes Gibby a lot and thinks bullpen trouble has less to do with usage and more to do with bad luck, but perhaps the best move to be made right now is firing the Manager. I think it's unlikely, if we finish .500, that he is brought back next year, so why not rattle the cages now?

Sal Fasano, interim Manager for the rest of the year? Or maybe kill two birds with one stone and get Rivera out of the third base box and into the interim chair?

If you believe that you need to make a move as a catalyst to jump start the team, then maybe the firing of Gibby is the move?

How 'bout this for a week? Fire Gibby; trade for Ross, Kimbrell, and Justin Upton (for Norris, Pompey, Boyd and Foley?)
Gerry - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#305965) #
For most teams to make the playoffs they need to have some luck and win games when they have the opportunity to. The Jays are losing those games when they have a chance to win.

Since the all-star break the Jays are 5-4. One of the 4 losses was a loss to Felix Hernandez, thats an acceptable loss. The other three losses were one run losses, and bullpen losses. Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup and Roberto Osuna each lost a game. On the season Osuna has 4 losses, Cecil has 4 losses and Aaron Loup has 5. Miguel Castro had two. By comparison Dellin Betances has two losses and Andrew Miller one.

Toronto's bullpen has 19 losses, fifth worst in the majors. That is not good in any circumstances but when your starting pitching is hit and miss, it makes it worse.
Gerry - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:24 AM EDT (#305966) #
Even with the losses both BPro and Fangraphs have the Jays with a 30% to 40% chance to make the playoffs. The major reason is that the Twins are supposed to start losing due to their talent level/ pre-season forecast and the Jays are expected to start winning due to their run differential and talent level.
Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#305967) #
This team can win with the talent at hand, notwithstanding the .500 record.  It obviously would help to have one more above-average starting pitcher (beyond Buehrle), but I don't think it is necessary. They can win holding the opponents to 4 runs per game, and that's just about what they are doing. 

It really shouldn't be that hard for this team to win.  The core of this team (Donaldson, Martin, Bautista, Travis, Reyes, Pillar, Encarnacion) is very, very good.   The addition of Sanchez to the bullpen will help.  Pompey's return cannot come soon enough.  When he does, I can easily see the club going 20-2 or something, just by pounding opponents into submission. 
BlueJayWay - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#305968) #
This team is going to go on a run again. They're still doing that thing where they win blowouts and lose extremely close games. I just hope when the 14-3 run comes it isn't too late. The wild card should be attainable.
ayjackson - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#305969) #
I'm generally in the "the run will come" camp, but can't shake that definition of insanity feeling...probably why i suggested firing gibby....feels like you're doing something without actually doing anything
China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#305971) #
In terms of his in-game strategy and bullpen and lineup management, Gibbons is not much better or worse than most other managers.  We can debate it endlessly, and maybe he's a little better or worse, but there's not a big difference.  The only reason to fire him is if it would galvanize the players and spark a greater effort.  Everyone can think of examples in the past where a change of manager seemed to spark a big change in a team's performance. (Cito in 1989 is the example that's always in people's minds.)  But these cases seem anecdotal.  Is there any data on this?  There are probably many more cases where a change of manager didn't help at all.  And why would it be a catalyst for change in performance?  Baseball is rarely a sport where emotion and leadership and inspiration are the driving factors in performance.  What is it, objectively, in a change of manager that would spark a greater effort?  If players aren't already motivated by personal pride and professionalism and huge salaries, what else would motivate them?  Many aspects of baseball, including hitting, could actually worsen if a player is suddenly aware of an emotional need to do better for the new manager. Hitting is partly based on restraint and intellect and cool study of pitches.  Emotion could actually worsen performance there.  So I'm skeptical that a new manager would be a catalyst for improvement.  But I understand the frustrations with the one-run losses -- it certainly does cultivate a desire for desperate solutions.
JB21 - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#305973) #
Exactly. Pillar did what you are supposed to do, he got to third on the rundown. To me, Rivera looked like he had no clue what the rule was.
BlueJayWay - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#305974) #
Yeah. Pillar made it to third, then stayed there. Only problem is Carrera got back to third first, making Pillar there illegally, so he was tagged out. Then Carrera fell over and was tagged out.

Carrera seems to be the new Moises Sierra.

JB21 - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#305975) #
I still think that Carrera would've stayed on third if Rivera didn't start waving his arms and pointing like a crazy man.
Kasi - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#305976) #
CF I'd prefer to have a manager who has a bit better usage of bullpen but most especially one that holds the players more accountable. We've lost too many games because of dumb mental mistakes. At some point you just have to look at Gibbons career record in 1 run games and see that the guy is just flawed. Get him out of there and get rid of Rivera too.
scottt - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#305977) #
Gibby is a replacement level manager. His stats are average. His record is average. He's had average records with average team and average records with team that should have been good.

After he was fired, he spent a few year with Kansas City, still a horrible team then.
In 2012, he led the San Antonio Missions to a 60-80 record (Pythagorean 65-75).

There are dozens of little league managers, why not just pick someone with a winning record?

I don't understand how you can interview guys like Tim Wallach, whose minor team had broken a win record and pick up Gibby.

You don't lose anything by replacing Gibby. The chances that he will lead some other team to a World Championship are pretty much 0.

ComebyDeanChance - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#305978) #
Exactly. Pillar did what you are supposed to do, he got to third on the rundown.

Before reviewing the replay, I thought that Pillar was standing off the base, but instead he was the second man on third and was tagged out. He didn't though, really get to third, because he waited for Carrera to go back. You can see him ease up and let Carrera back. I think it was a play that happened too fast for all involved. Rivera was no help at all .Here's the replay:

http://m.mlb.com/video/v298521283/torsea-mariners-execute-a-362-triple-play/?game_pk=415127
Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#305979) #
Carrera also seemed to me still hung up on what he thought was interference coming back to third (when he ran into contact with Miller with his aggressive left arm, and was never going to get called). Of course, that's just an attempt to cover up his initial baserunning blunder, and then seemed to play a role in the ensuing mistake, where he seemed to drift and let his balance get dictated by Zunino's tag-and-hold.
Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#305980) #
Not only did he not help at all, if Rivera touched him (which it looked like he did when he grabbed at his arm before he thought better of it), he risked getting called for interference in the play himself.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#305981) #
I agree that Gibby is just average or close to it on either side. He's an easy target because, shucks, he got canned unfairly the first time by Ricciardi. Well guess what, when you hire a so so manager and give him a self-renewing contract to ensure he is never a "lame duck manager" he's going to become a target.

Really, he's not doing bad on most nights, but it's games like yesterday where he clearly made moves that put his team in a vulnerable position. On the bright side, I've never seen a baseball team work this hard day in and day out...Pillar, Martin, Donaldson, Bautista, Travis, Reyes, they're all going hard, and that's nice to see.

A combination of poor roster construction (SP and RP never addressed) means that you need an amazing manager to squeeze out every possible win, to draw blood from stone, and that ain't happening. Firing Gibbons won't provide a spark, it'll just put the spotlight squarely on AA, which is what he deserves.
dalimon5 - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#305982) #
I'm a season ticket holder and the amount of times that Rivera is verbally abused by the home town fans...it's becomes comical...he routinely makes errors in judgement in sending the players home.
Dave Till - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#305983) #
For what it's worth, I think that Gibbons is a far better manager than Farrell was. He's more creative about roster substitutions and lineup selections, for one thing.

He also seems to be getting his pitching staff through the season without significant injuries - the only loss was Sanchez, and his injury wasn't arm-related. The Jays used to lose half their pitching staff to arm surgery every off-season; they don't seem to be doing that any more.

I also get the impression that Gibbons has the respect of the clubhouse - I haven't heard anybody complaining.
ayjackson - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#305984) #
From that replay, Pillar did exactly what he was supposed to do. If he goes back, I think he makes the third out trying to get back to second. Both Pillar and the catcher knew exactly what was going on.
JB21 - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#305986) #
Amen to that, but endorsing Gibbons over Farrell isn't a huge compliment to Gibby.
Dave Till - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#305989) #

endorsing Gibbons over Farrell isn't a huge compliment to Gibby.

True, but it's also true (alas) that Farrell has a World Series ring. Which leads me to wonder exactly how much a manager can actually help or hurt his team's success.

#2JBrumfield - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#305993) #
Rivera looked like he had no clue

Really wish we never lost Brian Butterfield. I don't know how Rivera keeps his job. He could be the Keith Acton of the Jays.

Intricated - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#306003) #
My guess is that when Rivera saw both runners get to 3B, he wanted Pillar to (not touch third and) head back to 2B, letting Carrera have 3B, which clearly he got back safely (falling down afterwards notwithstanding).  Worst case, Pillar is tagged out on his way to 2B, best case, Seattle throws it around allowing Pillar to be safe and/or Carrera bolts home somehow.
Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#306005) #
Farrell is -2 vs. Pythagoras so far in his career, with his 2013 team being -3.  That Boston club was awfully good and healthy, so the drop from 100 to 97 was painless.  Farrell didn't have to deal with the equivalent (that year) of losing Stroman and Saunders.  You do improve your chances of overcoming injuries though if you have a better manager than Farrell or Gibbons. 

I said prior to spring training that I could see this club winning 100 games.  And I think that was right prior to Stroman's injury.  I imagine Stroman in the rotation and Sanchez in the bullpen from the start of the year, with Castro not being rushed into the closer role. I don't think that they would be on pace for 100 games, but I believe that the record would be a lot better and that they would have had a chance at a similar record to Boston 2013. 

Nigel - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#306009) #
Here is the list of internal things that I think AA should be doing regardless of approach on trading:

1. fire Gibbons - whether he's below average (as I think he is) or just unlucky, the reality is he has had a long run without producing results, they really should try someone else
2. Pompey in LF/Carrerra to the minors - Pompey would play almost all the time with Valencia getting the odd day in LF against a tough LH starter
3. promote Boyd and Norris and send down Dubront and Loup - personally I would have Boyd start and Norris be the designated long man but your mileage may vary on which way around you would have that it, it could be Norris starting and Boyd in the pen
4. designate Osuna, Sanchez, Hendriks and Cecil as the high leverage relievers, Schultz and Delabar as your medium leverage relievers, Tepera as your low leverage reliever and Norris (Boyd) as your long reliever (not low leverage)

I would do all of those things immediately. Now, they would never do this last item for a host of good (arm protection) and bad (he's the designated closer) reasons but I would strongly consider moving Hutchison to the pen and starting Osuna in his spot.

Lastly, if I was shopping I would be shopping in the Tyson Ross aisle and not the rental aisle.
Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#306010) #
My only comment about this sensible list, Nigel, is that ideally the GM hires a Manager who has his own good ideas.  It is the Manager who should be setting bullpen roles, but I agree (mostly) with your suggestions.  Personally, I don't think Loup has been that bad- his HR/FB luck from previous years just ran out and he now posts a consistent ERA/FIP/xFIP line over his career.  You definitely don't want him facing a RHB in a high leverage situation.  I'd be inclined to bring up Norris and send Tepera down for the 7th bullpen slot, and let Boyd have a go at the rotation. 
Mike Green - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#306011) #
Oh yes, and I wouldn't go with 8 relievers.  Delabar stays down. 
Nigel - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#306012) #
Mike, I generally agree with your views on Loup. My thought is that with the Jays rotation and pen, you need someone(s) who can be counted on to go multiple innings. Loup would be very successful as a high leverage LOOGY, but I'm not sure that this staff, right now, has the luxury of having someone so specialized in the pen. I also agree with the 7-man pen but that appears to be just crazy talk around Jaysland these days so I just assume that's a complete non-starter.
scottt - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#306013) #
For what it's worth, I think that Gibbons is a far better manager than Farrell was.

Farrell was awful, but their record is very similar.

He also seems to be getting his pitching staff through the season without significant injuries.

It's not like he has one starter than can throw complete game and he uses a large bullpen.

I also get the impression that Gibbons has the respect of the clubhouse.

Veterans are getting their way. Smoak is probably not the happiest guy, but he doesn't have the track record to complain. Reyes is probably playing too much for the good of the team. Pompey and Norris can't be happy, but they're not in the clubhouse. Bautista will probably say something if they don't add a starter.
China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#306015) #
"... I also agree with the 7-man pen but that appears to be just crazy talk around Jaysland these days so I just assume that's a complete non-starter...."

I guess you haven't noticed, but there are only 7 relievers in the Jays bullpen these days, and they've been using a 7-man bullpen for most of the past few weeks.
scottt - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#306016) #
My guess is that when Rivera saw both runners get to 3B, he wanted Pillar to (not touch third and) head back to 2B, letting Carrera have 3B, which clearly he got back safely (falling down afterwards notwithstanding).  Worst case, Pillar is tagged out on his way to 2B, best case, Seattle throws it around allowing Pillar to be safe and/or Carrera bolts home somehow.

Rivera doesn't give instructions to Pillar. He's looking at Carrera who is standing half way between 3rd and home. Eventually the catcher comes charging at him and receives the ball from the shortstop. Carrera then runs back to third while Rivera points a him. Pillar is almost at 3rd and slowly walks there while Carrera runs back, the catcher jogs behind him. There is no throw to 3rd. Both Pillar and Carrera step on the bag at the same time. Rivera is not moving.  With both men on the bag and the catcher walking towards it, Rivera becomes animated and seems to be motioning Pillar to run back to second. Pillar doesn't move. Rivera walks forward with a flurry of motion towards second base and eventually seem to touch Carrera on the back which causes him to take a step back off the bag. The catcher reacts by tagging him on the chest. Carrera jumps back to avoid the tag and falls on his ass. The catcher then tags him on the knee. Hilarity ensues everywhere across both leagues.
China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#306018) #
"....A combination of poor roster construction (SP and RP never addressed)...."

I agree that the bullpen should have been sorted out in the off-season, rather than the costly experiments of the past four months.  But as for SP, the Jays constructed a fairly deep rotation and then lost it because of injuries.  You can't blame that on "poor roster construction" because no team is going to have strong back-ups for every key rotation slot.  Going into spring training, the Jays had a rotation that consisted of: Buehrle, Dickey, Stroman, Hutchison, and a fifth position that could go to Estrada, Norris or Sanchez, depending on who won the competition.  Based on any reasonable analysis of 2014 results, the first four slots in the rotation were solid, with the potential to be excellent.  As for the fifth position:  we've already seen that Estrada was a good acquisition, certainly capable of being a 5th starter, and the depth options of Sanchez and Norris were reasonable.  That was a well-constructed rotation with seven capable pitchers for five positions.  Its relatively poor performance was a result of injuries to Stroman and Sanchez, unexpectedly poor results from Hutchison, and unexpectedly poor starts from Buehrle and Dickey.  Perhaps only the rookie problems of Norris could have been anticipated.  Yes, there are always injuries in any season, but the Jays had good 6th and 7th starters as depth.  When you get to the 8th and 9th positions in any team's SP depth chart, you can't expect strong MLB-capable pitchers. And if the criticism is about AA's response to the injuries:  you can't expect Anthopoulos to scramble for a big-name emergency trade in March or April when the prices (in terms  of prospects) would have been astronomical.
China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 07:53 PM EDT (#306019) #
"....His stats are average. His record is average. He's had average records with average team and average records with team that should have been good..."

These are fair points about Gibbons, but you've missed one key factor:  he's been working with an average payroll.  He's competing against teams like the Yankees, whose payroll is $100-million bigger than his payroll.  Sure, there are often teams that get into the World Series with a relatively small payroll, but the percentage of low-payroll teams who reach the World Series is relatively small. Average payroll teams have average chances of reaching the playoffs.
cruzin - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#306032) #
China fan,

I respect the posts you put on here and while I may not necessarily agree with all your views, I can understand your viewpoint. But the part bothers me "but you've missed one key factor: he's been working with an average payroll."

That too me screams total cop out. Yes we understand we aren't the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers. This team that AA put together on paper and according to various indictors should be MORE than an average team regardless of payroll. The fact that it is an average team and has always been under Gibbons regardless if they've had talent to compete or not have talent to compete, means no more excuses for Gibbons. It's not for lack of payroll that this team isn't able to compete on paper. The only difference additional payroll would mean, is that this would look better on paper and we would be even more flabbergasted at why they can only turn average results.
greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#306036) #
At least as of April 1, 2015, the Jays had the tenth-highest payroll in MLB.

http://deadspin.com/2015-payrolls-and-salaries-for-every-mlb-team-1695040045
China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#306037) #
"....the Jays had the tenth-highest payroll in MLB...."

And within the AL East, they have the 3rd-highest payroll.  Look, I'm not arguing that they are poor.  I consider their payroll to be within the middle band of payrolls:  roughly in the band from 10 to 20, not really among the highest.  Of course you can take the same numbers and say that the Jays are within the top third of payrolls.  But they are substantially behind the 9 teams with the highest payrolls, and they are closer to number 17 (Baltimore) than to number 9 (the Phillies).

Source:  http://deadspin.com/al-east-baltimore-orioles-adam-jones-13-307-069-ubaldo-1695062112


Kasi - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#306039) #
And both Tampa and Baltimore have had recent success in our division. Gibbons hasn't, fire the guy already.
greenfrog - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#306040) #
And yet no team has been absent from the playoffs longer than the Jays have. Every other team, from the highest to the lowest payroll, has been in the playoffs over the last two decades except for Toronto.
Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#306042) #

Every other team, from the highest to the lowest payroll, has been in the playoffs over the last two decades except for Toronto.

I blame Gibbons.

China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#306043) #
The Red Sox went 85 years without winning a World Series (1918 to 2004).  The White Sox went 87 years (until 2005).  The Cubs have gone 106 years.  Can these droughts be attributed to a long succession of bad managers?   Did they miraculously improve when they changed their managers?
Kasi - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 11:04 PM EDT (#306044) #
I'd be happy if they would just make the playoffs. Red Sox made the playoffs plenty of times in that span.
Spifficus - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 11:05 PM EDT (#306045) #
*raises hand*

Completely absurd statements (like blaming a manager for the entirety of his 6 1/2 years as well as the other 15 years) doesn't require an indication of sarcasm.
China fan - Monday, July 27 2015 @ 11:18 PM EDT (#306046) #
My comment was in response to Greenfrog and Kasi, not to Spifficus who was self-evidently making an ironic comment. 

In any event, I think that we lack good metrics for measuring the performance of managers, and I don't believe that the playoffs are the only metric that matters.  And there are too many contributing factors that can't be separated out for the purpose of measuring performance.   This is an area that is almost purely in the realm of personal opinion.

Many people are convinced that John Farrell is a terrible manager, and they've held that opinion for many years.  Yet the smart guys who run the Boston Red Sox haven't fired him.  (And when they inevitably do fire him, it doesn't prove that he's a bad manager either.)   I think reasonable people can disagree on whether a manager is good or bad, but when someone tries to cite statistics to "prove" their opinion about a manager, we have entered the realm of opinion and speculation.  It's just not quantifiable by statistics. 

I was a little surprised to see Mike Green recently citing one manager (Lasorda?) as objectively a poor manager, based on statistics.  (I'm going by memory and can't cite Mike's exact words, but he was saying that one specific manager could be objectively measured as poor.   Could he perhaps explain what he meant by that and whether he thinks there are stats to measure a manager's performance?  I am very skeptical.
Sherrystar - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:33 AM EDT (#306048) #
Welcome to Toronto Tulo! Ninja strikes again.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:34 AM EDT (#306049) #

Blue Jays To Acquire Troy Tulowitzki

Huh? Huh.

This should be crazy. Thank you, mlbtraderumors. I didn't need sleep.

ayjackson - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#306050) #
Sweet Mother of Pearl!!
ayjackson - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#306051) #
Remaining salary owing to Ricky Romero going the other way?
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#306052) #
omigod
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#306053) #
reyes plus prospects
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:45 AM EDT (#306054) #
this is amazing.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:46 AM EDT (#306055) #
AA is the fricken best.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#306056) #
latroy hawkins too.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#306057) #
Well, we need to wait to see the total package, but I'm definitely intrigued.

I will say that AA isn't confined by any known boxes. With a team full of RH slugger types and pitching questions, he doubles down and goes for ALL of the RH slugger types, knowing that improvement is improvement, no matter how it comes.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:51 AM EDT (#306058) #
could care less what prospects we give up.
cruzin - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 12:56 AM EDT (#306059) #
"could care less what prospects we give up."

Aside from catchy headlines, you should care what prospects we give up...yeah I know you think we have great farm depth, but this one could cut quite deep.

China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:01 AM EDT (#306060) #
I suppose this deal will be criticized by the crowd who believe that AA is "selling the farm to save his job."   But at a key position on the diamond, it makes the Jays younger and stronger defensively and stronger offensively.  The improved defence will help the pitchers, even if the Jays fail to acquire a top-line pitcher before the trade deadline.  And it is an important sign of long-term commitment by the owners.  It's a great signal for the Jays to be sending to key veterans such as Bautista and Donaldson, who might otherwise have been demoralized and discouraged if AA failed to make key moves at the trade deadline.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:03 AM EDT (#306061) #
you know hawkins is pretty good. still hoofin it 93mph and posting a 2.59siera.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#306063) #
nope cruzin i literally do not care. there is no prospect in the system that i'd be upset about losing to get tulo.

especially given what tulo means to our window of contention as a 30yr old signed longterm.
finch - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:05 AM EDT (#306064) #
TULO FOR REYES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
AA is still the ninja. Love to hear how this developed. No one expected this, in true AA fashion.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#306065) #
not to mention what it says about rogers' financial commitment.
cruzin - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#306066) #
"I suppose this deal will be criticized by the crowd who believe that AA is "selling the farm to save his job.""

Yup depending on the prospect cost, that indeed may be the reaction. I quite frankly don't care about the signal of acquiring players at the trade deadline, when you're playing .500 baseball. If this team was 10 games better, then go ahead and get that player you think will you over the top.

The other parts of your post I agree with, since Tulo is a longer term play rather than a rental.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#306067) #
Norris not traded.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:13 AM EDT (#306068) #
Added bonus - Yankees will not be getting Troy Tulowitzki.
cruzin - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:14 AM EDT (#306069) #
"nope cruzin i literally do not care. there is no prospect in the system that i'd be upset about losing to get tulo."

I know you don't care, I'm just saying you "should". Tulo is a great player no doubt, but adds what 1WAR to our chances this season? I'm also concerned with his injury history. Well at least we possibly have a DH spot available to rest and reduce his chances of injury I suppose.
Mike D - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:15 AM EDT (#306070) #
Norris not traded.

Of course he's not, because he'll be in the forthcoming Justin Upton trade. ALL OF THE RH POWER HITTERS.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:16 AM EDT (#306071) #
Per various uconfirmed sources on Twitter, the Jays are not giving up Norris, Stroman, Hoffman or Sanchez in this trade.   So the worst, I suppose, would be the loss of Alford and other lesser talents.  Even if that happens, in my view, the price is worth paying.  But let's wait for the details. 
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:17 AM EDT (#306072) #
sounds like no hoffman or pentecost either.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#306073) #
And sorry, of course Pompey is another name that could be included in the trade.  But I hope he isn't.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#306074) #
cruzin, we're getting years of an mvp calibre player here.

you should not care what prospects we give up.
jester00 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#306075) #
With Tulo in the fold, I would now be totally ok with dealing EE. To say, the Cards or Pirates? I'm sure thats not coming down the pipe, but I'd be more than ok with it.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:19 AM EDT (#306076) #
I'm a little jealous of the people who are sleeping now and get to wake up to this news.
Four Seamer - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:20 AM EDT (#306077) #
Still 4 days to go, but the biggest deadline trade winner is now clear - way to go, Jerry Howarth.
Mike D - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:21 AM EDT (#306078) #
I'm not quite as sold on the "thanks for the financial commitment, Rogers" argument. Even with Hawkins the trade is payroll-neutral, more or less, for the next two years. Lots of money is coming off the books by 2018.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:23 AM EDT (#306079) #
"....I'm a little jealous of the people who are sleeping now and get to wake up to this news..."

They should be jealous of us for getting the minute-by-minute unfolding of one of the biggest Jays trade in recent history -- and a trade that instantly revitalizes the 2015 season and future seasons too.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#306080) #
"....Lots of money is coming off the books by 2018..."

But Rogers could have simply pocketed that money if it wanted.  Instead it seems to have invested that money in an elite player.  That's good news.
Mike D - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:33 AM EDT (#306081) #
The Argos are in BMO next year. Maybe to protect this new investment, Rogers can pay for another grass scientist or two to help expedite the Guelph project?
cruzin - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:34 AM EDT (#306082) #
"But Rogers could have simply pocketed that money if it wanted. Instead it seems to have invested that money in an elite player. That's good news."

But the fact that 6million is coming back to the Blue Jays, makes one raise an eyebrow on that financial commitment.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:34 AM EDT (#306083) #
Castro on the move.
Mike D - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#306084) #
Castro apparently in the trade. I'm still very OK with the deal.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#306085) #
Now there are reports that Castro is probably one of the minor-leaguers that the Jays are giving up.  If so, I suspect that's a price that most Bauxites would accept. Castro is still just 20 and could turn out to be very good in his career. But if he remains a reliever, not a starter, his value to the Jays would have been somewhat limited.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:44 AM EDT (#306086) #
Looks like the only player I heard we ar losing is Castro, which is not the hugest loss ever. Honestly if it's not Norris or Hoffman or anyone on the big league roster (although I guess they could ship Sanchez) than the only other minor league guy I'd really like to keep is Pompey.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:46 AM EDT (#306088) #
if it's just castro that's crazy.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:51 AM EDT (#306089) #
no money is being swapped.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:55 AM EDT (#306090) #
Wow. Guess I get one win in the crazy trade prediction contest. Forget when but I called Reyes for Tulo. Now How's about that King Felix trade I've been mentioning for a couple years AA? :)
JB21 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:57 AM EDT (#306091) #
Apparently it's 2 more MiLB's + Castro + Reyes.

My prediction, Alford + Pompey.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:58 AM EDT (#306092) #
Heyman is saying that the Jays are giving up two minor-leaguers.   And separately it seems that Castro is confirmed.  So it will be Castro and one other minor-league prospect.  (Worst-case scenario:  Alford or Pompey.)
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#306093) #
Both our minor league OFs? I find it much more likely to be one of them and a pitcher.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:59 AM EDT (#306094) #
Sorry, yes, JB21 is correct:  Heyman says it is Castro plus two other minor-league prospects.
JB21 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#306095) #
Good point, I'm only going off of all the reports saying No Norris, Hoffman, Sanchez, etc.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:03 AM EDT (#306096) #
Still don't see how this is a real move for this year. We're still short pitching. However getting Reyes off the team is a major case of addition by subtraction. Also might be more of a shift in the clubhouse from the Dominican clique which I've wondered if it had anything to do with clubhouse last year.
#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:07 AM EDT (#306098) #
I hope this means Rivera is giving up my favourite number!! ;D
John Northey - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:07 AM EDT (#306099) #
If AA is really wanting to make it wold then Puig is available for trade. Imagine that lineup. Every pitcher in MLB would want the day off when the Jays are in town but the cost would guarantee a lot of 15 to 10 games.
JB21 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:13 AM EDT (#306100) #
Bob Elliot is saying Hoffman
JB21 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#306101) #
So is Davidi
uglyone - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#306102) #
sounds like hoffman is gone.

please no pompey or alford.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:14 AM EDT (#306103) #
"....Also might be more of a shift in the clubhouse from the Dominican clique which I've wondered if it had anything to do with clubhouse last year...."

That's really an unfair crack, verging on racism.  You could just as easily claim that the clubhouse last year was under the lazy influence of American white guys like Rasmus and Lind, and the Jays shifted away from those guys too.  Any of those kinds of sweeping generalizations about specific ethnic groups would be equally wild and speculative, and not deserving of serious discussion.


JB21 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#306104) #
hahaha you changed your mind pretty quickly on the I don't care who we give up train

I agree though.
JB21 - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:18 AM EDT (#306105) #
Just saw a tweet that the Jays haven't made the playoffs in LaTroy Hawkins' 21 year career. Or 20 year old Miguel Castro's life.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:19 AM EDT (#306106) #
China it has nothing to do with racism. Just like any group of people if a subset of them share the same hometown they tend to hang out together and form cliques. I've seen this constantly through school and work. I'm not saying that they're racist but it could form an issue where the clique is more important than the team.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:20 AM EDT (#306107) #
Though I agree that the trade is still worthwhile if the Jays give up Pompey or Alford, it can at least be argued that the Jays have something of a long-term surplus in outfielders, so it's an area where the Jays can afford to give up a prospect.  They've still got Saunders coming back next season, plus Pillar and Bautista, plus either Pompey or Alford (even if one of them is traded). 

It always hurts when top prospects are traded.  But I think the Jays still have a deep enough farm system to continue chasing a starting pitcher, without emptying the farm. 

Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:22 AM EDT (#306108) #
Well if we're losing both Hoffman and Castro I doubt the third piece is on that level. Likely a B level guy or deeper sleeper.
cruzin - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:22 AM EDT (#306109) #
"please no pompey or alford."


Hmmm...are you caring now? lol

Sucks if it's Hoffman for sure, hope there isn't another premium prospect.
Alex Obal - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:26 AM EDT (#306110) #
Of the Jays' pitching prospects, Hoffman sounds like the most Coors-friendly. That checks out.

So it looks like LaTroy Hawkins is going to retire a Blue Jay. This is a red-letter day in franchise history.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#306111) #
If it is a third premium prospect I'll call for AAs firing. You don't overpay for a guy with a 100 million dollar contract already in decline.
China fan - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:27 AM EDT (#306112) #
"....It could form an issue where the clique is more important than the team..."

Even if a so-called "Dominican clique" might exist, how could its interests be different from the rest of the team?  They want to win as badly as everyone else.  Are you implying that the Dominicans would somehow sabotage the team or fail to support its desire to win?  That's just silly.  The Dominicans are as committed to winning as everyone else on the team.

As for "cliques" -- every team has them, and yet every team survives it, so it's nothing to worry about.  Every MLB team has Spanish-speaking players whose English is less than perfect, or sometimes almost non-existent, so they prefer to talk to other Spanish-speaking players.  That's completely understandable and natural.  How is this a problem?  Was it a problem when Osuna and Castro hung out together every day in spring training?  That's not a threat to team unity -- that's just a natural result of the fact that Castro spoke very little English.  No need for ethnic paranoia.


Smaj - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:37 AM EDT (#306118) #
Tulo is a nice upgrade from Reyes, but my concerns run to health...the guy has had some significant injuries & now he is on turf....he is an old 30 year old. Strongly believe that Hoffman will be a strong future #2 or ACE pitcher, can't stand to see him go. Castro is a future closer from my view. The 3rd prospect is hopefully not substantial. I'm not elated with this deal based on two variables (1) Jays need a top of the rotation SP, now two top prospects are traded for a SS (2) Tulo's ability to stay healthy truly concerns me.
cruzin - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:39 AM EDT (#306120) #
As I decide to call it a night. Even without knowing who the 3rd prospect is, I'm already declaring AA is selling the farm to:
1) Save his job
2) Avoid a trade deadline revolt.

When in fact what he should do is:
1) Fire Gibbons, either now or off-season
2) Trade off some veteran players to reload for upcoming years.
Spifficus - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:44 AM EDT (#306122) #
Well, Hoffman stings, but trades to get 5 win shortstops are supposed to sting. Hopefully the third minor leaguer is a low level upside play, or decent-not-great. If that's the case, I'll certainly cast my lot in the 'approve' pile.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 02:44 AM EDT (#306123) #
I don't suppose you've ever worked at a corporation? Cliques absolutely exist and they can influence things like who gets hired, who gets promoted, who gets the best opportunities, who gets shared knowledge with (for example which young players get tutelage from vets), etc. all things that can and do absolutely effect the bottom line of a business, which is to hire the best and most qualified people and make the best product/most money.

There is nothing ethnic about the risks of cliques, just that in this case the thing in common could be language/home. In other places I've seen it be college you attended or a common past experience a group of people shared. Not saying that cliques are all bad either, but it's very easy for the clique members to become more important than the overall organization. I'm sorry you took it to be that I was thinking about this as a racial issue. Wasn't my intent.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#306177) #
Meh.

The first thing that popped into my head was - Anthopoulos is trying to do the Rickey Henderson trade. As you recall, when Pat Gillick couldn't get the pitcher he wanted, and thought his team needed, he got himself a great offensive player instead. But this is not that. The 2015 Blue Jays have a much better offense than the 1993 team (which didn't lead the league in runs scored). But the 1993 team had much, much better pitching than is generally remembered (fifth best in the league), and leagues better than the 2015 team.

I agree that Tulowitzki is an upgrade. I don't think it's a very significant one. It certainly doesn't address the team's actual needs, which can be summed up as pitching, pitching, and pitching. It should represent a defensive upgrade, although I doubt Tulowitzki is as good a defender as he was when he was 25. Nobody is. And older players with a history of injuries moving to artifical turf... you might ask Jose Reyes how that can turn out. On the other hand, until last season's hip surgery, I believe all of Tulowitzki's injuries - and he's had a lot - have been upper body injuries of one kind or another. Which seems more like random misfortune to me.

Obviously, the move doesn't make all that much sense on the offensive side. This team already has so much RH power it's a wonder they can walk upright without teetering over to one side. Reyes was a much better fit, being a different kind of hitter as well as one who spent most of his time batting left-handed. On the other hand... Tulowitzki is a better hitter, he should love the Rogers Centre. And Justin Smoak will probably never have to worry about LH pitchers because the other teams may stop bothering to bring them to the ball park.

Like Reyes, Tulowitzki is under contract through his age 35 season, which means they've swapped a $66 million dollar commitment over three years for a $94 million commitment over five years.

Whether they will regret losing the prospects... nobody knows, and nobody will know for quite some time. Steve Karsay did some nice work in the majors, but it didn't exactly haunt anyone.
Parker - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#306180) #
Well, if this isn't the move that gets the Jays to the playoffs (it isn't) then hopefully it's the move that ends the Beeston/Anthopoulos regime and the team can start over.
Parker - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#306195) #
On the other hand, if Tulo can stay healthy this trade certainly does fit the min/max philosophy of team building advanced by FanGraphs. As well, many analysts consider it a foregone conclusion that the Jays will follow up by trading for a starter.

My initial comment was overly emotional and I apologize for it, but without a corresponding "all-in" trade for an elite starter, I still hold that this trade hurts more than helps the organization.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 28 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#306217) #
If there is any trade for a starter I have to think it's for a controlled one after Tulo. Next years team is set up very well, and it makes no sense to trade guys who could help next year for a player who won't be around.
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