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Gosh. Seems to have been an uptick of interest in the local team lately. (More than 200 comments in a thread, and I act!)


Toronto has won 6 of 7 since the first of the recent deadline moves. It hasn't helped them much in the division, where the Yankees have been beating up on Sox of various colours. But they now hold, albeit very precariously, one of the two invites to the Wild Card Game. The Jays, Orioles, and Twins have all lost 52 games so far - Toronto's played two more games, won them both, so they're sort of in the lead.

The series with the Twins resumes tonight, with the mysterious Drew Hutchison on the mound. The game is in Toronto, where Drew has been very good indeed. In his 10 starts in Canada, Hutchison is 7-1, 2.47; he's allowed just 54 H, 14 BB, 3 HR in 62 IP. That's very, very good. It's the 11 games he's started in the USA that beggar description. He's allowed 84 H, 21 BB and 10 HR in just 51 IP - that's a road WHIP of 2.000 which is... well, it's pretty hard to believe. (What's even harder to believe is that he's only been tagged for one loss in the midst of all of this Suckitude.) We don't normally see those kind of numbers, because pitchers who do that aren't normally allowed to pitch that many innings. In fact, a home-road split this dramatic is something outside my experience. I'd be very interested in finding anything similar in the long and musty annals of The Game.  

Yankees prospect Luis Severino makes his ML debut against the hapless Red Sox (a phrase I really, really enjoyed typing.) Matt Boyd makes his Tigers debut against Johnny Cueto and the Royals. The Angels went into the ninth inning trailing 3-1; with two out and Pujols on first, Cody Allen walked the bases full, gave up a two run single to C.J. Cron to tie the game. He then wild pitched home the winning run. Nice work, there.

Twins at Blue Jays, part 2 | 189 comments | Create New Account
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China fan - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#307799) #
Hutchison's splits are particularly bizarre because in 2014 it was the complete opposite: he was actually better on the road than at home.  He held the opposition to a .706 OPS on the road last year, versus an OPS of .748 at home.  (His WHIP was almost identical on the road and at home last year, and his ERA was lower on the road.)

Not sure if you can conclude anything about his splits from such weirdly different seasons.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 06:55 PM EDT (#307800) #
Angels win on the old walk-off wild pitch.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#307804) #
And Chris Davis hits a 10th inning grand slam to put the Orioles ahead 7-3 in Oakland.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:04 PM EDT (#307806) #
Solid work Cleveland's baseball team! Thanks for the help.

Baltimore is in extrsa but just scored 4 in the top of the 10th in Oakland. Crush Davis hit a grand slam.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:07 PM EDT (#307808) #
The arrival of Josh Thole will be delayed - he's just gone on the 7 Day DL (I find that charming, somehow- the minor leagues are quaint). Russell Martin has to catch Dickey at least one more time.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:19 PM EDT (#307810) #
That was the first time in his career that Drew Hutchison picked a runner off a base.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#307811) #
When did the Twins start wearing Atlanta's uniforms, anyway?
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#307812) #
Donaldson is ridiculous. Tremendous ballplayer.
whiterasta80 - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#307814) #
I see the Mr Hyde version of Drew hutchison has shown up again. He seems to be more and more common these days unfortunately.

He better figure this out soon because if the playoffs started tomorrow then I don't know how you could include him. You'd be better off going with "Joe randomprospect" and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:45 PM EDT (#307815) #
If the playoffs started tomorrow we wouldn't need our 5th starter, which is what Hutch is at this point and time.

We're going to need him to pitch better though, there aren't many options to choose from.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#307816) #

He better figure this out soon because if the playoffs started tomorrow then I don't know how you could include him. You'd be better off going with "Joe randomprospect" and hoping to catch lightning in a bottle.

If he keeps this up for a few more innings, were the playoffs to start tomorrow the Jays wouldn't necessarily be in them.

China fan - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#307818) #
I think Hutchison is doing an excellent job tonight of destroying the notion that he's a "good pitcher when he's not on the road."  If you look at his career as a whole, there's no pattern of him being consistently good anywhere.  He's liable to have a bad day anywhere.  It's a crucial stage of the season, and the Jays can't count on him.  And unfortunately there's no Norris, Boyd or Hoffman to replace him, so the Jays are stuck with him.  

Maybe it's time to consider putting Sanchez or Osuna into the rotation?  Unfortunately there just isn't enough time to stretch them out. 
Chuck - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#307821) #
Lawrie played 2B today to make room for Valencia at 3B.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#307822) #
All right then.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#307823) #
this team is something.

poor kid.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#307825) #
Welcome to The Show, kid.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#307826) #
Kid shoulda kept nibbling.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#307827) #
The combined line for Tulo/Donaldson/Bats so far tonight (through 2 innings):

2/4, 2 BB, 2 HR, 4 R, 6 RBI
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#307828) #
Big Papi homers off Severino, Red Sox up 2-0, as Steven Wright (kind of an interesting story) has fanned 5 Yankees through 3.

Scoreboard watching! It's been a long, long time!
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#307831) #
"Kid shoulda kept nibbling."

lol.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#307832) #
p.s. #CanadianRakin'
Spifficus - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#307833) #
After the Price trade, it almost seems like it should be #Popcorn (If a hashtag has to be used). Of course, I always preferred Dan Aykroyd in Grosse Point Blank vs Canadian Bacon.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#307834) #
From Dave Cameron's fangraphs chat today:

Comment From David
What trade do you think was the biggest overpay or underpay?

Dave Cameron: Rob Kaminsky for Brandon Moss seemed like a high price for STL to pay for a platoon guy with a bad hip having a mediocre season. And the Tulo deal was probably the cheapest acquisition of a high-level player we’ve seen at the deadline in a while.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/dave-cameron-fangraphs-chat-8515/
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#307835) #
yep sawry hashtag has to be used.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#307836) #
and yeah I'm still boggled we somehow got a superelite 30yr old SS essentially for a couple non-elite prospects.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#307837) #
Just realized Clinton Hollon was promoted and he's having a beauty first start for Lansing. Only 1 hit thru 6ip so far.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#307839) #
Need a solo shot now for the Homer Cycle!
hypobole - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#307840) #
Jays hitters going for the home run cycle. Just need a solo shot now.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#307841) #
Great minds, thinking!
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#307842) #
i think EE is about to go on a tear.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#307843) #
Magpie quicker with the keyboard.
zeppelinkm - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#307844) #
Edwin all better? Was that the hardest ball he's hit this year?

If so, look out.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#307846) #
Magpie quicker with the keyboard.

Yes. I can type one sentence faster than you can type two.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#307847) #
Nice debut for Severino (5 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 Er, 7 K, 0 BB.) The Red Sox did make him throw 94 pitches, and the Yankees haven't been able to do anything against the knuckleball. So far.
Chuck - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#307848) #
Just pitching to the score. It's all good.
CeeBee - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#307851) #
Well, Hutch made it through 5...... barely.
Can Dickey pitch on Hutch's days to start?
China fan - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#307853) #
The Jays have a bunch of off days in August and September.  They should use those days to skip Hutchison's turn in the rotation.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#307855) #
Beltran solo HR to get Yanks on the board. Boston still up 2-1 through 7. Wright probably done.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#307856) #
Nice start for Matt Boyd against KC, 7 innings, 7 hits, one run.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#307857) #
It would be nice if Hendriks could get a couple of innings in here. Not a fan of 4 relievers for 1 inning each...
Chuck - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#307858) #
Can Dickey pitch on Hutch's days to start?

As an homage to Wilbur Wood?

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#307859) #
I hadn't heard that Sanchez was serving his suspension until just now.  That strengthens my view that 4 relievers for one inning each is not the way to go. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#307860) #
It may or may not be the way to go, but Hendriks, Cecil and Lowe have done the job so far.  Eating crow with humble pie for dessert.
JB21 - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#307861) #
Janks lost.
China fan - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#307862) #
Osuna has pitched 2.1 innings in the past 3 days, so the Jays probably didn't want to use him tonight unless absolutely necessary.  Better to save him for tomorrow.  I suspect Hendriks might have pitched 2 innings if the Jays were still leading 9-3 instead of just 9-7 as they were.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#307863) #
here we go...
uglyone - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#307864) #
ahhhh....thanks to the veteran presents!

4.5 back.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#307867) #
No objective basis for this based upon end results, but I actually like what I saw from Hutchison tonight. It reminded me of Encarnacion's AB's the last few games - you could see the timing come together - the last 3 innings or so were the best stuff I've seen from Hutchison in a while.
snider - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#307868) #
Bullpen is looking really good. Many good options down there.
Paul D - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#307870) #
This also had the fun impact of giving LaTroy Hawkins a save against all 30 teams, the 10th man to do so.
rtcaino - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#307871) #
Yanks have CC going tomorrow against Rodriguez for The Sox.

That is about as optimal of a pitching match up as you could hope for with those rosters, in hoping for a NYY loss.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#307872) #
I like the fact that in the past two games, the game was close and the bullpen pulled it through.

Right now, the only big hole I see is Hutch. Maybe Stroman fills that hole.

We also have Travis coming back, but I have been pretty happy with Goins play.

I love being excited about August baseball again
Hodgie - Wednesday, August 05 2015 @ 11:53 PM EDT (#307873) #
Pretty sure I read somewhere today that the Jays only really need a fifth starter once in the next 19 games with the off days keeping everyone on schedule. I know who gets my vote to sit if that is in fact the case.

And while the results looked respectable for a couple of innings, I thought Hutchison looked as bad as he has all year. I am not sure he hit his location more than a couple of times in those 5 innings. I admit I constantly forget that he is still young and figuring out how to get MLB hitters out, but watching him talk to himself before practically every pitch does not install a lot of confidence.

robertdudek - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#307874) #
Just returned from the game. Hutch was brutal in the first inning. The pickoff was entirely the Twins player's fault as he stumbled getting back. Donaldson saved hutch with a tremendous defensive play. But the 2nd, 3rd and 4th Hutch was lights out. The fifth should have been easy, but for the error on a routine ball (Smoak easily scoops that). Then hutch fell apart and was barely able to get the last out in the 5th.

If it were me, I would skip him the next time around, let him try to think about being consistent.

The Jays are now 7 wins 0 losses with Tulo in the starting lineup.
Vulg - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 12:16 AM EDT (#307876) #
Nice start for Matt Boyd against KC, 7 innings, 7 hits, one run.

That it came against KC, and Cueto specifically, was particularly sweet.
robertdudek - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 12:18 AM EDT (#307877) #
Also note that Sano hit a ball off the facing of the 5th deck in batting practice. He's going to strike out quite a bit, but he will walk and he has as much power as any under 25 player currently.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:16 AM EDT (#307879) #
There are a lot of constraints than could (should?) be applied to the rotation scheduling the rest of the way:

- Start Price every 5 days regardless of off-days

- Dickey should pitch in all 4 Yankee series, being the only man in the rotation who has a good track record against them

- Estrada is on pace for 170 IP, topping his career high of 151 which he set last year. May want to limit this so he has some gas left for the playoffs.

- Hutchison remains inconsistent at best and probably should be skipped occasionally.

Fortunately these things do not work against each other. In my spreadsheet I’ve lined it up for Price to start 12 more games, Buehrle 12, Dickey 11, Estrada 9, Hutchison 9. Dickey starts the first game of all 4 Yankee series (let’s hear it for Knuckleball Hangover!). Estrada’s last start in my hypothetical schedule is the final day of the season, which hopefully means it won’t matter and Randy Wolf can make the start if Estrada is better off resting up for the playoffs.
Dave Till - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 06:32 AM EDT (#307880) #

Pretty sure I read somewhere today that the Jays only really need a fifth starter once in the next 19 games with the off days keeping everyone on schedule. I know who gets my vote to sit if that is in fact the case.

But he's 10-2! :-) More seriously: it's good that the Jays only need Hutchison to be their fifth starter. It's got to be a bit maddening, both for him and the team: he's amazingly good some of the time, and really awful at others.

It was a bit cruel of the Twins to send a young starter out for his first major league game against the Blue Jays in the Rogers Centre. Not a way to build confidence.

Nice to see all three of Joey Bats, EE and Donaldson connect for home runs. Wow, etc.

A brief moment of commiseration for Danny Valencia - if the Jays make the post-season this year, it will be two years in a row that Valencia started the season with a post-season team but didn't finish with it. Last year, he was with Kansas City before being traded to the Jays.

Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 06:56 AM EDT (#307881) #
If it were me, I would skip him the next time around, let him try to think about being consistent.

Nice one. Drew, as an attempt to teach you to be consistent, you will not be getting consistent playing time.

rpriske - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:17 AM EDT (#307882) #
"Solid work Cleveland's baseball team!"

Just call them the Spiders. That's what I do...
Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#307883) #
Ryan Goins vs John McDonald (career comp). Can you tell them apart?

RG: 223/260/315, OPS+ 60 (77 this year)
JM: 233/273/323, OPS+ 59

RG: 2.7 bWAR in 563 PA, 2.9 bWAR per 600 PA
JM: 6.6 bWAR in 2651 PA, 1.5 bWAR per 600 PA

As Mike mentioned in an earlier post, FG is less kind to both of these players, classifying them both as essentially replacement level.

Jevant - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:28 AM EDT (#307885) #
Obviously the hope is that Goins bat is closer to 2015 Goins going forward rather than career Goins going forward.

There's obviously some reason to hope that we aren't quite at peak Goins yet (at least offensively, since defence seems to start declining almost immediately upon arrival in the bigs in most cases). 

I was never of the opinion that we should be starting Ryan over Reyes, or planning on him as primary 2B, but he's had an acceptable year for his role, and provided he can continue to play D, he should be able to carve out a nice little career for himself (hopefully with a bit more bat than Johnny Mac).

finch - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#307887) #
I don't think we'll be seeing Estrada in the playoffs. My hunch is that Stroman will start in the pen, get 2 starts in the regular season and be part of the rotation, probably on a pitch count of around 70-80 pitches. Hopefully that would get him 5 to 6 innings per start. Playoff rotation:

Price
Dickey
Stroman
Buerhle (when needed)
John Northey - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:55 AM EDT (#307888) #
Poor Valencia.  Just checked his BR page and he has been traded/sold/released at least once a year in 2012/13/14/15.  The man better never buy a house. 
Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#307889) #
Send in the clones. Don't bother, they're here.

Josh Donaldson: 292/358/566, OPS+ 153, 5.7 bWAR
Manny Machado: 291/359/511, OPS+ 138, 5.5 bWAR

finch - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:01 AM EDT (#307890) #
He should just purchase 1 bedroom condos, buy it for cash, and then just rent/lease them up. Who needs a MLB pension!
John Northey - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#307891) #
The schedule is...
August 6 vs Minny
August 7-9 @ NYY
Day off
Aug 11-13 vs Oakland
Aug 14-16 vs NYY
Day off
Aug 18/19 @ Philly
Day off
Aug 21-23 @LAA
Day off
Aug 25-27 @ Texas
Aug 28-30 vs Detroit
Aug 31-Sept 2 vs Cleveland
Day off
Sept 4-6 vs Baltimore
Sept 7-9 @ Boston
Sept 10-13 @ NYY
Day off
Sept 15-17  @ Atlanta
Sept 17-20 vs Boston
Sep 21-23 vs NYY
Day off (last one)
Sept 25-27 vs Tampa (last home games of regular season)
Sept 28-Oct 1 @ Baltimore
Oct  2-4 @ Tampa (could need to clinch playoff slot in Tampa...ugh).

So a #5 will be needed as they have 2 series in a row but the pen should be very fresh this month and set for a few tough stretches in September when we'll have a 30 man pen (if Gibbons has his dreams come true).

Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#307892) #
when we'll have a 30 man pen (if Gibbons has his dreams come true

Levels, Jerry, levels. Relievers, Alex, relievers. Don't need starters if we have nine one-inning relievers.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#307895) #
Dear John,

It is a good idea to try to get Chris Colabello some work against right-hand pitchers because the team hardly ever faces left-handed starters.  I have an alternative suggestion to last night's effort at first base.  When Navarro catches Estrada, how about giving Russ Martin the day off instead of DHing him and letting Colabello DH and Encarnacion play first base.  Martin can use the rest at this point in the season.

You have been quoted as saying that Pompey probably won't be up until September.  Maybe you want to re-think that.  The club needs a 4th outfielder to give Pillar, Revere and Bautista the occasional day off.  Pompey's your guy once Sanchez returns. He's now had basically a full season in the high minors and has conquered it at age 21-22.  The young man can play.  A bench of Pompey, Goins, Colabello and Navarro would be very strong. 

Mike

rtcaino - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#307897) #
"Drew, as an attempt to teach you to be consistent, you will not be getting consistent playing time."

I wonder if letting him rest a bit, and throwing a start in the minors could help. He has done well in the past on extra rest. I do not believe he has been given a start in AAA to work on things.
China fan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#307899) #
During the broadcast last night, there was a brief poignant shot of Gibbons going over to Hutchison on the bench (after he had been pulled) and slapping him on the back about eight times, trying to boost his spirits, while Hutchison remained stone-faced and completely unresponsive to Gibbons.  I worry about the guy.  He's clearly got confidence issues now, and he seems to brood a lot about it.  And understandably so -- it must be terrible to feel that you're letting down your teammates, especially now that he is isolated as the only struggling pitcher on the team.  I do wonder if a couple of games in Buffalo, without pressure, would help him to work on some stuff.  The off-days would allow the Jays to do it.
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#307906) #
Hutchison is fine.

Just unlucky BABIP :)
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#307908) #
Too bad the formatting isn't coming out great. Here's a link to the data. I found it pretty interesting. Seems like its not just bad luck!

http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfx.aspx?playerid=10732&position=P

(I copy/pasted the 'Batted Ball & Movement' Section)

Season Pitch Pitches LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB Strikes Balls Pitches xMov zMov Mov
2012 FA 678 22.8 % 44.7 % 32.5 % 21.6 % 10.8 % 414 264 678 -4.7 6.1 8.6
2012 SL 153 19.4 % 38.7 % 41.9 % 15.4 % 15.4 % 90 63 153 1.8 -2.3 5.1
2012 FT 80 13.3 % 53.3 % 33.3 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 45 35 80 -10.3 5.5 11.9
2012 CH 71 10.0 % 55.0 % 35.0 % 14.3 % 28.6 % 45 26 71 -7.9 2.1 8.8
2012 CU 1 0.0 % 0.0 % 100.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1 0 1 0.3 -2.3 2.3
2012 FC 1 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0 1 1 -5.3 9.6 11.0
2014 FA 1813 22.8 % 29.5 % 47.8 % 22.8 % 7.4 % 1206 607 1813 -5.5 8.6 10.4
2014 SL 690 21.9 % 50.5 % 27.6 % 17.2 % 10.3 % 412 278 690 2.4 -1.4 3.8
2014 CH 347 32.0 % 40.0 % 28.0 % 9.5 % 33.3 % 211 136 347 -8.5 3.7 9.5
2014 FT 199 22.9 % 45.7 % 31.4 % 18.2 % 18.2 % 120 79 199 -9.1 5.4 10.7
2015 FA 1317 31.2 % 32.5 % 36.4 % 38.1 % 14.3 % 894 423 1317 -4.9 9.2 10.6
2015 SL 441 32.1 % 42.3 % 25.6 % 10.0 % 10.0 % 255 186 441 2.2 -0.4 3.3
2015 CH 232 32.8 % 60.3 % 6.9 % 75.0 % 0.0 % 130 102 232 -8.1 4.6 9.5
2015 FT 10 0.0 % 100.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 5 5 10 -8.7 4.2 9.7
Total FA 3808 25.7 % 33.2 % 41.1 % 27.4 % 10.0 % 2514 1294 3808 -5.1 8.3 10.2
Total SL 1284 25.2 % 45.8 % 29.0 % 14.5 % 11.3 % 757 527 1284 2.3 -1.1 3.8
Total CH 650 29.4 % 49.7 % 20.9 % 18.8 % 28.1 % 386 264 650 -8.3 3.8 9.4
Total FT 289 19.6 % 49.0 % 31.4 % 12.5 % 12.5 % 170 119 289 -9.4 5.4 11.0
Total FC 1 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 0 1 1 -5.3 9.6 11.0
Total CU 1 0.0 % 0.0 % 100.0 % 0.0 % 0.0 % 1 0 1 0.3 -2.3 2.3
Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#307909) #
Sorry, pubster, I can't understand what the point is because of the formatting.  Hutchison's BABIP is .354 this year.  He's given up a 25% line drive rate which would tend towards a higher BABIP, a 13% IFFB rate which would tend to a lower BABIP, and more soft contact and less hard contact than usual for him which would tend to a lower BABIP. 

There is an element of interconnectedness between the level of run support that Hutchison has received and his BABIP.  On the ball that Escobar hit off the wall to the opposite field for a double, Revere was obviously very surprised with how far the ball carried.  Some days are better for hitters than other days.  If a pitcher happens to pitch on more of those days than average, you would anticipate that he would get more run support and that he would suffer more damage on balls in play.  That has definitely been Hutchison's situation this year, but you'd need more data to support the inference.  I don't think that the daily environment is the whole explanation- his slider isn't moving the way it was at the end of 2014. 

For what it's worth, ZIPS projects him to have an ERA of 4.27 over the remainder of the year.  Steamer has him at 4.05.  It's a bit surprising considering his career ERA is 4.81 and he's been worse than that this year, but these different systems evidently put a lot of stock in fielding-independent pitching measures.  I don't know if the figures make sense, but I do know that I would want to put my best defensive club behind him to boost his confidence.

Jevant - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#307910) #
Shields is presently on revocable waivers.  I do not realistically expect the Jays to be in on that, although I hope they would be.  Basically replaces Buerhle on next year's team, while upgrading Hutchison's spot for the rest of this year (and arguably being the #2 starter in any playoff matchup...bumps Estrada or Dickey from the playoff rotation, since I'm assuming Hutchison is already out of the running for the top 4 rotation spots for the rest of 2015).
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#307911) #
Hutch is very interesting. You know if the Jays give up on him, they will regret it for sure (more than Hoffman or Norris). My concern is that his bad luck hurts his confidence. It is almost like he needs to against AAA hitting (or Tampa)
eudaimon - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#307912) #
Getting Shields would be a bit much IMO. I'm not confident he will do well in Skydome, and would cost a lot of money. Plus, if we do make the playoffs we only really need 4 starters, and I'm quite happy with the ones we have at the moment. Honestly I don't even know how we'd realistically improve the team at this point, barring some insane trade of Hutchison for another more productive cost-controlled pitcher.
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#307913) #
His LD% is up about 10% on both his fastball and slider.

Thats the first thing that jumps out to me from the data.

Also Hutch's HR/FB rate has doubled for his fastball. For some reason he's not throwing any 2 seam fastballs this year. Last season Hutch had a 30% groundball rate on his fastballs but a 45% groundball rate on his 2 seam fastballs.

I'd recommend he start throwing the 2 seam-er again. More groundballs less homeruns maybe.
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#307915) #
Hutchisons FIP and xFIP are both below 4.10

Don't know how good those stats are though.
Jevant - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#307916) #
Anyone know why today isn't an afternoon game?  Kinda weird, considering the Jays are headed out of town after the game.
Dave Till - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#307917) #

During the broadcast last night, there was a brief poignant shot of Gibbons going over to Hutchison on the bench (after he had been pulled) and slapping him on the back about eight times, trying to boost his spirits

This is why I think some people underestimate Gibbons as a manager. He seems to be good at the people stuff.

I do wonder if a couple of games in Buffalo, without pressure, would help him to work on some stuff.

I'm not a huge fan of this. If he succeeds, it's just triple-A hitters. If he has trouble in triple-A, his confidence falls down further into the well. Another approach might be to put him in lower-leverage situations for a bit - once he starts getting hitters out again, you can move him back up the ladder. This seems to have worked for Brett Cecil.

(By the way: did you know that Cecil didn't give up a run in the entire month of July? He's on a string of 15 consecutive scoreless outings. Sure, they're mostly low-leverage scoreless outings, but still.)

Someone (I forget who) wrote about Hutchison that he is a thrower rather than a pitcher. I'm not sure quite what this means - other than it's an accusation to hurl at someone who doesn't have perfect command - but my guess is that he isn't quite sure what to do when his good stuff isn't working. His Plan B might well be to keep trying, which results in his getting hit.

It's too bad that he hasn't completely found his command: when he's on his game, he not only gets hitters out, but gets them out efficiently. There can't be that many pitchers who have had a 96 pitch shutout this year.

Dave Till - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#307918) #

Anyone know why today isn't an afternoon game? Kinda weird, considering the Jays are headed out of town after the game.

They're headed to New York, which isn't that far away. They could be flying out tomorrow morning.

uglyone - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#307921) #
i think we're probably overemphasizing the importance of a 5th starter. Hutch is no more of an issue than Sabathia weaver feldman Guthrie on the other playoff teams.

hutch has been inconsistent. thoroughly awful in april, quite good in may and june, and bad again in july.

have a little faith in the fips and babips. he won't kill us the rest of the way.
JB21 - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#307924) #
They'll probably fly after the game. In general, baseball players are not morning people and they'd be up pretty late tonight anyway.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#307925) #
Since the beginning of last season, Hutchison has a FIP of 3.91, but an actual ERA of 4.85. That's over 300 innings of reality vs theory; not enough to definitively prove he's broken, but certainly enough to look at possibilities beyond "bad luck."

That said, I don't know what the other options are. You could try Randy Wolf out for a few starts. Or you could start piggybacking Sanchez onto Hutchison's starts with the idea of transitioning him back to the rotation. Neither one really says "Pennant Race."
Dewey - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#307927) #
More groundballs less homeruns maybe.

Please, pubster.  Not “less” homeruns, but “fewer” of them maybe.

Let’s make Da Box one of the very few sites on the internet that gets this right.  (If it can be counted, use “fewer”.  If it can be weighed, use “less”. )

The other one we have to work on is “led” as the past tense of the verb “to lead”.  Yeah, it sounds like the metal “lead”, but it isn’t the metal.  O.K. ?

Btw, I heard Jerry on the radio the other day once again confusing “hone” and “home in”.  Hasn’t done that in a while.
hypobole - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#307929) #
Does baseball have a rule teams have to be in town the day before a game? Some sport does.
uglyone - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#307930) #
fip is no more "theory" than era is.

both describe what has actually happened in reality.

one just happens to do a better job of predicting what happens next.
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#307931) #
Hutch is 10-2. Panic button is not needed yet.

Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#307932) #
For a quick and dirty way to solve Formatting issue try using (in the above example) a comma or period everywhere you would use a space. Whichever works/looks better.
hypobole - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#307933) #
Dewey, this site doesn't allow editing. Earlier today I used "is" rather than "are" for a plural. I would have done an edit, but to make a new post, which would have had to include some explanation, seemed frivolous.
Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#307938) #
Someone (I forget who) wrote about Hutchison that he is a thrower rather than a pitcher.

It was probably me! And it applies to Aaron Sanchez as well. What I'm usually talking about is an inexperienced pitcher who doesn't know how to get by when he doesn't have his A game. (As opposed to someone like Buehrle, who never had a comparable A game, ever.) A pitcher whose game is built on simply throwing the best pitch he can, rather than reacting to what he has that day, what the hitters are looking for, what happened in the previous at bat, what he saw from the hitter on the previous pitch.

Hutchison is remarkably inexperienced for a guy in his second full season in a major league rotation. (He had even fewer minor league innings than Sanchez.) They're both learning everything at the major league level, but Sanchez for now only has to throw for one inning at a time. Which is much simpler, of course.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#307939) #
The theory is that one does a better job of predicting what happens next, but the reality is that Hutchison's ERA has been getting further away from his FIP instead of getting closer.

If you look at his 2014 season, you couldn't say he was good, but that all the indicators pointed to a positive 2015. Instead, he's gotten much worse. At this point, it seems foolish to insist that Hutchison has been a good pitcher experiencing two years of bad luck, which includes some of the most extreme home/road splits anyone has ever seen.

Fangraphs own glossary for FIP comes with this caveat: "If you have to bet on a pitcher’s ERA or their FIP, FIP is the better bet, but FIP tells you about a subset of a pitcher’s results which means that it is possible that it is missing something important about that pitcher’s profile that allows them to run consistently high or low BABIPs."
Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#307942) #
Dewey, this site doesn't allow editing.

I've learned to accept the ensuing typos as a source of Inadvertent Humour. Found Comedy. I've made enough contributions...
Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#307944) #
I wonder what Dewey thinks of "base off" rather than "base on", the expression of choice for young people. And I just learned that "samey" is a word that young people use. I first heard it a week ago!

I was humming and hawing about making this post, knowing that Dewey would be chomping at the bit to make corrections.

Yes, that was a set-up. Hemming. Champing.

Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#307945) #
Let me format that for you!

Season	Pitch	Pitches	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	Strikes	Balls	Pitches	xMov	zMov	Mov
2012	FA	678	22.8 %	44.7 %	32.5 %	21.6 %	10.8 %	414	264	678	-4.7	6.1	8.6
2012	SL	153	19.4 %	38.7 %	41.9 %	15.4 %	15.4 %	90	63	153	1.8	-2.3	5.1
2012	FT	80	13.3 %	53.3 %	33.3 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	45	35	80	-10.3	5.5	11.9
2012	CH	71	10.0 %	55.0 %	35.0 %	14.3 %	28.6 %	45	26	71	-7.9	2.1	8.8
2012	CU	1	0.0 %	0.0 %	100.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	1	0	1	0.3	-2.3	2.3
2012	FC	1	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0	1	1	-5.3	9.6	11.0
2014	FA	1813	22.8 %	29.5 %	47.8 %	22.8 %	7.4 %	1206	607	1813	-5.5	8.6	10.4
2014	SL	690	21.9 %	50.5 %	27.6 %	17.2 %	10.3 %	412	278	690	2.4	-1.4	3.8
2014	CH	347	32.0 %	40.0 %	28.0 %	9.5 %	33.3 %	211	136	347	-8.5	3.7	9.5
2014	FT	199	22.9 %	45.7 %	31.4 %	18.2 %	18.2 %	120	79	199	-9.1	5.4	10.7
2015	FA	1317	31.2 %	32.5 %	36.4 %	38.1 %	14.3 %	894	423	1317	-4.9	9.2	10.6
2015	SL	441	32.1 %	42.3 %	25.6 %	10.0 %	10.0 %	255	186	441	2.2	-0.4	3.3
2015	CH	232	32.8 %	60.3 %	6.9 %	75.0 %	0.0 %	130	102	232	-8.1	4.6	9.5
2015	FT	10	0.0 %	100.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	5	5	10	-8.7	4.2	9.7
Total	FA	3808	25.7 %	33.2 %	41.1 %	27.4 %	10.0 %	2514	1294	3808	-5.1	8.3	10.2
Total	SL	1284	25.2 %	45.8 %	29.0 %	14.5 %	11.3 %	757	527	1284	2.3	-1.1	3.8
Total	CH	650	29.4 %	49.7 %	20.9 %	18.8 %	28.1 %	386	264	650	-8.3	3.8	9.4
Total	FT	289	19.6 %	49.0 %	31.4 %	12.5 %	12.5 %	170	119	289	-9.4	5.4	11.0
Total	FC	1	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0	1	1	-5.3	9.6	11.0
Total	CU	1	0.0 %	0.0 %	100.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	1	0	1	0.3	-2.3	2.3
The trick is to use HTML codes. If you have a mess of data and you want it to line up, use the "pre" code before it begins and the "/pre" code when it ends. It turns what comes in between the HTML tags into pure text. But instead of parentheses you put the "pre" and "/pre" codes inside the symbols for "less than" and "greater than." I can't actually show you, unfortunately - if I had used them just now, they would have gone into effect.
hypobole - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#307948) #
Chuck, I prefer the more formal "ahemming". And I simply refuse to haw.
uglyone - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#307949) #
"The theory is that one does a better job of predicting what happens next"

that's not theory, that's fact.

you're absolutely correct that fip is far from perfect, and that it is missing something key with Hutch....but imo you're wrong about the meaningfulness of his sample size....and you're missing the point that we don't need Hutcb's ERA to regress all the way down to his fips to be a useful #5 the rest of the way. even if it regresses halfway he's fine.

and there's plenty of guys who have had this issue over similar sample sizes and had it sort itself out - including our golden trio of halladay/carpenter/escobar. guys like niese are a good example too.
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#307950) #
Thanks Magpie!

I will say 'fewer' instead of 'less' from now on.

So what predicts what will happen next better? FIP or ERA? Because so far ERA is winning when it comes to Hutchison.
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#307951) #
Season	Pitch	Pitches	LD%	GB%	FB%	IFFB%	HR/FB	Strikes	Balls	Pitches	xMov	zMov	Mov
2012	FA	678	22.8 %	44.7 %	32.5 %	21.6 %	10.8 %	414	264	678	-4.7	6.1	8.6
2012	SL	153	19.4 %	38.7 %	41.9 %	15.4 %	15.4 %	90	63	153	1.8	-2.3	5.1
2012	FT	80	13.3 %	53.3 %	33.3 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	45	35	80	-10.3	5.5	11.9
2012	CH	71	10.0 %	55.0 %	35.0 %	14.3 %	28.6 %	45	26	71	-7.9	2.1	8.8
2012	CU	1	0.0 %	0.0 %	100.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	1	0	1	0.3	-2.3	2.3
2012	FC	1	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0	1	1	-5.3	9.6	11.0

2014	FA	1813	22.8 %	29.5 %	47.8 %	22.8 %	7.4 %	1206	607	1813	-5.5	8.6	10.4
2014	SL	690	21.9 %	50.5 %	27.6 %	17.2 %	10.3 %	412	278	690	2.4	-1.4	3.8
2014	CH	347	32.0 %	40.0 %	28.0 %	9.5 %	33.3 %	211	136	347	-8.5	3.7	9.5
2014	FT	199	22.9 %	45.7 %	31.4 %	18.2 %	18.2 %	120	79	199	-9.1	5.4	10.7

2015	FA	1317	31.2 %	32.5 %	36.4 %	38.1 %	14.3 %	894	423	1317	-4.9	9.2	10.6
2015	SL	441	32.1 %	42.3 %	25.6 %	10.0 %	10.0 %	255	186	441	2.2	-0.4	3.3
2015	CH	232	32.8 %	60.3 %	6.9 %	75.0 %	0.0 %	130	102	232	-8.1	4.6	9.5
2015	FT	10	0.0 %	100.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	0.0 %	5	5	10	-8.7	4.2	9.7
Total	FA	3808	25.7 %	33.2 %	41.1 %	27.4 %	10.0 %	2514	1294	3808	-5.1	8.3	10.2

The 2 biggest differences I see between 2014 and 2015 are his 2 seam fastball usage (FT) and his increased LD rate on fastballs. I don't know why he'd stop throwing his FT since it's groundball rate is much better than his Fastball (FA). I'm thinking maybe if he increases his FTs thrown he'll increase his GB rate and allow fewer HRs. Especially since his HR/FB rate on FAs are so high.
Richard S.S. - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#307952) #
Until Hutchison can control bad stuff happening (as it does with every pitcher), he will never reach his possible potential. Giving up three and four runs or more in an inning is totally unacceptable. Especially when he's so very good in innings before and after. Apparently he's having issues with his pitches and his location, which might be physical and mental by now.

He needs to work on keeping the ball down at all times. He should also be working on mastering his changeup. The best place for that is where he won't cost the big club wins, and that's not up with the big club.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#307953) #
For what it's worth, almost all analysts are of the view that FIP over a single season is more useful than ERA for that same season in projecting next year performance.  As the sample increases, FIP decreases in importance and ERA increases in importance.  Hutchison is coming up to 2 seasons worth of performance.  You'd think that FIP/ERA would be equally weighted and you would end up with a projection of 4.4 or so.  The odd thing is that his FIP measure has been better in 2014-15 and he's young, so it might be that the projection systems project age-related improvement on top of that. 

If he gets 9 starts with a good defence behind him the rest of the way, I'll be happy. 

Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#307955) #
As has been pointed out, the Blue Jays actually have a better record in games started by Hutchison than any other starter:
Hutchison 15-7
Buehrle   12-9
Dickey    10-12
Estrada    9-8
Sanchez    5-6
Norris     2-3
Doubront   1-3
Hutchison himself hasn't had a whole lot to do with these happy results, of course. He must be terribly frustrated and confused. If he didn't think he was letting his team down, if he wasn't having confidence issues, he wouldn't be human. It's a tricky problem for the team. You could skip him a couple of times, try him in some low leverage relief situations as the schedule permits. But it's unknown what that will do to his confidence.
JB21 - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#307957) #
Hutch is 10-2. Panic button is not needed yet.

This made me laugh.
Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#307958) #
He must be terribly frustrated and confused.

Imagine if he were 2-10 and not 10-2!

Dewey - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#307959) #
Anybody here ever “gee” and “haw” behind a pair of Clydesdales?  That was fun. 

Chuck, I’ve never heard “base off” and “base on”.  (My conversations these days tend to be with an ‘older demographic’ than yours, I expect.)  But I’m curious to know what they mean, and how they’re used.  Same with “samey”. 

As for the typos and simple solecisms, I’m with Magpie for the most part:  found humour.  What sticks in my craw is using the wrong word.  Someone will write something, thinking he means one thing; but a word he’s used doesn’t mean what he thinks it means.  So he hasn’t said what he thinks he’s said.   That way madness lies.

I don’t know why I bother, sometimes.  Eheu fugaces!  Anyone who came through the Ontario school system after the infamous Hall-Dennis Report can’t write or think their way out of a paper bag.  There is no hope for them, I tell you!  Just ask jerjapan, my sometime adversary.
christaylor - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#307961) #
What is the weight of grammar commentary? I would like to see less of it on the internet.

I kid, I kid! I respect any and all attempts to be correct especially with those pesky mass nouns.

Now I am going to grab some beers and relax until either there is a game or a debate to watch.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#307962) #
Dewey, the context for "base on" and "base off" is this. 

You and I might say:

"I base my opinion on the results of a 2012 survey of 500 registered ferret owners".

You and I might hear now:

"Well, I base my opinion off the results of a 2014 survey of 1000 registered baboon owners"


I can guess what "samey" might mean, but it would be just a guess.  Chuck, can you help me?
jjdynomite - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#307963) #
To follow Magpie's list of SP records, the Sportsnet guys on the post-game displayed a stat that Hutch is leading the entire league with over 8 runs of support per start (I think it was 8.08). Hence, Hutch's 10-2 record (and 15-7 overall).

If the team kept their current pace, Hutch would be the 4th pitcher to finish a season averaging 8 or more runs of support since 1974.

(Interestingly, Buerhle is in the Top 5 for this season with 7.3X).
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#307964) #
To be honest, grammer really bugs me on tv, in the newspapers and on the internet.

The way people talk, the way people write.

I'm old school. I prefer old english.

lets goeth blue jays!
JB21 - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#307965) #
Isn't it samesy? Kids these days...
Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#307966) #
Chuck, can you help me?

It would seem that samey is the modern version of similar. An example from the urban dictionary: The vocals on The Flaming Lips albums are samey.
Jonny German - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#307967) #
and there's plenty of guys who have had this issue over similar sample sizes and had it sort itself out - including our golden trio of halladay/carpenter/escobar. guys like niese are a good example too.

Thoughts on Porcello? Mine are thus: "Hahahaha Red Sox are paying this chump $80M over the next 4 years hahahaha!".
Four Seamer - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#307968) #

To be honest, grammer really bugs me on tv, in the newspapers and on the internet.

Personally, I liked him just fine on Cheers and Frasier.  Haven't paid a whole lot of attention to his internet work.

Dewey - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#307969) #
Thanks, Mike.  Haven’t heard that yet, thank goodness.  (I don’t like it at all, of course.)  How in hell can you base something “off” something?  Doesn’t make sense to me.  The ultimate test.  Samey . . . well  . . . meh.

chris taylor, the weight of grammar commentary is widely recognized to be incalculably great. (And, of course, by mass nouns, you mean collective nouns -- unless you’re Catholic I guess.)
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#307970) #
IF you hate bad grammar, watch weird Al's new video

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Gv0H-vPoDc

pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#307971) #
i thinketh thou meant to sayeth:

p'rsonally, i lik'd him just fine on che'rs and frasi'r. haven't paid a whole lot of attention to his int'rnet worketh.
Chuck - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#307972) #
Personally, I liked him just fine on Cheers and Frasier.

You should have seem him in Boss where he portrayed the mayor of Chicago. Nice heapin' mess of cynicism (really, in Illinois politics?).
China fan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#307973) #
For those such as Mike who have been agitating for Pompey's promotion virtually every day for the past few weeks, here is the first time that I've seen the Jays commenting directly on the reasons why Pompey hasn't been promoted yet (courtesy of a tweet from Wilner just now):

Gibby: Don't want to have Pompey here as a 4th OF, need him to play every day. Could play a big role here next 10 years.

christaylor - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#307974) #
No one would describe me as Catholic once they met me, but to bring it back to baseball and away from grammar talk that doesn't count -- my baseball taste does tend to be catholic given I might be cheering for one or all of the Jays, Yankees, or Red Sox on any given night.
uglyone - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#307975) #
Based on or based upon?

or based off?

based off of?

based in or based out of? based around?

ach. head hurts.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#307976) #
Well, they do need a 4th outfielder and if it's not Pompey, who else?  Chris Colabello is a terrible answer.  Ryan Goins is a bad answer because it means Goins in left and Revere in centerfield when Pillar rests. 
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#307977) #
All this talk about religion is too heavy for me.

Baseball should change some rules to be more like cricket. Just play for 12 hours at a time. This wait between games painful. =)
pubster - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#307978) #
Isn't Pillar their 4th outfielder?
China fan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#307979) #
"....if it's not Pompey, who else?...."

They could easily promote Carrera again if they truly need a 4th outfielder.  I can sympathize with the argument that Pompey should be playing every day, every inning.  He is still just 22, with only 115 games at the AA and AAA levels in his career.

Carrera, by the end, ended up with a .327 OBP and a .701 OPS at the major-league level this year, which is perfectly adequate for a 4th outfielder.  There's really no guarantee that Pompey would do better, especially if he's a back-up who is stewing on the bench for most of the time.
Ryan Day - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#307980) #
You could play Pompey every day if you rotate the outfielders around. Pillar's played every single game, and has been ice-cold for the past month. Bautista needs some DH time now & then. Ben Revere's basically a 4th-outfielder type.

You could effectively ease Pompey in with some favourable matchups, and also make some big improvements to outfield defence.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#307982) #
If they recall Carrera, that will be fine. I guess that they can do that in 4 days.  I think that they would be better off with Pompey, but it is a judgment call. 
Mike Green - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#307983) #
Navarro catches and Smoak is at first base tonight.  Gibbons is resting Martin so that he's in tip-top shape to catch knucklers in New York.  It occurs to me that New York Knuckleballers sounds at least as good as New York Knickerbockers.  Mind you, the Knicks does have it over the Knucks.
China fan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#307984) #
Speaking of knuckleballers, the Yankees did badly against one last night.  Let's hope it foreshadows a similar inability to cope with another knuckleballer tomorrow.
James W - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#307985) #
I'm not sure where Sportsnet is getting this 8 runs figure. The Jays have scored 154 runs in Hutchison's 22 starts. That's 7 per game (or 7.17 per 27 outs, according to B/R).

Buehrle sits at 6.47 by the same 27-out measurement.
Mylegacy - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#307986) #
In Hutch's 22 starts - did he go 9 innings in each? I think not, thus his run support over the innings he worked divided by 9 might be the correct answer.
eudaimon - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#307987) #
One can hope that 2 knuckleballers in the span of 3 days will ruin the Yankees timing. They've been pretty hot with the bats lately... at least until they came up against that other knuckler.
Nigel - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#307988) #
The reason that Pompey should be up is that neither Revere nor Carrera are really adequate defensive CF's. Pillar could use some time off and Pompey is really the organization's only good option defensively in CF. I would also take the over on Pompey's offense versus both Revere and Carrera but I understand that's merely an opinion versus fact.
Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#307992) #
It's also possible that they're counting the runs scored while he was actually in the game, and then computing it per 9 IP. I can actually remember - it must have been 10 years ago - looking at Josh Towers and Dave Bush midway through the season. Towers was like 5-1 and Bush was 0-5, despite similar ERAs and similar overall run support per game. But the Jays were scoring all their runs in Bush's starts in the late innings, generally after Bush was out of the game.
James W - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#307993) #
That makes sense, thanks for clearing it up.
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#307994) #
Is EE getting ready to heat up? I think so...
Four Seamer - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#307995) #
Is EE getting ready to heat up? I think so...   If this is the "getting ready" stage, I look especially forward to the main event.
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#307996) #
Yes... I think you are right ;)
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#307997) #
Holy cow! This team can score!

I am so excited about this weekend against the Yankees
Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#307998) #
HOLYCOWCO?
Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#308001) #
This is not the highest scoring team in franchise history - it's unlikely that they'll plate as many runs as the 1999 and 2003 teams did in the heart of Enhancements Era.

But man, it sure feels like it is.

Fun fact. Through 109 games and six innings, the team has scored 587 runs. The 1978 team scored 590 runs. Total.
China fan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#308002) #
So, barring a very extreme bullpen collapse, the Jays tonight will pull within a half-game of the first WC spot.  They'll be 3 games ahead of Minnesota and 1.5 games ahead of Baltimore for the second WC spot. They'll be 2.5 games ahead of Texas and 3.5 games ahead of Tampa Bay.   And most intriguingly of all, they could be within 3.5 games of the AL lead.  The Red Sox are tied 1-1 with the Yankees in the 7th inning, so keep an eye on that game.
rtcaino - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:15 PM EDT (#308003) #
"This is not the highest scoring team in franchise history - it's unlikely that they'll plate as many runs as the 1999 and 2003 teams did in the heart of Enhancements Era."

Highest scoring relative to league average, surely?
robertdudek - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#308004) #
I haven't checked, but both the 92 and 93 teams were about half a run over league average. This team is about 1.05 runs per game above league average. The Reds of 75 and 76 were about 1.45 runs over average. So why not call these guys the Big Blue Machine?
electric carrot - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#308005) #
I'm on board with Big Blue Machine. It's a great name.
China fan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#308006) #
I like it!  #BigBlueMachine

Another great win, and a sweep over the Twins.  Unfortunately the Yankees have taken a 2-1 lead over the Red Sox in the late innings, but the Jays have gained ground on every other team in the division and the WC race tonight.

JB21 - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#308007) #
As well, 1.05 runs as a % in this run scoring environment is huge.

Sweep. 8-1 since we acquired Tulo. Feels pretty good.

Now if only the Red Sox can put together a little comeback in the 9th.
robertdudek - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#308008) #
The last AL team to exceed league average scoring by over a run was the Yankees in 2007 - 1.08. During the lively ball era, the Red Sox and the Indians (twice) did it as well. Before tonight's game, the Jays were at 1.04. They have a chance to get the highest mark in the AL since the Jays came into existence (I haven't checked earlier seasons).
Lylemcr - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#308009) #
1.05 is impressive, but what is that % wise? It is definitely a pitching era right now.
rtcaino - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#308010) #
#BigBlueMachine is pretty great, Robert!
ayjackson - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#308011) #
You know what else is a big blue machine? Thomas the Tank Engine. Thomas the Tank Engine is a big blue machine.

#thomasthetank
soupman - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#308013) #
this is quite the run the jays are on!

i wonder if it brings back any memories for tulo of the rox run at the end of 2007?

was at the game tonight. highlight for me was definitely the pillar catch. i thought he had NO CHANCE to get to it. great play. if there's anything to criticize, maybe an unnecessary risk up 6 or 7 runs, but it was definitely amazing.

hutchison's line reminds me of ricky nolasco from a few years back. another guy that tantalized with great FIP #s, but never really got it together for any length of time. don't know how their repertoire compares though - just on the top of my head.
Magpie - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#308014) #
Big Blue Machine

That was what they called the Tory party apparatus that ruled Ontario for 40 odd years, which has an unfortunate connotation for the likes of me. Still... pretty good.
King Ryan - Thursday, August 06 2015 @ 11:56 PM EDT (#308015) #
Prior to tonight's game the Jays had scored 4.34% of the total runs across MLB.

The last time a team did that was the 1996 Mariners, who were at 4.35%. Since 2000, the top marks are:

2013 Red Sox 4.21
2011 Red Sox 4.21
2003 Red Sox 4.18
2011 Yankees 4.17
2007 Yankees 4.15
2011 Rangers 4.11
2009 Yankees 4.08
2005 Red Sox 4.08
2004 Red Sox 4.06
2010 Yankees 4.03
2002 Yankees 4.00

So...yeah, it would be cool if the Jays could top that list.

BTW, the '92 Jays were at 4.49%
Vulg - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 12:09 AM EDT (#308016) #
The '96 Mariners scored 4.35% of total runs with 2 fewer teams - Arizona and Tampa, who joined in '98.

The '92 Jays got 4.49% with 4 fewer teams - Colorodo and Florida joined in '93.

The offense this season is just amazing.
christaylor - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 12:49 AM EDT (#308017) #
Nolasco is an interesting comp -- it would be disappointing to not see Hutchison develop into a front-line starter but I would take this 5 year run from him, if he's got it in him. Those IP totals would be great and everything else would certainly play at the middle/back end of a rotation.
uglyone - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 01:37 AM EDT (#308018) #
"If it's a rookie pitching or a guy that's been around for a while, we've got that feel of whose butt are we going to kick today," said Buehrle, who pitched seven innings of three-run ball. "That's a good feeling. "

"There aren't too many teams going to beat that team over there," Twins right fielder Torii Hunter said. "They've got a great squad. The way they hit the ball is just unbelievable. When they hit the ball, it sounds like car crashes."


nice squad we have here.

#NorthernMight

King Ryan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 01:38 AM EDT (#308020) #
Certainly. Here are the R/G numbers since 1900 as a percentage over MLB average R/G.
Year	Team	R/G	MLB 	RG%
1931	NYA	6.88	4.81	143
1950	BOS	6.67	4.85	137
1933	NYA	6.10	4.48	136
1953	BRO	6.16	4.61	134
1936	NYA	6.87	5.19	132
1976	CIN	5.29	3.99	132
1927	NYA	6.29	4.75	132
1939	NYA	6.36	4.82	132
1915	DET	4.99	3.81	131
1932	NYA	6.42	4.91	131
1932	PHA	6.37	4.91	130
1905	NY1	5.03	3.90	129
2015	TOR	5.34	4.14	129
1907	DET	4.54	3.53	129
1913	PHA	5.19	4.04	129
1933	PHA	5.76	4.48	128
1937	NYA	6.24	4.87	128
1909	PIT	4.54	3.55	128
1948	BOS	5.85	4.58	128
That is compared to MLB as a whole, not the particular league. For league-specific it looks like this:
Year	Lg	Team	R/G	Avg	RG%
1902	NL	PIT	5.46	3.98	137
1931	AL	NYA	6.88	5.14	134
1976	NL	CIN	5.29	3.98	133
1950	AL	BOS	6.67	5.04	132
1913	AL	PHA	5.19	3.93	132
1914	AL	PHA	4.74	3.65	130
1953	NL	BRO	6.16	4.75	130
1927	AL	NYA	6.29	4.92	128
1906	NL	CHN	4.55	3.57	127
1930	AL	NYA	6.90	5.41	127
1996	NL	COL	5.93	4.68	127
1965	NL	CIN	5.09	4.03	126
1915	AL	DET	4.99	3.96	126
1975	NL	CIN	5.19	4.13	126
2015	AL	TOR	5.34	4.26	125
1946	AL	BOS	5.08	4.06	125
1908	NL	NY1	4.15	3.33	125
1971	NL	PIT	4.86	3.91	124
1909	NL	PIT	4.54	3.66	124
1907	AL	DET	4.54	3.66	124
:-)
Richard S.S. - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:54 AM EDT (#308021) #
The future three games will send a message as to who wants to be in the Postseason.
Chuck - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#308022) #
The future three games will send a message as to who wants to be in the Postseason.

I would suggest that both the Yankees and the Blue Jays want to be in the post-season, regardless of how this series goes. And I am quite sure that each team knows this of the other.

hypobole - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 08:51 AM EDT (#308023) #
Chuck ruins the narrative.
Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#308024) #
The back-to-back line drives down the left-field from Navarro and Smoak in the rally last night were pretty great.  Smoak looked surprised afterwards.

The bullpen is in great shape for the Yankee series with Schultz and Sanchez unavailable for Dickey's start and then Price going on Saturday.  Osuna can easily pitch an inning in two of the games.  This is fun.

soupman - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#308025) #
My hope for Hutch at this point is for him to be a poor-man's Dickey.
This offseason is going to be interesting. The front office turnover combined with all the decisions that need to be made on SP.
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#308026) #
After 3 days rest, Sanchez will be available for a two-inning stint if necessary on Saturday or Sunday.  One hopes it won't be necessary on Saturday.

It was nice to see Smoak and Revere breaking out of their slumps.  The lineup continues to have top-to-bottom strength.  Now if only Pillar would bounce back from his hitting slump.  I agree that he needs a break.  But when his defense is so good, how can you bench him, even for a game or two?  It's a dilemma. Whether you put Revere or Pompey in CF, there's a definite downgrade in defense. Right now, and perhaps correctly so, there's a huge emphasis on bolstering the defense. It has contributed to the dramatic increase in pitching performance since the all-star break.

Any word on Travis and his recovery?  Goins had a nice little bump in his offense recently, but that won't continue.

Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#308027) #
I am eager for Travis' return too. On the other hand, I would not be surprised if Goins' offensive bump from terrible to serviceable will not last.  It is founded on increased control of the strike zone, something which is not that much of a surprise in light of his minor league record and his age. 

The difference between a rested Pompey and a tired Pillar in centerfield with the glove is probably negligible or non-existent.  Ezequiel Carrera hasn't played since he was sent down.  It's a strange thing to do if the club was intending to recall him. 

uglyone - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:50 AM EDT (#308028) #
according to fangraphs the new additions have been worth 1.1war in the first week.

Tulo's 0.9war first week almost matches reyes' 1.1war for the jays all this year.
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#308029) #
"....I would not be surprised if Goins' offensive bump from terrible to serviceable will not last...."

Judging by the context of what you were trying to say, it's possible that you got lost in the thickets of the double-negative there. A short consultation with Dewey might be helpful.

In any event, I agree with your basic point that Goins is a better hitter than he once was.  Most impressive is his patience at the plate.  He has 8 walks in his past 11 games, boosting his OBP to .405 in that stretch.

As for Pillar:  he's slumping offensively, but he certainly didn't seem tired defensively last night.  With a six-run lead, he didn't need to sacrifice his body with a leaping grab and a heavy fall to the turf, but he did.  And it was amazing.

People keep forgetting that Pompey and Pillar were competing head-to-head for the CF job in April, and Pillar was far better defensively.  Pompey was handed the CF job, and Pillar was supposed to be the LF, and yet it soon became clear that Pillar was much better defensively.  Pompey may have improved somewhat since then, but I don't see any reason to assume that he's as good as Pillar by now.
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#308030) #
As for Carrera:  the Jays announced on Aug. 3 that he had cleared waivers and had been outrighted to Buffalo.  Yesterday was just three days after that announcement, and players often are granted a short break (two or three days) when they are reassigned.  It's quite possible that he requested a couple days to go home or be with his family or something like that.  When a veteran has been in the majors for most of the season and is suddenly demoted, teams are usually patient enough to give them some time off.

Also, does anyone know the rules on veterans who declare free agency after being demoted?  I think it's possible that a player who clears waivers and is outrighted to the minors can still declare free agency and spend a few days looking at possible offers from other teams.  I believe Tolleson and Phil Coke did the same this year.  (Tolleson decided to stay with the Jays system, while Coke departed.)  So maybe that's what happening with Carrera.  In that case, Carrera might in fact not be available to the Jays as a 4th outfielder, which does indeed boost the chances that Pompey will be promoted in the next week or two, especially when the 8-man bullpen is no longer needed.  (Which could be quite soon.)

Jonny German - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#308031) #
"People keep forgetting that Pompey and Pillar were competing head-to-head for the CF job in April, and Pillar was far better defensively. Pompey was handed the CF job, and Pillar was supposed to be the LF, and yet it soon became clear that Pillar was much better defensively. "

Um... they were competing in April but not in March? Pompey was "handed" the job with no consideration of spring training or how they'd played in previous seasons?

I'm with Mike in not expecting much defensive dropoff from Pillar to Pompey.
Jonny German - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#308032) #
"...especially when the 8-man bullpen is no longer needed. (Which could be quite soon.)"

I remain very unconvinced that it was ever needed. Loup has not pitched since Valencia was DFA'd, and has thrown 1 pitch since July 26. Schultz has thrown 2 mop-up innings since the Valencia DFA.
Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#308033) #
Judging by the context of what you were trying to say, it's possible that you got lost in the thickets of the double-negative there. A short consultation with Dewey might be helpful.

Mea culpa.  Dewey is forgiving of those who acknowledge the error of their ways.  In George Carlin's memory, I will say "three santa marias" and I am hopeful that this may purify my soul.
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#308034) #
Loup and Schultz were both warming up in the bullpen in the 9th inning on Wednesday night, with the Jays clinging to a two-run lead and the tying run at 2B.  And frankly I was glad that both were available, even though Hawkins miraculously survived the rally.
Chuck - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#308035) #
Tulo's 0.9war first week almost matches reyes' 1.1war for the jays all this year.

I ask, mainly jokingly, but not entirely, who gets charged for the -1.0 WAR for the game the Jays mopingly phoned in the day before Tulowitzki arrived? People cite the team's 8-1 record with Tulo, but it's really 8-2 post-Reyes.

Spifficus - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#308037) #
It's the exchange rate, Chuck.
Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#308039) #
I wonder where the club will place Stroman for the beginning of his rehab period.  You could make a case for Vancouver because it isn't likely to be too hot, and the level would be appropriate.  I imagine that the Nat would be packed for that. 
ogator - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#308041) #
I'm in Vancouver and I'm going to the Nat this afternoon. It's pretty packed for Spokane...without Stroman!
Ryan Day - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#308046) #
I imagine Stroman would at least get a couple outings in the GCL, if only to keep him close to all the training & rehab staff. Then they could bump him up to Dunedin, and avoid flying him back & forth across the continent.
Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#308047) #
You're probably right, Ryan.  Florida in August can be brutal though. 
bpoz - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#308048) #
Thanks for the humor. I enjoyed it.
ayjackson - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#308050) #
Florida has also had a bunch of rainouts lately and they may want a more reliable environment.
Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#308051) #
Yep, you definitely want to go to Vancouver to avoid the rain!
92-93 - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#308053) #
"Anyone know why today isn't an afternoon game? Kinda weird, considering the Jays are headed out of town after the game."

I saw Robert Allen in the airport in NY yesterday, so don't worry, he should be nice and rested.
robertdudek - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#308054) #
Yep, you definitely want to go to Vancouver to avoid the rain! Pretty sure summer is the dry season in Vancouver.
pubster - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:37 PM EDT (#308055) #
Vancouver might be in a dome.

Mike Green - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#308056) #
I know, Robert.  I've been to Vancouver many times at this time of year and am familiar with the frequent forest fire warnings.  I still find the idea of travelling to Vancouver for its lack of rainfall amusing.  Maybe it's giddiness on a Friday afternoon in a pennant race with the club going into New York. 
robertdudek - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#308058) #
I was right. Vancouver averages 6.7 rain days in August (versus 10.2 in Toronto). That's any day with at least 0.2mm of rain.
China fan - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#308059) #
Smoak is back in the lineup at 1B tonight, a nice reward for a good game offensively and defensively yesterday.

Goins is batting 7th tonight.  He only has 25 plate appearances this season at a lineup spot higher than 8th, but he's been getting on base at an impressive rate recently.  Seven walks in his past six games.

JB21 - Friday, August 07 2015 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#308063) #
I live in Vancouver and I'm pretty sure I can count the number of days it has rained this Spring/Summer on 1 hand.

I think the Nats have had 1 game rained out through this year, as luck would have it.
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