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Features This Day In Baseball: 16 August 2005
I am intense. No question about it.
-- Roger Clemens

Our topic for today, as promised, is the National League Cy Young Award. As it happens, I think we have an excellent historical analogy, both handy and relevant. Consider the following season:

 W   L   G  GS  CG  SH  SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+
26   9  38  38  30   5   0  326.0  295  106   88  21   46  218   6   8  1307  2.43  2.96  122
This pitcher led his league in Wins, Innings, Complete Games, and K/W ratio.

He polled no votes at all. Not a sausage. Bugger-all.

Perhaps the voters were disappointed with his performance? His name, of course, was Juan Marichal and the year was 1968. This was the famous Summer of the Pitcher, and in St. Louis Bob Gibson was having a season for the ages - 22-9, 1.12, 13 shutouts, 28 CG in 34 starts.

I haven't heard anyone say it - not yet anyway - but isn't it possible that Roger Clemens in 2004 has been better than Bob Gibson in 1968? Gibson posted his 1.12 ERA in a season when the league ERA was 2.96. Roger Clemens at this moment has a 1.32 ERA in a year when the National League ERA is 4.28.

I don't think the question is whether Roger Clemens has been the best pitcher in the National League this season. I think a better question might be whether Roger Clemens, at age 42, is having the best season of any pitcher, ever.

This is very bad luck for Chris Carpenter, just as it was for Juan Marichal. Carpenter's 2005 season is probably better than the seasons posted by at least seven of the last ten Cy Young winners. Bad timing, Chris.

But it could be worse. Just ask Juan Marichal. Here are Marichal's seasons from 1963 through 1966:

 W   L   G  GS  CG  SH  SV   IP     H    R   ER   HR  BB   SO  HBP  WP  BFP   ERA *lgERA *ERA+
25   8  41  40  18   5   0  321.3  259  102   86  27   61  248   2   2  1270  2.41  3.19  132
21   8  33  33  22   4   0  269.0  241   89   74  18   52  206   1   4  1089  2.48  3.57  144
22  13  39  37  24  10   1  295.3  224   78   70  27   46  240   4   2  1153  2.13  3.61  169
25   6  37  36  25   4   0  307.3  228   88   76  32   36  222   5   3  1180  2.23  3.68  165
He didn't get any Cy Young votes - zero, nada, none - in any of those years, either.

Anyway, here's my ballot:

1. Roger Clemens, Houston
2. Chris Carpenter, St. Louis
3. Pedro Martinez, New York
4. Roy Oswalt, Houston
5. Dontrelle Willis, Florida

The day's games:

AL
Texas (Rogers 11-5, 2.99) at Cleveland (Sabathia 8-9, 5.10) 7:05
Boston (TBA) at Detroit (Robertson 5-10, 4.10) 7:05
New York (Johnson 11-7, 4.29) at Tampa Bay (Waechter 4-8, 5.32) 7:15
Minnesota (Radke 7-10, 3.71) at Chicago (Garcia 11-5, 3.64) 8:05
Toronto (Downs 1-2, 5.02) at Los Angeles (Byrd 9-7, 3.88) 10:05
Baltimore (Chen 9-6, 4.16) at Oal;and (Blanton 7-9, 4.05) 10:05
Kansas City (Greinke 3-14, 6.09) at Seattle (Pineiro 4-7, 5.69) 10:05

NL
Washington (Drese 7-12, 5.67) at Philadelphia (Lidle 9-10, 4.61) 7:05
San Diego (Lawrence 6-12, 4.80) at Florida (Vargas 3-0, 2.38 ERA) 7:05
San Francisco (Schmidt 9-6, 4.29) at Cincinnati (Milton 6-12, 6.48) 7:10
Pittsburgh (Redman 5-12, 4.75) at New York (Benson 8-4, 3.54) 7:10
Los Angeles (Lowe 8-11, 3.97) at Atlanta (Smoltz 12-6, 2.90) 7:35
Chicago (Maddux 9-9, 4.54) at Houston (Pettitte 10-8, 2.62) 8:05
Arizona (Halsey 8-8, 3.96) at St.Louis (Suppan 11-8, 4.12) 8:10
Milwaukee (Santos 3-11, 4.18) at Colorado (Francis 11-8, 5.77) 9:05

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 12:05 PM EDT.
This Day In Baseball: 16 August 2005 | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#125719) #
Question: Does Clemens get your MVP vote? Only Pujols and Lee lead him in NL VORP.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#125734) #
It'll be interesting to see how much of an ERA lead Clemens would need to 'overcome' fewer wins.

Of course, he won last year when I thought Johnson was an easy choice, so if he lost this year being the best pitcher it'd be a wash (at least for him).
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#125735) #
A good question is why not to vote for Roger, outside of 'he who has the most wins gets the Cy Young'. Be prepared to hear Cy voters spouting these off.

1) He has yet to pitch more than 8 innings in a game
2) He pitches good enough to lose - Houston in 1 run games when Roger starts = 4 wins and 6 loses
3) Selfish - wants to pitch at home rather than doing what is best for the team (reality is 13 home starts vs 11 road)

And that is about all I can think of. The fact that 4 of those 1 run loses were 1-0 scores, of which Roger allowed that one run not once (!) won't factor into the voters minds I suspect (he should've hit a home run or talked his teammates into scoring more runs I guess).

His ERA every month has been below 2. His home park _hurts_ him - he has a 2.08 ERA there vs 0.37 (yes, zero point three seven) on the road.

I thought his two years here were amazing. Dang. Those two triple crowns of pitching were just warm ups for Houston.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#125739) #

Clemens does deserve the Cy Young, although as has been pointed out, Johnson deserved it last year.

Clemens has struck out fewer and walked more than either Martinez or Carpenter. His superior ERA results from Houston's superior DER behind him (.767), and his phenomenally low HR/F rate (here's the THT chart). These things are not really sustainable. I am quite sure that by the end of the season, Clemens' ERA will be close to, or above 2. It's still a fabulous season for a 43 year old, but nothing like the best season ever by a pitcher.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#125747) #
but nothing like the best season ever by a pitcher.

He needs to pitch for the next six weeks like he has for the past 20, of course.

But if he does, it's going to be right up there.

[ Reply to This ]
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#125757) #
If Washington makes the playoffs, Chad Cordero is going to get a lot of Cy Young support. I'm not saying he *should* -- just that he *will.*
[ Reply to This ]
#2JBrumfield - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#125760) #
He polled no votes at all. Not a sausage. Bugger-all..

I'm sure Marichal must have felt that life's a piece of sh**, when you look at it.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#125764) #
He felt like Kevin Phillips-Bong, shurely?
[ Reply to This ]
Malcolm Little - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#125795) #
Clemens is absolutely the Cy this year. I don't think it could be missed.

I'm glad I kept him for my fantasy team; I traded away Carpenter. After seeing him here for so long, I never thought he could keep up his plausible Cy impersonation for an entire season.
[ Reply to This ]
DepecheJay - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#125812) #
Eduardo Perez owns RJ and the Yanks. Another 2 homer game for him, one in the 9th off Mo to tie it. Waechter throws 9 solid innings and it's 3-3 headed to the 10th.

Meanwhile, David Ortiz homered with 1 out in the 9th off Fernando Rodney and that game is also tied at 3 headed to the 10th.
[ Reply to This ]
Nick - Tuesday, August 16 2005 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#125817) #
Using the Cy Predictor devised by Bill James, Carpenter is the NL Cy Young winner this year in a landslide. Then again, the Cy Predictor said that Eric Gagne would win last year and he finished a distant 7th.

Cy Predictor this year says:

1. Chris Carpenter (175.4)
2. Roger Clemens (141.2)
3. Chad Cordero (134.6)
4. Dontrelle Willis (130.3)
5. Roy Oswalt (128.9)

Last year's predicted finish in NL:

1. Gagne
2. Isringhausen
3. Clemens
4. Schmidt
5. Johnson

Actual:

1. Clemens
2. Johnson
3. Oswalt
4. Schmidt
4. Zambrano

Last year's AL predicted:

1. Santana
2. Rivera
3. Schilling
4. F. Cordero
5. Nathan

Last year's AL actual:

1. Santana
2. Schilling
3. Rivera
4. Pedro, Nathan, and K-Rod all had 1 3rd place vote apiece.

This year's AL predicted:

1. Rivera
2. Garland
3. Buehrle
4. Colon
5. Halladay

A fairly crude method, but fun discussion starter. Here is a link with the Cy standings:

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/features/cy?season=2005
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 17 2005 @ 01:28 AM EDT (#125840) #
Just to be clear - my ballot is not a prediction, it's how I would vote. I think there's a better than even chance that Carpenter and Rivera will win the awards.
[ Reply to This ]
This Day In Baseball: 16 August 2005 | 12 comments | Create New Account
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