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Last Friday, Blue Jays Consultant (Baseball Operations) Keith Law graciously took two hours from his schedule to grant an exclusive interview to Batterís Box. The wide-ranging e-mail conversation, conducted by your Coach and GM, touched on everything from the 2003 draft to minor-league sleepers to the teamís amazing May run to the inner workings of the Jays front office. Below is an edited transcript of that conversation. Our thanks once again to Keith for making this possible.

BB: Letís start with some background. Can you tell us a little about yourself?

KL: I was born and raised on Long Island, and I turned 30 last week. My degree is in sociology and economics, although economics ended up being my real interest. I also spent a lot of time following baseball and generally goofing off.

BB: When did you first get bitten by the baseball bug? Did you play Little League, high school?

KL: I was a year young for my classes in school, and Iím short to begin with, so I never played any sports in high school. But Iíve liked baseball since I was old enough to watch the Yanks get swept out of the 1980 playoffs. I started writing for Baseball Prospectus in 1997, and as people read my stuff, more doors opened.

BB: Who are your seminal influences?

KL: The one writer who turned my thinking around was Eddie Epstein, who wrote the first STATS Minor League Scouting Notebook - now defunct. He summarized a lot of the principles we now take for granted, and once I had read that book - which was really more about the players than the theory - I started reading everything I could get my hands on.

BB: Most every sabrmetric fan thinks you have their dream job. What have you been up to?

KL: Iíve been fortunate enough to be involved in a lot of processes beyond statistical analysis, like arbitration and the draft. Iíve really been pleased with how receptive some of the coaches and scouts have been to what I can bring to the table.

BB: Whatís JP like to work with?

KL: I couldnít imagine a better boss or mentor. Everyone likes working for him. He has brought a single strategy to baseball operations that governs everything we do, and heís been consistent about it from day one.

BB: Tell us about some of the other key personnel in the front office.

KL: Tony Lacava is kind of my twin from the scouting perspective - we both work directly for JP, almost as ďspecial assignmentĒ types. Tim McCleary is our Assistant GM and manages many contract negotiations, arbitration, waivers and roster management, and other technical matters. Jon Lalonde, Charlie Wilson, and Kevin Briand represent the Toronto contingent of our scouting department, and they absolutely shone during the leadup to the draft. And Iím not sure what Ron Sandelli does, but heís always there for dinner.

BB: Some Jays TV broadcasts actually include OBP, and I saw OPS used in the Globe & Mail last month for the first time. Are the more advanced (relatively speaking) stats making real headway ?

KL: Weíre definitely seeing and hearing more about things like OBP and slugging percentage, which is a mixed blessing. Itís better than talking about hitters in terms of their RBI totals, but obviously most of those numbers need context, and none of them - not even OPS - really tells you much about the playerís overall performance.

BB: How do you statistically compare playersí defensive abilities, and how important are those criteria in your overall evaluation of a player?

KL: I have yet to see a defensive metric with any predictive value. So at this point, we rely more on traditional methods of evaluation, with statistics coming into play more as a reality check than as a determining factor.

BB: Letís talk about the clubís on-field performance. Was April discouraging?

KL: April was discouraging only to the extent that we were losing games we probably could have won. We donít expect to run with the Yankees and the Red Sox just yet - JP has been upfront about our timetable. We did feel that after the first 20 games, our schedule evened out a bit, and weíd face more teams with whom we lined up better.

BB: Then, of course, there was May. Mark Hendrickson has talked about a ďdefining moment.Ē Can you pinpoint a time or an event that seemed to spark the turnaround?

KL: The ninth-inning comeback against Kansas City, clearly. Not only did our offence keep fighting, but that was one of the first games where our relief corps had an opportunity to have that kind of an impact on the outcome of a game.

BB: How was that four-game sweep in New York?

KL: Well, as a former Yankee fan, I enjoyed it. But you also have to remember what they did to us to start the season, so letís not get too far ahead of ourselves.

BB: Tell us about the organizational philosophy thatís being implemented in the system.

KL: Hitters who control the strike zone and hit for power, pitchers who work quickly and throw strikes. Itís reflected in our scouting and our player development.

BB: Name five minor-leaguers whom every Jays fan should keep their eye on.

KL: Keep your eyes on:

- Alexis Rios, who has developed greatly as a baseball player over the last year and is now better able to make use of his tools.
- Vince Perkins, with a devastating slider and mid-90s fastball; as his control improves, heíll start to get a lot more attention.
- Guillermo Quiroz, already just 3 homers short of his 2002 total, despite being one of the youngest regulars in AA.
- John-Ford Griffin, who hit some tape-measure BP shots in spring training. And
- David Bush, our 2nd-round pick from 2002, pitching very well in his first year as a starter.

BB: How about five minor-league sleepers?

KL: I think both Jorge Sequea and Jimmy Alvarez have good shots to at least become major-league utility infielders, if not something more than that. Sandy Nin has gotten very little attention, but heís pitching very well in the Sally League and has excellent command of a low-90s fastball. Tim Whittaker should end up catching in the big leagues, since catchers with hitting ability are hard to find. And Simon Pond might not be sneaking up on people any more, but the guy can hit.

BB: Any word on Francisco Rosarioís recovery from the Tommy John procedure?

KL: Heís doing fine so far. Remember, heís just eight months off surgery.

BB: Your A-Ball pitchers are an organizational strength. Who are the three best hurlers down there?

KL: In no particular order, Iíd say Bush, Dustin McGowan and Perkins are the three guys in A-ball who have the best combination of stuff and of development to date.

BB: Tell us about Aaron Hill, your first-round draft choice.

KL: Itís hard to find bats of that calibre at premium defensive positions. Weíll always have a hard time passing on a player like that, especially when he shows the plate discipline that Hill had in college. Heíll report to minicamp in Florida and be assigned either to Auburn (the higher of our two short-season clubs) or Pulaski.

BB: How about the players chosen in rounds 2 through 10? Any sleepers in there you want to brag about?

KL: I could brag about all of them, but I think most teams would say the same about their own selections. We were very happy to get a bat like Christian Snavelyís as late as we did [6th round]. Weíre also thrilled with the starting pitching we obtained, like getting Josh Banks in the 2nd round after we expected him to go earlier than that.

BB: Once again this year, pitchers were your primary target in the draft.

KL: We decided that our organizational need was pitching over position players, so thatís what we emphasized. You have to have a strategy before the draft even starts, so that youíre making minor decisions during the draft.

BB: You didnít take a high-schooler till the 19th round this year. Whatís the truth behind the rumour that scouts were told not to bother to look at high-schoolers?

KL: That rumour is completely false. I was really disappointed to see that printed in a local paper without any attempt to confirm or deny it with the front office.

BB: We like to ride the local baseball writers. Have you had any encounters with them? Iím thinking of a certain ďRain ManĒ articleÖ.

KL: The Toronto media has been, on the whole, very good to me. Mike Ulmer wrote a nice piece about me in December, and while Geoff Baker's copy editor didnít do him any favours, his infamous piece on me had some good content about JP's philosophy. I've only had one writer come after me in print, but overall our press corps is very friendly and I think they like what we're doing with the team. If nothing else, we give them plenty to write about, because we're different.

BB: What are your favourite baseball bookmarks on the Net?

KL: That Baseball Prospectus site is pretty good. Other than that, I spend most of my time on local newspaper sites and Baseball America (I subscribe to their premium service). The signal-to-noise ratio is pretty low on a lot of the baseball sites I used to frequent pre-Blue Jays.

BB: Is Batterís Box read by anyone with the club?

KL: I read it somewhat regularly, but I think Iím the only one in the front office. I donít know of any players who read the site, although I would guess some of them do. Most of the guys have laptops and use the Net quite a bit.

BB: Outside the Jaysí front office (and Batterís Box, of course), who are the smartest people about baseball that you know?

KL: That troika in Oakland includes some serious brains. Iíd like to see the three of them on Jeopardy! sometime.

BB: Youíre getting a reputation as a pretty mean guitar player. Do you ever do any jamming for more than just fun? What are your other hobbies?

KL: I just play for fun. Itís relaxing, and thereís great satisfaction in learning to play a new song, no matter how simple. I like to read, mostly classical literature, anything by PG Wodehouse, history of science books, and of course, books about baseball. I love to cook - actually, thatís probably my main hobby. When I get home from a trip to Toronto, usually the first thing I do is cook an elaborate meal. In the fridge right now, Iíve got a chicken soaking in buttermilk to be fried up tonight.

I guess you could say that my attention is easily diverted. Ooh, shiny...
An Interview with Keith Law | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Pistol - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#100464) #
Nice work guys.

pitchers who work quickly and throw strikes

That struck me as a little odd. Not the throwing strikes part, but that they target pitchers that work quick. It's not something I would have thought of as an advantage.

I have yet to see a defensive metric with any predictive value. So at this point, we rely more on traditional methods of evaluation, with statistics coming into play more as a reality check than as a determining factor.

This surprised me a bit since the A's have a system in place to measure defensive value (according to Moneyball). I would have thought JP would do something similiar, although I suspect the 'predictive value' part of his answer is probably why they wouldn't use it.

I was a little surprised that he put JFG in the top 5 to watch. I would have thought Arnold and Gross would be higher in the eyes of the Jays.
_Matthew Elmslie - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 10:18 AM EDT (#100465) #
This surprised me a bit since the A's have a system in place to measure defensive value (according to Moneyball).

Well, even in Moneyball Lewis says that the A's system has no predictive value.

I would have thought Arnold and Gross would be higher in the eyes of the Jays.

Maybe he figures that everybody already knows about them.

I was pleased to see that Law, like all good-hearted people, reads P.G. Wodehouse.
robertdudek - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#100466) #
I think it's a good idea for pitchers to work quickly. I would suggest that it is beneficial to the hitter to have more time to think about what the pitcher might throw and where he might throw it. The pithcer has a gameplan against each hitter he's going to face; the hitter has to react to what the pitcher does.
_benum - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#100467) #
It's good to know that Trachsel will never be back with the club.
Putting aside performance, a pitcher who works fast makes for a much more enjoyable game.
_R Billie - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#100468) #
In terms of ceiling as well, the other guys are higher than Arnold or Gross.

I think working quickly, other than that old intangible about keeping the defence on it's toes, shows that a pitcher has some confidence and has a plan before facing a batter. A pitcher is also more likely to stay within his mechanics if he keeps up a steady rhythm rather than taking a couple of minutes or taking a walk around the mound to think about things.

Also, from a fan's standpoint...I absolutely abhor slow workers. My nightmare is watching a game where Cory Lidle or Jeff Tam especially have people on base. I was at a game where Jeff Tam was getting hit around and without exaggeration, he was taking up to a minute or even two between pitches. I know this because I was watching the stadium clock and five minutes had passed he was still facing the SAME batter. That kind of thing makes me want to hurl expletives at the field. Slowing down obviously doesn't help his performance so why do it?
_rodent - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#100469) #
"...That struck me as a little odd. Not the throwing strikes part, but that they target pitchers that work quick. It's not something I would have thought of as an advantage."

Work fast, throw strikes, change speeds. I seem to remember Jack Morris saying it, but I'm sure he wasn't the first.

Nicely edited interview, Kent & Jordan.
_Vlad - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#100470) #
Working quickly could also be a sign of confidence in the pitcher, a sort of "measurable intangible".
_Chuck Van Den C - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#100471) #
Slowing down obviously doesn't help his performance so why do it?

To forestall his imminent release? I don't think any pitcher has been placed on waivers while he's still on the mound.
_A - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#100472) #
Great interview guys!

Just like to tag this in here because it seems to fit indirectly...ESPN collated a list All-Time teams for each of the 30 MLB clubs, at the moment Robbie Alomar leads the voting for best Jay ever with 35% of the votes (also up for the honour is Delgado, Steib, Fernandez and Bell).
_Jordan - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#100473) #
There's now a separate thread on the all-time Jays lineup.
_Ryan - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#100474) #
\When I get home from **a trip to Toronto**, usually the first thing I do is cook an elaborate meal.\

Does Keith, like Tony LaCava, work primarily from a location other than Toronto? I'm curious about how many of the top people in the team's front office are actually based in the city. I guess it's not really necessary to have everyone in one location anymore (aside from the players :-)).
Gerry - Tuesday, June 10 2003 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#100475) #
It really is interview day. Not just interview day, but an interview day when Bill James makes sense! Click on the link in my name to get to the article. It fits neatly with the Keith Law piece.

If the link does not work, here it is.... http://slate.msn.com/id/2084193/

Interesting comments about minor league pitchers and that he is working on defensive metrics. The downside of his employment is that his work may remain hidden from us, until it leaks out.
_Jerry Howarth - Wednesday, June 11 2003 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#100476) #
Great interview, Kent, with Keith. Very well done. I enjoyed it and I enjoy Keith's work, too. Good to see you at the SkyDome Tuesday Night.
Keep up your professional work on your battersbox site for all of us!!
Craig B - Wednesday, June 11 2003 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#100477) #
I enjoyed it and I enjoy Keith's work, too.

Well, Jerry, I've been enjoying your work for (literally) as long as I can remember. Thanks for visiting our site, I hope you'll feel free to contribute your comments whenever the mood strikes you...
_gid - Monday, September 22 2003 @ 12:54 AM EDT (#100478) #
[posting to an old thread. this relates to systems for evaluation of defense]

Well, even in Moneyball Lewis says that the A's system has no predictive value.

No, the conclusion was that the differences from player to player simply are not that substantial, at least in lot of positions. This came up midway through the book where the A's had to replace Johnny Damon at center field (he was lost after the 2001 season to free agency). They weren't worried about replacing his offensive contribution (he had a mediocre OBP) but they worried about how many runs would be lost because of anticipated poorer defense from Terrence Long. Their prediction was that with Long in for Damon, opponents would score 15 more runs a season. This was reassuringly low, and they figured to make up the deficit elsewhere in the lineup.
_Matthew Elmslie - Monday, September 22 2003 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#100479) #
Here's the passage I was thinking of when I posted that:

(from Moneyball, page 136) There was one other big glitch: these sorts of calculations could value only past performance. No matter how accurately you valued past performance, it was still an uncertain guide to future performance.
An Interview with Keith Law | 16 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.