And I begin the bidding with ... Billy Koch. There won't be a lot of variations in the answers, so we'll also use "How many saves will he get?" as the yard-stick for awarding the No Prize. Last year I gave my love, but nobody seemed to want this, so this time it's nada.

Oh, piffle. That should say, Billy Koch, 14 saves, traded in July, as somebody mentioned on a different thread.

Justin Speier with 23. Excellent call on the new QOTD/MYOR!

Miguel Bat.... nah.

Brandon League with 18

Brandon League with 58

Other positive things next year:

O-Dog wins the Gold Glove
Adams is rookie of the year
Hinske starts off great, cools a bit, and returns to his rookie form.
Shea wins the batting title
Wells wins a gold glove and hits 40 homers.
Rios hits 25 homers.
Halladay wins 22, Lilly and Bush win 15, Batista wins 12, and Towers wins 11, with ERA of: 2.50, 3.95, 3.5, 4.00, 4.50

So that's all nice.

Paul D., you owe me a new sarcasm detector.

Justin Speier with 29. I figure he'll start out with the job and will manage not to lose it...

maybe im blind but or it's just early but I havn't seen anything about them have signing Scott Schoeneweis to a 2 year deal for $5.25 mil.
I can't decide if im happy about this, by looking at his numbers but he is left handed so im anxious to see him work.

Speier with 24. Same reasoning as Magpie.

Here's a team 2005 budget update;

-all figures in US $.

- dugout dollars gives non arbitration players $10,000/ year per service time, I'll do the same. The league minimum moves to $315,000 this year I believe.

Catcher:
-Myers $700,000
-Zaun $950,000

First base:
-Hinske $3,000,000

Second:
-Hudson $345,000

SS:
-Adams $315,000
-Mcdonald $400,000

Third:

-Koskie $5,500,000
-Menninchino $650,000

LF
-Cat $2,500,000
-Johnson $345,000

CF
-Wells $2,900,000

RF
-Rios $320,000

DH:
-Hillenbrand $2,500,000 (I'm assuming he's a Jay and money is
sent to cover arbitration)

Starters:
-Halladay $10,500,000
-Batista $4,750,000
-Lilly $3,100,000
-Bush $320,000
-Towers $345,000

Bullpen:
-Speier $1,900,000
-Schoeneweis $2,500,000
-Lightenburg $2,500,000
-Frasor $320,000
-Koch $900,000
-League $315,000
-Gaudin $325,000

I have 12 pitchers and 12 hurlers, one roster spot open.

The total adds up to $48.2 million from a projected $53 million dollar budget. Hope this helps.

So for the non-economically minded, what happens to that $4.8 million? Carried over, like cell phone minutes, or do they expire, like airline miles?

Carried over, like cell phone minutes, or do they expire, like airline miles?

Use them for an upgrade before they expire! I suggest upgrading the first baseman.

Billy Koch, to start the year, Speier in the middle of the year and League to close out the year (HAR!) ... and each will have exactly 11 saves come Oct. 1.

Gitz, if nobody seemed to want your love this year, how did you manage to have a kid?

Even though I'm probably gonna be the only one projecting a three-way tie, I'll be even MORE specific: Koch 11-for-16; Speier; 11-for-14; League, 11-for-11.

In looking over that roster again, I noticed the $6.9 million for three relief pitchers. That seems a lot, particularly if Schoeneweiss is used as a LOOGY. At that price, the Jays can't afford to have a guy throw only 45-50 innings, even if they're somewhat high-leverage ones.

Gitz, if nobody seemed to want your love this year, how did you manage to have a kid?

I'll let that one slide. Now if only my wife had done the same with the mailman. Ah, the classics . . .

Boy did we overpay for Schoinwies... I wanted him on the Jays, but not at 2.5

Koch is my guess for releiver... Speier/Lighter for set up. League as the LR/MR if he doesnt start in AAA. Frazor/Chulk as MRs. Schoinwies for backup starter/LR, maybe replacement for towers.

By the way, I should add that I do NOT think Koch should be given the ball in a save situation. It's clear that Speier is the best reliever on this team, and hopefully he will be used as such.

I admit I'm totally stealing this line from John Britain at Primer, but the Toronto roster is starting to look like the menu at a Bavarian micro brew pub;

Hillenbrand
Ligtenburg
Koch
Speier

I can just imagine somewhere in Munich somebody ordering a pint of "Schoeneweis dark".

It's been that kind of day.

Then you'd think this team will do well if they play any road games in Coors Field or Busch Stadium, or even Miller Park, if you count "Miller" as a beer.

Gitz, the other thread today got pretty negative, so I thought i'd be insanely positive.
:)

You know lads, I'm afraid I might have unwittingly given Griffin/Baker their next big Blue Jay diatribe,

"Ricciardi plans Aryan master race makeover of team"

I suppose they'll add Gregg Gross to the aformentioned players as evidence of J.P's nefarious plot.

I think Speier will hold the closers job from day one and end up with 37 saves.

It's always a bit more fun to be optimisitic...

My highly improbable guess: Esteban Yan with 18.

Hijack, ok so the last thread is closing in on 300 posts, no chance to read through all that, so excuse me if this is already discussed, as i'm sure it was, but what's the deal with 5.25M for shownewies (sp?)? i know he wanted to be a starter, so did they have to pay him a huge premium to agree to stick in the pen or what? Is JP using up his budget so that he doesn't loose it? that would be fine, but two years? why waste next year's budget too? maybe cause he'll be fired by then. and we'll be left with a team full of hinske's, lightenburg's, and shoenewies (why do i even attempt to spell that?).
enough negativity, i'd rather have these guys then nobody i guess, same goes for hillenbrand, although i get jealous when i see the tribe getting juan-gone on a minor league deal.

enough negativity

Hah! Go back and read that other thread!

My utterly improbable guess for the 2005 saves leader. Due to injuries and ineffectiveness of some members of the relief staff, Jamie Vermilyea will get the call to the show in June and by late July will have himself established as the closer and will save 14 games by the end of the season to edge out Justin Speier who finishes with 12.

So what did the press conference end up being? I was unable to access outside communication for the last few hours.

You know logically I have to go with the majority here and say that Speier will be the saves leader. Nineteen.

However I think the real story will be that Hillenbrand will say O-Dog was right about JP in spring training 02 - and not cuz he's a sharp dressed man - because he won't let his new best pal Schoenewies start. With the clubhouse in chaos JP will instruct Gibby to put SS in the rotation and move Batista to the pen. Speiere will be listed day to day shortly after that and Batista will end the season a 6 - 9 record, 13 saves and 4.85 era.

SS days as a starter again will be short lived as he does not win a single game starting. League is called up from an outstanding AAA season and finishes in the rotation thus beginning a dominant career.

Just a guess.

The utterly improbable save results have gone too far, so, I'll go so far that no one can top my uttermost unlikly prediction...

Jp will get so utterly frustrated with the lack of closure in the jays pen that he will join the 40 man and pick up 12 saves before the deadline when he'll be traded to a contender by himself for the "good of the team, at which point Frank Menechino will take over the remainder of the season keeping in track with his career ERA + of infinite, he get 12 saves too, and be sooooooo good he'll stay there for 3 years before the Yankees get him to replace Rivera and 5 years after that goes to the HOF in a jays cap...

I predict that "the field" will have more saves then the Jays top guys. I.e., the Jays saves leaders will have less than half of the Jays saves.

Chad Gaudin, 18 saves.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=ap-diamondbacks-estes&prov=ap&type=lgns
Jays are supposed to announce the trade for Hillenbrand tomorrow COMN for details.

I know there was talk of 'Zona sending cash with Hillenbrand. Anyone have anything on that. If so, where would that money go?

http://www.battersbox.ca/archives/00001519.shtml
COMN for last year's guesses, if anyone wants to revisit the time when Aquilino Lopez was...you know, pitching with Toronto.

Last year's "winner" was a guy from the Jacksonville Suns. I'll assume JP will trade for another pitcher from the Dodgers' AA team: Brian Steffek will lead the Jays with 19 saves. You heard it here first!

There was no press conference.

Mirror, Mirror on the wall, who's the most dependable of them all?

I'm gonna go with Hawainan punch out for 21 saves, beating out just-inspire with 15

Jason Frasor - 26

So is Hillenbrand coming or not? And why the hell do you hold a press conference to announce that Scott Boras has robbed you blind? Kline signed for just a bit more and Schowenwise isn't anywhere near as good.

I don't think they held a news conference, and JP offered Kline more money than he accepted.

Read this over at ESPN.com. Says it'll happen tomorrow.

Hillenbrand is to be traded to Toronto for right-hander Adam Peterson, who struggled in his brief major league stint last season but has a fastball in the mid-90s range. Peterson had a 2.54 ERA and 15 saves with Double-A New Hampshire.

Hillenbrand hit a team-best .309 for Arizona last season with 15 home runs and 80 RBI, but after earning $2.6 million last year he is eligible for arbitration, so the trade will be a money-saver for the Diamondbacks, who want a payroll of about $65 million next season.

Ryan B, i just said that a couple posts before.

So basically with the moves that have been made and the Hillenbrand trade. This leaves Chacin or Towers as the odd man out. Assuming that JP meant it when he said that League would be in the pen. I'd rather let Chacin be the 5th starter, but I guess that's why they play in Florida.

Whats the story re: Justin Miller?

Today's word is displacement, but I for one do not see the previous thread as something 'negative'. It's good to blow off some steam when reality doesn't meet expectations. Did anyone really get hurt? No. The frustration's been building here for at least a month now, and today it went over the top. What I see is a bunch of passionate fans that want to win. Nothing wrong with that. I wish the rest of this slumbering city/country gave as much of a damn about this team as the people on this site do, even when they're pissed off with its direction (?).

Remember, we still have our team. Yes, we are low down in payroll, but there are teams with less to spend then we have. Good things are on the horizon, even if we all want them now. The waiting game sucks, but we know what it feels like to come through that waiting game and hit the pinnacle, and then do it again. It makes these crappy times seem as if they were all worth it. Once this team's farm system begins bearing fruit and the wins start going up again, the free agents will come back. Who could blame them for not wanting to come to a 'rebuilding' team? Free agents flock to contending teams like birds flying south every winter (or the highest bidder, which ain't us). Until then, let's take what we can get and stick it to 'em, like the Fightin' Jays of Yore! What I want most of all is a never quit attitude. GO JAYS GO!

Chris Hammond only costs $750,000. Isn't he a better pitcher for 2005 than Schoeneweis?

We will all be inspired by Justin Speier's 33 saves in 35 chances(Gibbons, by the way, figures out how your best reliever should be treated and he also come out with 8 wins in about 85 innings with an ERA a tad under 3) as he goes to the all-star game and plays a solid role in the Jays march to 84 wins...

2005 Opening Day Starting Lineup is set

SS Adams
2B Hudson
CF Wells
3B Koskie
DH Hillenbrand
LF Catalanotto
RF Rios
1B Hinske
C Zaun

Looks pretty damn solid to me

Who was JP bidding against for Schoinwies? Seriously.

Opening Day Lineup

C Zaun
1B Hinske
2B Hudson
SS Adams
3B Koskie
LF Cat
CF Wells
RF Rios
DH Hillenbrand
Bench - Johnson, Menochino, Myers, McDonald or Huckaby if Myers can't hack it anymore

Starters - Halladay, Lilly, Bush, Batista, and one of Towers, Chacin or Downs

Pen - Speier, Koch, Schoenweis, Fraser, Lightenberg, and 2 of League, Chulk, Miller, Walker and Gaudin

Not great...but not too bad.

Pete, might it make more sense to flip Vernon and Shea? Vernon hits for a whole lot more power and might be a better #5 (I think he's a better #3 too though). Eh, just thinking out loud, as I wouldn't want to give up 34 AB's from Vernon, as each spot you move a guy down he loses about 17 AB's (actually PA's) during the year.

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=fanball-bluejaysschoeneweism&prov=fanball&type=lgns
I've yet to see anything about Schoeneweis costing $5.25M. The link from Yahoo (who take data from fanball.com, BBRRS = that sheet of ice I just drove on) says it's a "two-year, $2 million contract with Toronto."

I've yet to see anything about Schoeneweis costing $5.25M.

Scroll to the bottom of this story.

As soon as I started looking, I found many references to it. Thanks for another one.

$2.5M this season.. too much for Schoeneweis, but I suppose having somebody is better than nobody.

I know this is off topic, but can someone start a thread about Spring Training and specifically the Jays in Dunedin??

Kevin, Drop me a line with what you've got in mind and we'll see what we can do.

Morning everyone,

Anyone has access to the Globes Insider Edition? Jeff Blair has an article that looks pretty interesting. If someone has link or even summarize, that'd be great!

QOTD-I'll say Speier keeps the job all year and ends up with 28

I know there was talk of 'Zona sending cash with Hillenbrand.

And I believe a later article (in the East Valley Tribune) said that there'd be no cash in the deal. I'd be surprised if any money was coming with Hillenbrand. $4 million in the current market is about right (especially if SS is getting $2.5). If Arizona didn't think he was worth $4 million they would have non-tendered him, so I doubt they'd throw in money to make a deal, although I hope I'm wrong.

New QOTD: Who leads the Jays in saves this year?

Kerry Ligtenberg!

Over at BTF, the Schoeneweis signing is not being overly well received.

Schoeneweis has exactly one skill: the ability to get out LHB. That precludes him from being a useful starting pitcher though starting is clearly his preference. I saw him interviewed yesterday and instead of being grateful about unfathomably parlaying LOOGY skills into $5M, he was making very thinly veiled remarks about how he could "step in and help the pitching staff in other ways if necessary" (you mean as a starter?) but that if his job is "to get the lefties, he'd do that too".

I'm certainly sounding like a broken record, having railed against this signing enough yesterday, but 24 hours later I am still baffled. Can you imagine the sarcasm had Brian Sabean or Kenny Williams done this deal?

I think Schoeneweis will be used for more than just a batter or two. I mean this is a guy who logged 200 innings a couple years ago... Batista hasn't even done that. Schoeneweis will likely end up being a one or two inning guy when there is a string of lefties coming up with a couple righties sprinkled in. With two solid pitches he should be rather effective in the pen during one or two inning stints. He has a little bit better stuff than the average lefty reliever, but he is definitely over-extended as a starter.

Another thing to keep in mind with the bullpen this spring is that Ligtenberg is by no means a sure thing... His hip problem is a chronic problem, with no cure, and he may not be able to pitch... and if he can start the season on the team, the chance that he will pitch healthy all year is probably very slim.

2005 saves leader: Speier 25
2005 runner up: League: 8

Dustin McGowen becomes the closer and gets 33 saves in 34 chances.

In a 6- or 7-man bullpen, I'm wondering what the utility is of Schoeneweis's ability to pitch a couple of innings. How often will this realistically happen in game situations (as opposed to occasions where someone -- anyone -- just has to log some innings)? What opponents have lineups with so many LHB scattered throughout for it to be a viable strategy for Schoeneweis to pitch to more than 2 or 3 batters?

I will be amazed if his IP/G ratio is greater than 1. I'm not convinced he can be used effectively if it is.

Over at BTF, the Schoeneweis signing is not being overly well received.

No kidding. The snark is palpable.

I'd like to touch on one of the points that keeps on coming up tho - the fact that $1m/1yr is a much better price to pay for Schoenweis than the $5m/2yrs he's getting.

But... What if he isnt available for $1m? Or, as would seem increasingly likely, what if he isnt available to Toronto for $1m? What does JP do then? And I'm not being fascitious here.

The choices seem to be a) markedly overpay (which is worse than it really is, given the budget situation for the forseable future) for mediocre talent, b) hope that you can make something from the waiver wire scrap - look how well that worked 2 years ago or c) desperately pray that League/Vermiliyea are ready and Chulk/Frasor dont turn back into a pumpkin.

JP is really getting boned by the market correction this year.

Peterson is taking a physical for Arizona today

http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Render&inifile=futuretense.ini&c=Page&cid=968332188492&pubid=968163964505
COMN for the link to the above comment

The Jays need to ship Hinske and a mid level prospect to the Nationals for Tony Armas Jr and Nick Johnson. Since both of these players have had injury problems in the past they may come cheap. Also, if healthy both would solidify the team and be cornerstones for years to come.

I realize nobody here has likely ever heard of John Harris, but he's one of the finest mid-size newspapar sports columnists in the U.S. (for my near-hometown Toledo Blade) -- he's at his best for basketball, but for you Juan Gonzalez conspiracy theorists out there, here's a great take: Juan Gone is back, and it could be good.

It's easy to suggest that there were better deals to be had i.e. Chris Hammond, however, that's assuming everyone wants to play in Toronto, which we know is false. People must consider the following:
- Some players have targeted only one team that they want to play for and will sign for whatever that team will offer.
- Some players will not play in Canada
- Some players will not play for a team they don't think will be competitive, which is the popular opinion about the Blue Jays.

While the Schoenwiess deal looks strange to us, it may have been the best option for the Jays.

I have a couple of interesting points from the Blair article that I mentioned this morning; maybe that will get some discusiion going around here.

The first line of the article:

The pillaging is almost complete and any day now fans of the Toronto Blue Jays should be able to uncover their eyes and look at the transactions list without getting a sinking feeling in their stomach.

-Ricciardi says they have about 3 million left to spend before they reach the $53 million (including Hillenbrands approximate 4 million)

"We won't spend it for the sake of spending it," Ricciardi said. "But we'll look at deals where teams are trying to move contracts. It gives us something to be creative with."

Also, Ricciardi thinks they're still a little "left-handed heavy in the lineup", and he apparently spoke with Hillenbrand late last night.

Just wondering about that first line and Ricciardi's comments. I'm thinking that might not necessarily be our opening day roster here, and that another deal may go down fairly soon. It seems as though Blair may know of something else going on, something that Ricciardi is more than likely trying to keep under wraps.

Any thoughts?

Some players will not play for a team they don't think will be competitive, which is the popular opinion about the Blue Jays.

To add to what Demarco is saying, if you're looking for a chance to make the playoffs as a free agent, I think a lot of people would only see Tampa Bay as a worse possible destination. I don't believe Toronto is the 2nd worst team in baseball, but I think a lot of people see a division with the Yankees and Red Sox at the top and naturally shy away

jsoh nailed it. I'm very underwhelmed by this offseason for the Jays, but do we really know that there were better options? Do we give JP the benefit of the doubt that he already explored options A through G and they didn't work out for reasons beyond his control? It seems likely that Schoeneweis could have been signed to a 1-year or 1-year-with-vesting-option contract, and it's very arguable that he'd be better off standing pat than making the Hillenbrand trade (if it is indeed Peterson for Hillenbrand straight up and with no subsequent related maneuvers). But other than that, I can't point at specific "mistakes", not without knowing the inside information about who was discussed and who was available and what the prices were.

I'd like to touch on one of the points that keeps on coming up tho - the fact that $1m/1yr is a much better price to pay for Schoenweis than the $5m/2yrs he's getting.

But... What if he isnt available for $1m? Or, as would seem increasingly likely, what if he isnt available to Toronto for $1m? What does JP do then? And I'm not being fascitious here.

Then don't sign him. The problem with JP's approach a couple of years ago wasn't the approach but with the results. JP isn't very good at evaluating bullpen talent. The thing that JP was going to avoid, that Ash couldn't, is overpaying for mid-level talent. And that's precisely what he's done the past two offseasons. He's spent a lot of money on the 'pen with poor results. This either says the talent he's getting is bad, or the way it's being used is bad.

This leads to another problem- that Gibbons was hired without a serious search for a better candidate. Jays management, whne they hired JP, did so because they did an exhaustive search, instead of giving the job to Dave Stewart. JP had a plan for the team, and from the sounds of it, blew them away in the interview. Why not go through the same process loking for a manager?

Frustrating offseason. They really haven't brought in anyone you can expect to exceed their '04 performance other than Koch. They gave up a prospect for John McDonald. And Hillenbrand. Would've rather seen them try and get a hitting prospect, someone who could develop, for Peterson, even if they had to add another prospect to the deal.

Well we do know that options Clement, Carlos Lee and Steve Kline all failed, as well as operation 'Dump Hinske'.

With 12 pitchers it's apparent that JP believes that the infielders need to be very versatile. Thus you have Hinske and Hillenbrand capable of playing 1B and 3B, Menechino the entire IF, Macdonald 2B and SS. Any injury to an infielder would result in Cat coming in to play DH and likely odd-man-out Gross being called up. Unless the team is particularly healthy this year, you'd think that Gross would get a reasonable amount of AB's.

Then don't sign him. The problem with JP's approach a couple of years ago wasn't the approach but with the results.

Exactly. It blows my mind that the Jays are dumping a young bullpen prospect who could theoretically provide them with dirt cheap innings out of the pen this year or next, in exchange for a guy who is going to be gone when the team wins. Why JP is trading future cheap performance for the mediocrity of today is beyond me. For a team that's going to need cheap performance in order to compete within it's division to trade for a guy won't provide it, and isn't particularly underpriced or anything, it's just brutal management.

Maybe the Jays have decided that Adam Peterson isn't a prospect, I don't know. I'm a little puzzled as to how Terry Adams got to trot out of the bullpen for three months and get his ass kicked, and Peterson gets a quick look see, and a kick in the pants.

For the record Adam Peterson will be 26 in May. He's not that young, so why not trade him for a proven Major League position player.

It blows my mind that the Jays are dumping a young bullpen prospect who could theoretically provide them with dirt cheap innings out of the pen this year or next

Peterson is still at least a year away from the majors considering that he has had no success about double A. Thus even if he does make the Jays roster in 2006, he will be 27 years old. Why do people think that a double A reliever that might make the majors by the age of 27 is such a good prospect? I think getting Hillenbrand for him is pretty much a steal.

""For the record Adam Peterson will be 26 in May. He's not that young, so why not trade him for a proven Major League position player.""

That's a good point. I had forgotten his age. This also may explain why the rushed him to the majors jast year.

no success about double A

no success above double A

In terms of a market correction-- All it takes is one GM with a different agenda and the rest to follow suit. We had Arizona with new ownership, a Washington team looking to sell tickets, and a Mets team with a new cable station getting ready to start up. I can't blame them for going for the quick fix if it gets them more tickets and cable subscribers.

A little anecdote: I heard Cashman on Mike and the Mad Dog on WFAN yesterday. They started clobbering him about the Jaret Wright signing. He said that he was very surprised about the money that Wright ended up getting based on what he thought he'd get when they started negotiating. He mentioned that he was one of 8 pitchers that the Yanks were targetting, and he noted that Wright signed before they got Pavano and RJ. (In other words, they needed pitching and weren't sure what would play out, so they were willing to overpay to get someone.) He said the pitching market had been set earlier by a few teams, notably the Mets with Benson.

M&MD asked, Shouldn't you have just picked up Lieber's option then? Cashman replied, Yeah. I guess we should have in retrospect. We mis-evaluated the market for pitching in this case.

I couldn't believe what I was hearing.

Anyway, the point is that everyone has to react to changes in the market. The Yankees did by overpaying for talent. We did by overpaying for talent that we could afford. If everyone is spending more money, then it just becomes more expensive to run a competitive baseball franchise or... it doesn't and you deal with the consequences and try to win in other ways.

I'm really disappointed that the ownership didn't give JP more money and flexibility to start with. I don't think that it's realistic anymore to think we can win in this division with a $50-$55 million payroll. If I felt confident that the money would be rolled over to next year as someone else mentioned, then I'd be fine with it. But I see Rogers spending money on all of the peripheral things and I feel like he is gonna make a lot of money. I thought it was a good time to put some additional money in and give the fans something to be enthusiastic about.

A reliever that might make the majors by the age of 27 is such a good prospect? I think getting Hillenbrand for him is pretty much a steal.

Except that it means they're paying Hillenbrand- a horrid defender at 3B and a mediocre hitter at 1B. I'd be willing to bet they could get Floyd for Hillenbrand's salary, and he's a far superior hitter. The fact that JP wants Hillenbrand in the lineup is a bad sign. I don't know what it would take talent-wise to get Floyd, but consider- Hillenbrand plus SS equals Floyd. I'd take Floyd- he's at least got a shot at a .400/.600 season, which Hillenbrand will never sniff.

as well as operation 'Dump Hinske'.

I, for one, am hoping that operation just hasn't reached the light of day yet. Here's my wish list for the next set of moves:

- Trade Hinske to Detroit for prospects
- Make Hillenbrand the everyday 1B
- Take the savings from Hinske, plus the leftover $3 mil, and overpay for Magglio O.

I know it's a pipe dream, but stranger things have happened.

Grand Funk out.

http://wfan.com/chrismikeaudio/
My first time trying this, but COMN for a link to the audio of Mike and the Mad Dog talking to RJ, Beltran, and Cashman. The Cashman interview was particularly interesting, I thought.

Cliff Floyd hasn't been healthy since he was called up by the Montreal Expos in the early 90's.

Cliff Floyd hasn't been healthy since he was called up by the Montreal Expos in the early 90's.

Didn't he ask to be traded (to the Cubbies) because his knees couldn't handle artificial turf?
Even with Fieldturf, methinks he'd break down playing in the dome faster than a Lada.

Grand Funk out.

Cliff Floyd hasn't been healthy since he was called up by the Montreal Expos in the early 90's.

Ummmm.....what?

1998- 153 games, 635 PA .337/.481
2001- 149 games, 609 PA .390/.578
2002- 146 games, 596 PA .388/.533

Even with the Mets, he's had over 400 PA/season. Also has decent speed on the bases despite all the leg problems.

He's been playing the field with the Mets. Put him at DH, you cut down his chance of injury. Career .282/.362/.493. When he's hurt, you play Gross. Floyd at least can be great- with Hillenbrand, you know he won't be. If you're set with frontline offensive talent, you can pay for known mediocrity/borderline suckitude (Shea needs to hit .300+ to be an asset). The Jays aren't. They need to be taking chances on guys with upside.

Is anyone else going CRAZY waiting for an official announcement on Hillenbrand?

They need to be taking chances on guys with upside.

I don't understand how you could think Cliff Floyd has upside.
He has the body of an 80 year old.
That isn't upside in my books.

Grand Funk out.

Cliff Floyd's best years are behind him, i.e. Florida. He's almost 33 and has even mentioned a desire to retire because of the chronic pain in his knees. He'd be a waste of money.

I don't understand how you could think Cliff Floyd has upside.

His legs break down when he plays the field too much. Still is a good hitter, though a bit streaky. OPS+: 110, 132, 143, 150. Career 122. Hillenbrand: 106, 95, 109, 77. Career 98.

I'd rather have Floyd for 400+ PA (hasn't had less since '99) and Gross for the others than Hillenbrand for 600. Take a chance that as DH, Floyd stays healthy for 150 games and hits better in that role w/out the nagging injuries. .380/.520 is doable.

I think people get a little confused on the whole meaning of "upside" and throw it around a lot. Upside is really another way of saying potential that a player has yet to reach. It basically is reserved for A) minor leaguers who haven't proven themselves in the majors but have great stats or tools B) young major leaguers with proven minor league stats and tools. Etc...
Veteran major leaguers who have a proven track record don't really have "upside."

Take a chance that as DH, Floyd stays healthy for 150 games

Those are EXACTLY the chances this team CAN'T be taking.
I'd rather have a healthy, steady, predictable Hillenbrand than the maybe that Cliff Floyd or his ilk present.
We're not contending, so Floyd would be a complete waste of space and payroll.

Grand Funk out.

We're not contending, so Floyd would be a complete waste of space and payroll.

What's Hillenbrand? Doesn't get on base. Hits for OK power. But Cliff Floyd was better last year, and that was in Shea's best season and Cliff's worst since 1996. Floyd's a better hitter, and a DH's job is to hit. Hillenbrand's "good" year was also helped by his park- he hit .318/.397 on the road.

Marc- what I mean is that Floyd is undervalued right now by the Mets and his value might increase with a move to the AL. Floyd has a good eye still. He played through injuries last year when the Mets were in "contention". His salary isn't that high, and the Mets may be willing to eat some of it to move him.

He has the body of an 80 year old.

Where does he keep it? As long as he doesn't bring it on road trips there shouldn't be any problem.

"Then don't sign him."

I have to disagree with this point. It's not like we have a bullpen lefty in the minors - OK, Chacin is a lefty but I think the Jays think his role is a SP.

First off, I am not a fan of the Scott S deal - but it addresses a glaring lack in the bullpen since the Jays let Trevor Miller slip out of our hands. The Jays had a weakness and JP addressed it.

Did he overpay? Maybe, but maybe not. A couple of similar FA signings probably set the market - Kline went 2yrs/ $5.5M, Rheal Cormier went 2yrs/ 5.25M and Wilson Alvarez went 2yrs/$4M. Yes, Chris Hammond went cheap, but he had some shoulder problems last year with the A's - maybe JP has a little inside knowledge there.

The only issue I have is the second year, which would have been nice as a team option or a vesting clause based on performance. But, then again the second year is why SS signed.

"The thing that JP was going to avoid, that Ash couldn't, is overpaying for mid-level talent."

It's not overpaying if the market changes - see Benson, Lowe, Perez, Clement, Leiber, Milton, Ortiz, and Wright. All pitchers that I would consider as mid-level talent. Heck, injured pitchers like Miller and Millwood got guaranteed $.

The key is that if you overpay, you don't burden the team long term (3 plus years) like (to varying degrees) the Mondesi deal, the Alex Gonzalez deal, and the Carlos Delgado deal (even though he produced enough to justify the $).

The market is shifting, and JP has to compensate and shift with the market. As was mentioned above Cashman was also surprised by the market, as I'm guessing were other GMs who didn't play a part in setting the market (ahem...Omar Minaya).

The key is that if you overpay, you don't burden the team long term

This year, the Jays will have a few "bad" contracts= Hinske, Lightenberg, arguably Batista and SS. If these contracts are preventing them from going after a higher-calibur player, then that's bad IMO. I think by 2006, Koskie's deal will look bad as well. It isn't that any one contract is killing/will kill the team, but that all these low risk-low potential deals are killing them. Last season, it was Adams, Lightenberg, Batista, Spier and Hentgen. None of them panned out.

There's no point to beating the horse anymore...I hope SS pitches up to the contract, that Hillenbrand exceeds last year, that Koch becomes a force again, that Cat proves to be worth the extension. I just don't think it's very likely. I've lost faith in JP's ability to evaluate major league talent, which is kind his job, and one he's been bad at so far.

But other than that, I can't point at specific "mistakes", not without knowing the inside information about who was discussed and who was available and what the prices were.

I'm okay with that approach as long as we do it for all GMs, not just JP. And I've never seen anyone take such an approach for looking at, say, Cam Bonifay's moves.

Does anybody know if we gave up draft picks to sign SS or Koch?

Also, lefty relievers are always in demand at the trade deadline. If the signing doesn't work out, JP could always flip him for a prospect or two to some contender desperate for a LOOGY. In the current market, he isn't so overpaid that a contender wouldn't be willing to trade for him.

I'm not a big fan of the moves this winter, but agree with a few others here that the market really was difficult for a team on a tight budget. If JP knew back in October what he knows now (namely that the market would go nuts) he probably would've pounced on a couple of players with higher offers that we'd have thought were nuts at the time.

Ah well. In the end I was hoping we'd see lots of playing time for rookies so the Jays can figure out who is good for '06/'07. We'll get a bit of that but will need injuries to force the issue (ie: open an outfield slot for Gross).

It isn't that any one contract is killing/will kill the team, but that all these low risk-low potential deals are killing them. Last season, it was Adams, Lightenberg, Batista, Spier and Hentgen. None of them panned out.

How exactly are they killing them? Obviously these guys didn't get the job done, but at the same time their contracts weren't the reason. You can say the money could be spent elsewhere, but than you have to ask can it really? As has been demonstrated this offseason, JP has had a hard time spending the money he has.

I'm not thrilled with any of the aquisitions so far this off-season, but at the same time you still have to put out a team this year. JP has addressed some needs, unfortunately he has done this by overpaying, but atleat he has filled some holes without sacrificing the long term plan. I'm not happy, but it could be worse.

I think people get a little confused on the whole meaning of "upside" and throw it around a lot. Upside is...

Au contraire... "upside" can mean a different things in different contexts. When dp refers to Floyd having upside, I understand him to mean than Floyd could be a very valuable offensive player. Whereas Hillenbrand is more likely to provide bulk at-bats, but is highly unlikely to perform at a star level.

Dictionary.com agrees with dp.

Upside: 2. An advantageous aspect.

Does anybody know if we gave up draft picks to sign SS or Koch?
I do believe both were non-tendered and therefore we did not.
Baseball America doesn't list either in their compensation details
http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/columnists/askba.html

How exactly are they killing them?

I'm with BCMike here. The notion of a 2yr/$5m contract 'killing' the team is a little absurd.

There's overpaying in the sense of "pay more than the sabrmetrically approved $/marginal win", and then there's overpaying in the sense of "giving out Pedro/Varitek style contracts".

JP may be overpaying SS/Lighterfluid/Koskie relative to what they'll contribute, but none of those deals are crippling in the way that Delgado's contract was crippling.

With the exception of the Halladay/Wells core, and the Hinske contract, JP hasnt tied his hands with any large dollar value/long length contracts that marked the Ash years.

Yes. That means that you're gonna lose out on getting someone like Beltran. But at our payroll level, that was never an option anyways.

I'm okay with that approach as long as we do it for all GMs, not just JP. And I've never seen anyone take such an approach for looking at, say, Cam Bonifay's moves.

Absolutely. This is where it comes back to my question, "Do we give JP the benefit of the doubt?". There is doubt about the moves JP has made this offseason (and doubt about moves that we speculate he could have made but did not), just as there is doubt about moves Cam Bonifay has made. But for me, Bonifay has a history of poor moves that makes me assume he'll simply continue to make bad moves. J.P. has a history of sensible moves in my book (though it seems a disproportionate number have not worked out). At this point, he continues to get the benefit of the doubt from me. Over time, this could change.

Dictionary.com agrees with dp.

Well, if dictionary.com says so, it must be true.

Hillenbrand is definitely a "What you see is what you get" player, whereas, say, Crozier or Gabe Gross have yet to establish that they are anything, be it mediocre or good. One thing we do know about the latter players: they're cheap, and they, or players like them, are in every organisation and can be acquired for nothing. This, more than anything else, is the primary lesson I took from "Beane's book." It's easy to come up with a Matt Stairs, or a John Jaha, or a Geronimo Berroa, or a Chad Bradford, if you only know where to look. I believe that, I really do; it's the part of the Moneyball dogma I believe the most, in fact. Either J.P. and Keith Law don't know where to look anymore -- doubtful -- or ... well, I don't really know, because I don't know what's going on in the front office.

But this Hillenbrand acquisition is a bad one, and goes against the revolutionary doctrine that Beane and DePodesta and Ricciardi introduced in Oakland. To suggest otherwise is simply wrong.

Jonny- Thanks for understanding me. Sometimes I'm not sure if I make sense to anyone but myself here...

How exactly are they killing them? Obviously these guys didn't get the job done, but at the same time their contracts weren't the reason. You can say the money could be spent elsewhere, but than you have to ask can it really?

Yes. Rather than Koskie and Hillenbrand, the Jays could've offered Delgado a decent contract. In fairness, if JP knew the market was going to be this crazy, he probably would've made a more appropriate offer- Carlos at $12 million looks like a bargain right now. The logic of letting Carlos go was that it would give them money to spend wisely, not just pay mid-level talent in hopes it'll remain at that level. The promise was that they'd get better after Delgado left. If JP was so concerned about being able to lure FA to Toronto, then he should've made at least a 3 year/$30 million offer to the one guy who said he wanted to be here. And if you don't like Delgado, go for Drew. Or Beltre. Or pocket the money if you don't think it can get you much. But Koskie, SS, Hillenbrand, if he signs beyond '05, these are taking cash away from front-line talent.

I guess I'm just pissy because a GM I'm trying to like went out of his way to get Shea Hillenbrand, a guy going to arbitration after a career year. Buy high, sell low.

Yeah, Koch and Schoeneweis were not offered arbitration (and Koch was released by Florida) by their former clubs so they do not require compensation.

Also, Bob File has signed a minor league contract with St. Louis, including an invite to spring training.

I should add that, like Jonny G., I can give the front office the benefit of the doubt, as long as they don't keep making these odd moves. (And I'm sure J.P. and Keith Law are relieved to hear that I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt! Sleep easy, fellas. JG's got your back. For now.)

Just listened to the Cashman interview. Very interesting. He's a tough one to evaluate because so many moves made by the organization are done over his head. The Yankees have had a very dubious off-season. Is he to blame? How much?

By all accounts he's an intelligent, well thought of individual. It would be nice to see him in another organization, where his abilities could be observed in isolation. Of course, he'd have to get used to life without all that funny money.

I guess I'm just pissy because a GM I'm trying to like went out of his way to get Shea Hillenbrand, a guy going to arbitration after a career year. Buy high, sell low.

You're singing my song dp.

It seems to me that in response to complaints last year about how the FA signings hadn't worked out, the response was "It was a good move based on the information available at the time." That was the response that sticks out in my mind to Hentgen, Ligtenberg and even Adams.

How is it that now that JP is making moves that appear to be unwise on their face, he deserves the benefit of the doubt? I guess I differ in that I don't think that there's any reason to spend if there isn't a smart move available, but as has been pointed out, SS and Koskie have the potential to be eating up a pretty healthy chunk of the Jays budget next year, without much return. It really seems that the team is drifting at this point, without much of a plan. If the plan is to let the youth develop and move up, that's fine, but the Jays could now be in a situation next year where they've got Hinske and Koskie locked up, Adams at short with nowhere to play a guy like Hill or (less likely) Hattig. If you think that the Jays are going to need to have a young group bloom together in order to have success-and I do, given the financial constraints that the team is under-it makes no sense to lock up mediocrities, or in the case of Hillenbrand, add another one to the pile.

This time last year, there appeared to be a discernable plan in effect. I'm not so sure that there is now. I'm definitely not sure from what pool of goodwill or faith that JP draws with contracts for guys like SS. I may be alone in this, but I'd be far less critical of this offseason if JP hadn't spent on guys like this, and handed out some NRI's to guys, and moved forward on that basis.

It isn't that any one contract is killing/will kill the team, but that all these low risk-low potential deals are killing them. Last season, it was Adams, Lightenberg, Batista, Spier and Hentgen. None of them panned out.

Has there been some misconception about how the Jays were/ are going to get into contention? It was the draft was it not? Some of you guys seem to be be of the belief that JP should just be able to conjure up some A prospects for nothing. Maybe some guy with a years major league experience who is going to be an all star. Yeah, that should be easy - probably no one else will notice their potential - you can get him for next to nothing.

Other than the Mets stupidity of last summer (Huber/ Kazmir) it doesn't happen that way - so the Jays will have to get the prospects themselves thru the draft.

The moves you crticised have been pretty decent IMHO. Adams cost nothing and turned into Hatttig - strengthening the farm system. Lightenberg is always held aginst JP as evidence of his poor bullpen evaluation skills. Well, HE GOT HURT, I guess JP is not as adept at forcasting arthritic hip conditions as you would like. Batista is an unbelievable bargain in today's market who has good stuff - exactly the kind of guy JP is supposed to go after. He is not an all star. Ted Lily is - how does that trade look? Speier was hurt but turned it around in the second half and looks to be an above average pitcher who could close - how do you criticise that? Hentgen cost nothing to get and the Jays didn't even have to pay his whole salary. How does that "kill" the team?

Someone said yesterday that they wanted to see the Fighting Jays. I think this year you might. If I can see one consistent thing about JP it is that he values "character" and guys that play hard. You can see it in the draft (Adams, Hill, Bush, Thigpen, Cannon, Roberts) and he seems to have a whole team of decent scrappy players. Every player either goes deep into at bats or at least plays hard every game. No Jose Cruz's on this team.

If that is the way you want your team to play (and I think you do) then what better place to bring up your prosects to.

Maybe it is because I am an Oilers fan, but I am used to being patient. If you look closely you will see that the teams that are the models for the Jays (Minni, A's, Indians, Florida) sucked for a bunch of years before their GM's became brillant. What makes you think the Jays should be any different?

If you look closely you will see that the teams that are the models for the Jays (Minni, A's, Indians, Florida) sucked for a bunch of years before their GM's became brillant. What makes you think the Jays should be any different?

I can't speak for the Indians, but it seems to me that none of the other three had the seeming compulsion of the Blue Jays to keep the budget at a certain level, regardless of whether they sucked or not. Payroll fluctuated with the success of the team to a certain degree. It's inexplicable why the Jays feel the need to spend $50 million on a team that likely won't be very good. Pour the resources into other other parts of the organization. Heck, if you're determined to invest the money, $10 million extra put into the Skydome will likely pay dividends long after the returns from Hillenbrand and SS have resulted in pushing the team from 75 to 78 wins, or something along those lines.

The logic of letting Carlos go was that it would give them money to spend wisely, not just pay mid-level talent in hopes it'll remain at that level. The promise was that they'd get better after Delgado left.

This is true. But let's say that JP's goals had worked out and he acquired Koskie, Clement, Kline and Carlos Lee. I'm willing to bet we would be a pretty happy bunch. Unfortunately things did not work out and we are stuck with the plan B's and C's.

Or pocket the money if you don't think it can get you much. But Koskie, SS, Hillenbrand, if he signs beyond '05, these are taking cash away from front-line talent.

Who is the front-line talent that wants to sign with a crappy team in the toughest division in baseball? Also I don't see how pocketing the money is a better option. The Jays needed a couple of bats and some bullpen help, I would rather have these spots filled with decent players than nobody at all. Of course I would prefer someone other than Hillenbrand.

If I can see one consistent thing about JP it is that he values "character" and guys that play hard.

I'd rather see guys play well. That's just me. McDonald may be scrappy and a gamer, but he's a .220 "hitter" that the Jays gave up a prospect for. Koskie maybe a great guy but if his performance falls off a little, he isn't worth half what they're paying him. As for the character issue, see the discussion of Hillenbrand's comments toward Theo in yesterday's roundup. Cruz Jr's problem wasn't his attitude, it was his performance.

It isn't the sucking, it's the way of sucking- I'm discouraged by JP's offfensive philosophy, the types of hitters he's valued, the ones he's gotten rid of.

In terms of a market correction-- All it takes is one GM with a different agenda and the rest to follow suit

I disagree that one 'bad' signing causes a domino effect. For the most part every team has a budget that they know and they're going to use most, if not all of that budget (and in some cases more). Maybe there's some shifting of that money from one place to another (like starting pitching), but I think the overall money spent would be the same regardless of one 'bad' signing.

Given the past 2 offseasons a lot of players look overpriced, but I suspect that if you went team by team and looked at how much money they had to spend and who was available the contracts that were signed aren't as surprising as they seem at first glance.

All of the low payroll teams have pretty much stopped lowering payroll, many teams are increasing payroll for various reason, baseball's revenues increase each year, new revenues are coming in, and many pre 2001 contracts have expired. Add it all up and it shouldn't be the surprise that players are making more money now.

Derek Lowe signing with the Dodgers was a criticized move in Sabr-circles, but they'll probably be at least a $90 million payroll team
for a long time. After this season they only have 3 players under contract IIRC, Perez, Lowe and Drew. That leaves them with about $65 million to fill out the rest of the team. That's a lot of money to have and they're going to use it somehow.

At least Detroit and Baltimore are looking to spend more, and the Mets and Marlins apparently have more to spend, and there's not too many players available that would command that kind of money. Even the Jays have about $3 million left to work with. Given that I suscept that what we're seeing is not a short term thing. I think most of these contracts will end up being at least market value. Where teams will goof up is in giving contracts longer than they should, but even that has slowed down from the pre-2001 era.

In fairness, if JP knew the market was going to be this crazy, he probably would've made a more appropriate offer- Carlos at $12 million looks like a bargain right now.

The market may have changed, but the Jays budget has remained the same. If the Jays didn't think Delgado was worth $8-10 million in their budget what happens in the market does wouldn't change that.

Unless of course you mean that Delgado at $12 million and 3 minimum salary players would make the Jays better than having Koskie, Schoeneweis, Koch, and Hillenbrand. (Someone want to run VORP on this?). Of course that also assumes that Delgado would have accepted $12 million before 12/20 which I don't think would have been a sure thing.

What opponents have lineups with so many LHB scattered throughout for it to be a viable strategy for Schoeneweis to pitch to more than 2 or 3 batters?

Toronto. Oh wait.....

It's probably been mentioned before, but how much will Shea Hillenbrand get in arbitration -- assuming it goes that far?

Isn't the deadline sometime soon?

My benefit of the doubt is running out, for what that is worth. I'm doing my best here. But the bullpen acquisitions have been terrible, the first manager didn't work out well, we just finished last in the division, I wasn't happy with the second managerial process, and damnit, this sandwich still has the crust on it!

In all seriousness, I have no problem giving the benefit of the doubt to someone with a track record. I'm doing my best to give JP the benefit of the doubt and rationalize alot of questionable moves. I'm not seeing the big picture as well as I used to any more.

Isn't the deadline sometime soon?

Filing for arbitration takes place from January 5th through the 15th. Salary figures are exchanged on January 18th. Hearings take place from February 1st to the 21st.

A couple of posts have referred to signing a front line player instead of a number of mid level talent players, however, that means front line $.

And, given the Jays budget of $50-$55M (this year and for at least the next few years) and given that Doc is signed for the next 3 years at $10M+, I just don't see JP signing a front line (position) player. Doc is the front line player. Some of may have forgotten that due to his injuries last year, but he's a Cy Young candidate when healthy.

If JP were to also sign (for example) Magglio Ordonez, the contract is gonna run $8M+ for multiple years. I don't think that JP is willing to use 33% (or more) of his budget on just 2 players. Magglio is a bad example coming off an injury, but you get the drift.

When I look at the offseason, and see that JP had Clement targeted, I wonder, why?

It seems to me that a GM of a small market team has to find players that aren't being targeted. Now, this is obviously hindsight, but does Clement sound like that type of player?

Clement, and even Lee are players that are going to be targeted by a lot of teams. Now, with Lee at least there's a reasonable chance you can outbid, in terms of prospects. However, there's a very minimal chance that they were going to outbid anyone for Clement.

Now, I have no idea what's going on behind the scenes. But, if JP didn't inquire about one of Calvin Pickering, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Howard, Dan Johnson, Casey Kotchman or think about just letting Crozier start, I'd be disapointed.

A quick question for those whose memories are better than mine. Does anyone recall the RP that JP targeted last year that rebuffed the Jays for a lower value contract with another team?

We know this year that Kline turned down the Jays. We also lost out on the Carlos Lee deal through no particular fault of JP - he was simply outbid in terms of compensation. Can you think of any others where the Jays lost out?

It would be interesting to see how those players perform in the year that they rejected the Jays. No use complaining about the lost opportunities, but it would be interesting to look back and see what might have been. You know what they say about hindsight.

JP thought he had Tim Worrell signed last year to be the Jays closer.

I disagree that one 'bad' signing causes a domino effect. For the most part every team has a budget that they know and they're going to use most, if not all of that budget (and in some cases more). Maybe there's some shifting of that money from one place to another (like starting pitching), but I think the overall money spent would be the same regardless of one 'bad' signing.

I didn't say one bad signing, Pistol. I actually specifically avoided saying that. I did say one GM with a different agenda. And to me, this year it was Minaya. Listen to the Cashman interview and he says specifically and others have indicated that the market changed after Benson signed. This was a GM with a huge chunk of change looking for pitching and offense, willing to "overpay" to get it. To me and Cashman, the Benson signing led to Wright getting more money. The market for free agent pitchers completely changed and Beane decided he should move his guys now while he could get something for them.

Without going into a huge essay, I think the agents realized that they had a new huge bidder for Beltran and Pedro Martinez. And I do think that changed the market dramatically across the board. I think similar things happened with the Nationals signings of midmarket and lower tier players. Of course, if the owners didn't have the money from increased revenues, salaries probably wouldn't go up. But they did and they do. And they chose to spend it where they would get the most bang for their buck. We did too, with Koskie, the turf, and the scoreboard. :)

If Delegado signs with the Rangers I can see Adrian Gonzalves becoming available for a prospect of equal value.

It seems to me that a GM of a small market team has to find players that aren't being targeted. Now, this is obviously hindsight, but does Clement sound like that type of player?

To some degree he was. Clement wasn't in high demand until a few other starters had signed.

If the Jays are the only team targeting a player there's a good chance the player isn't that good. It's one thing to plug a small hole or two with an untargeted player, but you're not going to win with a team of those. Ultimately you need players that everyone wants.

Unless of course you mean that Delgado at $12 million and 3 minimum salary players would make the Jays better than having Koskie, Schoeneweis, Koch, and Hillenbrand. (Someone want to run VORP on this?).

Just eyeballing a 'Pistol Projection' based on past results I came up with a 60 VORP for Delgado in 2005 and a 65 VORP for Koskie, Hillenbrand, Schoeneweis, and Koch (which I had at 45, 10, 5, and 5 respectively).

The single most important thing JP has going right now is that pick in June. If it means holding that 3MM to put towards a signing bonus then by all means do it, because they need an impact player at that spot.

Just eyeballing a 'Pistol Projection' based on past results I came up with a 60 VORP for Delgado in 2005 and a 65 VORP for Koskie, Hillenbrand, Schoeneweis, and Koch (which I had at 45, 10, 5, and 5 respectively).

Yeah, but even if they're equal, the delta on one player (Delgado) will be a lot higher than the delta on four players will be.

No matter what you think about Hillenbrand -- kind of the anti-Youkilis, a demon to be reviled -- it is simply no solution to start Eric Crozier this season.

Crozier has a long swing and was easily overmatched by big league pitching, especially up in the strike zone. It would be one thing if he were older when making his debut than Vernon Wells when V-Dub debuted, but it's quite another that he's actually older than Vernon Wells. He went 5-for-33, and his four extra-base hits came against the not-exactly-Cy-worthy quartet of Erasmo Ramirez, Chan Ho Park, Doug Waechter and Dewon Brazelton.

Unfortunately, I suspect that we all realize the fact that the Jays lineup needs no more and no less than a Carlos Delgado at 1B/DH to become an interesting offence. Put differently, the Jays need to add a 9.5, or at least a 9, to the middle of their order. Hillenbrand is a 6 -- like Magpie so aptly demonstrated, he takes a different path but gets to the same destination as Mark Bellhorn. Alas, parsimony trumped between-the-lines need. But it's not like Hillenbrand is, say, a 2.

Crozier was a rock-solid 1 last September, when he knew he had an opportunity to impress. Please don't reply with MLE's -- my own observation confirmed that it was not a hard-luck 5 for 33 stint in the bigs.

Besides, there's nothing stopping us from giving Crozier another look in mid-season if he tears up AAA.

I'm going to have to agree with Mike D on this one. Anyone who thinks that Crozier should start the season as the regular 1B was clearly not paying attention last year. He was vastly overmatched and looked completely lost out there.

That's not to say he'll never be useful. He's just not useful now.

I agree with Jim about that #6 pick in June being crucial.

That #6 slot hasn't panned out too well in the recent past. I looked at all the #6 overall picks since 1990 - it ain't pretty!

Basically, the 6-picks through 2001 can be split into 3 categories:

Category A - Derek Jeter
Category B - Rocco Baldelli
Category C - everybody else, a whole pile of guys (mostly pitchers)
who never amounted to anything (Seth Greisinger is the
best). The only 2 position players were Marc Newfield
in 1990 and McKay Christenson in 1994.

Zack Greinke in 2002 has a good shot at improving the #6 profile, and it's too early to tell about the 2003 and 2004 guys.

Frank (and whoever else), check out:

What Can We Expect From a 6th Overall Draft Pick?

You're right. It's not all that pretty. But Barry Bonds was a 6th overall pick!

In any competitive enterprise, where several potential bidders are targetting the same items for purchase, over bidding is the norm and not the exception. There is a finite supply of talented players, and as a result of the demand from even a few heavy walleted teams, their salaries will be high. That's a given.

The problem this season was the higher bid levels for mid and lower level players, that apparently surprised even the Yankees. As a result, what we would consider over payment based on last winter's contracts, is now ancient history. The market has seen a fundamental sea change. Of course, we thought that the correction of last winter has established a new and more sane market. That optimism turned to be a mirage. Salaries continued their longer term rise based on higher team revnues.

One problem for the Blue Jays was maintaining the previously announced $50 - $55 million payroll level, rather than increasing it to reflect the new market realities. Individual salary hikes require an increase in the aggregate total payroll to maintain the same relative payroll level.

Another problem is the lack of desire, on the part of more heavily targeted players, to sign with the second division teams. Toronto is seen in the same group as Tampa Bay, Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Milwaukee, Colorado, and Washington. Note that the Reds had to heavily overpay Eric Milton to land his league average at best pitching. That is now the mythical "market".

We have to consider what options JP had for player moves, in the form of trades and signings, that could have been considered instead of what resulted. Instead of Koskie, Shea Hillenbrand, Scott Schoewenweis, and Billy Koch, for example, what were the other choices available. It appears that most of Matt Clement, Carlos Lee, Steve Kline and others went up in the proverbial smoke.

Note that Steve Kline turned down more money from Toronto to become an Oriole. His offer was transferred to Scott S. We can never be certain whether Kenny Williams actually believed he was really doing better with the Brewers offer for Carlos Lee. Bad talent evaluation can hurt Toronto from the other end too, it seems. Getting offered more and accepting less is a Kenny Williams trademark.

In summary, we have to look at what could be done instead of what JP actually was able to do. It's easy to say that Carlos Delgado should have signed for X. We don't know if X was enough. Perhaps he really did want to get a clone of his existing contract, and it appears that he just might get close to that. It's hard to say, but paying top dollar for Carlos decline phase would be a potentially crippling albotross too.

I doubt if "pocketing the money" is a realistic option in a corporate structure. In most companies that I know, a budget is "use it or lose it". Every year at fiscal year end, there is massive purchasing spree to avoid a budget cut for the next year. Most understand that it's a "use or lose" proposition. I suspect that JP is in that position too. Internal company politics can never be overlooked.

The question then, is what would you have realistically done differently from JP?

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/team-bullpens/
With all this discussion about SS and the bullpen, I'm suprised no one has linked to the THT articles on Team Bullpens. COMN.

Yep, the Jays bullpen was as bad as it appeared last year. Hopefully, a full year of League, SS and Koch can help. It definitely can't hurt.

The question then, is what would you have realistically done differently from JP?

Rather than the "know what your getting" Hillenbrand, I would have been willing to deal more(in terms of prospects) for a younger power hitter to play 1b/lf/dh. Of course I'm not sure exactly what's available or the price.

ESPN.com is reporting the Hillenbrand trade in their transactions section as a done deal (for Peterson). No other site/media outlet seems to be though...

http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/news_story.asp?id=110984
TSN's reporting it as well. COMN.

Well, as Ted Dibiase used to say 'everybody has a price'.

Teams don't hand away young power hitters. I imagine any trade for one of those would have started with at least David Bush and a top 5 Blue Jay prospect.

ESPN.com is reporting the Hillenbrand trade in their transactions section as a done deal (for Peterson).

Unfortunately it's Adam Peterson, not Todd Peterson.

JP is supposed to be on the Fan590 at 5:30 eastern.

The announcment is on the Jays website along w/ SF's latest column about the corner infield.

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20050112&content_id=930335&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp

http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/tor/news/tor_news.jsp?ymd=20050112&content_id=930135&vkey=news_tor&fext=.jsp

Mike D. and Mike M. (talk about your unholy alliances!), I am not suggesting that Crozier is great shakes any more than I am suggesting that Graham Koonce (picked up, ironically, and yes, that's the proper usage, by the Pirates) is great shakes. When the D-Rays signed Tino Martinez, Baseball Prospectus was in its glory. The thinking was that if everything went right, if Tino somehow hit 44 home runs again -- had another career year, in other words -- then the D-Rays might, MIGHT, win 67 games. So if Shea bashes 28 home runs, slugs .550, bats .350, the Jays win, what, 78 games? 79?

ESPN says Bob File signed in St Louis

So if Shea bashes 28 home runs, slugs .550, bats .350, the Jays win, what, 78 games? 79?

Great point Gits, I agree completely
Although my oppion has changed somewhat, because maybe 5 more wins from SS, and H-Brand means more fans, more revenue therefore more payroll for next year...

That said, should the Jays have traded Batista or Lilly while the market was inflated?

There's now a Hillenbrand thread up and running.

If JP comes on the fan, could someone take notes? :)

I was planning to listen online, but my mother is about to call and that will probably take half an hour. I'd really like to hear what he has to say about this one. I do hope he doesn't sounds as depressed as he seemed to be, in recent interviews.

Pistol, anyone that can use a reference from the 'Million Dollar Man' Ted DiBiase gets an A+ from me :)

That man just knew how to bore under people's skin; it was classic.

Andrew K: Check out the Shea thread. Nothing too great, it was only a few minutes anyway.

Well that was a lame interview...

Notes:

Hinske will play first Hillenbrand will DH, Hinske will also go in for Koskie

Would rather get the most out of Hinske by having him in the field rather than a weak hitting DH

Offered 7.5 to Clement

Initially targeted Koskie and Clement

Talked about lack of hockey and the Mets targetting latin players.

Your notes:

-He's playing hinske at 1b not Dh because of (trade?) value
-He whined about not being able to sign Beltran or Delgado
-some question about moremedia, more fans..Jp says fans are getting excited because of the jays young prospects, not the lock-out
-Praising Minya...'glad they can only sign 25 guys"
(more subtle whining about his payroll)
-Dismissed the 'latin clubhouse chemistry' arguement

on the whole a pretty disapointing intervue

Considering we are all pretty upset at the new york teams payrolls, i dont think its fair to call JP's comments, whining. It's upsetting that when ever you think a team is done raising payroll, it goes up by another 20M.

Thanks for the notes guys!

Wow, Fred, I think you heard a totally different interview from me. I heard no whining, and a lot of praise for Minaya. When the hosts brought up the targeting of Latin players, J.P. pointed out that he himself would target northeastern US players because he's scouted that area extensively and knows it, and that Minaya is just doing the same thing.

I know, I did say he praised Minaya

But you could also tell the image he was trying to create with his "what ever the fancy store was" analogy...through the whole intervue I had the impression he sounded very unconfident...When Brunt asked him about the Hinske position thing it seemed to catch him offguard, like he need to think on his feet to come up with an appropriate response...

Gitz, this is a real question -- how is it ironic that the Pirates signed Graham Koonce? I don't get it.

I disagree. I think he sounded right on top of his answers and confident in them.

The fancy store analogy was a good one, I think. No one expected the Jays to go after Carlos Beltran, and Carlos Beltran was what J.P. was comparing to the fancy store.

Mick, because typically the Pirates would be the last team you would expect to sign a guy who walks 120 times a year. It's teams like the A's and Red Sox who pursue these guys.

The store was Neiman-Mahhhhcus, by the way.

I'm with NFH. There have been times when JP has played the small market card a little too readily, but this was not one of them.

I think the Hinske-at-1B response was rhetoric, and I don't fault him for that.

Yeah, Rob, it's way easier to spell "fancy store".

Yeah, Rob, it's way easier to spell "fancy store".

No kidding, I had to Google that fancy store in order to spell it right. But, Schoeneweis is hard to spell, and I've learned that spelling. I think it would be funny if we started spelling "Scott" with one T, or a K.

When the hosts brought up the targeting of Latin players, J.P. pointed out that he himself would target northeastern US players
because he's scouted that area extensively and knows it, and that Minaya is just doing the same thing.

I wish Beltran was from Worcester and Tanyon Sturtze from Puerto Rico rather than the other way around. JP can't be serious about this. I mean really...

I wish Beltran was from Worcester and Tanyon Sturtze from Puerto Rico rather than the other way around. JP can't be serious about this. I mean really...

Actually if you heard the interview JP was pretty dismissive of the fact that the players the Mets acquired all happened to be Latin American. They're all good ballplayers first and foremost.

"Scott" with one T, or a K

Ooh, I smell a Cheer Club K-banner!

S-K-K-K-K-K-ott!!!

Actually if you heard the interview JP was pretty dismissive of the fact that the players the Mets acquired all happened to be Latin American. They're all good ballplayers first and foremost.

I'm responding to NFH's comment that JP said he'd target players from the NE US because of his background in scouting there. It's been at least 3 years since he was scouting there, he's running an MLB team, not trying to assemble a squad to play for Boston College. He shouldn't be focusing on any given area-as an MLB GM assembling an MLB team, he should have the ability to pull up a detailed report on any MLB player, regardless of the locale that the player hails from.

Unless I'm misinterpreting what NFH is saying, it's an odd comment. I don't want JP focusing on any given area, or player because he's got some past relationship/experience with them. It's unlikely that his time scouting in New England has led him to any insights there that other MLB teams don't have about the players in question at this point. Wasn't JP's history with Sturtze part of the reason we had to endure him and his asinine fist pump in a 17-2 loss during the 2003 season?

I'm responding to NFH's comment that JP said he'd target players from the NE US because of his background in scouting there.

I know what you're responding to and Im telling you that you're making a much bigger deal out of it then JP himself did in the interview. It was a very off-handed comment. He scouted that area so he knows those players very well, not that he doesnt know other players well also, but he probably knows those players better. Anyway in his couple years as GM so far I havent seen anything to suggest JP focuses on players from the Northeast.

He scouted that area so he knows those players very well, not that he doesnt know other players well also, but he probably knows those players better.

He scouted that area at least three years ago. At least. I think he was Oakland's scouting director before coming here, so god knows how long it's been since he was actually a scout operating in that area.

Whatever information JP garnered in that time period, has by now been (or should have been) replaced with lots of more recent and more relevant information than JP's observations however many years ago it was.

It may have been an offhand comment, but I still can't see how it can be correct.

It didn't sound like he knew the player so much as he knew the leagues, so he could put stats in context and whatnot.

But it was pretty offhanded, not nearly as strong a statement as some might be thinking.