Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Another series, another red-hot opponent for the Jays.

The White Sox come to town, and I think even their most ardent supporters would admit that they're fortunate to be sporting a league-best 21-7 record; they've benefited from a soft schedule, an incredible 12-3 record in one-run games and consistently superb pitching from up and down the staff despite rather modest run support. It can't last, can it?

That said, even the most bitter detractors of the Pale Hose would have to admit that this is a team capable of playing .500 ball the rest of the way; if they do so, they'll finish 88-74 and certainly in the hunt for supremacy in the milquetoast AL Central. Like it or not, the South Siders will be a factor in 2005.

This week's Scout features a slumping slugger, a startling starter and an innings-eater extraordinaire. After a poor series at the plate in Baltimore, the Fighting Jays will have to scratch and claw against a pitching staff that keeps the ball down and uses its defence. Might we see another 1-0, late-inning situation?

On to the Advance Scout!



* General: The White Sox have led in all 28 games this season, the longest season-opening streak in baseball history ... They've beaten up on the meek AL Central, going 18-4 against their division rivals ... The White Sox are at or near the bottom of the league with only 36 doubles and two triples, and have hit just .218 with men in scoring position ... They have been winning instead with pitching and defense. Their 2.94 team ERA easily leads the league, aided by allowing the league's fewest hits ... The Sox are excellent at going first-to-third on singles and first-to-home on doubles, and third-base coach Joey Cora will always test outfield throwing arms ... A contact-oriented club that should hit into a lot of Jays double plays ... Although he's certainly a controversial figure for his unabashed homerism, TV announcer Ken "Hawk" Harrelson deserves some sympathy after suffering a detached retina. He'll miss the Sox' road trip ... Note the six-man bullpen ...

* Tadahito Iguchi: Hit 24 homers for Fukuoka last season, but has only notched one in the big leagues ... Open stance with an elaborate, timing-mechanism leg kick before his swing ... Compact swing and good ability to spoil two-strike pitches ... Can be fooled by splitters and sinkers down in the zone ... Stick with the junk against him ... Antsy baserunner who can steal a base but can be picked off, too ... Another candidate in what should be a lively Rookie of the Year race ...

* Orlando Hernandez: Considering the excellent Yankees clubs for which he played, it's a bit surprising that El Duque is a mere 5-9 in sixteen career starts against the Jays ... Can't go much beyond the sixth or seventh inning anymore ... Same exaggerated delivery as always ... Throws a two-seamer to run away from lefties that still has some giddy-up ... Will backdoor righties with that pitch ... Watch out for his "eephus" curve ...

* Carl Everett: Strange switch-hitter with two very different-looking swings: He has his trademark rocking stance as a lefty, but really rather still as a righty when the pitcher's in his windup ... Still enough power to drive pitches even the other way ... Careless baserunner ... Less than perfect plate coverage, though; stay away from him and you can neutralize him, especially from the left side ... And yes, because of sac flies, his on-base percentage as a righthanded hitter is lower than his batting average ...

* Aaron Rowand: Squat stance reminiscent of Tom Wilson ... Thinks "centre and right," and likes to drive it that way ... Likes the ball up ... Impatient and likes to swing at the first pitch ... Like Hillenbrand, often doesn't take advantage of getting ahead in the count ... Can be fooled by changing speeds ... Chases down and away ... Good bunter and excellent baserunner ... Erratic fielder that does not take good paths to the ball ...

* A.J. Pierzynski: Likes the ball down and in ... Spray hitter who will hit singles to all fields ... Like Hinske, can't resist sharp-breaking pitches from lefties ...

* Joe Crede: Long swing and prefers off-speed stuff, which he often sits on ... Waits on breaking pitches nicely ... Curves have to be left way off the plate away to be effective ... Often lays off fastballs for strikes ... Good range at third base ...

* Scott Podsednik: Improved patience this season ... Selective and pesky ... Drew a bases-loaded walk to win yesterday's matinee ... Inside-out swing with very little power ... Good slap hitter on low pitches ... Can be frozen on the inside corner ...

* Paul Konerko: In a deep funk, despite his club's winning ways ... 0 for his last 21 and just 4 for his last 44 (.091) ... Had a good first half last season, but everyone remembers his .197 average at the All-Star Break in 2003 ... Winning has allowed Ozzie the ability to be patient with Konerko ... Upright stance with power to all fields ... Can be jammed and is prone to popping up pitches on his fists ...

* Timo Perez: Relegated to part-time duty now that Dye is healthy again ... Likes pitches on the inside part of the plate and can turn on pitches up and in while inside-outing pitches down and in ... Lays off pitches outside where he's far less effective ... Simply can't reach outside heat ...

* Dustin Hermanson: Notwithstanding his more celebrated Japanese colleague in the bullpen, Hermanson has truly been "Mr. Zero" this season ... Throws a good slider, and often ... More economical delivery than in the past ... Excellent location thus far, and he's been coaxing grounders ... Can dial up high heat if necessary ... The Jays showed Todd Williams a thing or two last series, so maybe it's Hermanson's turn ...

* Jon Garland: The American League Pitcher of the Month for April has all his pitches working ... Big, 12-to-6 curve ... Runs a two-seam fastball in on righthanded hitters ... Spots a four-seamer on the corners ... Nasty slider, too, that he throws to lefties on the inner half of the plate ... The opposition has been hitting for very little power against him thus far ...

* Willie Harris: Utilityman is on the bereavement list for undisclosed reasons and will miss this weekend series. Third catcher Jamie Burke was called up ...

* Mark Buehrle: Amazing stat #1: Buehrle's gone at least six full innings in his last thirty-four starts ... Amazing stat #2: The average length of ballgames in which Buehrle starts is 2:18 ... Unlike Garland, he's prone to throwing gopher balls. His slider sometimes hangs, and even when it's on, it doesn't have terribly sharp movement ... His fastball is a better pitch, and his three-quarters arm angle makes it effective against lefties ... "Sneaky fast" ...

* Shingo Takatsu: Mr. Zero is perceived to be scuffling despite only blowing one save thus far ... Throws an upper-80s fastball with tailing action which he slings in a delivery reminiscent of Shiggy Hasegawa ... His arm angle leads to less sink than hitters expect. Pitches that start at the knees stay at the knees for strikes ... Accordingly, when he leaves it up, he gets hammered ... "Frisbee" curve, and even the occasional El Duque-like "eephus" ...

* Damaso Marte: Wild but very tough lefty ... Expected the unexpected with his location ... Very high leg kick, and you can run on him ... Good 93-94 mph fastball that he dares hitters to chase up in the zone ... Likes to work lefties in and righties away ...

* Jermaine Dye: Can be induced to rolling over outside pitches, but takes up-and-away fastballs to right-centre ... Good defensive right fielder ... Runs pretty well despite his horrific leg injury from a few years ago ... Likes to lay off breaking stuff ...

* Cliff Politte: Old friend has been lights-out so far for the Chisox ... Now works from the stretch full-time ... Has been throwing first-pitch strikes with excellent velocity ... Fastball in the mid-90s ... Has allowed only two hits over his last eight outings, comprising 8 2/3 IP ...

* Frank Thomas: The Big Hurt is rehabilitating from ankle surgery but hasn't stayed out of the spotlight ... He called the stiff, newly-proposed steroid penalties "perfect," arguing that "[t]he bottom line is that this is an illegal drug" ... Speaking of which, Jeremy Giambi got promoted from AA Birmingham to AAA Charlotte this week ...
Advance Scout: White Sox, May 6-8 | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Judicious Geoff - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#115936) #
Hello, Gents. This is my debut.

I'm not a Jays fan, and only an AL fan in passing, but the early-season shakeup in the East has me intrigued. Certainly Toronto has performed better than expected, and this:
[i]NY Yankees 11 18 .379 8[/i]

is a wonderful anomaly. There is no greater anomaly than the White Sox, with their ersatz leadoff hitter and paper-tiger rotation. I think this weekend series is a clash of Pretenders, but I'm also the guy who picked Florida to finish fourth in the NL East...

Thoughts?
Mike Green - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#115937) #

a clash of Pretenders

Stop your sobbing, Magnificent Seven! Seriously, no one expects the Palehosen to continue at a .750 clip, and as for the Jays, they are 3 games above .500 in the beginning of May. No one is ordering their WS tickets just yet.

Magpie - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#115938) #
This weekend... Death or Glory or Back on the Chain Gang.
Jonny German - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#115939) #
Friday May 9, 2004: Jays are 11-18, Yankees 16-13.
Friday May 6, 2005: Yankees are 11-18, Jays 16-13.


Magpie - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#115941) #
Friday May 9, 2004: Jays are 11-18, Yankees 16-13.
Friday May 6, 2005: Yankees are 11-18, Jays 16-13.

So you're saying the Jays will win 101 games and the Yankees will win 67? Works for me.

Realistically both teams will end up in between those two extremes, but the Yankees have enough problems that the Jays and Baltimore can realistically begin to think about keeping in front of them. People are talking about the pitching, and with just cause - but this is a historically bad defensive team. According to Joe Sheehan:

They're converting just over 65% of balls in play against them into outs. I went back to 1986 and I can't find a team that converted less than 66% in a full season; under 67% isn't terribly common. The Yankees are on pace to have one of the worst team defenses in recent memory, and they have no obvious way to fix the problem.

Or look at it this way. Now that Womack is in the outfield, and because for some reason A.Rod is off to a terrible start in the field, Derek Jeter has been by far their best defensive player.

Mike D - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#115942) #
*ahem*

Bringing the discussion back to, you know, the White Sox, isn't it interesting that for a supposedly Bad Management Team(tm) that Doesn't Get It(tm), the White Sox are one of the few clubs that mixes and matches its bullpen usage based on the situation...and perhaps the only club to carry a six-man bullpen, to boot?

Offensively, the White Sox have the same nothing-but-singles problem the Jays have. Which of these two clubs is more likely to increase its slugging over the course of the year? You could make a case either way, I think. Vernon and Konerko are both due.
Stellers Jay - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#115943) #
"perhaps the only club to carry a six-man bullpen, to boot?"

Well, the Jays only use a six man bullpen. For whatever reason they insist on carrying Whiteside, who has been lit up 1 game and sat in the bullpen for 13 others. Half the bauxites could do that and would come cheaper than $300000.

Back to the White Sox, I'm amazed at how well their pitching staff has performed to date. When Hernandez hurts himself or one of the other starters comes crashing back to earth, they still have McCarthy in AAA. Everybody was raving about him in Spring Training and he's of to a pretty good start in Charlotte, striking out 50 in 37 innings with an era just over 3.
Magpie - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#115944) #
Yeah, thought that might get a rise out of you:-)

I want to cut and paste something I posted in the last Game Report - some of you may have seen it already, but it's really much more relevant here. I did the White Sox preview, as y'all remember, and they're making me look really, really bad so I have been thinking about them. A lot. As well as the Yankees, because if you can't enjoy this...

...what the White Sox did this offseason, while it was sold to the public as switching from longball to smallball may have actually been something a little less exciting. They were simply reallocating their budget from hitters to pitchers. The difference between Carlos Lee and Scott Podsednik is about $6 million a year. The difference between Magglio and Jermaine Dye is about $3 million. Even Iguchi is about $1.2 million cheaper than Valentin. (There also seem to have been some issues between Carlos Lee and his White Sox team mates - when they met this spring, Damaso Marte drilled him with the first pitch he threw, and it apparently was payback for some clubhouse stuff.)

They're spending a lot of money on pitching - Contreras and Garcia alone cost more than the entire Jays rotation. The Sox starters are costing $30 million this season. They're extremely unlikely to keep pitching like they have so far - once the weather heats up, I expect to see Garland and Garcia start giving up home runs, especially at home. On the other hand, it's also reasonable to expect Konerko and Dye to start hitting a few as well.

And like you say (I said it too!), to get to 88 wins they just need to play .500 ball the rest of the way. But I really think that once the weather warms up, lots and lots of long flies are going to be leaving the yard at US Cellular.

Leigh - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#115946) #
2005 White Sox, so far: .254/.316/.381
Dave Berg, career: .269/.328/.372

Just something to think about before this talk of the White Sox being able to play .500 the rest of the way spirals out of control.
Mike D - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#115947) #
I honestly have no idea how Chicago's going to do the rest of the season, but I'm not so sure that Garland will start serving up gopher balls. I mean, he's not even giving up doubles right now.

vs LH: .136 SLG (!), 1.36 GO/AO
vs RH: .362 SLG, 2.06 GO/AO

Meanwhile...

2005 White Sox, so far: .254/.316/.381
Dave Berg, career: .269/.328/.372


2005 White Sox, so far: .750 winning pct., 2.94 ERA, 1.16 WHIP
Greg Maddux, career: .636 winning pct., 2.96 ERA, 1.13 WHIP

We now return to the regularly-scheduled performance of Small Sample Size Theatre.
Magpie - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#115948) #
It's hard to figure how the Sox starters have kept the ball in the yard the way they have. The last year the top 10 in homers allowed in the AL included Garland (4th), Buehrle (5th tied), and Contreras (10th). And Garcia gave up 14 in his 103 IP for the White Sox. Surely they must begin reverting to form, and Now Would Be a Good Time, by the way.

In other Chicago news, Cubs Lose! Cubs Lose! Yes, indeed. Mark Prior struck out 10 men in 8 innings ands turned a 2-1 lead over to LaTroy Hawkins. Who loaded the bases with one out, retired Polanco on a line drive to the pitcher's mound and then threw the ball away trying for the game-ending double play. Two runs scored.

Whenever new ways are being found to lose, the Cubs will be finding them. Depend on it.

jeff_h - Friday, May 06 2005 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#115958) #
To defend BP re Ken Williams... the 2005 BP is very fair to Ken Williams, neither suggesting HE DOESN'T GET IT nor making him one of their poster childs.

Ozzie... is a different story, but I read BP as assessing (rightly) far more import to their analysis of roster construction than to managers. I'm guessing they'd expect Guillen to be a 4-5 game drag over the course of the season, which is basically noise after 28 games.
Advance Scout: White Sox, May 6-8 | 12 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.