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Not satisfied with one series from the 15th to the 17th of another month, these two teams are at it again in September. The Devil Rays, as is their wont, are not very good. They were swept by the Yankees, and didn't hold a lead after the first inning in either of the first two games. Their 19 road wins are the fewest in baseball; their 53 road losses are the most.

In other words: it's another team out of contention, and, due to the fun of university, another reduced Scout. Coming to you live between calculus and combinatorics...

On to the Advance Scout!

General: Released Travis Lee over the weekend. Their active roster now has only five players remaining from their Opening Day roster -- the Jays, by comparison, have 20 if I counted correctly ... Joe Maddon wants to go with six starters over the last month of the season, so the rotation order is foggy. {Seo, Howell} is the set of pitchers scheduled for Friday and Saturday, but the order is to be determined. I'm pretty sure that Brian Stokes is scheduled for Sunday, though ... Recently lost two of three to the Twins, two of three to Oakland, then were swept by the Yankees. Four of their five series against Toronto this year were also in the "lost two of three" category ... Yep, still on pace for about 64 wins. You know it's not good for the team when the recap of a 9-6 win over a first place team has the following first line: "Yes, the Devil Rays did blow another lead." ... Recently played the Yankees, and Tuesday night's game saw the Spring Training version of the Yankees' lineup enter the game after New York scored nine runs in the first ... Fell behind in the first inning the next night and lost, 8-4. Thursday night, they lost, 7-4. So they're getting better! ...

J.P. Howell: Not to be confused with Jason Hammel (he said, speaking from experience), Howell was drafted in 2004 by the Royals as their compensation pick for Raul Ibanez, then the recent Joey Gathright trade brought him to St. Petersburg ... Confusingly called up to K.C. in June 2005, after just two months of pitching above Rookie ball. The results were predictable ... Pitched the second-last game of the 2005 season in Toronto, holding the Jays scoreless until the seventh. He has not pitched against the Jays before or since that day ... Finalist for the Roger Clemens Award with the University of Texas, but the award for the top college pitcher went to Dirtbag Jered Weaver ... Will Kimmey of Baseball America described his repetoire better than I can: "A lot of people can hate on Howell because he doesn't have great velo, but he can take his four, five-pitch repertoire and make it work like 10 pitches because he can add, subtract and locate...his breaking stuff can eat up lefties." Kimmey also called him "the consummate crafty lefty". What's with these lefties who can hardly break 90? Are all the lefthanded strong-armed children of America banished to the outfield? ...

Jae Seo: Another fine citizen of Michalaklineston ... Since his 7 inning, 10 hit, 2 run outing against Toronto (Game Score: 51) on August 15, strained his groin on August 20, then returned with Game Scores of 49 and 20 against Minnesota and Oakland ... For more details on Seo (or any other player, really), check our August writeup ...

Brian Stokes: Undrafted free agent who slowly worked his way up, but not before taking a break in 2004 for Tommy John surgery ... Second career appearance in the bigs (the first was a so-so start against Seattle) saw him strand two runners and let another two score in the Yankees' big first inning on Tuesday, then gave up three more runs in the third ... Stats below are with Durham (AAA). Not 100% sure on the GB/LD rates. Feel free to choose your own adventure ...

Carl Crawford: Stole his 50th base on Wednesday, reaching that mark for the third time in four years (55-59-46 previously) ... We say it all the time; he keeps getting better every year ... Riding a mini-hot streak, with 10 hits and three steals in five games from Sept. 8 to Sept. 13. Not that it's statistically significant -- he raised his average six points in that week and has lost six in another five-day stretch -- but I'm sharing the information anyway ...

Jonny Gomes: Much was made of his slump back in August. Well, now he's hurt. His replacement on the roster was Delmon Demarcus Young ...

Seth McClung: Before his demotion, was mainly a starter with 47 walks and 37 strikeouts in 80.2 innings. Since his return, has pitched out of the bullpen late in the game, with close to one walk and one strikeout per inning ... Hits 96, 97 with his fastball and his curve comes in the low 80s, but he really doesn't locate either of them well ...

Greg Norton: Sharing 1B playing time with Ty Wigginton after Lee's release ... When reading this article, I realized I had to include Maddon's confusing-yet-interesting quote about Norton's hitting ("The thing people don't talk about enough with Norton is...his hand action when he hits the baseball. It's unique and it's good, and that's why he's able to hit the ball as far as he does. It's different in a good way."), but then Norton followed it up with his own self-deprecating one: "I left a small village on the basepaths and we still scored nine runs" ...

Delmon Young: I'll let First Inning take the lead here: "He got off to a slow start at the plate, earned a 50-game suspension for tossing his bat at an umpire, and did not hit for much power. His batted ball charts indicate he isn't pulling the ball in the air very often, so we could see increased power production from Young if he makes the necessary adjustments." ... Joe Maddon, it's your turn: "He's won me over big time. He's been great in the clubhouse. He's been great on the field. His work ethic is among the best. And his mind for the game is among the best even though he's going to be 21 [Young turned 21 on Thursday]. That's incredible. So I think he's come a long way in a short period of time." ... Stats below are with Durham (AAA) ...

Advance Scout: Devil Rays, September 15-17 | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#155443) #
Combinatorics puzzler of the week.  It's a two parter.  First, assume the Yankees are guaranteed to finish in first place in the AL East.  How many final standings possibilities are there in the American League, taking into account each wild card possibility?  Second, assuming that the teams and division alignments remain the same for 100 years and that the teams are of precisely quality, what are the odds that there will be completely different standings in each of the next 100 years, aside from the Yankees finishing in first? 

D-Rays' puzzlers for 2008.  First, figure out who is going to play third base, shortsop and second base among Jorge Cantu, Ben Zobrist, B.J. Upton, Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac (hint: Cantu at second is the wrong answer).  Second: sort out your starters behind Kazmir.  Bonus points for figuring out a prayer to the pitching gods which will protect Kazmir's elbow.

Mike Green - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#155445) #
Oops. In the second part of the combinatorics puzzler, you should assume that the other clubs are "of precisely the same quality."
Barry Bonnell - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#155446) #
Completely agree with Rich Griffin today. There is no way the Jays have lost 25 million dollar. The accounting is from the same people who claimed that Forrest Gump lost money. http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&c=Article&cid=1158270614107&call_pageid=968867503640&col=970081593064&t=TS_Home
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#155448) #
"Second: sort out your starters behind Kazmir. "

They need to find a way to move the fences back, oh.. 30 feet or so.  Create a modern-day Astrodome.

Then they need to take the guys with better stuff and implore them to throw strikes.  Just worry about changing speeds.. don't fret about location.   Let their atheletic defense make plays.
Pepper Moffatt - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#155449) #
"Completely agree with Rich Griffin today. There is no way the Jays have lost 25 million dollar. The accounting is from the same people who claimed that Forrest Gump lost money."

Heh.. didn't I make the exact same point two days ago?!?!  Except I used Crash.. Forrest Gump is actually a much better example.
Ryan Day - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#155451) #
 Griffin's overall point is probably right, but that's still a horrible column: Never mind the awful, barely coherent pun in the lede, his whole argument seems to be that Ted Rogers is a very successful businessman and has made lots and lots of money doing other things. Because Rogers is smart and successful, the Jays can't be losing money. He'd be a lot more convincing if he looked at the actual numbers.
Barry Bonnell - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#155452) #

I missed your comment Pepper.

 

Pepper Moffatt - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#155453) #
"I missed your comment Pepper."

Heh.. no worries.  I thought you were saying that Griffin made that comparison (I hadn't read the article).  I was wondering if Griffin was getting story ideas from the Box. :)

I like your example much better - I wish I had thought of it.
Pistol - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#155455) #

Howell was drafted in 2004 by the Royals as their compensation pick for Raul Ibanez, then the recent Joey Gathright trade brought him to St. Petersburg

Hey, the same Joey Gathright that jumped over a car!?!

Howell was the player picked directly ahead of Zack Jackson in 2004.

Mike Green - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#155457) #
My layperson's understanding was that Kazmir's elbow might be more of a long-term problem than his shoulder.  Whatever, you can make it double points for a prayer to the baseball gods that will protect both elbow and shoulder. 
mendocino - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#155459) #
Blue Jays drop Pulaski.
Mike Green - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#155460) #
Thanks, Mendocino.  I will open a new thread for this topic.
Rob - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#155471) #
I like the first part to the American League puzzler (answer: 504), but the second one requires really large numbers, which is always cool, so I'll go right to the "100 years" part.

Second, assuming that the teams and division alignments remain the same for 100 years and that the teams are of precisely [equal] quality, what are the odds that there will be completely different standings in each of the next 100 years, aside from the Yankees finishing in first?

We already know (because I told you and you all, of course, believe me) we have 504 possibilities. So this is a relatively simple one in theory -- for there to be different standings every year, 2007 cannot be the same as 2006, 2008 cannot be the same as 2007 or 2006, and so on. But there are no restrictions on the first year, 2006 -- it can be any of those 504.

2007, though, must be one of the remaining 503, and 2008 must be one of the remaining 502, and all the way to the year 2105...well, this turns out to be a very large number in the end. It's 265 digits long. And the number of total possible outcomes (assuming the standings can repeat themselves) is 504 to the power 100. That's also a very large number.

Anyway, you asked for the odds; I'll provide a probability figure instead. It's approximately 0.00002645, which works out to about a 0.003% chance that the divisions are different every year under the conditions you specified.

The D-Rays' puzzlers, of course, are far less mathematical. I'd try it, but with more information. Wouldn't (Cantu,6) be just as bad as (Cantu,4), for example?
Mike Green - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#155476) #
(Cantu 6) would be so wrong that I had not even considered it as a possibility.  The hint should have been that Cantu as your second baseman is a wrong answer.



AWeb - Friday, September 15 2006 @ 07:02 PM EDT (#155479) #
504 possible standings? I have it at 207,630:
4! ways for the rest of the East to finish, 4! ways for the West, 5! for the Central. 3 possible wildcards for each set of standings (second in each division). This gives 4!*5!*4!*3=207,630 possible standings. Ah, I see what you did, you added the possible divisional standings, rather than multiplying them. But for all 24 possible standings in the East, there are 120 possible standings in the central, and 24 more for the West. To get the proper count, you have to multiply them. There are 220 possible playoff combinations alone.

As for the second part, I have it at about a 97.6% chance of no repeated standings, or about 1:40 odds, which is say, it's very likely given those circumstances there would not be any repeated standings in a 100 year period.
Rob - Saturday, September 16 2006 @ 10:45 AM EDT (#155485) #
Yeah, 207630 is right. Multiplication is the way to go on that one.

That, of course, changes the second part. I don't have it as 2.4%; rather, it's much, much less. But any way you look at it, "very likely given those circumstances there would not be any repeated standings in a 100 year period" is bang-on.

(Cantu 6) would be so wrong that I had not even considered it as a possibility.  The hint should have been that Cantu as your second baseman is a wrong answer.

I thought so, but I can't assume anything. :)

Baseball-wise...for shortstop, Upton started 83 games there in Durham this year, while Zobrist had 95 combined between his two AAA stops. Brignac, however, played shortstop and only shortstop this year, so as long as he's playable in the majors, he'll probably get the nod. Third base is most likely Longoria's to lose, but I wonder if he could go back to second. It would open up third base for any of Upton-Zobrist-Cantu.
Advance Scout: Devil Rays, September 15-17 | 34 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.