Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

The big news just came in. Robbie Alomar is now officially the first Blue Jay in the Hall Of Fame thanks to his "consistence excellence", according to the HOF dude. Alomar got 90% of the vote while Blyleven received 79.7%. Barry Larkin, Jeff Bagwell and Jack Morris are among those who didn't make the cut, and we'll update the vote totals when those become available.

We all know about Alomar's amazing career here. A 123 OPS+, three playoff appearances in his first three years including 2 World Series wins. Clutch home runs. Defense that looked amazing at times, leading to a record 10 gold gloves (most for a second baseman). 12 All-Star games, seven times getting MVP votes (1.91 shares). Clearly a HOF'er. It's unfortunate that he didn't make the cut last year because of some misguided desire by certain members of the BBWAA to restrict the honour of being a "first ballot hall of famer" to those who somehow deserve it (I'm still not clear on exactly who that refers to).

His playoff as a Jay stats: 44 hits, 2 home runs (both vs Oakland in 1992), his 1993 WS stats were incredible: .480/.519/.640. Lifetime in the playoffs he hit .313/.381/.448 and for the regular season he hit .300/.371/.443.

Some more stats, comparing Alomar to second basemen already in the hall:

Obviously WAR isn't the be all and end all, but it's clear Robbie isn't in the conversation with Collins, Morgan, Hornsby and Lajoie for greatest second baseman of all-time. He's probably in the top 10, though. A top 10 all-time player at any position is a hall of famer.

His playing career was remarkable and if Ash hadn't tried to lowball him we might have had Alomar throughout the 90's. His career ended quickly - from superstar at 33 (150 OPS+) to never getting a 90+ OPS+ after. However, it was an amazing one and we'll never forget that amazing trade Gillick did to get him (Alomar & Carter for McGriff & Fernandez).

Here's Alomar getting the call:

Here are the full voting results. Those whose vote %s moved by more than 3% are highlighted. To those lamenting a lack of Tim Raines: these things take time. Have patience. He actually showed a pretty strong improvement this year, and as John notes below, Larkin looks good for next year what with the weak ballot.

Posted by John Northey on Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:00 PM EST.

Alomar Gets In | 58 comments | Create New Account

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John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:05 PM EST (#228375) #

Obviously I'm very glad to see Robbie get in.

Interesting to see who is now off though. Kevin Brown, viewed by many as a legitimate HOF'er, Harold Baines (he has been staying right on the line for years), John Franco (400 saves ain't what it used to be). Ex-Jay John Olerud got 4 votes, tied with Al Leiter. Raul Mondesi couldn't muster a single vote.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:10 PM EST (#228376) #

Juan Gonzalez just crossed the 5% needed to stick around, a bit of a surprise as he is basically a better version of Jim Rice (although there is a steroid issue). Rafael Palmeiro got just 11%, a record low for a 3000 hit guy (I think all others were elected on their first try). Mark McGwire fell below 20% for the first time (I think).

Barry Larkin is the only guy inline for election next year I suspect, at 62.1%. Morris is stuck near 50%, Lee Smith has no momentum, Bagwell has steroid rumours now, Raines is still under 40% (guess the voters didn't watch baseball in the 80's).

Very nice to see Walker crack 20% in his first try. Gives him a legit shot someday. Trammell at 24% is way too low, he should've been in years ago. Edgar Martinez has the DH thing against him so I suspect 40-50% will be his peak potential. I am surprised the voters haven't grabbed onto Fred McGriff as the 'clean' home run hitter yet (still under 20%).

bpoz - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:16 PM EST (#228377) #

GREAT NEWS!!! For sure, is he going in as a Blue Jay?

WOW... 2 World Championships and a HOF member. GO JAYS GO!!! HOW BOUT THEM JAYS!!!

I AM HAPPY!!!

Was Robbie our best trade?

John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:27 PM EST (#228379) #

For those wondering... the 2012 ballot can be seen at Baseball Reference.

Larkin is the only holdover I see getting in with his 62% vote. Bernie Williams will get support, but not enough. Vinny Castilla, Jeromy Burnitz, & Ruben Sierra's 300 HRs each will get them a vote or two, but that's it. Brad Radke's 148 wins is the most for any pitcher being added, while Danny Graves 186 saves is the most for that category (if he even gets onto the ballot).

Then comes 2013. The year the ballot gets blown out due to Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, Piazza, Biggio, Schilling. Not to mention Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Steve Finley, Julio Franco and ex-Jay product Shawn Green (over 300 HR + 2000 Hits).

CeeBee - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:27 PM EST (#228380) #

Glad to see Alomar and Blyleven get in. Not so happy about Raines, Trammell, Larkin and McGriff though.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:30 PM EST (#228381) #

Larkin, Trammell, Raines and Morris all belong in the Hall ... here I look not at numbers, but at the eye test ... in the 1980s and '90s, these four guys were all among those I watched and thought "I am seeing a future Hall of Famer."

And keeping Bagwell out due to rumors is a freaking travesty. I honestly thought he'd be first-ballot.

The best offensive shortstops in the AL and NL for a decade each aren't even borderline? Silly, silly, silly.

Gerry - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:39 PM EST (#228382) #

First off all congratulations to Robbie Alomar. Alomar was a great baseball player who could do anything on the field he wanted to, especially in his prime years. His home run off Eckersley is right up there with Joe Carter's home run in Blue Jay lore.

Also congratulations to Bert Blyleven.

I agree that it is a shame that Tim Raines in particular didn't get in, or get more support. However I refuse to get excited about the Hall of Fame. It is a private institution, owned by an upsate New York family. And the players are voted in by a group of writers with their own biases and group think and there are not enough of them to take the biases and group think out.

Mike Green - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:46 PM EST (#228383) #

On the good side, Blyleven and Alomar are worthy choices. On the not-so-good, Morris getting 53% and more than Bagwell, Raines, Edgar, Trammell, Walker, Murphy and Olerud illustrates that the voters have a way to go in understanding the impact of run support and defensive support on won-loss record.

In fairness, this ballot was crowded with eight eminently worthy candidates (Blyleven, Alomar, Larkin, Bagwell, Raines, Edgar, Trammell and Walker) without getting into the whole PED mess. Speaking of that, Kevin Brown did not make the cut. He was the first of the second tier of great 90s pitchers, but because he was named in the Mitchell report and because he was not particularly famous, he did not get much love. He was actually pretty comparable to Morris through age 30, and then he moved to the NL in 1996 and perhaps with the aid of enhancement, became a monster.

Geoff - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:47 PM EST (#228384) #

Where did that photo come from? Looks like Ash and Beeston with Alomar, in front of World Series trophies. Quite the amusing pic to stage.

Is Ash to blame for not getting Robbie signed? I would point blame towards if they didn't sign Carter to that 5-year contract after 1992, or at least kept it to 3 years, they would have found ample budget room for Robbie. Carter was a special but not great player and signing him to a 5-year deal as he turns 33 years old is regrettable.

Dave Till - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:55 PM EST (#228385) #

Congratulations to Mr. Alomar - it's an honour that is entirely deserved. I am assuming that he will go in as a Jay - has that been confirmed?

His playing career was remarkable and if Ash hadn't tried to lowball him we might have had Alomar throughout the 90's.

From what I recall, he wanted out of Toronto after 1995 - he wanted to play for a contender. Or is my memory playing tricks on me?

92-93 - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:56 PM EST (#228386) #

I'd be able to stomach the picture of Doc on the left side of the Box banner a lot better if that beautiful picture of Alomar diving replaced Hill on the right side.

John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 02:58 PM EST (#228387) #

As I recall, Ash said that he thought salaries would go DOWN after the strike, then was shocked when things went the other way. Thus he held off on Alomar when he could've signed him to an extension pre the strike. One of the many 'coulda woulda shoulda' things in Jays history. It is interesting to think of all the dominoes that would fall though if Alomar had signed a 3 year extension.

1996: Tomas Perez 64 OPS+ vs Alomar's 136
1997: Carlos Garcia 47 OPS+ vs Alomar's 134
1998: Craig Grebeck 76 OPS+ vs Alomar's 100

Think those extra 24 points in 1998 might have added 4 wins and pushed the Jays into the playoffs? Not to mention shifting Grebeck back to a utility role which suited him better. Yup, things could've been very different.

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 03:11 PM EST (#228388) #

Congratulations to Alomar. I think it was in the first game of the '92 series, when a ball was lined sharply to Alomar's left, out of reach, but he dove for it on the sound of the bat and didn't miss it by much. You could see the look on the Braves' bench. "They try for those?!

2013. The year the ballot gets blown out due to Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, Piazza, Biggio, Schilling. Not to mention Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Steve Finley, Julio Franco and ex-Jay product Shawn Green (over 300 HR + 2000 Hits).

Raines and Larkin will be in the Hall long before Bonds, Sosa, Clemens, Palmeiro or Victor Conte.

JohnL - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 03:32 PM EST (#228389) #

1998: Craig Grebeck 76 OPS+ vs Alomar's 100

Think those extra 24 points in 1998 might have added 4 wins and pushed the Jays into the playoffs? Not to mention shifting Grebeck back to a utility role which suited him better. Yup, things could've been very different.

Although in 1998, Tony Fernandez was the starting 2B until Sprague was traded. (TF had a 120 OPS+ for the full season)

John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 03:34 PM EST (#228390) #

Say, I wonder if the Jays will officially retire #12 now that Alomar is in the HOF (vs the 'level of excellence')?

Noticed that they have July 31st as Alomar bobblehead day (got it in an email from the Jays a few minutes ago) as well.

christaylor - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 03:40 PM EST (#228391) #

Raines vote % is a bit of a travesty.

Probably not a popular opinion -- but anyone else think that Rafael Palmeiro ought to get more consideration? 11% ought to be a bit embarassing for one of the four players with 3000H and 500HR. His top bb-ref 5 comps are 4 HOF and a sure fire HOFer.

Yes, yes, I know he lied and tested positive... but still. 2013 a whole lot of hypocrisy and double-think will set in and McGwire and Palmeiro will probably drop off quietly. I don't see anyone saying Mays ought not to be a HOF b/c of amphetamine use which are probably more performance enhancing that steroids given the way the baseball season is structured.

That said, Alomar deserves the recognition, but the HOF is a bit of a joke. Catch the taste!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnu9DCLJtRE

John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 04:00 PM EST (#228393) #

Price of quickly checking B-R rather than trying to dig into who played when. Wonder how different 1998 would've been if Alomar was here. The Jays might not have 'gave up' mid-season, thus not traded Sprague (29 OPS+ post trade), Mike Stanley (128 OPS+ post trade), Juan Guzman (107 ERA+ after trade), Tony Phillips (82 OPS+), and Randy Myers (64 ERA+ post trade plus over $13 million in salary for 2 more DL seasons).

Plus, of course, would the Jays have signed Tony Fernandez that winter if Alomar was still at 2B and Sprague at 3B? Of course, Sprague was coming off a poor season (228/306/385) so they still might have. Given Tony hit so much better at 3B than 2B (for whatever reason - 190 OPS points) it might have changed things even more.

Alternate universes would be fun to view wouldn't they?

Dave Till - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 04:10 PM EST (#228394) #

I think it was in the first game of the '92 series, when a ball was lined sharply to Alomar's left, out of reach, but he dove for it on the sound of the bat and didn't miss it by much. You could see the look on the Braves' bench. "They try for those?!

I have a memory similar to that. I was watching a Jays spring training game on TV in 1991, and somebody hit a slow roller to second. Alomar charged, bent down, scooped up the ball, and flipped it to first in one motion without needing to straighten himself first. Buck Martinez's comment was, "Get used to that, folks."

(Yes, they used to broadcast spring training games. And the Jays would sometimes play a spring game or two in the SkyDome. They were that popular once upon a time. Glory days, they'll pass you by, etc.)

TimberLee - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 05:54 PM EST (#228398) #

Congratulations to Robbie - an obvious Hall of Fame calibre player and long a family favourite here. Man, he was beautiful to watch play The Game!

Ducey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 06:45 PM EST (#228400) #

Dumb question:

Alomar, Molitor, and Gillick are the only people connected with the Blue Jays to be in the Hall of Fame?

bpoz - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 06:59 PM EST (#228401) #

Is Dave Winfield in the Hall?

Robbie says that he wants to go into the Hall wearing a Blue Jays Cap. But he also said it is not up to him but the Hall Committee.

Chuck - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 07:22 PM EST (#228402) #

Alomar, Molitor, and Gillick are the only people connected with the Blue Jays to be in the Hall of Fame?

Phil Niekro.

Chuck - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 07:24 PM EST (#228403) #

Is Dave Winfield in the Hall?

Yes.

Dewey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 07:32 PM EST (#228404) #

Best second baseman I ever saw play. And one of the very best players, period. His homer off Eckersly in Oakland was a turning point for the Jays' franchise. Just a very classy ballplayer, and a great joy to watch. One of those whose greatness on the field you felt was clearly intertwined with his intelligence. Of course, some people call that �instincts�.

Powder Blues - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 08:21 PM EST (#228406) #

Congrats to Robbie McCain Fruit Punch Alomar and Big Bert.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mnu9DCLJtRE

...

Anyway, this vote went pretty much how I expected it to. Nice 10% bump for the NL's best SS of the decade, Morris staying put is fine by me, nice showing for Walker and Bagwell, and of course, Palmeiro is being punished for hypocrisy, if not steroids.

Mick Doherty - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 08:39 PM EST (#228407) #

Incidentally, I know this is a Jays site, but I do think a better headline would have been
Alomar, Blyleven (finally!) get in ...

Will be interesting to see tomorrow's Cleveland Plain Dealer. Bert (1981-85) and Robbie (1999-2001) were both Indians for several years at one time, recall.

Whether Alomar goes in as a Jay, I don't know. But I hope the much-traveled Blyleven goes in as a Twin -- 10 1/2 of his 22 big league seasons (two tours) were with Minn.

Adrock - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 10:14 PM EST (#228408) #

Hooray for Alomar and Blyleven, and some good news on the Larkin front.

Barry was probably my favourite non-Expo National Leaguer of the 90s.

And I think for many Blue Jays fans, Robbie's home run of Eckersley in the 1992 ALCS was the biggest hit in team history, ahead of Carter's home run or Winfield's double.

That line drive off the untouchable Eck was the moment when Jays fans truly believed that after 9 years of coming close and failing, we were finally going to win a title.

On a different note, it seems like all of the defensive metrics agree that Alomar was a sub-par defender and yet, everyone who watched him thought the exact opposite (scouts, fans, other players). His 10 Gold Gloves weren't sneered at the way Jeter's have been, and over 30 years of watching baseball, I don't know if I've seen anybody cover more ground on the right side of the infield.

But the numbers beg the question: Were we all taking crazy pills? Was it possible we were all horribly mistaken? Or are the defensive metrics, as they apply to Alomar, deeply flawed?

Tango, are you there? Does anyone have any insight?

In conclusion, I would like to conclude: Catch the taste!

John Northey - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 10:57 PM EST (#228409) #

When it comes to Alomar's defense I wonder if he had issues going up the middle. We all remember tons of great plays going towards 1B but few going the other way. When it comes to defense a ton of spectacular plays in one direction can bias your viewpoint of the whole picture. None-the-less, balls up the middle would've been less harmful (potentially) than ones to the right (which could go into the corner depending on spin and speed).

As to caps...
Alomar: 5 years as a Jay, no more than 3 anywhere else. His Cleveland years had a higher OPS+ (134) than his Toronto years (123) but over 1000 more PA in Toronto makes it obvious this is where he belonged.

Blyleven: 149 wins in Minnesota vs 48 in Cleveland and fewer in each of his other stops. Mix in a WS ring (he also has one from his Pittsburgh days) and it seems clear what cap he should have. He bottomed out at 14.1% in HOF voting, so there is hope for almost everyone who stayed on the ballot.

JohnL - Wednesday, January 05 2011 @ 10:57 PM EST (#228410) #

An Alomar photo... The front page of the Oakland Tribune, Oct. 12, 1992, the day after The Eckersley Home Run. I was at a conference in San Francisco, and so was able to catch Game 4 in Oakland. Incredibly exciting, and as memorable as everyone else recalls it. The only drawback was that I had to give a presentation the next day, and lost my voice from all the yelling I did at the game!

I was also at the Carter home run game the next year; but this one ranked right up there, partly because it really did seem to say, "this time, the Jays aren't going to collapse".

Hope the photo is readable... had to shoot it on a strange angle to avoid shadows.

(The Tribune front page 2 days later after the Jays won the ALCS back at home featured a photo of two A's fans in a sports bar looking despondent, and a big banner headline: "SKY DOOM!")

Richard S.S. - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 02:20 AM EST (#228412) #

Paul Beeston tries to explain how we lost Robbie later in this segment: http://www.fan590.com/ondemand/media.jsp?content=20110105_180539_10992

Mike D - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 07:49 AM EST (#228413) #

I'd be curious to see what John Dewan's numbers (if he was tracking play-by-play then) would have said about Alomar's glove. There sure seemed to be a lot of "pluses" on that side of the ledger.

rpriske - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 09:08 AM EST (#228414) #

Probably not a popular opinion -- but anyone else think that Rafael Palmeiro ought to get more consideration? 11% ought to be a bit embarassing for one of the four players with 3000H and 500HR. His top bb-ref 5 comps are 4 HOF and a sure fire HOFer.

More than just consideration, Plameiro should be IN the HoF.

Matthew E - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 09:08 AM EST (#228415) #

On a different note, it seems like all of the defensive metrics agree that Alomar was a sub-par defender and yet, everyone who watched him thought the exact opposite (scouts, fans, other players). His 10 Gold Gloves weren't sneered at the way Jeter's have been, and over 30 years of watching baseball, I don't know if I've seen anybody cover more ground on the right side of the infield.

But the numbers beg the question: Were we all taking crazy pills? Was it possible we were all horribly mistaken? Or are the defensive metrics, as they apply to Alomar, deeply flawed?

I thought highly of Alomar's defense in '91 and '92, but starting in '93 I noticed a lot of balls getting through into right field where I thought to myself, "you know, a player with Alomar's reputation should get to that ball." I don't think he was a bad second baseman at all but I don't think he's as good as his reputation was.

Mike Green - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 09:12 AM EST (#228416) #

I have Dewan's numbers for 95-97 in a Stats handbook. Alomar was a little below average by then. My own observation of him differs quite a bit from the consensus here. I thought that he was a great, great hitter, but an inconsistent (and on the whole average) fielder. He was indeed great going toward the line and made numerous spectacular plays. He was a little below average going up the middle (where 2/3 of the plays are), and completely bailed out on the pivot. For what it's worth, Bill James reported in one of the abstracts that (at least some) Blue Jay scouts thought that Alomar's defensive ability was not as good as his reputation.

One of the things that I learned from studying Larkin's defence a few years ago is that middle infielders have roughly twice as many chances up the middle than in the hole.

So, for me, Alomar was more Carew than Mazeroski, despite all the Gold Gloves. And that isn't exacly an insult.

Gerry - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 09:14 AM EST (#228417) #

JohnL

That is a great newspaper to have. Thanks for sharing.

Geoff - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 10:02 AM EST (#228418) #

Beeston's explanation seems to be somewhere between "everybody was leaving; the team was in transition; Robbie didn't want to be part of a rebuilding club" and "I don't know".

I recall that by the end of '95 that it seemed certain that Alomar was not staying. And that there was a story that was made how he stopped playing in September (26, as i looked it up) because he didn't want to lose his .300 average for the season heading to free agency. Everyone in Toronto saw this, and it was apparent he had no intention of sticking around.

Couldn't have helped that the Jays were horrible that year. 56-88. Last place, below the lowly Tigers. Fanbase had grown miserable and Alomar had likely seen enough of the environment.

Cue the exodus. White, Molitor, Cone, Leiter and Alomar. But then in '96 up steps Delgado and Hentgen wins a Cy Young and the year after Clemens comes into the fold.

John Northey - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 10:27 AM EST (#228419) #

Yeah, by mid-1995 it was obvious the Jays were in rebuilding mode (although Ash tried to shrink it drastically which was a mistake) and Alomar and the rest were about to leave. However, pre-the 1995 season it would've been fairly easy to sign him to an extension but the Jays waited until the last moment, thus losing Alomar.

1995 was a lost opportunity. For Cone the Jays received mediocre prospects, Alomar/White/Molitor/Leiter left, the Jays blew a lot on Erik Hanson (over $9 million for an 87 ERA+). The draft picks gained from losing those guys netted the Jays Joe Lawrence, Pete Tucci, Brent Abernathy, and Clayton Andrews (only White & Alomar got them picks).

What a waste eh?

lexomatic - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 10:47 AM EST (#228420) #

I think once the steroid class joins the ballot, we'll be able to see if Mcgriff will have a chance of making it. That he lost votes is troubling. I was reading Baseball Thnkfactory (the Posnanski recap thread here: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/newsstand/discussion/posnanski_hal_of_fame_recap/)

And there was a discussion about the best NL 1b.. sadly it highlights how Mcgriff falls through the cracks. His OPS+ puts him in at #8. Not bad. If I knew how to do the sortable lists on baseball reference I'd throw in the similar AL list, and reduce the requirements to1100 gp for each league to see what would happen. I think his consistency, and a few poor seasons near the tail end of his career kept him from 500 hrs

Mcgriff NL stats Rk OPS+ G PA H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS
----------------------8 132 1305 5453 1347 269 886 .284 .370 .512 882
Mcgriff total stats Rk OPS+ G PA H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
8 134 2460 10174 2490 493 1550 .284 .377 .509 886

Spanning Multiple Seasons or entire Careers, Playing in the NL, From 1901 to 2010, Played 75% of games at 1B, (requiring At least 1500 games), sorted by greatest Adjusted OPS+

Rk Player OPS+ G PA H HR RBI BA OBP SLG OPS Pos Tm
1 Albert Pujols 172 1558 6782 1900 408 1230 .331 .426 .624 1.050 *37/59D64 STL
2 Johnny Mize 164 1509 6398 1781 315 1158 .320 .405 .577 .983 *3/9 STL-NYG
3 Jeff Bagwell 149 2150 9431 2314 449 1529 .297 .408 .540 .948 *3/D9 HOU
4 Willie McCovey 147 2577 9659 2206 521 1555 .270 .375 .516 .890 *37/9 SFG-SDP
5 Todd Helton 137 1930 8234 2236 333 1239 .324 .424 .555 .979 *3/79D COL
6 Bill Terry 136 1721 7111 2193 154 1078 .341 .393 .506 .899 *3/97 NYG
7 Orlando Cepeda 135 1946 7967 2169 358 1261 .298 .351 .507 .858 *37/95 SFG-TOT-STL-ATL
8 Keith Hernandez 130 2045 8408 2156 161 1063 .298 .386 .440 .826 *3/79 STL-TOT-NYM
9 Jim Bottomley 127 1786 7632 2125 206 1315 .312 .371 .505 .876 *3/4 STL-CIN
10 Derrek Lee 123 1829 7486 1843 312 1019 .282 .367 .498 .865 *3/D SDP-FLA-CHC-TOT

I like these names, but I'd move them around a bit:
Pujols
Bagwell
McCovey / Mize pick 'em
Hernandez
Helton
Terry
Cepeda
(huge gap)
Bottomley
Lee

Pujols would have to have a long, disastrous twilight, starting immediately, to not be the all-time best NL 1bman.

Thomas - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 12:53 PM EST (#228423) #

He was indeed great going toward the line and made numerous spectacular plays. He was a little below average going up the middle (where 2/3 of the plays are), and completely bailed out on the pivot.

I only caught a bit of the broadcast on MLB.com after the Hall election, but I heard Verducci (I believe it was him) speak and he said Alomar was the only second baseman he spoke to said he never had a runner barrel into him at second base. Verducci suggested it was because Alomar was so quick around the bag, but maybe that lends evidence to support the point he was quick to bail out when turning the double play.

Congrats to Robbie and Bert. For both it was overdue, one by a year and one by over a decade.

bpoz - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 12:56 PM EST (#228424) #

Thanks Richard SS for the P Beeston interview link.

John Northey, Thank you for information I did not know before on the rebuilding of the Jays after the 92-93 championship years.

I am trying to get the historical facts & moves on the team(s) building process.

1) Gillick's 1983 team was the first good Jays team IMO. The Jays stopped being consistently good after the 1993 season.

So this is what I think happened after 1993.

At the end of 1992 Henke left but Ward IMO was an equal replacement. I believe that either Henke or Ward HAD to leave because they both wanted to be the Closer. I don't know what we received for Henke. Ward's injury IMO was the back breaker for the Jays, IMO we never adequately replaced him.
We knew that our older players had to be replaced like Carter, Molitor, Morris, Dave Stewart and a few others.
We still had Key,Cone, Hentgen, Guzman, Stottlemire, Timlin and Olerud, Alomar, Sprague, Boarders and a few others maybe.

Young replacements like Green, Delgado, A Gon1 & S Stewart should have helped out the position players some what. Hentgen, Guzman & Timlin were young enough to still anchor the pitching. The farm as I recall only produced Woody Williams. But the trading of Key, Cone, Olerud and FA departures should have brought in some talent.

3-5 years later more players kept coming Wells,F Lopez, C Isturus and Carpenter, Halladay, K Escobar and maybe others. I know some players like Carpenter got injured & others like K Escobar did not develop. And our Latin talent hit a dry spell.

I suppose our luck changed in the draft.

Also the financial climate changed, we could not compete financially, and had the further misfortune of having to go head to head with NYY & BOS for a playoff position and unbalanced scheduling.

Magpie - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:04 PM EST (#228425) #

I never thought Alomar was anywhere near as effective a defensive player as he appeared to be. Not in Toronto, anyway. While Alomar was an absolutely brilliant defender on grass, he played much, much too shallow on the turf. It's turf, not grass and Alomar needed to back up at least five steps. But he didn't. He positioned himself as if he were still playing on natural grass. And there was no one to tell him different. Who knew? He looked fabulous. He was winning Gold Gloves....

But he simply didn't get to as many balls as he should have. Which by the way was indeed supported by what defensive numbers we had available in those days, all of which said Knoblauch was clearly much more effective during those years. Alomar's positioning resulted in a lot of fairly routine plays requiring a spectacular effort.

But in San Diego, Baltimore, and Cleveland - Alomar really was as good as he looked. Which was pretty impressive, of course...

Magpie - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:18 PM EST (#228426) #

I believe that either Henke or Ward HAD to leave

Henke didn't want to leave. They simply didn't want to bring him back, because they thought they could replace him with someone who was younger and cheaper.... (Don't get me started... oops! Too late!) Anytime you blindly stumble onto a player as great (and a person as admirable) as Tom Henke, you need to get down on your knees and Be Very Thankful. You don't regard such a one as easily replaced. That's hubris on a truly cosmic scale, and - naturally - it was punished accordingly. And savagely.

I still say this team will never win anything until Number 50 is up there on the Ring of Excellence or whatever they call it these days. These things have a half-life, like plutonium. Penance is still required...

MatO - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:30 PM EST (#228427) #

Just some clarifications/thoughts:

Henke, Key and Cone left after the 1992 season as FA's
The Jays as a result had a lot of extra picks in the 1993 draft but they didn't pan out
Cone was re-aquired for prospects and then traded for prospects none of whom panned out
Olerud was basically a salary dump to the Mets for Robert Person
Carter hung around until 1997
During Gillick's tenure the Jays had a disastrous record in 1st round draft picks until his latter few years
Interbrew started choking off money for the draft/Latin America
Though they had some spectacular successes the Jays had a great deal of trouble developing pitchers and as a result were calling up guys like Carpenter, Halladay and Escobar before they were ready because they were so pitching starved

Mike Green - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:36 PM EST (#228428) #

Magpie #425, that's an interesting observation. There is some statistical support here for the observation. Alomar's home TZ runs were noticeably better at age 20-22 in San Diego and at age 28-32 in Cleveland and Baltimore than they were during the prime of his career in Toronto. Also, his road TZ was much better for his career than his home TZ (this is unusual).

None of the numbers suggest that he was really spectacular anywhere, though. FWIW, Orlando Hudson was in my view, much, much better than Alomar with the glove. However, Hudson's home TZ numbers in Toronto were nowhere near as good as his road numbers. It may be that the Skydome's turf made it particularly tough on second basemen.

Magpie - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:44 PM EST (#228429) #

What happened immediately after 1993 was the team's offense simply collapsed. In 1993, they were 2nd in the league in runs scored. In 1994, they fell to 10th. In 1995 and 1996, they were 13th and in 1997 they were dead last. John Olerud and Roberto Alomar never came close to matching their 1993 seasons (not while they were in Toronto anyway) - and in 1995 Joe Carter and Paul Molitor (both still very good in 1994) began to show their age. Those four players had long been carrying the various black holes that had been always scattered through the lineup - Borders, Sprague, etc...

The pitching, with the exception of the total disaster of 1995, actually held it together - they were 5th in runs allowed in 1993 and 1994, 6th in 1996, and 3rd in 1997. Cito Gaston was constructing bullpens out of absolutely nothing in those days, and pulling it off somehow. Quite remarkable, in retrospect. But Gaston couldn't fix the offense, and his own loyalty to the (by this time) non-productive vets who had won him his rings was part of the problem.

Magpie - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:50 PM EST (#228430) #

Orlando Hudson was in my view, much, much better than Alomar with the glove.

Agreed. Absolutely! For sure! Oh yes!

Matthew E - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:55 PM EST (#228431) #

What happened immediately after 1993 was the team's offense simply collapsed. In 1993, they were 2nd in the league in runs scored. In 1994, they fell to 10th.

But the thing is this: they didn't notice!

The Jays' offence in '94 wasn't that much worse than their '93 offence, but the league had gotten better than they were all around them. I think they just didn't realize the extent of the problem, because what they were doing wasn't much different from what had just worked for them.

And of course there was the franchise's longstanding aversion to having any of their hitters draw walks; that didn't help either.

andrewkw - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 01:59 PM EST (#228432) #

It's official :

Cap announcement from the Official Hall of Fame Press Conference at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in NYC: Alomar will be the first to wear a Blue Jay cap on his Hall of Fame plaque, while Blyleven becomes the fourth Minnesota Twins player so honored.

Magpie - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 02:08 PM EST (#228433) #

the league had gotten better than they were all around them.

Very true. So at the time it appeared as if the problems were on the mound, though they weren't...

Pat Gillick is also bound for the Hall and I suppose he's worthy, but he must have been a pretty frustrating GM to work for if you were Bobby Cox or Jimy Williams or Cito Gaston. Never mind all the blown first-round picks. Gillick just loved sending his manager out to compete, in the AL East, with fewer big leaguers on his roster than the other teams. Gillick always loved his Rule 5 guys, even when he wasn't getting the big reward and even when his team was actually trying to win something.

And then there was his perfect willingness to go forward with huge holes in the lineup, and - I dunno - hope it all worked out somehow? It's true that in 1993 a Gillick team that was operating that way somehow won the WS anyway. But that doesn't necessarily validate the approach for all times and all circumstances...

brent - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 05:12 PM EST (#228444) #

Mike Green, I asked at the Book Blog about the defensive metrics they made and they say they do specifically adjust for Rogers Center. However, just compare good to great fielders when they come and go. Rolen, Escobar etc. take a hit on their numbers when here, so I think the adjustment is not enough. The numbers don't give enough credit to Jays' fielders.

Dave Till - Thursday, January 06 2011 @ 10:39 PM EST (#228455) #

My memory may be playing tricks on me, but I seem to recall that Alomar used to position himself at the shortstop side of the second base bag when pivoting. That put the bag between him and the runner, making it harder to take him out with a slide. That cost him a bit of time on the pivot, but it also meant that he was durable. It's an acceptable tradeoff.

As for Henke versus Ward - what I recall was that the consensus was that Ward deserved a chance to be a closer. He had willingly spent several years as Henke's second banana, and was a better pitcher than Henke at that point in his career. If he hadn't been given the chance in Toronto, he would probably have demanded to go elsewhere. Setup men don't get the money or the glory. Having said that, I agree that it was a sad day when Henke was allowed to leave - he wanted to stay, and his teammates wanted him to stay too (I seem to recall reading that Stottlemyre offered to donate part of his salary to keep Henke in Toronto). Henke was (and presumably is) a marvellous person, and deserves to be on the Wall Of Excellence.

92-93 - Friday, January 07 2011 @ 09:21 AM EST (#228473) #

Henke sounds like a real mensch every time they have him on 590.

Mike Green - Friday, January 07 2011 @ 09:27 AM EST (#228475) #

If the runner was on him, Alomar would bail. By contrast, Hudson would menace and hang in, while Hill sometimes does the very athletic move of leaning over and throwing with the top half of his body over the runner and the lower half back.

Many times, a second baseman does not have the luxury of setting up wherever he wants to as the ball is not hit hard enough for this and the batter and runner have average speed or better. The ball is hit to short and the second baseman has to get to the bag as quickly as possible, receive the ball and pivot with the runner on him, all in very short order. Alomar would routinely take the single out on these plays.

Dave Till - Friday, January 07 2011 @ 12:47 PM EST (#228490) #

Many times, a second baseman does not have the luxury of setting up wherever he wants to as the ball is not hit hard enough for this and the batter and runner have average speed or better. The ball is hit to short and the second baseman has to get to the bag as quickly as possible, receive the ball and pivot with the runner on him, all in very short order. Alomar would routinely take the single out on these plays.

I still think it's an acceptable tradeoff: the missed outs that Alomar's positioning cost him were more than offset by the number of runs he generated - especially given that Alomar only had one significant injury all of his career. How many middle infielders suffer major injuries after being clobbered on a double play pivot, or have their performance affected by nagging injuries caused by having to hit the dirt at an awkward angle after having made the relay throw?

I think back to 1987 - one of the reasons that the Jays lost the pennant that year was because Tony Fernandez fractured his elbow after being upended on a double play pivot.

Mike Green - Friday, January 07 2011 @ 01:26 PM EST (#228495) #

I agree. Especially if you have a bat like Alomar's. When one is weighing Alomar's career, it is fair to take into account his in-season durability, his bat and his glove. The way he handled the double play detracted from his glove but added to his in-season durability. It was probably a wash.

Magpie - Saturday, January 08 2011 @ 12:03 AM EST (#228514) #

[Ward] had willingly spent several years as Henke's second banana, and was a better pitcher than Henke at that point in his career.

Well... From 1988-90, Henke was a far, far better pitcher than Ward. Ward wasn't even the second banana at this point. They're not even remotely comparable...

In 1991, Ward pitched very well indeed. Certainly not as good as Henke, but it was easily the best year of his career (to that point). He also did a fine job filling in as the closer during Henke's early season injury (a pulled hammy).

Then in 1992 Ward had a tremendous season. It was the one and only time in their tenure as Blue Jays that Ward actually pitched better than Henke.

Not by a lot, mind you. Henke had an ERA+ of 183 himself in 1992, and saved 34 games in 37 tries. He was six years older.

Magpie - Saturday, January 08 2011 @ 12:18 AM EST (#228515) #

Let me submit one of my favourite Tom Henke factoids (I got lots - who was the only man to win the Rolaids Reliever of the year award and then retire? Tom Henke...)

The Jays acquired Henke as compensation for losing Cliff Johnson in February 1985. He'd pitched pretty well in AAA Oklahoma the year before, although he just couldn't seem to crack that vaunted Rangers bullpen. The Jays naturally sent him to Syracuse to start the season and almost four months later, at the end of July, they summoned him to the show.

In 39 games at Syracuse, he'd pitched 51.1 innings and allowed 13 hits. Thirteen. I remember hearing about it at the time. And you gotta wonder... what took them so long? Did they simply not believe it? Did they suspect a misprint or something?

MatO - Saturday, January 08 2011 @ 12:52 AM EST (#228517) #

The legend goes that Jays scouts had seen Henke pitching in the winter leagues and he'd added a splitter to his arsenal in the off-season. That's what the Jays did best in those days. They weren't great at drafting but nobody was better at finding freely available talent already playing pro ball.

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