Although the jays have been disappointing they are a 9-3 run over two weeks from being back in the hunt or a reversal of their terrible record in one run games.  These things often reverse over the course of a season but will that reversal be in the next 3-4 weeks or in September?  That will influence what AA does.

I agree with Anders that the Jays will likely try addition by subtraction.  That can be difficult to do in-season.  Most in-season trades are end of contract type deals.  However this is also the first season in a long time with no draft pick driven deals and that might influence the market.

I think a move to promote d'Arnaud around the all-star break could be a form of addition by subtraction.  We all know the difficulty for a first year catcher in the majors.  An earlier promotion would help d'Arnaud with next years transition.  While Hechavarria might get promoted I am not sure if that will be addition by subtraction.  Many here were encouraged by Mottola's comment about Hechavarria just needing to recognize breaking balls.  That is the difference between a .230 hitter and a .280 hitter.  In essence Mottola was saying Hechavarria is not yet ready to hit major league pitching.  Hechavarria might make up some of that with his glove but I don't expect him to replace KJ offensively.

Where AA might have some opportunity is to pick up a starting pitcher who is having a down year but who could bounce back next year.  The Jays haven't added to their starting pitcher depth this year, in fact it has gotten worse with most pitching prospects who are close to the majors taking a step back.  McGuire, Jenkins, McGowan, Cecil, or Drabek have not come through to cement a place in the future plans.  The Jays could use some pitching depth at or close to the major leagues.

The Jays do have players at the toughest parts of the spectrum to fill, CF, C, SS, and 3B.  Finding players at 1B, 2B, LF, RF and DH is easier.  But starting pitching ranks right up there on the left side of those lists and that is where the depth problem is in the organization right now.   

More to the point, the Phillies payroll this year is $172 million. Next year they have $104 million tied up in 6 players - Lee, Halladay, Howard, Utley, Papelbon and Rollins. Hamels is a free agent, Hunter Pence is in his last year of arb and made 10 million this year, while Shane Victorino is a free agent and also made 10. For argument's sake, they could re-sign Pence and Hamels, and those 8 players, who would all be on the wrong side of 30 next year, would make a combined $140 million. Heck, they have $63 million in payroll commitments for 2015.

If that happens to any team they are done, no one can stockpile against a run like that.?

As many of us argued in the offseason, several of these cases of injury or underperformance were entirely predictable. The likelihood was discussed often on here and elsewhere. These are not cases of Roy Halladay suffering an arm injury or ineffectiveness.

And, yes, no team can sustain injuries or ineffectiveness to 7 of their top 9 options. However, a team greatly increases the chances it will be in that position by relying upon McGowan, Cecil, Drabek and Jenkins among those top 9 options.

Unlike you, many of us had an issue with this approach. The issue was not with any of these players individually, but rather as a collective.

Ben Sheets, Livan Hernandez are options.   Options I don't want A.A. to consider.   You have Romero and ...You have Romero and ... You have Romero and Alvarez and Cecil and ...................................... and ...

No kidding. I get that they don't want to show close plays at the bases, because I guess that could lead to ridiculous booing, but they don't show ANYTHING after the fact, other than the occasional home run. It is super annoying, especially given they have a giant video board. It's 2012, guys...

I think that in general, people speak with far too much confidence when it comes to identifying pitchers who are especially at risk. I think that by virtue of being a pitcher, you are, by definition, at risk.

Rany Jazayerli is a physician (albeit a dermatologist and thus probably with no great insights in biomechanics) who once wrote for Baseball Prospectus. He attempted to device a metric, PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) to identify pitchers at risk of injury due to their "treatment" (i.e., pitch counts). This pursuit, while well intentioned, ultimately proved worthless. There is far less reactionary screaching about high pitch counts than there was a decade ago. Pitchers constrained to 100 pitches are continuing to get hurt (which is not to say that high pitch counts don't contribute to this).

On the heels of pitch count being the boogeyman, attention was turned to pitching technique. Mark Prior was the absolutely poster child for perfect mechanics and we know his sad story all too well. Lately, the "inverted W" has become a predictor of inevitable injury. Perhaps it is a better predictor than flipping a coin, but I imagine it is hardly a foolproof determinant.

And now, noted non-kinesiologists Verducci and Law speak with presumed authority on the subject. Why are we listening to them?

Mr. Migayi once counseled Daniel-sun that the best way to avoid getting into a fight is to not be there. Perhaps this applies to pitching. The best way to avoid getting hurt is to not pitch. This seems rash and would make for long and boring baseball games. I am hoping that once Professor Hawking has tackled questions related to dark matter, that he turn his attention to the world of pitching.

Chuck, appreciate your flippant remarks. Typical "shoot the messenger" response I was expecting, although not from you.

My comment was not meant to sound flippant. My apologies if it was taken that way.

This subject matter is extremely complicated. Precious little progress has been made over the years to reduce the frequency of pitching injuries or to be able to identify the causes that precipitate them. So when a Law or Verducci weighs in with purported expertise, we all have a right to a healthy dose of skepticism. What is particularly offensive is the Verducci Effect cottage industry, which is a tiresome showcase of pseudo-mathematical analysis done by someone lacking the requisite math skills.

At least he first used Casey J in the high leverage, non-save situation

Not being flippant here :) but as the game was tied heading into the 9th, there was no potential save situation so no reason to hold Janssen back.

Manuel managed just like Farrell does on the road, holding Papelbon back for a save opportunity that never came. Instead he sent a LH reliever out with 5 straight right handed batters due up.

That's true.

However, to take that point it's logical conclusion, fans can't really evaluate any move, because we don't know the full extent of the alternatives available and their relative cost. Fans should be able to evaluate and critique moves, while leaving open the possibility that the player(s) could not be acquired at the cost speculated, by making logical conclusions based on the evidence known. And that's why most people aren't harping on about Oswalt, because it seems as if Oswalt was never going to sign in Toronto. And, comparatively, why Jackson has been raised so often, because one can assume, with the appropriate caveat, that a $12 million/1 year offer or a $36-$39 million/3-year offer would be viewed more favourably than a $10 million/1 year offer. Admittedly, we also don't know how firm Rogers payroll budget was and so forth.

I was on record being all for Darvish, and Oswalt and Bedard were both guys I favored acquiring (I'd still like to pry Bedard out of Pittsburgh) My problem was always with the idea of adding mid-level guys who were not guaranteed to be better than our own mid-level guys.

Edwin Jackson was a better bet to provide you 30 solid starts than any of those 3 pitchers.

It's not Rogers Centre, I'm pretty sure it's in the Umps collect bargaining agreement that MLB teams are not allowed to show replays of close plays.

Dan Shulman goes to quite a few games across the baseball landscape and has said more than once that he believes Toronto has the worst instant replay in the game.

Oh in-deed, as Omar once said.

Just once I want to see Vizquel walking to the plate with Omar's entrance whistle in the background. Omar comin'.

It's also a huge psychological blow to lose a game in the bottom of the 9th or extra innings with the team's best reliever, fully rested, sitting in the bullpen and a weaker pitcher in the game.

I'm not discounting your point entirely. I just don't believe that the risk of the psychological blow of Cordero (or whomever) giving up two runs in the bottom of the 10th after the Jays scored one offsets the decreased win expectancy of not using Janssen earlier in the game, particularly if there's a reasonable possibility Janssen could do multiple innings (or a partial second inning).

Whatever circle, not even Dante could envision a journey so swift and alas, Virgil is nowhere in sight.

Hmmm. An exceedingly odd place to wax poetic over Dante Bichette and Ozzie Virgil, methinks!