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Hi. Here, finally, is the second part of what I loftily call the Blue Jays Minor League Register. Here is info on every Blue Jays pitching prospect I could think of, and had data for.

As before, I've divided this into two parts to keep Da Box's server from imploding.

Links to Part I: Hitters A-K, Hitters L-Z.

Clayton Andrews
Buzz Factor: 4
Gritty left-hander who liked to challenge hitters; unfortunately, at higher levels, the hitters could more than meet the challenge. Briefly called up in 2000 when the Jays had a desperate case of the pitching shorts. Was traded to Cincinnati after the season as part of the deal that brought Steve Parris to Toronto. (You winced just now, didn't you?)

Luis Aquino
Buzz Factor: 3
Converted to the bullpen in 1984, Aquino was traded for Juan Beniquez in 1987. He went on to have an eight-year career as a long reliever and spot starter. K/IP ratios much better in the minors than they were in the majors.
201985Knoxville-AA572.6050083584328220 SV

Jason Arnold
Buzz Factor: 7
To be fair: comparing Arnold to the other Jays' pitching prospects is a bit like comparing apples and oranges, as the other prospects haven't reached Triple-A yet - and, in a small sample size, Arnold's AA numbers are better than anyone else's. But there's nothing good about Arnold's 2003 numbers in Syracuse: his ERA is up, his HR allowed is up, and his K/IP is way down. He could bounce back - with pitchers, you never can tell - but at this point, it looks like he'll have trouble making it to the big league level.

John Bale
Buzz Factor: 5
While high K/IP factors usually mean that a prospect is destined for success in the majors, some minor-league strikeout phenoms don't make it all the way. After failing to crack the Toronto, Baltimore and Cincinnati rosters, Bale is (I believe) off to Japan this year. Had an 0.38 ERA in his final year of high school baseball.

Chris Baker
Buzz Factor: 3
His K/IP ratio indicates that he doesn't have enough stuff to succeed at the major league level. Got stomped in a couple of outings at Syracuse this year. Presumably, he'll only be around until the next wave of kids comes up from class-A ball. 29th round draft pick.
232001Tennessee-AA1563.3728261791622242121lots of taters
242002Syracuse-AAA474.33181589.194132942DL with shoulder strain

Pete Bauer
Buzz Factor: 3
A great big guy (6'7", 243), Bauer was a second round pick, but basically has turned out the same as Baker, except with more hits and fewer homers allowed. Likely will not ever need to convert any of his spending money into Canadian currency.
222001Tennessee-AA685.112121128.214712377110 HB
232002Tennessee-AA6134.42282817720814539312 HB

Willie Blair
Buzz Factor: 5
I recalled him as being a plucky little guy, but he was 6'1". His strikeout rates weren't that good in the minors. Lasted 12 years in the majors, and parlayed one slightly flukey 16-win season with Detroit into a lucrative contract. Good for him. Started his minor-league career in the bullpen, and didn't start a game until he reached Double-A.
231989Syracuse-AAA563.971917106.294103876one month on DL

Denis Boucher
Buzz Factor: 7
Back in the day, the Jays were often accused of rushing their starting pitching prospects. Case 1-A for the prosecution would be Boucher, who was bounced from Dunedin straight to Syracuse, and then placed on the major league roster the very next year. Still, you can't blame the Jays: his ERA in Dunedin was 0.75, and his ratios in Syracuse were good. I suppose you have to ensure that your prospects' first taste of failure is in the minors - but what do you do if a player just keeps gettin' 'em out? How do you keep them down on the farm then? Eventually wound up in Montreal, which was inevitable. Widely touted as the next Jimmy Key, which he wasn't.

Brian Bowles
Buzz Factor: 3
Bowles hardly ever gives up any home runs, and he hits a bunch of batters. These two facts may be connected. He's another minor league closer, which means he's not likely to succeed.
232000Tennessee-AA442.9849081.264136828 HB
242001Syracuse-AAA352.9166077.156344817 HB
252002Syracuse-AAA473.3659059.04643253K/IP down; 8 HB; 17 G in Tor

David Bush
Buzz Factor: 6
The scouts aren't as high on him as they are on McGowan, but so far he looks good. K/IP is not overwhelming, but it's good enough.
232003NewHaven-AA732.781414817341973low HR total

Chris Carpenter
Buzz Factor: 8
It's not that surprising that Carpenter was something of a disappointment in the majors, when all is said and done: his minor league numbers just aren't that good. In fact, his lowest earned-run average at the AA level or higher is 3.94. It's probably best to forget about him entirely, and think good thoughts about Dustin McGowan. There, that feels better, doesn't it? Carpenter, who is from Manchester, N.H., was also a pretty good hockey player in high school.
201995Knoxville-AA375.18121264.171331532.86 ERA in last 7 G

Scott Cassidy
Buzz Factor: 3
Didn't really have major league stuff, but was called up to be part of the back end of the bullpen in 2002 when the Jays didn't have anybody better. I still remember when he tried to challenge Manny Ramirez with a fastball in Fenway Park. That ball may still be travelling. Discovered he was diabetic in 2000; missed the last six weeks of the season due to complications from his illness.
252001Tennessee-AA663.44161596.2781027813 shutouts
252001Syracuse-AAA332.7111116360626486 HB

John Cerutti
Buzz Factor: 5
Some of you are probably reaching for your MUTE button now, as a kind of reflex action. An Amherst alumnus; the 1986 guide claims that Cerutti was the most scouted player in Amherst history, which isn't surprising, given that it isn't exactly a baseball hotbed. Clearly, he's smarter than most pitchers, which is why he lasted several years in the majors despite having only marginal stuff, and why he is on the nation's airwaves today.

Vinnie Chulk
Buzz Factor: 4
Moved into Tennessee's starting rotation in 2002 and had a good year, becoming the R. Howard Webster award winner. Has to take a big step forward, and do it now, if he wants to make it - there's an army coming up behind him.

Stan Clarke
Buzz Factor: 7
Touted as the closer of the future at a time when the Jays desperately needed a closer of the present. He was never able to harness his stuff. I seem to recall that he was rather high-strung and excitable; in his media guide photo, his grin does look a little manic. His nickname, apparently, was "Lefty"; baseball players aren't the most imaginative people in the world.
221983Knoxville-AA242.4926043.13022051only 4 SV; when was he used?
231983Syracuse-AAA032.89330533943457also 10G with Toronto
241984Syracuse-AAA234.1329556.24064655DL twice; shoulder
251985Syracuse-AAA1443.274314117.210613669814 W as spot starter!

Pasqual Coco
Buzz Factor: 5
Looked like a prospect after his first year in Tennessee, but stalled. Resorted to allegedly stealing a teammate's wallet in order to get out of the organization. Now in the Brewers' system, where he isn't doing any better. Originally signed as an outfielder; converted to pitching in his first season as a pro.
222000Tennessee-AA1273.762726167.2154166814217 HB - ouch!

Tim Crabtree
Buzz Factor: 5
Converted to the bullpen in 1994. Unlike many of the suspects from the Jays' Years of Darkness, Crabtree could actually pitch a little - he had a couple of decent years with Toronto, and a couple more with Texas. His K/IP ratios tell the story, though - he just didn't quite have the overwhelming stuff to become a dominating closer. Studied criminal justice in university, and earned an orange belt in karate in the 1996-97 offseason; do not mess with this guy.
221992Knoxville-AA020.953319140413RHW winner in class-A
231993Knoxville-AA9144.082727158.2178115967less than 6 IP per start
251995Syracuse-AAA025.4026031.23811222called up; 3.09 ERA in TO

Steve Cummings
Buzz Factor: 6
If Alex Sanchez was to be the next Dave Stieb, then Steve Cummings was to be the next Jim Clancy: he was touted as a solid, reliable inning-eater. One look at his K/IP ratio suggests that he wasn't really a prospect, which turned out to be the case. College graduate (University of Houston, majored in science), so he was old (at the time) for his leagues. Graduate of J. Frank Dobie High School in Houston.
231988Knoxville-AA14112.753533212.2206564131that's a workload!

Tom Davey
Buzz Factor: 6
Huge, hulking right-handed relief pitcher; at one time considered the closer of the future before Billy Koch seized the job. Did not start pitching until he was in college. His problem: he was wilder than a sack of angry cats.
231997Knoxville-AA675.83201692.21085507214 WP
241998Knoxville-AA533.8743976.27025278aim for the pentagon, big guy

Steve Davis
Buzz Factor: 6
His claim to fame is that he won 20 games in the minors in 1985 - 17 with Knoxville, and 3 with Syracuse. He won two more in a Toronto callup, giving him a total of 22. He threw 218 innings, which we now know is a lot at age 24, and he came back to earth with a thud the next year. By 1987, he was off the 40-man roster. Like so many young pitchers, he never really harnessed his stuff. A 21st round draft pick.
231984Knoxville-AA963.492725154.212379677everybody duck!
241985Knoxville-AA1762.452724154114872107RHW winner
241985Syracuse-AAA322.5066361921734feelin' gooooood
271988Syracuse-AAA10153.293131178166--66130I don't have 1987 stats

Mark Eichhorn
Buzz Factor: 3
Bill James once wrote that he didn't see why more organizations tried converting failed prospects to sidearmers or submariners. After all, what have they got to lose? Eichhorn is Exhibit A to support James's case: according to the media guides, Ike started experimenting with his sidearm delivery in 1984, when he was busy getting beaten like a gong. Did you know that Eichhorn pitched 6 1/3 perfect innings in a major league start in 1982? I didn't, either. The 1993 media guide notes that he is an accomplished impressionist.
211982Syracuse-AAA10124.542727156.2158188371called up
221983Syracuse-AAA057.927530.23682112ugh ugh ugh
221983Knoxville-AA6124.332120120.2124174754can't win here either
231984Syracuse-AAA595.973618117.2147135154spot starter by now
241985Knoxville-AA513.022610116.1101113475new delivery

Kelvim Escobar
Buzz Factor: 7
We are the playthings of the gods, Escobar especially so. Epy Guerrero signing; I believe he was one of the last ones.
211997Knoxville-AA213.705524.12011631callup to Jays bullpen

Bob File
Buzz Factor: 3
Has everything you need to be a quality major league reliever except durability. Every arm has only so many pitches in it, and it looks like File's already reached his limit. It's a darn shame, really. Graduate of the Philadelphia College of Textiles and Science; pitched only six innings in college.
232000Tennessee-AA433.1236034.2291134020 SV
232000Syracuse-AAA200.9320019.11412108 SV

Huck Flener
Buzz Factor: 7
Starcrossed. Once ranked roughly equal to Steve Karsay, Flener battled arm problems, then suffered a career-ending eye injury in 2001 after being hit by a line drive. There were portents: according to Jayson Stark, Flener once chipped a collarbone while flying to spring training when a bag fell out of the overhead rack and hit him in the shoulder. His real name, by the way, is Gregory Alan Flener, and he studied "business curriculum" at Cal-State Fullerton, whatever that is.

Gary Glover
Buzz Factor: 4
Yet another big right-handed high-school pitcher - he is 6'5". For a while there, the Jays must have been ranking pitching prospects by height. Here is the complete personal information on Glover, from the 2000 media guide: "John Gary Glover II...Graduated from Deland High School in Florida." Why is he a II and not a Jr.? There's probably a story here, but the media guide isn't telling.
211998Knoxville-AA056.758837.14122814...and back to Dunedin he goes
221999Knoxville-AA823.561313867052777much better!
221999Syracuse-AAA465.19141476.193103557balks at each hurdle

Mauro Gozzo
Buzz Factor: 3
Gooooose! Gooose! The Goose was a minor-league draftee in 1989, and was promoted all the way to The Show that year. He did OK in a couple of spot starts and relief appearances, but he didn't really have major-league stuff.

Don Gordon
Buzz Factor: 2
Not really a prospect; picked up when the Tigers released him. Eventually became the player to be named later in the deal that sent Phil Niekro to Toronto. I seem to recall that he became a pitching coach somewhere. Or maybe I have him confused with somebody else. Whatever.
241984Knoxville-AA321.7927155.137015304.97 ERA in Det organization
251985Syracuse-AAA852.075101139342143that's a lot of innings

Juan Guzman
Buzz Factor: 5
The minor leagues are densely populated with pitchers with awesome stuff and no idea where it's going. Guzman was one such player until 1991. Had much better control in his first two years in the majors than he did at any point in the minors, which suggests a pitcher who wasn't confident enough to trust his stuff. Often compared to Escobar, which is unfair to Guzman. Intelligent; reading is listed as one of his hobbies, which is unusual for a ballplayer. Did not become a fulltime starter until 1991; was a spot starter in 1990, and was in the pen in 1988 and 1989.
211988Knoxville-AA452.36462845216190unguided missile launcher
221989Syracuse-AAA113.9814020.11303028sent back for safety reasons
221989Knoxville-AA146.2322848.23426050discouraged, I guess
231990Knoxville-AA1194.243721157145108013821 WP

Roy Halladay
Buzz Factor: 9
You could make a movie out of this guy's life, and it would make Seabiscuit seem like a glum film noir classic. In retrospect, I think it's obvious that he was rushed: his numbers in the low minors look like the Doc we've come to know, but he struggled in Knoxville and was promoted to Syracuse anyway. I think that near no-hitter in Detroit in 1998 may have cost him a year or two of development, as everyone thought he was a finished product when he wasn't.
232000Syracuse-AAA235.50111173.285102138bottomed out
242001Tennessee-AA212.12553425262913 G in Dunedin
242001Syracuse-AAA103.212214122013the rest is history

Mark Hendrickson
Buzz Factor: 3
Whatever you think of Lurch, and I've never rated him that highly, you have to give him credit: he has now played at the major league level in two sports. Most athletes don't make it in even one. Last played basketball for Cleveland in 1999-2000, signing three ten-day contracts with the club before finally being let go on January 27. I love reading minor league records of star prospects, because they're so overwhelming: in his senior year of high school, Lurch was 10-1 with an 0.84 ERA and 115 strikeouts. Drafted six times by various baseball teams, being picked in the 12th, 21st, 32nd, 16th, 19th, and 20th rounds (the last by the Jays in 1997). He was drafted in the second round of the 1996 NBA draft, which is undoubtedly why he tried basketball first. That, and it pays better than minor-league baseball.
262000Tennessee-AA313.636639.23251229started in Dunedin

Tom Henke
Buzz Factor: 3, then 9
A totally unknown quantity when obtained by the Jays as compensation for losing Cliff Johnson to free agency, Henke went down to Syracuse and put up numbers that were basically mindboggling. (That hit total is not a misprint.) He then came to Toronto and put up numbers that were almost equally mindboggling. He has a degree in building construction, which is just the sort of practical thing you'd imagine him studying. I still miss him.

Pat Hentgen
Buzz Factor: 6
I didn't hear much about him as a prospect coming up. This is surprising, since his numbers look pretty darn good. Good K/IP ratios are a sign of good things to come. Took a bit of time to adjust to both AAA and the majors, though. Welcome back, Pat - I hope his first start is at home.

Marty Janzen
Buzz Factor: 5
Basically, what the Jays got for David Cone when they traded him to the Yankees. The Jays were so desperate for pitching in 1996 that they called Janzen up, despite his having an ERA of 6.51 in five starts. Needless to say, he didn't do any better in the big time. His minor league record suggests that he had a good fastball, but that it was straight: his strikeout totals in the low minors are good, but his home runs allowed spike sharply at the AAA level. The 1997 media guide informs us that he once aspired to a career in bowling.

Steve Karsay
Buzz Factor: 8
At the time of the Rickey Henderson trade, many people predicted that the Jays would regret giving up Karsay for him. He sure looked like a good pitcher: at Dunedin in 1992, he struck out more than a man an inning and had a K/W ratio of exactly 3-to-1. And he turned out to be a good pitcher - he just hasn't been able to stay healthy.

Jimmy Key
Buzz Factor: 6
The most poised young pitcher I've ever seen. Didn't have the outstanding stuff that other young Jays prospects had, but he knew how to pitch, and he never panicked under pressure. Here's a fact for you: we often think of the 1983-1984 Jays as being a young team, and they were - but Key was the only rookie to stick with the 1984 club all season. Vulnerable to the home run. (I knew I was getting old when I noticed that this guy was going grey at the temples. Sigh.)

Billy Koch
Buzz Factor: 6
In retrospect, it seems obvious: if you pluck a guy out of the minors and tell him to just throw the ball down the middle, he'll never learn to do anything else. Only pitched in seven games above class-A before getting the call. I seem to recall that he got to 100 career saves faster than anyone else in major league history. Was a starter in the minors, all the way; in another universe, he's in his prime as a starter. Did you know that he'll be 30 this year? For some reason, he seems younger.
Blue Jays Minor League Register - Pitchers, A-K | 11 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Dave Till - Sunday, January 25 2004 @ 03:30 PM EST (#80444) #
Please let me know if I missed anybody important!

As before, "RHW winner" means "R. Howard Webster award winner" - there weren't that many of them given to pitchers.
Pistol - Sunday, January 25 2004 @ 04:26 PM EST (#80445) #
K/IP is not overwhelming, but it's good enough.

I think 8 Ks/9 innings for Bush is pretty good.

I'm surprised by how underwhelming most of these players, besides Henke (WOW), were in the minors. Gives me hope for Arnold.
_Ben NS - Sunday, January 25 2004 @ 07:02 PM EST (#80446) #
Sometimes I wonder what the difference between the winners in the 80s and the Jays of 04. Looking at this article, I am reminded why:

Stieb + Key > Halladay

Oh well, we've got time and prospects, two very hot commodities.
_JackFoley - Sunday, January 25 2004 @ 07:21 PM EST (#80447) #
I don't really have anything to add, this is great work though.
_Magpie - Sunday, January 25 2004 @ 11:24 PM EST (#80448) #

Marty Janzen - he had been coached by Roger Maris' son, whom I remeber seeing in the press box back in 96 or 97 and being spooked by the resemblance to his father. Marty didn't throw very hard, did he?

Juan Guzman - whereas Guzman threw very hard indeed. But Juan wasn't a very big guy, and I always had the impression that it took every bit of strength and energy he had to throw the way he did. And that he had to be feeling absolutely perfect to do it. And of course, he needed about five minutes of rest and recovery after every pitch just to gear himself up for the next one...

Bob File - I hope he makes it back just so I can watch him field his position. He's an athlete...

Mark Eichhorn - I was at the Ex for one of Eichhorn's seven starts in 1982. I don't think it was the 6.1 perfect innings; but he did pitch well, was in line for the win, and the bullpen coughed it up and Ike had to wait four more years for his first W. The game was against Oakland, and might have been part of a DH. I'm not sure... well, it was twenty years ago! Gimme a break!

John Cerutti - I'm willing to believe he's a smart guy. He couldn't strike out people (4.6 K/9IPT in his career.) In his BEST season, he struck out barely three guys per nine innings, and somehow managed to finish 9th in the AL in ERA. He also had some trouble keeping the ball in the park. In his first two seasons, he gave up 55 HRs in 296 IPT, but he went 20-8 over those two years anyway.
Cerutti really is a nice guy, and I personally thought his broadcast work was much better in 2003 than it ever had been before. I thought there two reasons for that. Brian Williams, the senior broadcaster, was gone; Cerutti wasn't the junior guy in the booth anymore. And he finally sounded like he was having a little fun. He was always so tense and uptight before. Buck Martinez was a pretty lousy broadcaster his first few years, you may recall, but he got pretty good after a while. So I have hope for John...
robertdudek - Monday, January 26 2004 @ 12:41 AM EST (#80449) #
Steve Karsay in AA ...

1993 (age 21) Knoxville/Huntsville (Southern) 8-4 W-L, 21G,20GS, 118 IP, 111 H, 11 HR, 35 W, 122 K, 3.58 ERA

One of the few young players traded away by the Jays that had/has had a good career.
_Ryan - Monday, January 26 2004 @ 10:00 AM EST (#80450) #
A few names from the depressing years who I found interesting:

Giovanni Carrara: Had pretty good numbers in AAA in 1995, but wasn't called-up until after David Cone was dealt. The official line from the organization was that he was an over-achiever. His numbers in the majors from 1995-1996 support that conclusion, but he later had a couple of good years as a middle reliever with the Dodgers.

Brad Cornett: A non-drafted free agent signing by the Jays who climbed through the system quickly. Had some arm problems in 1995 and that was the last we saw of him.

Edwin Hurtado: Strikeout guy in the minors and was getting rave reviews in the spring of 1995, even though the highest he had been was the Sally League and was a bit old for that level. Came up early in 1995 and well at times. Was shipped off to Seattle after 1995 with Paul Menhart for Bill Risley and Miguel Cairo.

Jimmy Rogers: Spent nine years in the minors with the Jays before he was finally called-up to the big club in 1995. (IIRC, four of those years were in Knoxville). He was only called-up when there were no other options. Didn't pitch well with the Jays, except for pitching five shutout innings in relief against the Royals, picking up a win.
Dave Till - Monday, January 26 2004 @ 10:33 AM EST (#80451) #
Ryan, thanks for adding those guys. I have no media guides from between 1993 and 1997, so I didn't have info for any of them. I recall Carrara and Hurtado, but not the others.

I think 8 Ks/9 innings for Bush is pretty good.

From what I've seen, virtually anybody who is any good at all has a strikeout rate of at least 8 K per 9 innings in double-AA. (Jimmy Key is a conspicuous exception.) To be fair to Bush, he got promoted in mid-season. I think he could make it all the way, but I don't think he has star potential.
_Matthew E - Monday, January 26 2004 @ 10:47 AM EST (#80452) #
And then there was Scott Brow. I don't have his numbers in front of me, but I seem to recall that his minor-league numbers were almost uniformly unimpressive, and the Jays kept putting him on the big club anyway, where he'd get pounded again and again and again.
Mike Green - Monday, January 26 2004 @ 02:25 PM EST (#80453) #
Dave, neither Woody Williams nor David Wells had 8K/9IP at double A. Actually, looking at all of the pitchers you have listed here who went on to significant major league careers, the following had K/IP ratios higher than 8 at double A: Hentgen, Guzman, Carpenter, and Escobar. The following had lower: Cerutti, Halladay, Key, Lyon, Mesa, Stottlemyre, Woody Williams and David Wells.

Looking at the names on the 8 or less list, it seems that if a pitcher has very fine control and can strike out 6-7 at the major league level, they can succeed. I'd say that Bush's ratios are consistent with major league success.

Actually if you combine A and AA results from last year, Bush's and McGowan's K rates are pretty similar. There are other reasons to believe the McGowan has the higher ceiling, but you can't really see it well in the numbers.
_John Neary - Monday, January 26 2004 @ 02:46 PM EST (#80454) #
Dayn Perry had a few pieces at BP earlier in the year in which he showed that there was basically no difference between the career minor league stats of a bunch of very good major league pitchers and a bunch of mediocre ones. There were all sorts of faults to find with the methodology, but it was still an interesting result, and a reason to take scouting data seriously.
Blue Jays Minor League Register - Pitchers, A-K | 11 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.