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Draft Draft Preview - College Pitchers, Updated
A month has passed since the first look at college pitchers eligible for the draft. Now we have an additional month of statistics, plus the added bonus of Craig Burley's adjusted stats for 2004, in addition to 2003.

Below is a list and profile of 25 top college pitching prospects.

First, a few notes on the statistics shown:

FIP: Fielding Independent Pitching. FIP = (13*HR+3*BB-2*K)/IP. A discussion of FIP can be found here. The lower the score the better. Calculations are made on the raw, unadjusted college statistics.

xRSAA: Adjusted runs saved above average. This statistic was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college statistics for park effects and competition.

RA+: Adjusted runs allowed. Similar to ERA+ this is a rate stat with 100 as a midpoint. Again, this was generated by Craig Burley and adjusts the raw college stats for park effects and competition

To learn more about each of the players on the list click on their name for detailed profiles.

The order of pitchers listed below are the same as the original list, but not necessarily how I would rank them now since there's more data to digest, especially the adjusted stats.

#1 Jered Weaver – Long Beach St
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	1.27	113.1	13.6	1.1	0.3	-2.2	78.7	425		
2003	1.96	133.1	9.7	1.4	0.5	-1.0	79.6	268


#2 Wade Townsend – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	1.55	98.2	11.1	3.4	0.5	-0.7	56.0	361
2003	2.20	118.2	12.5	3.5	0.2	-1.4	65.1	284
2002	2.28	51.1	9.0	3.9	0.7	0.3


#3 Phillip Humber – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	1.66	92	11.8	2.6	0.2	-1.5	51.9	337	
2003	3.30	128.0	9.7	2.7	0.8	0.0	54.8	204
2002	2.77	110.2	10.6	3.5	0.7	-0.2


#4 Jeff Niemann – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.58	59.1	10.7	3.0	0.5	-0.7	29.9	252	
2003	1.70	137.1	10.2	2.3	0.4	-0.9	77.6	370
2002	3.11	66.2	7.2	3.7	0.1	-0.2


#5 Justin Verlander – Old Dominion

Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.33	92	13.2	3.8	0.8	-0.5	25.2	171		
2003	2.40	116.1	10.8	3.3	0.2	-1.1	46.6	194
2002	1.90	113.2	10.9	3.4	0.2	-1.1


#6 Jeremy Sowers – Vanderbilt
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.14	94.2	8.5	1.7	0.6	-0.5	43.6	187		
2003	2.50	115.0	9.6	2.3	0.5	-0.6	51.7	225
2002	4.37	101.0	7.6	2.8	0.8	0.4


#7 JP Howell – Texas
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	1.79	100.2	11.3	3.1	0.4	-1.0	61.7	324		
2003	2.52	114.1	8.3	3.4	0.2	-0.4	52.9	230


#8 Thomas Diamond – New Orleans
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.57	98	11.5	3.5	0.6	-0.5	36.2	187		
2003	5.79	37.1	10.7	6.1		 	20.2	168


#9 Justin Orenduff – Virginia Commonwealth
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.53	89	11.5	2.7	0.3	-1.2	35.2	203		
2003	2.27	95.0	11.4	2.5	0.8	-0.6	36	234
2002	1.68	59.0	11.9	2.9


#10 Matt Campbell – South Carolina
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.17	88	10.2	2.0	0.4	-1.0	43.9	179		
2003	3.48	82.2	9.0	5.1	0.3	0.2	23.2	138
2002	2.43	37.0	10.7	7.5	0.5	0.8


#11 Huston Street – Texas
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	1.53	35.1	9.0	2.3	0.5	-0.5	24.6	296		
2003	1.33	74.1	8.4	1.6	0.4	-0.8	50.3	471
2002	0.96	47.0	9.4	1.7	0.4	-1.0


#12 Billy Buckner – South Carolina
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.34	62	11.3	2.3	1.2	-0.1	24.2	166


#13 Josh Baker – Rice
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.66	81.1	8.3	3.8	0.2	-0.3	29.0	234	
2003	3.22	95.0	6.7	2.7	0.7	0.4	38.2	227


#14 Matt Durkin- San Jose St
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	4.88	101.1	8.5	3.9	0.4	-0.1	29.9	132		
2003	2.60	100.1	9.9	3.8	0.4	-0.4	42.6	235
2002	2.75	98.1	7.8	2.2	0.0	-1.0


#15 Zach Jackson – Texas A&M
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.02	92.1	10.2	2.0	0.4	-1.0	45.3	214		
2003	4.31	112.2	6.0	2.3	1.0	0.8	14.7	110
2002	4.77	83.0	5.0	2.6	0.9	1.0


#16 Steven Register – Auburn
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.78	50	8.8	2.5	1.3	0.7	15.8	178		
2003	2.94	52.0	10.6	1.2	0.9	-0.7	25.1	187



#17 Glen Perkins - Minnesota
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.98	84.2	8.8	2.2	0.6	-0.3	34.2	188		
2003	2.91	105.1	10.0	2.0	0.4	-1.0	42.8	217


#18 Chris Lambert – Boston College
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.22	78.1	10.0	5.3	0.5	0.2	23.6	160		
2003	2.71	79.2	10.0	4.3	0.2	-0.5	23.7	174


#19 Micah Owings – Georgia Tech
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.44	83.2	9.1	3.6	1.3	1.0	34.5	182	
2003	3.99	88.0	5.9	2.1	1.2	1.2	27.8	163


#20 David Purcey - Oklahoma
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.76	98	10.0	3.9	0.4	-0.4	50.6	211		
2003	5.20	72.2	8.4	5.1	0.5	0.6	24.4	126
2002	3.35	75.1	10.1	5.3	0.4	0.0


#21 Russ Ohlendorf - Princeton 
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.66	59	11.1	4.3	0.2	-0.8	16.4	147		
2003	3.57	45.1	9.4	3.8	0.2	-0.5	8.3	125
2002	3.08	52.2	8.8	3.8	0.0	-0.7


#22 Tyler Lumsden - Clemson
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	3.9	64.2	9.4	4.3	0.4	0.0	20.9	131		
2003	3.77	86.0	7.5	3.2	 	 	19.6	122
2002	5.28	58.0	9.8	6.1


#23 Matt Fox – Central Florida
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.02	89	10.1	2.7	0.3	-0.9	43.6	242


#24 Michael Rogers – NC State
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.24	96.1	9.0	1.7	0.4	-0.9	53.3	234		
2003	3.02	125.0	8.1	2.4	0.6	-0.1	34.2	139
2002	3.63	39.2	9.4	4.1	0.2	-0.4


#25 Brett Smith – UC Irvine
Year	ERA	Inn	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	xRSAA	RA+
2004	2.02	93.2	8.7	2.1	0.5	-0.5	37.0	221		
2003	3.71	102.0	7.7	3.4	0.2	-0.3	17.2	138
2002	5.31	84.2	7.5	4.8	0.6	0.9


Preliminary Batter's Box Draft Coverage:
* College Pitchers - April 28th
* College Hitters - May 17th
* College Pitchers, Updated - May 21st
* A review of the 2 Ricciardi Drafts - May 26th
* Mock Draft - June 2nd
* Batter's Box Draft Day Coverage - June 7th
Posted by Pistol on Friday, May 21 2004 @ 06:52 AM EDT.
Draft Preview - College Pitchers, Updated | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
robertdudek - Friday, May 21 2004 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#63517) #
I recommend adding 3 to FIP at the end. It then looks and acts almost exactly like ERA. YOu might even call in the three-true-outcomes ERA.
[ Reply to This ]
robertdudek - Friday, May 21 2004 @ 11:28 PM EDT (#63518) #
I like the way J.P. Howell's numbers have improved from 2003. Very nice K rate (the most important of the numbers). Will he be available when the Jays draft in the first round? I assume he will be.
[ Reply to This ]
Coach - Friday, May 21 2004 @ 11:37 PM EDT (#63519) #
Matt Fox looks very interesting. For a young man who was a shortstop and occasional closer until late in his sophomore season, he's come a long way as a starter this year. I'm partial to converted position players when they show promise on the mound (Shaun Marcum is a recent example) and would be quite happy if this guy falls to the Jays.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 12:39 AM EDT (#63520) #
I like the way J.P. Howell's numbers have improved from 2003. Very nice K rate (the most important of the numbers). Will he be available when the Jays draft in the first round?

I agree. BA had him rated in the 40s I believe so it's possible the Jays could even have a shot at him with their sandwich pick at #32.

From reading around a bit it sounds like (among the college pitchers) Weaver, Verlander, and the Rice trio will all go in the top 10. After that it sounds like Diamond and Sowers are very likely to be taken before the Jays pick at #16.

So if the Jays were to take a college pitcher that would be about the spot where they would likely choose between Jackson, Purcey, Orenduff and Howell.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 12:41 AM EDT (#63521) #
And of the 4 I just listed only Orenduff is a RHP.

(and interestingly to me Jackson is originally from the same town that my sister lives in)
[ Reply to This ]
robertdudek - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 01:56 AM EDT (#63522) #
Thanks to the data Craig sent me, I've created a statistical ranking of the top 20 college starting pitchers. Like Craig, I incorporated strength of schedule and park factors, but focused on FIP and a component rating system I devised last year to look at minor league records. I took a balance of the two to come up with overall rankings. The rankings were based on rate stats, so innings pitched was not a factor.

The Top 20 (not necessarily all draft eligible):

Jered Weaver (Long Beach State)
Phillip Humber (Rice)
Ian Kennedy (USC)
J.P. Howell (Texas)
Justin Orenduff (VC)
Zach Jackson (Texas A&M)
Wade Townsend (Rice)
Mike Pelfrey (Wichita State)
Sam Lecure (Texas)
Jeff Niemann (Rice)

Justin Pekarek (Nebraska)
Matt Campbell (South Carolina)
David Purcey (Oklahoma)
Kyle Bono (Central Florida)
Michael Rogers (NC State)
Matt Fox (Central Florida)
Jason Windsor (Cal State Fullerton)
Mark Roberts (Oklahoma)
Vern Sterry (NC State)
Jordan Thomson (Northeastern)

Starters with 40+ IP (no relievers) only.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#63523) #
I've looked at these stats, and I'm definitely sold on one proposition. By the time #16 arrives, the pitching pack left will be pretty monolithic and not particularly exciting. Small sample size warnings need to be taken with regard to 2004 performance alone.

I'd go for a hitter at 16 and maybe at 32 as well.
[ Reply to This ]
Pistol - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#63524) #
By the time #16 arrives, the pitching pack left will be pretty monolithic and not particularly exciting.

But I'm not sure that there's any hitters that are standing out from the pack when the Jays pick at 16 either. At that point you'll probably have Fields, Ferris and Putnam to choose from.

Wouldn't it be funny if the Jays threw a change up and took a HS player?
[ Reply to This ]
_DW - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#63525) #
"I recommend adding 3 to FIP at the end. It then looks and acts almost exactly like ERA. YOu might even call in the three-true-outcomes ERA."
IIRC, the recommended adjustment is to add 3.20.

Howell's problem is velocity - he's an upper 80s guy. That said, scouts like him anyway (Braves once made him a 2nd round pick).

Ditto on Fox, I think he's a sleeper...
[ Reply to This ]
robertdudek - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 12:28 PM EDT (#63526) #
IIRC, the recommended adjustment is to add 3.20.

It depends on the level of play. In college baseball, the adjustment needs to be even higher (probably more wildpitches, steal and extra bases taken etc).

The basic idea is to adjust so that the average FIP is more or less inline with the average ERA.
[ Reply to This ]
_goatboy - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#63527) #
Coach I agree with you Matt Fox is a interesting pitcher. Fox intill this year was the full time short stop for Florida International and he pitched as well, problem was he wasn't very effective at ether. So at the start of this year Fox gave the short stop position to concentrate full time on pitching, and the results speak for them selves with Fox now projected as a late first round early second round pick. It could be interesting to see what the Jays do if Fox is still around when the Jays make the 32nd pick
[ Reply to This ]
_goatboy - Saturday, May 22 2004 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#63528) #
Sorry Matt Fox plays for Central Florida not Florida International
[ Reply to This ]
_JohnnyS99 - Sunday, May 23 2004 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#63529) #
Hey, the Jays got Josh Banks, during the second round. If JP goes the postion player route (very very likely) he can still get first round talent, at #32 and the second round.
[ Reply to This ]
Draft Preview - College Pitchers, Updated | 13 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.