This column examines young Orioles pitcher Danny Cabrera. What can we expect from him in the future, and is this a name the Jays will be haunted by for years to come?
Clearing the Ayers: Daniel Cabrera
Before I did the article on Gerry Hunsicker’s dilemma last week I started to look at Daniel Cabrera and the success he has had so far in his rookie season. But then I got side-tracked by the time-sensitive Hunsicker piece, and Aaron Gleeman did a couple of paragraphs on Cabrera in an article he wrote about the class of 2004 rookies for the Hardball Times, so I decided I needed to bring a fresh approach to an examination of Cabrera.
If he had enough innings to qualify Cabrera would rank eighth in the American Leauge in ERA, and second in the AL East behind the masterful Curt Schilling, but ahead of such notables as Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown. On a side note, who would have put Ted Lilly second in the AL East in ERA when the season began?
Cabrera is a 23-year-old rookie having success in the majors despite never having pitched above A ball prior to this season. If the season ended now he’d likely finish second in Rookie of the Year balloting to Bobby Crosby. The Jays are in trouble, as they’ll likely have to face Danny Cabrera three times a season for the next several years, right?
Well, not so fast. In the aforementioned article Mr. Gleeman made the basic point which any sort of close scrutiny of Cabrera’s stats yields. That being that he’s getting lucky so far this season, based on his ERA compared to the number of strikeouts he’s making and the number of walks he’s allowing. Aaron also pointed out how lucky Cabrera’s been getting in terms of having balls in play converted into outs. Cabrera’s DER has dropped to 74.4% since the article was written (during which his ERA has risen), but that’s still a very high rate.
It seems more than likely that Cabrera’s success will wane, if he continues to pitch like this. But, will he? Is Daniel Cabrera a young pitcher who should find his control soon enough, at which point he’ll become a very scary pitcher? Or is he a mirage having a deceptively good season that will raise the hopes of the Baltimore faithful, and leave them disappointed in the years to come? If he never finds his control what sort of pitcher is he likely to become anyway?
We’ll begin by looking at the stats he put up in the minors. Cabrera pitched in 2001 with the Gulf Coast Orioles, in 2002 with the Bluefield Orioles in the Appalachian League and in 2003 with the Delmarva Shorebirds of the South Atlantic League.
Here is how he did:
During his stint in the Gulf Coast league Cabrera showed a complete lack of control, and was almost walking a batter an inning. Despite that, coaches must have liked his potential enough to give him a promotion to the Appalachian League in 2002, where Cabrera still walked a lot of batters, but it was a great improvement upon his first season. Also, his strikeouts improved noticeably as well. In 2003 Cabrera’s ERA benefited from allowing 15 unearned runs, which gave him a RA of 5.31 on the season. He struck out batters at a good rate in Delmarva, but again his walk totals were high.
Using Jonny German’s minor league averages as a comparison point, Cabrera’s walk rates were always above the league average, as were his strikeout totals, while his K/BB ratio was below league average in 2001 and 2003, and above in the year between.
Daniel Cabrera had received mention on Baltimore top prospect lists for a couple of years, thanks due to a sometimes unhittable 97-MPH fastball, and a pretty good season in the Appalachian league in 2002, where he didn’t allow a homer. Cabrera did have a 2.92 K/BB rate at Double-A Bowie this year before his promotion, but he’s always had trouble with control and I’d put more stock in three years of numbers than I would in 27 impressive innings in Bowie. It’s tough to say with any confidence that he’s definitely improved his control issues, but that remains a possibility. His stats were improved in Double-A and he’s having trouble with his control in the majors, but that could be due to his quick promotion, and the raw numbers could be misleading.
Let’s continue the comparison by looking at pitchers who put up similar stats to Cabrera, while at a similar age. By looking at how their careers progressed hopefully it will yield a better idea of what to expect from Cabrera in the future.
Here is a list of pitchers who, from 1946 onwards, had an ERA between 3.30 and 3.80, a K/BB ratio between 0.8 and 1.2 and a K/9 between 3 and 5 during their age 22-25 season. Additionally, any pitchers with an adjusted ERA (ERA+) under 100 have been eliminated, to avoid results for people who pitched in good pitchers’ eras but didn’t actually do that well. The last ERA column is by what percent the pitcher’s ERA was better than league average.
Now, if you’re like me you find it quite interesting that Cabrera’s on pace to finish within the boundaries of this group, but you aren’t quite sure what it means. I know some baseball history, but I really couldn’t tell you what sort of career Ned Garver or Bob Rush had, or who Ross Baumgarten is.
Therefore, I decided to look into the careers of these pitchers to see how they tended to progress. Let’s group these pitchers into three rough categories, and see what we can learn. If you don’t want to read about them, skip ahead and read the conclusions I manage to draw.
Good Pitchers
Joaquin Andujar – 127-118, 405 G, 305 GS, 4.31 K/9, 1.41 K/BB, 99 ERA+
His career and quotability spawned an award on this very website. Andujar’s career ERA+ was 99, due mostly to a 147 he amassed with St Louis in 1982. Andujar had most of his good seasons after the age of 28, as opposed to before, and his career 1.41 K/BB ratio is better than most pitchers on this list. He seems to have permanently improved his control around the age of 27, maybe due to some mechanical adjustment, and that was a big reason for his latter-day success. He never duplicated the success he showed at 29, and was a league-average pitcher for another four years after that.
Ned Garver - 129-157, 402 G, 330 GS, 3.20 K/9, 1.00 K/BB, 112 ERA+
Garver finished second in Cy Young voting during his 1951 season, which is the one which appears on the list above, losing the award to Yogi Berra. Although he finished with a pedestrian 129-157 record, he pitched for some terrible St. Louis Brown teams early in his career. Garver was above average for 10 of his 14 seasons, and he had an adjusted ERA of 97 twice, despite his poor ratios never improving the rest of his career. He finished with the same number of career walks and strikeouts (881), and I wonder if he has the worst ratio for someone with an adjusted ERA of over 110.
Billy Pierce - 211-169, 585 G, 432 GS, 5.44 K/9, 1.70 K/BB, 119 ERA+
The best pitcher on this list. Makes the list during his age 22 season, and by the time he was 24 he had noticeably improved his control. He would make 7 All-Star teams in his career, and sometimes ranked amongst the league leaders in K/9, as well as fewest BB/9. He won over 200 games, had an adjusted ERA of 201 in one season, with a career mark of 119.
Jerry Reuss - 220-191, 628 G, 547 GS, 4.68 K/9, 1.69 K/BB, 100 ERA+
Reuss is an aberration who doesn’t really belong on this list. This southpaw had a career ERA+ of 100, but he did amass 220 wins in his 22-year career (the most of anyone on this list), reaching 18 wins a season three times. While this isn’t enough to make him anything more than a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for most of his career, his peripherals show he doesn’t really belong on the list. His 1974 season list looks to be an anomaly, as while he never struck out a lot of batters, his K/BB ratio in the next year was 1.67 and it was 1.51 the year before. In the season that qualifies him for the list his ratio was 1.04, and his next lowest single-season rate was 1.17 in one of his last seasons. He never had the chronic control problems of most players on this list.
Bob Rush - 127-152, 417 G, 321 GS, 4.64 K/9, 1.58 K/BB, 109 ERA+
How many 20-game losers make the All-Star game? Robert Ransom Rush is one of them, and perhaps the only one. Rush was above-average in nine of his thirteen seasons. He improved his K/BB ratio as he got older, like most players on this list did; however, he didn't suffer the decline in results the others did. He was still a good pitcher at thirty-three, when he was relegated to the bullpen, but he would only pitch one more year in the majors.
Mike Torrez - 185-160, 494 G, 458 GS, 4.15 K/9, 1.02 K/BB, 98 ERA+
This Kansas native had a career ERA+ of 98. Like most pitchers on this list, which is a difference from Cabrera, he doesn’t qualify with his rookie season. In fact, this was Torrez’s sixth year in the majors and fourth full year in the major leagues, and his peripheral numbers were similar to other years, but the ERA was a full run lower. Save 1979 with Oakland Torrez was usually no better than slightly above average, but he was good in his prime, with rougher years at the tail end of his career.
Right Around Average
Tom Brewer - 91-82, 241 G, 217 GS, 4.37 K/9, 1.10 K/BB, 104 ERA+
He had above average years in terms of adjusted ERAs in 6 of his 8 big-league campaigns, and was a legitimate back-of-the-rotation starter in almost all of them. However, he had a bad year at age 28, put up a good ERA at age 29 in 42 innings, despite 13 strikeouts and a K/BB ratio of 0.45, and never pitched in the bigs again.
Rich Dotson - 111-113, 305 G, 295 GS, 4.71 K/9, 1.31 K/BB, 97 ERA+
After a couple of years where he was about average Dotson strung together 3 good years from age 23-25. He appears to have suffered an injury the next year, and was not really the same pitcher afterwards. One season in there which was decent, but he began to get hit around at that point, which he hadn’t when he was younger. Didn’t pitch in the majors past his age 31 season.
Ted Gray - 59-74, 222 G, 162 GS, 5.45 K/9, 1.15 K/BB, 94 ERA+
Another pitcher who benefited from a low number of hits allowed in the season on the list, Gray had his best campaign at age 24. He improved his K/BB ratio somewhat in subsequent years but the results were never the same. Pitched for four teams in 1955 at age 30, racking up 23 innings and that was all she wrote.
Eric King - 52-45, 203 G, 113 GS, 4.78 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 101 ERA+
Appears on this list during his age 25 year, his fourth in the majors. King has one of the better K/BB ratios of people on this list and followed up at age 26 with an even-better season for the White Sox. He had a below-average season for the Indians the next year and after half a season in Detroit was out of baseball. Interestingly, he was once traded straight up for Kenny Williams. More interestingly, Kenny Williams’s middle name is Royal. Oh, the things I learn.
Mike LaCoss - 98-103, 415 G, 243 GS, 4.05 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 88 ERA+
Not happy to keep his original surname,LaCoss pulled a Danton/Oquendo and changed it from Marks to LaCoss. He went 14-8 for the 1979 Reds at age 23 with a K/BB ratio below 1. LaCoss found control later in his career as his K/BB ratio was 0.87 for his age 22-27 seasons, and then it improved to 1.26 for his age 28-35 seasons. While he never struck out a lot of people, he appears to have legitimately found his control as he aged.
Mickey McDermott - 69-69, 291 G, 156 GS, 5.17 K/9, 0.90 K/BB, 105 ERA+
Mickey made this list in his age 25 season, and would have actually made it in the season before as well, but his ERA was too low. McDermott had quite a low hits allowed total in that season, and then fell back towards league average levels during the next season, with an adjusted ERA of 104. McDermott’s K/BB ratio seems to continually decline from his age 22 season to his age 28 season, and aside from his renaissance at age 24, his results did, too. He was basically out of baseball by 30.
Russ Meyer - 94-73, 319 G, 219 GS, 3.95 K/9, 1.24 K/BB, 99 ERA+
The Mad Monk, as he was commonly called, Meyer had four above-average seasons out of 5 from 1948-1952, and his K/BB ratio began to improve. However, Meyer’s hits allowed totals rose after his first few seasons, and the improvement in his K/BB rate kept him effective for a span. He didn’t age well either, though, and pitched only 29 innings in the majors after the age of 32.
Had a Career
Jerry Augustine - 55-59, 279 G, 104 GS, 4.05 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 90 ERA+
A career Brewer Augustine was also a native Wisconsonian. A more accurate picture of his abilities appeared after his 1976 season, as he had two seasons with adjusted ERAs of 91 and 83. Augustine was moved to the pen. He had another good season in the pen, suffered through another couple of below average ones, and then he began to give up a lot of homers at age 30 and only lasted two more seasons.
Ross Baumgarten - 22-36, 90 G, 84 GS, 4.03 K/9, 1.05 K/BB, 100 ERA+
An Illinois native who spent almost his entire career with the White Sox, Baumgarten made the list at 24, and was out of baseball following his age-27 season. He had two deceptively good years and fell to earth in the years after.
Steve Comer - 44-37, 176 G, 83 GS, 3.14 K/9, 0.97 K/BB, 95 ERA+
Steve had a quite good rookie campaign bouncing between the pen and the rotation, and followed it up with a decent season in the rotation, even if he was only striking out 3.2/9. He then had a brutal year in the rotation the following season and was moved to the bullpen, where he had another good season. He followed by two poor ones; Cleveland gave him another shot in the rotation which he failed, and he never pitched in the bigs after the age of 30. Two very good years masked some very bad ones.
Ruben Gomez - 62-81, 284 G, 170 GS, 4.36 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 93 ERA+
Perhaps the most interesting player on this list Gomez appears to have passed away recently according to the front page of Baseball Reference. This Puerto Rican burst onto the scene with two outstanding seasons to begin his major league career. His success in the first season can be mostly attributed to a low number of hits allowed, and his next season may be one of the most pedestrian to ever have an ERA+ of 140. The rest of Gomez’s career involved mostly moderately below-average seasons mixed with a few poor seasons. He got back into baseball in 1967 for 11 innings, five years after he last pitched previously.
Gomez is the first Puerto Rican to win a World Series game (Game 3 of the 1954 World Series) and his nickname is apparently “El Divino Loco.” That translates to “The Divine Nut”, and because it stems from his supposed courage, it means exactly what you think it means. It’s now been added to my list of favourite baseball nicknames.
Glen Hobbie - 62-81, 284 G, 170 GS, 4.36 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 93 ERA+
An Illinois native who spent almost his entire career with the Cubs, Hobbie made the list at 22, and was out of baseball following his age-28 season. He had two good years and good control for someone on this list, but he allowed lots of walks, homers and hit batsmen.
Tommie Sisk - 40-49, 316 G, 99 GS, 4.28 K/9, 1.23 K/BB, 88 ERA+
Sisk qualified for this list with an ERA+ of 101 at age 25, which was his fourth season in the majors. In his previous seasons his adjusted ERA had ranged from 113 to 57. Interestingly, after the aforementioned season, Pittsburgh decided to move him to the bullpen for most of the year. He never pitched well again and was out of the majors after three below-average seasons.
Herb Wehmeier - 92-108, 361 G, 240 GS, 3.96 K/9, 0.93 K/BB, 84 ERA+
A rare example of someone pitching in the big leagues at 18, he didn’t pitch meaningfully until he was 21. After three below-average seasons he had a good campaign at 24. Had two poor campaigns in the following years, then slogged along at just below league-average level for a few more season. Pitched 28.2 innings at 31 and was done with it.
Conclusions
The first notable thing from this list is that there are no outstanding pitchers on the list. Nobody who fits Cabrera’s profile has ever turned into a truly great pitcher. Billy Pierce and Bob Rush were pretty good, and guys like Reuss, Torrez and Andujar had long careers as serviceable starters, but none of them ever had statistics that’d make you look twice.
The majority of players on this list improved their ratios over the course of their career. Some of these improvements were fairly insignificant, but some were quite noticeable. Some players improved their K/BB noticeably (Pierce, Meyer, King, Hobbie), while others never did (McDermott, Torrez, Comer, Baumgarten). More seemed to improve their K/9 ratio, but it wasn’t as significant as the improvements in K/BB ratio, as only two players improved their K/9 ratio by a full strikeout. Those two were Gray, who improved by 1.12 but wasn’t a great pitcher, and Rush, who improved by 1.36, and was one of the best pitchers on the list.
Most pitchers on this list had a couple of seasons which were serviceable, but not great. They had a good year with poor ratios, based mainly on a low number of hits allowed. When their defence failed to turn balls in play into outs like they had in the previous year, the pitcher’s ERAs rose by something close to, or above, a run. As stated above, most pitchers improved their ratios in the following years, but their ERAs rose, underscoring how lucky many of them got during that season.
Several of them were turned into relievers later in their careers. Of the ones that were some had a good season their first year in the bullpen but then began to struggle, whereas others never put up results in the first place. Basically every pitcher not on the good list was out of baseball by his early thirties, and several had left by their late twenties.
I can’t really draw further comparisons to see which ones resembled Cabrera in terms of their minor league statistics. I also can’t see which ones were rushed to the majors, and which ones spent time in the minors; however, based on the fact many were pitching by their early twenties, I suspect a number of them were called up relatively quickly, at least by today’s standards.
Cabrera is doing this during his rookie year, while many of these pitchers had their similar seasons during their second or third years in the majors, but I don’t think that’s significant. There are some good pitchers on here like Billy Pierce, Bob Rush and Jerry Reuss. However, most of these names carved out averaged careers at best. Even the last few players on the good list could easily have gone on the average list, the only difference being that they had longevity which some of the other pitchers never had.
Cabrera is a name to keep an eye on, but I don’t think Baltimore’s found its new ace with him. The future holds a few bright comparisons, but is filled with more forgettable names with shorter careers than they’d like.
Don’t be surprised to see Cabrera
a) Only have one or two other seasons where he even approaches this level of success
b) Have some pretty bad seasons in-between
c) Improve his ratios, but not significantly (especially K/BB)
d) Give up a lot more hits in the future
e) Finish with an adjusted ERA under 100
f) Be moved into the bullpen at some point in his career, sooner than you’d likely think
g) Not be pitching in the big leagues in 8 years
h) Never have a nickname as cool as Ruben Gomez’s
Clearing the Ayers: Daniel Cabrera
Before I did the article on Gerry Hunsicker’s dilemma last week I started to look at Daniel Cabrera and the success he has had so far in his rookie season. But then I got side-tracked by the time-sensitive Hunsicker piece, and Aaron Gleeman did a couple of paragraphs on Cabrera in an article he wrote about the class of 2004 rookies for the Hardball Times, so I decided I needed to bring a fresh approach to an examination of Cabrera.
If he had enough innings to qualify Cabrera would rank eighth in the American Leauge in ERA, and second in the AL East behind the masterful Curt Schilling, but ahead of such notables as Pedro Martinez, Roy Halladay, Mike Mussina, Javier Vazquez and Kevin Brown. On a side note, who would have put Ted Lilly second in the AL East in ERA when the season began?
Cabrera is a 23-year-old rookie having success in the majors despite never having pitched above A ball prior to this season. If the season ended now he’d likely finish second in Rookie of the Year balloting to Bobby Crosby. The Jays are in trouble, as they’ll likely have to face Danny Cabrera three times a season for the next several years, right?
Well, not so fast. In the aforementioned article Mr. Gleeman made the basic point which any sort of close scrutiny of Cabrera’s stats yields. That being that he’s getting lucky so far this season, based on his ERA compared to the number of strikeouts he’s making and the number of walks he’s allowing. Aaron also pointed out how lucky Cabrera’s been getting in terms of having balls in play converted into outs. Cabrera’s DER has dropped to 74.4% since the article was written (during which his ERA has risen), but that’s still a very high rate.
It seems more than likely that Cabrera’s success will wane, if he continues to pitch like this. But, will he? Is Daniel Cabrera a young pitcher who should find his control soon enough, at which point he’ll become a very scary pitcher? Or is he a mirage having a deceptively good season that will raise the hopes of the Baltimore faithful, and leave them disappointed in the years to come? If he never finds his control what sort of pitcher is he likely to become anyway?
We’ll begin by looking at the stats he put up in the minors. Cabrera pitched in 2001 with the Gulf Coast Orioles, in 2002 with the Bluefield Orioles in the Appalachian League and in 2003 with the Delmarva Shorebirds of the South Atlantic League.
Here is how he did:
Year Level ERA IP H HR BB K BB/9 K/9 K/BB
2001 Rookie 5.49 41.0 31 3 39 36 8.56 7.97 0.92
2002 Rookie 3.28 60.1 52 0 25 69 3.73 10.29 2.76
2003 A Ball 4.24 125.1 105 6 78 120 5.60 8.62 1.54
During his stint in the Gulf Coast league Cabrera showed a complete lack of control, and was almost walking a batter an inning. Despite that, coaches must have liked his potential enough to give him a promotion to the Appalachian League in 2002, where Cabrera still walked a lot of batters, but it was a great improvement upon his first season. Also, his strikeouts improved noticeably as well. In 2003 Cabrera’s ERA benefited from allowing 15 unearned runs, which gave him a RA of 5.31 on the season. He struck out batters at a good rate in Delmarva, but again his walk totals were high.
Using Jonny German’s minor league averages as a comparison point, Cabrera’s walk rates were always above the league average, as were his strikeout totals, while his K/BB ratio was below league average in 2001 and 2003, and above in the year between.
Daniel Cabrera had received mention on Baltimore top prospect lists for a couple of years, thanks due to a sometimes unhittable 97-MPH fastball, and a pretty good season in the Appalachian league in 2002, where he didn’t allow a homer. Cabrera did have a 2.92 K/BB rate at Double-A Bowie this year before his promotion, but he’s always had trouble with control and I’d put more stock in three years of numbers than I would in 27 impressive innings in Bowie. It’s tough to say with any confidence that he’s definitely improved his control issues, but that remains a possibility. His stats were improved in Double-A and he’s having trouble with his control in the majors, but that could be due to his quick promotion, and the raw numbers could be misleading.
Let’s continue the comparison by looking at pitchers who put up similar stats to Cabrera, while at a similar age. By looking at how their careers progressed hopefully it will yield a better idea of what to expect from Cabrera in the future.
Here is a list of pitchers who, from 1946 onwards, had an ERA between 3.30 and 3.80, a K/BB ratio between 0.8 and 1.2 and a K/9 between 3 and 5 during their age 22-25 season. Additionally, any pitchers with an adjusted ERA (ERA+) under 100 have been eliminated, to avoid results for people who pitched in good pitchers’ eras but didn’t actually do that well. The last ERA column is by what percent the pitcher’s ERA was better than league average.
YEAR ERA ERA K/BB K/9 ERA
1 Jerry Augustine 1976 3.30 3.30 1.05 3.09 0.22
2 Mike Torrez 1972 3.33 3.33 1.09 4.14 0.13
3 Tommie Sisk 1967 3.33 3.33 1.09 3.68 0.05
4 Eric King 1989 3.39 3.39 1.13 4.07 0.50
5 Ruben Gomez 1953 3.40 3.40 1.12 4.99 0.89
6 Mickey McDermott 1954 3.44 3.44 0.86 4.36 0.28
7 Jerry Reuss 1974 3.50 3.50 1.04 3.63 0.13
8 Mike LaCoss 1979 3.50 3.50 0.92 3.19 0.24
9 Tom Brewer 1956 3.50 3.50 1.13 4.68 0.66
10 Ted Gray 1949 3.51 3.51 0.93 4.43 0.69
11 Ross Baumgarten 1979 3.54 3.54 0.87 3.40 0.69
12 Rich Dotson 1984 3.59 3.59 1.17 4.40 0.41
13 Russ Meyer 1948 3.65 3.65 1.16 4.85 0.30
14 Steve Comer 1979 3.68 3.68 1.02 3.19 0.55
15 Joaquin Andujar 1977 3.69 3.69 1.08 3.91 0.23
16 Herm Wehmeier 1951 3.70 3.70 1.04 4.52 0.26
17 Bob Rush 1950 3.71 3.71 1.00 3.28 0.44
18 Ned Garver 1951 3.73 3.73 0.88 3.07 0.39
19 Glen Hobbie 1958 3.75 3.75 0.98 4.88 0.20
20 Billy Pierce 1949 3.87 3.87 0.85 4.97 0.33
Now, if you’re like me you find it quite interesting that Cabrera’s on pace to finish within the boundaries of this group, but you aren’t quite sure what it means. I know some baseball history, but I really couldn’t tell you what sort of career Ned Garver or Bob Rush had, or who Ross Baumgarten is.
Therefore, I decided to look into the careers of these pitchers to see how they tended to progress. Let’s group these pitchers into three rough categories, and see what we can learn. If you don’t want to read about them, skip ahead and read the conclusions I manage to draw.
Good Pitchers
Joaquin Andujar – 127-118, 405 G, 305 GS, 4.31 K/9, 1.41 K/BB, 99 ERA+
His career and quotability spawned an award on this very website. Andujar’s career ERA+ was 99, due mostly to a 147 he amassed with St Louis in 1982. Andujar had most of his good seasons after the age of 28, as opposed to before, and his career 1.41 K/BB ratio is better than most pitchers on this list. He seems to have permanently improved his control around the age of 27, maybe due to some mechanical adjustment, and that was a big reason for his latter-day success. He never duplicated the success he showed at 29, and was a league-average pitcher for another four years after that.
Ned Garver - 129-157, 402 G, 330 GS, 3.20 K/9, 1.00 K/BB, 112 ERA+
Garver finished second in Cy Young voting during his 1951 season, which is the one which appears on the list above, losing the award to Yogi Berra. Although he finished with a pedestrian 129-157 record, he pitched for some terrible St. Louis Brown teams early in his career. Garver was above average for 10 of his 14 seasons, and he had an adjusted ERA of 97 twice, despite his poor ratios never improving the rest of his career. He finished with the same number of career walks and strikeouts (881), and I wonder if he has the worst ratio for someone with an adjusted ERA of over 110.
Billy Pierce - 211-169, 585 G, 432 GS, 5.44 K/9, 1.70 K/BB, 119 ERA+
The best pitcher on this list. Makes the list during his age 22 season, and by the time he was 24 he had noticeably improved his control. He would make 7 All-Star teams in his career, and sometimes ranked amongst the league leaders in K/9, as well as fewest BB/9. He won over 200 games, had an adjusted ERA of 201 in one season, with a career mark of 119.
Jerry Reuss - 220-191, 628 G, 547 GS, 4.68 K/9, 1.69 K/BB, 100 ERA+
Reuss is an aberration who doesn’t really belong on this list. This southpaw had a career ERA+ of 100, but he did amass 220 wins in his 22-year career (the most of anyone on this list), reaching 18 wins a season three times. While this isn’t enough to make him anything more than a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter for most of his career, his peripherals show he doesn’t really belong on the list. His 1974 season list looks to be an anomaly, as while he never struck out a lot of batters, his K/BB ratio in the next year was 1.67 and it was 1.51 the year before. In the season that qualifies him for the list his ratio was 1.04, and his next lowest single-season rate was 1.17 in one of his last seasons. He never had the chronic control problems of most players on this list.
Bob Rush - 127-152, 417 G, 321 GS, 4.64 K/9, 1.58 K/BB, 109 ERA+
How many 20-game losers make the All-Star game? Robert Ransom Rush is one of them, and perhaps the only one. Rush was above-average in nine of his thirteen seasons. He improved his K/BB ratio as he got older, like most players on this list did; however, he didn't suffer the decline in results the others did. He was still a good pitcher at thirty-three, when he was relegated to the bullpen, but he would only pitch one more year in the majors.
Mike Torrez - 185-160, 494 G, 458 GS, 4.15 K/9, 1.02 K/BB, 98 ERA+
This Kansas native had a career ERA+ of 98. Like most pitchers on this list, which is a difference from Cabrera, he doesn’t qualify with his rookie season. In fact, this was Torrez’s sixth year in the majors and fourth full year in the major leagues, and his peripheral numbers were similar to other years, but the ERA was a full run lower. Save 1979 with Oakland Torrez was usually no better than slightly above average, but he was good in his prime, with rougher years at the tail end of his career.
Right Around Average
Tom Brewer - 91-82, 241 G, 217 GS, 4.37 K/9, 1.10 K/BB, 104 ERA+
He had above average years in terms of adjusted ERAs in 6 of his 8 big-league campaigns, and was a legitimate back-of-the-rotation starter in almost all of them. However, he had a bad year at age 28, put up a good ERA at age 29 in 42 innings, despite 13 strikeouts and a K/BB ratio of 0.45, and never pitched in the bigs again.
Rich Dotson - 111-113, 305 G, 295 GS, 4.71 K/9, 1.31 K/BB, 97 ERA+
After a couple of years where he was about average Dotson strung together 3 good years from age 23-25. He appears to have suffered an injury the next year, and was not really the same pitcher afterwards. One season in there which was decent, but he began to get hit around at that point, which he hadn’t when he was younger. Didn’t pitch in the majors past his age 31 season.
Ted Gray - 59-74, 222 G, 162 GS, 5.45 K/9, 1.15 K/BB, 94 ERA+
Another pitcher who benefited from a low number of hits allowed in the season on the list, Gray had his best campaign at age 24. He improved his K/BB ratio somewhat in subsequent years but the results were never the same. Pitched for four teams in 1955 at age 30, racking up 23 innings and that was all she wrote.
Eric King - 52-45, 203 G, 113 GS, 4.78 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 101 ERA+
Appears on this list during his age 25 year, his fourth in the majors. King has one of the better K/BB ratios of people on this list and followed up at age 26 with an even-better season for the White Sox. He had a below-average season for the Indians the next year and after half a season in Detroit was out of baseball. Interestingly, he was once traded straight up for Kenny Williams. More interestingly, Kenny Williams’s middle name is Royal. Oh, the things I learn.
Mike LaCoss - 98-103, 415 G, 243 GS, 4.05 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 88 ERA+
Not happy to keep his original surname,LaCoss pulled a Danton/Oquendo and changed it from Marks to LaCoss. He went 14-8 for the 1979 Reds at age 23 with a K/BB ratio below 1. LaCoss found control later in his career as his K/BB ratio was 0.87 for his age 22-27 seasons, and then it improved to 1.26 for his age 28-35 seasons. While he never struck out a lot of people, he appears to have legitimately found his control as he aged.
Mickey McDermott - 69-69, 291 G, 156 GS, 5.17 K/9, 0.90 K/BB, 105 ERA+
Mickey made this list in his age 25 season, and would have actually made it in the season before as well, but his ERA was too low. McDermott had quite a low hits allowed total in that season, and then fell back towards league average levels during the next season, with an adjusted ERA of 104. McDermott’s K/BB ratio seems to continually decline from his age 22 season to his age 28 season, and aside from his renaissance at age 24, his results did, too. He was basically out of baseball by 30.
Russ Meyer - 94-73, 319 G, 219 GS, 3.95 K/9, 1.24 K/BB, 99 ERA+
The Mad Monk, as he was commonly called, Meyer had four above-average seasons out of 5 from 1948-1952, and his K/BB ratio began to improve. However, Meyer’s hits allowed totals rose after his first few seasons, and the improvement in his K/BB rate kept him effective for a span. He didn’t age well either, though, and pitched only 29 innings in the majors after the age of 32.
Had a Career
Jerry Augustine - 55-59, 279 G, 104 GS, 4.05 K/9, 1.08 K/BB, 90 ERA+
A career Brewer Augustine was also a native Wisconsonian. A more accurate picture of his abilities appeared after his 1976 season, as he had two seasons with adjusted ERAs of 91 and 83. Augustine was moved to the pen. He had another good season in the pen, suffered through another couple of below average ones, and then he began to give up a lot of homers at age 30 and only lasted two more seasons.
Ross Baumgarten - 22-36, 90 G, 84 GS, 4.03 K/9, 1.05 K/BB, 100 ERA+
An Illinois native who spent almost his entire career with the White Sox, Baumgarten made the list at 24, and was out of baseball following his age-27 season. He had two deceptively good years and fell to earth in the years after.
Steve Comer - 44-37, 176 G, 83 GS, 3.14 K/9, 0.97 K/BB, 95 ERA+
Steve had a quite good rookie campaign bouncing between the pen and the rotation, and followed it up with a decent season in the rotation, even if he was only striking out 3.2/9. He then had a brutal year in the rotation the following season and was moved to the bullpen, where he had another good season. He followed by two poor ones; Cleveland gave him another shot in the rotation which he failed, and he never pitched in the bigs after the age of 30. Two very good years masked some very bad ones.
Ruben Gomez - 62-81, 284 G, 170 GS, 4.36 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 93 ERA+
Perhaps the most interesting player on this list Gomez appears to have passed away recently according to the front page of Baseball Reference. This Puerto Rican burst onto the scene with two outstanding seasons to begin his major league career. His success in the first season can be mostly attributed to a low number of hits allowed, and his next season may be one of the most pedestrian to ever have an ERA+ of 140. The rest of Gomez’s career involved mostly moderately below-average seasons mixed with a few poor seasons. He got back into baseball in 1967 for 11 innings, five years after he last pitched previously.
Gomez is the first Puerto Rican to win a World Series game (Game 3 of the 1954 World Series) and his nickname is apparently “El Divino Loco.” That translates to “The Divine Nut”, and because it stems from his supposed courage, it means exactly what you think it means. It’s now been added to my list of favourite baseball nicknames.
Glen Hobbie - 62-81, 284 G, 170 GS, 4.36 K/9, 1.38 K/BB, 93 ERA+
An Illinois native who spent almost his entire career with the Cubs, Hobbie made the list at 22, and was out of baseball following his age-28 season. He had two good years and good control for someone on this list, but he allowed lots of walks, homers and hit batsmen.
Tommie Sisk - 40-49, 316 G, 99 GS, 4.28 K/9, 1.23 K/BB, 88 ERA+
Sisk qualified for this list with an ERA+ of 101 at age 25, which was his fourth season in the majors. In his previous seasons his adjusted ERA had ranged from 113 to 57. Interestingly, after the aforementioned season, Pittsburgh decided to move him to the bullpen for most of the year. He never pitched well again and was out of the majors after three below-average seasons.
Herb Wehmeier - 92-108, 361 G, 240 GS, 3.96 K/9, 0.93 K/BB, 84 ERA+
A rare example of someone pitching in the big leagues at 18, he didn’t pitch meaningfully until he was 21. After three below-average seasons he had a good campaign at 24. Had two poor campaigns in the following years, then slogged along at just below league-average level for a few more season. Pitched 28.2 innings at 31 and was done with it.
Conclusions
The first notable thing from this list is that there are no outstanding pitchers on the list. Nobody who fits Cabrera’s profile has ever turned into a truly great pitcher. Billy Pierce and Bob Rush were pretty good, and guys like Reuss, Torrez and Andujar had long careers as serviceable starters, but none of them ever had statistics that’d make you look twice.
The majority of players on this list improved their ratios over the course of their career. Some of these improvements were fairly insignificant, but some were quite noticeable. Some players improved their K/BB noticeably (Pierce, Meyer, King, Hobbie), while others never did (McDermott, Torrez, Comer, Baumgarten). More seemed to improve their K/9 ratio, but it wasn’t as significant as the improvements in K/BB ratio, as only two players improved their K/9 ratio by a full strikeout. Those two were Gray, who improved by 1.12 but wasn’t a great pitcher, and Rush, who improved by 1.36, and was one of the best pitchers on the list.
Most pitchers on this list had a couple of seasons which were serviceable, but not great. They had a good year with poor ratios, based mainly on a low number of hits allowed. When their defence failed to turn balls in play into outs like they had in the previous year, the pitcher’s ERAs rose by something close to, or above, a run. As stated above, most pitchers improved their ratios in the following years, but their ERAs rose, underscoring how lucky many of them got during that season.
Several of them were turned into relievers later in their careers. Of the ones that were some had a good season their first year in the bullpen but then began to struggle, whereas others never put up results in the first place. Basically every pitcher not on the good list was out of baseball by his early thirties, and several had left by their late twenties.
I can’t really draw further comparisons to see which ones resembled Cabrera in terms of their minor league statistics. I also can’t see which ones were rushed to the majors, and which ones spent time in the minors; however, based on the fact many were pitching by their early twenties, I suspect a number of them were called up relatively quickly, at least by today’s standards.
Cabrera is doing this during his rookie year, while many of these pitchers had their similar seasons during their second or third years in the majors, but I don’t think that’s significant. There are some good pitchers on here like Billy Pierce, Bob Rush and Jerry Reuss. However, most of these names carved out averaged careers at best. Even the last few players on the good list could easily have gone on the average list, the only difference being that they had longevity which some of the other pitchers never had.
Cabrera is a name to keep an eye on, but I don’t think Baltimore’s found its new ace with him. The future holds a few bright comparisons, but is filled with more forgettable names with shorter careers than they’d like.
Don’t be surprised to see Cabrera
a) Only have one or two other seasons where he even approaches this level of success
b) Have some pretty bad seasons in-between
c) Improve his ratios, but not significantly (especially K/BB)
d) Give up a lot more hits in the future
e) Finish with an adjusted ERA under 100
f) Be moved into the bullpen at some point in his career, sooner than you’d likely think
g) Not be pitching in the big leagues in 8 years
h) Never have a nickname as cool as Ruben Gomez’s
