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We're down to the final two weeks of the season and there is still no clear favourite for the NL wildcard. One thing that has changed is that the Giants have crept up on the Dodgers (2.5 games behind) and with 6 games remaining against their natural enemies, Bonds, Schmidt & Associates have a decent shot at catching the Depodestas.



Current Standings, Expected Wins, Strength of Schedule ...

San Francisco Giants 12 remain, 84-66, 89.8, .560 SoS (Hou 3, LA 6, SD 3)
Chicago Cubs 13 remain, 83-66, 90.3, .481 SoS (Pit 3, Mets 3, Cin 4, Atl 3)
Houston Astros 12 remain, 83-67, 89.3, .517 SoS (SF 3, Mil 3, Stl 3, Col 3)
San Diego Padres 12 remain, 80-70, 87.4, .441 SoS (LA 3, Arz 6, SF 3)
Florida Marlins 13 remain, 79-70, 85.6, .507 SoS (Phi 7, Atl 3, Mon 3)
Philadelphia Phillies 13 remain, 76-73, 83.2, .488 SoS (Fla 7, Mon 3, Pit 3)

Let's go in reverse order:

The Phillies are out of the race - in a practical sense. They can win no more thn 89 games and that won't be enough if the Giants win at least half their remaining games or the Cubs take 7 of 13 against a relatively easy schedule.

The Marlins need to get hot - fast. They'll need to win 11 of 13 to have a realistic shot, so they'll have to dominate the Phillies the rest of the way.

Padres fans have more hope. Their team starts a 9 game homestand tonight. Four out of Six or better against the Dodgers and Giants will vault them back into the thick of the race. However, they can't control what the Cubs will do. A strong performance by the Cubs the rest of the way will sink the Padres' chances to near zero.

The Astros have charged to within a game of the Giants and host San Francisco in a crucial series beginning tonight. Two out of three is a must for Houston - that will give them a fighting chance to keep up with the Cubs.

The Giants lead the wildcard standings, but still trail the Cubs in expected wins because of a tougher schedule. All 12 of their remain contests are against playoff contenders.

The Cubs must be feeling pretty good after a split with the Marlins yesterday. The only tough team they face is the Braves, who figure to have very little to play for by the time they visit Wrigley for the final weekend of the regular season.

Tuesday to Thursday Scheduled Starters ...

Houston at San Francisco:
Carlos Hernandez v Brett Tomko
Roy Oswalt v Noah Lowry
Brandon Backe v Jason Schmidt

Los Angeles at San Diego
Jeff Weaver v Adam Eaton
Brad Penny v Jake Peavy
Wilson Alvarez v David Wells

Philadelphia at Florida
Cory Lidle v Dontrelle Willis
Eric Milton v Logan Kensing
Vicente Padilla v Josh Beckett

Chicago at Pittsburgh
Kerry Wood v Josh Fogg
Carlos Zambrano v Oliver Perez
Greg Maddux v John Van Benschoten


NL Wildcard Race Revisted | 5 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Tuesday, September 21 2004 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#33950) #
Thanks, Robert, for a very handy road-map to the NL Wild-Card race. There can be no question that the Wild Card has added excitement to the NL this year; otherwise, it'd be down to San Fran and LA.
Coach - Tuesday, September 21 2004 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#33951) #
If the Cubs can't win 9 of 13 against three teams with nothing to play for and the Braves more concerned with setting up their postseason rotation, shame on them. As much as it pains me to say it, they might end up with 92 wins. That's why I think the Padres are nearly as "done" as the Marlins and Phillies, who I expect to kill each other off.

It also leaves the Astros and Giants hoping desperately for Chicago to stumble. Tonight's absolutely huge for Houston. Oswalt shouldn't let them down tomorrow, but they definitely can't count on Backe to beat Schmidt. I can see the 'Stros winning 8 or even 9 of 12 if they can take this series and ride that momentum, but they'll be devastated if they don't.

Bonds, Schmidt & Associates have a decent shot at catching the Depodestas.

It's very similar to the situation Anaheim is in, where they have six left vs. the A's. The Giants have to focus on their division, because the WC will be an uphill battle, especially if they lose two to Houston. Those last three games in L.A. (and Oakland) could be like the first round of the playoffs.
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 21 2004 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#33952) #
LaTroy Hawkins couldn't hold a 1-run lead, as the Pirates have tied it up in the 9th 4-4. There's one out, so Pittsburgh has a chance to push across the winning run. Jason Bay is up.
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 21 2004 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#33953) #
Phillies defeat Marlins 4-2, allowing the Fish only 3 hits. Cubs-Pirates are going extras.
robertdudek - Tuesday, September 21 2004 @ 09:57 PM EDT (#33954) #
Cubs score a run with 2 out on a wild pitch and win 5-4 in 10 innings.
NL Wildcard Race Revisted | 5 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.