I'd give the Red Sox a 50% chance tonight, and a 55% chance overall. I'm not confident in Schilling's ankle . . . at least not 62% confident. One article that I read somewhere noted that Schilling's lost the benefit of surprise: everyone knows what's happening with his ankle, and so St. Louis will be able to try and exploit it, maybe by bunting, maybe by trying to get his pitch count high.

As for the series, I still think St. Louis can win it. Boston's defense is questionable (especially when Ortiz starts playing first), and even though Pedro and Schilling will start the next two games, I'm not very confident in either of them. I still think that Boston will win, as their lineup is superior (and St. Louis might regret the loss of Kline), but it's entirely possible that Schill will lose tonight, Lowe will turn back into his regular season form, Wakefield will have another bad start, etc. I'll still take Boston, because you could easily say all the same things about the Cardinals' rotation.

Ya that was creepy when his ankle was bleeding that last game. It gave me, well... the creeps.

I stick with my pix
The Sox in six

I'm sticking with the Sox in six, as well, and also popping in to let you know that Keith Law will be my guest tonight on the BJADPPGS - it's a short show tonight because the ESPN pre-game starts at 7:30, not 7:45, so call early!

Is that the real Mike Wilner or just an imposter?

I have a strong feeling the Red Sox will come away with this one, as they should on paper, but still maintain my Cards in 6 prediction. I'm gutsy, I know.

Lime that is the real Mike Wilner.

Battersbox knows his IP address and all posters IP address so if anybody posts under a fake name they can and are usually blocked in the future.

Mike what was the story with Bob file being on your show last night ?

I thought he was released and I missed your show last night.

Anybody have any info on the show last night ?

The Fan's updates definitely mentioned Keith Law, so rest assured that this is the real Mike Wilner.

D'oh! I'm not going to be able to catch tonight's show. Can someone let us know what Mike and Keith discuss?

Yep, it's the real me. And as for File yesterday, I'm a big fan of his, and he has "almost cult-hero" status with a lot of people in Toronto who wonder what could have been had he been able to stay healthy. And, even though he's not a Blue Jay anymore, he could still come back on a minor-league deal, and he's never played for anyone else, so he still counts.

Mike Wilner: Never imitated, never duplicated.

File sure had some good numbers in the minors -- especially 2000. If he's back, great. You can never have too many pitchers.

Wilner's on, he's talking with Keith about the late starts of the playoff games. Law doesn't really like the late starts but understands that they need to maximise the revenue and that's more important.

Mike, if you have time to answer this please do, but what do you think of the potential signing of Aaron Myette?

He was very good as a reliever in AAA this past season, and he's a former 1st rounder who obviously has a ceiling. Why not grab him on a minor league deal and see if he can reach it with us? Can't hurt, can it?

Notes from the BBADPPGS, with Wiener Milk and Whale Kit:

- Torre takes his time getting out to the mound; adds to length of games which end after midnight
- Neither can believe that Tony Womack is the leadoff hitter for St. Louis (and the 2001 D-Backs)

Lime: You can call in and ask Keith Law about Myette, if you want. 1-888-666-0590.

Law: "The best defensive stats use play-by-play data, but unfortunately that is only as accurate as the pair of eyes watching it."

Also taking shots at Joe Morgan's take on Moneyball.

Law on the Red Sox: "They don't give up . . . the way the Yankees gave up in the last two games"

On quantifying Defense:

"We're circling the target . . . How close will we get? The best information is play-by-play data . . . we're not mapping the field, we're not using a computer, this is someone eyeballing it. Is it useful? Yes? Is it 100% reliable? (No)."

With OBP getting more expensive, might defense be undervalued?

- Law says it's getting more value now, but there'll always be market inequalities, but they close quickly. Defense might be cheaper, but offense is 50% of the game, and defense is . . . 10% of the total game, the total value of a player. Even if you maximize it, how much of an advantage are you getting? Not as much as getting the most out of your lineup.

Law says defense is about 10% of a player's value, and in many cases it's better to build a better offence than to try to maximise defence.

Law: "There is a lot of concern about the bullpen, obviously. We have flexibility with Miguel Batista..." It sounds like they are waiting to decide what to do with Batista based on how free agency plays out and who they sign.

It sounds like Law is done.

"we've got payroll flexibility, but we have holes to fill" like the bullpen, but Batista makes it possible to go after a starter, and shunt MB to the pen. If Delgado leaves, more money spent on offence, too.

Wilner to Law: "I agree with you completely on everything you just said." Way to play Devil's Advocate, Mike. ;)

We have payroll flexibility but a lot of holes to fill, Law says. Bullpen is a concern, Batista could start or close.

Huh. A grand total of one caller got on the air.

Also taking shots at Joe Morgan's take on Moneyball.

aka Billy Beane's biography.

Can someone let us know what Mike and Keith discuss?

If only someone saw this post, we could have had three people summarize everything they talked about!
Sorry Moffatt -- we'll try and do better next time...

Steve Earle music!! Yay!!

A duet with Sheryl Crow? OK...

Curt Schilling on his surgery, courtesy of cbc.ca:

"As far as pain goes, I'm not feeling anything right now," Schilling said Saturday.

"We did [the procedure] again today and we were not as rushed today as the first time we did it. So [the doctor] allowed the painkiller to actually work this time."

Whatever happens the rest of the way, Schilling's ankle "surgery" is to me the story of this post-season.

I should have known, Magpie. Steve Earle is right near the top of my list.

(something I saw a sideways reference to recently, and researching at this salary database it appears to be true)

The curse of a $100 million. No team with a $100 million+ payroll has won a World Series. 15 teams have tried. 14 have failed. The '04 Red Sox still have a chance to break this curse this year.

(The 15 teams who've dared faced this curse are NYY04, BOS04, ANA04, NYY03, NYM03, ATL03, LAD03, TEX03, NYY02, BOS02, TEX02, ARZ02, NYY01, BOS01, LAD01.)

Steve Earle is good.

OK, 93 and 94 MPH...

Its fine to talk about bunting, but the hardest pitch to bunt is a high fastball.

I read Steve Earl's Biography (More proof students will do anything to not study). It was really quite boring. That is, compared to how exciting it sounded initially in a couple of reviews I read. That said, I'm not a Steve Earl fan, and to this day haven't heard any of his songs.

Red Sox fans must be worried. 1 inning, 24 pitches, and judging by Schilling's sock, it's already Sunday, Bloody Sunday.

[Steve Earle's biography]... was really quite boring.

The actual life has had a little too much excitement...

Matt Morris...when he is good, he is very very good. When he is not...

So, how many innings for Schilling tonight? I'd guess 5.

Geez....some of the people in the sparky thread make me feel bad for liking him so much.... I'm not like those people, HONEST!

He's at 65 pitches through 4. I think he can get through 8-9-1 fairly easily, but the Red Sox should have someone up when he faces Walker / Pujols / Rolen again.

Still, I'll be optimistic and say 6. Especially without any bunts.

Jobu, call me ignorant, but then tell me what Sparky thread you're talking about..... :-)

If me Grimlock were an ump, and a pitcher was about to pitch, me Grimlock would NEVER grant time to a hitter. Why do they do that? Millar deserved to be hit there, even if it wasn't a purpose pitch.

After stinging the radar gun pretty good in the first inning, Schilling has hit 92 once and 90 three times since.

Of course, he worked like this in Game 6 against the Yankees, and cranked it back up again when he needed it...

81 pitches for Morris after 4. Deep into bullpens again.

Good sign at Fenway:

"Of course it's cold.
Hell is freezing over."

Schilling addressed a great many questions on pitch counts and fatigue over at SoSH. Some highlights:

to what degree do warm-up tosses, throws to first base, etc have an impact on a wearing a pitcher down.

They don't. Keep in mind this is from my perspective only, but these are really non-issues when it comes to fatigue. Though I throw over very little anyway, I really never do it much on hot day games, but not for the obvious reasons. Throwing over, that takes time, time spent by your infielders and outfielders standing around in hot weather. They are the ones that you worry about when it comes to fatigue and stuff in hot day games, least I do.

Do breaking balls, changes and/or heaters have a different effect on pitchers' arms?

Different pitches do have an effect on me the day after I pitch. I'm usually a bit more stiff and sore the day after I throw alot of breaking stuff than other times when I am throwing alot of fastballs.

...one of the old saws is that in the "old days' guys could throw 165 pitches a start or whatever because they didn't have to throw each pitch with the intensity that is necessary today.

Which is true, since you could give up a 400 foot fly ball and have it be an out. You didn't have to be as sharp on EVERY single pitch. The game of pitching has changed DRAMATICALLY in the past 30-40 years.

does dialing down a fastball -- throwing it 91 instead of 94 -- help maintain your freshness?

No.

Do you have any sense of what an optimal workload would be and how it should be apportioned, or is the status quo the result of tried and tested practice?

If I throw 135 pitches in a 9-2 game, a game my team leads early and big in, I am gonna feel stiff the next day, bit sore maybe, but not nearly as sore and stiff as throwing 95 pitches over 7 innings in a 1-1 game. The game, score and pitch counts all factor in, and by pitch counts I mean if I have to throw 30 pitches in the 3rd inning with runners in scoring position all inning long, in a scoreless or close game, that's gonna take a TON out of me for later. I always call these kinda situations reaching into the tank. I feel like I can muster up two of these a game if I have too. Situations that in my mind the outcome of the game is riding on. I try and make sure the 2nd time I have to do this is after the 7th.

...When I have real long early innings and have to work hard to keep the game tight, I know now that that means barring a free swing fest and some 5 pitch innings, I am not going to be around for the 9th, so I put myself into late innings mode from the 5th inning on instead of waiting for the 7th to ramp it up.

Imagine if the Red Sox got up to a 3-0 series lead, and then lost in seven. How funny would that be?

Anybody get the point of the graphic that compared the two New England sports teams?

Imagine the Red Sox made bunches of errors and tried to give the Cardinals a win in the first two games but the Cardinals didn't take advatnage of this and lost because of control problems. How funny would that be? Not very, to answer my own question.

Schilling is one heck of a smart pitcher. I suspect Batista really missed having him around.

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but I hope you're all enjoying the fine broadcast sportsnet is using from MLB International over the glitz, and jotls of FOX...Kudos sportsnet!

Don't know if it's been mentioned, but I hope you're all enjoying the fine broadcast sportsnet is using from MLB International over the glitz, and jotls of FOX...Kudos sportsnet!

Is the difference between the teams as simple as the Red Sox not having any easy outs in their lineup and the Cardinals have a few?

When they play in Boston, that's it (plus Schilling and Martinez are a lot better pitchers than anybody St. Loo can throw out). In St. Loo, it gets a little more complicated.

Even if Boston wins this game, I expect the teams to be coming back to Boston, and if they don't, it's not because Boston is a vastly better ballclub.

I have no idea what the record is for Errors BY Team in a single World Series, but the Sox are at 8 and counting.

The 1912 Red Sox made 14 errors in 8 games, and think about the type of gloves they were using in 1912...

Is it too late to start an errors pool, like the ejection pool for the ALCS? And if so, what's a realistic over/under number?

DGriebeling, check out the "15 hot topics" frame on the left of the page. Then you'll see.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
79-year-old Red Sox fan who complained about all the pitching changes is my new favourite colour analyst on Fox.

Thanks Jobu.... I like Sparky a lot too.... and I'm proud to say I'm not quite like that either...

No wonder I had no idea what thread you were talking about though! I think that was one of the first threads I read at Battersbox.ca

Alright Cards... lets get shut 'em down and get some runs

Donna Summer looks better than most women who are older than me...

My Dream; To be a GM at age 28. Me and Theo, both started off studying psycology. That's about where the similarities end. He went to Yale. Me; Waterloo. And he interned with the Orioles at 18.

- Any other suggestions besides interning, and getting a law degree ??

- Any other suggestions besides interning, and getting a law degree ??

Buy MVP baseball. Play MVP baseball.

Buy MVP baseball. Play MVP baseball.

Well, I played Strat-O-Matic when I was a wee young thing. With the cards, and the three dice...

We didn't have computers in those days, sonny.

Fox just a replay of Mays' catch after Jim Edmonds made that basket catch and, although I have heard about that catch too many times to count, I believe that that was my first actually seeing it. Kind of weird, but up till this past year the only baseball I've been able to watch was CBC or TSN Jays games and they don't show that clip much.

Here's a fun game to pass the time. I call it

Which One's The Athlete?

Ok, I just saw a shot where LaRussa is wearing Batting gloves... why in the world is this??? Is he going to put himself in the game? :-)

So the Red Sox have made another four errors while Rolen and Edmunds both contribute highlight reel plays. For the losing team.

Which is making it very hard for a) the broadcasters to talk about how important defense is to winning; b) the agents for people for Rey Sanchez and Neiffi Perez this winter.

http://www.torontobaseballguys.com
I'm guessing the gloves are for the cold, what with hell freezing over and all. Can't have a genius with cold hands.

Close, but you guys are WAY off....

Edmunds has 4 AB against Foulke and has whiffed 4 times. (He's 3-11 against Myers)

Edmunds has 4 AB against Foulke and has whiffed 4 times.

And again last night, and again tonight.

Is it too late to start an errors pool, like the ejection pool for the ALCS? And if so, what's a realistic over/under number?

Pause and reflect on this...

David Ortiz, 1b.

You ain't seen NUTHIN' yet.

Jobu: I'll take the third guy from the left.

I am doing math/business, and plan on applying for a coop position with the Jays once I have some work experience under my belt.

Which One's The Athlete?

I think the Athlete is sitting in the van, tied up with Rope, mouth duct taped shut, ready to be shipped overseas.

6-4-3 correctly indentified Tony Gwynn! Congradualtions!!!

Everyone else can feel free to pick out a guy and make a baseball related joke.

Which One's The Athlete?

Bald guy in the middle.

Cheers to DB and Pistol.... although Pistol, where's the comedy?

I hope you meant DG and Pistol, Jobu.... because DBriebeling is my evil bizarro world nemesis, and I don't want him getting any credit.

Is it really Gwynn? I thought it was the bald guy, being Sparky

Yes it was, but that's not nearly as funny. Such as:

Wow, Ichiro's really let himself go in the off season on the left.

"Buy MVP baseball. Play MVP baseball."

- How about High Heat for x-box??

When the Red Sox win, they play "Dirty Water?" By the Standells?

Wonder how that got started. The Standells were an LA band...

I guessed Gwynn correctly based on one feature: everyone is standing around with their hands in front of them, while Gwynn has his arms wrapped around two people.

Guy on the far right? He's gotta be Johnny Damon, minus the hair. And the bald guy in the middle? He's no athlete, he's the Brewers assistant GM Gord Ash, post-Atkins.

Re: Wilner's BBADPPGS...

what does "BBADPPGS" stand for? I figure I know the BB and PGS parts...

Thanks

what does "BBADPPGS" stand for?

It's actually BJADPPGS, or Blue-Jay-A-Day Pre-Pre-Game Show. I spelled it wrong above.

When the Red Sox win, they play "Dirty Water?" By the Standells?

Wonder how that got started. The Standells were an LA band...

Well, part of the chorus is:

"Boston, your my home"

So I'm guessing that's the reason for Dirty Water

I think Magpie might have been joking. The lyrics include: "down by the river, down by the banks of the River Charles". The Charles River flows through Boston and not far from Fenway.

"Down by the banks of the River Don" just doesn't cut it, eh?

"Down by the banks of the River Don" just doesn't cut it, eh?

Who needs it? You're in Toronto--that's People City!