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Today's question has its genesis in an e-mail exchange between Jordan and I. An abbreviated summary follows:

Mike: Ah, the joys of fatherhood. My son in Grade 11 wanted to discuss over dinner his anthropology project- "The cultural implications of early episodes of the Flintstones". Cool, eh? Maybe in 15 years, your daughter will want to discuss the Simpsons for a project.
Jordan: With my luck, it'll be Ren and Stimpy.
Mike: No worries, the Simpsons will be the Beatles of 2020 while Ren and Stimpy will be the Jan and Dean.

So, our question of the day will allow baseball or non-baseball entries. Describe how a current ballplayer, pop group, TV show of your choosing will be seen 15-20 years from now, using an icon from yesteryear from another activity/medium? For instance, in 2020, Randy Johnson shall be seen in a way similar to the way we look at which pop artist or TV show of the 70s or 80s now.
QOTD-...and baby it is murder | 20 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
_Jordan - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 09:53 AM EST (#11276) #
Things are gonna slide
Slide in all directions
Won't be nothing you can measure anymore....

Here are my entries in the Animation Division:

The Simpsons = The Rolling Stones (early brilliance; long, drawn-out decline)
Family Guy = The Doors (huge impact, then cut short)
Duckman = Sex Pistols (crude, edgy, hastily assembled, great; quick decline)
South Park = Beastie Boys (when they're good, there's none better)
King of the Hill = Garth Brooks (I never did get country)
The Critic = Leonard Cohen (great lyrics, not enough action)
_Daryn - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 10:09 AM EST (#11277) #
Althetics Division, Single A...

Joe Morgan => Archie Bunker (for making up words, and saying so often he actually thinks they are real)

Allan Iverson => Kid Dynomite, J.J. what's-his-name (all attitude, no content)

Arena Football => Roller Derby... (too easy)

WWF/WWE => Grand Prix Wrestling (also too easy)

NHL Hockey => Field Hockey (was one a big deal, but no one plays it now)

Sammy Sosa, Mark McGuire, Barry Bonds, => Different Strokes, (popular with everyone, lots of media attention, .. turns out they were all on drugs)
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 10:26 AM EST (#11278) #
The Simpsons = The Rolling Stones (early brilliance; long, drawn-out decline)

So, let's see that would make this about 1976...what would the current equivalent of boogeying with Margaret Trudeau be? Somehow I just can't see Matt Groening praying with Laura Bush. It's a fine analogy though, Jordan.

Carlos Delgado of 2020= the Mark Knopfler of today? (fine career, relatively unheralded, position switch in mid-stream?)
Mike Green - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 10:35 AM EST (#11279) #
And, of course, 1,000 points to Jordan for identifying the song reference in the title- Leonard Cohen's "The Future". Keep those points stored safely because 1 million points today might be worth 1,000 then :).
_Jobu - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 12:47 PM EST (#11280) #
Family Guy = The Doors (huge impact, then cut short)

Well, let's hope that next year's Family Guy comeback is alot more successful that the Sans-Morrison Doors comeback.
_Jordan - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 12:52 PM EST (#11281) #
That's exactly what's got me worried....I don't have very high hopes for the new Family Guy episodes. I hope I'm wrong.
_Jordan - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 12:58 PM EST (#11282) #
You and me both Jordan.

On the plus side it seems all the voice talent has returned, but I don't know how many of the original writers they brought back, which would be key.

This also reminds me of the greatest non-Simpsons cartoon series I have ever seen called Clone High. Smart, Hillarious, and as Zany as Kruck is rotund. What would be the baseball equivalent of best guy you never heard of?
_Jobu - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 12:59 PM EST (#11283) #

Yeah, that last post was me. I'm quite tired as you can tell... Sorry.
_John Northey - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 01:39 PM EST (#11285) #
Hmm. How will current Jays be remembered?

Halladay = Dave Stieb = very good but not HOF level

Delgado = George Bell/Jesse Barfield = Personality like Barfield in that no one hates him but nothing that draws you to him either, player like Bell in being the best the Jays had at the time but couldn't push them to the WS

Hudson = Damaso Garcia = All star level, but never a Star like Alomar

Hinske = Kelly Gruber = Looked good for awhile, tons of hope, then nothing

Wells = ? = Hard to say, like Moseby was hyped early then delivered for awhile is possible, could be like McGriff-seen as an excellent player but never really appreciated fully, or could be the best Jay or could be totally forgotten if he drops off this year to levels Hinske hit.

Rios = ? = Lets hope he isn't another Sil Campusano, tons of hype but doesn't live up to it. 286/338/383 isn't that good but the promise is there for more.

Adams = Griffen or Fernandez = great at times, annoying at times, currently looks to be on the Fernandez track of lots of hype then delivers, but could end up like Griffen, lots of hype, doesn't hit, gets replaced by better prospect.

Cat = Rance Mulliniks = good guy, good platoon player, loved him here but never a star

Lilly = Doyle Alexander = Very good for the Jays while here, comes back to haunt shortly after being traded for a good prospect

Only Delgado and Halladay having names that will be recognized by new fans 15-20 years from now ala Bell and Stieb. Because while us old timers all remember the other names I listed I bet anyone born in the 80's or later doesn't.
_Tyler - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 01:56 PM EST (#11286) #
I've gotta like Doc's chances to end up being remembered as better than Stieb. Stieb had so many innings piled on him at a young age-Doc was probably lucky that he had to bounce around a bit before settling in as a Major Leaguer, as it may well have saved some wear on his arm. Assuming last year was an aberration, I like his chances to end up topping Stieb's 170+ wins.

I read something this summer about how pitchers who end up winning 300 games don't usually have as many wins as you'd expect by age 30. I'm trying to find the article, but for some reason it's stuck in my head that no pitcher to win 300 had 150 by age 30, or it hadn't happened in a long time or something. I think it's too early to say yet how Doc will be remembered.
_John Northey - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 05:26 PM EST (#11287) #
Hmm... good question on the wins by 30 thing. Basing it on wins by the year they turned 30 (using a basic query in the Lahman database, 2004 is now in it at for free) Players born since 1920
NamePre-30Total Wins
Warren Spahn86363
Steve Carlton117329
Roger Clemens134328
Don Sutton139324
Nolan Ryan122324
Phil Niekro31318
Gaylord Perry60314
Tom Seaver135311
Greg Maddux150305
Early Wynn83300

Only Maddux made it 1/2 way by 30.

Here are the guys who made it to 150 by 30 but not to 300 lifetime.

NamePre-30Total Wins
Hal Newhouser185207
Catfish Hunter184224
Don Drysdale164209
Robin Roberts160286
Bert Blyleven156287
Dwight Gooden154194
Milt Pappas150209

Hmm. Seems that getting off to a very fast start doesn't always get you to the HOF. Blyleven, Gooden, and Pappas are all still waiting, with only Blyleven seen as likely to make it someday. Good call Tyler.
_John Northey - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 05:40 PM EST (#11288) #
Thinking of Halladay I decided to run that query only for players who spent time in Toronto.

Only Roger Clemens, Joe Coleman, Frank Viola, Jack Morris, and Dave Stieb reached 100 wins pre-30 with just Stieb spending that time in Toronto. Coleman had 133 pre-30 and just 9 more after that.

For win leaders for pitchers who played in Toronto pre-30 we get...

David Wells - 212 wins (best ever for a Toronto developed player) with just 47 pre-30, all in Toronto.

David Cone - 194 wins, 84 pre-30 (4 in TO)

Jimmy Key - 186 wins, 87 pre-30 (all in TO)

Dave Stieb - 176 wins, 102 pre-30 (all in TO)

Al Leiter - 155 wins, 22 pre-30 (15 in TO)
Halladay is 17th on this list - 67 wins all pre-30 all in TO.

So if Halladay has 20 wins each of the next 5 years he will still be shy of Stieb by 8 wins for the Blue Jay all time lead (Stieb won once in Chicago). Another way to put it is 7 years of 15 wins a season to tie Stieb. As good as Halladay has been he still has a way to go to reach Stieb for the top lifetime Blue Jay pitcher (no matter how good those two years of Clemens were Stieb still is tops lifetime in TO).

Btw, #2 in wins for TO is Clancy at 128.
_John Northey - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 05:47 PM EST (#11289) #
Weird thought for the day... David Wells now has enough wins to become a serious HOF candidate even with his 4.03 ERA and 110 ERA+

He could become the first Toronto developed player to make the HOF.

3 time all-star, ALCS MVP in 98, win leader in 2000, rare player as evidenced by his most similar pitchers list (903 leads, scores sub-900 indicate a rare player). Most similar through 41 list includes 4 hall of famers. Was a top fan favorite in Yankee Stadium so he won't be forgotten by the media.

I'm not arguing he would be a good choice for the Hall, but he is moving into the potential Hall list now. 3 more decent years of 13 wins each and he is up to 250 wins. Not likely but...
_Will aka Reagan - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 10:00 PM EST (#11290) #
Michael Jordan will be the Elvis of 2020.

Rickey Williams will be the Cat Steevens.

Brady Anderson will be the Troggs.

Randy Johnson, meet Johnny Cash.

Greg Maddux, meet Bob Dylan.

Kobe Bryant, Paul Simon (I really hope it's actually Dianna Ross.)


Scottie Pippen, Art Garfunkel
_Will aka RCS - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 10:01 PM EST (#11291) #
David Wells over Blyleven? I think I just shat myself.
_Will aka RCS - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 10:01 PM EST (#11292) #
Sorry, I never thought that would get through unchanged. Many apologies.
_John Northey - Monday, December 06 2004 @ 11:29 PM EST (#11293) #
Wells over Blyleven? Could happen. Blyleven will be off the ballot in 2013. Wells will probably first get there around 2010-2012. Once Blyleven is off the ballot the last of the 280 win pitchers will be gone leaving just Jack Morris (until 2014) for Wells to be compared to.

From this era (and retiring within the next 5 years) we'll have no-brainers (ie: one ballot and gone) in Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, Randy Johnson. David Wells falls into the next category with Mussina (voters will put them in the same bucket I'm betting), and _maybe_ Moyer. Schilling will be an interesting case if his ankle is so wrecked he can't come back next year, and might only have a few left or he could hold on for long enough to become a no-brainer. Pedro Martinez is a no-brainer, but needs a few more years to become that in voters minds (never overestimate the intellegence of baseball writers) and could have 5-10 left if he can stay somewhat healthy. After that I run out of ones to vote for above 150 wins (Andy Pettitte gets honourable mention).

Blyleven suffered because he has shared the ballot with (at different times) similar win total pitchers in John, Kaat, Morris, Martinez, and Tanana. while coming in just after Jenkins and paralleling Ryan. This gave voters someone to compare him with and with the high loss totals Blyleven lost out. By comparison Wells is 212-136 which is comparable to Moose at 211-119 and Moose has never won 20 or done spectacular in the playoffs or been accused of having a personality.

If the retiring of Clemens, Maddux, Glavine, and Johnson hit just right, with Wells outlasting a couple of them then Wells could sneak in on a weak year. Especially if he has 2-4 more 10-15 win seasons in him. Wells needs a lot to make it, but it is no longer a silly concept. ::shakes head:: To think he did almost all of it after Cito wanted him released and Pat Gillick (possible HOF executive) did the release. Btw, he has 8 seasons (or parts of) in Toronto vs 4 in NY and 2 1/2 in Detroit. 4 more in NY and I'd bet on him getting in.
_Mick - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 12:49 AM EST (#11294) #
David Wells = Mickey Lolich.

In oh so many ways.
_Magpie - Tuesday, December 07 2004 @ 11:21 AM EST (#11295) #
David Wells = Mickey Lolich

Bill James noticed the same thing:

"Lolich was the David Wells of the 1970s, a fat, motorcycle-riding lefty who was... very heady on the mound. He was friendlier than Wells, I think... he seemed like a friendly fat uncle, rather than kind of a fat sour neighbour with big dogs."

Yeah, that's Boomer. I've lived next door to guys like that...
QOTD-...and baby it is murder | 20 comments | Create New Account
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