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TSN reports that the Jays have dismissed hitting coach Mike Barnett.

His replacement will be current first base coach Mickey Brantley, who did such a fine job as interim hitting coach when Barney was unable to join the team in the season's early going.

Can the enthusiastic, passionate Brantley coax more power and more production out of the Jays' currently slap-happy lineup? What do you think?

Jays No Longer Love Barney | 147 comments | Create New Account
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Rob - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#113537) #
This is...unexpected, to say the least. Jeff Blair had this rumour in a sidebar to his story a while back, but I figured it didn't have any legs. I'm not sure what I think of this firing right now -- when Tosca and Patterson were let go, I had some definite thoughts. Now, nothing comes to mind.

So who coaches first base? Whitt?
Original Ryan - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#113538) #
Moving my post from the other thread:

Last season J.P. made some comments that seemed to imply some dissatisfaction with the way the hitters were being handled, so it surprised me when the Blue Jays retained Barnett in the offseason.

Since there was no mention in the Jays press release of who will become the new first base coach, I'm assuming the team hasn't decided on one just yet.
jsut - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#113539) #
I just hope they didn't do the same thing to him they did to Tosca last year. Though it's an off day, so they couldn't do it after a game i guess.

Still, it seems like odd timing.
VBF - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#113540) #
The timing strikes me as odd. Yes the Jays' hitting is on a cold streak but so early in the season?

Personally, I liked Barney, but I also look forward to this change as well. Should be interesting to see how the hitting will respond.
Anders - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#113542) #
I think this is probably got something to do with the approach the Jays have been taking at the plate, which has been decidedly not patient. I seem to recall a game about a week ago (Texas? is which JP was on tv/radio speaking about how in this particular game the Jays needed to take pitches and work the count. As it so happened they were swinging at everything and making Pedro Astacio or someone of the like look like Pedro Martinez.
the shadow - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#113543) #
I was surprised that Barnett survived last seasons late coaching dismissals, this team consistently hits to many ground balls
Dave Till - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#113544) #
The timing seems strange to me too. I guess the front office liked what Brantley was doing while Barnett was away, but wanted to give Barnett another chance. When the Jays stopped hitting on Barnett's watch, it was time to give him the heave-ho.

I sometimes wonder whether even the best of hitting coaches is doomed to failure eventually. Each hitting coach usually can spot one or two things that can help a particular hitter. When the pitchers adjust to the hitters' adjustments, the hitting coach is stuck, as he's used up all of his bag of tricks. Maybe this is what happened with Barnett.
Mike Green - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#113545) #
My impression is that it is more of a cumulative judgment- too many young hitters have not made the progress that management expected. If it is only one or two, the responsibility is probably mostly assigned to the player. If it is many, the responsibility is mostly assigned to the hitting coach.

Rios, Adams, Hudson, Wells, Hinske and later Gross and Hill are the markers for Mickey Brantley.
Mike D - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#113546) #
I think Dave Till is exactly right, as usual. It wasn't just the push factor of the recent slump; it was also the pull factor of Brantley's superb fill-in job.

Then again, there ought not to have been any reason the two of them couldn't have co-existed...
Fawaz - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#113547) #
I don't know what to make of this. Could those first few games in which the bats thrived without him really have cost him his job? Before the last game, the Jays were getting hits, just not XB-hits. In my opinion, that's a result of roster construction, not coaching, as everyone (with the exception of Koskie, who's still dinged a few out) is doing about what we expected power-wise. The other concern is k/bb, and this may be the most likely culprit.

Sean McAdam has a bit on the ESPN baseball page about how moving Batista to the pen seems to be a good move. I, like many, am less convinced. I'd rather let him start and not have both Towers and Chacin in the rotation. If only we could combine Towers' head and heart with Batista's arm...
Ron - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#113548) #
Very odd timing.

Barney's only coached a few games this season. He got a contract extension last season so it's obvious JP liked what he saw or he would have went in another direction.

Why fire Barney only after a few games? It's hard to judge from such a small sample size.

I would be interested in hearing what Barney has to say.

Jordan - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#113549) #
I'm trying to think of a reason why Barnett wasn't fired at the end of last season along with Gil Patterson -- enough people around here were asking at the time why he was given another shot (I was leading the charge, IIRC). Part of it might be that the Jays looked back at the team's powerful 2003 offence and decided Barnett deserved a mulligan for 2004. Part of it might be that they didn't want to clear him out earlier when he was having eye surgery. Either of these are valid reasons.

What I don't understand is why Barnett was given fewer than 20 games this year to make his case. Even with Vernon Wells off to his usual lousy start and cleanup hitter Corey Koskie still scuffling, the Jays are 6th in the AL in runs scored today and 8th in OPS. Everyone knew, coming into the season, that the Jays' offence would have to scratch for runs -- the much-ballyhooed "small ball." Well, the Jays are 2nd-last in the AL with 3 stolen bases (against 4 caught-stealings), ahead of only Oakland. I don't think that 7 total SB attempts in the first 20 games is Mike Barnett's fault.

Mickey Brantley was quite clearly added to the coaching staff this year as Barnett's heir apparent, much the same as Ricciardi shadowed Buck Martinez with Carlos Tosca once upon a time (and, in a nice little table-turn, Tosca with John Gibbons). Whatever else one might think of this approach to personnel management, it certainly hasn't led to stellar results from the men under pressure.

Brantley will probably be a fine addition -- I recall hearing good things about his coaching abilities, but then again, every big-league coach has at least one successful stop on his career itinerary. And I sure would like to have seen what (if anything) Brantley could have done with Josh Phelps and Jayson Werth. But for the moment, I'm more interested in what Brantley can do with Alex Rios, who is the team's one star hitting prospect whose career can't be allowed to stall out. Gabe Gross will have to do better in his third promotion to the bigs as well, but Rios has now had almost one full season under his belt, and he looks like the same hitter today as he did when he first arrived. The Jays can't keep bringing interesting young hitters to the majors only to watch them flame out. If Barnett was fired primarily for Rios' lack of progress, then that's another point in defence of the move.

But I've gotta say, I don't like these creeping signs of deck-chair shuffling. From the start of spring training until now, Justin Speier has lost his job as closer, Brandon League has been sent down to Syracuse in an uncertain capacity, and Mike Barnett has been judged the wrong man to be the hitting coach. I don't know what the players think of this -- and their opinions are the only ones that matter -- but it doesn't breed a ton of confidence from this corner.
Ducey - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#113550) #
Whoa...obviously some internal stuff (ie. the fans would not know about) would play a big factor in the decision. From the outside I was surprised last year that they turfed the pitching coach and not Barney as the hitting was terrible last year.

Last year I was concerned about Hinske's continued struggles, the inablility to sort out Phelps, Well's early season poor pitch selection, Rios' satisfaction to hit the ball on the ground and even Woodwards inability to hit even as an average SS. After Barnett was rehired I though well maybe he was just doing as good as anyone could with some "challenging" players. Apparently not.

Is it possible this was just the remnants of the Tosca purge?

Can't say I am really upset about it (other than a good guy getting fired) as the team has struggled offensively.

The list of former employees still on the payroll keeps getting longer (w/ Koch, Ligtenberg)
uglyone - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#113551) #
As was mentioned, I think the real question here is why Barnett was kept on after last year at all.

It could easily have been something like Gibbons pulling for Barnett to stay, and J.P. going against his better judgement and being convinced otherwise.

You've got to think Barnett's been on the bubble for a while....and the strikeouts lately have been getting silly.

Nigel - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#113552) #
At the end of the day, my guess (what can it be other than that?) is that the combination of a lack of progress of the young hitters and, if I remember correctly, Gibbons' connection to Brantley brought this about. I can't say that I've been impressed with Barnett's results but, as others have said, he didn't have the best talent to work with.

I agree with Jordan that this is another move that makes me worried that management is beginning to lose the thread. What could have happened in 20 games to make management change its mind from the offseason, when they offered the extension?
Wildrose - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#113553) #
Big news. I can't say that I'm totally unhappy with this move. Barney seemed like a nice enough fellow, but at some point you have to get the players to buy into your program . Since August of 2003 this team has not really hit all that well.

I think baseball is a game of making constant re-adjustments to stay ahead of your competition. Frankly during his watch Hinske, Wells, Phelps, Rios, and Adams have all had initial success, but then have regressed. He seems to have had more success with rejuvenating older veteran hitters, such as Myers, Zaun, and Menninchino then he did with the young guys. For whatever reason the young hitters have been unable to stay ahead of the development curve.
Gerry - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#113554) #
A lot of comments here are looking at it from the top down, hitters stop hitting, management unhappy, etc. But could it have come from the bottom up? Remember Barney was on the shelf at the start of the season with his eye issues. The hitters worked with Brantley for a couple of weeks until Barney came back. Maybe some of the hitters said to JP that Brantley was making more sense, or helped them better than Barney.
Andrew K - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#113556) #
Well, whatever the reason for his going I wish the guy good luck in hooking on somewhere else. He was never a pro player, so he won't be ultra-rich. He's got two kids to keep, so let's hope he is taken care of by baseball.

I'd guess -- and that's all we can do, here -- that Rios was the reason. His value is dropping by the day at the moment. It's no good having a decent farm system if the people it produces stagnate. Let's hope for better results under Brantley.
JayWay - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:33 PM EDT (#113557) #
J.P On the FAN NOW (5:33 est) with McCown.
Chuck - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#113558) #
So who coaches first base?

Yes, who's on first.

What? We're not doing the bit?

Rob - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#113559) #
Who does not coach first base, though. Who plays first base. :)
mistermike - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#113560) #
Another guy the Jays are paying NOT to be on this team. That's especially alarming considering the Jays renewed Barnett's contract heading into this season.

So when does the magnifying glass swing to JP Ricciardi?

JayWay - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#113561) #
I took notes during J.P's interview. Here's what I got...

- Thinks we’re better than a middle of the road hitting team.

- Hopes a different voice will bring us better results.

-Had qualms about him last fall, such as...
o Situational hitting.
o Pitch selection.
o Different things that they addressed last year.

- Felt he was deserving of another chance, but have come to realize they are seeing a lot of the same things they worried about last year.

- The players weren’t really listening to Mike anymore; or at least they needed a different voice in there to really get the players attention since what Mike was saying wasn’t working.

- Mike is a good hitting guy but is not good at addressing problems head on. He tries to work through a problem instead of really identifying a problem and fixing it.

- Vernon has three years in a row where he has had a slow start, Mike has been with the team three years… coincidence?

- JP wants to use the move as a message to the team that prolonged losing streaks will not be tolerated.
Wildrose - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#113562) #
Nice little story on the new hitting coach.
Gardiner West - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#113563) #
Here's the list of coaches/managers since JP took over the reigns on November 14, 2001:

Managers (3)
Buck Martinez, Carlos Tosca, John Gibbons
Pitching Coaches (3)
Mark Connor, Gil Patterson, Brad Arnsberg
Hitting Instructors (2)
Mike Barnett, Mickey Brantley
1st Base Coaches (4)
Garth Iorg, John Gibbons, Joe Breeden, Mickey Brantley
3rd Base Coaches (2)
Carlos Tosca, Brian Butterfield
Bench Coach (3)
Cookie Rojas, Joe Breeden, Ernie Whitt
Bullpen Coaches (2)
Gil Patterson, Bruce Walton

Seems like an awful lot of turnover in just 3+ seasons and a lot of different points of view for a group of young, learning players to adapt to.

This constant revolving door might have been avoided if Ricciardi had started fresh with a new manager and coaches when he first arrived instead of putting together a staff with half Buck Martinez's people and half JP's. In my mind, this has put his 3-4-5-6-7 year plan in a perpetual stall. Pretty soon, the spotlight is going to shine on a GM that preaches patience to the fans, yet cannot claim that virtue amongst his own personal traits.
Jim - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#113564) #
"Thinks we’re better than a middle of the road hitting team.
"


They should be delighted if at the end of the year they are a middle of the road team.

Ron - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#113566) #
Thx for the recap JayWay.

I didn't hear the interview so I'll go by your recap.

While I understand JP is the GM so it's understandable why he would believe the Jays would be better than a middle of the road hitting team, I don't share that sentiment. Looking at the roster I don't see a lot of power, whether it be hitting HR's or doubles.

How could JP say he sees a lot of the same problems as last year after such a small sample size? As I understand, Barney wasn't even able to travel with the team after his eye surgery so he wasn't there day in, day out working with the hitters.

I wonder if he was asked about Hinske's or Zaun's progress so far this season.

I sure hope JP knows what he's doing but I get a little more skeptical with each passing month.

Here's a few reasons:

- I found it strange when he said League had nothing to prove at AAA during ST. He hadn't even pitched one inning at AAA. Why demote League and call up Whiteside after only 9.1 innings? And then according to SF's article, JP doesn't even know if League is a starter or a reliever. I feel like it's better to give League a defined role rather than leave him in a state of uncertainty. I just hope League doesn't flame out like Adam Peterson.

- The closer situation is also strange. JP said Speier was the closer, largely due to not being able to land Clement. And then JP did a 180 and said Batista was the teams closer. JP explained that he shifted gears because Batista was more effective if he could cut down on the number of types of pitches he throws. If this is true then why was Speier named the closer in the first place?

Craig B - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#113567) #
I was surprised that Barnett survived last seasons late coaching dismissals, this team consistently hits to many ground balls

No, they don't. The Jays are exactly average in terms of hitting the ball on the ground - they rank 15th of the 30 teams in baseball.

Last year, yes, there were probably a few too many balls on the ground (though it should be noted that in the SkyDome, hitting the ball on the ground was an advantage - on the fast turf, flyballs turn into outs, while groundball skip for base hits). That has changed this year.

BallGuy - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#113569) #
Again like many others have said, I'm not sure why it didn't happen in the off season but I think it is the right move to make. The old patterns are returning so make the move early before it is too late. That said, could it be that J.P. is moving quickly to try to protect himself? If the team struggles again then he will feel the heat more than anyone now. I think he had to act fast not just for the team's sake but also for his own sake. We may see him pull the trigger on moves a little more quickly (desperately?) now to try to preserve his job. Personally, I like him but he's been here a little while now so the bloom may be starting to come off the rose.
Any thoughts?
uglyone - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#113570) #
<i>- The closer situation is also strange. JP said Speier was the closer, largely due to not being able to land Clement. And then JP did a 180 and said Batista was the teams closer. JP explained that he shifted gears because Batista was more effective if he could cut down on the number of types of pitches he throws. If this is true then why was Speier named the closer in the first place?</i>

Batista being the Closer was always "Plan A", along with signing Matt Clement to be a top-3 starter.

When that signing failed, Batista was moved back into the rotation. Speier was only named closer after that - and he and everyone else knew that Batista was the #1 choice.

Chacin's impressive performance last year, in winter ball, and through spring training this year allowed them the luxury of moving Batista back out of the rotation into his "Plan A" role.
Jim - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#113571) #
According to the Associated Press, Ernie Whitt will coach first and the Jays will be sans Bench Coach.
Wildrose - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#113573) #
The official party line from the Blue Jay bunker, of note, Brantley goes "way back" with Gibbons
Magpie - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#113574) #
on the fast turf, flyballs turn into outs, while groundball skip for base hits). That has changed this year.

Big-time - I suspect that it's going to make a very big impact on how offense works at the dome. The fielders, I think, are still adjusting to the fact that it takes the ball considerably longer to get to them than it did before.

As for the coaching change - well, what do I know? I know, however, that it's generally true (in classrooms across the land) that no matter how good a teacher you are, there are always going to be students that you just don't click with.

BCMike - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#113578) #

How could JP say he sees a lot of the same problems as last year after such a small sample size?

There is obviously more to the move than the small sample of statistics. I'm still not sure why they kept him on after last season... in a way this is similar to the Lightenberg situation and I'm glad they were decisive and cut bait.

As for Hinske, after seeing him this year I'm puzzled as to why it took Barnett so long to help Hinske make the necessary adjustments. Obviously reforming your swing and approach isn't easy to do in the middle of a season. But surely if Barnett was aware of Hinke's flaws(and he should have been) they should have been addressed last year, or the year before for that matter, rather than allowing Hinske to struggle the entire season.

In the end I think the demise of Barnett was the complete lack of progress by the young hitters, Rios being the prime example.

BallGuy - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#113586) #
I don't think Hinske's early season success can only be attributed to Barnett. I think a large part of it also has to do with the fact that he is :

A) healthy
B) very comfortable at first base

Certainly these 2 factors also play a significant role in his re-emergance at the plate.
robertdudek - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#113587) #
The effect of fast turf on groundballs/base hits has been overstated. There probably aren't a lot more groundballs that result in hits on fast turf, because:

1) The infielders can set up deeper, giving them a bit more time to get to the ball

2) The extra balls that scoot through are counterbalanced somewhat by the slow choppers and dribblers that are often infield hits on slow surfaces.

The main effect of Skdome 1989-2004 was that it increased the number of doubles and triples hit (homeruns increased very very sightly). This is because a linedrive hit to the gap had a greater chance of getting to the wall.

Flex - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#113591) #
Barnett's approach was very technical and analytical. He was a theorist, not a practitioner, like an academic assessing the work of an artist. In other words, he could attempt to tell the hitters how to hit, but he couldn't show them.

It made no sense to me that Barnett was kept on at the end of last year, but perhaps it was a case of Ricciardi trying to be a good guy and also minimize the amount of flux on the team. As for the timing this year, better now than later. It was apparent this team stopped listening to Barnett some time ago.
Lefty - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#113593) #
Well a lot of the comments posted on this thread are a slight refrain on many issues I have been touching on for two or so years.

To me Ricciardi just isn't a very good manager of people. Lists above this post keep on the record the catalogue of poor management decisions pertaining to personel, be it players or managers.

I too, am worried that JP is going into survival mode and we might start to see poor long term decisions increase.

If the team starts smoking the ball for the rest of the season Brantley will get the praise. If they don't should JP take the blame? Or better will he accept a share of blame?

At what stage of this plan does Ricciardi get hauled onto the mat?

But my strongest point is how can you morally fire a guy who has been away on sick leave? If I'm working there, I am now treading carefully hoping not to step on the snake hidden in the long grass. This kind of move creates poison. Thats just poor form!

However, as promised, I will not be to critical until after the trading deadline. To me this is when the vision ought to be clear.

uglyone - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#113594) #
what reason would JP have to be in "survival mode" after a 9-11 start against a very tough schedule?

the Jays have been better than expected this year so far, not worse.
Mike Green - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#113596) #

The main effect of Skdome 1989-2004 was that it increased the number of doubles and triples hit (homeruns increased very very sightly). This is because a linedrive hit to the gap had a greater chance of getting to the wall.

If my memory is accurate, this was also true of Exhibition Stadium.

Ryan C - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#113598) #
But my strongest point is how can you morally fire a guy who has been away on sick leave?

Couldnt disagree more. If Barnett is healthy enough to be involved in the games then he's healthy enough to be fired for poor performance. It's not like he's out on his deathbed or something, in which case I would probaby agree with you that it's in very poor taste. But in this case Barnett is attending the games (at least the ones on the East Coast) and as far as we know is fulfilling his job duties. Having surgery in the off season should not be a reason for not firing a guy you no longer have faith in.

StephenT - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#113601) #
fyi: In-context Jays stats as of the coaching change. Includes EqAs of former Jays and league leaders, etc. e.g. Rios has a .277 Batting Average but just a .229 Equivalent Average (by my calculation).
Flex - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#113602) #
The other good thing about the timing of Barnett's firing is that it will hit the players harder. An off-season coaching shuffle happens at a distance and can be explained away in a player's mind. But tomorrow, Wells and Rios and Hinske and the rest of them are going to come to work and Barnett's not going to be there, thanks to their crummy/inconsistent hitting. This proves there are consequences for their (in)action.
jgadfly - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#113603) #
Does anybody know what games Barnett missed and has anybody crunched those numbers and compared them to the games that he was able to make ?
Jim - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#113604) #
I don't even think it's this complicated. You can't fire 14 players so the hitting coach goes. This is a bad offensive team, there is not a hitting coach on this planet who is going to turn this mishmash into a good offense.
Flex - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#113605) #
"This is a bad offensive team, there is not a hitting coach on this planet who is going to turn this mishmash into a good offense."

Not sure what that contributes to the discussion...

Anyway, here are the first three graphs of SF's piece on April 12th, when the Jays had a league-leading .292 team batting average and Brantley was the acting htting coach. Note the Gibbons quote at the end:

"Mike Barnett, Toronto's hitting coach, returns to his normal duties on Tuesday night. He's missed the last two weeks due to an operation on his left retina, and the Jays have responded with a hot-hitting 5-2 start.

Toronto manager John Gibbons joked about that on Tuesday, saying that the heat's on Barnett even if the performances are out of his hands.

"We've been scoring a ton of runs. We better score some runs tonight -- that's all I've got to say," said Gibbons, pausing for effect. "You think I'm joking, don't you?" "

Guess he wasn't joking.
Magpie - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#113607) #
Anyone else notice this? One year ago, the Jays staff included two men who never played pro ball (Tosca and Barnett), two men who never played in the majors (Breeden and Butterfield) and three men who had very brief ML careers (Patterson, Walton, and Gibbons.)

The two who never played pro are now gone, along with one of the two who never made it to the show. And while Arnberg for Patterson is not a whole lot more ML playing experience, both Brantley and Whitt managed a fair bit more than a cup of coffee...

jgadfly - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 11:06 PM EDT (#113608) #
RE: Alex Rios...it "seems" that he may have been hearing some mixed messages...a la Josh Phelps ? ... after plastering baseballs in batting practice he "seemed" to go out and just concentrate on making contact and putting the ball in play (even in batter's counts?)...now with recent instructions they are trying to get him to pull the ball...a fairly significant flip-flop..."It's difficult to rebuild a swing during the season"...especially AR at 6'5" and who is "just developing his power"...also well we are on this rant how is it that recent sucesses of Hinske and Koskie have been as a result of reviews of old video footage yet Vernon and Odog continue to struggle. I surmise that their videos are lost.
I also seem to recall someone being canned (BM) because the "young players" weren't being given clear goals and evaluations on a regular basis...somewhat difficult when one doesn't know whether one is a starting pitcher or a closer ? ...OR the recent success at Syracuse is due to the batting coach recommending swinging at the first pitch...what is going on?....enough!!! Actually the Jays are doing better than I thought they would and I must remember that success and failure are separated by an oh so fine line
jgadfly - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 11:15 PM EDT (#113609) #
OH... I forgot to say that I should shut up now because I wouldn't want anybody thinking that my diatribe was anything more than a phone-in radio show
Magpie - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#113611) #
The infielders can set up deeper, giving them a bit more time to get to the ball

Indeed (unless your name is Alomar, of course.) I think you end up with a slightly different required skill set as a result - your shortstop needs a big-time throwing arm, like Alex Gonzalez.

And conversely, on the new surface, the infielders playing more shallow should give them a better chance of getting an out on the little dribblers.

You may well be right that the biggest impact will be on balls hit into the outfield. Because the difference is very very visible. Line drives hit this stuff and just die. I'm under the impression that it's supposed to get more lively as it gets played on more but right now, I don't see how you get a ball between the outfielders on the ground.

Anyone else notice this? One year ago, the Jays staff included two men who never played pro ball (Tosca and Barnett), two men who never played in the majors (Breeden and Butterfield) and three men who had very brief ML careers (Patterson, Walton, and Gibbons.)

The two who never played pro are now gone, along with one of the two who never made it to the show. And while Arnberg for Patterson is not a whole lot more ML playing experience, both Brantley and Whitt managed a fair bit more than a cup of coffee...

Pistol - Monday, April 25 2005 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#113612) #
I'm not sure what to make of it, but it looks like the Jays bring in coaches as a contingency plan in case the current coach doesn't work out.

Tosca was brought in when Buck Martinez was coach and ended up replacing him.

Gibbons was brought in and ended up replacing Tosca.

Brad Arnsberg was brought in last year and ended up replacing Gil Patterson at the end of last year.

Now Brantley was brought in and he's replacing Mike Barnett.
Zao - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:08 AM EDT (#113613) #
And I suspect Whitt was brought in, in case Gibbons fails. It seems like the coaches that are picked by JP (Patterson, Tosca, Gibbons, Arnsberg) end up replacing other coaches/managers. I'm not sure if Brantley was picked by JP or Gibbons.
Michael - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:04 AM EDT (#113616) #
Well I have no idea if this is a good idea or a bad idea but I certainly agree that it feels a bit like moving the deck chairs on the titanic.

Small sample size means everything has to be take with a grain of salt but right now the Jays have an ABOVE AVERAGE offense scoring 4.89 RPG which is good for 6th out of 14 teams.

If we finish the season with pretty much the same position players we have now and still have the 6th best offense in the AL I'd say that is slightly better than you would have expected going into this year.

Now if only the pitching staff wasn't the 10th best.
Jim - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 07:26 AM EDT (#113619) #
"Not sure what that contributes to the discussion..."

I'm sorry it wasn't some sort of crazy theory of what the mental status of some players might be when comparing a mid-season firing to an off-season firing.

I guess I should have been clearer: JP can fire hitting coaches until the end of eternity, but he put this roster together and it's not a legitimate American League offense. The constant turnover in the coaching staff is growing tired, either this GM needs to put together a coaching staff that he feels can lead a team on the field, or they need to find a new GM.

I don't know what JP expects from Brantley, but unless he has the ability to turn water into wine history tells me he'll be gone by the middle of next season also.
JaysFanInCT - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#113620) #
At some point J.P. has to be blamed for this. Most of his moves have not worked out, he hasn't drafted anybody with star potential (most of his picks may be average major leaguers at best), and he treats people like garbarge. At this point, I wouldn't be upset if a new G.M. was brought on board in the next year or so. I almost wish J.P. took the Boston job a few years ago. I'm getting tired of watching his work fail.
Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 09:09 AM EDT (#113621) #
That's my big beef also, not a single guy anywhere in the system that can hit dingers. Just %100 mediocrity.

This is a team just screaming for an Adam Dunn like player.
Andrew S - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#113622) #
Nice to see the extreme overreaction from everyone. ;)

That said, He wasn't fired just 20 games into the season. Spring training is probly where hitting and pitching coaches should be doing the most work, and while those of us in our armchairs can mostly only do performance evaluation, if a lot of players come out of spring looking lost at the plate, I'd expect our manager to get on that.
Jonny German - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#113623) #
Just wondering, Dunny, who were the top three home run hitters in the Jays farm system last year?
Named For Hank - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#113624) #
and he treats people like garbarge.

He's always been nice to me. Did he do something to you, or are you referring to allegations from one specific columnist with an obvious axe to grind? Why people parrot this over and over again is beyond me.

Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#113628) #
I'm to lazy to check the actual numbers but my guess would be Big Vitto... I havn't seen the team splits for Hattig or Crozier though.

Now I realize a Dunn or a Burrell doesn't just fall in your lap, but I would have liked to see JP use one of his 2 high picks last year to draft a power prospect.

Also, Jose Guillen was had for a song, if I'm not mistaken, although to JP's credit the dude is a headcase.

Jonny German - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:29 AM EDT (#113629) #
Solid guess. Minor league vet Glenn Williams led the way with 23 homers, Griffin and Hattig right behind him with 22, Crozier and Tablado with 21. Vito hit 14.

Clearly the biggest weakness in the system is power hitting, but I agree with the thinking that you have to draft the best available player - this was especially true for the Jays last year when Jackson dropped to them at #32, given that they would have picked him at #16 had Purcey not been available. Left-handed pitching had also been a weakness before these two picks, and they did draft some power potential after that - Thigpen, Lind, Patton, Cannon, and Metropoulos all selected before the 10th round. Lind has been on fire in the early going at Dunedin, and at 21 he's not a case of an older player beating up on green competition.
jsut - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#113630) #

He's always been nice to me. Did he do something to you, or are you referring to allegations from one specific columnist with an obvious axe to grind? Why people parrot this over and over again is beyond me.

The way Tosca was fired never sit well with me. Not the firing, just they way it was done.

Dave Till - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#113631) #
On further reflection, the thing I don't like about Barnett's firing is the timing. If he wasn't the right man to be the hitting coach, couldn't they have figured that out in the offseason? And are heads always going to roll if the Jays go on a losing streak?

While I like the idea of a GM and front office that don't tolerate failure, I don't like a GM and front office that panic. (Admittedly, the line between the two is difficult to draw.)

I guess what doomed Barnett was how the club hit in the spring of 2003. Most of those guys are still here, and none of them are hitting now. Either that was a fluke, or Barnett hasn't been getting the hitters to reach their potential.
jsut - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#113632) #

yahoo has a longer story about this up now.

Jays Let Go of Hitting Coach Barnett

robertdudek - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#113633) #
And are heads always going to roll if the Jays go on a losing streak?

Clearly not. If I recall correctly, Buck Martinez was fired after the team swept a series (against Detroit, I think).
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#113634) #
NFH you couldn't be more bang on my friend

Steve Simmons obviously has a had a grudge against J.P. for a long long time, and although he's just doing his job I think its an absolute farce that this guy continues to write about baseball. I've read almost all of his articles in the last 3 years and not once have I thought that this guy had any idea what he was ranting about. He has an axe to grind indeed!
Thomas - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:53 AM EDT (#113635) #
Robert, you do recall correctly.
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#113636) #
Jim:

Well thanks for the obligatory shot at Bauxites discussing a few things "outside the box".

I think your arguements are somewhat valid, however will you be singing the same tune if the Jays are 2 1/2 games out of a playoff spot like they are now in say July? Especially with Dave Bush, Ted Lilly and Shea Hillenbrand leading the charge? Or what about Russ Adams in contention for Rookie of the Year and Aaron Hill being a Top 3 prospect perhaps on the cusp of stardom? Fransisco Rosario tearing up AAA?
dp - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#113637) #
It was odd to see him fired in April...I was hoping that they dumped him in July before giving up on Phelps and dealing Werth instead of Johnson...and during the offseason, after Hinske, Rios, and Phelps had all struggled, you would've thought then...

I don't like "send a message" moves in general, but it seems like this is the right move, wrong time, maybe even wrong reasons. Getting Greg Zaun going is nice, but the Jays have a load of min-level hitting talent coming up, and they need guys who're going to maximize that talent.

BTW, the Primer thread has a schizophrenic opinion about this site...everyone here is a JP lover...apparently, they haven't read what JP says...
Flex - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#113639) #
It was obviously a move that had to be made, and it's too bad it wasn't made before Phelps was tossed. Look at the quote from Ricciardi in Jeff Blair's article today:

"I'm just tired of seeing this team play with its head up its ass."

What kind of crazy batting stance is that!? What was Barnett thinking!? My God. No wonder the Jays weren't hitting!
JaysFanInCT - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#113640) #
J.P. has not handled things well at any level when it comes to dealing with people. This has been documented from day one and it hasn't stopped. No offense, but I don't really care how he treats you, I met him too and he was very nice and friendly. I care how he is treating the Blue Jays players, coaches and staff. Nobody has anything nice to say about the guy when they move on and that says a lot about the perception of the organization. It's a minor thing but when he hasn't come close to putting together a winner, little things matter too. Steinbrenner gets away with being a jerk and treating people like dirt because he wins. J.P. hasn't earned that right.

Barnett wasn't doing a very good job but he also didn't have a heck of a lot to work with and that is J.P.'s fault.
Named For Hank - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#113642) #
J.P. has not handled things well at any level when it comes to dealing with people. This has been documented from day one and it hasn't stopped

Okay, I missed it then. Please give me the specific incidents and the documentation, which you are implying does not come from one specific Jays-unfriendly source. I specifically would like to see the "day one" stuff.

How often are people who are fired happy to be fired? How many of them end up in an interview where they're fed leading questions and have their answers spun to fit a specific agenda?

Flex - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#113643) #
I'm tired of hearing that Barnett "didn't have a heck of a lot to work with" or blanket statements like this is a "bad offensive team" that no one could fix.

Last year he got to work with a team that had scored 5.5 runs a game the previous year, a mark only one team in the league surpassed. He had a power hitting outfielder that had led the league in hits, a mega star player who had led the league in RBI, a player that was a year removed from winning the rookie of the year, another rookie that over the final half of the year had crushed 15 home runs. He had a player in Alex Rios considered one of the top offensive prospects in baseball. He had a proven professional hitter in Catalanotto who only a few years before had come fifth in the race for the batting title. He had a couple of sparkplug players in Hudson and Johnson. He had a couple of other workable parts.

This year he lost his big home run hitter but received two more proven professional hitters in Koskie and Hillenbrand, plus a talented rookie who'd shown pitch selection at every level.

Did he have Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols? No, but he had more than enough talent to work with.
Ducey - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#113644) #
"J.P. has not handled things well at any level when it comes to dealing with people"

Oh, okay. JP gives him the benefit of the doubt, signs him up to a contract for this year to give him naother chance and then fires him after seeing problems. How is that worse than firing him during the off season? Sounds like if anything that he was bending over backwards for him.

Last time I checked, people don't tend to be happy about being fired - so you can't put much stock on their comments when leaving.

Named For Hank - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#113645) #
I'm tired of hearing that Barnett "didn't have a heck of a lot to work with" or blanket statements like this is a "bad offensive team" that no one could fix.

Amen.

Jim - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#113647) #
"I'm tired of hearing that Barnett "didn't have a heck of a lot to work with" or blanket statements like this is a "bad offensive team" that no one could fix."


I'm sorry if you guys disagree with this sentiment. It's true though.

I respect the opinions of you guys (Aaron, Flex, etc), but you guys have blue-colored glasses on – it’s a bad offense, they didn’t finish second to last in the league in scoring last year just because of injuries and the hitting coach.

JP has done an admirable job reloading the pitching in the farm system, but besides Hill there is not one player in the minors who projects to be above average in the major leagues.

The most laughable point JP made yesterday was when he connected the Wells 3 slows starts to the hitting coach. Maybe the person responsible for Wells' slow starts is Wells?

dp - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#113648) #
I'm with Flex...additionally, dealing Werth seemed like a bad idea, and I assume JP talked to Barnett about this before he did it...if not, bad JP, if so, bad Barnett...hopefully, we'll see some guys start to mash now- the talent's here. I'm still not sold on Rios as a power hitter; his numbers in the minors don't bear it out, but niether did Vern's. Gross will be an above-average corner OF, Adams should at least be a league-average SS (if he could start flashing some speed, that'd be cool for my BBFL team!). An '06 lineup with 2 of Hill/Adams/Hudon in the 1/2 spots, Rios #3, Wells #4, Koskie #5, Gross #6, with GQ/Hinske/FA pickup rounding things out is solid enough.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#113651) #
I think some posters are exaggerating how "bad" the current lineup is.

IMO, this lineup has a top-6 in the order that features 6 hitters with a realistic expectation of an .800ish ops this season, one or two of which have real potential to be at .850, and one of them has the potential to be at .900 or higher.

At the bottom of the lineup, you have 3 hitters with the realistic expectation of having a healthy mid-.700ish ops.

This is not the stuff of "awful" batting lineups.

Call a spade a spade - when 6 of these players have posted a sub-.700 ops so far this year, there's a problem with getting the most out of your talent, not with the talent itself.
Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#113652) #
yeah they have 9 professional hitters, but they don't have one or two guys that can carry a team for a month or so.

For the Jays hitters to be effective they have to grind out every at bat, every single one, I don't care if you're name is Alexis Rios or Reed Johnson.

They were doing it to perfection early, but now the have gotten swing happy and especially Koskie has just been brutal.

Time will tell...
Flex - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#113654) #
"yeah they have 9 professional hitters, but they don't have one or two guys that can carry a team for a month or so"

They had one of those last year. What did they accomplish?

"Now the have gotten swing happy and especially Koskie has just been brutal."

What you're describing is a poorly coached team.
Jim - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#113656) #
I think your expectations might be a bit out of line. I just went through the PECOTA projections and there is one player with an weighted mean above an .850 OPS - Koskie. Wells I believe is the only other one above .800.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#113657) #
I'd be interested in seeing why PECOTA would predict a healthy Catalanotto to be under .800ops, or Hudson and Hillenbrand much below that.

Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#113659) #
I'm not denying that they were poorly coached. Infact I'm agreeing. They've lost their patience at the plate and that coupled with the starters giving up alot of runs early = swing happy hitters. It's a classic formula.


R Billie - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#113660) #
dp, with the money the Jays have available, if those were the top 6 hitters of the 2006 lineup I would be very disappointed. That's not going to compete with the powers in the AL East. It's fine to be "solid enough" but solid enough only makes you an average team at best.

The Jays need two or three very high quality hitters who can compliment the rest of this solid lineup. Guys with thump or who can get on base, preferably both. These are the guys that have to occupy the top 3 or 4 slots in the order. I'm not sold on Rios and I'm not convinced waiting around for Wells to repeat 2003 is going to work.

Hill/Hudson/Adams do not belong near the top of a competitive AL East lineup. Two of those players are still developing and can't be relied upon for solid production. Hudson is a good hitter for a second baseman but not a good hitter for the top of a good lineup. Not enough OBP and his average and power don't make up for it. He's your classic bottom 7-8-9 hitter who will contribute and not hurt you.

The Jays can't be satisfied with solid. They need solid gold. The Orioles had the right idea in investing in a guy like Tejada who could settle their middle infield defensively and be a middle order presence at the same time. Maybe a couple of years too many on the contract but he's a guy you can move after three or four years for value.

I'm convinced Hinske is just not going to produce enough to justify his money in the long term. Maybe if he was a good defensive 3B man but as a first baseman, spending $4 to $5 million on him in 2006 and 2007 seems like a heck of a lot to pay for his middling performance.

Ditto Hillenbrand. I love how he's started the year but when his average dips to the .290+ range and he's making way more outs than he has been with just modest power, that's not going to be enough from 1B/DH. Unless he signs for about the same money AND you get better hitters that can push him down to 6th or 7th where he belongs in a good lineup.

It's great to have financial flexibility but it's pointless if you can't use that flexibility to buy HIGH QUALITY. A financially flexible average team isn't going to excite anyone. Baltimore sacrificed some financial flexibility in Tejada but their hitters are beating everyone's brains in right now.

The Jays have to be extremely careful with their money. Yes they have more to spend but that doesn't meaning the existing players should all be kept going forward. For 2006 you have a lot of money commited between Hinske, Batista, and Koskie. You have to consider whether arbitration or long term deals to Hudson and Hillenbrand are really worthwhile. These are both older players who are both solid enough but don't figure to get much better than they are if at all.

The point is if you keep tying up all your money into average players (Hinske, Batista, Hillenbrand, Schoeneweiss, maybe even Koskie now) then where is the production going to come from which has to elevate your team over the others? From the rookies? From bargain signings like Zaun? That's just not going to work. I'd rather the Jays moved a lot of these average salaries and concentrated on bringing in two or three $8 to $12 million bats who can truly change this lineup and make it competitive.

My fear is the Jays field that lineup which ends up being below average again and pour a boatload of money into pitching which may or may not turn out and we're left with another 4th place finish only with a team that costs $70 or $80 million.
Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#113661) #
Very Good points Billie..

What scares me the most is the Baltimore staff..

As much as they have been a running joke recently they have 3 young guys with plus stuff. Those three (Lopez, Bedard, Cabrera) aren't going anywhere. with Baltimore's money it's only a matter of time before they sign or trade for a true #1. At that point it's pretty much lights out for the Jays, they'll never see 3rd for the better part of another decade.

robertdudek - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#113662) #
The problem is that elite players don't particularly want to come to Toronto as free agents. It's not hard to see why - it's another country and playoff prospects are reduced due to the presence of the Red Sox and Yankees.

The other option is to acquire quality players by trading for them, but this isn't particularly easy if you don't have a lot of players coveted by other organisations. It's something JP and company have so far failed to do, though I hold out hope that the combination of more cash and cleverness will be able to bring in some quality players in the next few years.

The A's have been able to bring in talented players; the Red Sox brought in Mueller, Millar and Ortiz practically at bargain prices. It can be done. The question is, can JP do it?


R Billie - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#113663) #
Exactly. Baltimore is not going to sit still. Nobody is.

I really like that the Jays are producing Adams, Hill, Bush, Rios, Gross, and a bunch of others from the farm. But the only value of these players in the next three years is if they can perform solidly or even a little below average while not costing very much.

So what do you do with that money you save? It has to be put towards IMPACT PLAYERS. Not Hillenbrand, Hinske, Batista, and Schoeneweiss. But guys that you can rely upon to make your team go. Guys with the talent level of Halladay and Wells. That's the only way you can make the money saved by producing all of these young players MEAN something. By being highly above average at a lot of positions on your team.

It only stands to logical reason that spending money on veterans who are average for their position and complimenting them with rookies who are not star players today and may not ever be is going to result in a team in the middle of the major league baseball pack. Unless the Jays win solely on the basis of all the young pitching they have coming. But is that young pitching going to be enough to make them a top 3 ERA team? Because that's what they'll need to win with an average hitting lineup.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#113665) #
I don't think you have to worry much about that - J.P. is most definitely going to be pursuing impact players this year and next year.

There's no doubt about that whatsoever.
Pistol - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#113666) #
"I'd rather the Jays moved a lot of these average salaries and concentrated on bringing in two or three $8 to $12 million bats who can truly change this lineup and make it competitive."

These aren't mutually exclusive items anymore.

The Jays could add two $10 million players this offseason, without shedding any other contracts, and still come in right around a $75 million payroll (http://www.battersbox.ca/article.php?story=20050218180711270).

The real issue is getting those players in Toronto.
R Billie - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#113667) #
Free agents weren't shy of coming to Toronto when they were winning. Free agents are shy of coming to a team with 67 wins the year before. So if you can't rely on free agency in the short term then for goodness sake do not overspend on average or below average free agents. Everyone in baseball except the Jays seemed to know Schoeneweiss at 2 years and 2.5 million per year was an awful deal.

What turns heads in the free agent market is landing the big fish. Baltimore landed Tejada. Detroit landed Pudge. Overspending, offering too many years maybe. But it put two losing teams on the map.

Is that the right thing for the Jays to do? Depends on the player. For Tejada I would have said an emphatic yes. For Pudge and injury prone guys like Ordonez I would say no.

But if you're not breaking through in free agency then you have to make deals happen. It was harder in past years without much room to work with. It should be easier now. And they can make even more room by shipping out current contracts that have proven not to be worth it.
Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#113668) #
The SS contract is rediculous, and probably the worst contract on the team. He's awful.
Jim - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#113669) #
A healthy Catalanotto? Does such a thing exist?

Hudson .337 OBP .416 Slug
F Cat .338 OBP .412 Slug
Hillenbrand .331 OBP .452 slug (I'm guessing at the BOB)

Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#113670) #
The SS contract is ridiculous, and probably the worst contract on the team. He's awful.

The contract aside, I don't quite get saying "he's awful" on the basis of two lousy appearances (out of ten) in April. You need to see a little more than six innings of work from the guy.

I might mention that my pick for NL Cy Young went and put up four really lousy appearances (out of five) this same April. I feel pretty good about that.

Hoff - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#113671) #
Do the Jays have anyone coming up from the farm that they could use in relief? Anyone they see performing better then Spier, Shoenewies...?
Dunny - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#113673) #
He had ONE average year as a Starter...

This is the guy you want out there to get the other teams big Lefty? That's insane man....

He's as good as the other crap lefties JP has brought into the bullpen, but not by much. But atleast they were 2 million dollars cheaper.
Joe - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#113675) #
it’s a bad offense, they didn’t finish second to last in the league in scoring last year just because of injuries and the hitting coach.
Er, yes, that's exactly why they finished second-last (the former more than the latter). How else can you account for that same offense finishing among the league leaders the season prior?
Rob - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#113676) #
In Jeff Blair's article about the Barnett firing, there's something else of note. The online version of the story is not available, so here's the important passage, page S4 of today's Globe and Mail:

As of now, Rios is in the crosshairs. If he doesn't respond in the coming series, don't bet against his going to Triple-A Syracuse when the Blue Jays leave for a three-game series at Yankee Stadium in New York, beginning on Friday.

Blair's BBRSS rating is Sheet Metal, so when he says something is up, it probably is.

Ryan C - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#113677) #
He had ONE average year as a Starter... This is the guy you want out there to get the other teams big Lefty? That's insane man....

I dont understand? You would prefer the Jays go and get Randy Johnson to use as a LOOGY? What does his year as a starter have to do with him being used in lefty relief? I dont get the correlation.

Rob - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:37 PM EDT (#113678) #
Blair's BBRSS rating is Sheet Metal

Make that, his "BBRRS rating is Sheet Metal". (For those who don't know, BBRRS = Batter's Box Rumour Rating System.)

jgadfly - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#113679) #
JP's vision...we all can question his judgement but one thing that I don't doubt is his passion...his will to compete...it is this that gets him into trouble...the frustration of leaving runners in scoring position yet again and batters not working counts to their advantage in key situations represents a failure to play "Yankee-Red Sox" fundamentals...a prerequisite to playing and beating those teams and also the measurement of progress and success...the talent might be there to beat them but if the approach isn't constantly practised then the J's will never beat them and Barnett's credibility (Abstract theory vs practiced "been there done that" experience) allows for inevitable slippage and the return to also ran...also JP didn't help Barnett's "credibility" with his students when he hired John "I didn't come here to work with kids" Valentin ...again another instance of JP recognizing the need but not getting the out by fielding it cleanly ... another E4... BUT just as there is a learning curve for players, there is one for GM's as well... as long as we learn from our mistakes and don't keep making E4's
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#113680) #
The team scored 95 runs in their first 20 games. They're on pace for 770 runs scored. I don't think they will quite get there, but things offensively are not that bad.

There is good reason for hope in the starting rotation. The bullpen has performed poorly, but unlike previous years, I honestly do not see a serious bullpen management issue with the manager. I expect the bullpen to improve.

The key in the long run will be the development of the young players. I do not agree with RBillie's assessment of the young offensive talent on the big club and in the minor league system. It would be ideal if there was a big-time power hitter or two, but there are a number of hitters with good plate discipline and medium range power. That will play, in my view.

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#113681) #
According to TSN.ca the Blue Jays have released Greg Myers and called up Ken Huckaby from Syracuse. Myers refused a demotion and is now a free agent.
Ryan C - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#113684) #
According to TSN.ca the Blue Jays have released Greg Myers and called up Ken Huckaby from Syracuse. Myers refused a demotion and is now a free agent.

Good news. Myers appears to be done. And now we will get ample opportunity to make use of a great nickname/catch phrase (Ken "I heart" Huckaby).

King Ryan - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:52 PM EDT (#113685) #
Because Huckaby was absolutely tearing up AAA...
Petey Baseball - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#113687) #
King Ryan I hope that was sarcastic man.

Huckaby was hitting like .219.

My apologies if you were.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#113688) #
Huckaby possesses a lot of intangibles to make up for a weak bat, including good defence, handling or pitchers and his teammates always love him.

It's sad to see Myers career (likely) end like this but it was clear that he just didn't have the bat speed left to be a productive player. And Zaun was going to get worn down if he couldn't get more rest.
Rob - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#113690) #
Please, I can't imagine Ryan was serious on that one.

This is Ken Huckaby, after all...he wasn't hitting "like .219", it was actually .219. Is anyone else looking forward to the first Huckaby-Whiteside battery?
kpataky - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#113691) #
I am curious if Quiroz is ready to be activated at Syracuse or will they pull Tim Whittaker off New Hampshire's "phantom" DL and activate him in Triple-A?
Jordan - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:05 PM EDT (#113692) #
I actually love that quote from JP about the team playing with its head up its ass. It's refreshing to hear Ricciardi speak as candidly and bluntly as that -- that's what he was like back in the first year or so of his tenure, after which he became more careful with his public statements. It was probably a wise shift, but I do enjoy these moments of utter candour from the GM.

Rios demoted? Very possible, if the organization needs to get his attention, though I'd think they'd let Brantley work with him first. They'd also have to be sure that Gabe Gross is ready to come up to stay. Rios traded? Actually, that wouldn't surprise me, if Brantley can't make any headway with him this season. That would be a shame, obviously, because I do think Rios will grow into his frame someday. But the Jays aim to be AL East contenders next year, and they won't be able to afford to carry a banjo-hitting right fielder to do so. Blair rarely blows smoke, so you know the possibility of a Rios deal has at least been discussed in the front office. Still, I would hope (and I think) they'd give him till the end of this year.
Ron - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#113693) #
I remember there was a lengthy debate on Rios in the off-season in Da Box. Some were saying they don't believe he will hit for enough power to be a corner OF, while other's pointed out he will hit for power but you have to give him time and more AB's. Rios said he put on 10-15pds of muscle in the off-season, although he looks the same to me. I just wonder why didn't the Jays work with Rios on his swing in the off-season? Perhaps they did and it just wasn't reported by the media.

Either way if Rios gets sent down (which might kill his confidence after being in the bigs for almost a season while hitting for a solid BA)I expect Gross to be called up. Is Gross tearing up AAA pitching this season?
Six4Three - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#113694) #
I remember hearing rumors about Gross going to Atlanta. Any idea what could have been coming back? Also are Gross and Rios interchangeable in any deal?
kpataky - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#113695) #
Gross is at .264
kpataky - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#113696) #
If Rios could play more in Wrigley, he'd hit more HRs.

;-)
Ryan C - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#113697) #
I remember hearing rumors about Gross going to Atlanta. Any idea what could have been coming back?

JP was asked about this rumour and said they have no plans on trading Gross whatsoever. And he was pretty emphatic about it. I suspect that if the trade rumour was true, it never got to the stage where they figured out what might be coming back.

King Ryan - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#113699) #
Since Rios entered the big leagues in May 27th last year, there have been three players that have hit only one homerun (min 450 PA's.) Rios is obviously one of them. The other two are Luis Castillo and Craig Counsell. Then you have Eckstein, Freel, and Lugo at 2, and everyone else has more. Konerko has the most HR's in that timespan with 40.

Yeah, I was bored and felt like putting David Pinto's DBD Database to use. :)

Link: Here

Six4Three - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#113700) #
I think both Rios and Gross should spend some time in AAA and then the Jays should attempt to bring in another bat for RF. Perhaps Jaun Encarcion or Willy Mo Pena. (use our young pitching depth to aquire if need be) This gives us more immediate commodities at the trading deadline along with Hinskie/Shea/Cat if that looks like the right thing to do for the club. Or it improves our hitting depth.
Ducey - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:41 PM EDT (#113701) #
Wow. Think JP sent a clear enough message to the clubhouse today?

Just trying to keep track of the dollars: Are the Jays on the hook for Crash's salary? If so, how much?
Mick Doherty - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#113702) #
I think this is the classic case of a team's fans overrating what it has in the way of offering a trade. Encarnacion -- if you'd want him -- would probably cost Bush, at least in Florida's eyes, and they wouldn't be necessarily seeking MORE young stud pitching. They have that in spades. Pena, I'm guessing the Reds would want, say, Bush and Rios.

Yes, seriously. And I'm in no way endorsing that deal or anything like it. But you're not going to package Dustin McGowan and a couple of other unproven arms for Pena, not with the All-Brittle OF of Kearns, Dunn and Junior.
Six4Three - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#113703) #
You may very well be correct in what it will cost. For me Bush is the deal breaker not Rios.
Mike Green - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:03 PM EDT (#113704) #

Juan Encarnacion? Why?

It makes no sense to attempt to acquire a ballplayer who is off to a hot start, but at age 28, has demonstrated pretty clearly that he is a below average player. The single most important offensive ability is the ability to get on base, and for a rightfielder, Encarnacion is at or below replacement level in this regard. He's got some power, but nowhere near enough to have any real value.

Six4Three - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#113705) #
What about Ryan Klesko in SD? I know that is a big downgrade in defense especially with Cat also in the line up. But he can be moved to 1B once that logjam is dealt with.
dp - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#113706) #
dp, with the money the Jays have available, if those were the top 6 hitters of the 2006 lineup I would be very disappointed. That's not going to compete with the powers in the AL East. It's fine to be "solid enough" but solid enough only makes you an average team at best. Hill/Hudson/Adams do not belong near the top of a competitive AL East lineup. Two of those players are still developing and can't be relied upon for solid production. Hudson is a good hitter for a second baseman but not a good hitter for the top of a good lineup. Not enough OBP and his average and power don't make up for it. He's your classic bottom 7-8-9 hitter who will contribute and not hurt you.

R Billie-
I agree with everything you said except Hill/Adams/Hudson at the top of the order. Putting that aside, I was one of the people very critical of the Hillenbrand acquisition. I was also critical of signing Koskie, which I still think will handcuff the team's ability to grab a front-line player. The type of hitter the Jays need is precisely the type they let walk in Delgado, and he was willing to stay in Toronto. When JP bitches about top-flight talent wanting to come north, I just keep wondering why he didn't try to keep what he had.

If Hill, Adams or Hudson can post OB% in the .350 range, they'll be acceptable at the top of the order. I think Hudson and Hill have that potential, but the team will wind up staying with Adams and Hill.

I agree with Mick that the Jays will have a tough time landing a guy like Pena...Encarnacion I can do without...there's enough teams lacking pitching depth that they should be able to sift some of the abundance of pitchers for some more hitting talent...

The problem as I see it is that next year a bunch of money is tied up in Hinske and Koskie. Koskie's not going to get better- you're paying him for past production. Hinske's a huge question mark, and even his rookie season isn't worth what he's being paid as a 1B. There's more than one way to skin a cat though- if the team can dump Hinske, Cat and Hillenbrand by July for some nearly-ready minor league talent (to a contender unwilling to trust key AB to a minor leaguer), that should free up enough cash for a power bat. Todd Helton would be nice if the Rox pick up a bunch of his salary. If the young pitchers develop nicely- Rosario, McGowan, Bush- the team should have enough talent to compete in '07.

But they need to start taking risks on high-ceiling picks the way the Ash/Gillick era did.
King Ryan - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#113707) #
I can't imagine that Encarnacion would cost even half that much. He just isn't very good at all.
Ron - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#113708) #
If the price of Pena was Bush and Rios, that's a deal I would gladly make.

IMO Rios is nothing more than a 4th OF, while the Jays have a lot of SP depth in the farm system. The real weakness for the Jays at the big league level and in the minors is a masher. Pena's got 40-50 HR potential.
Six4Three - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#113709) #
IMO Rios is nothing more than a 4th OF, while the Jays have a lot of SP depth in the farm system. The real weakness for the Jays at the big league level and in the minors is a masher. Pena's got 40-50 HR potential.... Is Pena's potentional really that high? I would prefer to move someone else than Bush. I value Bush more than League as unpopular as that may be. Wonder if they would go for Towers, Chulk, and Rios?
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#113710) #
Is Pena's potentional really that high?

I wouldn't think so, but PECOTA absolutely loves him. Here are his PECOTA comps:

Albert Belle, Jesse Barfield, Bob Watson, Dale Murphy, George Foster, Charlie Spikes, Ron Swoboda, Dave Winfield, Pete Incaviglia, Leon Durham.

Some of these comps, IMO, are insane (Winfield?!?). If he turns out to be the next Leon Durham, that wouldn't be at all bad.

Rob - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#113711) #
IMO Rios is nothing more than a 4th OF

Cool. Between him and Reeder, the Jays have a 2nd outfielder.

Rob - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#113712) #
What does PECOTA think about Rios?

Hopefully, Ron Swoboda does not make an appearance on his list.
Pepper Moffatt - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#113713) #
What does PECOTA think about Rios?

Tom Umphlett, Jay Johnstone, Jim Piersall, Jesus Alou, Hal Jeffcoat, Al Cowens, Roberto Clemente, Jim Wohlford, Rick Manning, Jeffrey Leonard.

Blue in SK - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#113716) #
Sorta off topic, but it was brought up in the thread earlier about Crash's release.

If Huckaby is coming back up to the bigs, does anyone else think that this is a short term proposition?

That is until JP acquires another back up catcher. Nothing against Huckaby, but it's pretty obvious that he isn't being brought up for his offensive potential and if I recall properly his defence isn't that great either.

I seem to recall from his past stint with the club, that he wasn't adept at blocking pitches in the dirt nor throwing out runners attempting to steal. Which tends to leave his game calling abilities as his only significant attribute.

But doesn't Crash have the same resume? So why make the move unless something else is in the works. I would like to think that maybe it involves a significant trade in the works, but I think it's too soon in the season for something like that.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#113717) #
I think J.P. has a real luxury right now of being able to trade from pretty much anywhere on his team and in the system.

There's two guys on the team that I wouldn't trade no matter what - Roy and Verno. Top flight players at top-flight positions. (I know some don't believe that Wells will regain his 2003 form, but I'm not one of them).

Other than, the Jays have a bunch of players with similar overall talent, but also with varying individual talents. not to mention at varying levels in the system - at every position and role on a team.

There's no doubt in my mind that it's time to think of starting to make all sorts of packages...including quality players (Lilly, Hudson), mediocre vets (Cat, Shea, Batista), quality kids (Bush, Chacin, Rios, Gross, Adams, Hill, McGowan, Banks, League, Rosario, Gaudin) to 2nd tier kids (Griffin, Crozier, Chulk, Frasor, Arnold, Hattig)....

The jays have the depth in all areas to be able to afford giving up any of these players individually.

As long as it gives the Jays a significant upgrade, and doesn't leave a hole (i.e. trading 2 of Hudson/Adams/Hill would leave an infield hole, trading 1 of them wouldn't), I'm not averse to trading any of these guys.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#113718) #
Does anyone else see Rios the hitter as another Shannon Stewart, with a bit more power potential? (not to mention much better defense).
BCMike - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:34 PM EDT (#113719) #

There's two guys on the team that I wouldn't trade no matter what - Roy and Verno. Top flight players at top-flight positions. (I know some don't believe that Wells will regain his 2003 form, but I'm not one of them).

The only reason I would include Wells with Halladay is that, outside of Gross, there are no outfielders coming up. Otherwise I would seriously consider moving him. I would imagine Wells could fetch quite a bit.

Maybe if Rios' bat comes around he could make a solid centerfielder.

Dave Till - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#113720) #
I recall Rios hitting the ball hard a few times, and he's hit the base of the wall on the fly at least once. It's not like he's Otis Nixon out there. I wouldn't give up on him just yet.

If you send Rios down - whether to teach a lesson or whatever - who do you bring up? Gross isn't hitting that well in Syracuse, and hasn't hit any home runs down there. Griffin is cooling off after a hot start. Do you put Sparky out there full time, or what?
BCMike - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#113721) #
If Rios goes down it has to be Gross who comes up. I don't think Rios is struggling that badly, so if you aren't going to give Gross a shot I would rather see Rios stay up to work with Brantley. Sure Gross isn't setting the world on fire, but as long as he can get in the lineup regularly I don't mind seeing him in the bigs.
Six4Three - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#113723) #
If Rios goes down it has to be Gross who comes up.... I disagree let them both work it out in AAA and battle each other for the first call up. As for full time I love Reed but no that would not be any good. Bring in a vet like a Conine. Someone that has some value later in the season if the kids lite it up in AAA. Or perhaps a AAA playoff run...nothing wrong with that!
King Ryan - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#113724) #
I keep waiting for the news to come around that Myers actually retired. I mean, it would make a hell of a lot more sense.

But I'm not seeing it anywhere. Why on earth would JP release Crash and call up Huckaby? I just don't get it. I mean, it's not a big deal or anything, but it just makes me scratch my head.
Magpie - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#113725) #
I seem to recall from his [Huckaby's] past stint with the club, that he wasn't adept at blocking pitches in the dirt nor throwing out runners attempting to steal. Which tends to leave his game calling abilities as his only significant attribute.

But doesn't Crash have the same resume?

In his one season as a semi-regular, Huckaby threw out 32.7 of attempted base stealer (18 of 55); he also allowed a club record 13 passed balls. On the other hand, the pitchers had a 4.28 ERA with Huckaby catching (and he caught more innings than anyone else), and a 5.27 ERA with the other catchers (mainly Wilson and Fletcher). Which is huge if it actually indicates a real skill rather than just a one-year fluke.

Crash was never on any team for his defense. He always found work because he was adequate defensively and a decent LH stick. I suspect - I have no way of knowing - that management decided that Myers was never going to start hitting playing just once a week. He needed to go to AAA and get some regular at bats. Because if he's not hitting, you might as well play Huckaby. But Myers is probably thinking that there's no way he wants to ride the buses ever again - if he doesn't get a bite from another ML team, he'll just go home to California. Like he was going to do last year anyway.

Thomas - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#113728) #
I don't know if this was reported anywhere else or not, but Jeff Blair also postulated today that Gibbons would get a contract extension in the coming days.
Jim - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#113742) #
"Er, yes, that's exactly why they finished second-last (the former more than the latter). How else can you account for that same offense finishing among the league leaders the season prior?"

Thanks for this softball. Where do I begin?

1. Carlos D., no wait, that's too obvious I'll call him C. Delgado: 690 PA 302/426/593 42 HR 145 RBI 160 OPS+
2. Josh Phelps 440 PA 268/358/470 20 HR 112 OPS+
3. Vernon Wells 720 PA 317/359/550 33 HR 131 OPS+
4. Reed Johnson 450 PA 294/353/427 10 HR
5. Greg Myers 370 PA 307/374/502 15 HR 124 OPS+

3 are gone and 2 have produced nothing like that over the past season and a month.

You also got 520PA of F-Cat at a 111 OPS+
335 PA of Shannon Stewart at a 104 OPS+
and even Hinske was at 96 OPS+ in 510 PA

Who is hurt in 2005? Exactly. This team bears no resemblance to the team in 2003 that had a very good offense.

I guess we can all sit around and wait for Wells to turn back into the 2003 Wells and Rios to turn into the 2003 New Haven Rios because there isn't much else to do in April, but at this point I wouldn't hold my breath. If you think Gabe Gross is going to be the type of player that can turn this lineup around, I'm pulling with you - but it's a dream with little basis in reality.
uglyone - Tuesday, April 26 2005 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#113818) #
<i>Why on earth would JP release Crash and call up Huckaby? I just don't get it. I mean, it's not a big deal or anything, but it just makes me scratch my head.<i>

I imagine some of it had to do with the fact that Zaun is much better as a lefty than a righty.
dp - Wednesday, April 27 2005 @ 01:36 AM EDT (#113844) #
Does anyone else see Rios the hitter as another Shannon Stewart, with a bit more power potential? (not to mention much better defense).

If we're lucky- Stewart actually hit in the minors, which Rios hasn't outside of 2003. Stewart also had a better walk rate. Rios doesn't have Stewart's speed, and he hit .277/.315/.369 in over 1300 AB at A ball. Stewart hit .302/.370/.418 in A ball and moved up quickly.
uglyone - Wednesday, April 27 2005 @ 10:32 AM EDT (#113856) #
hmmm....let me check the comparison again, it's been a while since I looked at it....



A Ball:

Stewart (20): 225ab, .324/.390/.467/.857
Rios (21): 456ab, .305/.344/.408/.752

AA Ball:

Stewart (21): 498ab, .287/.398/.390/.788
Rios (22): 514ab, .352/.402/.521/.923

AAA Ball:

Stewart (22): 420ab, .298/.381/.440/.821
Rios (23): 185ab, .259/.292/.373/.665


23 years old (both players started in AAA, finished in MLB):

Stewart (AAA): 208ab, .346/.445/.490/.935
Rios (AAA): 185ab, /259/.292/.373/.665

Stewart (MLB): 168ab, .286/.368/.446/.814
Rios (MLB): 426ab, .286/.338/.383/.721


24 years old (first full MLB year):

Stewart: 516ab, .279/.377/.417/.794
Rios: 69ab, .290/.301/.377/.678



Hmm. I'm surprised by the advantage Stewart has in OBP. For some reason, I remember Shannon always getting criticized for not walking enough.


dp - Wednesday, April 27 2005 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#113879) #
Stewart was one of those rare players who could consistently hit for a high BA- as a result, his OB% rarely fluctuated much. A mediocre walk rate was acceptable for him because of this...
Mike Green - Wednesday, April 27 2005 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#113880) #

Shannon Stewart was a fine leadoff hitter in the minors, and upon his arrival in the majors. He really did not make progress in his 20s, and his defence took a lot of criticism. I personally thought that the criticism was too strong.

Rios arrives to the majors without Stewart's fine strike zone judgment, but possesses much more power growth potential. We will see if that develops.

dp - Wednesday, April 27 2005 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#113881) #
From the time he hit the majors, his OB% has been between .363 and .380. A bit of power. I think we'd be in good shape with him leading off again...I'd rather have him at DH than Shea and SS in the bullpen...but then, I've always been a Stewart fan, so am biased...
BCMike - Wednesday, April 27 2005 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#113883) #
Quite the contrast between Griffen and Dr Prison Fence on the hitting coach story. Not surprisingly Griffen takes the opportunity to slam Ricciardi, while Fordin actually does some reporting and discovers that the decision was heavily influenced by Gibbons.

Griffen's article can be summed up with one quote... "Brantley is very qualified to replace him, but that misses the point."
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