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The Jays travel to the Metroplex sporting a 4-2 July record, and considering their tough opposition and the fact that they could well have won all six games, have to be feeling good about how they're playing. But before the All-Star Break and the sweet, sweet nectar of ten games against the D-Rays, M's and Royals, the Jays have another tough road series in Arlington, where they have simply not played well historically.

The Rangers are an interesting club that has posted a virtually identical record to the Jays, but not in the same way; Texas wins by blasting home runs -- tons of them -- off righthanded pitching. Each hitter in this potent lineup can be pitched to, but crushes mistakes. Sounds like an OK deal for Doc Halladay, but Josh Towers might be in tough.

Today's Scout features a lot of longballs, a Blue Jay draftee made good and a couple of Scott Boras sightings.

On to the Advance Scout!

* General: The Rangers can really go deep. Heading into last night's games, the Rangers had a twenty-homer lead on the field for the major league team home run lead, and had more than doubled the HR output of six other clubs (Giants, Marlins, Nationals, Royals, A's, Mariners). Texas is out-homering the Jays by a 135-73 count ... That said, the Rangers are a measly 4-13 against lefthanded starters this season, and none of the regulars are particularly strong against southpaws (and many are weak). Hence the decision to go with Scott Downs on Saturday -- it could work ... The Jays are a woeful 21-39 at Ameriquest Field since its construction, although they did split a tough four-game set back in April ... The Rangers will skip Ricardo Rodriguez thanks to yesterday's off-day. Chris Young will thus get in another start before the break ... Strange stat: When the Texas bullpen has been called upon to pitch six or more innings, the long relievers have posted a 0.64 ERA in six games ... Richard Hidalgo, who has been dreadful of late (3 for his last 36), is battling right knee tendinitis ... Chan Ho Park leads the AL in pitches per inning at 18.44 ... Scott Boras, agent for Taylor Teagarden, has not yet returned the Rangers' calls after Texas made the draftee a contract offer. Hope the Rangers aren't holding their breath ... After three ineffective starts, 24-year-old lefty C.J. Wilson was sent back to AA Frisco ... It appears that OF Chad Allen will not be called up today, thus triggering an escape clause in his contract ...

* Michael Young: Another All-Star Game for the one that got away, who's earned the respect of his Ranger teammates as their captain ... Has hit in 13 of his last 14 (.375) ... Physically, very balanced at the plate ... Easily enough power to yank pitches on the outer half deep to left ... 6'1", 190, but not all of his homers are cheapies. He can go deep ... Waits effectively on breaking stuff, too ... Vulnerable on the outside corner if you hit it ... Not terribly patient and will sometimes make an out in play on a so-so pitch rather than waiting for the pitch he can really drive ... Is 6-for-19 all-time against Doc ... Teixeira: "He's our catalyst" ...

* David Dellucci: Has drawn 53 walks and scored 56 runs despite being a mere 1-for-12 against lefties ... Loves the ball up and in and is really belting high fastballs this year for power ... Dellucci also has a lot of success with harder breaking stuff, if left up and in ... As his 64 strikeouts would suggest, however, he does have holes in his swing. He'll simply wave at breaking stuff that drops out of the zone if he doesn't recognize the pitch immediately ... Also chases heat up and away ...

* Kameron Loe: Huge presence on the mound at 6'8" ... Slings the ball at an arm angle lower than three-quarters but not quite sidearm. It explains why he's so much more effective against righthanders ... Runs a 91 mph sinker in on righties ... Leaves the ball up too often, which is unfortunate given his tough downward movement ...

* Francisco Cordero: Big-time gas ... Very little difference in his stuff between this year and his excellent 2004. Don't be fooled by his higher ERA -- it's just a product of having surrendered three homers thus far, after only yielding one all year last season ... A two-pitch pitcher. There's sharp downward movement on his high-80s slider, but it's vulnerable when it starts up in the zone ... Lives and dies by his high-90s four-seamer ...

* Hank Blalock: Loves the ball up in the zone -- or even up out of the zone -- and really flies open at the plate when he sees a pitch he can turn on ... Can be handcuffed by pitches up but off the plate inside ... Chases lefthanded breaking stuff down and away. He's more of a fastball hitter ...

* Kevin Mench: Finally playing every day ... Went deep three times against the Angels on June 30 ... Keeps his hands very high, from his stance through his swing ... Tremendously strong hitter with power to all fields ... Prefers fastballs up and out over the plate ... Poor discipline on breaking pitches away. He's a chaser ... Underrated with the glove in left ...

* Rod Barajas: Inside-out swing ... Keeps his elbows tucked in tightly, and it seems to cost him some extension at the plate ... Stays down on pitches well, though, and uses the entire field ... Pulls his head way off righthanded sliders, or anything tailing away from him ...

* John Wasdin: After "Way Back" Wasdin served up an amazing 18 gopher balls in 65 innings last season, he's only surrendered two homers in 25 2/3 IP so far this year ... I wish I could offer a more nuanced explanation than the simple fact that he's kept his two-seam fastball down effectively ... Goes with his looping curveball on two-strike counts ... Has kept an excellent attitude about his swingman role: "I'm like a utility player that plays every position" ... This can't last, can it? ...

* Kenny Rogers: His appeal of his 20-game suspension will likely not be resolved until after the All-Star Break, so the Jays unfortunately have to face him tomorrow instead of a replacement ... Booed lustily by Seattle fans on Sunday as he made his start. The Safeco Field sound crew cheekily played "Eye Of The Tiger" as the cameraman-pummeling veteran took the hill ... Needs to paint the corner with his stuff, which isn't overpowering ... Effortless delivery puts very little strain on his aging arm ... Locks righties up with a high-80s fastball down and in, or up and in ... He's reportedly under tremendous pressure from MLB types to stay home and avoid the embarrassment of loud boos during the player intros. Agent Scott Boras, though, thinks Rogers should and will be there ...

* Gary Matthews, Jr.: Good-looking swing from the left side, with a slight uppercut ... From the right side, definitely hits off his front foot, but like all Rangers, it's with power ... Lefties should stay down and in and take advantage of his off-balance mechanics ... Righties should also work him down and in with breaking stuff, which he's wont to chase ...

* Sandy Alomar, Jr.: At 39, Sandy can still hit the high fastball with gap power ... Waits on junk reasonably well ... Can't reach the outside corner ... Who'd have thought he'd outlast his brother in the bigs? ...

* Alfonso Soriano: After slugging "only" .484 last season, Soriano's power is all the way back this season. He's already hit 20 dingers ... Hanging curves invariably get deposited 15 rows deep in left ... Still has good speed, but only nine steals and no triples thus far ... You should know how to pitch to him by now: Expand the strike zone away, then throw a curve down and away ...

* Mark Teixeira: The imposing All-Star has a lightning-quick swing from the left side ... Gets the bat head out and pulls pitches for power ... Excellent plate coverage as a lefty ... Righties have to induce him to chase down and in ... Swings with less authority from the right side, where he'll wave at outside pitches far more often ... Has hit 0 -- count 'em, zero -- homers as a righthanded hitter this year. All 22 have come against righthanded pitching ... Named to be the U.S. representative in the internationally-themed Home Run Derby next week ... Bobby Abreu (Venezuela), Jason Bay (Canada), Andruw Jones (Netherlands), Carlos Lee (Panama), David Ortiz (Dominican Republic), and Ivan Rodriguez (Puerto Rico) are among the other participants ...

* Joaquin Benoit: What's gotten into this guy? ... Has become more consistent with his late-breaking slider ... Also throws a slower curve that drops into the strike zone ... Throws a mid-90s four-seamer, but it's a bit straight ... Rares back with his pitching arm in a way that looks rather taxing ...

* Chris Young: The ex-Princeton hoopster has turned in a fine first half. Stunningly, he ranks among the league leaders in strikeouts per nine innings ... Uses his 6'10" frame to get a good downward trajectory on his fastball, which doesn't top 90 mph by much ... Tailing motion on his heater ... Not afraid to work up in the zone; consequently, he's vulnerable to the longball ... Has a small hitch in his delivery, where he pauses slightly before releasing the ball. It can be deceptive ... Keeps his slider down, inducing swinging strikes from the undisciplined ...


Advance Scout: Rangers, July 8-10 | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
HippyGilmore - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#121932) #
Just a feeling: Doc tosses a no-hitter tonight. It's not jinxing it if you call it before it even starts.
uglyone - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#121935) #
Alright, so I'm in with the Downs in game 2 call, given their ridiculous L/R splits.

Game 3, however, is a little different.

If there was ever a pitcher that was made to get smashed up by this Rangers lineup, it's Josh Towers. I'm 100% convinced that there's no way he gets through 5 innings against that lineup.

However, we do have this lefty named Ted Lilly, who's on one helluva roll right now, would demolish that lineup, and would have the minimum 3 days rest needed to start....with the All-star break coming up for some rest.

Ted Lilly for game 3 on short rest?

who's with me?
Magpie - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#121937) #
The Game 3 matchup did me look twice. Towers vs C Young.

"Isn't he dead?" was my first thought.

Mick Doherty - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#121938) #
You call Loe at 6'8" imposing when he's not even the tallest guy on the staff? He'd have to slide over to PF as Chris Young played the 5 on this team.
Jdog - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#121939) #
I'm with the uglyone....there is no way i would want Towers starting a game against this team, but i sure aint one of his biggest fans.
Mike Green - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#121940) #
Nope. Ted Lilly's injury history would persuade me to stay away from short rest starts.

The platoon splits are a bit deceptive due to sample size. Soriano and Young are right-handed hitters who have had reverse platoon differentials, with only 70 at-bats against lefties so far this year. Over the last 3 years, both have had typical platoon differentials, hitting left-handed pitching at 10-30 points better both in OBP and slug.

I don't think it hurts to start Downs instead of Walker, but that's about as far as I would take it.
Named For Hank - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#121943) #
The Game 3 matchup did me look twice. Towers vs C Young.

Me too. My mind kept adding the extra y, and I was trying to figure out the gag.

Named For Hank - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#121945) #
For those keeping track, Hillenbrand's magic number after sitting yesterday is three -- three hits, walks or HBPs during this series and his OBP will be over .350 at the break. If he sits another game, that changes everything, too. This is based on me trying to figure out exactly how these stats all work and guessing that he'll have probably four at-bats per game. If anyone else wants to re-do my probably bad math, I'd be a happy man.

Unless, of course, your math makes the magic number 17 or something, then I'd cry.
uglyone - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#121947) #
all math is bad math.
Brian W - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#121950) #
Well, he can go 0 for 8 and that would drop him to .350 exactly. One hit in 10 plate appearances or 2 in 13 would also keep him above.
Jefftown - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#121951) #
A bonus reason to crush Chris Young on Sunday (besides needing the run support for Towers' outing), is to slip him further down the RotY ladder as Chacin's main pitching challenger.

In his last 2 starts his ERA's went from 3.21 to 3.80, while the Chacin-o's only went up 17 pts.

Young still has the upper hand, with more Ks, less BBs, and a better WHIP (although Gussy has more quality starts), but that might not matter, as the BBWAA is not prone to look too far past wins and how much character John Kruk says he has.
King Ryan - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#121952) #
Did anyone else have to double-take when they saw that Towers would be matched up against C. Young? Hehehe.
King Ryan - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#121953) #
Oh Jeebus. I should really refresh the page before I post a comment.
Lucas - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 08:15 PM EDT (#121955) #
In case you're interested, I wrote a piece about John Wasdin recently. He's actually allowing more fly balls than ever. Extremely lucky.

http://www.lonestarball.com/story/2005/7/3/145031/3333
Rob - Friday, July 08 2005 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#121956) #
My math (which I grant you, is at 20% in July) puts the magic number at three as well. In fact, as long as Shea has no more than 14 PAs (which seems pretty likely in three games), he can do it with two hits/walks/OBPs as well -- all the way up to 2-for-15. A 2-for-15 series puts him at .349.

If he only gets on base once, he must have no more than 11 plate appearances. And if he goes 0-for-Texas, he can go up to 8 PA, but once he hits 0-for-9, Dudek wins the bet.

The short version of all that is as follows: Aaron Reynolds' math was good. Quod erat demonstrandum.

Live update: in the second inning, Hillenbrand was hit by a pitch, so he can go 10 PAs without reaching base and keep his OBP over .350.
Advance Scout: Rangers, July 8-10 | 15 comments | Create New Account
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