For a supposed seller's market, the prices paid for name-brand talent at this deadline have been underwhelming. Here are C.J. Henry's splits. Basically at age 20 in low A, he's striking out 175 times per 600 PA with no power. 

You'd probably optimize Bobby Abreu's value at this point by having him bat leadoff.  Not that the Yankees can go wrong with that lineup.  They could probably leadoff with Robinson Cano or Jason Giambi and still score 6.5 runs per game.

I was wondering about that too Mike, but I think batting him lower down in the order behind some guys will actually help him I believe. 

For whatever reason, Abreu has a .677 OPS this season with no one on base, and over 1.000 with men on.  As well, during his career it hasn't been nearly that extreme, but with men on he generally has about 140 pts of OPS higher than with no one on base.  So I don't think him seeing the bases empty is really going to help.  His Power might be dwindling a bit this season, but he can still hit those doubles.

Aiiieeeeee! Where does that put the Yankees' payroll?

I will now redouble my efforts to root against the Yankees. Steinbrenner should not be allowed to buy himself a post-season place every year.

Presumably, Abreu takes over RF with Cabrera in LF and Williams DHing.

Abreu helps a lot if they bat him in front of the power hitters - but is Torre likely to do that with a "proven slugger?" I think not.   How big a deal is it when you add a .277 hitter with 8 HRs this year?

This almost certainly means the Yankees won't be attempting to bring back Sheffield in 2007. Which is fine by me. I'd much, much rather have Sheffield in 2007 and 2008 than Abreu.

I thought that Bernie Williams was retiring after this season, and so the Yankees might want Sheffield to return as a DH/occasional outfielder. 

All that payroll and still no 'true' centerfielder (anyone seen Damon's fielding antics lately - sheesh!) that will be in the lineup on a consistent basis, a great shortstop who plays 3rd, an iron glove at short, a fence post at 1st base, and like every one else, not much in middle relief. Yeah, they'll score a lot, but can they keep runs off the board? Dave Till I'm with you and anyone else who wants to raise the ABTY (Anyone But The Yankees) cheer this fall.

I'd much, much rather have Sheffield in 2007 and 2008 than Abreu.

Really? I'd take Abreu in a heartbeat, though he is a favourite of mine. You have no qualms about a 39 year old Gary Sheffield out in RF?

And I actually like that New York made this trade. Every story needs a bad guy; baseball needs the Yankees.

Slighting Abreu for being a .277 hitter is like calling Glaus a mere .257 hitter.

Abreu is currently third in the NL with a .427 OBP. Career, he's hit .301/.412/.507, and moves to a park that favours LHBs. Plus, he can play defense. IMO, he gives New York a major boost. Lidle is mediocre, but could be marginally useful. And the Yankees block Boston from getting either player.

I think it's a great trade for New York, which has the budget to make this kind of deal. Philly was obviously desperate to unload his contract. I am embarrassed for MLB that they couldn't get one of the Yankees' top prospects, though. Plus ca change...

Well that takes Lidle out of the equation for the Jays starting rotation. Who's left? Kip Wells, John Lieber, Mark Redman... not much quality.

If the Jays lose today's finale against the A's I would like to see the Jays sell off some of their free-agents. Lilly, Molina, Speir and Catalanotto would certainly bring something of value - especially given the dearth of pitching.

Once the Yankees' made it clear that Philip Hughes was off the table, I think the trade was more about the Yankees' willingness to take on Abreu's contract than the quality of the players the Phillies received.

Let me get this straight, the Yankees could very well have a lineup at the end of September that looks something like

1. Damon cf
2. Jeter ss
3. Giambi 1b
4. Rodriguez 3b
5. Sheffield dh
6. Abreu rf
7. Matsui lf
8. Posada c
9. Cano 2b

Uhhhh... that's a pretty good lineup.

This shouldn't even be called a trade.  It's a straight-up free agent signing of Lidle and Abreu.  Did the Phillies get anything at all valuable in return?

Thank God we didn't trade, say, League and Purcey for Lugo.

Should JP see if there are any takers for Lilly, Cat, Speier, or Molina? IMO, he should probably just let the season play itself out.

First, the Jays still have an outside shot at the playoffs (remember, everyone wrote off Minnesota a month or so ago). Second, the trade market for good young talent doesn't seem to be that great (the Abreu and Lee trades are good examples). Third, those four players could produce several 1st-round picks next year. Fourth, we might want to try to re-sign one or more of them, and dumping them summarily mid-season might make them think twice about coming back.

You have no qualms about a 39 year old Gary Sheffield out in RF?

Plenty, I assure you. Plenty. . But I'm pretty sure that Sheffield will be a significantly better hitter than Abreu in 2007. And 2008. And maybe 2009.

Abreu looks to me like a player hitting his decline phase. Not everybody keeps their game together into their late 30s. Abreu still draws an enormous number of walks. But where's the rest of his offense? He's moving from one of the best hitter's parks in all of baseball into Yankee Stadium. You know, a pitcher's park. In the American League. That's not going to help him.

"Abreu looks to me like a player hitting his decline phase. Not everybody keeps their game together into their late 30s."

I'm sure glad Troy Glaus didn't win the home run derby. Abreau has not been the same since lasy July. Or maybe he just fell off the same cliff as Sammy Sosa?

 

What cliff? He's never been a big homerun hitter. I don't even know why he was in last year's homerun derby (except that he's apparently really good in homerun derbies).

It's true that this season would suggest that he's in decline, but he hasn't exactly morphed into Lance Blankenship.

It will be interesting to see what effect this has on JP’s thinking leading up to the all star break. The argument that the Yanks and BoSox are as beatable as they’ll ever be seems to hold less weight now, especially given the separation between the Blue Jays and their divisional rivals.

Between this trade and the west coast road trip, it seems a lot of fans have given up hope.

For his part, JP is signed for five years, and has a solid nucleus to build around. As disappointing as it is for him, the team and the fans, it seems the prudent move may be to acquire some good young players who could contribute in the coming years.  

Given the uncertain status of our free agents, and Wells’ this could be a drastically different team come opening day 2007.

“Third, those four players could produce several 1st-round picks next year”

JP has to decide whether he’d prefer more advanced prospects coming in a trade, or fresh draft picks to start at the bottom of the ladder. Also, whether the guys he coudl get in a trade would more valuable that the picks we'd get for free agents. Either way, (assuming the CBA isn’t radically changed) our farm system should receive a much needed shot in the arm.

The Milton Bradley walk-off homerun was the turning point of this season in my opinion.  The odds of making the playoffs at this point are quite slim.  I agree with DH, now is the time for the Jays to sell.  There will be too many holes in nexy year's roster should all of the Jays' free-agents walk at the end of this year.  The Jays will need a SP, a DH, a SS and a C, and they won't have the funds to fill all of those holes adequately.  I'm convinced that Lilly, Speier, Catalanotto and one of either Zaun or Molina could fetch some major league ready talent that can be controlled for years to come. 

I'd even be satisfied if J.P. traded Vernon Wells while his value was at it's highest and before he entered his free agent year.  I think the writing's on the wall that Wells will not be re-signing with the Jays.  The Angels offered Ervin Santana and Erick Aybar for Miguel Tajada, but the Orioles declined.  I'd see if the Angels would make that trade for Wells if I were J.P., and I'd secure a #3 SP and a SS for 6 years.  If Shealey could be had from the Rockies for Lilly, then the DH spot would probably be secured for 6 years as well.

If the free-agents walk at the end of the year with no talent received in return, then this year will probably be the best shot the Jays will have for a while.  I'd like J.P. to keep the future in mind during the next 20 hours.

 

Rotoworld is reporting that the Yankees didn't have to pick up Abreu's 2008 option, just pay a fee to have Abreu waive the no-trade clause.

Rotoworld is reporting that the Yankees didn't have to pick up Abreu's 2008 option, just pay a fee to have Abreu waive the no-trade clause.

At Baseball Think Factory I read that the Phillies will be the ones paying the $1.5 million fee to Abreu, however I have no solid reference for this [except BTF, and I have no idea if the poster ever found a link to back it up...].

I also wonder if the Jays should sell off some talent; in this market Ted Lilly could fetch a king's ransom.  I said this in another thread (and no one commented on it, so I assumed it was ridiculous, an imagining of my fevered brain), but Wells, Lilly and Janssen to the Angels would fetch Santana and Weaver package.  I love Wells, but the Jays need some young, reliable pitching. 

Ironic that at the beginning of the season, I was terribly worried about the offense, but very confident in the pitching staff.  A lot can happen in a half season.

 

One door closes another opens...

In this the end of 06? I'm not convinced.

But even if it is...07 dawns anew, just 5 months early.

If I was JP I'd trade NOW, the innards of this team are those of a contender. We don't need high draft choices that'll be ready in three years we need young, proven, but still developing, studs so we can contend the next three years.

Our key to getting to the next level the next few years will be what JP gets now, and this off-season, and the development of McGowan, League, Rosario, Marcum, Janssen, Accardo. Our WORSE case senario for the rest of the year is watching these youngsters come around. If at least three of these guys don't blossom our beloved Jays wilt.

I'll pray for the Jays brass if they become sellers. Everyone from the owner down to the GM has told all the fans this season and going foward was all about winning.

Trading established players for prospects at this point is raising the flag and basically telling the fans we have quit this season on trying to make the playoffs.

If I was a fringe fan that bought into the hype and the message from the Jays this season and bought season tickets/mini pack, a firesale of talent would make me furious.
There's no way they're getting my money next season.

The Jays need to get all the non-hardcore fans they can get.

I'm not sure how good Santana is, but there is no way--absolutely no way--the Angels are dealing Weaver. He's terrific.

The Jays are in a predicament. On the one hand, the Jays do have a good core of young or relatively young talent--Halladay, Burnett, Wells, Rios, Glaus, Overbay, Ryan, Hill, League, the newly-emergent Johnson.

The problem is that Vernon--either their best, or second-best player, depending on your point of view--is likely gone this year or next. I would love for him to re-up, but (1) he's going to be very, very expensive; and (2) every indication seems to be that he wants to go to Texas. (By the way, I read in the NYT today that Wells and Michael Johnson talk "four or five" times a week, and that their Arlington wives are also close. Not that this is news, but still...all roads do seem to lead to the Lone Star state.)

The second problem is that we're at risk of losing four or more useful players (Lilly, Speier, Cat, and Molina. BTW, is Zaun a free agent too?) after this year, and our farm system is depleted. Virtually all our prime pitching prospects--Purcey, Banks, Rosario, Romero, McGowan--have plateaued or stalled out this year.

So, if you're JP, your strategy starts with the question: what is my budget for the next 3+ years? Then: can I sign Vernon long-term? If not, do I keep him around for a run in 2007, or trade him in the off-season? (Hard to see JP shipping Vernon off to California or anywhere else in the next two days.) Then- who else do I go after in the off-season?

The one thing that JP did last off-season was come up with a plan (an intelligent one), and execute it pretty much to perfection. I think he needs to do the same thing this time around.

 

er, Michael Young, not Johnson.

By the way, I read in the NYT today that Wells and Michael Johnson talk "four or five" times a week, and that their Arlington wives are also close. Not that this is news, but still...all roads do seem to lead to the Lone Star state.

I heard on the radio that Brandon League and Shane Komine talk all the time and surf together frequently.  So I guess League is headed for Oakland.

Letting BJ Ryan, AJ Burnett, and Troy Glaus go would be a firesale.

Trading away soon-to-be free agents like Lilly and Cat, who are contributing, small, pieces of the big puzzle is not a fire sale.

While I agree that selling usefully minor parts of the team  that will soon require pay raises that may or may not be deserving of such doesn't make people want to buy tickets for series in September, there is still a boatload of things to sell the team on for next year.

• Come see the 2006 Cy young Winner.
• Come see the 2006 AL MVP and Silver Slugger, Vernon Wells
• Come see saves leader, BJ Ryan
• Come see 45 home run hitter, Troy Glaus
• Come see the 100 MPH AJ Burnett have his scheduled 35 starts.
• Come see one of the best offenses in the majors

Of course I'm exaggerating quite a bit, but they're all realistic things to sell the team on that could easily happen in the next two months. Not to mention, they are close to posting the best record since 1993.

Next year's rotation is the only thing stopping the team from contending further--and I could even spot improvements there, with some creativity and maybe a breakout year from one of the four possible candidates.

There's still alot to be excited for next year.

I heard on the radio that Brandon League and Shane Komine talk all the time and surf together frequently.  So I guess League is headed for Oakland.

But League has more major league service time than Komine, so Komine will have to come to Toronto.

By the way, I read in the NYT today that Wells and Michael Johnson talk "four or five" times a week, and that their Arlington wives are also close. Not that this is news, but still...all roads do seem to lead to the Lone Star state.

I'm going to assume that most people on here have some friends. How often do you talk to your friends?

If I talked to my friends four times a week, they'd probably think I died. Must be a slow day in the New York Times headquarters.

What sells Jays tickets in Toronto is winning not individual players. The Jays didn't recieve a spike in attendance when they signed perhaps the greatest pitcher in MLB history in Roger Clemens.

If the Jays trade away players like Zaun, Cat, Lilly, etc.... this isn't going to impress the casual fan. And of course the Jays would be contradicting their own message from the beginning of the season.

If 2004 was the Season From Hell than 2006 is the Season Of Frustration.

Idle hands are the workshop of the devil. The devil produces trade speculation.

You know who could really use Lilly? The Mets. A decent starter for them could really put them over the top.

I would strongly support dealing Lilly and Speir - the old 'pitchers bring more at the trade deadline, hitters in the offseason'  truism is, uhh, true - look at what the Nationals got for their relievers.  Lilly would instantly be the best starter on the market, and if good, affordable, major-league ready young talent came back in exchange, the team might actually not suffer much on the field.  I'd sooner see a better team next year then wait for draft picks to pan out - and it's not like the Riccardi regime has a great track record at the draft table. 

Molina and Cat could be swapped if there was a great offer, but Wells?  No way - the fan sitting on the fence debating whether to support the team next year might not mind losing a frustrating 3rd starter or a reliever - but Wells is the face of the franchise.  Any Wells trade should happen in the offseason when Riccardi can do his best to offset the lost credibility by adding more talent. 

Sanjay, the question (and I think it's a very fair one) is whether Vernon is truly deserving of that sort of salary. He's certainly shown he can be one of the best players in the game this year and in 2003. But there are two years wedged in the middle of that where he was basically Torii Hunter. As much as I love V-Dub, I'd be awfully wary of assuming he can be an MVP, franchise type player on a consistent basis.

That aside, any talk of trading him strikes me as pretty silly. Unless this team is out of the race at the trade deadline in '07, I'd be outraged at the front office for moving Wells.

It's definitely been a disappointing seven games. If I'm JP, I probably hold onto Lilly and Catalanotto and try to trade Molina and Speier. Lilly should fetch a first round pick with the season he's having and, without him, we're down to 2 consistent starters for the season's final two months (Halladay and, presumably, one of Chacin/Burnett each turn through the rotation). Cat should be retained so that we may try and resign him.  He's showing no signs of slowing down and with him still in the fold we have a bit of leverage, should we need to move Wells this winter. Plus, our system isn't exactly teeming with outfielders. Ideally, I'd say that 2 of Cat, Reed and a RH free agent occupy the LF/DH spot most games next year.

Molina is an obvious trading piece, though I'm not certain any contender would want him. Atlanta might have, to match with McCann, but they look like they're done after this weekend. I suppose he could be of some use to St. Louis or Minnesota though. Thoughts?

And, finally, Speier. I love the guy. He's reliable, likable, does everything that's asked of him and he's death on lefties. And durable! In other words, you'd think his value would be outstanding. If he could be turned into a shortstop (bummer Betemit's been moved already), it's a no-brainer. He could be a fit just about anywhere. I'll miss him dearly, but he can be replaced by Frasor and should bring us something of significant value. At this point, Schoeneweis could be put in the same boat, though he'll bring less back and might be easier to resign.

Ron,

I'm not advocating that the Jays trade away established players for prospects still in A ball, or that they trade any core players who are locked up beyond 2007.

The fact is that Lilly et al., are most likely going to be gone next year, and the picks the Jays may get as a result will be a few years away.  Instead of allowing that to happen, I'd rather see them trade their departing players for young players who can contribute now and in the upcoming years.

Finally, I don't think trading players is going to scare fringe fans away.  The attendance this year (or lack thereof) has proven that the only way spectators in Toronto will come to watch this team play is if they're in first place.  I think selling now will give the Jays the best chance to be in first place for the next few years.

Eric,

I think 2003 and 2006 are true indications of what V-Dub can actually accomplish with proper protection at the plate.  2004 was a year where he and Delgado both faced lay-offs due to injuries. In 2005 he only had Hillenbrand as his protection, somone who hit 18 HR's all year long.  With Glaus providing protection this year, Wells is on pace to smash his HR and RBI totals.  Wells already has the potential to be a 35-40 HR / 120 RBI and I think he should be paid accordingly. 

whomever said that lilly could be a fit with the mets -- that's brilliant. if beane wanted heilman and milledge for zito, i'd be great with heilman for lilly straight-up. that'd (potentially) take care of a rotation spot, no?

Trading Vernon Wells now is ridiculous. At least see where negotiations go in the offseason and even then, ride him for the first 4 months and then see where you are.

As for the six free agents to be, 2 of them are catchers and only Molina is in play for a trade for me. Obviously, nobody's untouchable but Zaunie's terrific and I can't stand watching the man with the frying pan for a glove anymore. I know you can't get much for Molina, but I don't care. The others are Lilly, Cat, Speier, and Schoeneweis. I say start wheeling and dealing and see how much young major league talent (which you can control for the next while) you can get. Are there anymore Accardos out there?

This offseason, I don't see the Jays signing big name free agents. I hope JP will play it like the offseason of '03/'04 when names like Ted Lilly, Pat Hentgen, Bruce Chen, Kerry Ligtenberg, Miguel Batista, Justin Speier, Valerio De Los Santos, Terry Adams, Chris Gomez, Jason Frasor, Sean Douglass and in the first week of the season Michael Nakamura, and Gregg Zaun were brought in without excessive salaries or loss of talent. Not all of these moves worked out, but they never do. Look 3 years later and Lilly, Speier, Frasor, and Zaun are still around and Batista was used to get Glaus. That's not a bad haul. In fact I have far more faith in JP when he's forced to utilize the bargain bin, because coming from Oakland it's kind of familiar to him. I also feel he did a great job when he was given Uncle Ted's money in '05/'06. The only one I disagreed with was Molina. I refuse to judge the 5 year deals 4 months into them.

The core in '07: Wells, Rios, Glaus, Overbay, Hill, Johnson, Halladay, Burnett, Ryan, League, Accardo. That's not bad. It just needs filling in and rounding out. But, they need to start getting some of those cheap pieces in the next 15 hours. I hope the Jays can make a start on '07 now because it's in the best long term interest of the team.