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Ted Lilly apparently will not be pitching for the Blue Jays next season, narrowing his decision to the Cubs and Yankees.

Jason Schmidt cashes in today - 3 years, $47 million.


UPDATE (9:45 pm): Lilly to the Cubs is official now.  Four years, $40 million.



Winter Meetings - Wednesday | 164 comments | Create New Account
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KevinJaysFan - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 02:40 PM EST (#160108) #

According to Rotoworld, the Jays are out of the Lilly sweepstakes:

Agent Larry O'Brien said Wednesday that the Blue Jays are out of the running for free agent Ted Lilly.
"It's down to the Cubs and the Yankees," O'Brien said. It's unclear whether the Yankees have made an offer. That could come with the two sides due to meet later the afternoon. The Cubs have offered $40 million-$44 million for four years.

Source:  http://www.rotoworld.com/content/Home_MLB.aspx

I guess the focus will now turn to Meche...

dave - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 02:46 PM EST (#160112) #
China fan - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 03:03 PM EST (#160124) #

     Lilly has reportedly decided that it was "time for a change in scenery."   So he probably never had any intention of signing with Toronto -- but was merely using the Jays to juice up the bidding war.   Of course he's entitled to do that, and of course a lot of Bauxites will say good riddance to the guy.   But for those of us who would have liked to see Toronto retain its 3rd-best starting pitcher:  can we try to analyze what it was that drove Lilly away?  Is it time to revisit the shoving match with Gibbons and see whether that was a factor, despite their denials?   Or did JP manage to offend him with blunt words at some point?   I'm curious why someone would want to leave a competitive team that was offering a generous salary.

    Of course it's possible that Lilly's agent is fibbing and Lilly is simply going for the biggest bucks.  But let's take his agent's words at face value for a moment.  If it's true that Lilly wanted to leave Toronto, was he mishandled in Toronto?  Were there whispering campaigns against him?  Was there a history of tension that led to the blow-up with Gibbons and now we are seeing the final result of those tensions?

Marc Hulet - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 03:09 PM EST (#160126) #
I felt all along that the only reason the Jays were in the running from Lilly's perspective was the run up the $$$ amount. I think this is clearly the case. His desire to make the playoffs is definitely not No. 1 if he is looking at the Giants or Cubs. The Jays have a better team.
Four Seamer - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 03:34 PM EST (#160138) #

So there has to be another explanation:  Lilly didn't like the Jays, or the Jays didn't like Lilly.

Colour me unconvinced.  If the Jays had no interest in Lilly, why did they spend all this time in faux pursuit, in order to help him cash in somewhere else?  If they weren't interested, they would have given him the Bengie Molina treatment instead, rather than wasting time and effort that could have been spent more productively elsewhere (see Lugo, Julio).

The simplest explanation is usually the most likely one.  At the end of the day, Lilly felt it was time to simply move on.  I can't say I'm surprised, since he never seemed all that comfortable here.  He and Arnsberg never seemed to really get along, and obviously he and Gibbons had their differences.  Thanks for the three years, Ted, and don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Matthew E - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 03:46 PM EST (#160147) #

Given the choice between the two outcomes, I'd rather see Lilly sign with the Cubs than the Yankees for two reasons:

1. Lilly's a good pitcher and I'm not interested in the Yankees getting any stronger

2. The Jays would be better off with the Cubs' draft pick than the Yankees' draft pick.

Pistol - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 03:49 PM EST (#160150) #
Quick correction - Lilly is a 'B' player so the compensation is just a sandwich pick.  The signing team gives up no pick for Lilly.
melondough - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:03 PM EST (#160167) #

On the Fan 590, Wilner just said that the Jays have all but signed Stairs (yeah!) and JP has now turned his attention to adding only 1 starter, naming Josh Towers as his #5 guy.

Pistol - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:06 PM EST (#160168) #
If I've counted correctly the sandwich round is currently at 23 picks, and potentially up to 38 picks.  The 'potential' number will drop when players accept arbitration by tomorrow.

There's only 4 'A' players remaining.  Two will be signed for sure - Zito and Suppan, and Graffanino and Walker are up in the air.  There's 11 'B' players remaining, at least half of who will sign with other teams.  Suppan is the only player remaining that would cost the Jays a pick.

So the 'sandwich round' might as well be called the '2nd round' because that's what it'll be - around 30 picks.

Since there's so many sandwich picks the Rangers pick for Cat will either be pick 16 or around pick 75 if the Rangers sign Zito or Suppan.  So cheer for someone other the Rangers to get Zito.

The Jays currently have 2 first round picks (16, 21), 3 sandwich picks when Lilly signs (approx 38, 47, 51), and 2 second rounders (approx 81, 84).

Flex - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:10 PM EST (#160169) #
"naming Josh Towers as his #5 guy"

So in other words he just threw in the towel on the season. I think that's a bizarre turnaround for Ricciardi and suggests a rather petulant reaction to the Lilly disappointment. Either that, or he has new positional-player plans for the other $8 million he was going to spend. Either way, it's very very weird.



The_Game - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:14 PM EST (#160171) #
How is putting Josh Towers in the #5 role (and he's obvously going to have to earn it, they're not going to just put him there), "throwing the towel in on the season?" Explain that one to me.
huckamaniac - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:23 PM EST (#160173) #
I think Towers was sort of name JP picked out of the air. I took "Josh Towers" as Towers/Marcum/Janssen/McGowan etc.
Axil - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:25 PM EST (#160174) #
If Colorado wants Vernon Wells I would trade him there for one of their young pitchers, Jason Jennings and Matt Holiday. How likely is that to happen?

I don't think this team is going anywhere with the bullpen they have. Of course BJ is one of the best closers in the majors and League can do an honourable job in setup but Frasor seems more like a middle reliever to me. Accardo is still learning, Scott Downs is a good long man and can Brian Tallet really be trusted two seasons in a row? I think we need s setup man who we all know Gibbons can trust and can come out and get those outs, like David Riske perhaps?

Dan C - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:31 PM EST (#160175) #
I'm happy to see Lilly gone. Hes not a pitcher thats worth 10+ mill a year. Also if mid rotation pitchers are getting 11 mill a year, then what will AJ do when 2008 is finished...he will probably opt out of his contract.
Flex - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:40 PM EST (#160179) #
Explain that one to me.

It has been said to Ricciardi (by Blair), and he has not disagreed, that the Blue Jays will be a legit contender only when Josh Towers is no longer in the rotation. He is the epitome of a gum-and-binder-twine solution to a hole in the pitching staff. With his marginal stuff, he was always on the knife edge of failure, and last year he felt face forward into failure, splat. His weakness is apparent for all to see. Giving a rotation spot to someone who, the year before, lost more than four times the number of games that he won when nothing was physically wrong with him is not the act of a general manager who has a hope of contention.
Pistol - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:50 PM EST (#160180) #
If Colorado wants Vernon Wells I would trade him there for one of their young pitchers, Jason Jennings and Matt Holiday. How likely is that to happen?

I had a similar thought until I looked closer - Holliday is really good and is just entering arbitration for the first time this year.  He'll be considerably cheaper than Wells with similar production.  Holliday had 7.3 WARP and Wells had 6.2 WARP this year.  I doubt Colorado would trade Holliday straight up for Wells. 
Paul D - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 05:53 PM EST (#160181) #
It has been said to Ricciardi (by Blair), and he has not disagreed, that the Blue Jays will be a legit contender only when Josh Towers is no longer in the rotation. He is the epitome of a gum-and-binder-twine solution to a hole in the pitching staff.

If Riccardi feels this way, he never should have signed Towers to his new contract.  Given that he did sign Towers to the new contract, the only possible conclusion is that at one point he had faith in Towers, and thought that he could pitch in the AL East.  So either half a season of bad pitching changed his mind, or, Riccardi still has some faith in Towers, and thinks he could be a serviceable 5th starter.
The_Game - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:04 PM EST (#160183) #
While signing these guys would be a nice luxery, I just don't see the big reason to do it when you can probably get the same kind of production out of a Casey Janssen, a Shawn Marcum, or even Josh Towers, who has actually proven that he can pitch at this level, in the AL East. (and it wasn't that long ago, either) Giving a rotation spot to whoever's the hottest coming out of ST of these 3 compared to spending 10M on another mediocre pitcher on a long-term deal really isn't going to wreck the season, and it's certainly not an act of throwing in the towel. It's just not being a total idiot with your money, and realizing that the market isn't good at all for signing pitching (or signing pretty much anything, for that matter).
Jonny German - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:11 PM EST (#160185) #
Flex, December 6, 2006:

With his marginal stuff, [Towers] was always on the knife edge of failure, and last year he felt face forward into failure, splat.

Flex, November 15, 2005:, when Towers signed a 2-year $5.2M contract.

Towers deserves this contract, no doubt.
...
Who is Kingsley Zissou and why is he crapping all over a good man and a good pitcher?
....
And steady 4th or 5th starters who have a way of staying healthy and keeping you in games and don't get rattled on the mound and seem to be learning their craft more and more every year do not grow on trees!

Ryan C - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:24 PM EST (#160191) #
I don't think this team is going anywhere with the bullpen they have. Of course BJ is one of the best closers in the majors and League can do an honourable job in setup but Frasor seems more like a middle reliever to me

If he's not closing, and he's not setting up the 8th, then wouldn't that make him a middle reliever?  Or is there some distinction between "7th inning setup guy" and "middle relief"?  I've always understood the two to be fairly interchangeable.
Wildrose - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:29 PM EST (#160193) #
We'll see where Lilly ends up,  Pettite has  recently  announced he'll  play  next year , one of these guys will be a Yankee.
Dave Till - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:31 PM EST (#160195) #
I can't blame the Jays for giving up on Lilly. He's a good pitcher - albeit unreliable - but they don't want to pay him more than they're paying Halladay and Burnett.

I don't see good times ahead for Ted. Wrigley is a hitter's park, and Lilly might be a bit too combustible for Yankee Stadium.

Nick - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:36 PM EST (#160197) #

Strike 2:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/baseball

My guess is that JP will turn to the trade market to find a starter.  I don't see any of the rest of the free agents coming to Toronto.

Sister - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 06:59 PM EST (#160199) #
If the Jays do strike out on both Lilly and Meche, I'd like to see JP aim to sign a lower tiered free agent pitcher. Someone like:

Tomo Okha (adjusted ERA+ over the last 4 years of 119, 122, 103, 93), who is 30 years old. Perhaps last year is evidence of a declining trend or maybe just an off year.

I guess the question is whether Ohka represents much of an upgrade over other potential number four starters in the Jays system already (Towers/Marcum/McGowan)

Jordan - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 09:18 PM EST (#160245) #
If the Jays don't get Meche, Julio Lugo and his 4 yr/$36M deal will be an even less pleasant sight across the diamond at Fenway the next four years.

We still don't know the official terms of Lilly's deal, or even if it is official -- remember Rod Barajas -- but I'd be happy to see him in the NL, because he really has good stuff and could turn into a Cy Young contender if he ever sufficiently felt the urge (especially in that league and in that division). I expect the Jays offered four years at $40M, and that's as high as I would ever go with Lilly -- if they bowed out beyond that point, good for them. We'll see what it all looks like after the dust settles.

I'm still hoping Toronto can land Meche, but Lilly's possible signing with the Cubs doesn't preclude them from getting Meche too -- really, the Jays used the same formula last year: sign a major free-agent early (in the Cubs' case, Soriano) to show everyone you're serious, and be willing to pay a lot of money to close the deal on subsequent FAs. Meche may quite reasonably be attracted to the Cubs because of all their off-season momentum -- momentum the Jays, who lost on the Lilly bidding, don't currently have -- and the Lou Piniella effect, which carries no weight with people like us but does matter to players who've worked under him before. Meche, I repeat, is a gamble, but he's not a boneheaded gamble, and I'd much, much prefer to see him in the rotation than Josh Towers (whom we probably will have to see anyway).

Re a possible Wells trade: it may become more necessary if the Jays fail to sign Meche. But remember, other teams would have more leverage, knowing the Jays were now in dire need of pitching. It's never good to negotiate from a position of weakness, real or perceived, and if the Jays strike out on both their FA pitching targets, that's where they'll be.

And yeah, right now, that's a really ugly bench. I haven't been impressed with how the Jays have gone about filling it. Stairs does give them a legitimate LH PH bat off the bench, but his defensive value is close to zero. John Hattig as the backup at third base does not excite me.
Jordan - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 09:20 PM EST (#160248) #
Dave Bush would've looked awefully nice right about now.

Lyle Overbay looks better. And I like Bush -- I was one of his earliest supporters. In this league and this division, he'd be a step ahead of Marcum and Janssen, but not a solid mid-rotation starter by any means.
Magpie - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 09:35 PM EST (#160255) #
Keith Law and Ken Rosenthal prefer Lilly over Zito, and Law even ranked Meche ahead of him.

Then Keith Law has completely lost his mind. Or I want whatever it is he's smoking.
Jordan - Wednesday, December 06 2006 @ 10:53 PM EST (#160267) #
Rosenthal has the Garcia deal. At first blush, looks like a good trade for Philly. Gonzalez has a seriously live arm, though.
Joanna - Thursday, December 07 2006 @ 01:47 PM EST (#160359) #

So, so far these winter meetings have been way less fun than last years.  Oh Eeyore, why did you forsake us for the Cubs, who offered you the same money?

Theories? He really likes goats and anything to do with them.  He practiced on Gibby and now he gets to fullfill his life long dream of punching Lou Pinella.  He wants to witness first hand when Pinella's head explodes from the pressure of trying to win in Chicago.  He needs to play for fans who are as sad as he is.

As for Meche.  Dumped for the Royals? Agh.  I wish sometimes the players would just say "They offered me more money and I get to be a leader" rather than some BS excuse of "playing for a smaller town, less pressure."  What the hell is that?  I think the mistake was taking him to a Leafs game.  He saw their play in the 3rd period and decided to stay the hell away from the city.

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