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Presented here, without (much) comment, are the would-be All Star rosters as contructed using 2007 Win Probability Added.

  • Rosters are each 33 players deep, with 21 position players and 12 pitchers (just like the real All Star rosters).
  • For position players, the top two in WPA at each position in each league are selected as starter and backup, respectively. After each of the eight positions and eight backups for those positions have been selected, the next five players in WPA will be selected at large, regardless of position.
  • Designated hitters are eligible for at large selection only.
  • Outfielders are sorted into LF, CF and RF. If a player can improve his placement with regard to either spot on the depth chart or making the cut, he may move to the "easier" outfield position in the defensive spectrum. For example, if the second ranking CFer has a greater WPA than the best LFer, that CFer will be listed as the starting LFer.
  • For pitchers, no regard is given to the starter/reliever dichotomy for the purposes of making the cut.
  • Position players and starting pitchers must be qualified, relievers need not be.
  • If, when the process is completed for each league, a team is unrepresented, the player on that team closest to the cut will bump the lowest ranked player at the position(s) for which he is eligible. If the bumpee is the sole representative of his team, then the next-lowest ranked (using the aforementioned criteria) will be bumped. That's law school paying off right there.
  • WPA stats are as of this afternoon.

National League
(starters in bold)

Postion Player Team WPA
C R. Martin Dodgers 1.23
C B. McCann Braves 0.21
1B A. Pujols Cardinals 3.13
1B P.Fielder Brewers 2.67
1B T. Helton Rockies 2.15
1B A. Gonzalez Padres 1.96
2B C. Utley Phillies 2.35
2B K. Johnson Braves 1.54
3B A. Ramirez Cubs 2.61
3B M. Cabrera Marlins 1.52
3B C. Jones Braves 1.35
SS T. Tulowitzki Rockies 2.60
SS E. Renteria Braves 1.53
LF B. Bonds Giants 3.88
LF M. Holliday Rockies 2.56
LF X. Nady Pirates 1.41
CF H. Pence Astros 2.13
CF A. Rowand Phillies 1.66
RF B. Hawpe Rockies 2.56
RF K. Griffey Reds 1.59
RF S. Victorino Phillies 1.48
SP J. Peavy Padres 2.97
SP B. Penny Dodgers 2.68
SP C. Young Padres 2.48
SP J. Maine Mets 2.34
SP T. Gorzelanny Pirates 2.14
SP I. Snell Pirates 2.11
RP T. Saito Dodgers 3.29
RP H. Bell Padres 2.53
RP B. Wagner Mets 2.35
RP R. Soriano Braves 2.29
RP T. Pena Diamondbacks 2.27
RP J. Colome Nationals 1.79

The Nationals were unrepresented, so Colome bumped Jason Isringhausen and his 2.07 WPA. The Braves and Padres have four players each on the team, while the Phillies, Pirates, Dodgers and Rockies have three.

American League
(starters in bold)

Postion Player Team WPA
C V. Martinez Cleveland 2.86
C J. Posada Yankees 1.11
1B J. Morneau Twins 1.41
1B P. Konerko White Sox 1.18
1B K. Youkilis Red Sox 1.12
2B P. Polanco Tigers 2.31
2B D. Pedroia Red Sox 0.84
3B A. Rodriguez Yankees 3.46
3B M. Lowell Red Sox 0.71
SS D. Jeter Yankees 2.80
SS C. Guillen Tigers 1.53
SS O. Cabrera Angels 1.07
LF M. Ordonez Tigers 3.70
LF C. Crawford Devil Rays 1.11
CF G. Sizemore Cleveland 2.13
CF Ichiro Mariners 1.41
RF V. Guerrero Angels 3.94
RF N. Swisher Athletics 0.99
DH/PH G. Sheffield Tigers 1.15
DH/PH D. Ortiz Red Sox 1.14
DH/PH F. Thomas Blue Jays 0.62
SP D. Haren Athletics 3.20
SP J. Blanton Athletics 2.56
SP S. Shields Devil Rays 2.17
SP J. Guthrie Orioles 1.97
SP J. Garland White Sox 1.86
RP J. Putz Mariners 4.01
RP J. Papelbon Red Sox 2.93
RP R. Betancourt Cleveland 2.87
RP H. Okajima Red Sox 2.56
RP P. Neshek Twins 2.14
RP J. Soria Royals 1.84
RP J. Benoit Rangers 1.30

The Rangers and Blue Jays were unrepresented. Benoit bumped Joe Nathan and his 1.81 WPA, and Thomas bumped Travis Hafner and his 1.03 WPA. Shaun Marcum, Troy Glaus and Matt Stairs were all closer to being the Jays representative based on WPA, but each has missed just enough time to fall short of the playing time qualification standards. Thomas was slightly closer to Hafner than Janssen was to Garland (not Soria, as he is the only Royal on the team).

The Red Sox are represented by six players, while the Tigers and Cleveland each have four on the team.

No, this is not meant to be serious analysis. It is just me having fun with one of my favourite toys - big love to
WPA All Stars | 1 comments | Create New Account
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Alex Obal - Saturday, July 07 2007 @ 03:42 AM EDT (#171258) #
Jeremy Guthrie has has a 4.6 K/BB and his 0.89 WHIP is the best among ERA title qualifiers in either league by a longshot. Second-place Dan Haren clocks in at 0.98. ?!!!??! (incredulous pause) And yet despite his shiny WPA total he only has 4 wins, so he didn't even make the all-star game's 32nd man vote.

Harsh. He's a rookie. What are the odds he ever goes on a run like this again? WPA 1, managers 0.
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