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High-school hotshot pitcher Rick Porcello has apparently been signed to a 4 year major league contract with the Tigers for 7.3 million. Does this make sense? Hmm, let's see. $1.825 million per year. 2 year development time. 50% chance of flameout/arm problem (the Roger Salkeld/Brien Taylor Experience). 25% chance of inconsistency/arm problems (the Kerry Wood Syndrome), 25% chance of greatness (the Dwight Gooden Goldmine). $8-$12 million per year for mediocre starting pitching on the free agent market as your alternative.

Economists, start your calculators.

Posted by Mike Green on Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 10:48 AM EDT.

Porcello to sign | 61 comments | Create New Account

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CaramonLS - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#173009) #

Well, you have to pay for quality. If you take out the 4 years, I think it works out to be about 1.6 million less?

Of course, you could always turn around and spend that money on someone else more proven, like handing Adam Eaton a contract at 4/36?

Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#173011) #

I don't think the money is bad at all. However, doesn't the major league contract mean he has to be in the majors within four years? If he hits any sort of developmental snag (and I'm not even talking about major injury), it could get tricky.

Pistol - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#173014) #

So basically Porcello has to be an average starting pitcher for one season for the contract to pay off.

Interestingly, that contract is more than the (approx) $6.5 million the Jays paid for their entire draft class.

Given how valuable the picks are I find it amusing that the slot values decreased by 10% this year when they're worth a lot more now. If there was just pure free agency rather than the draft process players would get a ton more money.

Mick Doherty - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#173015) #

If there was just pure free agency rather than the draft process players would get a ton more money.

Well, yes, but about 40 percent of the first round talent would end up with the Yankees, Mets. Dodgers and two or three other clubs. Porcello would be choosing between Shea and Fenway or heading out to Chavez Ravine (unless he has some hometown team allegiance of which I am unaware.) Heady decision for an 18-year-old.

christaylor - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#173021) #

High school pitchers are a terrible, terrible gamble. Give me a Marcum or a Janssen any day. That said, a team needs a couple of gambles to pay off, unless said team wants to spend like the Yankees or the Red Sox.

I'm very curious about something - I've read that high school pitchers are less likely to sniff the majors than college pitchers. However, do the numbers bear out that they have a higher ceiling? I mean, given that a high school pitcher reaches the majors, do they out perform (take you pick of whatever advanced metric you want to use, win shares, SNLVAR) the college pitchers who reach the majors - or is the "higher ceiling" of HS pitchers all on the radar gun (there's no denying that HS pitchers are mostly power arms as that's all they have to impress scouts with over college pitchers) and not to be found in anywhere else?

Pistol - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#173023) #

The point was just that they get a lot less now than what they're actually worth.

And when there were a few players that found a loophole becoming free agents they signed with Tampa and Arizona; Matt White and Travis Lee each getting $10 million.

Manhattan Mike - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#173024) #

Consider: the Jays paid about $5.5 million to Ohka, Thomson, Clayton, Phillips, and Zambrano. Was that money better spent than dough the Tigers are giving Porcello? I don't know - I would have rather seen the Jays give a guy like Porcello $7 million than overdraft a guy like Arencibia and pay him $1.5 million.

The only real solution to this nonsense is to have the league set salaries per spot. But that won't ever happen, of course.

R Billie - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#173025) #

I'm trying to recall a study that Baseball America did on the high school versus college debate maybe a year or two ago. Now I think this was all players, not just pitchers.

If I remember right, the chances were a bit better for a college pitcher to make the big leagues, but that's not taking into account whether the player makes it just for a cup of coffee or goes on to have a prolific career.

In terms of the chances of finding and "impact" player (and I don't remember their criteria for that), the odds they came up with were about even in choosing from college and high school.

Assuming their study was sound, that would suggest that it's a player's raw talent and ability that should decide where he gets drafted, not necessarily his age. Travis Snider for instance was clearly a much more polished and physically mature player than most 18 year olds.

If you look at the Dodgers, they seem to excel in finding the high school pitchers who are the best combination of youth and polished mechanics. True, a few of them end up going down with injury and regular attrition, but guys like Chad Billingsley and Jonathon Broxton who do make it seem well equipped to succeed beyond the norm, even if they take a year or two longer to get there than the typical college arm. They took another highly polished prep arm in Chris Withrow this year who is carving up rookie ball as is typical of Dodger pitching draftees.

Meanwhile, the Jays take the opposite risk on an unrefined college arm like David Purcey and his poor control and the eventual arm injury (which I think went hand in hand) have held him back three years post draft.

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#173026) #

How much of a gamble high school pitchers (as opposed to high school hitters say) are is open to question. Teams now control them (and their workloads) for 5 years without having to make a 40 man roster decision. Even in the worst case scenarios- 2 years followed by TJ, the team still gets about 2 years to evaluate recovery and development afterwards.

I would have thought that a good major league organization could do a better and safer job of developing pitching talent than a good college. In any event, in a case like Porcello, it seems that the development should be fairly straightforward. I truly doubt that he has less chance of being a major leaguer than any of the high-school hitters drafted after Heyward (Atlanta's choice with the 14th pick).

MatO - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#173029) #

BP did a study of rounds 1-3 of the draft and came to the conclusion (IIRC) that there was no appreciable difference between drafting HS or college pitchers. There was a slight advantage in drafting college hitters. College pitchers had a much quicker return than HS pitchers for obvious reasons and the question was whether the teams that drafted the HS pitcher would actually be the beneficiaries when the pitcher became a full-time major leaguer. A good example is McGowan who could easily have been traded out of frustration after 7 years in the system.

Since Porcello is on the 40-man then someone, now or later, will have to be dropped or left off. I guess the option clock starts ticking. How may option years are there?

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#173036) #

Cale Iorg was chosen by the Tigers in the sixth round this year, and he too will get above-slot money. Yes, he is Garth's son.

Geoff - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#173037) #

A few questions come to mind:

Does this contract start immediately (this year)?

Is this kid going to be starting, or apprenticing as a middle reliever?

And the ultimate question on my mind, will he be thrust into the limelight, K-Rod style, for this year's playoffs?

Glevin - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#173041) #

I think it's a pretty good gamble. In the grand scheme of things, $7.5 million is nothing over 4 years for a baseball team. I can't imagine how fans of teams like the Pirates must feel all the time. They are giving Matt Morris something like $15 million over the next year and a half but won't spend on draft picks. Teams throw away a tonne of money on players that are easily replacable, spending it on someone who has the potential to have a major impact is not a bad risk.

Thomas - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#173042) #

From Baseball America:

In addition to Porcello, the Tigers are close to wrapping up fifth-rounder Casey Crosby for $745,000 and sixth-rounder Cale Iorg for $1.5 million....MLB recommends that players taken in the sixth round or later not exceed the slot for the last choice (No. 184) in the fifth round, which was $123,300.

The Tigers have completed a slightly over-slot deal with Oklahoma high school lefty Matt Hoffman. A 26th-rounder, Hoffman signed for $175,000.

How is it only slightly overslot to sign a 26th rounder for $175,000 when the maximum for a sixth rounder is $123,000?

With the size of the Jays market I don't think their complaints about the size of draft bonuses carry as much credibility with Selig as KC's and Milwaukee's do, as with the only other penalty being a harsh letter from Selig, I don't see what the team has to lose. (Except of course, if the prospect doesn't pan out, but don't tell me it wasn't reasonably clear that Royce Clayton and Victor Zambrano [and Terry Adams and Tanyon Sturtze and so on] would be a waste of resources before the season began.)

Pistol - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#173043) #

Cale Iorg was chosen by the Tigers in the sixth round this year, and he too will get above-slot money. Yes, he is Garth's son.

Wow, I guess so. Not bad for not having played for a couple years and wasn't all that great as a freshman.

Pistol - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#173045) #

On a slightly more serious note, while the Jays seem to be doing well under JP in rounds 2-5 or so with the current drafting philosophy, I would like to see them avoid any more Royce Claytons and perhaps devote some of that money towards going overslot a couple of times per draft.

With the size of the Jays market I don't think their complaints about the size of draft bonuses carry as much credibility with Selig as KC's and Milwaukee's do, as with the only other penalty being a harsh letter from Selig, I don't see what the team has to lose.

My theory about the Jays sticking to slot money is that they do so because they've received discretionary funds from MLB in the past and have to toe the line as a result. If they still receive it Selig could always threaten to take it away since he could 'argue' that they don't need the extra money if they're going over slot.

But teams that go over slot more than others are generally better off than those that don't. What's the worst farm system that goes over slot?

Mike Green - Tuesday, August 14 2007 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#173053) #

You know, the Jays received money through the Commissioner's office when the Canadian dollar was at a historic low. I somehow doubt that they have repaid the money now that the Canadian dollar is at a historic high (significantly higher than it was in 1977). They really ought to. If the cost of that money is compliance with slot edicts, it wasn't worth it.

Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#173056) #

Give me a Marcum or a Janssen any day.

The last thing we want around here is another Roy Halladay.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#173060) #

But if Halladay had signed a ML contract, there's almost no way he'd still be in the organization.

Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#173063) #

But if Halladay had signed a ML contract

He said high school pitchers are terrible gambles. It's funny how many fans on here are against high school players when the actual stars and high end players on THIS team are high school picks. Are Rios/Wells/Halladay the three best players on the team?

Taking anything but the best player that you can get signed in the draft is foolish, and it's how you end up with Ricky Romero instead of Cameron Maybin.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#173064) #

In this case, taking the best player required giving a major league contract to a high school pitcher. If the Jays had to make that commitment to sign Vernon Wells or Roy Halladay, they certainly would have lost Halladay and quite possibly Wells. And at the time, nobody thought Alex Rios was one of the best players available - he was largely regarded as a signability pick.

Money is just money. I don't care how much you have to spend to sign the best player. But what's the point of spending all that money if you end up losing the player on waivers because he struggles at AAA?

Slim Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#173067) #

The bottom line is pitching is a crap shoot, no matter how much money you pay it. That goes at all levels from the draft through Major League players. Go back and read all of the hype that surrounded Craig Hansen when the Red Sox gave him a Major League contract. He was the "closer of the future" and now appears to be heading towards a career as a journeyman. The Indians gave Jeremy Guthrie a Major League contract out of Stanford a few years back and because of it had to rush his development and were forced to make a decision on him sooner than they would have liked, hence they lose him on waivers. I believe the bottom line is for this draft to be considered functional teams should be allowed to draft who they believe to be the best player on the board, regardless of representation. Whether that involves hard slotting, or some type of tax if you exceed slot, perhaps lost future picks if you exceed slot, I don't know. You can say what you want about an organization being cheap and not paying the premium for "special" talent but even the best evaluators in the world can't tell you what an 18 year old, or 21 year old for that matter, will be contributing when he's 27 or 28. If that special player happens to be a pitcher, then all bets are off.

MatO - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#173068) #

I don't like the idea of giving HS pitchers major league contracts. One of the most important aspects in the development of HS pitchers is patience and it seems to me that a deal like this just legislates patience right out. I have no problem with the money in the deal and maybe the pot could have been sweetened and a normal deal struck instead.

Bailey - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#173072) #

On a slightly related note, how long is it until Luke Hochevar is deemed a bust? So far, he definitely has not been worth that contract he signed.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#173073) #

Best talent is always your goal with draft day, with an eye on how long it will take to develop (add years for HS players with exceptions for the few Ken Griffey types), and what it would take to sign them.

Back in 1990 Atlanta made a signability pick for their top pick in Chipper Jones while the guy everyone saw as #1, Todd Van Poppel, fell to the A's with pick #14 (a high school pitcher). Jones is going to the HOF when he retires, VanPoppel finished at 40-52 5.58 ERA and 4 saves.

That high school pitcher, who had more hype than this years, made it to stay in 1993. I think he signed a ML contract so he had to stick at that point. He didn't have an ERA+ at even 90+ until 2000, a decade after he signed. Just two seasons out of 11 did he get an ERA+ over 90 (one other year was dead on 90) and those were all as a setup man. Chipper Jones didn't make it to stay until '95, thus he would have been lost to Atlanta if he had signed a ML contract back in '90 as well.

Bottom line? If you sign a guy to a ML contract you are just asking for it unless your scouts are 100% sure he is ML ready already (ala John Olerud, Dave Winfield, Jim Abbott - note: all started in the majors right away with success, all were college players).

John Northey - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#173074) #

Via a comment from BBTF...
---------
A MLB contract puts you on the 40 man roster. This does not start your service time. Being on the active roster starts your service clock. Arbitration is determined only on your service time, as is free agency. But if you are on the 40 man roster you must be optioned to the minors if you are not going to be on the active roster. So players with MLB contracts get their option years started right away, as opposed to other draftees whose option years do not begin until a team places them on the 40 man roster (has to be within four years otherwise they are exposed to the Rule 5 Draft). After three option years, a player must be exposed to waivers to be sent to the minors.
----------
So, this means that Porcello is in the majors to stay after 3 years. If he plays this year then this is year one, 2008 year 2, 2009 year 3, 2010 he is in Detroit to stay. Otherwise 2011 he will be there to stay or the Tigers could lose him via waivers to any other team for the waiver wire fee ($50k iirc). In 2011 he will be 23. At 23 Roy Halladay had a historically bad year with a 10.64 ERA and was sent all the way to A ball to rebuild himself. If he signed a ML contract at 19 the Jays would've lost him if any other team thought Halladay had anything special. Odds are Halladay would never have had that special instruction and would've never become the ace we know him as today.

MatO - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#173077) #

Minor correction John. According to the new CBA HS drafts don't need to be put on the 40 man for 5 years and college 4 years (used to be 4 and 3).

paulf - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#173078) #

What happens at the end of this contract if he only has one year of ML service time? Is he stuck on entry-level contracts for the next two years?

John Northey - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#173079) #

MatO, thanks for the correction. That makes the ML contract even a bigger incentive for a prospect to push for then, and makes it worth more to the big league team to not give.

If I was a high level draftee I'd push for the ML contract at first in an effort to suck more bonus money/contract money. Since the bonus is what Bud looks at, try for a bigger per year and/or longer per year contract and emphasise the bonus up front. Given Bud's actions on demanding teams stick to a set amount I could see more teams giving 40 man slots to first round picks which will end up costing more in the long run. Not a smart move, but a Bud move :P

Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#173080) #

If you sign a guy to a ML contract

I didn't even defend Major League contracts. I pointed out that not picking high school pitchers for the sheer fact they are high school pitchers is stupid.

The Tigers are clearly making the right decision across the board here. They have a loaded rotation partically because they are willing to ignore slotting. Porcello might not work out as an individual decision, but taken as a whole it's a strategy that is much sounder then anything JP Riccardi has put together in his time as GM.

MatO - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#173082) #

Actually, JP's strategy seems to have produced a better rotation than the Tigers' "loaded rotation", never mind comparing the two teams' bullpens or the fact that the Tigers play in a pitcher's park

Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#173084) #

JP's strategy

Yes, of course. His strategy to never take high school pitchers has yielded McGowan and Halladay in the first round. Of course the guy he threw the big contract at was a high school pitcher too.

Marcum has been a find, good for JP. I think I'd take Bonderman/Verlander/Miller though, none of whom were given 55 million dollars and an out clause on the off chance they actually stayed healthy. Litsch has a nice ERA but with a 22:24 BB:K ratio and 3.5 K per 9, the ERA is a mirage.

Would you rather have Verlander/Miller/Bonderman/Porcello or Halladay/Burnett/Marcum/Romero for the next 5 years. How about after you take into account the tens of millions more that Halladay and Burnett are owed?

JP's college pitching strategy after what 5 drafts? In 118 starts in 2007, the Jays have had 72 starts made by high school pitchers, 29 made by college pitchers and 17 made by international free agents (including Ohka). If this strategy is really all it's cracked up to be shouldn't they be getting more then 24.5% of their starts from college pitchers after 5 drafts?

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#173085) #

I didn't even defend Major League contracts. I pointed out that not picking high school pitchers for the sheer fact they are high school pitchers is stupid.

No, but plenty of teams that have no problems with high school pitchers also passed on Porcello. Everyone loves the Brewers and Indians' systems, but they didn't take him. The Dodgers certainly aren't afraid of high school pitchers or Scott Boras, and they didn't take him.

High school pitchers are risky, but no, that's not enough reason to pass on them. But a high school pitcher who needs to be on the big league club within three years is insanely risky. You want to sign one of the best players in the draft? Then you have to give Porcello a ML contract. Either your'e willing to give a player whatever he wants, or you have to accept that the costs of signing a player may outweight the benefit.

And the Tigers' rotation? Verlander was a college pitcher. So was Miller. Spending big bucks on a polished college pitcher is completely different from spending it on a high school arm. Porcello is the first high school pitcher Detroit has taken in the first round since 2000. They hadn't even taken one in the second round since 2003. They have virtually no track record in this area, good or bad.

Ryan Day - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#173086) #

Would you rather have Verlander/Miller/Bonderman/Porcello or Halladay/Burnett/Marcum/Romero

Which is a pointless question, since the Jays didn't have the opportunity to draft Verlander or Miller. And while Ricciardi can't take credit for Halladay, Detroit can't take any credit for drafting Bonderman, either.

Ricciardi has never passed on a college pitcher the calibre of Verlander or Miller. And really, taking Verlander second overall is hardly a daring strategy.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#173088) #

For fun, I checked on Kerry Wood. He took 3 years development time, and then gave the Cubs 4 above average years. He'd have been a good buy on the equivalent of a 4 year major league contract at 7.3.

MatO - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#173089) #

What Ryan said.

Seriously. The only above slot player in the Tigers rotation was Miller (he's now hurt). Now he may be a good or great pitcher in the future but he isn't one now. From what I've seen he needs to work on his control and breaking stuff and the Tigers rushed him because the rotation was a mess. The Tigers bullpen is a disaster (how may times can you call up Aquelino Lopez). As for Porcello/Romero let's discuss that three years from now. I know that everything JP does is bad but someone was responsible for assembling the pitching staff.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#173090) #

Bonderman/Verlander/Miller?

Bonderman - drafted 2001 #26 overall (A's), Jays under Gord Ash took Gabe Gross with the #16 pick

Verlander - drafted 2004 2nd overall, Jays didn't pick until #16 with David Purcey

Miller - drafted 2006 6th overall, Jays didn't pick until #14 with Travis Snider

Don't see how anyone can view those as being possibilities for JP. Heck, he might have been the one pushing for Bonderman for all we know as he was working for the A's at the time.

JP deserves lots of shots, but Detroit's big guns were never options for JP to get. Feel free to blast Ash for taking Gabe Gross though.

Manhattan Mike - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#173091) #

We can, however, criticize J.P. for the following:

1) 2007 - not using one of his two, replaceable (next year, if he didn't sign Porcello) first round picks on Porcello.

2) 2005 - drafting Ricky Romero ahead of Troy Tulowitzki (#7 - wouldn't it be nice to have him playing short for the Jays for the next few years), Mike Pelfrey (#8), Cameron Maybin (#10), and (to a lesser degree) Clay Buchholz (#42). Romero was an overdraft at the time, but it could be too early to pass judgement.

3) 2004 - drafting David Purcey ahead of Phil Hughes.

4) 2002 - drafting Russ Adams (#14) ahead of Scott Kazmir (#15), Nick Swisher (#16), Cole Hamels (#17), Jeremy Guthrie (#22), Jeff Francoeur (#23), Joe Blanton (#24), and Matt Cain (#25).

Pistol - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#173092) #

And really, taking Verlander second overall is hardly a daring strategy.

Actually, Verlander's performance didn't match his stuff. His walk rate was pretty high in college. BA had him ranked as the #7 prospect that year.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#173093) #

This certainly wasn't intended to be a place to discuss Ricciardi's drafting prowess. It is a fact that the first round college pitchers (Purcey, Jackson, Romero) he selected have not progressed as I am sure that he would have hoped. But, drafting pitching is always a crapshoot. For instance, in 2004, there were 4 high school pitchers drafted between Purcey and Jackson- Scott Elbert, Phil Hughes, Kyle Waldrop and Eric Hurley. They've all had their minor league moments, and I'd bet that one turns out to be real good (my money's on Hughes, sigh), but you don't really know.

Or to look at it another way, in 2000, the high school pitchers drafted in the first round in order were: Mike Stodolka, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips, Joe Torres, Sean Burnett, Boof Bonser, Adam Wainwright, Dustin McGowan, Dustin Mosely, Bob Keppel and Derek Thompson.

The criticism of Litsch is really ridiculous. He's a 24th round draft pick, who at age 22, has done very well in the high minors, and held his own in the majors (FIP of 4.94).

The point here was not JP, but the general question of major league contracts to high school pitchers.

Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#173095) #

JP deserves lots of shots, but Detroit's big guns were never options for JP to get.

I'm not attempting to say that JP could have gotten the same pitchers as Detroit. Someone said that drafting high school pitchers is risky. I was pointing out that JP seems to believe this yet has a rotation that is highly dominated by high school pitchers.

Giving high school pitchers major league contracts is another story. My point about this specific contract is that Detroit have put together some tremendous prospects by paying over slot in general and not being afraid to take risks in the amature draft. Porcello's contract may or may not work out, but even if it doesn't I agree with their aggressive strategy of drafting the best players available and paying over slot when they deem necessary.

Verlander had horrible numbers in college, he walked the ballpark and high ERAs in a mid-level conference, so it was quite a good job of scouting to take him second. Bonderman wasn't drafted by Detroit but they paid a pretty penny at the time for a pitcher who hadn't pitched above A and was one year out of high school. Again, I'd say trading Jeff Weaver for Bonderman is a pretty nice piece of scouting, not even including the dollars that were saved.

MatO - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#173096) #

If I had my druthers then I would never draft a pitcher because they'll just drive you crazy but you need 12 of them on a roster these days. Anyway, there were 26 picks before Purcello was chosen, not just picks 16 and 21.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#173097) #

Porcello + Purcey = Purcello, MatO? :0

Jim - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 05:20 PM EDT (#173099) #

The criticism of Litsch is really ridiculous.

It's not so much criticism, just a realization that the ERA might be a little misleading. Walking as many as you strike out and only striking out 3.5 per 9 isn't a formula for long term success. Clearly it's 100x more then you ever get from the average 24th round pick, and it's a great success for that reason alone, but I'm not quite ready to put him in Marcum or even Janssen's class quite yet.

Manhattan Mike - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#173102) #

Anyway, there were 26 picks before Purcello was chosen, not just picks 16 and 21. Clearly. And a big market club like LA certainly could have afforded to draft and sign Porcello with the #20 pick (though the Hochevar situation from two years back could have put a damper on their desire to draft Porcello). But a reasonable counterargument could be made that the Jays had the ability to take more risks with their #21 pick (at the very least) since it was their 2nd pick of the first round and the team had three supplement first rounders. Only Texas (#'s 17 and 24) and San Francisco (#'s 10 and 22) had more than one pick before Porcello was selected. To overdraft Arencibia with that pick instead of taking a risk on Porcello seems like a wrong move. History will decide whether my angst two months ago was justified or not.

MatO - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#173103) #

My Purcello will have twice the chance of success. If he fails as a lefty he'll just switch to his right hand.

This would have been a tough year to fire a lot of money at a player with signability issues since they had so many high picks to sign unless Ted Rogers doubled a draft budget that was already the highest in team history. With no 2nd or 3rd rounder, a year like 2006 would have been more plausible to try that not that Snider was a bad pick.

Pistol - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#173106) #

This would have been a tough year to fire a lot of money at a player with signability issues since they had so many high picks to sign unless Ted Rogers doubled a draft budget that was already the highest in team history.

Unless you're really bad at drafting it pays off to spend money today to save money tomorrow. I'd much rather see the Jays allocate $10 million to the draft and $75 million to the ML team than have a draft budget of $5 million (a typical year, this year it was $6.5 million with the extra picks) and an $85 million ML payroll.

The Jays were more than willing to commit at least $10 million/year for Lilly & Meche. And they're getting that kind of performance out of Marcum this year who they're paying about $400k. The entire draft in 2003 was probably $5 million in bonuses so the draft more than paid for itself with this one single season Marcum is having. And the Jays will have Marcum cheap next year and relatively cheap in his first two arbitration years. The Jays could conceivably have $30 million of savings from drafting Marcum up until his free agency. They're saving a lot of money having Aaron Hill too.

The Jays paid about $5 million for the entire draft class in 2003, they only had two players come out of it (I'm not counting Roberts, or Mastny for that matter) and yet it's still such a great return from their investment.

It takes so little for a draft pick to pay off. The teams that need to pour money into amateur players are the ones that are toeing Bud's silly draft slots and are worse off because of it.

Pistol - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:32 PM EDT (#173107) #

Speaking of which, I can't recall the Jays ever commenting on this. It's obvious that follow the draft slots for the most part (they had a couple late round picks signed last year over slot) but I've never really heard why.

Has anyone ever heard JP asked about this?

ayjackson - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#173109) #

I'm not an expert on the matter, but I tend to doubt there's much correlation between amount spent on the draft and value obtained from it (at least, above a floor level of spending). The draft is more about quality of scouting and luck than dollars spent. I would certainly doubt that doubling the budget from $5m to $10m would double the qualitly of talent obtained. That money may be better spent in the Caribbean, though.

Ron - Wednesday, August 15 2007 @ 11:08 PM EDT (#173111) #

Rather than asking why don't more teams exploit the draft and exceed the slot, a better question is perhaps why do teams follow the slot recommendation in the first place.

You don't lose draft picks or revenue sharing money by going over slot. Maybe teams get a special box of cookies. This whole slot mess is just as laughable as MLB driving down the slot recommendations by 10% this year. Last time I checked, MLB was swimming in cash so the 10% reduction looks really silly. Thankfully teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, Mariners, etc... ignored this.

Mike Green - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#173116) #

I absolutely agree with Pistol about the allocation of resources between draft and development and major league acquisitions. The Porcello contract does raise additional issues; giving a high school pitcher a major league contract does apply time pressures for their development which might not be advisable for the team (and may not be for the player).

Mike Green - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#173119) #

The Yankees' signing of Brackman, who is about to undergo TJ surgery, to a 4 year major league contract pushes risk-taking to the next level. To me, that has the feel of a sub-prime mortgage...

Jonathan - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#173135) #

4) 2002 - drafting Russ Adams (#14) ahead of Scott Kazmir (#15), Nick Swisher (#16), Cole Hamels (#17), Jeremy Guthrie (#22), Jeff Francoeur (#23), Joe Blanton (#24), and Matt Cain (#25).

Wow, I cringe reading this. '02 was an incredibly productive draft year and the pitching talent here in particular in boggling. Imagine the trading chip we would have today between our current crop of young P's and one of these guys if Adams had not been the man drafted.

John Northey - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#173142) #

Brackman being a college player is a bit better than a high schooler, but not a lot when you factor in he will miss all of next season with TJ surgery.

Of course, the surgery can be a big plus too, in the respect that the Yanks don't use an option up on him until he is recovered in 2009 (he'll be on the 60 day DL until then, no options needed to be used to send to AAA). So given he is 21 now...23 when an option is used, you have 3 options, he'll be 26 before he has to stay or go. If he isn't ready for at least a 6th man in the pen job by then odds are he'll never be more than a middle reliever/5th man in the rotation, and if that is all he will be the Yankees will have no interest in keeping him.

Manhattan Mike - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#173164) #

And don't forget the ripple effect that drafting Adams in 2002 had on the makeup of the Jays today.

If the Jays draft any of the outfielders, pitchers or corner infielders mentioned above instead of Adams in 2002, they leave themselves more open to the possibility of drafting Tulowitzki in 2005. Confident that he has a winning combination in Adams and Hill probably makes the middle infield less of a concern and leaves JP more reluctant to draft Tulowitzki in 2005, resulting in the selection of Ricky Romero. While I wish Ricky all the success in the world and hope he makes an impact for the Jays ASAP, there's more of a need at SS than there is at SP right now.

I'm obviously speculating, but I can't help but wonder 'what if?'

Ryan Day - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#173169) #

And if Gord Ash hadn't passed on Albert Pujols for 12 rounds, we'd have a Hall of Fame first baseman.

Adams obviously didn't work out, but he's not the utter waste of a pick he looks like now. Despite the fact he completely fell apart, he was regarded as a good major league player - if not a shortstop, then at least a second baseman. Look at what BA had to say about him here , here, or here.

MatO - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#173174) #

In Da Box draft discussions at the time, there was quite a bit of support for selecting Maybin instead of Romero but actually very little support for Tulowitzki. I know I didn't care for him at the time.

John Northey - Thursday, August 16 2007 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#173177) #

The what if game is always fun, but fairly useless if trying to judge a GM. Gillick skipped on guys like Dwight Gooden (Augie Schmidt) & Roger Clemens (Matt Stark - two horrid choices in two years), Ash on CC Sabathia (Felipe Lopez) & Eric Chavez (Billy Koch) & Bonderman (Gabe Gross), JP on ... well ... we've seen the list elsewhere on his evils :)

Each year in the draft a team spends $5-10 million in todays baseball dollars. For that in free agency you get a season of a decent starting pitcher or a solid everyday player. Adams provided a decent season at SS (87 OPS+ which looks darn good about now with McDonald at 63 and Clayton ending at 70) worth probably $2-3 million plus David Bush who provided the Jays with 40 cheap starts with an ERA+ over 100 before being used to get Overbay (value of those starts has to be $5-10 million alone).

I suspect, financially, the 2002 draft is close to break even (factoring in other costs for the minors in general). Hill & Marcum make the 2003 draft look darn good financially. Janssen/Lind/Thigpen should do the trick for 2004 being profitable as well, not factoring in the #1/2 picks (Purcey/Jackson).

I figure for draft value you factor in what the team saves in the players first 6 seasons, when they cannot get free agent money. Take net value (there are tools out there, it used to be about $2 million a win/10 runs, but now it looks closer to $3 million) minus what was spent on the player in payroll after draft day and if the amount left over can total what the Jays spent on draft day plus for a portion of the minor league cost then you are doing well.

FYI: Gillick drafts sucked, Ash did darn well but wasted lots of the cheap years, JP is a work in progress.

jgadfly - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#173192) #

Any news on whether the Jays were successful in signing 6th rounder Randy Boone or 22nd round selection Matt Thomson? Both seemed to have alot of upside.

MatO - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#173220) #

It doesn't appear that either Boone or Thompson signed. Boone was a 7th rounder.

Thomas - Friday, August 17 2007 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#173225) #

Cameron Maybin has been called up to the big leagues.

I'm sure even the strongest of Maybin supporters never saw him reaching the big leagues before Romero. I know I never did. He's the seventh of the top 10 picks of the 2005 draft to reach the bigs. The other two who have not are Jeff Clement (#3) and Wade Townsend (#8).

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