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As usual, the good guys' first series after the all-star break is a major gut check against an AL East team. That's normal. What's weird is that the Jays get to perform the checking of someone else's guts this time. The upstart Rays have lost seven straight games as they face actual pressure for the first time in franchise history. They'll look to bounce back by sending their big three starters to the hill at home, where they're 36-14 this year.

The Rays are still 55-39, 16 games over .500, which puts them 2.5 games ahead of Minnesota for the wild card. So it could be worse. But the big mo is not on their side, and whether the pressure of playing in a pennant race will crush them remains to be seen. Scott Kazmir wishes they wouldn't worry so much about the out of town scoreboard. "You see guys coming in right from playing on defense and they're like, 'What's the Boston score? What's the Boston score?' That's not how you're supposed to do it."

The Rays Index currently sits at 7.8, slightly below "They will be in playoff contention all season." That sounds... a bit pessimistic?

Tonight, it's Blue Jay killer James Shields, 3-0 with a B.J. Ryan meltdown and a 2.70 ERA in four career starts against Toronto. He's averaging just under 7 innings in those starts and holding Jay hitters to a .202/.248/.354 line.

Shields is basically a harder-throwing, more convincing-looking version of Shaun Marcum with less effective breaking balls. He's all about the sinker, cutter and the power changeup. His splits are, not surprisingly, small. The effectiveness of Shields' change has to do mostly with downward movement rather than velocity difference from the fastball. In that sense it's kind of like Marcum's, though Marcum's relies more extremely on movement and Shields' average fastball/change velocity differential (AFCVD?) is 8 mph to Marcum's 6, according to Fangraphs. If pitch fx is your thing, compare the fastballs and changes in Shields' horizontal/vertical graph with Marcum's (another power change guy) and Javier Vazquez's (a guy whose change kills hitters in the more traditional way - because it's 10-12 mph slower than the heater, not because of any movement.) There was a little discussion of changeup velocity dropoffs over at the Fangraphs blog the other day.

Shields may look like an inviting target for base thieves because of his high leg kick when he pitches from the windup, but they are actually only 22/37 against Shields all-time, and he has five pickoffs. He has three complete games, which ranks him second in the AL behind Doc. Looking over the Jays' career numbers against Shields, the pickings are slim. Two homers: Aaron Hill (injured) and Vernon Wells (injured). Take away Hill and Wells and the pickings get slimmer. So... bring it, AJ!

Tomorrow, it's Matt Garza. This is how you can tell Scott Kazmir has developed big-league command: Garza has replaced him as the official Best Stuff on the Staff Guy according to TV bullet-point scouting reports. Crazy as it may sound, they might be right. Check out Garza's pitch fx - if you're a hitter and you can't tell his slider and curve apart quickly out of his hand, it's not going to be a fun day and aggressive hacking may be the way to go.

As the graphs show, Garza has a really hard moving fastball around 93 which he throws often. I imagine he has trouble with Fastball Hitters, though for what it's worth he has no platoon splits. Hard slider in the mid-80s, curveball in the mid-70s which is like the slider with much more vertical break, occasional change of the non-dropping Vazquez variety. Johnny Mac's homered off Garza. Delmon Young is now .286/.330/.386 and his strikeout rate has fallen modestly. He turns 23 in September. Garza is 20 months older.

Sunday, it's The Ace: Scott Kazmir.

Due to the length of the All-Star Game, Kazmir's start was pushed back a day, depriving us of a matchup of very arguably the two best starters in baseball. Kazmir has lost his last two starts and hasn't posted a game score above 60 since June 6, but his peripheral stats have been consistent all year, so I'm not calling it a slump. Kazmir throws around 92 with the fastball, 82 with the late-breaking slider and 79 with the change. His change is much slower than usual this year, and it even has some vertical movement to it too, but that hasn't dented his 162-point career OPS split yet. He's held the high standard of lefty batting he's faced this year to a .206/.242/.286 line. I'd like to see a John McDonald start here. Mac is 5/16 against Kazmir - actually, he has really good numbers against all three Rays starters this weekend. And Lyle Overbay, defying the splits, is 4/12 with a walk. Kazmir isn't a soft-tossing cutter guy, which I suspect suits Overbay just fine.

Rays' bullpen, in two words or less: Time bomb. The overachievers have combined for a 6.98 WPA and 3.38 ERA in 274 innings over the first half. I have no faith in their ability to come anywhere near sustaining that performance the rest of the way.

The closer, Troy Percival, is a colossally huge flyball pitcher (18.6% GB) who runs deep counts and is currently on the 15-day DL with a hamstring injury but likely to be activated sometime this weekend, and apparently his running-out-of-the-bullpen anthem is by someone or something called "Godsmack," as far as I can tell, which isn't helping anyone. Not that the Jays lineup is particularly good at punishing flyball pitchers for their flyballs, but there are some teams in this division that are, most notably everyone else. Percy's BABIP is .197, which is actually not that farfetched given his obscene flyball rate, but it's yet another red flag. Percival has a 3.54 ERA, a 1.22 WPA and he's allowed only four homers in 28 innings. That will change.

When the Rays bring in lefty J.P. Howell in a tie game, you know they mean business. Howell's supposed to be the long guy, but he's easily the Rays' WPA leader with a 2.60, mostly because whenever there's a tie game in the late innings, Joe Maddon just sics him on the other team for as long as he feels like and watches them flail helplessly at Howell's sweeping breaking balls. Howell hasn't blown a game yet. He's 6-0. Howell looked like a prototypical AAAA pitcher heading into '08, failing in each of his three attempts at starting over the last three years, but working out of the pen has enabled him to add about 3 mph to his fastball and only helped to make his nasty breaking stuff nastier.

Dan Wheeler is an OK setup guy with awesome stats due to his .174 BABIP. Al Reyes returns from the DL this weekend. He's been out for a month with shoulder tendinitis, but at least he doesn't have to worry about the ceramic pot bar fight Taser incident anymore. Aussie righty Grant Balfour blows hitters away with fastballs, has a 38.4% K rate, and should probably be given the closer's role if Percival collapses in the second half. And Trever Miller is getting lefties out (.200/.293/.260).

The Rays will get the services of Jason Bartlett back at some point this weekend. Bartlett is not the best offensive shortstop ever, but the Rays blamed some of their struggles on his injury, since they missed his defensive range. Bartlett is also an excellent baserunner, but his injury is a right knee sprain, so he may not be at full speed if he returns right away. For now, tall switch-hitter Ben Zobrist remains on the roster as the starting shortstop. Zobrist has hit three homers in his very short stay in the majors. I would not be shocked to see his career high in homers turn out to be 3. Since he doesn't really do anything better than Bartlett, he's probably the guy who will be sent down when Bartlett returns.

In his last 25 at-bats, Carl Crawford is 0-25. I'd walk him intentionally every time if he weren't 33/34 stealing bases against the Jays since 2005. Meanwhile, B.J. Upton is still on track to become an underrated star. He has a .384 OBP and 27 stolen bases as the Rays' #3 hitter, while improving his walk and strikeout rates from last year. His power has vanished, but he's only 23. If it returns, watch out.

Dioner Navarro has hit like a really slow version of Johnny Damon this year. Who doesn't love a singles-hitting catcher with a line-drive stroke who puts tons of balls in play? Somehow, he's only grounded into nine double plays this year.

And MC Hammer is giving a free postgame concert after Saturday's game, so he can give a rousing rendition of "2 Legit 2 Quit" as the losing streak hits 9. Or something.

The Credit Section: All offensive stats, pitches per PA for pitchers and league average stats are from the Hardball Times. Pitchers' stats and leverage indices are from Fangraphs. Minor-league stats are from Minor League Splits and First Inning. K% and BB% are strikeouts and walks as a percentage of plate appearances; GB% + LD% + FB% = 100.


Advance Scout: Rays, July 18-20 | 44 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#189019) #
I guess the question is "do you believe in momentum?". It sure would have been nice to have Marcum match up against Kazmir on Sunday...

The Dude is having an even better season than I realized. 

John Northey - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#189020) #
Curious to see AJ get two starts in a row (Sunday and Friday) although it does make sense as that puts him back on normal rest.  Halladay pushed back to Saturday, giving him 3 off days since the ASG (those 9 pitches must've been tiring). 

It is Sunday that is most curious.  Parrish, the recent AAA callup getting the call over Litsch.  Litsch faced TB twice earlier in the season and gave up 5 runs in 3 innings the first time, then 3 over 7 the next.  Parrish faced Baltimore last time out so I guess Cito felt it best to keep Parrish from facing the same team twice and to give Litsch a chance to face Baltimore for the first time this season.  Hopefully it all works.

Alex Obal - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#189021) #
Interesting...

Throw a lefty at Baltimore and you get: Markakis, Huff, Fahey, (Millar) and 1 switch hitter
Throw a lefty at Tampa and you get: Iwamura, Crawford, Pena, Hinske/Gross/Floyd and 1 switch hitter

So we're gonna need a tiebreaker. The Rays are #1 in the AL (and majors) in stolen bases with 101. The O's are 7th in the AL with 58. Parrish is a lefty and picked a guy off last time. Maybe that's it? Especially when you factor in not wanting him to face the same team twice in a row.
zeppelinkm - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#189022) #

The Dude has more HR and RBI then any Jay this year. (Not that's exactly saying a whole lot, but it does say something). Oh, and he's way ahead of any Jay in OPS+ too.

Will he sustain it?

Mike Green - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#189023) #
You can certainly justify Parrish over Litsch.  Carl Crawford is arguably the engine of the Rays.  He (and the club) have been struggling.  Parrish is more likely to keep him down than Litsch.

Alternatively, the Rays as a team have hit better against RHP this year; the O's as a team have hit better against LHP this year.

92-93 - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#189024) #
Is there any chance, after Marcum's first rehab start yesterday, that the team lets him start Tuesday night in Baltimore so they don't need to call up a 5th starter? Perhaps last night showed the brass he's feeling good and that it would be a better option to have him throw his 65-70 pitches at the MLB level than calling up Davis or playing ping-pong with Purcey again.
The_Game - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#189026) #

"You see guys coming in right from playing on defense and they're like, 'What's the Boston score? What's the Boston score?' That's not how you're supposed to do it."

Eric Hinske?

Magpie - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#189028) #
Eric Hinske?

That would be weird, seeing as how he's the only guy in the lineup who's actually played for a contender.

But youneverknow. Most managers do discourage scoreboard watching. But Earl Weaver used to actively encourage it, and would often pick out some scoreboard hero on some out of town team that his Orioles would spend the night cheering for...
peiscooter - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#189034) #

It is Sunday that is most curious.  Parrish, the recent AAA callup getting the call .

The first thing I thought of when I saw that Parrish was being moved forward so as not to face Baltimore on Monday, was that Purcey may be getting the Tuesday start and they didn't want to throw two consecutive lefties.  Possible?

 

Thomas - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#189036) #
Possible?

It's possible, but I think the main reason was to control the Tampa running game, as has been mentioned above. Plus, the Jays have said, IIRC, that they don't want to promote Purcey for another quick one-and-done start, so if the team needs a starter Tuesday and Marcum's not ready, I think it will be Tallet or a different arm from Triple-A.
Mike Green - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#189038) #
Cito is running out an unconventional batting order against Shields, with Overbay, Rolen, Wilkerson and Lind hitting 6-7-8-9. 
Anders - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#189040) #
Kazmir is pushed back to Monday. Edwin Jackson gets the start on Sunday.
jmoney - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#189042) #

Yick what a boring game. Offense was terrible and AJ the mental midget serves up a game winning homer to Zobrist!!??

Matt Stairs looks worse out there then Frank Thomas did at any point for the Jays.

Mike Green - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#189043) #
I'll take "career years for weak-hitting shortstops" for $200, Alex. :)
Alex Obal - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 09:55 PM EDT (#189044) #
Dropped him in the BBFL figuring my regular shortstop Bartlett might be back today. Mocked him relentlessly through his first two at-bats. Should've known.

I'd like to see Scutaro out of the 2-hole.
92-93 - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#189045) #
I think most people would like to see Scutaro out of the two hole, but since Cito took over he was hitting .297/.358/.378 into the break. Scott Rolen can't be very happy batting 7th, and it's a little ridiculous seeing as he's the team best hitter. Part of his problems with TLR were over his spot in the order. And it's time for Adam Lind to move up.
The_Game - Friday, July 18 2008 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#189046) #
Actually, I think Lind is probably the team's best hitter. Look at his overall numbers now, he has the highest OPS for anybody in the starting lineup today. And if you take away what he did in his first callup, he is quite a bit ahead of all of them. Too bad he's getting the fewest at bats.
GregD - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#189057) #
I totally agree. Scutaro should not be hitting 2nd.
AWeb - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#189058) #
On a non-game note, I still can't stand watching the Tampa Bay games on TV, even without that heckler of past years (I didn't hear him during my check-ins). The camera is too far away and at an odd angle, and the lighting is terrible (all my opinion, of course). Has anyone been in that park? Is it really as dark as the TV feed makes it look?
MondesiRules - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#189070) #
Subscribe to HD...
The_Game - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#189078) #

Scutaro continues to actually play, and Lind continues to hit #9.

Oh well.

Smithers - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#189080) #
Hadn't seen it posted yet, but it appears that Canadian pitcher Adam Loewen of Baltimore is calling it quits for his pitching career.  The good news for him is that he's intending on returning to the majors as an outfielder, a la Rick Ankiel.  Hopefully he can pull it off without the HGH!

http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080719.wspt-orioles19/GSStory/GlobeSportsBaseball/home

The_Game - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#189082) #
I liked it better when the Jays atleast beat the Rays half the time.
King Ryan - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#189084) #
What an absolutely  ridiculous inning that was.  A bouncer that goes over Rolen's head.  A bunt where the call at first could have gone either way.  A pop-up bloop that fell into the Bermuda triangle.  A swinging bunt that went foul but was called fair, and then a grand slam.

Talk about an inning that went a completely different way in an alternate universe.

Mike Green - Saturday, July 19 2008 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#189085) #
The Iwamura at-bat with Zobrist on 1st and nobody out was very important.  Zobrist had reached on a Baltimore chop over Rolen's head.  Rance Mulliniks said right away, "he's going to bunt".  Rolen was playing pretty deep, perhaps because of the chop, and Iwamura laid down a nice bunt in front of him and reached base (he was clearly safe on the replay).

If Roy Halladay has one flaw as a pitcher, it is that he cannot field bunts effectively.  With that in mind, and the game scoreless in the sixth (and Garza having thrown a one-hitter to that point), Rolen should have, in my view, been playing further in.  Rolen is terrific coming in, but in that game situation, you actually want to discourage the bunt attempt, so that all that can be achieved is a sacrifice.

China fan - Sunday, July 20 2008 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#189096) #
Lind's fans will be happy -- he is batting 7th today, and already has an RBI in the second inning.  Rolen has been moved up to 6th in the batting order.  Of course this is partly because McDonald is starting at SS and clearly has to bat 9th in the lineup, while Zaun is the starting catcher and logically should bat 8th in the lineup.  But it still might foreshadow a higher regular slot in the batting order for Lind in the future.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 20 2008 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#189098) #
Sometimes things break right.  Down 4-3, Rios threw out Gomes at the plate on a close play, and that set the tone for the rest of the game.  It wasn't Rios' best throw, but it was accurate, Zaun did a nice job of blocking the plate and Jonny Gomes showed that he's not a great baserunner.
Rob - Sunday, July 20 2008 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#189102) #
Eric Hinske strikes me as the kind of guy who would jog in from right field, where the out of town scoreboards are, and ask someone in the dugout about the Boston score.

(Note: I post that after he goes 0-for against Toronto.)
Rob - Sunday, July 20 2008 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#189103) #
Jonny Gomes showed that he's not a great baserunner

Barfield had a good line today about Gomes having "good range" and "not hurting you with his glove." I'm not sure Jesse knows the difference between Jonny Gomes and Johnny Rotten.
Thomas - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 06:50 AM EDT (#189112) #
It's a shame we can't combine Barajas' arm with Zaun's ability to block the plate, because then you'd have a very fine defensive catcher.
Magpie - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 07:17 AM EDT (#189113) #
Barfield had a good line today about Gomes having "good range" and "not hurting you with his glove."

He said that? Wow. I am speechless.

Maybe he meant that Gomes takes such bizarre routes to the ball that if he didn't have good range he wouldn't be able to catch anything.
Magpie - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 07:19 AM EDT (#189114) #
I post that after he goes 0-for against Toronto.

A wise precaution. I commend you for it.
GregJP - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#189138) #
So let me get this straight.  If your team has a 5 run lead you can no longer try to get on base and score more runs.  That is completely and utterly retarded.  Somebody should throw a ball at Gaston's head and see how he likes it.

All of this Cito adoration in Toronto is really irritating.  So he was the manager of a team that won 2 titles.  Big freaking deal.  He had two very good teams that just happened to win back to back playoff lotteries despite him sitting on his ass looking like he was in a coma.

Bob "freaking" Brenly won a world series, and he was probably one of the worst managers in the history of the game.
Mike Green - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#189141) #
So let me get this straight.  If your team has a 5 run lead you can no longer try to get on base and score more runs.  That is completely and utterly retarded.  Somebody should throw a ball at Gaston's head and see how he likes it.

All of this Cito adoration in Toronto is really irritating.  So he was the manager of a team that won 2 titles.  Big freaking deal.  He had two very good teams that just happened to win back to back playoff lotteries despite him sitting on his ass looking like he was in a coma.

Two very different thoughts there.  Bunting for a base hit with a 5 run lead is perfectly OK in my book, and doesn't merit a brush-back or worse. 

On the other hand, what Cito accomplished in the early 90s with the Jays isn't that easy.  It's not just the 2 World Series wins, but the 1989 comeback and the 1991 divisional title.  And the Jays of 89-93 didn't quite have the talent that the Big Red Machine did.  No one is saying that he is a brilliant tactician or an innovator or anything of that sort.  He is however a good manager of men. 
GregJP - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#189149) #
He is however a good manager of men.

There have been many "good managers of men" in baseball history who never got close to winning a world series.  It takes good players performing at a high level to win a championship, and who the manager is has very little to do with it.

I guess Clint Hurdle just isn't as good a manager of men as he was last year.


Mike Green - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#189152) #
It takes good players performing at a high level to win a championship, and who the manager is has very little to do with it.

Jimy Williams says hello.
Thomas - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#189154) #
All of this Cito adoration in Toronto is really irritating.  So he was the manager of a team that won 2 titles.  Big freaking deal.  He had two very good teams that just happened to win back to back playoff lotteries despite him sitting on his ass looking like he was in a coma.

For shame, Cito. If only you had run around the dugout, slapping people on the buts and run onto the field and thrown a few bases we would know you were a good manager. That's how I knew Llyod McClendon was great at his job.
John Northey - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#189156) #
For managers it would be nice if there was a method of measurement that took team quality out of it, ala how we have ERA and HR-BB-SO ratios for pitchers rather than just W-L record.  If we measure pitchers like we do managers then, for example, Steve Carlton was a great pitcher in '82 with a 23-11 record and a bad on in '83 with a 15-16 record even though his ERA+ was almost the same those years (119 vs 116 - guess he forgot 'how to win' in that off-season).

Pre-Cito we had the 'fun' of watching Jimy Williams bench Cecil Fielder in favor of Cliff Johnson & Willie Upshaw in '86 and beyond, play Garth Iorg (44 OPS+) over anything still breathing in '87, then the whole Bell to DH mess in '88, followed by the horrid start to '89 (played a second baseman as DH opening day due to a fear of not having enough outfielders in case one of Bell/Moseby/Barfield got hurt - yes, that was the logic stated by Williams in an interview that day). Brrr... Gaston had his oddities but there is no mistaking that under him we saw 4 playoff teams in 5 years - pre-wildcard - and 2 WS titles.  Talent or not, that is a killer record.  Of course, the team fell apart in '94-97.  '94/95 being in large part due to the team needing to restock after a great run (rare to go a decade plus over 500).  The '96 team had a horrid bench (95 the best OPS+ there, no kids on the bench who ever developed) and great pen (the 5 most used relievers all over 115 in ERA+).  Sadly in '96 he had to use Marty Janzen for 11 starts (to justify the Cone deal, ERA+ of 68).  '97 saw Shannon Stewart hit well and given a shot when called up in August (played 18 of 21 games, starting all 18 of those before what I guess was an injury after September 3rd) and his playing time matches Cito's method with Lind - put the kid in if he is on the team and see what happens.  Sadly in '97 we saw a horrid 2B situation where all the guys with 20+ innings played (4 of them) stink with the bat (all below 50 for OPS+ - the highest at 47 played far more than the others) plus Robert Person (81 ERA+) given 22 starts in the rotation. Surprisingly Marty Janzen was effective in relief that year with a 126 ERA+ but he never threw another pitch in the majors (poor BB-SO ratio and sucked in AAA).

Looking back at 96/97 I don't see much that Cito could've done different with the players he was given.  More playing time for Green, demanding to get a real second baseman, throwing Ash off the roof of Skydome for not calling up Stewart a heck of a lot quicker?  These teams had major, major holes that Ash didn't come close to filling, and outside of giving an extra 20 games to Green in '97 and playing Olerud more in '96 I don't see much he could've done with those rosters given how those guys played both then and later on.  Carter batting somewhere other than 3/4/5 would've been good too, but looking at those teams I see a lot fewer options than I remembered.  Compared to Williams who drove us all nuts with his weird choices and Cito looks pretty darn good with few quality guys benched for crap outside of his platooning of Green & parital platooning of Olerud.

GregJP - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#189157) #
It's strange how Cito went from "managing men so well" up to 1993 to a 257-321 record over the following four years.  After those four years of "great managing" he was out of baseball for more than 10 years.

As far as Jimy Williams, he'd be about 587585765th on the list of guys I'd want managing a major league team.  Comparing Gaston to someone like that doesn't really add much to this discussion.

CeeBee - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#189171) #

"As far as Jimy Williams, he'd be about 587585765th on the list of guys I'd want managing a major league team.  Comparing Gaston to someone like that doesn't really add much to this discussion."

I take it you like Jimy Williams even less than you like Cito.

Thomas - Monday, July 21 2008 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#189174) #
Comparing Gaston to someone like that doesn't really add much to this discussion.

Strange, neither do blanket statements about Cito's lack of ability based on no evidence.
China fan - Tuesday, July 22 2008 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#189189) #
 I think we should hire GregJP to manage the Blue Jays, since it's clear that every previous Jay manager was stupider than he is.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 22 2008 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#189207) #
As I mentioned above, using just W-L record to measure a manager is like using it to measure a pitcher.  Too many factors he has little or no control over (what players are on the roster, drafted, traded for, freak injuries) are factored in.

To measure a manager you should (imo) look at the following...
  • Did players have career seasons with him
  • Did the most talented players play the most
  • Did young players develop or die off under him
  • Were starters pushed until they broke?
  • Did the bullpen get used effectively or ineffectively (ie: closer used when really needed, switches done to maximize wins rather than looking like they are done just to satisfy the media)
So, what happened under Cito from 89 to 97?
  • hitters who flopped elsewhere who did well here
    • Devon White: 4 full years in Anaheim with OPS+ in order of 99-94-85-79, looking like a defense only guy, only once being lower in OBP than his best year in Anaheim while playing in Toronto, his Slg% here was higher every season than all but one of his seasons in Anaheim.  Had his top 2 years in OPS+ here as well.
    • Candy Maldonado: OPS+ his two half seasons and one full season were 123-124-121 vs a career of 107, all from age 30 and up.
    • Kelly Gruber - 2 AS games OPS+ of 123+127 then the neck injury took over and his playing time dropped as his stats dropped
    • Pat Borders - had a 120 OPS+ season somehow, useful catcher
    • Roberto Alomar - developed from solid young second baseman (OPS+ around 100) to hall of famer (lowest OPS+ was 109, 2 points better than his best in 3 years in SD) - he did have better years later but showed that if his team wasn't winning he wasn't playing
    • Joe Carter had 4 of his top 6 seasons in OPS+ with Cito at the helm, despite being age 31 and up while here and coming off an 85 OPS+ season. He did flop from 95-97 once the Jays moved from winners to losers, but he also was 35+ thus well past his prime, he was Cito's biggest blind spot but there really wasn't as much to play ahead of him as I thought at the time.
    • Mike Huff had a 117 OPS+ and got lots of playing time in '94 then collapsed to a 77 (closer to his real level) and saw his time drop until he was pure bench
    • Molitor had his 3rd best season at age 36, 5th best at age 37 under Cito, two of his top 3 in Runs Created per Game.
  • I showed above how he generally played the best guys he had available, even when Ash provided crap and slightly less stinky crap
  • Young guys given first shot at full time play under Cito: Olerud, Delgado, Sprague, Guzman, Hentgen, Timlin, Woody Williams (moved from minors to pen to effective starter with ERA+ of 99 or better every season), Al Leiter (from injury prone to star to free agent), Alex Gonzalez, Shawn Green, Jeff Kent, Shannon Stewart Chris Carpenter, Escobar, and a few others who never had the skill to make it (Tomas Perez for example).
  • Starters who broke: few of them - Guzman collapsed after a few great years, any others? 
  • Bullpen: Made full use of the Henke/Ward combo, but pushed Ward too far too long (although if he didn't we might not have back to back titles).  Tried an assortment to replace them, from Darrin Hall to Escobar.

Was Cito perfect?  Heck no.  But he certainly knew (and appears to still know) how to separate the good players from the bad and that is a top skill.  He didn't blow out arms other than Ward's.  Rarely did a poor performing player get to play over a skilled one, with the exception of the platooning of Olerud and Green which, in both cases, an argument can be made that it was the right move at the time plus his blind spot on Carter towards the end.  I'd easily rank Cito, from what I can see, as being a top manager. 

GregJP - Tuesday, July 22 2008 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#189226) #
  • Did players have career seasons with him
  • Did young players develop or die off under him
I really appreciate the thought and effort you put into the previous post, but I'm not 100% convinced that the two criteria I've listed above are in any significant way influenced by the manager.

Players will have career years and develop or not more as a result of their individual circumstances IMO.  I agree that the manager needs to give the player actual playing time, but beyond that I don't know.
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