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One roster move for the Blue Jays before tonight's game. With Scott Downs nursing a tender ankle, Brian Tallet has been activated off the DL. Scott Richmond has been optioned back to Syracuse. (Fixed the link!)

Oh, did somebody's head just explode? Cool.


The Jays also confirmed what has long been apparent - Aaron Hill is done for the year.

The Rays continue to cruise, even without Longoria and Crawford. Boston, just 3.5 back, is obviously still within striking distance. The Red Sox have the comfort of knowing they've got the Wild Card to fall back on. However it's possible that the mysterious Minnesota Twins may have made the biggest upgrade for the stretch of any team in the majors. If that's the same Francisco Liriano that terrorized AL hitters two years ago back in their rotation, they will be a handful.

It's looking more and more like Yankee Stadium is not going to get the glorious send-off many of us had expected. It's looking more and more likely that the Bombers will close out their home schedule against the Orioles on September 21, and then the House That Ruth Built will sit silent and empty as the Yankees head off for one last road trip, and play out the string. Probably not the way they drew it up, but things have changed. Last night they lost to Kansas City when Mariano Rivera threw a wild pitch in the ninth inning. It's a brave new world we live in.

The Twins are currently in a dead heat atop the Central with the White Sox. It's a curious team. Only the Blue Jays have hit fewer homers than the Twins. The main difference between the two offenses is that the Twins hit singles, the Blue Jays draw walks. Twins have hit 7 more doubles, 6 more triples, 3 more home runs - that's enough to account for a few more runs, not a lot. The Twins have hit 77 more singles than the Blue Jays, while drawing 63 fewer walks. And so the two teams have basically identical OBPs, and the Twins have an edge in SLG (.416 to .384).

The Twins, of course, are the best team in the AL at hitting with runners in scoring position (the Jays are 13th); they're essentially tied with the Red Sox for having the best offense in "Close and Late" situations (Toronto is down around 11th place.) It helps to account for how they can be 10th in the league in SLG, 8th in OBP and still be sixth (and essentially tied for fourth) in actual runs scored.



16 August: News of the World | 15 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
6-4-3 - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#190751) #

The main difference between the two offenses is that the Twins hit singles, the Blue Jays draw walks.

That's not really fair to the Twins.  According to OPS+, the Twins offense is average and the Jays offense is well below average.  The Twins don't score many runs at home, but they're third best in the AL in road runs/game, so it looks like their offense is just being depressed by the Metrodome.  Also, the he Twins have two big boppers in the M&M boys, the Jays have no-one who is remotely close to Mauer or Morneau. 

Magpie - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#190752) #
  According to OPS+

Which is a measure to evaluate offensive production, and place it in context. The context in which these things happens tells us a whole lot about the individuals responsible. That the Twins have hit only 86 home runs is partially because their park works against them, and that the Jays have been boosted to 83 because their park works for them is indeed something we want to know. But I was simply counting things.  What struck me here were the components of the team's offenses. They're very similar, except for that one thing. (And the GDPs, I guess - the Jays have hit into 118, the Twins 97.) The salient issue for me is that they've actually hit essentially the same number of home runs, not why it's happened.

So the main difference remains - the Twins hit singles, the Jays draw walks. It's as simple as that. And the Twins score lots more runs. And I don't think you'd expect such a wide divergence in runs scored from these two fairly similar set of offensive elements.

6-4-3 - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#190755) #
But I don't think the singles vs walks is the main difference. Even ignoring the fact that the Twins have a more talented offense with more superstars and more players who are clearly above average, the Twins hit a lot better with men on. With RISP, the Twins hit .314/.387/.463, compared to the Jays line of .244/.337/.365. With men on, the Twins hit .299/.367/.447, the Jays hit .255/.334/.379. So even if their total lines are relatively even, the Twins hit much better when it counts, and the Jays don't. Maybe it's luck, but given those numbers, it's not surprising that the Twins have scored more runs in the season.
Magpie - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#190756) #
the Twins hit much better when it counts

Which is exactly what I said. I refer you to my final paragraph!
TamRa - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#190757) #
Even ignoring the fact that the Twins have a more talented offense with more superstars and more players who are clearly above average

The WHAT now?

Morneau is right on his career average in OPS at .882, we don't have a hitter like that (though if Rolen was on his career numbers he'd be right there with him but factoring age and stuff I won't argue the point).

Ditto Mauer, who's mid .850s numbers are just what you'd expect - albeit that's exactly what Rios was supposed to be doing this year (and possibly better).

Their third best hitter? Jason Kubel - .806...that's not as good as Lind has been this year though he has the benifit of having been on the team all year. And less than what a normal Overbay year should be.

Fourth? Delmon Yong at .745, Wells is 30 points higher.

Fifth is Harris at .705, and there are no less than SEVEN other Jays who play regularly better than that.

More talented offense? Not on your life. Two very good players, one pretty good player, and a bunch of mediocre to bad players.


6-4-3 - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#190761) #

I said that the Twins have a more talented offense now. 

Rolen's career numbers are meaningless, what Rios was supposed to be doing this year is meaningless, what Lind might've done had he been on the team all year is meaningless, what a normal Overbay season would look like is, well, you get the point.

The Twins have outproduced the Jays at the following positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Left Field, Right Field, DH.  Third is a wash.  The Jays have an advantage at Short and Centre.   Twins offense is average, the Jays is well below average. 

Two very good players, one pretty good player, and a bunch of mediocre to bad players.

Can JP trade for that?   If the Jays had the Twins collection of mediocre to bad players (and two MVP candidates, mind you), they would be a lot more competative than they were this year.

scottt - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#190762) #
I had a feeling Doc could use an extra day.

It's hard to feel sorry for the Yankees knowing they'll be outspending everybody this winter. They managed to win 3-2 in 13 innings. KC had recalled Jeff Fulchino from AAA to throw the 13th. An ERA of 9.0 out of the pen is never a good thing.

Will we see Pavano in September? Why not? He comes off the book at the end of the year. Is Mussina a free agent this winter? He's certainly having a contract year.






Magpie - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#190763) #
I said that the Twins have a more talented offense now.

Maybe, but I don't care (well I suppose I do care but it's not my point.) My point is that the Twins talented players, possibly because they've been held back by the confines of the Metrodome, have hit 86 home runs - no more, no less. And Toronto's collection of bozos have hit 83 home runs. And so on and so forth.

The Twins have actually hit better at home than on the road this year by roughly the same margin that the Jays have hit better at home. But I don't care about that, either, for the moment. Not my point.
6-4-3 - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#190764) #
<P>That's odd, I could've sworn I used the reply to this feature (and the quote, too) to indicate that I was replying to WillRain. </P>
<P>It might just be fatigue dulling my brain, but I'm not sure what your point is anymore. Is it that the Twins have succeeded in scoring runs without the longball, while the Jays have failed to do so? There's really no mystery in that once you look at the situational splits. The Twins rake with runners on, the Jays don't. </P>
TamRa - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#190765) #
The Twins have outproduced the Jays at the following positions: Catcher, First Base, Second Base, Left Field, Right Field, DH.  Third is a wash.  The Jays have an advantage at Short and Centre.   Twins offense is average, the Jays is well below average.

Barajas v. Mauer
Not gonna quote stats - conceded


Overbay v. Morneau
Ditto

Inglett v. Casilla

I:  .293 - .348 - .419 - .767
C: .313 - .351 - .424 - .775

How is this in the Twins favor?

Eckstien v. Harris

E: .274 - .355 - .359 - .713
H: .262 - .319 - .386 - ..705


Yes, Cito won't play Eck but he's as good as Harris so lack of talent on the team is not an issue here.

Rolen/Scutero  v. Lamb

R: .242 - .349 - .401 - .750
S: .255 - .341 - .325 - .666
L: .236 - .271 - .326 - .579

This is a wash?

Lind v. Young

L: .295 - .333 - .500 - .833
Y: .292 - .338 - .408 - .746

That's NOT advantage Twins

Wells v. Gomez

W: .289 - .326 - .451 - .776
G: .252 - 288 - .340 - .628

Spread between Wells and Gomez = .148, spread between Overbay and Morneau = .115

Rios v. Cuddyer

R: .280 - .328 - .419 . 747
C: ..252 - .324 - .376 - .700

Yes, the kid is doing better than Cuddyer did, in a relatively small span but that doesn't explain a full season of more success by the team.

Stairs v. Kubel

S: .248 - .340 - .397 - .737
K: .269 - .332 - .474 - .806


Twins win - C, 1B, DH
Jays win: CF, 3B
wash 2b, SS

also a wash: LF+RF (i.e. Lind and Sapan are about even, Young and Rios are about even)

Wells in CF cancels out Morneau at 1b (in terms of amount of advantage) and our 3B advantage cancels their DH advantage.

That leaves them better at catcher.



Magpie's initial analysis is still valid, IMO.

The idea that the Twins have a much better offense, is not credible. They have gotten somewhat better production out of a largely healthy lineup, but not strikingly better.


TamRa - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#190766) #
The Twins rake with runners on, the Jays don't.

Which was part of the original analysis and not something I took issue with.

THAT is obvious. The part I took issue with , not so much.

Magpie - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 10:44 PM EDT (#190767) #
One more time?

Well, 6-4-3 and Will and disagreeing on how to evaluate the two offenses. Which is interesting - it's just not what I'm doing. I have no judgements - just the observation that the two teams have done very similar things at the plate this season, with the most significant difference being the Twins tendency to hit a single whereas the Blue Jays use about the same number of  ABs to draw walks. Otherwise the two offenses do basically the same thing. They hit about the same number of doubles and homers, they get about the same number of people on base.

The Twins have plated a whole lot more runs, however. As I noted in the post, and as 6-4-3 also observed, the Twins have hit way better than the Jays with runners on. It's probably a one-year fluke, and they haven't done it every year. But they have this year, and in 2008  it's probably the single biggest difference between the two offenses. And it probably means nothing at all going forward.

And that's when it's time to start talking about evaluating the various bits that make up the offense. Take it away, guys!
Magpie - Saturday, August 16 2008 @ 11:29 PM EDT (#190769) #
One other thing about the Twins. I know baseball-ref.com regards the Metrodome as a pitcher's park. I don't know how they came to that conclusion, and I have very little interest in finding out because whatever method they're using - I ain't buying it. Any methodology, whatever it is, that describes the Metrodome as a pitcher's park loses me.

It's true that  in 2007 the Twins scored and allowed 654 runs at their Dome, 740 in their road games. But the Twins have played 26 seasons at the HubieDome. More runs have been scored in Minnesota's home games than in their road games in 21 of those seasons. Coming into this season, there had been 1154 more runs scored in the Twins' home games than in their road games. Which is a lot. It's one of the top half dozen or so parks in the majors in terms of having a positive impact on runs scored.

Anyway, it makes me think that 2007 was just some massive fluke. I'm thinking maybe the air-conditioning switch got stuck...

At any rate, things are back to normal this year. The Twins have scored and allowed 605 runs at home, 559 on the road.
christaylor - Sunday, August 17 2008 @ 03:05 AM EDT (#190771) #
It has been a while since I've looked but at one time or another the Jays, in terms of runs scored or other (significant) aspects of their offense have looked similar to the Angels (if I recall correctly the Angels had pretty much the same Runs scored as the Jays sometime in late June), Rays (similar in Runs scored not too long ago) and now, the Twins.

My point (and I don't really have a well formed one given the time of day and state I'm in) is that when looking at the Jays offense, the notion that this team needs a piece or two more on offense looks credible. However, unless that piece is a serious upgrade (ie Teixera, Manny) or a major upgrade along with a pitcher that is an upgrade on AJ (I'd really love to see Sheets here)... I think myself and many other fans won't be too excited going into 2009.

I know much of what's wrong with the Jays that's happen this year is due to luck, but watching them much of the season it doesn't feel that way. Lind will help. Rios should rebound. Hill will help. DH should be easy to fill. Wells shouldn't miss over 2 months. Even still, I bought this bill of goods last season... I don't want to buy it again going into 2009.

I just can't see this offense, even adding a slight;u above average DH, a SS who can hit as well as Eckstein (OPS+ 92 or above average for SS) but field, and PECOTA projections for Rios, Wells, Overbay and Hill being good enough to win the division - barring as much good luck next year as the team has had bad. Another way of saying this there's no way that this team will look like a playoff team going into 2009, despite a strong pitching staff (albeit one significantly weakened by the loss of McGowan).

The only way out of this quagmire is to throw big contracts at SS (Furcal?), DH (Manny?) and SP (Sheets?)... the Jays then would look like a playoff team, but I doubt Rogers will open the vaults now, when the money is really needed.

If this this team ain't going to compete next year... it is probably time to think about rebuilding around people like Snider, Arencibia, Cecil, Lind and an aging Rios... and some guy named Wells who'll never live up to his contract. This all seems depressing and I count myself as someone who likes what JP has put on the field. It comes up short as a team with a league average payroll and no cheap young superstars is going to be average.

TamRa - Sunday, August 17 2008 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#190791) #
I think when a team fails reasonable expectations as completely as this one has, it's quite difficult to lay aside subjective feelings and trust dispassionate analysis.

I DO think that going after Manyy (or in lu of that Giambi) is pretty much a given, but I don't see this "perfect storm" of freakish underperformance by good hitters happening again.

Rolen, even if he's never what he once was, would still be a perfectly good league-average 3B with the bat and sterling defense, if he can be managed well enough to stay on the field. An asset to any team as a #6,7 hitter.

Rios, one would think, can surely get a measure of his HR power back but in the owrst case, if he doesn't, he's still got most of the skills of a modern-day leadoff hitter (and few lead-off hitters get on base as much as they should any more)

a full year of a healthy Wells helps, a 2007 edition of Hill is huge. A full season of Lind is a big difference. The one guy I don't know what to make of is Overbay. I no longer can project he'll go back to resembling what we saw in 2006. But if your lineup is:

Rios
Hill
Lind
Ramirez
Wells
Overbay
Rolen
Barajas
Scutero

or, knowing Cito

Scutero
Hill
Rios
Ramirez
Wells
Lind
Rolen
Overbay
Barajas

in either case you can carry a high-700s Overbay (and Rolen) and still be a good enough offense to win with our pitching.
And that's before we talk about upgrading the SS position.


16 August: News of the World | 15 comments | Create New Account
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