Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - Maybe Mike Green Is Onto Something

Just one win down on the farm yesterday. The affiliates were 1-4 on the night with NH getting the day off.

Rochester 7 at Syracuse 1

The Chiefs managed just 7 singles in this one. Adams and Lydon had 2 each.

Brian Wolfe had an unsuccessful start, giving up 4 runs on 10 hits and a walk in 3.1 innings.

New Hampshire - Day Off

Lakeland 7 at Dunedin 1

This game was similar to the Chiefs game as the DJays managed just 7 hits and 1 run. David Cooper had two of the hits, including a double.

Kenny Rodriguez gave up 5 runs (2 earned) in 4 innings. He struck out 5 and walked 3.

Dayton 2 at Lansing 3

CJ Ebarb had a 3-3 game with 2 doubles and a walk.

The Nuts got good pitching performances all around. Letko started and went 4 innings giving up 2 runs (1 earned). Edgar Estanga came in and threw three one hit innings striking out 4. Frank Gailey pitched the final two innings to pick up the win.

Jamestown 4 at Auburn 1

Mike Green favorite Joel Collins went 3-4 with two doubles. He's hitting .355/.444/.598 for the Doubledays. The rest of the team went 3-27.

Joel Carreno pitched 6 innings, giving up 4 runs. He struck out 8 and walked none.

GCL Jays 5 at GCL Yankees 6

The Jays had two 4 hit games in this one, by Kenny Wilson and Brad McElroy. Jon Talley was 2-2 with a walk. Kyle Gilligan also had 2 hits.

3 Stars!:
3 - Joel Collins
2 - Kenny Wilson
1 - Brad McElroy

Posted by Pistol on Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:35 AM EDT.

Maybe Mike Green Is Onto Something | 27 comments | Create New Account

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John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#191292) #

So, where are we at with the top hitting prospects? Checking Baseball-Reference and listing overall season stats including all levels played at...
CA: JP Arencibia - 299/322/537, Jeroloman - 261/386/385 - combine them and you got a star hitting 299/386/537 or a flop hitting 261/322/385
1B: Cooper - 327/395/496, Dopirak - 310/375/561 - Dopirak better hurry up and impress next spring training cause Cooper is charging hard
2B: Campbell - 314/411/448, Bradley Emaus (22 in A+) 300/377/456 - hadn't noticed Emaus but he's put together a solid season and could be a surprise next year
3B: Aherns - 252/318/350 in low A, Balbino Fuenmayor 309/363/463 in rookie ball at 18 years old - no wonder the Jays wanted more depth
SS: Justin Jackson - 243/346/377 in low A, a few guys in rookie ball with high OBP but no power - see 3B
OF: Snider- 275/358/478, not much else jumping out at me

So we have quality guys at 1B/2B/OF (although I'd like to see more OF'ers around) but a big time hole at 3B and SS.

jerjapan - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#191295) #

John, I agree, there is great depth at 1b, 2b, C and also I think some quality pitching depth - although not as many high end / power starting pitchers as I'd like to see - but that's always been Riccardi's modus operandi (reasonably polished quantity over potentially high-end quality, see who develops ala Marcum / Litsch), and I can't really quibble with his track record developing pitchers ...

However, who, other than Snider, do you see as an OF prospect? Some recent draft picks (Eiland and Wilson) haven't shone in the low minors, some guys may project as bench players (Coats, Smith) and there are still a few toolsy projects. Who were you thinking of?

And while the system is, offensively, much improved in recent years, I am concerned to see that, other than catcher, the talent is at the low end of the defensive spectrum. We need serious help at SS / 3B.

Maldoff - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#191298) #

Remember that for OF, Lind would have been considered a prospect up until 2 months ago. He still is young and should be in that conversation.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#191299) #

I don't think it would be reasonable to expect Eiland, or especially Wilson to tear through the minors just yet. Give them time.

But regardless of their status I don't think that we need to be targetting OF specifically as we look to improve our farm. I think that the strategy should be to add 3B, SS, 2B to the fold going forward because you can frequently convert them to OF if need be (see Upton, BJ).

FisherCat - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#191300) #

Bradley Emaus (22 in A+) 300/377/456 - hadn't noticed Emaus but he's put together a solid season and could be a surprise next year

Isn't the general consensus that the jump to AA from Hi-A is the toughest jump in all of pro ball?

John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 11:13 AM EDT (#191302) #

Agreed that counting on Emaus would be a mistake, but he was the next best at 2B and caught my eye when I was looking through the stat lines. Also agreed that A+ to AA is the biggest jump outside of reaching the majors.

Baseball Cube has his college stats as well - decent OBP near 400, slugging in the 400's too. Last year in Auburn he had troubles learning pro ball (228/298/316) but seems to be getting the hang of it this year. Next year will tell the tale for Emaus. An 11th round pick (355th overall) he'd be a nice surprise if he made it. When guys like him make it, the scouts look good as he'd be a pure scout pick.

Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#191303) #

I won't hold my breath on Emaus until I see success at Hi-A translate into success at AA. Carlo Cota & Ryan Roberts Hi-A 2005 come to mind as guys that had promising stats in Rookie and Hi-A only to struggle at AA & beyond.

Fair point, but Emaus is two years younger than those guys were in Dunedin. And he's a bit ahead of Scott Campbell, who was in Lansing at the same age.

MatO - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#191304) #

The difference is that Emaus is 2 1/2 years younger than Roberts was and his defence is good according to a recent report. I don't think there is any set level that is tougher. Every player is different. Campbell went from low A to AA and hit far better. Anyways, Emaus looks like he's a legitimate prospect at this point.

FisherCat - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#191305) #

Anyone seen Emaus in the flesh? I'm just wondering if he could be moved to SS. Don't know if his range or arm would transition over there well.

But I'm just envisioning that maybe in 2009, Kiwi Campbell is 2B @ AAA, and groom Emaus as SS at A+/AA with Chris Gutierrez taking the bulk of 2B duties at AA. Just a thought...

J Ges - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#191307) #

So we have quality guys at 1B/2B/OF (although I'd like to see more OF'ers around) but a big time hole at 3B and SS.

Ahrens just turned 19, Jackson & Fuenmayor are still 18. They aren't fully physically developed yet. The "big time hole" assesment might be a tad rash.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#191308) #

The "big time hole" at SS and 3B was more talking about the next few years. Ahrens, Jackson, and Fuenmayor are at least 2 more full seasons away from a cup of coffee, and that is if they are rushed through the system. 3-4 more full seasons in the minors is more likely plus a year of playing peak-a-boo with the majors ala Lind (up, down, up, down, ...) and at rookie ball and low A ball it is extremely hard to predict what is going to happen.

Ideally a system has a full team of prospects at every level, with AAA ready to step into the majors the following year. This never happens of course as no team can keep that many top prospects around long term. Thus I'd love to see the team have a guy who can play SS/2B , someone who can play 3B/1B, and outfielder and a catcher at AA/AAA who are ready for the majors or will be within a season plus another batch like that in the lower minors working their way up. Mix in a batch of pitching prospects (as the Jays do have) and you are set. The Jays are close, but missing the SS/3B part of the equation in the upper minors. Thus the value of having Inglett/Scutaro/Bautista who can cover every position at a reasonable level until someone better comes along.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#191309) #

Just noticed a site that is doing estimates of who will be a type A or type B free agent.

Greg Zaun is marginal - last slot for catchers for type B (below gets no compensation). Barajas is just below the line with Redmond and Napoli between them and Laird just above.
Brad Wilkerson and Kevin Mench are no compensation free agents no matter what at this point.

As for ex-Jays, Frank Thomas is a no-compensation guy (shocking eh?) as is Eric Hinske. Delgado is just barely a B (3rd from bottom) thus wouldn't cost a pick (just give a sandwich to the Mets).

No listing for pitchers yet so we can't see where AJ is at the moment. Still, it would be cool to get a pick out of Zaun leaving, plus it makes it even more likely that the Jays would keep Barajas over Zaun (cheaper and gain a sandwich pick).

Lucky - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#191310) #

Just curious --- why would players like Coats and Smith only be considered "bench players"? What do you base that on? Certainly not stats!

J Ges - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#191312) #

It's ironic that when the Jays were focusing on drafting college players who were closer to the Majors or organizational depth, many fans complained that there were no potential 5-tool prospects in the system because most college draftees have warts (as per Moneyball [which Ricciardi doesn't follow of course]). Now that the Jays have established their original plan they've shifted their draft focus to HS position players & other long term prospects with potentially much higher upside than the college players.

John Northey - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#191313) #

Coats and Smith are bench players due to age more than anything.

Coats is 26 and in his 3rd year of AAA ball with OPS over those 3 years of 718-805-768. Given AAA to major normally costs a guy 5% of his offense (at least) those would translate (roughly) to 682-765-730 or if you prefer the 2008 versions of Zaun-20 points less than Rios-Barajas. Thus his peak is worse than a bad Rios season, his more likely is what one would expect from a defense first catcher. Decent for a 4th/5th outfielder perhaps but no more than that. Mix in age and his projection would drop further.

A 27 year old Smith in AA is unlikely to be more than a bench player as if he had the skill set to be a ML regular he'd be there already or at least in AAA fighting for an MVP award. Now, Smith is hitting well in AAA at this point, going 302/422/509 over 18 games but those are his first 18 games above AA. His AA lifetime numbers are 267/346/483 for a 829 OPS. Using the 5% per level rule of thumb that translates into a 748 OPS in the majors. Like Coats he could be useful but nothing special unless he finally figured it all out late in his age 27 season - more likely he is just having a hot couple of weeks. A 20 year old doing this (Snider) could still make progress in the majors but a 27 year old is who he is and isn't likely to gain any more skills, just start to lose them.

FisherCat - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#191317) #

From the totally irrelevent & useless information file...

Recently acquired Fisher Cats pitcher, Jason Burch, has the distinction of being part of a trade that involved arguably the greatest Canadian baseball player:

(as stated in the Fisher Cats game notes for 8/26/08)

*Traded by Cardinals to Rockies 8/7/04 along with two other minor leaguers for Larry Walker and 9-million dollars

MatO - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#191318) #

Speaking of prospects hitting the wall, what happened to rumoured Blue Jay pick Matt Antonelli? He's barely above the Mendoza line in AAA after being a top prospect after last season. His BABIP looks rather low though.

whiterasta80 - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#191319) #

Holy crap... I'd figure injury on the basis of the drop, plus his SB totals are down. But at the same time he has over 400 plate appearances, why would any organization allow a top prospect to continue playing hurt over a whole season?

If he's not hurt, then we should be looking to buy low and take a chance. If he is, then he should have been pulled off the field a long time ago.

peiscooter - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#191325) #

While we're talking about prospects (that apparently aren't) doesn't Lydon finally deserve a look at least. JP obvviously doesn't like speed.

wacker - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#191326) #

talley promoted to lansing

Ozzieball - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#191328) #

Have you considered that JP doesn't like Lydon because Lydon is terrible?

He has a translated line of 213/288/263 with a spectacular EQA of .209

MatO - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#191329) #

I think Johnny Mac may have more power than Lydon. That's s scary.

scottt - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#191331) #

Mench down, Rolen up. I didn't see that one coming.

J. Inglett in left field - M. Scutaro at second - J. Bautista at third - Lind to bench.

So far, Bautista has looked decent at 3B, if nothing else.

brent - Tuesday, August 26 2008 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#191332) #

Accardo to see Dr. Andrews and is shut down for the year according to the Jays' homepage.

ComebyDeanChance - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 12:11 AM EDT (#191337) #

The mention of Frank Thomas in John's post is the first we've heard of him in a while here. The alleged blunder of releasing Thomas, after he'd refused to go on the field to shake hands, has resulted in our missing out on his .167/.278/.214 post-all star break performance. I suspect in addition to his .492 OPS, we'd be getting the benefit of hearing him complain about the team either avoiding or not-exercising his option.

Lucky - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#191345) #

Thanks, John Northey, for answering my question. However, I still believe Coats and Smith could be regulars if given the chance. From what I have seen, that is the key---given the chance. Smith is back in AA after performing extremely well in the 18 games he got in while at AAA. According to the announcers for the Fisher Cats, Smith was sent back simply to get more playing time, not because he wasn't good enough or performing well enough at AAA. While he was there, so was Mench, Coats, Lydon, and Adams was playing strictly outfield. So obviously, Adams didn't sit much and neither did Lydon or Coats, and they had a bunch of infielders that were used to DH. Anyway, I think it was obvious that Smith could perform well there and even in the majors. He was injured in spring training and played when he probably shouldn't have (a turned ankle with a bone chip) and when he played at Dunedin, he said in an interview that it really affected his play. Considering this, he has improved all year. He has a limited number of at bats compared to Arenbicia and Snider with 352 at bats total from all levels. Arencibia has 493 and Snider 481. Comparing stats with comparable at bat numbers, he is doing as well as anyone on the AAA team or AA team. He seems to have maintained a good outlook even with the adversity of injury and being slated for AAA at the end of spring training, then having to work his way back through the organization, only to be shunted at AAA. As soon as Snider went to AAA, Adams went to 2nd base to allow him plenty of playing time, unlike the treatment Smith got. Yes, I know Snider is a franchise player, and he is good for his age. But Smith deserved better this year after winning the Webster award last year.

And, yes, he is one of my favorite players. We have seen him play, and he runs well, can play any outfield position, hit for average and power and has a good arm, yet is always overlooked in the organization and by the bloggers! As you can tell, I always root for the underdog!

As for Coats, he is in the same boat, except he has gotten to play major league ball in the past, which makes his "resume" more appealing. I don't know how good players that are not on the radar are ever expected to get major league playing time if they are continuously overlooked and held back.

John Northey - Wednesday, August 27 2008 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#191352) #

Lucky, good points on the outfield situation. Mench is gone after this year and I suspect at least one of Coats/Lydon/Adams will be as well, maybe all of them due to the number of guys charging up behind them in the minors (might be for the best too for those guys given the Rios/Wells/Lind major league show plus Snider being next in line).

The Jays should, if they are still in the system (some might be minor league free agents) keep Smith/Coats/Adams in AAA with Snider as well mixed between DH/OF I think with Adams getting infield time as well. Lydon will be 28 and his only big asset is his speed which is the first thing to go normally - best if he heads off to an NL team where he might get a shot. Butler might move to AAA as well as could others.

I figure once the minor league season is over someone here should go through the minors and figure out who is a minor league free agent, who isn't, who moves to AAA/AA/A+, who will probably get released, who might be the Carlson for the 2009 Jays, etc.

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