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Las Vegas finally get good pitching from the starter and the relievers in the same game and win a game in the land of the delta blues.  New Hampshire lost despite two more hits by Brad Emaus.  Lansing split a doubleheader with the win coming on another good start by Henderson Alvarez.

Winning in Memphis
Winning with my feet ten feet off of Beale
Winning in Memphis
But do I really feel the way I feel

Las Vegas 3  Memphis 1

Las Vegas started the game with three straight hits by Buck Coats (double), Howie Clark and Randy Ruiz but JP Arencibia hit into a double play and Vegas had to settle for two runs.  Dirk Hayhurst started and pitched well for 6.1 innings, he gave up just one run, a home run, on six hits with no walks.

In the eight Coats again doubled and Clark singled him home.  Bryan Bullington relieved Hayhurst and pitched 1.2 hitless innings.  Accardo pitched the ninth for the save.  Vegas had seven hits, the first three hitters, Coats, Clark and Ruiz had two each.

New Hampshire 2  Connecticut 4 

New Hampshire took the lead in the second inning, Sean Shoffit walked, stole second and scored on an error.  Luis Perez gave up a solo home run in the fourth to tie the game.  The Fisher Cats took the lead again in the sixth, Brian Jeroloman and Cody Haerther walked, Al Quintana doubled to score one but Haerther was thrown out at the plate.  In the bottom of the inning Perez loaded the bases with one out.  He got the double play ball but Brad Emaus on the back-end threw away the ball to allow the second run to score and put the Cats down 3-2.  Perez and Polanco gave up another run in the seventh and that's how it ended.

New Hampshire had only five hits, Brad Emaus had two of them.

Dunedin at Tampa - postponed

Lansing 5  South Bend 1 - game 1

Lansing jumped out to a 2-0 lead in the first.  Tyler Pastornicky singled and stole second and scored on a double by Mark Sobolewski.  Later Mike McDae doubled to make it 2-0.  In the third Pastornicky walked, stole second, went to third on an error, and scored on another error.  A hit by pitch put two on and Jon Talley singled in a run and Justin McClanahan did the same and it was 5-0.  Henderson Alvarez started and pitched 5.2 shutout innings allowing four hits with five K's.  Sobolewski was the only hitter with two hits.

Lansing 5  South Bend 6 - game 2

John Anderson had a tough start, he pitched five innings but gave up six runs on eleven hits.  Balbino Fuenmayor hit a solo home run in the third but after three the Lugnuts were losing 6-1.  In the fourth inning Justim McClanahan hit a two run home run.  In the fifth Kenny Wilson led off with a walk and went to second on a single by Pastornicky.  After a ground out moved up the runners Mike McDade singled in both runs to put the Lugnuts down 6-5.  The Lugnuts had runners in scoring position in both the sixth and seventh innings but couldn't get a run in.  Balbino had three hits to raise his average to .241.

3 star selection

3rd star - Dirk Hayhurst
2nd star - Buck Coats
1st star - Henderson Alvarez

Winning In Memphis | 15 comments | Create New Account
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92-93 - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 12:14 AM EDT (#200001) #
I didn't realize Hayhurst was a starter, I thought when he was signed in the offseason people were talking about him as a potential relief candidate, even for this year.

Nice to see Accardo come right back with a solid outing the night after blowing the save.

His K numbers are underwhelming, but I'd like to hear a good scouting report on Henderson Alvarez. He seems to have very good control, because although the K rate is low, he rarely walks anyone and the K:BB is excellent. Peripherals aside, I'm impressed by a 19 year old that can take the ball every 5 days in Lansing and be consistently effective.
Mike Green - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#200007) #
With the draft coming and shortstop being a long-term organizational need, here is a listing of some shortstop prospects who may be available and of interest. The article was written in February;  there probably have been a couple of position changes/injuries since.
Jdog - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#200008) #
Im guessing the Jays go with pitching with their first pick in the upcoming draft, despite having a lot of young candidates for the MLB rotation, there is lack of good pitching prospects below AA. This years draft crop is also supposedly pitching heavy.
ayjackson - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#200011) #

A college pitcher is probably the last thing the Jays need in the first round of the draft, but that seems to be where the value is this year.  I think bats, especially prep bats are the way to go at #20 in a normal year.

I'd like to see some HS pitching targetted in rounds 1supp through 3.


Mike Green - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#200012) #
LeMahieu is an LSU shortstop from Visalia.  Hmm.
timpinder - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#200013) #
Speaking of shortstops, and I apologize if I've missed it elsewhere, but where's Justin Jackson?
davidcanavan - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#200014) #

I have no problem with the Jays taking a college arm at #20 as long as it is an arm with big upside. James Paxton, a Canadian, and Andrew Oliver, are two arms that I both like, and just for JP they are both lefties. I'd like to see at least two high upside high school arms mixed into those five picks in the first three rounds. Some high school outfielders with power potential, and a power third base bat would be nice in the 5-10 rounds along with more high risk/ high reward pitching.

We have nice depth of pitching in the high minors, and lots of position players with upside but every few polished ones in the low minors. I don't care either way if JP takes high school or college arms, but he needs to be looking for guys with top three rotation spot potential. We have enough middle of the rotation and bullpen pitching, we need to start taking some chances and developing some studs

John Northey - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#200022) #

Just remember how fast the success rate goes down in the draft.

All time guys with 100+ home runs per pick (ie: 1st overall, 2nd overall, ...)

1: 15
2: 8
3: 8
4: 7 (just 1 over 200)
5: 4
6: 7 (includes Bonds, Shefffield)
7: 4 (just one over 200)
8: 5
9: 4
10: 10 (McGwire, none since 2000 have reached 25)
100: 1 (just 5 have hit a HR)
200: 1 (just 4 have hit a HR)
300: 0 (just 5 have made the majors, 1 with over 2 HR round 10 equivalent)
1000: 0 with just 2 reaching the majors, Tony Gwynn Jr and Carl Sadler (pitcher for 42 games)

Interesting.  Would prefer checking by round but don't see an easy way of doing that at baseball reference.

Mike Green - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#200029) #
That list overstates things a little, John.  Teams do not pick relief pitchers or middle infielders with little power but other skills with the first overall pick. They do that much more often as you proceed down. Generally, the first overall pick will be a starting pitcher with ace potential or a position player with at least average power (like Joe Mauer). 

Still, your overall point is right.  If you have a first rounder and a supplemental, you probably want to get a good player with one of those and one other good player in the draft.  So for instance, in 2004, the Jays drafted Purcey, Zach Jackson, Thigpen, Lind, Danny Hill, Casey Janssen with early round picks and Jesse Litsch in the 24th round.  Jackson was part of the package for Overbay.  Lind looks like an excellent bet to be a good contributor for at least the next 4 years.  There are pretty good odds that one of Purcey, Janssen or Litsch will be a very useful for a few years.  That qualifies as a good draft.

MatO - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 03:55 PM EDT (#200031) #

There were 42 pitchers taken among the 80 top ten picks between 1995 and 2002 in the June draft.  We should have a good idea as to whether these pitchers will ever amount to much by now.  Of the 42 pitchers I would say that 29 of them turned out to be marginal players or complete stiffs.  If you narrow it to 2000 to 2002 drafts, of the  20 pitchers taken top ten, 16 would be considered failures.  I always laugh when comments are made about taking these high upside pitchers later in the draft when the success rate amongst the high picks is so awful.  We should be counting our blessings when competent major league pitchers come out of the draft as the Jays have had.

John Northey - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#200036) #

Jay pitchers in the first round...
Halladay: 138 wins
Carpenter: 101 wins
Cerutti: 49 wins
Karsay: 32 wins 41 saves
Koch: 29 wins 163 saves
McGowan: 20 wins
6 others reached majors and had under 5 wins, 3 others never reached, plus Romero and Cecil.
So, the Jays have drafted 17 pitchers in the first round with 3 who are big successes (Halladay/Carpenter/Koch), 2 solid guys (Cerutti/Karsay) and 3 who are still active in the majors in McGowan/Romero/Cecil plus we have Trystan Magnuson and David Purcey who have shots still at being good (Zach Jackson has spent time in Clevelands pen this year).

For hitters we have the 1000 game club... (5)
Green, Moseby, Stewart, Wells, Sprague

The 500 game club... (3)
Felipe Lopez, Rios, Hill

The 100+ game club... (3)
Gross, Adams, Witt

The still potential club... (5)
Snider, Cooper, Aherns, JPA, Justin Jackson

And the 'dang' club... (14 members)
Joe Lawrence, Zosky, Stark, Augie Schmidt, etc.

So round 1 has been good for the Jays, but not great (the biggest weakness of Gillick in the 80's).

Round 2?
Derek Bell = only guy with 1000+ games played.  Craig Wilson the only other one over 500.  Tim Hyers & Ron Sheppard are the only other ones over 100.  14 never made it.
Pitchers?  David Wells (239 wins), David Bush (45 wins), Tim Crabtree (342 games in relief), Brandon League (116 games) then no one else with 7+ wins or 70 games in the majors (3 pitchers total).  4 pitchers never made it with none still kicking I suspect (most recent is from 1994).

Round 3?
A bit better for hitters.  John Olerud, Greg Myers both over 1000 games plus Chris Stynes over 500, Adam Lind & Felipe Crespo over 200, then 2 guys with a total of 16 ML games between them and 7 who never made it.
Pitchers?  Jimmy Key, David Weathers, Shaun Marcum, and 4 others who won 32 and had 0 saves between them.  12 who never pitched in the majors.

It is interesting to look at.  Also points out how hard it is to find a gem by the 3rd round but that it can be done (Olerud was a guy no one thought would sign).

greenfrog - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#200049) #
Brad Emaus made Baseball America's weekly Prospect Hot List (#13 of 13). He hit 385/500/769 for the week. Here's part of the blurb:

One season after ranking sixth in the Florida State League in extra-base hits, Emaus ranks second in the EL in that category this year—but first in doubles (12) and hits (42). A converted third baseman, his bat is his ticket to the big leagues, and his manager, Gary Cathcart, applauds his ability to "hit a lot of pitches, even out of zone."
ayjackson - Friday, May 15 2009 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#200050) #
Justin Jackson went 5 for 6 in a double dip for Dunedin today.  Kevin Ahrens went 4 for 6 with a walk.
Mike Green - Saturday, May 16 2009 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#200057) #
Fabio Castro may not have made BA's Hot Prospect List but he definitely has been hot, including another 8 inning gem for Las Vegas last night.  Arencibia hit a 3 run rip to ice the victory for the 51s.
Gerry - Saturday, May 16 2009 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#200061) #

Some quick notes from Friday's games:  Las Vegas won 8-1 behind a strong start from Fabio Castro who pitched eight innings of three hit ball.  He walked two and struck-out five and lowered his AAA ERA to 1.03.  Brett Harper, JP Arencibia, Buck Coats and Kyle Phillips each hit home runs.

New Hampshire won 6-2 as Marc Rzepczynski pitched 5.1 innings and gave up two runs, one earned.  Zep lowered his ERA to 2.93.

Dunedin lost game one of the doubleheader 3-2 as Tim Collins took the loss.  The FSL plays a concentrated schedule and this is the second appearance in a row against Tampa where Collins has allowed two runs.  It will be interesting to see what happens over the next month.  If Collins can't pitch well against Tampa it might suggest that Collins can be handled once teams figure him out.  I don't see it but it bears watching.  Kevin Ahrens and Justin Jackson had three hits each, a very encouraging sign.

Tampa won game two of the doubleheader 5-4 despite Dunedin outhitting Tampa 9-6.  Nate Starner gave up one hit through four innings but gave up four hits and a walk, and five runs in the fifth.  The last two runs scored on an error by Ahrens.  Jackson had two more hits, Ahrens one and Tolisano two. 

Lansing were rained out.

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