I'll go with:

1.  Jason Frasor
2.  Juan Rivera
3.  Octavio Dotel
4.  Jesse Litsch
5.  Jon Rauch

Litsch is a triple-threat: he could be traded high (i.e. he does well & is traded); traded low (falters & no room for him); or reinjured.  I imagine AA will be more likely to trade Frasor now that Frasor has demonstrated a willingness to accept arbitration.

If the player suffers a season-ending injury, would they not still be a Blue Jay? I'm confused why you consider injuries to be equivalent to trades or releases, but don't count demotions. Shouldn't either both demotions and injuries count or not count?

Anyhow...assuming injuries do not count...
1. Juan Rivera
2. Octavio Dotel
3. Jo-Jo Reyes
4. Shawn Camp
5. Jesse Litsch

Rivera - trade or release
Dotel - trade, always seems to move around
Reyes, Zep OR Litsch - trade, for a surrsingly good return
MAYBE Roenicke but only as an add on to another deal, not alone

McCoy - still in the system, but through waivers to AAA (thus off the 40 man)
MAYBE Encarnacion, if Thames twists their arm.

I could see a package of EE and Roenicke for something pretty good and young enough to not be on the 40 after the season. I could see one of those SP being dealt for something really nice only because of the logjam - but that only if everyone else stays so healthy that Zep (presumably) is losing value in AAA

Rivera
Litsch
Camp
Lind
Perez
Janssen

or maybe none of the above .. I don't really have a clue who Alex will trade, release, or keep. In fact at this point in time I bet Alex doesn't either :)

MAYBE Encarnacion, if Thames twists their arm.

In the homerun thread, you have EE in with 27 dingers this year. Why would the Blue Jays dump a guy who's going to hit 27 dingers and who is dirt cheap ($3million to keep for 2012)?

Well, the number of home runs isn't always a good proxy for offensive value. Last year, Aaron Hill hit 26 HR and had an OPS of 665 (OPS+ of 79).

In any case, the time to trade a player is when his market value is high, not when he's going to net you the equivalent of Scott Wiggins in return.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wiggisc01.shtml

In the homerun thread, you have EE in with 27 dingers this year.

Holy sh1t.  CBDC is auditing predictions to ensure they`re consistent.  Never knew that was a requirement.

An interesting article by Larry Millson today makes the case that Encarnacion has turned it around, since being unceremoniously dumped last year.  The article describes him as having a new attitude, more work and commitment, better conditioning, less weight, better timing at the plate, and fully recovered from past injuries.  This probably falls into the category of "unbridled spring optimism" but I'm willing to buy into the scenario, for now at least.

This probably falls into the category of "unbridled spring optimism"

Larry's been around too long for that.

     Edwin Encarnacion got hurt, and forever lost value in the eyes of too many people.  Upon return from waivers, he played better, he hit better and defended better, but to some, that did not matter http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml .  In the Off-season, E. E. found he wasn't wanted by anyone, at his perceived value.  With Christmas coming, he signs a very team-friendly contract with an equally friendly option http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/toronto-blue-jays_05.html .

     To have sufficient value  to be traded, E.E. must have a good first half.  All indications, this spring, suggest E.E. will do just that, and stay heathier than in the past.  If he's hitting well enough to be traded, isn't he hitting well enough to keep?   He's 28 this year, young enough to be worth keeping if he hits like I think he will.

     What do you look for in a D.H.?  The ability to play an on-field position helps (so playing two positions is better).  I think he'll hit enough to keep long-term.

If he's hitting well enough to be traded, isn't he hitting well enough to keep?

That is just so blindingly sensible....

To put it another way... well, yeah. DUH! In the era of the four man bench, he can cover at least two positions. His contract is hardly going to cripple you. The best thing about having assets is you can actually use them on the field to help you win.

EE has apparently been impressing with his glove at 1B, and it seems like Farrell has taken a shine to the guy already, and was quoted as saying that getting EE more games in at 3B this spring is a priority.

In a BP thread earlier this year, I suggested EE as perhaps the best candidate to be this year's Jose Bautista. He's more or less in his prime, has big-time power, and walks a fair bit. Obviously, his plate discipline would need to take a quantum leap ahead just to get close to Bautista territory, but he could open some eyes in 2011.

In the homerun thread, you have EE in with 27 dingers this year. Why would the Blue Jays dump a guy who's going to hit 27 dingers and who is dirt cheap ($3million to keep for 2012)?

I said "MAYBE" and in all-caps at that, should i have bolded it? Note for the record i did not use or imply the word "dump"

In any case, the "maybe" means "if they get a chance to get a really good young player from a team who needs his power down the stretch AND at the same time feel that Thames is so ready he can step in and hit well in the majors.

If there's anything we know about AA, it's that he's not afraid to turn a good asset into a great prospect if the chance arises. Why would you find it surprising that he might make such a deal on July 31?

Of course, the 27 homers was predicated on the assumption he'd be here all year - it seemed unnecessarily complex to start figuring in unpredictable events into that game.

feel that Thames is so ready

Eric Thames? That's so two weeks ago....

Thames this spring: .239/.327/.435
David Cooper: .375/.405/.563

Not to be a downer, but Gabe Gross hit eight home runs in spring training 2005. He went on to hit 250/324/348 with one HR that year in 102 PA.

It's weird. You would think that spring training stats mean something, but apparently they don't. Sort of like the "lost 15 lbs / in the best shape of my life" stories. On the other hand, I'm glad EE is healthy and was able to train properly this off-season.

Eric Thames? That's so two weeks ago....

Thames this spring: .239/.327/.435
David Cooper: .375/.405/.563

Against better pitching too?  In too weeks we`ll be singing the praises of Adam Loewen!

Regardless, I`m expecting to see some impressive, though park inflated numbers in Vegas this spring.

Holy sh1t.  CBDC is auditing predictions to ensure they`re consistent.  Never knew that was a requirement.

Sorry for the snide remark.  Let me rephrase to say that of all the possible outcomes for EE this season, a 27 homer season and an early release or trade could easily be two of the more likely.

Gregor Chisholm has just tweeted that Rzepczynski is out of the race for a starting rotation job.  He's been told that he'll compete for a bullpen job.

Interesting.  I wonder if this allows Reyes back into the contest for a starting job?  We'll see how he does in his 6-inning stint against the Yankees this week.  I'm still inclined to think that the most likely scenario is Reyes in the bullpen and Zep in the Las Vegas rotation.  But if Litsch or Drabek falter at all, and if the Jays braintrust believe that Litsch or Drabek could benefit from a month or two in Las Vegas, we could see Reyes in the rotation and Zep in the bullpen on opening day.

By the way, on the question of spring-training stats:  of course they don't matter for veterans who are guaranteed to make the team.  But when there's clearly a fierce competition going on for certain spots in the rotation or the bullpen, you can't entirely dismiss the spring-training stats.  When there's a 3-way competition among three young pitchers (Litsch, Drabek, Reyes) for 2 spots in the rotation, their pitching numbers have to count for something, even if they're not always the final determining factor.

This is a question with many uncertainties. Below are my picks with some kind of reasoning, based on how I think AA thinks. Also I am quite prepared for any criticism.

I completely agree with TamRa, and everyone else about EE. I am not sitting on the fence either. I predicted 40+ Hr & will add 100+Rbi but I don't know where he hits to achieve this or if it matters. IMO AA values the FA Comp draft picks, if they still exist in 2012. S Downs is 2 picks in the 2011 draft. Nobody wanted him at AA's price if he was even shopped. At the July 31st trade deadline if a J Rivera TYPE (FA) is having a good season IMO AA will trade for that player & pay the remaining $ value on the contract. There is a 2012 option on Dotel & Rauch. If Rauch is good enough to get Comp picks IMO AA keeps him & declines the option or only trades him for something of more value. If Rauch is not good enough for Comp picks at the end of 2011 then the option is picked up (it's cheap) but only IF Rauch looks like he can bounce back in 2012 in a role that does not disrupt the teams chances to make the playoffs. I don't know how to evaluate the success level that a potential FA would need to get Comp picks. Also the cost of Arb is a risk that has to also be evaluated, but ST release is still available as a "hanging sword". IMO S Camp is a FA in 2012 so I will keep him because I think he will be worth picks. J Roenicke is my 1st off the 40 man because he may not get a ML opportunity in 2011 and could be out of options. Purcey/Reyes could make the Opening day roster to avoid being lost, then they have to pitch well to stay on the ML team. As underachievers they may even pass waivers. I don't expect all of Francisco, Rauch, Dotel, Fraser & Camp to pitch well and it seems obvious that you don't win with a weak bullpen, but I don't know how AA will handle this.

J Roenicke
Reyes
Purcey
J MacDonald traded to a contender
McCoy off to make room for a good but not ready prospect that must remain on the 40 man.

Lawrie eventually makes the team & is 2B backup. I don't see us as a 96 win team in 2011, so good prospects like Gose, Stewart & H Alvarez will not be traded for a finishing piece.

Someone in the pen will be the first to fall just due to raw numbers. After that I'd look at EE and Rivera as both have the ability to get off to a strong start and draw attention from potential bidders as well as having the potential to collapse and be released if someone in the minors is pushing hard for a promotion.

As far as the bullpen goes, a spot may be opening up.  Frank Francisco is apparently going for an appointment with Dr. James Andrews on Tuesday to have his shoulder examined.  That has an ominous ring to it.  Let's hope he finds no serious problem.

Litsch had a great start today - 5 1/3 innings with 7 K's, 0BB's and 0 runs allowed.  Now, with Rzepczynski a reliever, the question is Drabek or Reyes for the 5th spot.  They're both getting one more shot to make an impression this week.  If Francisco and Dotel both start the season on the DL, it makes it easier to keep Reyes by slotting him into a relief spot.  If Dotel is OK, but Francisco isn't, they would have to send either Janssen or Villanueva to LV to open a spot for Reyes in the pen.  That would leave them with Litsch and Drabek in the 4/5 spots and a pen of Rausch, Dotel, Frasor, Camp, Purcey, Reyes and Janssen/Villanueva.  Or Reyes is the 5th starter and both Janssen and Villanueva make it, with Drabek starting in LV.

As far as players on the roster who won't finish the season with team - how about:

• Rivera
• Frasor
• Dotel
• McCoy
• Patterson

Arencibia may be a candidate, too.  Wilner says he's not worried about him.  Maybe he's right.  Maybe. 

Eric Thames? That's so two weeks ago....

Didn't say he WAS - said if they think he is 4 months from now. Which i expect they won't given how slowly the promote hitters now...just said IF

I will choose the regular suspects - Francisco, Dotel, Frasor and Rauch.

The Jay have a log jam of talented arms in the minors.  If Litsch become servicable to someone who needs arms, he will be traded.

I am going to predict something bold.  Aaron Hill is traded.

BTW, I like the chances of EE bouncing back.  Last year, when he was sent down to AAA, I think that smartened him up and he was playing better until injuries got the better of him.

Now, with Rzepczynski a reliever,

The fact that he isn't going to be a starter (for the Jays) doesn't automatically make him a reliever with the big club for 2011. Both in terms of putting the best guys available in the pen for this season, and for the more important issue of Zep's long-term developement, I'm not sure that him starting the season as a reliever in Toronto is the best, or most likely, outcome...

the question is Drabek or Reyes for the 5th spot.

From what I've read lately, I thought this was settled, wth Drabek in the rotation, and the only remaining (until now) battle on the starting staff being Litsch/Zep. Might be wrong, though.

To the question of who will be departing, if all of the top arms in the bullpen are healthy and productive (i.e. as long as they have any reasonable trade value), I can't imagine that we make it through the season without at least two of them being traded. Rivera is a prime candidate as well, obviously. Count me among the EE non-believers; if he gets off to a semi-decent start, I am all for selling high. As for Litsch, who has been mentioned above a couple of times, I really hope AA holds on to him. I don't feel that the Jays are, or should be, in long-term, KC-esque, rebuilding mode; I think this team can contend seriously in 2012 or 2013 at the latest, and if Litsch is all the way back from his injury (which seems to me to be the case), he's a guy who I think can be a valuable part of the rotation the next time the Jays are fighting for a postseason berth.